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In the United States, estimates of excess deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently surpassed reported COVID-19 death counts. Excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes may represent unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, deaths caused by pandemic health care interruptions, and/or deaths from the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts. The geographic and temporal distribution of these deaths may help to evaluate which explanation is most plausible. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce monthly estimates of excess natural-cause mortality for US counties over the first 30 mo of the pandemic. From March 2020 through August 2022, 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths occurred nationally [90% PI (Posterior Interval): 1,046,000 to 1,340,204]. A total of 162,886 of these excess natural-cause deaths (90% PI: 14,276 to 308,480) were not reported to COVID-19. Overall, 15.8 excess deaths were reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes for every 100 reported COVID-19 deaths. This number was greater in nonmetropolitan counties (36.0 deaths), the West (Rocky Mountain states: 31.6 deaths; Pacific states: 25.5 deaths), and the South (East South Central states: 26.0 deaths; South Atlantic states: 25.0 deaths; West South Central states: 24.2 deaths). In contrast, reported COVID-19 death counts surpassed estimates of excess natural-cause deaths in metropolitan counties in the New England and Middle Atlantic states. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated temporally with increases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same and/or prior month. This suggests that many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes during the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the United States were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Pandemias , Teorema de Bayes , Causas de Muerte , New England , MortalidadRESUMEN
Objectives. To understand the occupational risk associated with COVID-19 among civilian critical workers (aged 16-65 years) in Minnesota. Methods. We estimated excess mortality in 2020 to 2021 for critical occupations in different racial groups and vaccine rollout phases using death certificates and occupational employment rates for 2017 to 2021. Results. Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic was higher for workers in critical occupations than for noncritical workers. Some critical occupations, such as transportation and logistics, construction, and food service, experienced higher excess mortality than did other critical occupations, such as health care, K-12 school staff, and agriculture. In almost all occupations investigated, workers of color experienced higher excess mortality than did White workers. Excess mortality in 2021 was greater than in 2020 across groups: occupations, vaccine eligibility tiers, and race/ethnicity. Conclusions. Although workers in critical occupations experienced greater excess mortality than did others, excess mortality among critical workers varied substantially by occupation and race. Public Health Implications. Analysis of mortality across occupations can be used to identify vulnerable populations, prioritize protective interventions for them, and develop targeted worker safety protocols to promote equitable health outcomes. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(11):1219-1222. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307395).
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COVID-19 , Vacunas , Humanos , Minnesota/epidemiología , Pandemias , OcupacionesRESUMEN
The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a catastrophic increase in US mortality. How does the scale of this pandemic compare to another US catastrophe: racial inequality? Using demographic models, I estimate how many excess White deaths would raise US White mortality to the best-ever (lowest) US Black level under alternative, plausible assumptions about the age patterning of excess mortality in 2020. I find that 400,000 excess White deaths would be needed to equal the best mortality ever recorded among Blacks. For White mortality in 2020 to reach levels that Blacks experience outside of pandemics, current COVID-19 mortality levels would need to increase by a factor of nearly 6. Moreover, White life expectancy in 2020 will remain higher than Black life expectancy has ever been unless nearly 700,000 excess White deaths occur. Even amid COVID-19, US White mortality is likely to be less than what US Blacks have experienced every year. I argue that, if Black disadvantage operates every year on the scale of Whites' experience of COVID-19, then so too should the tools we deploy to fight it. Our imagination should not be limited by how accustomed the United States is to profound racial inequality.
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Infecciones por Coronavirus/etnología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/mortalidad , Neumonía Viral/etnología , Neumonía Viral/mortalidad , Negro o Afroamericano/estadística & datos numéricos , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Humanos , Esperanza de Vida/etnología , Esperanza de Vida/tendencias , Mortalidad/etnología , Mortalidad/tendencias , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Factores Socioeconómicos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Población Blanca/estadística & datos numéricosAsunto(s)
Negro o Afroamericano , Armas de Fuego , Violencia con Armas , Homicidio , Mortalidad , Población Rural , Adolescente , Niño , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Negro o Afroamericano/estadística & datos numéricos , Armas de Fuego/estadística & datos numéricos , Violencia con Armas/etnología , Violencia con Armas/estadística & datos numéricos , Violencia con Armas/tendencias , Homicidio/etnología , Homicidio/estadística & datos numéricos , Homicidio/tendencias , Mortalidad/etnología , Mortalidad/tendencias , Población Rural/estadística & datos numéricos , Población Rural/tendencias , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Población Urbana/estadística & datos numéricos , Población Urbana/tendencias , Blanco/estadística & datos numéricos , Heridas por Arma de Fuego/epidemiología , Heridas por Arma de Fuego/etnología , Heridas por Arma de Fuego/mortalidadRESUMEN
Complexities in sample handling, instrument setup and data analysis are barriers to the effective use of flow cytometry to monitor immunological parameters in clinical trials. The novel use of a central laboratory may help mitigate these issues.
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Citometría de Flujo/métodos , Citometría de Flujo/normas , Ensayos Clínicos como Asunto , Humanos , Manejo de EspecímenesRESUMEN
What is the average lifespan in a stationary population viewed at a single moment in time? Even though periods and cohorts are identical in a stationary population, we show that the answer to this question is not life expectancy but a length-biased version of life expectancy. That is, the distribution of lifespans of the people alive at a single moment is a self-weighted distribution of cohort lifespans, such that longer lifespans have proportionally greater representation. One implication is that if death rates are unchanging, the average lifespan of the current population always exceeds period life expectancy. This result connects stationary population lifespan measures to a well-developed body of statistical results; provides new intuition for established demographic results; generates new insights into the relationship between periods, cohorts, and prevalent cohorts; and offers a framework for thinking about mortality selection more broadly than the concept of demographic frailty.
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Esperanza de Vida , Longevidad , Estudios de Cohortes , Humanos , Mortalidad , Dinámica PoblacionalRESUMEN
Against a backdrop of extreme racial health inequality, the 1918 influenza pandemic resulted in a striking reduction of non-White to White influenza and pneumonia mortality disparities in United States cities. We provide the most complete account to date of these reduced racial disparities, showing that they were unexpectedly uniform across cities. Linking data from multiple sources, we then examine potential explanations for this finding, including city-level sociodemographic factors such as segregation, implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions, racial differences in exposure to the milder spring 1918 "herald wave," and racial differences in early-life influenza exposures, resulting in differential immunological vulnerability to the 1918 flu. While we find little evidence for the first three explanations, we offer suggestive evidence that racial variation in childhood exposure to the 1889-1892 influenza pandemic may have shrunk racial disparities in 1918. We also highlight the possibility that differential behavioral responses to the herald wave may have protected non-White urban populations. By providing a comprehensive description and examination of racial inequality in mortality during the 1918 pandemic, we offer a framework for understanding disparities in infectious disease mortality that considers interactions between the natural histories of particular microbial agents and the social histories of those they infect.
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Gripe Humana , Ciudades , Disparidades en el Estado de Salud , Humanos , Pandemias , Grupos Raciales , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Understanding the relationship between populations at different scales plays an important role in many demographic analyses. OBJECTIVE: We show that when a population can be partitioned into subgroups, the death rate for the entire population can be written as the weighted harmonic mean of the death rates in each subgroup, where the weights are given by the numbers of deaths in each subgroup. This decomposition can be generalized to other types of occurrence-exposure rate. Using different weights, the death rate for the entire population can also be expressed as an arithmetic mean of the death rates in each subgroup. CONTRIBUTION: We use these relationships as a starting point for investigating how demographers can correctly aggregate rates across non-overlapping subgroups. Our analysis reveals conceptual links between classic demographic models and length-biased sampling. To illustrate how the harmonic mean can suggest new interpretations of demographic relationships, we present as an application a new expression for the frailty of the dying, given a standard demographic frailty model.
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Theoretical models of mortality selection have great utility in explaining otherwise puzzling phenomena. The most famous example may be the Black-White mortality crossover: at old ages, Blacks outlive Whites, presumably because few frail Blacks survive to old ages while some frail Whites do. Yet theoretical models of unidimensional heterogeneity, or frailty, do not speak to the most common empirical situation for mortality researchers: the case in which some important population heterogeneity is observed and some is not. I show that, when one dimension of heterogeneity is observed and another is unobserved, neither the observed nor the unobserved dimension need behave as classic frailty models predict. For example, in a multidimensional model, mortality selection can increase the proportion of survivors who are disadvantaged, or "frail," and can lead Black survivors to be more frail than Whites, along some dimensions of disadvantage. Transferring theoretical results about unidimensional heterogeneity to settings with both observed and unobserved heterogeneity produces misleading inferences about mortality disparities. The unusually flexible behavior of individual dimensions of multidimensional heterogeneity creates previously unrecognized challenges for empirically testing selection models of disparities, such as models of mortality crossovers.
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Negro o Afroamericano/estadística & datos numéricos , Fragilidad/etnología , Población Blanca/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Fragilidad/mortalidad , Estado de Salud , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores Socioeconómicos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
In the first half of the twentieth century, the rate of death from infectious disease in the United States fell precipitously. Although this decline is well-known and well-documented, there is surprisingly little evidence about whether it took place uniformly across the regions of the United States. We use data on infectious disease deaths from all reporting U.S. cities to describe regional patterns in the decline of urban infectious mortality from 1900 to 1948. We report three main results. First, urban infectious mortality was higher in the South in every year from 1900 to 1948. Second, infectious mortality declined later in southern cities than in cities in the other regions. Third, comparatively high infectious mortality in southern cities was driven primarily by extremely high infectious mortality among African Americans. From 1906 to 1920, African Americans in cities experienced a rate of death from infectious disease that was greater than what urban whites experienced during the 1918 flu pandemic.
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Negro o Afroamericano/estadística & datos numéricos , Enfermedades Transmisibles/etnología , Enfermedades Transmisibles/mortalidad , Población Urbana/estadística & datos numéricos , Población Blanca/estadística & datos numéricos , Ciudades/epidemiología , Femenino , Historia del Siglo XX , Humanos , Influenza Pandémica, 1918-1919/mortalidad , Masculino , Características de la Residencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Sudeste de Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Rabies, a millennia-old viral infection transmitted through animal bites, poses a lethal threat to humans, with a historic fatality rate of 100% if left untreated. Louis Pasteur's introduction of the rabies vaccine in 1885 marked a turning point in the battle against rabies, preventing numerous cases. The purpose of this paper is to review the historical development, current challenges, and future prospects of rabies vaccination and treatment, with emphasis on the importance of continued research and collaborative efforts in the quest to eradicate this deadly infection. Historical vaccine development progressed from inactivated to live-attenuated forms, with modern recombinant techniques showing promise. The preventive measures at present primarily involve vaccination, but challenges persist, such as differing safety profiles and immunogenicity among vaccine types. Pre-exposure prophylaxis with a three-dose vaccine series is crucial, especially in high-risk scenarios. Post-exposure prophylaxis combines human rabies immunoglobulin and inactivated rabies virus vaccine. The quest for the next generation of vaccines explores genetically modified and viral vector-based approaches; emerging treatments include gene therapy, virus-like particles, and monoclonal antibodies, offering hope for improved outcomes. Economic barriers to post-exposure prophylaxis, limited education, and awareness challenge rabies control. Cost-effective solutions and comprehensive awareness campaigns are vital for the successful eradication of rabies. More research and collaborative endeavors remain pivotal in the ongoing journey to eradicate rabies, one of the deadliest infectious diseases known to humans, if not met with prophylactic measures.
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It has been common both to make and to resist comparisons that equate the Covid-19 pandemic to influenza. We take the comparison between Covid-19 and flu seriously by asking how many years of influenza and pneumonia deaths are needed for cumulative deaths to those two causes to equal the cumulative toll of the Covid-19 pandemic between March 2020 and February 2023-that is, three years of pandemic deaths. We find that in one state alone-Hawaii-three years of Covid-19 mortality is equivalent to influenza and pneumonia mortality in the three years preceding the Covid-19 pandemic. For all other states, at least nine years of flu and pneumonia are needed to match Covid-19; for the United States as a whole, seventeen years are needed; and for four states, more than 21 years (the maximum observable) are needed. These results provide an easy-to-understand calibration of flu as a heuristic for Covid-19, and vice versa.
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INTRODUCTION: Recent research underscores the exceptionally young age distribution of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. compared with that of international peers. This paper characterizes how high levels of COVID-19 mortality at midlife ages (45-64 years) are deeply intertwined with continuing racial inequity in COVID-19 mortality. METHODS: Mortality data from Minnesota in 2020-2022 were analyzed in June 2022. Death certificate data (COVID-19 deaths N=12,771) and published vaccination rates in Minnesota allow vaccination and mortality rates to be observed with greater age and temporal precision than national data. RESULTS: Black, Hispanic, and Asian adults aged <65 years were all more highly vaccinated than White populations of the same ages during most of Minnesota's substantial and sustained Delta surge and all the subsequent Omicron surges. However, White mortality rates were lower than those of all other groups. These disparities were extreme; at midlife ages (ages 45-64 years), during the Omicron period, more highly vaccinated populations had COVID-19 mortality that was 164% (Asian-American), 115% (Hispanic), or 208% (Black) of White COVID-19 mortality at these ages. In Black, Indigenous, and People of Color populations as a whole, COVID-19 mortality at ages 55-64 years was greater than White mortality at 10 years older. CONCLUSIONS: This discrepancy between vaccination and mortality patterning by race/ethnicity suggests that if the current period is a pandemic of the unvaccinated, it also remains a pandemic of the disadvantaged in ways that can decouple from vaccination rates. This result implies an urgent need to center health equity in the development of COVID-19 policy measures.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Adulto , Humanos , COVID-19/prevención & control , Minnesota/epidemiología , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , VacunaciónRESUMEN
Coccidioidomycosis, also termed Valley fever, is a fungal infection caused by the inhalation of Coccidioides endospores. Once inhaled by a human host, the arthroconidia endospores travel to the lungs' alveoli to transform into spherules that grow and rupture to release more endospores. In the host immune response, macrophages, neutrophils, and dendritic cells will recognize the fungal antigen, producing pro-inflammatory cytokine. Th2 lymphocytes (type 2 helper T cells) are theorized to be the main human defense against Coccidioides given that Th2 deficiency is seen in patients with disseminated forms of the disease. A common triad of symptoms of coccidioidomycosis, also called "desert rheumatism," include fever, erythema nodosum, and arthralgia, often accompanied by a respiratory problem. In a clinical setting, along with the evaluation of symptoms, a medical provider may also test the patient's blood using antibody tests or perform microscopy to directly detect the presence of Coccidioides in a patient tissue sample for confirmation of a diagnosis. Imaging modalities may also be used to determine lung involvement and assess disease progression. A majority of coccidioidomycosis cases do not require specific treatment and will resolve on their own, so an approach with symptomatic treatment in mind is appropriate. If symptoms do not resolve, azoles or amphotericin B may be used, with the standard drug of choice being fluconazole (Diflucan, Pfizer, New York, New York, United States). Treatment varies depending on the immunocompetency of the patient. To name a few, pregnant patients and those with history of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or transplantation require special considerations.
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Importance: Prior research has established that Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black residents in the US experienced substantially higher COVID-19 mortality rates in 2020 than non-Hispanic White residents owing to structural racism. In 2021, these disparities decreased. Objective: To assess to what extent national decreases in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial pandemic wave and subsequent Omicron wave reflect reductions in mortality vs other factors, such as the pandemic's changing geography. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2022, among adults aged 25 years and older residing in the US. Deaths were examined by race and ethnicity across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, and the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities between initial and Omicron waves was decomposed. Data were analyzed from June 2021 through March 2023. Exposures: Metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan areas and race and ethnicity. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized death rates. Results: There were death certificates for 977â¯018 US adults aged 25 years and older (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [14.6] years; 435â¯943 female [44.6%]; 156â¯948 Hispanic [16.1%], 140â¯513 non-Hispanic Black [14.4%], and 629â¯578 non-Hispanic White [64.4%]) that included a mention of COVID-19. The proportion of COVID-19 deaths among adults residing in nonmetropolitan areas increased from 5944 of 110â¯526 deaths (5.4%) during the initial wave to a peak of 40â¯360 of 172â¯515 deaths (23.4%) during the Delta wave; the proportion was 45â¯183 of 210â¯554 deaths (21.5%) during the Omicron wave. The national disparity in age-standardized COVID-19 death rates per 100â¯000 person-years for non-Hispanic Black compared with non-Hispanic White adults decreased from 339 to 45 deaths from the initial to Omicron wave, or by 293 deaths. After standardizing for age and racial and ethnic differences by metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan residence, increases in death rates among non-Hispanic White adults explained 120 deaths/100â¯000 person-years of the decrease (40.7%); 58 deaths/100â¯000 person-years in the decrease (19.6%) were explained by shifts in mortality to nonmetropolitan areas, where a disproportionate share of non-Hispanic White adults reside. The remaining 116 deaths/100â¯000 person-years in the decrease (39.6%) were explained by decreases in death rates in non-Hispanic Black adults. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that most of the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial and Omicron waves was explained by increased mortality among non-Hispanic White adults and changes in the geographic spread of the pandemic. These findings suggest that despite media reports of a decline in disparities, there is a continued need to prioritize racial health equity in the pandemic response.
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COVID-19 , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Población Negra/estadística & datos numéricos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/etnología , COVID-19/mortalidad , Estudios Transversales , Etnicidad/estadística & datos numéricos , Hispánicos o Latinos/estadística & datos numéricos , Negro o Afroamericano/estadística & datos numéricos , Blanco/estadística & datos numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Disparidades en el Estado de Salud , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Masculino , Equidad en Salud , Racismo Sistemático/etnologíaRESUMEN
The authors provide the first age-standardized race/ethnicity-specific, state-specific vaccination rates for the United States. Data encompass all states reporting race/ethnicity-specific vaccinations and reflect vaccinations through mid-October 2021, just before eligibility expanded below age 12. Using indirect age standardization, the authors compare racial/ethnic state vaccination rates with national rates. The results show that white and Black state median vaccination rates are, respectively, 89 percent and 76 percent of what would be predicted on the basis of age; Hispanic and Native rates are almost identical to what would be predicted; and Asian American/Pacific Islander rates are 110 percent of what would be predicted. The authors also find that racial/ethnic vaccination rates are associated with state politics, as proxied by 2020 Trump vote share: for each percentage point increase in Trump vote share, vaccination rates decline by 1.08 percent of what would be predicted on the basis of age. This decline is sharpest for Native American vaccinations, although these are reported for relatively few states.
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Over the early twentieth century, urban centers adopted full-time public health departments. We show that opening full-time administration had little observable impact on mortality. We then attempt to determine why health departments were ineffective. Our results suggest that achievements in public health occurred regardless of health department status. Further, we find that cities with and without a full-time health department allocated similar per capita expenditures towards health administration. This health department funding also better predicts infant mortality declines. Our conclusions indicate that specific campaigns, public health systems, and funding may have been more meaningful for local health over this era.
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This research brief provides one of the first examinations of the impact of COVID-19 mortality on immigrant communities in the United States. In the absence of national data, we examine COVID-19 deaths in Minnesota, historically one of the major U.S. refugee destinations, using individual-level death certificates obtained from the Minnesota Department of Health Office of Vital Records. Minnesota's foreign-born crude COVID-19 death rates were similar to rates for the US-born, but COVID-19 death rates adjusted for age and gender were twice as high among the foreign-born. Among foreign-born Latinos, in particular, COVID-19 mortality was concentrated in relatively younger, prime working age men. Moreover, the place-based and temporal patterns of COVID-19 mortality were quite distinct, with the majority of US-born mortality concentrated in long-term care facilities and late in 2020, and foreign-born mortality occurring outside of residential institutions and earlier in the pandemic. The disparate impacts of COVID-19 for foreign-born Minnesotans demonstrate the need for targeted public health planning and intervention in immigrant communities. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-021-09668-1.
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Prior research has established that American Indian, Alaska Native, Black, Hispanic, and Pacific Islander populations in the United States have experienced substantially higher mortality rates from Covid-19 compared to non-Hispanic white residents during the first year of the pandemic. What remains less clear is how mortality rates have changed for each of these racial/ethnic groups during 2021, given the increasing prevalence of vaccination. In particular, it is unknown how these changes in mortality have varied geographically. In this study, we used provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) to produce age-standardized estimates of Covid-19 mortality by race/ethnicity in the United States from March 2020 to February 2022 in each metro-nonmetro category, Census region, and Census division. We calculated changes in mortality rates between the first and second years of the pandemic and examined mortality changes by month. We found that when Covid-19 first affected a geographic area, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic populations experienced extremely high levels of Covid-19 mortality and racial/ethnic inequity that were not repeated at any other time during the pandemic. Between the first and second year of the pandemic, racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality decreased-but were not eliminated-for Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic AIAN residents. These inequities decreased due to reductions in mortality for these populations alongside increases in non-Hispanic white mortality. Though racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality decreased, substantial inequities still existed in most geographic areas during the pandemic's second year: Non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic AIAN, and Hispanic residents reported higher Covid-19 death rates in rural areas than in urban areas, indicating that these communities are facing serious public health challenges. At the same time, the non-Hispanic white mortality rate worsened in rural areas during the second year of the pandemic, suggesting there may be unique factors driving mortality in this population. Finally, vaccination rates were associated with reductions in Covid-19 mortality for Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic white residents, and increased vaccination may have contributed to the decreases in racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality observed during the second year of the pandemic. Despite reductions in mortality, Covid-19 mortality remained elevated in nonmetro areas and increased for some racial/ethnic groups, highlighting the need for increased vaccination delivery and equitable public health measures especially in rural communities. Taken together, these findings highlight the continued need to prioritize health equity in the pandemic response and to modify the structures and policies through which systemic racism operates and has generated racial health inequities.