Risk of Esophageal Cancer in Achalasia: A Matched Cohort Study Using the Nationwide Veterans Affairs Achalasia Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Achalasia is a postulated risk factor of esophageal cancer (EC); however, EC-associated risk in achalasia is understudied. We aimed to evaluate EC risk among individuals within the nationwide Veterans Affairs Achalasia Cohort. METHODS: We conducted a matched cohort study among US veterans aged 18 years or older from 1999 to 2019. Individuals with achalasia were age matched and sex matched 1:4 to individuals without achalasia. Follow-up continued from study entry until diagnosis with incident/fatal EC (primary outcome), death from non-EC-related causes, or end of the study follow-up (December 31, 2019). Association between achalasia and EC risk was examined using Cox regression models. RESULTS: We included 9,315 individuals in the analytic cohort (median age 55 years; 92% male): 1,863 with achalasia matched to 7,452 without achalasia. During a median 5.5 years of follow-up, 17 EC occurred (3 esophageal adenocarcinoma, 12 squamous cell carcinoma, and 2 unknown type) among individuals with achalasia, compared with 15 EC (11 esophageal adenocarcinoma, 1 squamous cell carcinoma, and 3 unknown type) among those without achalasia. EC incidence for those with achalasia was 1.4 per 1,000 person-years, and the median time from achalasia diagnosis to EC development was 3.0 years (Q1-Q3: 1.3-9.1). Individuals with achalasia had higher cumulative EC incidence at 5, 10, and 15 years of follow-up compared with individuals without achalasia, and EC risk was 5-fold higher (hazard ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval: 2.3-9.2). DISCUSSION: Based on substantial EC risk, individuals with achalasia may benefit from a high index of suspicion and endoscopic surveillance for EC.

Baseline Characteristics and Longitudinal Outcomes of Traditional Serrated Adenomas: A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Traditional serrated adenomas (TSAs) may confer increased risk for colorectal cancer (CRC). Our objective with this study was to examine clinical characteristics and long-term outcomes associated with TSA diagnosis. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of U.S. Veterans ≥18 years of age with ≥1 TSA between 1999 and 2018. Baseline characteristics, colonoscopy findings, and diagnosis of incident and fatal CRC were abstracted. Advanced neoplasia was defined by CRC or adenoma with high-grade dysplasia, villous histology, or size ≥1 cm. Follow-up was through CRC diagnosis, death, or end of study (December 31, 2018). RESULTS: A total of 853 Veterans with a baseline TSA were identified; 74% were ≥60 years of age, 96% were men, 14% were Black, and 73% were non-Hispanic White. About 64% were current or former smokers. Over 2044 total person-years at follow-up, there were 11 incident CRC cases and 1 CRC death. Cumulative CRC incidence was 1.34% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67%-2.68%), and cumulative CRC death was 0.12% (95% CI, 0.00%-0.35%). Among the subset of 378 TSA patients with ≥1 surveillance colonoscopy, 65.1% had high-risk neoplasia on follow-up. CRC incidence among TSA patients was significantly higher than in a comparison cohort of patients with normal baseline colonoscopy at baseline (hazard ratio, 3.70; 95% CI, 1.63-8.41) and similar to a comparison cohort with baseline conventional advanced adenoma (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.45-1.64). CONCLUSION: Individuals with TSA have substantial risk for CRC based on their cumulative CRC incidence, as well as significant risk of developing other high-risk neoplasia at follow-up surveillance colonoscopy. These data underscore importance of current recommendations for close colonoscopy surveillance after TSA diagnosis.

Adenoma Detection Rate and Clinical Characteristics Influence Advanced Neoplasia Risk After Colorectal Polypectomy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Postpolypectomy risk stratification for subsequent metachronous advanced neoplasia (MAN) is imprecise and does not account for colonoscopist adenoma detection rate (ADR). Our aim was to assess association of ADR with MAN and create a prediction model for postpolypectomy risk stratification incorporating ADR and other factors. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of individuals with baseline polypectomy and subsequent surveillance colonoscopy from 2004 to 2016 within the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Clinical factors, polyp findings, and baseline colonoscopist ADR were considered for the model. Model performance (sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve) for identifying individuals with MAN was compared with 2020 U.S. Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer (USMSTF) surveillance recommendations. RESULTS: A total of 30,897 individuals were randomly assigned 2:1 into independent model training and validation sets. Increasing age, male sex, diabetes, current smoking, adenoma number, polyp location, adenoma ≥10 mm or with tubulovillous/villous features, and decreasing colonoscopist ADR were independently associated with MAN. A range of 1.48- to 1.66-fold increased risk for MAN was observed for ADR in the lowest 3 quintiles (ADR <19.7%-39.3%) vs the highest quintile (ADR >47.0%). When the final model selected based on the training set was applied to the validation set, improved sensitivity and specificity over 2020 USMSTF risk stratification were achieved (P = .001), with an area under the curve of 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.64). CONCLUSIONS: Colonoscopist ADR is associated with MAN. Combining clinical factors and ADR for risk stratification has potential to improve postpolypectomy risk stratification. Improving ADR is likely to improve postpolypectomy outcomes.

Risk of Incident and Fatal Colorectal Cancer After Young-Onset Adenoma Diagnosis: A National Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates are increasing in adults aged <50 years. Young-onset adenoma (YOA)-adenoma detected in adults younger than 50 years-may signify increased CRC risk, but this association has not been widely studied. Our aim was to compare the risk of incident and fatal CRC in adults aged <50 years with YOA diagnosis compared with those with a normal colonoscopy. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study of US Veterans aged 18-49 years who received colonoscopy between 2005 and 2016. The primary exposure of interest was YOA. Primary outcomes included incident and fatal CRC. We used Kaplan-Meier curves to calculate cumulative incident and fatal CRC risk and Cox models to examine relative CRC risk. RESULTS: The study cohort included 54,284 Veterans aged <50 years exposed to colonoscopy, among whom 13% (n = 7,233) had YOA at start of follow-up. Cumulative 10-year CRC incidence was 0.11% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.00%-0.27%) after any adenoma diagnosis, 0.18% (95% CI: 0.02%-0.53%) after advanced YOA diagnosis, 0.10% (95% CI: 0.00%-0.28%) after nonadvanced adenoma diagnosis, and 0.06% (95% CI: 0.02%-0.09%) after normal colonoscopy. Veterans with advanced adenoma had 8-fold greater incident CRC risk than those with normal colonoscopy (hazard ratio: 8.0; 95% CI: 1.8-35.6). Across groups, no differences in fatal CRC risk were observed. DISCUSSION: Young-onset advanced adenoma diagnosis was associated with 8-fold increased incident CRC risk compared with normal colonoscopy. However, cumulative CRC incidence and mortality at 10 years among individuals with either young onset non-advanced or advanced adenoma diagnosis were both relatively low.

COVID-19 Pandemic Had Minimal Impact on Colonoscopy Completion After Colorectal Cancer Red Flag Sign or Symptoms in US Veterans.

BACKGROUND: Delays in colonoscopy work-up for red flag signs or symptoms of colorectal cancer (CRC) during the COVID-19 pandemic are not well characterized. AIMS: To examine colonoscopy uptake and time to colonoscopy after red flag diagnosis, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Cohort study of adults ages 50-75 with iron deficiency anemia (IDA), hematochezia, or abnormal stool blood test receiving Veterans Health Administration (VHA) care from April 2019 to December 2020. Index date was first red flag diagnosis date, categorized into "pre" (April-December 2019) and "intra" (April-December 2020) policy implementation prioritizing diagnostic procedures, allowing for a 3-month "washout" (January-March 2020) period. Outcomes were colonoscopy completion and time to colonoscopy pre- vs. intra-COVID-19, examined using multivariable Cox models with hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: There were 52,539 adults with red flag signs or symptoms (pre-COVID: 25,154; washout: 7527; intra-COVID: 19,858). Proportion completing colonoscopy was similar pre- vs. intra-COVID-19 (27.0% vs. 26.5%; p = 0.24). Median time to colonoscopy among colonoscopy completers was similar for pre- vs. intra-COVID-19 (46 vs. 42 days), but longer for individuals with IDA (60 vs. 49 days). There was no association between time period and colonoscopy completion (aHR: 0.99, 95% CI 0.95-1.03). CONCLUSIONS: Colonoscopy work-up of CRC red flag signs and symptoms was not delayed within VHA during the COVID-19 pandemic, possibly due to VHA policies supporting prioritization and completion. Further work is needed to understand how COVID-19 policies on screening and surveillance impact CRC-related outcomes, and how to optimize colonoscopy completion after a red flag diagnosis.

Time to Colonoscopy After Abnormal Stool-Based Screening and Risk for Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The optimal time interval for diagnostic colonoscopy completion after an abnormal stool-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening test is uncertain. We examined the association between time to colonoscopy and CRC outcomes among individuals who underwent diagnostic colonoscopy after abnormal stool-based screening. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of veterans age 50 to 75 years with an abnormal fecal occult blood test (FOBT) or fecal immunochemical test (FIT) between 1999 and 2010. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards to generate CRC-specific incidence and mortality hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for 3-month colonoscopy intervals, with 1 to 3 months as the reference group. Association of time to colonoscopy with late-stage CRC diagnosis was also examined. RESULTS: Our cohort included 204,733 patients. Mean age was 61 years (SD 6.9). Compared with patients who received a colonoscopy at 1 to 3 months, there was an increased CRC risk for patients who received a colonoscopy at 13 to 15 months (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.00-1.27), 16 to 18 months (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.10-1.43), 19 to 21 months (HR 1.28; 95% CI: 1.11-1.48), and 22 to 24 months (HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.07-1.47). Compared with patients who received a colonoscopy at 1 to 3 months, mortality risk was higher in groups who received a colonoscopy at 19 to 21 months (HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.51-1.99) and 22 to 24 months (HR 1.39; 95% CI 1.03-1.88). Odds for late-stage CRC increased at 16 months. CONCLUSIONS: Increased time to colonoscopy is associated with higher risk of CRC incidence, death, and late-stage CRC after abnormal FIT/FOBT. Interventions to improve CRC outcomes should emphasize diagnostic follow-up within 1 year of an abnormal FIT/FOBT result.

An Update on the Epidemiology, Molecular Characterization, Diagnosis, and Screening Strategies for Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer.

Rising trends in the incidence and mortality of early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC) in those who are younger than 50 years have been well established. These trends have spurred intense investigation focused on elucidating the epidemiology and characteristics of early-onset CRC, as well as on identifying strategies for early detection and prevention. In this review, we provide a contemporary update on early-onset CRC with a particular focus on epidemiology, molecular characterization, red flag signs and symptoms, and screening for early-onset CRC.

Mammography adherence in relation to function-related indicators in older women.

Prior studies of screening mammography patterns by functional status in older women show inconsistent results. We used Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium-Medicare linked data (1999-2014) to investigate the association of functional limitations with adherence to screening mammography in 145,478 women aged 66-74 years. Functional limitation was represented by a claims-based function-related indicator (FRI) score which incorporated 16 items reflecting functional status. Baseline adherence was defined as mammography utilization 9-30 months after the index screening mammography. Longitudinal adherence was examined among women adherent at baseline and defined as time from the index mammography to end of the first 30-month gap in mammography. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate baseline and longitudinal adherence, respectively. Subgroup analyses were conducted by age (66-70 vs. 71-74 years). Overall, 69.6% of participants had no substantial functional limitation (FRI score 0), 23.5% had some substantial limitations (FRI score 1), and 6.8% had serious limitations (FRI score ≥ 2). Mean age at baseline was 68.5 years (SD = 2.6), 85.3% of participants were white, and 77.1% were adherent to screening mammography at baseline. Women with a higher FRI score were more likely to be non-adherent at baseline (FRI ≥ 2 vs. 0: aOR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.06, 1.20, p-trend < 0.01). Similarly, a higher FRI score was associated with longitudinal non-adherence (FRI ≥ 2 vs. 0: aHR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.11, 1.22, p-trend < 0.01). Effect measures of FRI did not differ substantially by age categories. Older women with a higher burden of functional limitations are less likely to be adherent to screening mammography recommendations.

Increasing Colorectal Cancer Incidence Before and After Age 50: Implications for Screening Initiation and Promotion of "On-Time" Screening.

BACKGROUND: Early onset colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence is rising under age 50, with a birth cohort effect for increasing incidence among individuals born 1950 and later. It is unclear whether increasing incidence trends will confer increased risk beyond age 50, the previously most commonly recommended age to initiate screening, when screening availability might modify incidence trends. AIM: Evaluate US trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) for ages 40-59 years. METHODS: We analyzed counts and incidence rates for CRC, including by anatomic subsite, using the US Cancer Statistics dataset covering 100% of the population 2003-2017. Joinpoint regression was used to quantify Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) in cancer incidence by age subgroup. RESULTS: 470,458 CRC cases were observed age 40-59, with absolute numbers of rectal (n = 4173) and distal cases (n = 3327) per year for age 50-54 approaching age 55-59 cases for rectal (n = 4566) and distal (n = 3682) cancer by 2017. Increasing early onset rectal cancer incidence per 100,000 occuring under age 50 was observed to extend to age 50-54, from 4.9 to 6.3 for age 40-44 (AAPC 2.1; 95% CI 1.5-2.7), 9.3 to 12.0 for age 45-49 (AAPC 1.5; 95% CI 1.1-1.4), and from 16.7 to 19.5 for age 50-54 (AAPC 1.0; 95% CI 0.7-1.3). CONCLUSIONS: CRC trends suggest observed increased risks under age 50 are also present after age 50, despite prior availability of screening for this group. Recent CRC trends support initiation of screening earlier than age 50, and promotion of "on-time" screening initiation.

Systematic Review of Prevalence, Risk Factors, and Risk for Metachronous Advanced Neoplasia in Patients With Young-Onset Colorectal Adenoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The incidence and mortality of early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC) are increasing. Adenoma detection, removal, and subsequent endoscopic surveillance might modify risk of CRC diagnosed before age 50 years (early-onset CRC). We conducted a systematic review of young-onset adenoma (YOA) prevalence, associated risk factors, and rate of metachronous advanced neoplasia after YOA diagnosis. METHODS: We performed a systematic search of multiple electronic databases through February 12, 2019 and identified studies of individuals 18 to 49 years old that reported prevalence of adenoma, risk factors for adenoma, and/or risk for metachronous advanced neoplasia. Summary estimates were derived using random effects meta-analysis, when feasible. RESULTS: The pooled overall prevalence of YOA was 9.0% (95% CI, 7.1%-11.4%), based on 24 studies comprising 23,142 individuals. On subgroup analysis, the pooled prevalence of YOA from autopsy studies was 3.9% (95% CI, 1.9%-7.6%), whereas the prevalence from colonoscopy studies was 10.7% (95% CI, 8.5%-13.5). Only advancing age was identified as a consistent risk factor for YOA, based on 4 studies comprising 78,880 individuals. Pooled rate of metachronous advanced neoplasia after baseline YOA diagnosis was 6.0% (95% CI, 4.1%-8.6%), based on 3 studies comprising 1493 individuals undergoing follow-up colonoscopy, with only 1 CRC case reported. Overall, few studies reported metachronous advanced neoplasia and no studies evaluated whether routine surveillance colonoscopy decreases risk of CRC. CONCLUSIONS: In a systematic review, we estimated the prevalence of YOA to be 9% and to increase with age. Risk for metachronous advanced neoplasia after YOA diagnosis is estimated to be 6%. More research is needed to understand the prevalence, risk factors, and risk of CRC associated with YOA.

Risk Factors for Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality are increasing among persons younger than 50 years old in the United States, but risk factors associated with early-onset CRC (EOCRC) have not been widely studied. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of US veterans 18 to 49 years old who underwent colonoscopy examinations from 1999 through 2014. EOCRC cases were identified from a national cancer registry; veterans who were free of CRC at their baseline colonoscopy through 3 years of follow-up were identified as controls. We collected data on age, sex, race/ethnicity, body weight, body mass index (BMI), diabetes, smoking status, and aspirin use. Multivariate-adjusted EOCRC odds were estimated for each factor, with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) values. RESULTS: Our final analysis included 651 EOCRC cases and 67,416 controls. Median age was 45.3 years, and 82.3% were male. Higher proportions of cases were older, male, current smokers, nonaspirin users, and had lower BMIs, compared with controls (P < .05). In adjusted analyses, increasing age and male sex were significantly associated with increased risk of EOCRC, whereas aspirin use and being overweight or obese (relative to normal BMI) were significantly associated with decreased odds of EOCRC. In post hoc analyses, weight loss of 5 kg or more within the 5-year period preceding colonoscopy was associated with higher odds of EOCRC (odds ratio 2.23; 95% CI 1.76-2.83). CONCLUSIONS: In a case-control study of veterans, we found increasing age and male sex to be significantly associated with increased risk of EOCRC, and aspirin use to be significantly associated with decreased risk; these factors also affect risk for CRC onset after age 50. Weight loss may be an early clinical sign of EOCRC. More intense efforts are required to identify the factors that cause EOCRC and signs that can be used to identify individuals at highest risk.

A strategy for validation of variables derived from large-scale electronic health record data.

PURPOSE: Standardized approaches for rigorous validation of phenotyping from large-scale electronic health record (EHR) data have not been widely reported. We proposed a methodologically rigorous and efficient approach to guide such validation, including strategies for sampling cases and controls, determining sample sizes, estimating algorithm performance, and terminating the validation process, hereafter referred to as the San Diego Approach to Variable Validation (SDAVV). METHODS: We propose sample size formulae which should be used prior to chart review, based on pre-specified critical lower bounds for positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). We also propose a stepwise strategy for iterative algorithm development/validation cycles, updating sample sizes for data abstraction until both PPV and NPV achieve target performance. RESULTS: We applied the SDAVV to a Department of Veterans Affairs study in which we created two phenotyping algorithms, one for distinguishing normal colonoscopy cases from abnormal colonoscopy controls and one for identifying aspirin exposure. Estimated PPV and NPV both reached 0.970 with a 95% confidence lower bound of 0.915, estimated sensitivity was 0.963 and specificity was 0.975 for identifying normal colonoscopy cases. The phenotyping algorithm for identifying aspirin exposure reached a PPV of 0.990 (a 95% lower bound of 0.950), an NPV of 0.980 (a 95% lower bound of 0.930), and sensitivity and specificity were 0.960 and 1.000. CONCLUSIONS: A structured approach for prospectively developing and validating phenotyping algorithms from large-scale EHR data can be successfully implemented, and should be considered to improve the quality of "big data" research.

Young-onset colorectal cancer risk among individuals with iron-deficiency anaemia and haematochezia.

OBJECTIVE: Young-onset colorectal cancer (YCRC) incidence is rising. Scant data exist on YCRC risk after presentation with concerning symptoms such as iron-deficiency anaemia (IDA) or haematochezia. We examined the association between IDA and YCRC, and haematochezia and YCRC. DESIGN: Cohort study of US Veterans aged 18-49 years receiving Veterans Health Administration (VHA) care 1999-2016. IDA analytic cohort was created matching individuals without incident IDA to those with IDA 4:1 based on sex, birth year and first VHA visit date (n=239 000). We used this approach to also create a distinct haematochezia analytic cohort (n=653 740). Incident YCRC was ascertained via linkage to cancer registry and/or cause-specific mortality data. We computed cumulative incidence, risk difference (RD) and HRs using Cox models in each cohort. RESULTS: Five-year YCRC cumulative incidence was 0.45% among individuals with IDA versus 0.05% without IDA (RD: 0.39%, 95% CI: 0.33%-0.46%), corresponding to an HR of 10.81 (95% CI: 8.15-14.33). Comparing IDA versus no IDA, RD was 0.78% for men (95% CI: 0.64%-0.92%) and 0.08% for women (95% CI: 0.03%-0.13%), and RD increased by age from 0.14% for <30 years to 0.53% for 40-49 years. YCRC cumulative incidence was 0.33% among individuals with haematochezia versus 0.03% without haematochezia (RD: 0.30%, 95% CI: 0.26%-0.33%), corresponding to an HR of 10.66 (95% CI: 8.76-12.97). Comparing haematochezia versus no haematochezia, RD increased by age from 0.04% for <30 years to 0.43% for 40-49 years. CONCLUSION: Colonoscopy should be strongly considered in adults aged <50 years with IDA or haematochezia without a clinically confirmed alternate source.

Impact of Helicobacter pylori Infection and Treatment on Colorectal Cancer in a Large, Nationwide Cohort.

PURPOSE: Helicobacter pylori is the most common cause of infection-associated cancer worldwide. We aimed to evaluate the impact of H. pylori infection and treatment on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality. PATIENTS: US Veterans who completed H. pylori testing between 1999 and 2018. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis among adults within the Veterans Health Administration who completed testing for H. pylori. The primary exposures were (1) H. pylori test result (positive/negative) and (2) H. pylori treatment (untreated/treated) among H. pylori-positive individuals. The primary outcomes were CRC incidence and mortality. Follow-up started at the first H. pylori testing and continued until the earliest of incident or fatal CRC, non-CRC death, or December 31, 2019. RESULTS: Among 812,736 individuals tested for H. pylori, 205,178 (25.2%) tested positive. Being H. pylori-positive versus H. pylori-negative was associated with higher CRC incidence and mortality. H. pylori treatment versus no treatment was associated with lower CRC incidence and mortality (absolute risk reduction 0.23%-0.35%) through 15-year follow-up. Being H. pylori-positive versus H. pylori-negative was associated with an 18% (adjusted hazard ratio [adjusted HR], 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12 to 1.24]) and 12% (adjusted HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.03 to 1.21]) higher incident and fatal CRC risk, respectively. Individuals with untreated versus treated H. pylori infection had 23% (adjusted HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.13 to 1.34]) and 40% (adjusted HR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.24 to 1.58]) higher incident and fatal CRC risk, respectively. The results were more pronounced in the analysis restricted to individuals with nonserologic testing. CONCLUSION: H. pylori positivity may be associated with small but statistically significant higher CRC incidence and mortality; untreated individuals, especially those with confirmed active infection, appear to be most at risk.

Racial disparities in colorectal cancer outcomes and access to care: a multi-cohort analysis.

Introduction: Non-Hispanic Black (NHB) Americans have a higher incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) and worse survival than non-Hispanic white (NHW) Americans, but the relative contributions of biological versus access to care remain poorly characterized. This study used two nationwide cohorts in different healthcare contexts to study health system effects on this disparity. Methods: We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry as well as the United States Veterans Health Administration (VA) to identify adults diagnosed with colorectal cancer between 2010 and 2020 who identified as non-Hispanic Black (NHB) or non-Hispanic white (NHW). Stratified survival analyses were performed using a primary endpoint of overall survival, and sensitivity analyses were performed using cancer-specific survival. Results: We identified 263,893 CRC patients in the SEER registry (36,662 (14%) NHB; 226,271 (86%) NHW) and 24,375 VA patients (4,860 (20%) NHB; 19,515 (80%) NHW). In the SEER registry, NHB patients had worse OS than NHW patients: median OS of 57 months (95% confidence interval (CI) 55-58) versus 72 months (95% CI 71-73) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.14, 95% CI 1.12-1.15, p = 0.001). In contrast, VA NHB median OS was 65 months (95% CI 62-69) versus NHW 69 months (95% CI 97-71) (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.98-1.07, p = 0.375). There was significant interaction in the SEER registry between race and Medicare age eligibility (p < 0.001); NHB race had more effect in patients <65 years old (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.39-1.49, p < 0.001) than in those ≥65 (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.11-1.15, p < 0.001). In the VA, age stratification was not significant (p = 0.21). Discussion: Racial disparities in CRC survival in the general US population are significantly attenuated in Medicare-aged patients. This pattern is not present in the VA, suggesting that access to care may be an important component of racial disparities in this disease.

Red Flag Signs and Symptoms for Patients With Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC), defined as a diagnosis at younger than age 50 years, is increasing, and so-called red flag signs and symptoms among these individuals are often missed, leading to diagnostic delays. Improved recognition of presenting signs and symptoms associated with EOCRC could facilitate more timely diagnosis and impact clinical outcomes. Objective: To report the frequency of presenting red flag signs and symptoms among individuals with EOCRC, to examine their association with EOCRC risk, and to measure variation in time to diagnosis from sign or symptom presentation. Data Sources: PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and Web of Science were searched from database inception through May 2023. Study Selection: Studies that reported on sign and symptom presentation or time from sign and symptom presentation to diagnosis for patients younger than age 50 years diagnosed with nonhereditary CRC were included. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Data extraction and quality assessment were performed independently in duplicate for all included studies using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses reporting guidelines. Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal tools were used to measure risk of bias. Data on frequency of signs and symptoms were pooled using a random-effects model. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes of interest were pooled proportions of signs and symptoms in patients with EOCRC, estimates for association of signs and symptoms with EOCRC risk, and time from sign or symptom presentation to EOCRC diagnosis. Results: Of the 12 859 unique articles initially retrieved, 81 studies with 24 908 126 patients younger than 50 years were included. The most common presenting signs and symptoms, reported by 78 included studies, were hematochezia (pooled prevalence, 45% [95% CI, 40%-50%]), abdominal pain (pooled prevalence, 40% [95% CI, 35%-45%]), and altered bowel habits (pooled prevalence, 27% [95% CI, 22%-33%]). Hematochezia (estimate range, 5.2-54.0), abdominal pain (estimate range, 1.3-6.0), and anemia (estimate range, 2.1-10.8) were associated with higher EOCRC likelihood. Time from signs and symptoms presentation to EOCRC diagnosis was a mean (range) of 6.4 (1.8-13.7) months (23 studies) and a median (range) of 4 (2.0-8.7) months (16 studies). Conclusions and Relevance: In this systematic review and meta-analysis of patients with EOCRC, nearly half of individuals presented with hematochezia and abdominal pain and one-quarter with altered bowel habits. Hematochezia was associated with at least 5-fold increased EOCRC risk. Delays in diagnosis of 4 to 6 months were common. These findings highlight the need to identify concerning EOCRC signs and symptoms and complete timely diagnostic workup, particularly for individuals without an alternative diagnosis or sign or symptom resolution.

Predictive models to assess risk of extended length of stay in adults with spinal deformity and lumbar degenerative pathology: development and internal validation.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Postoperative recovery after adult spinal deformity (ASD) operations is arduous, fraught with complications, and often requires extended hospital stays. A need exists for a method to rapidly predict patients at risk for extended length of stay (eLOS) in the preoperative setting. PURPOSE: To develop a machine learning model to preoperatively estimate the likelihood of eLOS following elective multi-level lumbar/thoracolumbar spinal instrumented fusions (≥3 segments) for ASD. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: Retrospectively from a state-level inpatient database hosted by the Health care cost and Utilization Project. PATIENT SAMPLE: Of 8,866 patients of age ≥50 with ASD undergoing elective lumbar or thoracolumbar multilevel instrumented fusions. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was eLOS (>7 days). METHODS: Predictive variables consisted of demographics, comorbidities, and operative information. Significant variables from univariate and multivariate analyses were used to develop a logistic regression-based predictive model that use six predictors. Model accuracy was assessed through area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. RESULTS: Of 8,866 patients met inclusion criteria. A saturated logistic model with all significant variables from multivariate analysis was developed (AUC=0.77), followed by generation of a simplified logistic model through stepwise logistic regression (AUC=0.76). Peak AUC was reached with inclusion of six selected predictors (combined anterior and posterior approach, surgery to both lumbar and thoracic regions, ≥8 level fusion, malnutrition, congestive heart failure, and academic institution). A cutoff of 0.18 for eLOS yielded a sensitivity of 77% and specificity of 68%. CONCLUSIONS: This predictive model can facilitate identification of adults at risk for eLOS following elective multilevel lumbar/thoracolumbar spinal instrumented fusions for ASD. With a fair diagnostic accuracy, the predictive calculator will ideally enable clinicians to improve preoperative planning, guide patient expectations, enable optimization of modifiable risk factors, facilitate appropriate discharge planning, stratify financial risk, and accurately identify patients who may represent high-cost outliers. Future prospective studies that validate this risk assessment tool on external datasets would be valuable.

Time to Endoscopy or Colonoscopy Among Adults Younger Than 50 Years With Iron-Deficiency Anemia and/or Hematochezia in the VHA.

Importance: To date, the diagnostic test completion rate and the time to diagnostic endoscopy or colonoscopy among adults with iron-deficiency anemia (IDA) and/or hematochezia have not been well characterized. Objective: To evaluate the diagnostic test completion rate and the time to diagnostic testing among veterans younger than 50 years with IDA and/or hematochezia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was conducted within the Veterans Health Administration between October 1, 1999, and December 31, 2019, among US veterans aged 18 to 49 years from 2 separate cohorts: those with a diagnosis of IDA (n = 59 169) and those with a diagnosis of hematochezia (n = 189 185). Statistical analysis was conducted from August 2021 to August 2023. Exposures: Diagnostic testing factors included age, sex, race and ethnicity, Veterans Health Administration geographic region, and hemoglobin test value (IDA cohort only). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes of diagnostic testing were (1) bidirectional endoscopy after diagnosis of IDA and (2) colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy after diagnosis of hematochezia. The association between diagnostic testing factors and diagnostic test completion was examined using Poisson models. Results: There were 59 169 veterans with a diagnosis of IDA (mean [SD] age, 40.7 [7.1] years; 30 502 men [51.6%]), 189 185 veterans with a diagnosis of hematochezia (mean [SD] age, 39.4 [7.6] years; 163 690 men [86.5%]), and 2287 veterans with IDA and hematochezia (mean [SD] age, 41.6 [6.9] years; 1856 men [81.2%]). The cumulative 2-year diagnostic workup completion rate was 22% (95% CI, 22%-22%) among veterans with IDA and 40% (95% CI, 40%-40%) among veterans with hematochezia. Veterans with IDA were mostly aged 40 to 49 years (37 719 [63.7%]) and disproportionately Black (24 480 [41.4%]). Women with IDA (rate ratio [RR], 0.42; 95% CI, 0.40-0.43) had a lower likelihood of diagnostic test completion compared with men with IDA. Black (RR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.62-0.68) and Hispanic (RR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82-0.94) veterans with IDA were less likely to receive diagnostic testing compared with White veterans with IDA. Veterans with hematochezia were mostly White (105 341 [55.7%]). Among veterans with hematochezia, those aged 30 to 49 years were more likely to receive diagnostic testing than adults younger than 30 years of age (age 30-39 years: RR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.12-1.18; age 40-49 years: RR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.33-1.40). Hispanic veterans with hematochezia were less likely to receive diagnostic testing compared with White veterans with hematochezia (RR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-0.98). Conclusions and Relevance: In the cohorts of veterans younger than 50 years with IDA and/or hematochezia, the diagnostic test completion rate was low. Follow-up was less likely among female, Black, and Hispanic veterans with IDA and Hispanic veterans with hematochezia. Optimizing timely follow-up across social and demographic groups may contribute to improving colorectal cancer outcomes and mitigate disparities.

Development and internal validation of predictive models to assess risk of post-acute care facility discharge in adults undergoing multi-level instrumented fusions for lumbar degenerative pathology and spinal deformity.

PURPOSE: To develop a model for factors predictive of Post-Acute Care Facility (PACF) discharge in adult patients undergoing elective multi-level (≥ 3 segments) lumbar/thoracolumbar spinal instrumented fusions. METHODS: The State Inpatient Databases acquired from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project from 2005 to 2013 were queried for adult patients who underwent elective multi-level thoracolumbar fusions for spinal deformity. Outcome variables were classified as discharge to home or PACF. Predictive variables included demographic, pre-operative, and operative factors. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses informed development of a logistic regression-based predictive model using seven selected variables. Performance metrics included area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. RESULTS: Included for analysis were 8866 patients. The logistic model including significant variables from multivariate analysis yielded an AUC of 0.75. Stepwise logistic regression was used to simplify the model and assess number of variables needed to reach peak AUC, which included seven selected predictors (insurance, interspaces fused, gender, age, surgical region, CCI, and revision surgery) and had an AUC of 0.74. Model cut-off for predictive PACF discharge was 0.41, yielding a sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 59%. CONCLUSIONS: The seven variables associated significantly with PACF discharge (age > 60, female gender, non-private insurance, primary operations, instrumented fusion involving 8+ interspaces, thoracolumbar region, and higher CCI scores) may aid in identification of adults at risk for discharge to a PACF following elective multi-level lumbar/thoracolumbar spinal fusions for spinal deformity. This may in turn inform discharge planning and expectation management.