Cure indicators and prevalence by stage at diagnosis for breast and colorectal cancer patients: A population-based study in Italy.

People alive many years after breast (BC) or colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnoses are increasing. This paper aimed to estimate the indicators of cancer cure and complete prevalence for Italian patients with BC and CRC by stage and age. A total of 31 Italian Cancer Registries (47% of the population) data until 2017 were included. Mixture cure models allowed estimation of net survival (NS); cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC, 5-year conditional NS >95%); cure prevalence (who will not die of cancer); and already cured (prevalent patients living longer than TTC). 2.6% of all Italian women (806,410) were alive in 2018 after BC and 88% will not die of BC. For those diagnosed in 2010, CF was 73%, 99% when diagnosed at stage I, 81% at stage II, and 36% at stages III-IV. For all stages combined, TTC was >10 years under 45 and over 65 years and for women with advanced stages, but ≤1 year for all BC patients at stage I. The proportion of already cured prevalent BC women was 75% (94% at stage I). Prevalent CRC cases were 422,407 (0.7% of the Italian population), 90% will not die of CRC. For CRC patients, CF was 56%, 92% at stage I, 71% at stage II, and 35% at stages III-IV. TTC was ≤10 years for all age groups and stages. Already cured were 59% of all prevalent CRC patients (93% at stage I). Cancer cure indicators by stage may contribute to appropriate follow-up in the years after diagnosis, thus avoiding patients' discrimination.

Indicators of cure for women living after uterine and ovarian cancers: a population-based study.

This study aims to estimate long-term survival, cancer prevalence, and several cure indicators for Italian women with gynaecological cancers. Thirty-one cancer registries, representing 47% of the Italian female population, were included. Mixture cure models were used to estimate Net Survival (NS), Cure Fraction, Time To Cure (5-year conditional NS>95%), Cure Prevalence (women who will not die of cancer), and Already Cured (living longer than Time to Cure). In 2018, 0.4% (121,704) of Italian women were alive after corpus uteri cancer, 0.2% (52,551) after cervical, and 0.2% (52,153) after ovarian cancer. More than 90% of patients with uterine cancers and 83% with ovarian cancer will not die from their neoplasm (Cure Prevalence). Women with gynaecological cancers have a residual excess risk of death <5% after 5 years since diagnosis. The Cure Fraction was 69% for corpus uteri, 32% for ovarian, and 58% for cervical cancer patients. Time To Cure was ≤10 years for women with gynaecological cancers aged <55 years. 74% of patients with cervical cancer, 63% with corpus uteri cancer, and 55% with ovarian cancer were Already Cured. These results will contribute to improving follow-up programs for women with gynaecological cancers and supporting efforts against discrimination of already cured ones.

Cryptocurrency Turmoil: Unraveling the Collapse of a Unified Stablecoin (USTC) through Twitter as a Passive Sensor.

This study sought to explore whether Twitter, as a passive sensor, could have foreseen the collapse of the Unified Stablecoin (USTC). In May 2022, in just a few days, the cryptocurrency went to near-zero valuation. Analyzing 244,312 tweets from 89,449 distinct accounts between April and June 2022, this study delved into the correlation between personal sentiments in tweets and the USTC market value, revealing a moderate correlation with polarity. While sentiment analysis has often been used to predict market prices, the results suggest the challenge of foreseeing sudden catastrophic events like the USTC collapse solely through sentiment analysis. The analysis uncovered unexpected global interest and noted positive sentiments during the collapse. Additionally, it identified events such as the launch of the new Terra blockchain (referred to as "Terra 2.0") that triggered positive surges. Leveraging machine learning clustering techniques, this study also identified distinct user behaviors, providing valuable insights into influential figures in the cryptocurrency space. This comprehensive analysis marks an initial step toward understanding sudden and catastrophic phenomena in the cryptocurrency market.

Cholangiocarcinoma and Occupational Exposure to Asbestos: Insights From the Italian Pooled Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies supported the association between occupational exposure to asbestos and risk of cholangiocarcinoma (CC). Aim of the present study is to investigate this association using an update of mortality data from the Italian pooled asbestos cohort study and to test record linkage to Cancer Registries to distinguish between hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic/extrahepatic forms of CC. METHODS: The update of a large cohort study pooling 52 Italian industrial cohorts of workers formerly exposed to asbestos was carried out. Causes of death were coded according to ICD. Linkage was carried out for those subjects who died for liver or bile duct cancer with data on histological subtype provided by Cancer Registries. RESULTS: 47 cohorts took part in the study (57,227 subjects). We identified 639 causes of death for liver and bile duct cancer in the 44 cohorts covered by Cancer Registry. Of these 639, 240 cases were linked to Cancer Registry, namely 14 CC, 83 HCC, 117 cases with unspecified histology, 25 other carcinomas, and one case of cirrhosis (likely precancerous condition). Of the 14 CC, 12 occurred in 2010-2019, two in 2000-2009, and none before 2000. CONCLUSION: Further studies are needed to explore the association between occupational exposure to asbestos and CC. Record linkage was hampered due to incomplete coverage of the study areas and periods by Cancer Registries. The identification of CC among unspecific histology cases is fundamental to establish more effective and targeted liver cancer screening strategies.

External validation of scores predicting postoperative fistula after pancreatogastrostomy for pancreatoduodenectomy reconstruction. A single center experience.

BACKGROUND: Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) is the most frequent complication of pancreatic surgery and can be fatal. Selection and stratification of patients according to the risk of POPF are important for the perioperative management. Predictive metrics have been developed and validated in pancreatojejunostomy. Aim of this study is to assess whether the most used prognostic scores can be predictive of fistula following Wirsung-pancreaticogastrostomy (WPG) for pancreatoduodenectomy (PD)reconstruction. METHOD: This single-center prospective observational study included 212 PDs between January 2008 and October 2022 with a standardized WPG. All component variables of the six scores were separately validated in our cohort. The overall predictive ability of the six fistula scores was measured and compared with the receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) method and expressed by the area under the ROC-curve (AUC). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed considering all risk factors in the scores in order to identify variables independently correlated with POPF in the WPG. RESULTS: CR-POPF occurred in 36 of 212 (17 %) patients. All scores showed poor prognostic stratification for the development of CR-POPF. The occurrence of CR-POPF was associated with nine factors: male gender (p = 0.003); BMI (kg/m2) (p = 0.005); ASA (%) (p = 0.003); Soft pancreatic texture (%) (p = 0.003), Pathology (p = 0.008); MPD (p = 0.011); EBL (mL) (p = 0.021); Preop. Bilirubin (mg/dl) (p = 0.038); Preop. Glucose (mg/dl) (p = 0.0369). Male gender (OR: 5.54, CI 1.41-21.3) and soft consistency of the remnant pancreas (OR: 3.83, CI 1.14-12.8) were the only independent prognostic factors on multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our study including exclusively pancreatogastrostomies failed to validate the most used predictive scores for POPF. We found that only male gender and soft pancreatic texture are associated with POPF. Specific predictive scores following pancreatogasgtrostomy are needed.

Patient presentation, skin biopsy utilization and cutaneous malignant melanoma incidence and mortality in northern Italy: Trends and correlations.

BACKGROUND: The global increase in incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) occurring in the past decades has been partly attributed to increased diagnostic scrutiny of early lesions, with a potential phenomenon of overdiagnosis. The reported positive linear relation between skin biopsy rate and incidence of early CMM is compatible with this hypothesis. OBJECTIVES: We explored the ecological association between the trends in annual dermatologic office visit rates, skin biopsy rates, incidence rates of in situ and invasive CMM by tumour thickness category, and CMM mortality rates in the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy). METHODS: Four cancer registries covering a population of 2,696,000 provided CMM incidence data for the years 2003-2017. Dermatologic office visit rates and skin biopsy rates were calculated using the Regional outpatient care database. All rates were age-standardized. Trends were described with the estimated average annual per cent change (EAAPC). Correlations were tested with the Spearman correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Incidence increased significantly. The increase was steeper for in situ CMM (EAAPC: men, 10.2; women, 6.9) followed by CMM <0.8 mm thick (9.1; 5.2), but the rates grew significantly for most subgroups of CMMs ≥0.8 mm thick. Mortality decreased significantly among women (-2.3) and non-significantly among men. For dermatologic office visit rate and skin biopsy rate the EAAPC were, respectively, 1.7 and 1.8 for men and 1.2 and 0.9 for women. Annual dermatologic office visit rate correlated with skin biopsy rate in both sexes. However, the proportion of skin biopsies out of dermatologic office visits was constant across the years (range: men, 0.182-0.216; women, 0.157-0.191). CONCLUSIONS: In Italy, the increasing CMM incidence trend is, at least in part, genuine. Overdiagnosis-if any-is due to an increased patient presentation at dermatologic offices and not to a lower dermatologic threshold to perform biopsy.

Incidence of Vulvar Lichen Sclerosus and of Cancer Among Vulvar Lichen Sclerosus Patients: Does Socioeconomic Status Have a Role?

OBJECTIVE: Socioeconomic status (SES) impacts on the incidence of many inflammatory diseases and cancers, but there is no evidence on its implication in vulvar lichen sclerosus (VLS). The authors aimed to assess possible associations between SES and both occurrence of VLS and cancer occurrence among VLS patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort of women resident in the province of Ferrara, Italy, affected with VLS diagnosed between 2001 and 2020, was investigated for assessing any association of SES with VLS and cancer incidence. The SES was expressed through an ecological-based deprivation index identifying 5 subgroups. RESULT: Four-hundred women were diagnosed with VLS during the study period, with double the number of cases in the second decade (2011-2020) compared with the first (2001-2010). More VLS patients belonged to the high rather than the low SES groups (p = .032). From VLS diagnosis to 2018 (1,958.4 total person*years at risk), 22 patients received their first diagnosis of cancer, mainly the skin, breast, and vulva. No significant differences in cancer incidence were found between high/medium-high and low/medium-low SES subjects. CONCLUSIONS: The fact that more VLS patients belonged to the highest socioeconomic classes may be due to a more frequent diagnosis in those with greater health seeking behavior and resources. An involvement of SES-related factors in VLS pathophysiological background can also be taken into consideration. Both the lack of marked social and economic differences in the study area and the availability of free visits and screening may account for the lack of association between SES and cancer development.

How a faecal immunochemical test screening programme changes annual colorectal cancer incidence rates: an Italian intention-to-screen study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a biennial faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening programme in reducing annual colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in its dynamic target population. METHODS: The target population included over 1,000,000 persons aged 50-69 living in a region of northern Italy. The average annual response rate to invitation was 51.4%. Each observed annual age-standardised (Europe) rate per 100,000 persons between 2005, the year of introduction of the programme, and 2016 was compared with each expected annual rate as estimated with age-period-cohort (men) and age-period (women) models. RESULTS: For both sexes, the rates observed in 1997-2004 and those expected in 2005-2016 were stable. Observed rates increased in 2005, peaked in 2006 (the first full year of screening), dropped significantly below the expected level in 2009, and continued to decrease until 2013 (the eighth full year), after which no further significant changes occurred. In the pooled years 2013-2016, the observed incidence rate per 100,000 persons was 102.2 [95% CI: 97.4, 107.1] for men, 75.6 [95% CI: 71.6, 79.7] for women and 88.4 [95% CI: 85.3, 91.5] for both sexes combined, with an observed:expected incidence rate ratio of 0.68 [95% CI: 0.65, 0.71], 0.79 [95% CI: 0.76, 0.82] and 0.72 [95% CI: 0.66, 0.81], respectively. DISCUSSION: The study provided multiple consistent proofs of a causal relationship between the introduction of screening and a stable 28% decrease in annual CRC incidence after eight years.

Liquid Biopsy at Home: Delivering Precision Medicine for Patients with Cancer During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

CoronaVirus disease-2019 has changed the delivery of health care worldwide and the pandemic has challenged oncologists to reorganize cancer care. Recently, progress has been made in the field of precision medicine to provide to patients with cancer the best therapeutic choice for their individual needs. In this context, the Foundation Medicine (FMI)-Liquid@Home project has emerged as a key weapon to deal with the new pandemic situation. FoundationOne Liquid Assay (F1L) is a next-generation sequences-based liquid biopsy service, able to detect 324 molecular alterations and genomic signatures, from May 2020 available at patients' home (FMI-Liquid@Home). We analyzed time and costs saving for patients with cancer, their caregivers and National Healthcare System (NHS) with FMI-Liquid@Home versus F1L performed at our Department. Different variables have been evaluated. Between May 2020 and August 2021, 218 FMI-Liquid@Home were performed for patients with cancer in Italy. Among these, our Department performed 153 FMI-Liquid@Home with the success rate of 98% (vs. 95% for F1L in the hospital). Time saving for patients and their caregivers was 494.86 and 427.36 hours, respectively, and costs saving was 13 548.70€. Moreover, for working people these savings were 1084.71 hours and 31 239.65€, respectively. In addition, the total gain for the hospital was 163.5 hours and 6785€, whereas for NHS was 1084.71 hours and 51 573.60€, respectively. FMI-Liquid@Home service appears to be useful and convenient allowing time and costs saving for patients, caregivers, and NHS. Born during the COVID-19 pandemic, it could be integrated in oncological daily routine in the future. Therefore, additional studies are needed to better understand the overall gain and how to integrate this service in different countries.

Effects of Attendance to an Organized Fecal Immunochemical Test Screening Program on the Risk of Colorectal Cancer: An Observational Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: This cohort study compared colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality between people who participated in an Italian regional biennial fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening program and people who did not. METHODS: The program started in 2005. The target population included over 1,000,000 people aged 50 to 69 years. The FIT was a one-sample OC-Sensor (Eiken Chemical Co, Tokyo, Japan) (cutoff, ≥20 µg hemoglobin/g feces). The average annual response rate to invitation was 51.4%. The records of people invited up to June 2016 were extracted from the screening data warehouse. Attenders were subjects who responded to the first 2 invitations or to the single invitation sent them before they became ineligible. Non-attenders were subjects who did not respond to any of these invitations. The records were linked with the regional CRC registry. People registered up to December 2016 were identified. Self-selection-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and incidence-based CRC mortality rate ratios (MRRs) for attenders to non-attenders, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were calculated. RESULTS: The cohort generated 2,622,131 man-years and 2,887,845 woman-years at risk with 4490 and 3309 CRC cases, respectively. The cohort of attenders was associated with an IRR of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.61-0.69) for men, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.80) for women and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72) for both sexes combined. The self-selection-adjusted IRR was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) for men and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.88) for women. The IRR for stage I, II, III, and IV CRC was 1.35 (95% CI, 1.20-1.50), 0.61 (95% CI, 0.53-0.69), 0.60 (95% CI, 0.53-0.68) and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.24-0.32) for men and 1.64 (95% CI, 1.43-1.89), 0.60 (95% CI, 0.52-0.69), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.63-0.85) and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.30-0.42) for women. The overall incidence-based CRC MRR was 0.32 (95% CI, 0.28-0.37) for men, 0.40 (95% CI, 0.34-0.47) for women and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.31-0.39) for both sexes combined. The adjusted MRR was 0.35 (95% CI, 0.29-0.41) for men and 0.46 (95% CI, 0.37-0.58) for women. CONCLUSIONS: Attendance to a FIT screening program is associated with a CRC incidence reduction of 33% among men and 21% among women, and a CRC mortality reduction of 65% and 54%, respectively.

Laparoscopic Left Hepatectomy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence Following Liver Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Despite the successful oncological results of liver transplantation, patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can develop tumor recurrence. When technically feasible, liver resection represents the preferred treatment for recurrent HCC, even in the setting of transplanted patients. Recent progresses in minimally invasive liver resections have pushed the surgical community to attempt more challenging cases. We report a full laparoscopic left hepatectomy for HCC recurrence on transplanted liver. METHODS: A routine follow-up computed tomography (CT) scan of a 53-year-old male who previously underwent an orthotopic liver transplantation for alcoholic-related liver disease showed a 3 cm HCC in segment 4 in close relationship with the peripheral portion of the left portal pedicle. A full laparoscopic left hepatectomy was performed using an extrahepatic intraglissonean approach. RESULTS: Operative time was 332 min and blood loss was 100 mL. The patient had an uneventful postoperative recovery and was discharged home after 3 days. CONCLUSIONS: Laparoscopic liver resection on transplanted patients is feasible. Challenging clinical scenarios should only be attempted in referral centers and after an appropriate learning curve.1-8.

The relative contribution of the decreasing trend in tumour thickness to the 2010s increase in net survival from cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy: a population-based investigation.

BACKGROUND: The long-term increase in survival from cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is generally attributed to the decreasing trend in tumour thickness, the single most important prognostic factor. OBJECTIVES: To determine the relative contribution of decreased tumour thickness to the favourable trend in survival from CMM in Italy. METHODS: Eleven local cancer registries covering a population of 8 056 608 (13.4% of the Italian population in 2010) provided records for people with primary CMM registered between 2003 and 2017. Age-standardized 5-year net survival was calculated. Multivariate analysis of 5-year net survival was undertaken by calculating the relative excess risk (RER) of death. The relative contribution of the decrease in tumour thickness to the RER of death was evaluated using a forward stepwise flexible parametric survival model including the available prognostic factors. RESULTS: Over the study period, tumour thickness was inversely associated with 5-year net survival and multivariate RER in both sexes. The median thickness was 0.90 mm in 2003-2007, 0.85 mm in 2008-2012 and 0.75 mm in 2013-2017 among male patients, and 0.78 mm, 0.77 mm and 0.68 mm among female patients, respectively. The 5-year net survival was 86.8%, 89.2% and 93.2% in male patients, and 91.4%, 92.0% and 93.4% in female patients, respectively. In 2013-2017, male patients exhibited the same survival as female patients despite having thicker lesions. For them, the increasing survival trend was more pronounced with increasing thickness, and the inclusion of thickness in the forward stepwise model made the RER in 2013-2017 vs. 2003-2007 increase from 0.64 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.80] to 0.70 (95% CI 0.57-0.86). This indicates that the thickness trend accounted for less than 20% of the survival increase. For female patients, the results were not significant but, with multiple imputation of missing thickness values, the RER rose from 0.74 (95% CI 0.58-0.93) to 0.82 (95% CI 0.66-1.02) in 2013-2017. CONCLUSIONS: For male patients in particular, decrease in tumour thickness accounted for a small part of the improvement in survival observed in 2013-2017. The introduction of targeted therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors in 2013 is most likely to account for the remaining improvement.

Five-year annual incidence and clinico-molecular features of breast cancer after the last negative screening mammography at age 68-69.

OBJECTIVE: The European Commission Initiative on Breast Cancer recommendation for triennial screening of women aged 70-74 is based on very weak evidence. A cohort of Italian women who had their last biennial screening mammography at age 68-69 was followed up for 5 years, assumed to represent the interval to another hypothetical screening mammography, in order to determine the annual proportional incidence of interval breast cancer. METHODS: The cohort included 118,370 women. They had their last mammography between 1997 and 2008. Incident breast cancers were identified by record-linking the cohort with the regional breast cancer registry. The expected incidence in the age range 65-74 was estimated with an age-period-cohort model. The number of interval cancers was divided by the expected number to obtain their proportional incidence. RESULTS: Overall, there were 298,658 woman-years at risk with 371 interval cancers versus 988.8 expected. In the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth interval year, the proportional incidence was 0.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.06-0.13), 0.32 (0.25-0.39), 0.60 (0.49-0.73), 0.75 (0.60-0.92), and 0.81 (0.60-1.07), respectively. Between the second and the fifth year, tumour stage and molecular subtype did not change significantly. CONCLUSION: Though not supported by these findings, the proposal of triennial screening for women aged 70-74 merits further research, because the 95% confidence interval of the third-year proportional incidence of interval cancer included 0.50-the maximum limit considered acceptable for women aged 50-69. KEY POINTS: • The third-year incidence of breast cancer relative to the expected one was 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.49-0.73). • Between the second and the fifth year, tumour stage and molecular subtype did not change significantly (p >0.10). • The proposal of a 3-year screening interval at age 70-74 merits further evaluation.

Decentralized Personal Data Marketplaces: How Participation in a DAO Can Support the Production of Citizen-Generated Data.

Big Tech companies operating in a data-driven economy offer services that rely on their users' personal data and usually store this personal information in "data silos" that prevent transparency about their use and opportunities for data sharing for public interest. In this paper, we present a solution that promotes the development of decentralized personal data marketplaces, exploiting the use of Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLTs), Decentralized File Storages (DFS) and smart contracts for storing personal data and managing access control in a decentralized way. Moreover, we focus on the issue of a lack of efficient decentralized mechanisms in DLTs and DFSs for querying a certain type of data. For this reason, we propose the use of a hypercube-structured Distributed Hash Table (DHT) on top of DLTs, organized for efficient processing of multiple keyword-based queries on the ledger data. We test our approach with the implementation of a use case regarding the creation of citizen-generated data based on direct participation and the involvement of a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO). The performance evaluation demonstrates the viability of our approach for decentralized data searches, distributed authorization mechanisms and smart contract exploitation.

Machine Learning in Hypertension Detection: A Study on World Hypertension Day Data.

Many modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors have been associated with hypertension. However, current screening programs are still failing in identifying individuals at higher risk of hypertension. Given the major impact of high blood pressure on cardiovascular events and mortality, there is an urgent need to find new strategies to improve hypertension detection. We aimed to explore whether a machine learning (ML) algorithm can help identifying individuals predictors of hypertension. We analysed the data set generated by the questionnaires administered during the World Hypertension Day from 2015 to 2019. A total of 20206 individuals have been included for analysis. We tested five ML algorithms, exploiting different balancing techniques. Moreover, we computed the performance of the medical protocol currently adopted in the screening programs. Results show that a gain of sensitivity reflects in a loss of specificity, bringing to a scenario where there is not an algorithm and a configuration which properly outperforms against the others. However, Random Forest provides interesting performances (0.818 sensitivity - 0.629 specificity) compared with medical protocols (0.906 sensitivity - 0.230 specificity). Detection of hypertension at a population level still remains challenging and a machine learning approach could help in making screening programs more precise and cost effective, when based on accurate data collection. More studies are needed to identify new features to be acquired and to further improve the performances of ML models.

[Update of survival of cancer patients in Italy: geographical comparisons and focus on patients with cancers targeted by screening programmes, childhood cancers, and smoking-associated cancers]. / Aggiornamento della sopravvivenza dei pazienti con tumore in Italia: confronti geografici e focus su pazienti con tumori oggetto di screening, pediatrici e associati al fumo.

OBJECTIVES: to update the Italian estimates of survival for patients with a paediatric cancer, tobacco smoke-associated cancers, and cancers targeted by screening; to assess geographical differences. DESIGN: population-based descriptive study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: incident cancer cases diagnosed in 2010-2014, with follow-up to 2018, from 17 Italian cancer registries (covering 31% of the national population; 43% of the population residing in the North-Centre of the country and 8% of the population living in the South and Islands). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: age-standardized 5-year net survival (NS) by cancer site or type, sex, age, and geographical area. RESULTS: NS of patients aged ≥15 years with breast, prostate, colorectal, and lung cancers was higher in the North-Centre than in the South and Islands. The overall survival of people diagnosed with cancer in childhood (0-14 years) was 84.3%, with similar values among the geographical macro-areas and between males and females. Women with breast cancer within the current target age of the screening programmes and those in the younger age groups (45-49 years) show similar survival values; the same is true for women with colorectal cancer. In both cases, survival decreased in the age groups after the age of cessation of screening programmes. Survival of patients with tobacco smoke-associated cancers varies according to cancer site (from 11.1% for patients with pancreatic cancer to 79.7% for those with bladder cancer). For most cancer sites, women have higher survival than men. CONCLUSIONS: for adults, a geographical survival gap persists. The results may contribute to the debate on extending the target age for screening programmes and to support initiatives to encourage tobacco smoking cessation even after cancer diagnosis. For patients who receive a cancer diagnosis in childhood, survival similar to highest values internationally.

Mid-term trends and recent birth-cohort-dependent changes in incidence rates of cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy.

In Oceania, North America and north-western Europe, after decades of increase, cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) rates began to stabilise or decline before 2000. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the reversal of the incidence trend is extending to southern Europe. To obtain a formal confirmation, this nationwide study from Italy investigated the incidence trends by birth cohort. Twenty-one local cancer registries covering a population of 15 814 455 provided incidence data for primary CMM registered between 1994 and 2013. Trends in age-standardised rates were analysed using joinpoint regression models and age-period-cohort models. Age-standardised incidence showed a consistent increase throughout the period (estimated annual percent change, 3.6 [95% confidence interval, 3.2-4.0] among men and 2.5 [2.0-3.1] among women). This pattern was confirmed by a sensitivity analysis with removal of low-risk populations of southern Italy. The rates, however, showed a stabilisation or a decrease in men and women aged below 35. Using the cohort of 1949-the median cohort with respect to the number of cases for both genders-as a reference, the incidence rate ratio increased for successive cohorts born until 1973 (women) and 1975 (men), and subsequently tended to decline. For the most recent cohorts in both genders, the risk of disease returned to the level of the cohort of 1949. The changes observed in the latest generations can be interpreted as the earliest manifestations of a birth-cohort-dependent incidence decrease. Our study adds to previous data indicating that the reversal of the long-term upward incidence trend of CMM is extending to southern Europe.

Results of Compliant Participation in Five Rounds of Fecal Immunochemical Test Screening for Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We investigated the magnitude and temporal patterns of the decreasing trend in main performance measures of fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) observed in second and subsequent rounds. METHODS: We followed up 494,187 participants from the first round of a regional biennial FIT screening program in Italy (cut-off value for positivity, 20 µg hemoglobin/g feces) for 5 total rounds (2005-2016). At each round, only compliant participants were eligible. Performance measures from the first, third, fourth, and fifth rounds were compared with those from the second round (the first incidence round) using rate ratios from multivariate Poisson regression models and relative risk ratios from multinomial logistic regression models. RESULTS: Between the second and the third rounds, a significant 20% to 30% decrease was found in the proportion of men with a positive FIT result (from 5.2% to 4.3%) and in detection rates of advanced adenoma (from 13.4 to 10.2 per 1000), CRC (from 1.7 to 1.4 per 1000), and advanced neoplasia (from 15.1 to 11.6 per 1000). Positive predictive values (PPVs) decreased by 10% or less between the second and third rounds. Detection rates and PPVs for adenoma stabilized by the fourth and fifth rounds. The PPVs for advanced adenoma, CRC, and advanced neoplasia decreased slightly in men and women by the fourth and fifth rounds. The detection rate of proximal colon cancer stabilized after the second round, whereas the detection rate of distal colon cancer decreased until the fourth round in men (from 0.7 to 0.3 per 1000), and the fifth round in women. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the notion that FIT screening prevents progression of a subset of advanced adenomas. Screening intensity could be modulated based on results from previous rounds, with a risk-based strategy.

Risk of Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagus in Patients With Achalasia: A Long-Term Prospective Cohort Study in Italy.

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological studies assessing relative risk and incidence rate of esophageal cancer in patients with achalasia are scarce. We performed a long-term prospective cohort study to evaluate the risk of both squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the esophagus in these patients. METHODS: Between 1973 and 2018, patients with primary achalasia were followed by the same protocol including upper endoscopy with esophageal biopsies. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to estimate the relative risk of esophageal cancer in patients with achalasia compared with the sex- and age-matched general population. RESULTS: A cohort of 566 patients with achalasia (46% men, mean age at diagnosis: 48.1 years) was followed for a mean of 15.5 years since the diagnosis of achalasia. Overall, 20 patients (15 men) developed esophageal cancer: 15 squamous cell carcinoma and 5 adenocarcinoma. The risk of esophageal cancer was significantly greater than the general population (SIR 104.2, 95% CI 63.7-161), and this for both squamous cell carcinoma (SIR 126.9, 95% CI 71.0-209.3) and adenocarcinoma (SIR 110.2, 95% CI 35.8-257.2). The excess risk was higher in men than women. Annual incidence rate of esophageal cancer was only 0.24% and was higher for squamous cell carcinoma (0.18%) than adenocarcinoma (0.06%). DISCUSSION: Patients with achalasia have an excess risk of developing both squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the esophagus; however, this prospective cohort study confirms that the annual incidence of esophageal cancer is rather low. These findings may have implications for endoscopic surveillance of patients with achalasia.

Colon cancer survival differs from right side to left side and lymph node harvest number matter.

BACKGROUND: Right-sided colorectal cancer (CRC) has worse survival than does left-sided CRC. The objective of this study was to further assess the impact of right-side location on survival and the role of the extent of lymphadenectomy. METHODS: All CRCs diagnosed between 2000 and 2012 in Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy, were included. Data for stage, grade, histology, screening history, and number of removed lymph nodes (LN) were collected. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR), with relative 95% confidence intervals (95%CI), of right vs. left colon and of removing < 12, 12-21 or > 21 lymph nodes by cancer site. RESULTS: During the study period, 29,358 patients were registered (8828 right colon, 18,852 left colon, 1678 transverse). Patients with right cancer were more often older, females, with advanced stage and high grade, and higher number of removed LNs. Five-year survival was lower in the right than in the left colon (55.2% vs 59.7%). In multivariable analysis, right colon showed a lower survival when adjusting for age, sex, and screening status (HR 1.12, 95%CI 1.04-1.21). Stratification by number of lymph nodes removed (12-21 or > 21) was associated with better survival in right colon (HR 0.54, 95%CI 0.40-0.72 and HR 0.40, 95%CI 0.30-0.55, respectively) compared to left colon (HR 0.89, 95%CI 0.76-1.06 and HR 0.83, 95%CI 0.69-1.01, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms that right CRC has worse survival; the association is not due to screening status. An adequate removal of lymph nodes is associated with better survival, although the direction of the association in terms of causal links is not clear.