Human daily dietary intakes of antibiotic residues: Dominant sources and health risks.

Antibiotic use in crops is an emerging concern, however, human exposure to antibiotics residues through consumption of plant-derived food has generally been neglected. This study is a comprehensive evaluation based on full consideration of exposure sources and analysis for nearly 100 antibiotics. A total of 58 antibiotic compounds were detected in drinking water (n = 66) and 49 in food samples (n = 150) from Shenzhen, China. The probable daily intake from drinking water and food consumption based on the total concentration of all the detected antibiotic compounds was 310, 200, and 130 ng/kg-body weight/day for preschool children, adolescents, and adults, with a maximum of up to 1400, 970 and 530 ng/kg-bw/day, respectively. Consumption of plant-derived food products, rather than animal-derived food, was the main source of the daily intake, and drinking water was a minor source. Risk assessment suggested a potentially unacceptable health risk from daily intake of norfloxacin, lincomycin and ciprofloxacin. Further research is warranted to alleviate food safety concerns related to antibiotic residues in plant-derived and animal-derived food products.

Efficient, parallelized global optimization of groundwater pumping in a regional aquifer with land subsidence constraints.

The design of groundwater exploitation schedules with constraints on pumping-induced land subsidence is a computationally intensive task. Physical process-based groundwater flow and land subsidence simulations are high-dimensional, nonlinear, dynamic and computationally demanding, as they require solving large systems of partial differential equations (PDEs). This work is the first application of a parallelized surrogate-based global optimization algorithm to mitigate land subsidence issues by controlling the pumping schedule of multiple groundwater wellfields over space and time. The application was demonstrated in a 6500 km2 region in China, involving a large-scale coupled groundwater flow-land subsidence model that is computationally expensive in terms of computational resources, including runtime and CPU memory for one single evaluation. In addition, the optimization problem contains 50 decision variables and up to 13 constraints, which adds to the computational effort, thus an efficient optimization is required. The results show that parallel DYSOC (dynamic search with surrogate-based constrained optimization) can achieve an approximately 100% parallel efficiency when upscaling computing resources. Compared with two other widely used optimization algorithms, DYSOC is 2-6 times faster, achieving computational cost savings of at least 50%. The findings demonstrate that the integration of surrogate constraints and dynamic search process can aid in the exploration and exploitation of the search space and accelerate the search for optimal solutions to complicated problems.

A data-driven approach to exploring the causal relationships between distributed pumping activities and aquifer drawdown.

Groundwater depletion, typically caused by the distributed pumping activities of multiple stakeholders (i.e., water users) that share a hydrologically connected aquifer, has led to severe environmental and ecological problems in many river basins worldwide. Conventionally, the effects of pumping on aquifer depletion are quantified using well hydraulics or physically based hydrological models in groundwater management. However, the derivation of well hydraulics-based analytical solutions requires numerous simplifying assumptions, while the construction and calibration of a physically based groundwater flow model require detailed information about the subsurface properties, which are subject to large uncertainties. In this study, we develop a novel modeling framework that does not rely on well hydraulics or groundwater flow models. The proposed framework integrates (1) a deep learning model that captures the spatiotemporal variations in the aquifer in response to distributed pumping activities in multiple well fields and (2) a statistical causal inference model that identifies the causal networks among stakeholders to quantify the causal effects of individual pumping activities on aquifer depletion. The proposed framework is tested on a synthetic case study site with well fields that have various spatial distributions and pumping rates. The modeling results show that the deep learning method can effectively capture the water table dynamics influenced by distributed pumping activities with R2 >90 % for all observation data. More importantly, our model is capable of assessing the causal networks between the drawdown of water table and the pumping activities of multiple well fields and quantifying their causal strengths. These results suggest that our modeling framework can be used to explicitly assess the extent to which each individual stakeholder's pumping activities contribute to aquifer depletion at the system level. The concepts and techniques developed in this study can be used to resolve classic externality problems in the context of common-pool groundwater management.

How do social media and individual behaviors affect epidemic transmission and control?

In the outbreak of infectious diseases such as COVID-19, social media channels are important tools for the public to obtain information and form their opinions on infection risk, which can affect their disease prevention behaviors and the consequent disease transmission processes. However, there has been a lack of theoretical investigation into how social media and human behaviors jointly affect the spread of infectious diseases. In this study, we develop an agent-based modeling framework that couples (1) a general opinion dynamics model that describes how individuals form their opinions on epidemic risk with various information sources, (2) a behavioral adoption model that simulates the adoption of disease prevention behaviors, and (3) an epidemiological SEIR model that simulates the spread of diseases in a host population. Through simulating the spread of a coronavirus-like disease in a hypothetical residential area, the modeling results show that social media can make a community more sensitive to external drivers. Social media can increase the public's awareness of infection risk, which is beneficial for epidemic containment, when high-quality epidemic information exists at the early stage of pandemics. However, fabricated and fake news on social media, after a "latent period", can lead to a significant increase in infection rate. The modeling results provide scientific evidence for the intricate interplay between social media and human behaviors in epidemic dynamics and control, and highlight the importance of public education to promote behavioral changes and the need to correct misinformation and fake news on social media in a timely manner.