The synergistic efficacy of hydroxychloroquine with methotrexate is accompanied by increased erythrocyte mean corpuscular volume.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether concomitant HCQ modulates the increase in erythrocyte mean corpuscular volume (MCV) caused by MTX therapy, and whether this is associated with improved clinical response in RA. METHODS: A retrospective observational analysis was conducted on two independent hospital datasets of biologic-naïve, early-RA patients who started oral MTX. Baseline characteristics, DAS28-ESR and monthly MCV after starting MTX were obtained. Conventional and machine-learning statistical approaches were applied to the discovery cohort (Cohort 1, 655 patients) and results validated using Cohort 2 (225 patients). RESULTS: HCQ therapy with MTX was associated with a 2-fold increase in the likelihood of response defined in this study as clinical remission or low disease activity at 6 months (P <0.001). The improved clinical outcome of combination HCQ and MTX therapy was associated with an accelerated rise in MCV from 2 months after commencing therapy. The increase in MCV at 3 months was equivalent to the contemporaneous reduction in the DAS (DAS28-ESR) in predicting clinical response at 6 months. Using latent class mixed modelling, five trajectories of MCV change over 6 months from baseline were identified. The odds ratio of response to treatment was 16.2 (95% CI 5.7, 46.4, P <0.001) in those receiving combination therapy classified within the MCV elevation >5 fl class, which contained the most patients, compared with MTX alone. CONCLUSION: Our data provide mechanistic insight into the synergistic clinical benefit of concomitant HCQ with MTX, boosting the rise in MCV, which could serve as a companion biomarker of treatment response.

Sample size calculation for randomized selection trials with a time-to-event endpoint and a margin of practical equivalence.

Selection trials are used to compare potentially active experimental treatments without a control arm. While sample size calculation methods exist for binary endpoints, no such methods are available for time-to-event endpoints, even though these are ubiquitous in clinical trials. Recent selection trials have begun using progression-free survival as their primary endpoint, but have dichotomized it at a specific time point for sample size calculation and analysis. This changes the clinical question and may reduce power to detect a difference between the arms. In this article, we develop the theory for sample size calculation in selection trials where the time-to-event endpoint is assumed to follow an exponential or Weilbull distribution. We provide a free web application for sample size calculation, as well as an R package, that researchers can use in the design of their studies.

Effectiveness of Belimumab After Rituximab in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus : A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: B-cell depletion with rituximab is commonly used for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) that is refractory to conventional therapy, but it yields variable responses. We hypothesized that high B-cell activating factor (BAFF) levels after rituximab can cause disease flares, thereby limiting its effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: To obtain preliminary evidence for efficacy of the anti-BAFF therapeutic belimumab after rituximab in SLE. DESIGN: Phase 2, randomized, double-blind (patients, assessors, researchers, care providers), placebo-controlled, parallel-group, superiority trial. (ISRCTN: 47873003). SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty-two patients who had SLE that was refractory to conventional treatment and whose physicians had recommended rituximab therapy were recruited between 2 February 2017 and 28 March 2019. INTERVENTION: Participants were treated with rituximab and 4 to 8 weeks later were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive intravenous belimumab or placebo for 52 weeks. MEASUREMENTS: The prespecified primary end point was serum IgG anti-double-stranded DNA (anti-dsDNA) antibody levels at 52 weeks. Secondary outcomes included incidence of disease flares and adverse events. RESULTS: At 52 weeks, IgG anti-dsDNA antibody levels were lower in patients treated with belimumab compared with placebo (geometric mean, 47 [95% CI, 25 to 88] vs. 103 [CI, 49 to 213] IU/mL; 70% greater reduction from baseline [CI, 46% to 84%]; P < 0.001). Belimumab reduced risk for severe flare (BILAG-2004 grade A) compared with placebo (hazard ratio, 0.27 [CI, 0.07 to 0.98]; log-rank P = 0.033), with 10 severe flares in the placebo group and 3 in the belimumab group. Belimumab did not increase incidence of serious adverse events. Belimumab significantly suppressed B-cell repopulation compared with placebo (geometric mean, 0.012 [CI, 0.006 to 0.014] vs. 0.037 [CI, 0.021 to 0.081] × 109/L) at 52 weeks in a subset of patients (n = 25) with available data. LIMITATIONS: Small sample size; biomarker primary end point. CONCLUSION: Belimumab after rituximab significantly reduced serum IgG anti-dsDNA antibody levels and reduced risk for severe flare in patients with SLE that was refractory to conventional therapy. The results suggest that this combination could be developed as a therapeutic strategy. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Versus Arthritis.

Impact of retrospective data verification to prepare the ICON6 trial for use in a marketing authorization application.

BACKGROUND: The ICON6 trial (ISRCTN68510403) is a phase III academic-led, international, randomized, three-arm, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of the addition of cediranib to chemotherapy in recurrent ovarian cancer. It investigated the use of placebo during chemotherapy and maintenance (arm A), cediranib alongside chemotherapy followed by placebo maintenance (arm B) and cediranib throughout both periods (arm C). Results of the primary comparison showed a meaningful gain in progression-free survival (time to progression or death from any cause) when comparing arm A (placebo) with arm C (cediranib). As a consequence of the positive results, AstraZeneca was engaged with the Medical Research Council trials unit to discuss regulatory submission using ICON6 as the single pivotal trial. METHODS: A relatively limited level of on-site monitoring, single data entry and investigator's local evaluation of progression were used on trial. In order to submit a license application, it was decided that (a) extensive retrospective source data verification of medical records against case report forms should be performed, (b) further quality control checks for accuracy of data entry should be performed and (c) blinded independent central review of images used to define progression should be undertaken. To assess the value of these extra activities, we summarize the impact on both efficacy and safety outcomes. RESULTS: Data point changes were minimal; those key to the primary results had a 0.47% error rate (36/7686), and supporting data points had a 0.18% error rate (109/59,261). The impact of the source data verification and quality control processes were analyzed jointly. The conclusion drawn for the primary outcome measure of progression-free survival between arm A and arm C was unchanged. The log-rank test p-value changed only at the sixth decimal place, the hazard ratio does not change from 0.57 with the exception of a marginal change in its upper bound (0.74-0.73) and the median progression-free survival benefit from arm C remained at 2.4 months. Separately, the blinded independent central review of progression scans was performed as a sensitivity analysis. Estimates and p values varied slightly but overall demonstrated a difference in arms, which is consistent with the initial result. Some increases in toxicity were observed, though these were generally minor, with the exception of hypertension. However, none of these increases were systematically biased toward one arm. CONCLUSION: The conduct of this pragmatic, academic-sponsored trial was sufficient given the robustness of the results, shown by the results remaining largely unchanged following retrospective verification despite not being designed for use in a marketing authorization. The burden of such comprehensive retrospective effort required to ensure the results of ICON6 were acceptable to regulators is difficult to justify.

A study protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial investigating videoendoscopic radical inguinal lymphadenectomy versus open radical inguinal lymphadenectomy in patients with penile cancer (VELRAD).

BACKGROUND: Penile cancer is a rare male genital malignancy. Surgical excision of the primary tumour is followed by radical inguinal lymphadenectomy if there is metastatic disease detected by biopsy, fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) or following sentinel lymph node biopsy in patients with impalpable disease. However, radical inguinal lymphadenectomy is associated with a high morbidity rate, and there is increasing usage of a videoendoscopic approach as an alternative. METHODS: A pragmatic, UK-wide multicentre feasibility randomised controlled trial (RCT), comparing videoendoscopic radical inguinal lymphadenectomy versus open radical inguinal lymphadenectomy. Patients will be identified and recruited from supraregional multi-disciplinary team meetings (sMDT) and must be aged 18 or over requiring inguinal lymphadenectomy, with no contraindications to surgical intervention for their cancer. Participants will be followed up for 6 months following randomisation. The primary outcome is the ability to recruit patients for randomisation across all selected sites and the rate of loss to follow-up. Other outcomes include acceptability of the trial and intervention to patients and healthcare professionals assessed by qualitative research and obtaining resource utilisation information for health economic analysis. DISCUSSION: There are currently no other published RCTs comparing videoendoscopic versus open radical inguinal lymphadenectomy. Ongoing study is required to determine whether randomising patients to either procedure is feasible and acceptable to patients. The results of this study may determine the design of a subsequent trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov PRS registry, registration number NCT05592639. Date of registration: 13th October 2022, retrospectively registered.

A three protein signature fails to externally validate as a biomarker to predict surgical outcome in high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer.

INTRODUCTION: For patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer, complete surgical cytoreduction remains the strongest predictor of outcome. However, identifying patients who are likely to benefit from such surgery remains elusive and to date few surgical outcome prediction tools have been validated. Here we attempted to externally validate a promising three protein signature, which had previously shown strong association with suboptimal surgical debulking (AUC 0.89, accuracy 92.8%), (Riester, M., et al., (2014)). METHODS: 238 high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer samples were collected from patients who participated in a large multicentre trial (ICON5). Samples were collected at the time of initial surgery and before randomisation. Surgical outcome data were collated from prospectively collected study records. Immunohistochemical scores were generated by two independent observers for the three proteins in the original signature (POSTN, CXCL14 and pSmad2/3). Predictive values were generated for individual and combination protein signatures. RESULTS: When assessed individually, none of the proteins showed any evidence of predictive affinity for suboptimal surgical outcome in our cohort (AUC POSTN 0.55, pSmad 2/3 0.53, CXCL 14 0.62). The combined signature again showed poor predictive ability with an AUC 0.58. CONCLUSIONS: Despite showing original promise, when this protein signature is applied to a large external cohort, it is unable to accurately predict surgical outcomes. This could be attributed to overfitting of the original model, or differences in surgical practice between cohorts.

Identification of biomarkers to stratify response to B-cell-targeted therapies in systemic lupus erythematosus: an exploratory analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

Background: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a complex autoimmune disease associated with widespread immune dysregulation and diverse clinical features. Immune abnormalities might be differentially associated with specific organ involvement or response to targeted therapies. We aimed to identify biomarkers of response to belimumab after rituximab to facilitate a personalised approach to therapy. Methods: In this exploratory analysis of a randomised controlled trial (BEAT-LUPUS), we investigated immune profiles of patients with SLE recruited to the 52-week clinical trial, which tested the combination of rituximab plus belimumab versus rituximab plus placebo. We used machine learning and conventional statistics to investigate relevant laboratory and clinical biomarkers associated with major clinical response. BEAT LUPUS is registered at ISRCTN, 47873003, and is now complete. Findings: Between Feb 2, 2017, and March 28, 2019, 52 patients were recruited to BEAT-LUPUS, of whom 44 provided clinical data at week 52 and were included in this analysis. 21 (48%) of 44 participants were in the belimumab group (mean age 39·5 years [SD 12·1]; 17 [81%] were female, four [19%] were male, 13 [62%] were White) and 23 (52%) were in the placebo group (mean age 42·1 years [SD 10·5]; 21 [91%] were female, two [9%] were male, 16 [70%] were White). Ten (48%) of 21 participants who received belimumab after rituximab and eight (35%) of 23 who received placebo after rituximab had a major clinical response at 52 weeks (between-group difference of 13% [95% CI -15 to 38]). We found a predictive association between baseline serum IgA2 anti-double stranded DNA (dsDNA) antibody concentrations and clinical response to belimumab after rituximab, with a between-group difference in major clinical response of 48% (95% CI 10 to 70) in patients with elevated baseline serum IgA2 anti-dsDNA antibody concentrations. Moreover, among those who had a major clinical response, serum IgA2 anti-dsDNA antibody concentrations significantly decreased from baseline only in the belimumab group. Increased circulating IgA2 (but not total) plasmablast numbers, and T follicular helper cell numbers predicted clinical response and were both reduced only in patients who responded to belimumab after rituximab. Serum IgA2 anti-dsDNA antibody concentrations were also associated with active renal disease, whereas serum IgA1 anti-dsDNA antibody and IFN-α concentrations were associated with mucocutaneous disease activity but did not predict response to B-cell targeted therapy. Patients with a high baseline serum interleukin-6 concentration were less likely to have a major clinical response, irrespective of therapy. Interpretation: This exploratory study revealed the presence of distinct molecular networks associated with renal and mucocutaneous involvement, and response to B-cell-targeted therapies, which, if confirmed, could guide precision targeting of advanced therapies for this heterogenous disease. Funding: Versus Arthritis, UCLH Biomedical Research Centre, LUPUS UK, and GSK.

Surgical aortic valve replacement in the era of transcatheter aortic valve implantation: a review of the UK national database.

OBJECTIVES: To date the reported outcomes of surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) are mainly in the settings of trials comparing it with evolving transcatheter aortic valve implantation. We set out to examine characteristics and outcomes in people who underwent SAVR reflecting a national cohort and therefore 'real-world' practice. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of consecutive people who underwent SAVR with or without coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery between April 2013 and March 2018 in the UK. This included elective, urgent and emergency operations. Participants' demographics, preoperative risk factors, operative data, in-hospital mortality, postoperative complications and effect of the addition of CABG to SAVR were analysed. SETTING: 27 (90%) tertiary cardiac surgical centres in the UK submitted their data for analysis. PARTICIPANTS: 31 277 people with AVR were identified. 19 670 (62.9%) had only SAVR and 11 607 (37.1%) had AVR+CABG. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality for isolated SAVR was 1.9% (95% CI 1.6% to 2.1%) and was 2.4% for AVR+CABG. Mortality by age category for SAVR only were: <60 years=2.0%, 60-75 years=1.5%, >75 years=2.2%. For SAVR+CABG these were; 2.2%, 1.8% and 3.1%. For different categories of EuroSCORE, mortality for SAVR in low risk people was 1.3%, in intermediate risk 1% and for high risk 3.9%. 74.3% of the operations were elective, 24% urgent and 1.7% emergency/salvage. The incidences of resternotomy for bleeding and stroke were 3.9% and 1.1%, respectively. Multivariable analyses provided no evidence that concomitant CABG influenced outcome. However, urgency of the operation, poor ventricular function, higher EuroSCORE and longer cross clamp and cardiopulmonary bypass times adversely affected outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical SAVR±CABG has low mortality risk and a low level of complications in the UK in people of all ages and risk factors. These results should inform consideration of treatment options in people with aortic valve disease.