Is reducing new particle formation a plausible solution to mitigate particulate air pollution in Beijing and other Chinese megacities?

Atmospheric gas-to-particle conversion is a crucial or even dominant contributor to haze formation in Chinese megacities in terms of aerosol number, surface area and mass. Based on our comprehensive observations in Beijing during 15 January 2018-31 March 2019, we are able to show that 80-90% of the aerosol mass (PM2.5) was formed via atmospheric reactions during the haze days and over 65% of the number concentration of haze particles resulted from new particle formation (NPF). Furthermore, the haze formation was faster when the subsequent growth of newly formed particles was enhanced. Our findings suggest that in practice almost all present-day haze episodes originate from NPF, mainly since the direct emission of primary particles in Beijing has considerably decreased during recent years. We also show that reducing the subsequent growth rate of freshly formed particles by a factor of 3-5 would delay the buildup of haze episodes by 1-3 days. Actually, this delay would decrease the length of each haze episode, so that the number of annual haze days could be approximately halved. Such improvement in air quality can be achieved with targeted reduction of gas-phase precursors for NPF, mainly dimethyl amine and ammonia, and further reductions of SO2 emissions. Furthermore, reduction of anthropogenic organic and inorganic precursor emissions would slow down the growth rate of newly-formed particles and consequently reduce the haze formation.

Potential pre-industrial-like new particle formation induced by pure biogenic organic vapors in Finnish peatland.

Pure biogenic new particle formation (NPF) induced by highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) could be an important mechanism for pre-industrial aerosol formation. However, it has not been unambiguously confirmed in the ambient due to the scarcity of truly pristine continental locations in the present-day atmosphere or the lack of chemical characterization of NPF precursors. Here, we report ambient observations of pure biogenic HOM-driven NPF over a peatland in southern Finland. Meteorological decoupling processes formed an "air pocket" (i.e., a very shallow surface layer) at night and favored NPF initiated entirely by biogenic HOM from this peatland, whose atmospheric environment closely resembles that of the pre-industrial era. Our study sheds light on pre-industrial aerosol formation, which represents the baseline for estimating the impact of present and future aerosol on climate, as well as on future NPF, the features of which may revert toward pre-industrial-like conditions due to air pollution mitigation.

The impact of climatic factors on tick-related hospital visits and borreliosis incidence rates in European Russia.

Tick-borne diseases are among the challenges associated with warming climate. Many studies predict, and already note, expansion of ticks' habitats to the north, bringing previously non-endemic diseases, such as borreliosis and encephalitis, to the new areas. In addition, higher temperatures accelerate phases of ticks' development in areas where ticks have established populations. Earlier works have shown that meteorological parameters, such as temperature and humidity influence ticks' survival and define their areas of habitat. Here, we study the link between climatic parameters and tick-related hospital visits as well as borreliosis incidence rates focusing on European Russia. We have used yearly incidence rates of borreliosis spanning a period of 20 years (1997-2016) and weekly tick-related hospital visits spanning two years (2018-2019). We identify regions in Russia characterized by similar dynamics of incidence rates and dominating tick species. For each cluster, we find a set of climatic parameters that are significantly correlated with the incidence rates, though a linear regression approach using exclusively climatic parameters to incidence prediction was less than 50% effective. On a weekly timescale, we find correlations of different climatic parameters with hospital visits. Finally, we trained two long short-term memory neural network models to project the tick-related hospital visits until the end of the century, under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, and present our findings in the evolution of the tick season length for different regions in Russia. Our results show that the regions with an expected increase in both tick season length and borreliosis incidence rates are located in the southern forested areas of European Russia. Oppositely, our projections suggest no prolongation of the tick season length in the northern areas with already established tick population.

Climatic Factors Influencing the Anthrax Outbreak of 2016 in Siberia, Russia.

In 2016, an outbreak of anthrax killing thousands of reindeer and affecting dozens of humans occurred on the Yamal peninsula, Northwest Siberia, after 70 years of epidemiological situation without outbreaks. The trigger of the outbreak has been ascribed to the activation of spores due to permafrost thaw that was accelerated during the summer heat wave. The focus of our study is on the dynamics of local environmental factors in connection with the observed anthrax revival. We show that permafrost was thawing rapidly for already 6 years before the outbreak. During 2011-2016, relatively warm years were followed by cold years with a thick snow cover, preventing freezing of the soil. Furthermore, the spread of anthrax was likely intensified by an extremely dry summer of 2016. Concurrent with the long-term decreasing trend in the regional annual precipitation, the rainfall in July 2016 was less than 10% of its 30-year mean value. We conclude that epidemiological situation of anthrax in the previously contaminated Arctic regions requires monitoring of climatic factors such as warming and precipitation extremes.