UMOYA: a prospective longitudinal cohort study to evaluate novel diagnostic tools and to assess long-term impact on lung health in South African children with presumptive pulmonary TB-a study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Despite a high paediatric tuberculosis (TB) burden globally, sensitive and specific diagnostic tools are lacking. In addition, no data exist on the impact of pulmonary TB on long-term child lung health in low- and middle-income countries. The prospective observational UMOYA study aims (1) to build a state-of-the-art clinical, radiological, and biological repository of well-characterised children with presumptive pulmonary TB as a platform for future studies to explore new emerging diagnostic tools and biomarkers for early diagnosis and treatment response; and (2) to investigate the short and long-term impact of pulmonary TB on lung health and quality of life in children. METHODS: We will recruit up to 600 children (0-13 years) with presumptive pulmonary TB and 100 healthy controls. Recruitment started in November 2017 and is expected to continue until May 2023. Sputum and non-sputum-based samples are collected at enrolment and during follow-up in TB cases and symptomatic controls. TB treatment is started by routine care services. Intensive follow-up for 6 months will allow for TB cases to retrospectively be classified according to international consensus clinical case definitions for TB. Long-term follow-up, including imaging, comprehensive assessment of lung function and quality of life questionnaires, are done yearly up to 4 years after recruitment. DISCUSSION: The UMOYA study will provide a unique platform to evaluate new emerging diagnostic tools and biomarkers for early diagnosis and treatment response and to investigate long-term outcomes of pulmonary TB and other respiratory events on lung health in children.

Effect of Universal Testing and Treatment on HIV Incidence - HPTN 071 (PopART).

BACKGROUND: A universal testing and treatment strategy is a potential approach to reduce the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, yet previous trial results are inconsistent. METHODS: In the HPTN 071 (PopART) community-randomized trial conducted from 2013 through 2018, we randomly assigned 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa (total population, approximately 1 million) to group A (combination prevention intervention with universal antiretroviral therapy [ART]), group B (the prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines [universal since 2016]), or group C (standard care). The prevention intervention included home-based HIV testing delivered by community workers, who also supported linkage to HIV care and ART adherence. The primary outcome, HIV incidence between months 12 and 36, was measured in a population cohort of approximately 2000 randomly sampled adults (18 to 44 years of age) per community. Viral suppression (<400 copies of HIV RNA per milliliter) was assessed in all HIV-positive participants at 24 months. RESULTS: The population cohort included 48,301 participants. Baseline HIV prevalence was 21% or 22% in each group. Between months 12 and 36, a total of 553 new HIV infections were observed during 39,702 person-years (1.4 per 100 person-years; women, 1.7; men, 0.8). The adjusted rate ratio for group A as compared with group C was 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 1.18; P = 0.51) and for group B as compared with group C was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.88; P = 0.006). The percentage of HIV-positive participants with viral suppression at 24 months was 71.9% in group A, 67.5% in group B, and 60.2% in group C. The estimated percentage of HIV-positive adults in the community who were receiving ART at 36 months was 81% in group A and 80% in group B. CONCLUSIONS: A combination prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines resulted in a 30% lower incidence of HIV infection than standard care. The lack of effect with universal ART was unanticipated and not consistent with the data on viral suppression. In this trial setting, universal testing and treatment reduced the population-level incidence of HIV infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; HPTN 071 [PopArt] ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01900977.).

The Impact of the Evolving Human Immunodeficiency Virus Response on the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in South African Children and Adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have evaluated tuberculosis control in children and adolescents. We used routine tuberculosis surveillance data to quantify age- and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-stratified trends over time and investigate the relationship between tuberculosis, HIV, age, and sex. METHODS: All children and adolescents (0-19 years) routinely treated for drug-susceptible tuberculosis in South Africa and recorded in a de-duplicated national electronic tuberculosis treatment register (2004-2016) were included. Age- and HIV-stratified tuberculosis case notification rates (CNRs) were calculated in four age bands: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 years. The association between HIV infection, age, and sex in children and adolescents with tuberculosis was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 719 400 children and adolescents included, 339 112 (47%) were 0-4 year olds. The overall tuberculosis CNR for 0-19 year olds declined by 54% between 2009 and 2016 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], .45-.47). Trends varied by age and HIV, with the smallest reductions (2013-2016) in HIV-positive 0-4 year olds (IRR = 0.90; 95% CI, .85-.95) and both HIV-positive (IRR = .84; 95% CI, .80-.88) and HIV-negative (IRR = 0.89; 95% CI, .86-.92) 15-19 year olds. Compared with 0- to 4-year-old males, odds of HIV coinfection among 15-19 year olds were nearly twice as high in females (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.49; 95% CI, 2.38-2.60) than in males (aOR = 1.35; 95% CI, 1.29-1.42). CONCLUSIONS: South Africa's national response to the HIV epidemic has made a substantial contribution to the observed declining trends in tuberculosis CNRs in children and adolescents. The slow decline of tuberculosis CNRs in adolescents and young HIV-positive children is concerning. Understanding how tuberculosis affects children and adolescents beyond conventional age bands and by sex can inform targeted tuberculosis control strategies.

Understanding the Time Needed to Link to Care and Start ART in Seven HPTN 071 (PopART) Study Communities in Zambia and South Africa.

To achieve UNAIDS 90:90:90 targets at population-level, knowledge of HIV status must be followed by timely linkage to care, initiation and maintenance of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all people living with HIV (PLHIV). Interpreting quantitative patterns using qualitative data, we investigate time taken to link to care and initiate ART amongst individuals aware of their HIV-status in high HIV-prevalence urban communities in the HPTN 071 (PopART) study, a community-randomised trial of a combination HIV prevention package, including universal testing and treatment, in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa. Data are drawn from the seven intervention communities where immediate ART irrespective if CD4 count was offered from the trial-start in 2014. Median time from HIV-diagnosis to ART initiation reduced after 2 years of delivering the intervention from 10 to 6 months in both countries but varied by gender and community of residence. Social and health system realities impact decisions made by PLHIV about ART initiation.

Complementary surveillance strategies are needed to better characterise the epidemiology, care pathways and treatment outcomes of tuberculosis in children.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) in young and HIV-infected children is frequently diagnosed at hospital level. In settings where general hospitals do not function as TB reporting units, the burden and severity of childhood TB may not be accurately reflected in routine TB surveillance data. Given the paucibacillary nature of childhood TB, microbiological surveillance alone will miss the majority of hospital-managed children. The study objective was to combine complementary hospital-based surveillance strategies to accurately report the burden, spectrum and outcomes of childhood TB managed at referral hospital-level in a high TB burden setting. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study including all children (< 13 years) managed for TB at a large referral hospital in Cape Town, South Africa during 2012. Children were identified through newly implemented clinical surveillance in addition to existing laboratory surveillance. Data were collected from clinical patient records, the National Health Laboratory Service database, and provincial electronic TB registers. Descriptive statistics were used to report overall TB disease burden, spectrum, care pathways and treatment outcomes. Univariate analysis compared characteristics between children identified through the two hospital-based surveillance strategies to characterise the group of children missed by existing laboratory surveillance. RESULTS: During 2012, 395 children (180 [45.6%] < 2 years) were managed for TB. Clinical surveillance identified 237 (60%) children in addition to laboratory surveillance. Ninety (24.3%) children were HIV co-infected; 113 (29.5%) had weight-for-age z-scores <- 3. Extra-pulmonary TB (EPTB) was diagnosed in 188 (47.6%); 77 (19.5%) with disseminated TB. Favourable TB treatment outcomes were reported in 300/344 (87.2%) children with drug-susceptible and 50/51 (98.0%) children with drug-resistant TB. Older children (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.0-2.8), children with EPTB (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.5-3.6) and in-hospital deaths (OR 5.4; 95% CI 1.1-26.9) were more frequently detected by laboratory surveillance. TB/HIV co-infected children were less likely to be identified through laboratory surveillance (OR 0.3; 95% CI 0.2-0.5). CONCLUSIONS: The burden and spectrum of childhood TB disease managed at referral hospital level in high burden settings is substantial. Hospital-based surveillance in addition to routine TB surveillance is essential to provide a complete picture of the burden, spectrum and impact of childhood TB in settings where hospitals are not TB reporting units.

Excellent Treatment Outcomes in Children Treated for Tuberculosis Under Routine Operational Conditions in Cape Town, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of death in children globally. It is recognized that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection increases the risk of developing TB, but our understanding of the impact of HIV on risk of mortality for children treated for TB is limited. We aimed to identify predictors of mortality in children treated for drug-susceptible TB. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of all children (<15 years of age) routinely treated between 2005 and 2012 for drug-susceptible TB in Cape Town was conducted using the programmatic electronic TB treatment database. Survival analysis using Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios for death. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of unfavorable outcomes. RESULTS: Of 29519 children treated for and notified with TB over the study period, <1% died during TB treatment and 89.5% were cured or completed treatment. The proportion of children with known HIV status increased from 13% in 2005 to 95% in 2012. Children aged <2 years had an increased hazard of death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 3.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.78-5.52) and greater odds of unfavorable outcome (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.24-1.66) compared with children aged 10-14 years. HIV-infected children had increased mortality compared to HIV-negative children (aHR, 6.85; 95% CI, 4.60-10.19) and increased odds of unfavorable outcome (aOR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.81-2.23). Later year of TB treatment was a protective predictor for both mortality and unfavorable outcome. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate a dramatic improvement in HIV testing in children with TB over time and excellent overall treatment outcomes. HIV infection and young age were associated with increased risk of death and unfavorable outcome.

Patient Diagnostic Rate as Indicator of Tuberculosis Case Detection, South Africa.

To address the uncertainty of the indirectly measured tuberculosis case detection rate, we used survey data stratified by HIV status to calculate the patient diagnostic rate, a directly measurable indicator, in 8 communities in South Africa. Rates were lower among HIV-negative than HIV-positive persons. Tuberculosis programs should focus on HIV-negative persons.

The complex relationship between human immunodeficiency virus infection and death in adults being treated for tuberculosis in Cape Town, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Despite recognised treatment strategies, mortality associated with tuberculosis (TB) remains significant. Risk factors for death during TB treatment have been described but the complex relationship between TB and HIV has not been fully understood. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of all deaths occurring during TB treatment in Cape Town, South Africa between 2009 and 2012 were done to investigate risk factors associated with this outcome. The main risk factor was HIV status at the start of treatment and its interaction with age, sex and other risk factors were evaluated using a binomial regression model and thus relative risks (RR) are reported. RESULTS: Overall in the 93,133 cases included in the study 4619 deaths (5%) were recorded. Across all age groups HIV-positive patients were more than twice as likely to die as HIV-negative patients, RR = 2.19 (95% CI: 2.03-2.37). However in an age specific analysis HIV-positive patients 15-24 and 25-34 years old were at an even higher risk of dying than HIV-negative patients, RR = 4.82 and RR = 3.76 respectively. Gender also modified the effect of HIV- with positive women having a higher risk of death than positive men, RR = 2.74 and RR = 1.94 respectively. CONCLUSION: HIV carries an increased risk of death in this study but specific high-risk groups pertaining to the impact of HIV are identified. Innovative strategies to manage these high risk groups may contribute to reduction in HIV-associated death in TB patients.

The temporal dynamics of relapse and reinfection tuberculosis after successful treatment: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence from tuberculosis high-burden settings that exogenous reinfection contributes considerably to recurrent disease. However, large longitudinal studies of endogenous reactivation (relapse) and reinfection tuberculosis are lacking. We hypothesize a relationship between relapse vs reinfection and the time between treatment completion and recurrent disease. METHODS: Population-based retrospective cohort study on all smear-positive tuberculosis cases successfully treated between 1996 and 2008 in a suburban setting in Cape Town, South Africa. Inverse gaussian distributions were fitted to observed annual rates of relapse and reinfection, distinguished by DNA fingerprinting of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains recultured from diagnostic samples. RESULTS: Paired DNA fingerprint data were available for 130 (64%) of 203 recurrent smear-positive tuberculosis cases in the 13-year study period. Reinfection accounted for 66 (51%) of 130 recurrent cases overall, 9 (20%) of 44 recurrent cases within the first year, and 57 (66%) of 86 thereafter (P < .001). The relapse rate peaked at 3.93% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.35%-5.96%) per annum 0.35 (95% CI, .15-.45) years after treatment completion. The reinfection tuberculosis rate peaked at 1.58% (95% CI, .94%-2.46%) per annum 1.20 (95% CI, .55-1.70) years after completion. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study of sufficient size and duration using DNA fingerprinting to investigate tuberculosis relapse and reinfection over a lengthy period. Relapse occurred early after treatment completion, whereas reinfection dominated after 1 year and accounted for at least half of recurrent disease. This temporal relationship may explain the high variability in reinfection observed across smaller studies. We speculate that follow-up time in antituberculosis drug trials should take reinfection into account.

Effect of household and community interventions on the burden of tuberculosis in southern Africa: the ZAMSTAR community-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Southern Africa has had an unprecedented increase in the burden of tuberculosis, driven by the HIV epidemic. The Zambia, South Africa Tuberculosis and AIDS Reduction (ZAMSTAR) trial examined two public health interventions that aimed to reduce the burden of tuberculosis by facilitating either rapid sputum diagnosis or integrating tuberculosis and HIV services within the community. METHODS: ZAMSTAR was a community-randomised trial done in Zambia and the Western Cape province of South Africa. Two interventions, community-level enhanced tuberculosis case-finding (ECF) and household level tuberculosis-HIV care, were implemented between Aug 1, 2006, and July 31, 2009, and assessed in a 2×2 factorial design between Jan 9, 2010, and Dec 6, 2010. All communities had a strengthened tuberculosis-HIV programme implemented in participating health-care centres. 24 communities, selected according to population size and tuberculosis notification rate, were randomly allocated to one of four study groups using a randomisation schedule stratified by country and baseline prevalence of tuberculous infection: group 1 strengthened tuberculosis-HIV programme at the clinic alone; group 2, clinic plus ECF; group 3, clinic plus household intervention; and group 4, clinic plus ECF and household interventions. The primary outcome was the prevalence of culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in adults (≥18 years), defined as Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolated from one respiratory sample, measured 4 years after the start of interventions in a survey of 4000 randomly selected adults in each community in 2010. The secondary outcome was the incidence of tuberculous infection, measured using tuberculin skin testing in a cohort of schoolchildren, a median of 4 years after a baseline survey done before the start of interventions. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN36729271. FINDINGS: Prevalence of tuberculosis was evaluated in 64,463 individuals randomly selected from the 24 communities; 894 individuals had active tuberculosis. Averaging over the 24 communities, the geometric mean of tuberculosis prevalence was 832 per 100,000 population. The adjusted prevalence ratio for the comparison of ECF versus non-ECF intervention groups was 1·09 (95% CI 0·86-1·40) and of household versus non-household intervention groups was 0·82 (0·64-1·04). The incidence of tuberculous infection was measured in a cohort of 8809 children, followed up for a median of 4 years; the adjusted rate ratio for ECF versus non-ECF groups was 1·36 (95% CI 0·59-3·14) and for household versus non-household groups was 0·45 (0·20-1·05). INTERPRETATION: Although neither intervention led to a statistically significant reduction in tuberculosis, two independent indicators of burden provide some evidence of a reduction in tuberculosis among communities receiving the household intervention. By contrast the ECF intervention had no effect on either outcome. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Correction: Early mortality in tuberculosis patients initially lost to follow up following diagnosis in provincial hospitals and primary health care facilities in Western Cape, South Africa.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252084.].

Impaired lung function in adolescents with pulmonary tuberculosis during treatment and following treatment completion.

Background: Little is known about post-tuberculosis lung disease in adolescents. We prospectively assessed lung function in adolescents with microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis during treatment and after treatment completion. Methods: In a prospective study, we enrolled adolescents diagnosed with microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis and healthy tuberculosis-exposed household controls, between October 2020 and July 2021 in Cape Town, South Africa. Spirometry, plethysmography, diffusion capacity lung function tests and 6-min walking test (6MWT) were completed according to international guidelines 2 months into treatment and following treatment completion. Abnormal lung function was defined as abnormal spirometry (z-score < -1.64 for forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and/or forced vital capacity (FVC) and/or FEV1/FVC), plethysmography (total lung capacity (TLC) < 80% of predicted, residual volume over TLC of >45%) and/or diffusion capacity (DLCO z-score < -1.64). Findings: One-hundred adolescents were enrolled; 50 (50%) with tuberculosis and 50 (50%) healthy tuberculosis-exposed controls. Of the 50 adolescents with tuberculosis, ten had multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Mean age of the group was 14.9 years (SD 2.7), 6 (6.0%) were living with HIV and 9 (9.0%) were previously treated for tuberculosis. Lung function improved over time; during treatment abnormal lung function was found in 76% of adolescents with tuberculosis, compared to 65% after treatment completion. Spirometry indices were lower in adolescents with tuberculosis compared to controls, both at 2 months and after treatment completion. Plethysmography in adolescents with tuberculosis showed that air-trapping was more common during treatment than in controls (12% vs 0%, respectively, p = 0.017); which improved following treatment completion. Adolescents with tuberculosis both during and after treatment completion walked a shorter distance than controls. Interpretation: Adolescents with tuberculosis have impaired lung function even after treatment completion. It is crucial to include adolescents in trials on the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis-associated respiratory morbidity. Funding: EDCTP, National Institute of Health, Medical Research Council, BMBF.

Association between tuberculosis and pregnancy outcomes: a retrospective cohort study of women in Cape Town, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of mortality among women of childbearing age and a significant contributor to maternal mortality. Pregnant women with TB are at high risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. This study aimed to determine risk factors for an adverse pregnancy outcome among pregnant women diagnosed with TB. METHODS: Using TB programmatic data, this retrospective cohort analysis included all women who were routinely diagnosed with TB in the public sector between October 2018 and March 2020 in two health subdistricts of Cape Town, and who were documented to be pregnant during their TB episode. Adverse pregnancy outcome was defined as either a live birth of an infant weighing <2500 g and/or with a gestation period <37 weeks or as stillbirth, miscarriage, termination of pregnancy, maternal or early neonatal death. Demographics, TB and pregnancy characteristics were described by HIV status. Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcome. RESULTS: Of 248 pregnant women, half (52%) were living with HIV; all were on antiretroviral therapy at the time of their TB diagnosis. Pregnancy outcomes were documented in 215 (87%) women, of whom 74 (34%) had an adverse pregnancy outcome. Being older (35-44 years vs 25-34 years (adjusted OR (aOR): 3.99; 95% CI: 1.37 to 11.57), living with HIV (aOR: 2.72; 95% CI: 0.99 to 4.63), having an unfavourable TB outcome (aOR: 2.29; 95% CI: 1.03 to 5.08) and having presented to antenatal services ≤1 month prior to delivery (aOR: 10.57; 95% CI: 4.01 to 27.89) were associated with higher odds of an adverse pregnancy outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Pregnancy outcomes among women with TB were poor, irrespective of HIV status. Pregnant women with TB are a complex population who need additional support prior to, during and after TB treatment to improve TB treatment and pregnancy outcomes. Pregnancy status should be considered for inclusion in TB registries.

Reducing Initial Loss to Follow-up Among People With Bacteriologically Confirmed Tuberculosis: LINKEDin, a Quasi-experimental Study in South Africa.

Every person diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) needs to initiate treatment. The World Health Organization estimated that 61% of people who developed TB in 2021 were included in a TB treatment registration system. Initial loss to follow-up (ILTFU) is the loss of persons to care between diagnosis and treatment initiation/registration. LINKEDin, a quasi-experimental study, evaluated the effect of 2 interventions (hospital recording and an alert-and-response patient management intervention) in 6 subdistricts across 3 high-TB burden provinces of South Africa. Using integrated electronic reports, we identified all persons diagnosed with TB (Xpert MTB/RIF positive) in the hospital and at primary health care facilities. We prospectively determined linkage to care at 30 days after TB diagnosis. We calculated the risk of ILTFU during the baseline and intervention periods and the relative risk reduction in ILTFU between these periods. We found a relative reduction in ILTFU of 42.4% (95% CI, 28.5%-53.7%) in KwaZulu Natal (KZN) and 22.3% (95% CI, 13.3%-30.4%) in the Western Cape (WC), with no significant change in Gauteng. In KZN and the WC, the relative reduction in ILTFU appeared greater in subdistricts where the alert-and-response patient management intervention was implemented (KZN: 49.3%; 95% CI, 32.4%-62%; vs 32.2%; 95% CI, 5.4%-51.4%; and WC: 34.2%; 95% CI, 20.9%-45.3%; vs 13.4%; 95% CI, 0.7%-24.4%). We reported a notable reduction in ILTFU in 2 provinces using existing routine health service data and applying a simple intervention to trace and recall those not linked to care. TB programs need to consider ILTFU a priority and develop interventions specific to their context to ensure improved linkage to care.

Associations between HIV stigma and health-related quality-of-life among people living with HIV: cross-sectional analysis of data from HPTN 071 (PopART).

People living with HIV (PLHIV) report lower health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) than HIV-negative people. HIV stigma may contribute to this. We explored the association between HIV stigma and HRQoL among PLHIV. We used cross-sectional data from 3991 randomly selected PLHIV who were surveyed in 2017-2018 for HPTN 071 (PopART), a cluster randomised trial in Zambia and South Africa. Participants were 18-44 years, had laboratory-confirmed HIV infection, and knew their status. HRQoL was measured using the EuroQol-5-dimensions-5-levels (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire. Stigma outcomes included: internalised stigma, stigma experienced in the community, and stigma experienced in healthcare settings. Associations were examined using logistic regression. Participants who had experienced community stigma (n = 693/3991) had higher odds of reporting problems in at least one HRQoL domain, compared to those who had not (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 1.51, 95% confidence interval, 95% Cl: 1.16-1.98, p = 0.002). Having experienced internalised stigma was also associated with reporting problems in at least one HRQoL domain (n = 552/3991, aOR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.54-2.54, p < 0.001). However, having experienced stigma in a healthcare setting was less common (n = 158/3991) and not associated with HRQoL (aOR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.68-1.58, p = 0.850). A stronger focus on interventions for internalised stigma and stigma experienced in the community is required.

A systematic review of risk factors for mortality among tuberculosis patients in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB)-associated mortality in South Africa remains high. This review aimed to systematically assess risk factors associated with death during TB treatment in South African patients. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of TB research articles published between 2010 and 2018. We searched BioMed Central (BMC), PubMed®, EBSCOhost, Cochrane, and SCOPUS for publications between January 2010 and December 2018. Searches were conducted between August 2019 and October 2019. We included randomised control trials (RCTs), case control, cross sectional, retrospective, and prospective cohort studies where TB mortality was a primary endpoint and effect measure estimates were provided for risk factors for TB mortality during TB treatment. Due to heterogeneity in effect measures and risk factors evaluated, a formal meta-analysis of risk factors for TB mortality was not appropriate. A random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for all studies and for specific subgroups so that these could be compared. Quality assessments were performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale or the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. RESULTS: We identified 1995 titles for screening, 24 publications met our inclusion criteria (one cross-sectional study, 2 RCTs, and 21 cohort studies). Twenty-two studies reported on adults (n = 12561) and two were restricted to children < 15 years of age (n = 696). The CFR estimated for all studies was 26.4% (CI 18.1-34.7, n = 13257 ); 37.5% (CI 24.8-50.3, n = 5149) for drug-resistant (DR) TB; 12.5% (CI 1.1-23.9, n = 1935) for drug-susceptible (DS) TB; 15.6% (CI 8.1-23.2, n = 6173) for studies in which drug susceptibility was mixed or not specified; 21.3% (CI 15.3-27.3, n = 7375) for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV); 19.2% (CI 7.7-30.7, n = 1691) in HIV-negative TB patients; and 6.8% (CI 4.9-8.7, n = 696) in paediatric studies. The main risk factors associated with TB mortality were HIV infection, prior TB treatment, DR-TB, and lower body weight at TB diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: In South Africa, overall mortality during TB treatment remains high, people with DR-TB have an elevated risk of mortality during TB treatment and interventions to mitigate high mortality are needed. In addition, better prospective data on TB mortality are needed, especially amongst vulnerable sub-populations including young children, adolescents, pregnant women, and people with co-morbidities other than HIV. Limitations included a lack of prospective studies and RCTs and a high degree of heterogeneity in risk factors and comparator variables. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: The systematic review protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) under the registration number CRD42018108622. This study was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Investment ID OPP1173131) via the South African TB Think Tank.

Impact of universal testing and treatment on sexual risk behaviour and herpes simplex virus type 2: a prespecified secondary outcomes analysis of the HPTN 071 (PopART) community-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive HIV prevention strategies have raised concerns that knowledge of interventions to reduce risk of HIV infection might mitigate an individual's perception of risk, resulting in riskier sexual behaviour. We investigated the prespecified secondary outcomes of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial to determine whether a combination HIV prevention strategy, including universal HIV testing and treatment, changed sexual behaviour; specifically, we investigated whether there was evidence of sexual risk compensation. METHODS: HPTN 071 (PopART) was a cluster-randomised trial conducted during 2013-18, in which we randomly assigned 21 communities with high HIV prevalence in Zambia and South Africa (total population, approximately 1 million) to combination prevention intervention with universal antiretroviral therapy (ART; arm A), prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines (universal since 2016; arm B), or standard of care (arm C). The trial included a population cohort of approximately 2000 randomly selected adults (aged 18-44 years) in each community (N=38 474 at baseline) who were followed up for 36 months. A prespecified secondary objective was to evaluate the impact of the PopART intervention compared with standard of care on herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and sexual behaviour (N=20 422 completed final visit). Secondary endpoints included differences in sexual risk behaviour measures at 36 months and were assessed using a two-stage method for matched cluster-randomised trials. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials. gov, number NCT01900977. FINDINGS: The PopART intervention did not substantially change probability of self-reported multiple sex partners, sexual debut, or pregnancy in women at 36 months. Adjusted for baseline community prevalence, reported condomless sex was significantly lower in arm A versus arm C (adjusted prevalence ratio 0·80 [95% CI 0·64-0·99]; p=0·04) but not in arm B versus arm C (0·94 [0·76-1·17]; p=0·55). 3-year HSV-2 incidence was reduced in arm B versus arm C (adjusted risk ratio 0·76 [95% CI 0·63-0·92]; p=0·010); no significant change was shown between arm A versus arm C (0·89 [0·73-1·08]; p=0·199). INTERPRETATION: We found little evidence of any change in sexual behaviour owing to the PopART interventions, and reassuringly for public health, we saw no evidence of sexual risk compensation. The findings do not help to explain the differences between the two intervention groups of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institutes of Health, the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and the Medical Research Council UK.

The association between HIV stigma and HIV incidence in the context of universal testing and treatment: analysis of data from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial in Zambia and South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: To investigate the association between individual and community-level measures of HIV stigma and HIV incidence within the 21 communities participating in the HPTN (071) PopART trial in Zambia and South Africa. METHODS: Secondary analysis of data from a population-based cohort followed-up over 36 months between 2013 and 2018. The outcome was rate of incident HIV infection among individuals who were HIV negative at cohort entry. Individual-level exposures, measured in a random sample of all participants, were: (1) perception of stigma in the community, (2) perception of stigma in health settings and (3) fear and judgement towards people living with HIV. Individual-level analyses were conducted with adjusted, individual-level Poisson regression. Community-level HIV stigma exposures drew on data reported by people living with HIV, health workers and community members. We used linear regression to explore the association between HIV stigma and community-level HIV incidence. RESULTS: Among 8172 individuals who were HIV negative and answered individual-level stigma questions at enrolment to the cohort, there was no evidence of a statistically significant association between any domain of HIV stigma and risk of incident HIV infection. Among the full cohort of 26,110 individuals among whom HIV incidence was measured, there was no evidence that community-level HIV incidence was associated with any domain of HIV stigma. CONCLUSIONS: HIV stigma is often cited as a barrier to the effectiveness of HIV prevention programming. However, in the setting for the HPTN 071 "PopART trial," measured stigma alone was not associated with the risk of HIV infection.

Clinical characteristics associated with mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit of a tertiary hospital in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Over 130 million people have been diagnosed with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and more than one million fatalities have been reported worldwide. South Africa is unique in having a quadruple disease burden of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis, making COVID-19-related mortality of particular interest in the country. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical characteristics and associated mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) in a South African setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a prospective observational study of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection admitted to the ICU of a South African tertiary hospital in Cape Town. The mortality and discharge rates were the primary outcomes. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were analysed, and multivariable robust Poisson regression model was used to identify risk factors for mortality. Furthermore, Cox proportional hazards regression model was performed to assess the association between time to death and the predictor variables. Factors associated with death (time to death) at p-value < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Of the 402 patients admitted to the ICU, 250 (62%) died, and another 12 (3%) died in the hospital after being discharged from the ICU. The median age of the study population was 54.1 years (IQR: 46.0-61.6). The mortality rate among those who were intubated was significantly higher at 201/221 (91%). After adjusting for confounding, multivariable robust Poisson regression analysis revealed that age more than 48 years, requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, HIV status, procalcitonin (PCT), Troponin T, Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST), and a low pH on admission all significantly predicted mortality. Three main risk factors predictive of mortality were identified in the analysis using Cox regression Cox proportional hazards regression model. HIV positive status, myalgia, and intubated in the ICU were identified as independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU was high. Older age, the need for invasive mechanical ventilation, HIV status, and metabolic acidosis were found to be significant predictors of mortality in patients admitted to the ICU.

Tuberculosis in persons with sudden unexpected death, in Cape Town, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Globally, tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the leading causes of death from a single infectious agent, but there has been little work to estimate mortality before the diagnosis of TB. We investigated the burden of diagnosed and undiagnosed TB in adult and child sudden unexpected deaths (SUDs) evaluated at Tygerberg Forensic Pathology Services, South Africa. METHODS: In a retrospective descriptive study spanning 2016, we identified all SUDs where active TB was detected at post-mortem and matched with routine health service data to differentiate decedents who were diagnosed or undiagnosed with TB before death. A patient pathway analysis of the health service activities preceding SUD in adults with active TB was conducted. RESULTS: Active TB was identified at post-mortem in 6.2% (48/770) of SUDs and was undiagnosed before death in 91.7% (44/48). The prevalence of active TB was 8.1% in adult SUDs (90.1% undiagnosed before SUD) and 1.8% in children (none diagnosed before SUD). Patient pathway analysis was possible for 15 adult SUDs, and this documented primary health care clinic attendances and hospital admissions in the six months preceding death and missed opportunities for TB investigations. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of TB among SUDs in the Eastern Metro of Cape Town is high. Most active TB at post-mortem was undiagnosed before death, and multiple missed opportunities for TB investigation and diagnosis were noted. The systematic evaluation of all SUDs for TB could improve the reporting of undiagnosed TB and support risk mitigation for healthcare workers involved with the post-mortem process.