Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development.

The opioid crisis is a major public health challenge in the United States, killing about 70,000 people in 2020 alone. Long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects on drug-use behavior create dynamic complexity, complicating policy decision-making. In 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine called for a quantitative systems model to help understand and address this complexity and guide policy decisions. Here, we present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), a dynamic simulation model developed in response to that charge. SOURCE tracks the US population aged ≥12 y through the stages of prescription and illicit opioid (e.g., heroin, illicit fentanyl) misuse and use disorder, addiction treatment, remission, and overdose death. Using data spanning from 1999 to 2020, we highlight how risks of drug use initiation and overdose have evolved in response to essential endogenous feedback mechanisms, including: 1) social influence on drug use initiation and escalation among people who use opioids; 2) risk perception and response based on overdose mortality, influencing potential new initiates; and 3) capacity limits on treatment engagement; as well as other drivers, such as 4) supply-side changes in prescription opioid and heroin availability; and 5) the competing influences of illicit fentanyl and overdose death prevention efforts. Our estimates yield a more nuanced understanding of the historical trajectory of the crisis, providing a basis for projecting future scenarios and informing policy planning.

Reducing opioid use disorder and overdose deaths in the United States: A dynamic modeling analysis.

Opioid overdose deaths remain a major public health crisis. We used a system dynamics simulation model of the U.S. opioid-using population age 12 and older to explore the impacts of 11 strategies on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal opioid overdoses from 2022 to 2032. These strategies spanned opioid misuse and OUD prevention, buprenorphine capacity, recovery support, and overdose harm reduction. By 2032, three strategies saved the most lives: (i) reducing the risk of opioid overdose involving fentanyl use, which may be achieved through fentanyl-focused harm reduction services; (ii) increasing naloxone distribution to people who use opioids; and (iii) recovery support for people in remission, which reduced deaths by reducing OUD. Increasing buprenorphine providers' capacity to treat more people decreased fatal overdose, but only in the short term. Our analysis provides insight into the kinds of multifaceted approaches needed to save lives.

A preliminary model of wheelchair service delivery.

OBJECTIVE: To integrate and expand on previously published models of wheelchair service delivery, and provide a preliminary framework for developing more comprehensive, descriptive models of wheelchair service delivery for adults with spinal cord injury within the U.S. health care system. DESIGN: Literature review and a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. SETTING: Not applicable. PARTICIPANTS: Ten academic, clinical, regulatory, and industry experts (Department of Veterans Affairs [VA] and non-VA) in wheelchair service delivery. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Interviewees were asked to discuss the full range of variables and stakeholders involved in wheelchair service delivery, and to limit their scope to the provision of primary subsequent or replacement chairs (not backup chairs) to adults within the United States. RESULTS: Most experts we interviewed stressed that clients who require a wheelchair play a central role in the wheelchair service delivery process. Providers (including clinicians, rehabilitation engineers, and rehabilitation counselors) are also critical stakeholders. More so than in other health care settings, suppliers play an integral role in the provision of wheelchairs to clients and may significantly influence the appropriateness of the wheelchair provided. Suppliers often have a direct role in wheelchair service delivery through their interactions with the clinician and/or client. This model also identified a number of system-level factors (including facility administration and standards, policies, and regulations) that influence wheelchair service delivery and ultimately the appropriateness of the wheelchair provided. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a detailed, descriptive model of wheelchair service delivery that integrates the delivery process and device outcomes, and includes the patient-level, provider-level, and system-level factors that may directly influence those processes and outcomes. We believe that this detailed model can help clinicians and researchers describe and consider the complexities of wheelchair service delivery. It can be used to identify factors that may be related to disparities in wheelchair service delivery and in the appropriateness of the wheelchair prescribed. Further, this model can help researchers and clinicians identify factors that may be related to disparities in wheelchair service delivery, and intervene to reduce such disparities.

The impact of over-the-counter availability of "Plan B" on teens' contraceptive decision making.

In ruling on the over-the-counter status (OTC) of the emergency contraceptive, "Plan B", the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) questioned whether younger adolescent females could adequately self-select and self-medicate. That determination requires a judgment of fact, regarding how increased emergency contraceptive availability would affect adolescents' behavior, and a judgment of values, regarding the acceptability of different outcomes. We present a general approach to such problems, using analytical and empirical methods grounded in behavioral decision research. We illustrate it with findings from 30 in-depth interviews and follow-up surveys, with adolescent females aged 13-19 in the Pittsburgh area reporting how Plan B availability would affect three decisions (having sex, choosing contraceptives, using Plan B). Although the FDA expressed concern about younger teens using Plan B as their primary form of contraception, neither younger nor older teens revealed such an intention. However, teens preferred easier availability, should emergency contraceptive be needed. Incorporating an understanding of teens' decision-related perspectives can make such policies more predictable and transparent.