Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 and Insulin-Like Growth Factor-Binding Protein 3 in Relation to the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Results From the EPIC-Potsdam Study.

Higher levels of insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3) might raise the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) via binding of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), an insulin-like hormone that is involved in glucose homeostasis. We investigated serum concentrations of IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 and their molar ratio in relation to T2DM incidence in a nested case-cohort study within the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition-Potsdam Study. We included a randomly selected subcohort of persons without T2DM at the time of blood sampling (n = 2,269) and 776 individuals with incident T2DM identified between 1994 and 2005. For the highest quartile versus lowest, the multivariable-adjusted hazard rate ratios were 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68, 1.23; P for trend = 0.31) for IGF-1, 1.33 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.76; P for trend = 0.04) for IGFBP-3, and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.57, 1.03; P for trend = 0.03) for IGF-1:IGFBP-3 ratio. IGFBP-3 level remained positively associated with T2DM incidence-and the ratio of IGF-1 to IGFBP-3 was inversely related with T2DM incidence--in models that included adjustment for IGF-1 concentrations (P for trend < 0.05). Therefore, our findings do not confirm an association between total IGF-1 concentrations and risk of T2DM in the general study population, although higher IGFBP-3 levels might raise T2DM risk independent of IGF-1 levels.

Cellular immune activity biomarker neopterin is associated hyperlipidemia: results from a large population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Increased serum neopterin had been described in older age two decades ago. Neopterin is a biomarker of systemic adaptive immune activation that could be potentially implicated in metabolic syndrome (MetS). Measurements of waist circumference, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), systolic and diastolic blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin as components of MetS definition, and plasma total neopterin concentrations were performed in 594 participants recruited in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). RESULTS: Higher total neopterin concentrations were associated with reduced HDLC (9.7 %, p < 0.01 for men and 9.2 %, p < 0.01 for women), whereas no association was observed with the rest of the MetS components as well as with MetS overall (per 10 nmol/L: OR = 1.42, 95 % CI = 0.85-2.39 for men and OR = 1.38, 95 % CI = 0.79-2.43). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that high total neopterin concentrations are cross-sectionally associated with reduced HDLC, but not with overall MetS.

Untargeted metabolic profiling identifies altered serum metabolites of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a prospective, nested case control study.

BACKGROUND: Application of metabolite profiling could expand the etiological knowledge of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). However, few prospective studies apply broad untargeted metabolite profiling to reveal the comprehensive metabolic alterations preceding the onset of T2D. METHODS: We applied untargeted metabolite profiling in serum samples obtained from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort comprising 300 individuals who developed T2D after a median follow-up time of 6 years and 300 matched controls. For that purpose, we used ultraperformance LC-MS with a protocol specifically designed for large-scale metabolomics studies with regard to robustness and repeatability. After multivariate classification to select metabolites with the strongest contribution to disease classification, we applied multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression to assess the association of these metabolites with T2D. RESULTS: Among several alterations in lipid metabolism, there was an inverse association with T2D for metabolites chemically annotated as lysophosphatidylcholine(dm16:0) and phosphatidylcholine(O-20:0/O-20:0). Hexose sugars were positively associated with T2D, whereas higher concentrations of a sugar alcohol and a deoxyhexose sugar reduced the odds of diabetes by approximately 60% and 70%, respectively. Furthermore, there was suggestive evidence for a positive association of the circulating purine nucleotide isopentenyladenosine-5'-monophosphate with incident T2D. CONCLUSIONS: This study constitutes one of the largest metabolite profiling approaches of T2D biomarkers in a prospective study population. The findings might help generate new hypotheses about diabetes etiology and develop further targeted studies of a smaller number of potentially important metabolites.

Adiposity, mediating biomarkers and risk of colon cancer in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition study.

Adiposity is a risk factor for colon cancer, but underlying mechanisms are not well understood. We evaluated the extent to which 11 biomarkers with inflammatory and metabolic actions mediate the association of adiposity measures, waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI), with colon cancer in men and women. We analyzed data from a prospective nested case-control study among 662 incident colon cancer cases matched within risk sets to 662 controls. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using conditional logistic regression. The percent effect change and corresponding CIs were estimated after adjusting for biomarkers shown to be associated with colon cancer risk. After multivariable adjustment, WC was associated with colon cancer risk in men (top vs. bottom tertile RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.06-2.65; ptrend = 0.02) and in women (RR 1.67, 95% CI 1.09-2.56; ptrend = 0.03). BMI was associated with risk only in men. The association of WC with colon cancer was accounted mostly for by three biomarkers, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, non-high-molecular-weight adiponectin and soluble leptin receptor, which in combination explained 46% (95% CI 37-57%) of the association in men and 50% (95% CI 40-65%) of the association in women. Similar results were observed for the associations with BMI in men. These data suggest that alterations in levels of these metabolic biomarkers may represent a primary mechanism of action in the relation of adiposity with colon cancer. Further studies are warranted to determine whether altering their concentrations may reduce colon cancer risk.

Serum metabolites related to cardiorespiratory fitness, physical activity energy expenditure, sedentary time and vigorous activity.

The aim of our study was to investigate the relationship between objectively measured physical activity (PA) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and serum metabolites measured by targeted metabolomics in a population- based study. A total of 100 subjects provided 2 fasting blood samples and engaged in a CRF and PA measurement at 2 visits 4 months apart. CRF was estimated from a step test, whereas physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE), time spent sedentary and time spend in vigorous activity were measured by a combined heart rate and movement sensor for a total of 8 days. Serum metabolite concentrations were determined by flow injection analysis tandem mass spectrometry (FIA-MS/MS). Linear mixed models were applied with multivariable adjustment and p-values were corrected for multiple testing. Furthermore, we explored the associations between CRF, PA and two metabolite factors that have previously been linked to risk of Type 2 diabetes. CRF was associated with two phosphatidylcholine clusters independently of all other exposures. Lysophosphatidylcholine C14:0 and methionine were significantly negatively associated with PAEE and sedentary time. CRF was positively associated with the Type 2 diabetes protective factor. Vigorous activity was positively associated with the Type 2 diabetes risk factor in the mutually adjusted model. Our results suggest that CRF and PA are associated with serum metabolites, especially CRF with phosphatidylcholines and with the Type 2 diabetes protective factor. PAEE and sedentary time were associated with methionine. The identified metabolites could be potential mediators of the protective effects of CRF and PA on chronic disease risk.

Hormonal, metabolic, and inflammatory profiles and endometrial cancer risk within the EPIC cohort--a factor analysis.

A "Western" lifestyle characterized by physical inactivity and excess weight is associated with a number of metabolic and hormonal dysregulations, including increased circulating estrogen levels, hyperinsulinemia, hyperglycemia, and chronic inflammation. The same hormonal and metabolic axes might mediate the association between this lifestyle and the development of endometrial cancer. Using data collected within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), a prospective cohort study carried out in 10 European countries during 1992-2000, we conducted a factor analysis to delineate important components that summarize the variation explained by a set of biomarkers and to examine their association with endometrial cancer risk. Prediagnostic levels of testosterone, androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, sex hormone-binding globulin, estrone, estradiol, C-peptide, insulin-like growth factor-binding proteins 1 and 2, adiponectin, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glucose, triglycerides, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) α, soluble TNF receptors 1 and 2, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist were measured in 233 incident endometrial cancer cases and 446 matched controls. Factor analysis identified 3 components associated with postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk that could be labeled "insulin resistance/metabolic syndrome," "steroids," and "inflammation" factors. A fourth component, "lipids," was not significantly associated with endometrial cancer. In conclusion, besides the well-known associations of risk with sex hormones and insulin-regulated physiological axes, our data further support the hypothesis that inflammation factors play a role in endometrial carcinogenesis.

Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (<94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (>102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). CONCLUSIONS: WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.

Intake estimation of total and individual flavan-3-ols, proanthocyanidins and theaflavins, their food sources and determinants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

Epidemiological studies suggest health-protective effects of flavan-3-ols and their derived compounds on chronic diseases. The present study aimed to estimate dietary flavan-3-ol, proanthocyanidin (PA) and theaflavin intakes, their food sources and potential determinants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration cohort. Dietary data were collected using a standardised 24 h dietary recall software administered to 36 037 subjects aged 35-74 years. Dietary data were linked with a flavanoid food composition database compiled from the latest US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases and expanded to include recipes, estimations and retention factors. Total flavan-3-ol intake was the highest in UK Health-conscious men (453·6 mg/d) and women of UK General population (377·6 mg/d), while the intake was the lowest in Greece (men: 160·5 mg/d; women: 124·8 mg/d). Monomer intake was the highest in UK General population (men: 213·5 mg/d; women: 178·6 mg/d) and the lowest in Greece (men: 26·6 mg/d in men; women: 20·7 mg/d). Theaflavin intake was the highest in UK General population (men: 29·3 mg/d; women: 25·3 mg/d) and close to zero in Greece and Spain. PA intake was the highest in Asturias (men: 455·2 mg/d) and San Sebastian (women: 253 mg/d), while being the lowest in Greece (men: 134·6 mg/d; women: 101·0 mg/d). Except for the UK, non-citrus fruits (apples/pears) were the highest contributors to the total flavan-3-ol intake. Tea was the main contributor of total flavan-3-ols in the UK. Flavan-3-ol, PA and theaflavin intakes were significantly different among all assessed groups. This study showed heterogeneity in flavan-3-ol, PA and theaflavin intake throughout the EPIC countries.

Blood lipid and lipoprotein concentrations and colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between serum concentrations of total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), low density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, apolipoprotein A-I (apoA), apolipoprotein B and the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC). DESIGN: Nested case-control study. SETTING: The study was conducted within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), a cohort of more than 520,000 participants from 10 western European countries. PARTICIPANTS: 1238 cases of incident CRC, which developed after enrolment into the cohort, were matched with 1238 controls for age, sex, centre, follow-up time, time of blood collection and fasting status. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Serum concentrations were quantitatively determined by colorimetric and turbidimetric methods. Dietary and lifestyle data were obtained from questionnaires. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs which were adjusted for height, weight, smoking habits, physical activity, education, consumption of fruit, vegetables, meat, fish, alcohol, fibre and energy. RESULTS: After adjustments, the concentrations of HDL and apoA were inversely associated with the risk of colon cancer (RR for 1 SD increase of 16.6 mg/dl in HDL and 32.0 mg/dl in apoA of 0.78 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.89) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.94), respectively). No association was observed with the risk of rectal cancer. Additional adjustment for biomarkers of systemic inflammation, insulin resistance and oxidative stress or exclusion of the first 2 years of follow-up did not influence the association between HDL and risk of colon cancer. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show that high concentrations of serum HDL are associated with a decreased risk of colon cancer. The mechanism behind this association needs further elucidation.

Plasma gamma-glutamyltransferase, cysteinyl-glycine, and oxidized low-density lipoprotein: a pathway associated with myocardial infarction risk?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the interrelation between plasma γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) activity, cysteinyl-glycine (Cys-Gly) (ie, a thiol originating from GGT-mediated cleavage of glutathione), and oxidized low-density lipoprotein (oxLDL) with regard to myocardial infarction (MI) risk in a prospective study. METHODS AND RESULTS: Incident cases of MI were identified among European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam participants without prior MI during 6.0 years of follow-up. Baseline levels of Cys-Gly and oxLDL and GGT activity in plasma were measured in a case-cohort study comprising 837 subjects without incident MI and 116 subjects with incident MI. The relation of GGT, Cys-Gly and oxLDL to MI risk was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. After adjustment for established risk factors, hazard ratios associated with a 1-SD unit increase in the log-transformed biomarker were 1.63 (95% CI, 1.30 to 2.05) for GGT, 1.36 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.72) for Cys-Gly, and 1.37 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.86) for oxLDL. Cys-Gly and oxLDL accounted for 2.3% of the relation between GGT and MI risk. CONCLUSIONS: The positive association between GGT activity and MI risk appears to be independent of circulating Cys-Gly and oxLDL levels. With Cys-Gly, we found a potential new predictor of MI risk whose impact needs to be further elucidated.

Estimation of the contribution of biomarkers of different metabolic pathways to risk of type 2 diabetes.

The contribution of different biological pathways to the development of type 2 diabetes was quantified in a case-cohort design based on circulating blood biomarkers from participants aged 35-65 years in the EPIC-Potsdam Study. The analytic sample included 613 participants with incident diabetes and 1965 participants without diabetes. The proportion that each biomarker contributed to the risk of diabetes was quantified using effect decomposition method. Summarized risk of each biomarker was estimated by an index based on quintiles of gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), HDL-cholesterol, hs-CRP, and adiponectin. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate relative risks adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, waist-circumference, education, sport activity, cycling, occupational activity, smoking, alcohol intake, and consumptions of red meat, coffee and whole grain bread. Adiponectin explained a total of 32.1% (CI = 16.8, 49.1%) of the risk related to index. For the other biomarkers the corresponding proportions were 23.5% (CI = 10.1, 37.8%) by HDL-cholesterol, 21.5% (CI = 11.5, 32.8%) by GGT, and 15.5% (CI = 4.44, 27.3%) by hs-CRP. The results support the hypothesis that the different biological pathways reflected by GGT, HDL-cholesterol, hs-CRP and adiponectin independent from each other contribute to the risk of type 2 diabetes. Of these pathways the highest contribution was observed for adiponectin which contributed one-third to the risk and that equal proportion was contributed by GGT and HDL-cholesterol, although the contribution of inflammation was lower.

Chocolate consumption in relation to blood pressure and risk of cardiovascular disease in German adults.

AIMS: To investigate the association of chocolate consumption with measured blood pressure (BP) and the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Dietary intake, including chocolate, and BP were assessed at baseline (1994-98) in 19 357 participants (aged 35-65 years) free of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke and not using antihypertensive medication of the Potsdam arm of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Incident cases of MI (n = 166) and stroke (n = 136) were identified after a mean follow-up of approximately 8 years. Mean systolic BP was 1.0 mmHg [95% confidence interval (CI) -1.6 to -0.4 mmHg] and mean diastolic BP 0.9 mmHg (95% CI -1.3 to -0.5 mmHg) lower in the top quartile compared with the bottom quartile of chocolate consumption. The relative risk of the combined outcome of MI and stroke for top vs. bottom quartiles was 0.61 (95% CI 0.44-0.87; P linear trend = 0.014). Baseline BP explained 12% of this lower risk (95% CI 3-36%). The inverse association was stronger for stroke than for MI. CONCLUSION: Chocolate consumption appears to lower CVD risk, in part through reducing BP. The inverse association may be stronger for stroke than for MI. Further research is needed, in particular randomized trials.

Vitamin E and risk of cardiovascular diseases: a review of epidemiologic and clinical trial studies.

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of worldwide mortality. There is strong epidemiologic evidence for a beneficial effect of vitamin E on cardiovascular disease risk. However, conflicting results have been reported by intervention studies. To assess the potential benefit of vitamin E intake on the risk of cardiovascular diseases, fifty-nine published reports from observational studies, retrospective and prospective, randomised clinical trials, meta-analyses as well as pooling analyses were reviewed. The paper provides a detailed discussion about design, quality and limitations of these studies with regard to the evidence of the hypothesized relationship between vitamin E and cardiovascular diseases.

Prediction of Circulating Adipokine Levels Based on Body Fat Compartments and Adipose Tissue Gene Expression.

BACKGROUND: Adipokines are hormones secreted from adipose tissue (AT), and a number of them have been established as risk factors for chronic diseases. However, it is not clear whether and to what extent adiposity, gene expression, and other factors determine their circulating levels. OBJECTIVES: To assess to what extent adiposity, as measured by the amount of subcutaneous AT (SAT) and visceral AT (VAT) using magnetic resonance imaging, and gene expression levels in SAT determine plasma concentrations of the adipokines adiponectin, leptin, soluble leptin receptor, resistin, interleukin 6, and fatty acid-binding protein 4 (FABP4). METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 156 participants from the EPIC Potsdam cohort study and analyzed multiple regression models and partial correlation coefficients. RESULTS: For leptin and FABP4 concentrations, 81 and 45% variance were explained by SAT mass, VAT mass, and gene expression in SAT in multivariable regression models. For the remaining adipokines, AT mass and gene expression explained <16% variance of plasma concentrations. Gene expression in SAT was a less important predictor compared to AT mass. SAT mass was a better predictor than VAT mass for leptin (partial correlation r = 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.75-0.86, vs. r = 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.67), while differences between AT compartments were small for the other adipokines. CONCLUSIONS: While plasma levels of leptin and FABP4 can be explained in a large and medium part by the amount of AT and SAT gene expression, surprisingly, these predictors explained only little variance for all other investigated adipokines.

Fatty Acid-Binding Protein 4 and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes, Myocardial Infarction, and Stroke: A Prospective Cohort Study.

CONTEXT: Adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein (FABP4) is expressed in adipose tissue and may impair glucose homeostasis and promote atherosclerotic processes. OBJECTIVE: We examined the association between serum FABP4 and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke. DESIGN: Case-cohort study embedded within a sample of 27,548 participants of the EPIC-Potsdam cohort. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: A randomly selected subcohort (n = 2194) of participants who were free of cardiovascular disease and T2D at study baseline and 728 incident T2D cases, 206 incident stroke cases, and 185 incident MI cases with an average 8.2 (±1.7) years of follow-up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident T2D, MI, and stroke. RESULTS: In a multivariable-adjusted model, the hazard ratios (HRs) in the highest vs lowest quartile of FABP4 were 1.81 (95% CI, 1.21 to 2.70; Ptrend = 0.01) for T2D, 0.93 (95% CI, 0.55 to 1.55; Ptrend = 0.68) for MI, and 1.41 (95% CI, 0.80 to 2.49; Ptrend = 0.24) for stroke, respectively. In analyses stratified by sex, no statistically significant differences could be seen for associations between FABP4 and T2D and MI (Pinteraction by sex = 0.27 and 0.84, respectively), whereas a higher risk of stroke was observed in men (HR: 2.70, 95% CI 1.20 to 6.00; P = 0.04), but not in women (HR: 0.70, 95% CI 0.31 to 1.60; P = 0.53; Pinteraction = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: These data support the hypothesis that elevated FABP4 levels may contribute to T2D risk. In contrast, our data did not support the hypothesis that circulating FABP4 may be relevant for MI, whereas the observed association with stroke in men may need further evaluation.

B vitamin plasma levels and the risk of ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack in a German cohort.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Data from prospective studies on the associations between B vitamin plasma levels and the risk of stroke are limited. We investigated the individual and combined effects of plasma folate, vitamin B12, and pyridoxal 5-phosphate (PLP) levels on the risk of ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) in a large, prospective German cohort. METHODS: Incident cases of ischemic stroke or TIA were identified among 25 770 participants (age 35 to 65 years) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Potsdam Study during 6.0+/-1.5 years of follow-up. The present analysis is based on a case-cohort study comprising 779 subjects free from cardiovascular disease and 188 incident cases of cerebral ischemia (ischemic stroke or TIA). Multivariable Cox proportional-hazard models were applied to evaluate the association between B vitamin levels and risk of cerebral ischemia. RESULTS: Participants in the lowest tertile of vitamin B12 values were at increased risk of cerebral ischemia compared with subjects in the highest tertile; this was not observed, however, for either folate or PLP. In subgroup analyses, the relative risks were similar in magnitude for stroke and TIA. When various combinations of B vitamin tertile levels were analyzed, only combined low folate and vitamin B12 levels (relative risk, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.10 to 4.54) were significantly related to an increased risk of cerebrovascular ischemia. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that low vitamin B12 plasma levels, particularly in combination with low folate levels, increase the risk of cerebral ischemia. This effect may be mediated at least partly through elevations of homocysteine levels.

Physical activity, mediating factors and risk of colon cancer: insights into adiposity and circulating biomarkers from the EPIC cohort.

Background: There is convincing evidence that high physical activity lowers the risk of colon cancer; however, the underlying biological mechanisms remain largely unknown. We aimed to determine the extent to which body fatness and biomarkers of various biologically plausible pathways account for the association between physical activity and colon cancer. Methods: We conducted a nested case-control study in a cohort of 519 978 men and women aged 25 to 70 years followed from 1992 to 2003. A total of 713 incident colon cancer cases were matched, using risk-set sampling, to 713 controls on age, sex, study centre, fasting status and hormonal therapy use. The amount of total physical activity during the past year was expressed in metabolic equivalent of task [MET]-h/week. Anthropometric measurements and blood samples were collected at study baseline. Results: High physical activity was associated with a lower risk of colon cancer: relative risk ≥91 MET-h/week vs <91 MET-h/week = 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57 to 0.96]. In mediation analyses, this association was accounted for by waist circumference: proportion explained effect (PEE) = 17%; CI: 4% to 52%; and the biomarkers soluble leptin receptor (sOB-R): PEE = 15%; 95% CI: 1% to 50% and 5-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D): PEE = 30%; 95% CI: 12% to 88%. In combination, these factors explained 45% (95% CI: 20% to 125%) of the association. Beyond waist circumference, sOB-R and 25[OH]D additionally explained 10% (95% CI: 1%; 56%) and 23% (95% CI: 6%; 111%) of the association, respectively. Conclusions: Promoting physical activity, particularly outdoors, and maintaining metabolic health and adequate vitamin D levels could represent a promising strategy for colon cancer prevention.

Identification of Serum Metabolites Associated With Incident Hypertension in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Potsdam Study.

Metabolomics is a promising tool to gain new insights into early metabolic alterations preceding the development of hypertension in humans. We therefore aimed to identify metabolites associated with incident hypertension using measured data of serum metabolites of the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study. Targeted metabolic profiling was conducted on serum blood samples of a randomly drawn EPIC-Potsdam subcohort consisting of 135 cases and 981 noncases of incident hypertension, all of them being free of hypertension and not on antihypertensive therapy at the time of blood sampling. Mean follow-up was 9.9 years. A validated set of 127 metabolites was statistically analyzed with a random survival forest backward selection algorithm to identify predictive metabolites of incident hypertension taking into account important epidemiological hypertension risk markers. Six metabolites were identified to be most predictive for the development of hypertension. Higher concentrations of serine, glycine, and acyl-alkyl-phosphatidylcholines C42:4 and C44:3 tended to be associated with higher and diacyl-phosphatidylcholines C38:4 and C38:3 with lower predicted 10-year hypertension-free survival, although visualization by partial plots revealed some nonlinearity in the above associations. The identified metabolites improved prediction of incident hypertension when used together with known risk markers of hypertension. In conclusion, these findings indicate that metabolic alterations occur early in the development of hypertension. However, these alterations are confined to a few members of the amino acid or phosphatidylcholine metabolism, respectively.

Random Survival Forest in practice: a method for modelling complex metabolomics data in time to event analysis.

BACKGROUND: The application of metabolomics in prospective cohort studies is statistically challenging. Given the importance of appropriate statistical methods for selection of disease-associated metabolites in highly correlated complex data, we combined random survival forest (RSF) with an automated backward elimination procedure that addresses such issues. METHODS: Our RSF approach was illustrated with data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study, with concentrations of 127 serum metabolites as exposure variables and time to development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) as outcome variable. Out of this data set, Cox regression with a stepwise selection method was recently published. Replication of methodical comparison (RSF and Cox regression) was conducted in two independent cohorts. Finally, the R-code for implementing the metabolite selection procedure into the RSF-syntax is provided. RESULTS: The application of the RSF approach in EPIC-Potsdam resulted in the identification of 16 incident T2D-associated metabolites which slightly improved prediction of T2D when used in addition to traditional T2D risk factors and also when used together with classical biomarkers. The identified metabolites partly agreed with previous findings using Cox regression, though RSF selected a higher number of highly correlated metabolites. CONCLUSIONS: The RSF method appeared to be a promising approach for identification of disease-associated variables in complex data with time to event as outcome. The demonstrated RSF approach provides comparable findings as the generally used Cox regression, but also addresses the problem of multicollinearity and is suitable for high-dimensional data.

Combined effects of smoking and HPV16 in oropharyngeal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Although smoking and HPV infection are recognized as important risk factors for oropharyngeal cancer, how their joint exposure impacts on oropharyngeal cancer risk is unclear. Specifically, whether smoking confers any additional risk to HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer is not understood. METHODS: Using HPV serology as a marker of HPV-related cancer, we examined the interaction between smoking and HPV16 in 459 oropharyngeal (and 1445 oral cavity and laryngeal) cancer patients and 3024 control participants from two large European multi-centre studies. Odds ratios and credible intervals [CrI], adjusted for potential confounders, were estimated using Bayesian logistic regression. RESULTS: Both smoking [odds ratio (OR [CrI]: 6.82 [4.52, 10.29]) and HPV seropositivity (OR [CrI]: 235.69 [99.95, 555.74]) were independently associated with oropharyngeal cancer. The joint association of smoking and HPV seropositivity was consistent with that expected on the additive scale (synergy index [CrI]: 1.32 [0.51, 3.45]), suggesting they act as independent risk factors for oropharyngeal cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking was consistently associated with increase in oropharyngeal cancer risk in models stratified by HPV16 seropositivity. In addition, we report that the prevalence of oropharyngeal cancer increases with smoking for both HPV16-positive and HPV16-negative persons. The impact of smoking on HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer highlights the continued need for smoking cessation programmes for primary prevention of head and neck cancer.