Mapping the connectivity-conflict interface to inform conservation.

Balancing the competing, and often conflicting, needs of people and wildlife in shared landscapes is a major challenge for conservation science and policy worldwide. Connectivity is critical for wildlife persistence, but dispersing animals may come into conflict with people, leading to severe costs for humans and animals and impeding connectivity. Thus, conflict mitigation and connectivity present an apparent dilemma for conservation. We present a framework to address this dilemma and disentangle the effects of barriers to animal movement and conflict-induced mortality of dispersers on connectivity. We extend random-walk theory to map the connectivity-conflict interface, or areas where frequent animal movement may lead to conflict and conflict in turn impedes connectivity. We illustrate this framework with the endangered Asian elephant Elephas maximus, a species that frequently disperses out of protected areas and comes into conflict with humans. We mapped expected movement across a human-dominated landscape over the short- and long-term, accounting for conflict mortality. Natural and conflict-induced mortality together reduced expected movement and connectivity among populations. Based on model validation, our conflict predictions that explicitly captured animal movement better explained observed conflict than a model that considered distribution alone. Our work highlights the interaction between connectivity and conflict and enables identification of location-specific conflict mitigation strategies that minimize losses to people, while ensuring critical wildlife movement between habitats. By predicting where animal movement and humans collide, we provide a basis to plan for broad-scale conservation and the mutual well-being of wildlife and people in shared landscapes.

Frightened of giants: fear responses to elephants approach that of predators.

Animals are faced with a variety of dangers or threats, which are increasing in frequency with ongoing environmental change. While our understanding of fearfulness of such dangers is growing in the context of predation and parasitism risk, the extent to which non-trophic, interspecific dangers elicit fear in animals remains less appreciated. We provide an experimental test for fear responses of savannah ungulates to a dominant and aggressive megaherbivore, the African bush elephant (Loxodonta africana), and contrast responses to an apex predator known to elicit fear in this system. Using an automated behavioural response system, we contrast vigilance and run responses of ungulates to elephant, leopard (Panthera pardus), and control (red-chested cuckoo Cuculus solitarius) vocalizations. Overall, we find that ungulates responded to elephant calls, both in terms of an increase in run and vigilance responses relative to controls. The magnitude of most behavioural responses (four of six considered) to elephant vocalizations were not significantly different than responses to leopards. These results suggest that megaherbivores can elicit strong non-trophic fear responses by ungulates and call to broaden frameworks on fear to consider dominant species, such as megaherbivores, as key modifiers of fear-induced interactions.

The allometry of movement predicts the connectivity of communities.

Connectivity has long played a central role in ecological and evolutionary theory and is increasingly emphasized for conserving biodiversity. Nonetheless, connectivity assessments often focus on individual species even though understanding and preserving connectivity for entire communities is urgently needed. Here we derive and test a framework that harnesses the well-known allometric scaling of animal movement to predict community-level connectivity across protected area networks. We used a field translocation experiment involving 39 species of southern African birds to quantify movement capacity, scaled this relationship to realized dispersal distances determined from ring-and-recovery banding data, and used allometric scaling equations to quantify community-level connectivity based on multilayer network theory. The translocation experiment explained observed dispersal distances from ring-recovery data and emphasized allometric scaling of dispersal based on morphology. Our community-level networks predicted that larger-bodied species had a relatively high potential for connectivity, while small-bodied species had lower connectivity. These community networks explained substantial variation in observed bird diversity across protected areas. Our results highlight that harnessing allometric scaling can be an effective way of determining large-scale community connectivity. We argue that this trait-based framework founded on allometric scaling provides a means to predict connectivity for entire communities, which can foster empirical tests of community theory and contribute to biodiversity conservation strategies aimed at mitigating the effects of environmental change.

An invasive prey provides long-lasting silver spoon effects for an endangered predator.

The natal environment can have long-term fitness consequences for individuals, particularly via 'silver spoon' or 'environmental matching' effects. Invasive species could alter natal effects on native species by changing species interactions, but this potential remains unknown. Using 17 years of data on 2588 individuals across the entire US breeding range of the endangered snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis), a wetland raptor that feeds entirely on Pomacea snails, we tested for silver spoon and environmental matching effects on survival and movement and whether the invasion of a non-native snail may alter outcomes. We found support for silver spoon effects, not environmental matching, on survival that operated through body condition at fledging, explained by hydrology in the natal wetland. When non-native snails were present at the natal site, kites were in better condition, individual condition was less sensitive to hydrology, and kites fledged across a wider range of hydrologic conditions, leading to higher survival that persisted for at least 10 years. Movement between wetlands was driven by the current (adult) environment, and birds born in both invaded and uninvaded wetlands preferred to occupy invaded wetlands post-fledging. These results illustrate that species invasions may profoundly impact the role of natal environments on native species.

Conserving alpha and beta diversity in wood-production landscapes.

International demand for wood and other forest products continues to grow rapidly, and uncertainties remain about how animal communities will respond to intensifying resource extraction associated with woody bioenergy production. We examined changes in alpha and beta diversity of bats, bees, birds, and reptiles across wood production landscapes in the southeastern United States, a biodiversity hotspot that is one of the principal sources of woody biomass globally. We sampled across a spatial gradient of paired forest land-uses (representing pre and postharvest) that allowed us to evaluate biological community changes resulting from several types of biomass harvest. Short-rotation practices and residue removal following clearcuts were associated with reduced alpha diversity (-14.1 and -13.9 species, respectively) and lower beta diversity (i.e., Jaccard dissimilarity) between land-use pairs (0.46 and 0.50, respectively), whereas midrotation thinning increased alpha (+3.5 species) and beta diversity (0.59). Over the course of a stand rotation in a single location, biomass harvesting generally led to less biodiversity. Cross-taxa responses to resource extraction were poorly predicted by alpha diversity: correlations in responses between taxonomic groups were highly variable (-0.2 to 0.4) with large uncertainties. In contrast, beta diversity patterns were highly consistent and predictable across taxa, where correlations in responses between taxonomic groups were all positive (0.05-0.4) with more narrow uncertainties. Beta diversity may, therefore, be a more reliable and information-rich indicator than alpha diversity in understanding animal community response to landscape change. Patterns in beta diversity were primarily driven by turnover instead of species loss or gain, indicating that wood extraction generates habitats that support different biological communities.

Conservación de la Diversidad Alfa y Beta en Paisajes de Producción Maderera Resumen La demanda internacional de madera y otros productos forestales sigue creciendo rápidamente mientras permanecen las incertidumbres sobre cómo responderán las comunidades animales a la intensificación de la extracción de recursos asociada con la producción de bioenergía leñosa. Examinamos los cambios en la diversidad alfa y beta de murciélagos, abejas, aves y reptiles en los paisajes de producción maderera en el sureste de los Estados Unidos, un punto caliente de biodiversidad y una de las fuentes principales de biomasa leñosa a nivel mundial. Muestreamos a lo largo de un gradiente espacial de usos de suelo forestales emparejados (representando la pre- y postcosecha) que nos permitió evaluar los cambios en las comunidades biológicas resultantes de varios tipos de recolección de biomasa. Las prácticas de corta rotación y de eliminación de residuos después de la tala estuvieron asociadas con la reducción de la diversidad alfa (−14.1 y −13.9 especies, respectivamente) y una diversidad beta más baja (es decir, diferencia de Jaccard) entre los pares de uso de suelo (0.46 y 0.50, respectivamente), mientras que el raleo de rotación media incrementó la diversidad alfa (+3.5 especies) y beta (0.59). Durante la duración de una rotación permanente en una sola ubicación, la cosecha de biomasa generalmente derivó en menos biodiversidad. La respuesta de los taxones a la extracción de recursos estuvo muy mal pronosticada por la diversidad alfa: la correlación de las respuestas entre los grupos taxonómicos fue altamente variable (−0.2 a 0.4) con muchas incertidumbres. Como contraste, los patrones de diversidad beta fueron fuertemente coherentes y predecibles en todos los taxones, mientras que la correlación de las respuestas entre los grupos taxonómicos siempre fue positiva (0.05 a 0.4) con incertidumbres más limitadas. Por lo tanto, la diversidad beta puede ser un indicador más confiable y rico en información que la diversidad alfa para entender las respuestas de la comunidad animal a los cambios en el paisaje. Los patrones de la diversidad beta estuvieron impulsados principalmente por la rotación en lugar de la pérdida o ganancia de especies, lo que indica que la extracción de madera genera hábitats que mantienen a diferentes comunidades biológicas.

Straight from the horse's mouth: Increasing self-report in mental health assessment in individuals with intellectual disability.

BACKGROUND: Mental health conditions are common among individuals with intellectual disability. Under recognition of mental health disorders leading to unmet treatment needs is common in this population. This article addresses one major contributing factor, the lack of cognitively accessible self-report measures for individuals with intellectual disability. METHOD: In this literature-informed overview of the state of the field, we discuss the need for, and complexities of, including individuals with intellectual disability in mental health assessments. RESULTS: With appropriate supports, many individuals with intellectual disability can respond to mental health questions. We discuss evidence-based strategies to make mental health assessments more accessible. CONCLUSION: We highlight the need to engage individuals with intellectual disability to provide first-hand information about their health and well-being. New instruments and research procedures should be developed in partnership with individuals with intellectual disability. Self-report may be essential to advancing the science of mental health research.

The demographic contributions of connectivity versus local dynamics to population growth of an endangered bird.

Conservation and management increasingly focus on connectivity, because connectivity driven by variation in immigration rates across landscapes is thought to be crucial for maintaining local population and metapopulation persistence. Yet, efforts to quantify the relative role of immigration on population growth across the entire range of species and over time have been lacking. We assessed whether immigration limited local and range-wide population growth of the endangered snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis in Florida, USA, over 18 years using multi-state, reverse-time modelling that accounts for imperfect detection of individuals and unobservable states. Demographic contributions of immigration varied depending on the dynamics and geographic position of the local populations, were scale-dependent and changed over time. By comparing the relative contributions of immigration versus local demography for periods of significant change in local abundance, we found empirical evidence for a disproportionately large role of immigration in facilitating population growth of a centrally located population-a connectivity 'hub'. The importance of connectivity changed depending of the spatial scale considered, such that immigration was a more important driver of population growth at small versus large spatial scales. Furthermore, the contribution of immigration was much greater during time periods when local population size was small, emphasizing abundance-dependent rescue effects. Our findings suggest that efforts aimed at improving local breeding habitat will likely be most effective at increasing snail kite population growth. More broadly, our results provide much needed information on the role of connectivity for population growth, suggesting that connectivity conservation may have the greatest benefits when efforts focus on centrally located habitat patches and small populations. Furthermore, our results highlight that connectivity is highly dynamic over time and that interpreting the effects of connectivity at local scales may not transfer to region-wide dynamics.

Effects of bioenergy on biodiversity arising from land-use change and crop type.

Understanding how the world's flora and fauna will respond to bioenergy expansion is critical. This issue is particularly pronounced considering bioenergy's potential role as a driver of land-use change, the variety of production crops being considered and currently used for biomass, and the diversity of ecosystems that can potentially supply land for bioenergy across the planet. We conducted 2 global meta-analyses to determine how 8 of the most commonly used bioenergy crops may affect site-level biodiversity. One search was directed at finding data on biodiversity in different production land uses and the other at extracting energy-yield estimates of potential bioenergy crops. We used linear mixed-effect models to test whether effects on biodiversity varied with different individual bioenergy crop species, estimated energy yield, first- or second-generation crops, type of reference ecosystem considered, and magnitude of vertical change in habitat structure between any given crop and the reference ecosystem. Species diversity and abundance were generally lower in crops considered for bioenergy relative to the natural ecosystems they may replace. First-generation crops, derived from oils, sugars, and starches, tended to have greater effects than second-generation crops, derived from lignocellulose, woody crops, or residues. Crop yield had nonlinear effects on abundance and, to a lesser extent, overall biodiversity; biodiversity effects were driven by negative yield effects for birds but not other taxa. Our results emphasize that replacing natural ecosystems with bioenergy crops across the planet will largely be detrimental for biodiversity, with first generation and high-yield crops having the strongest negative effects. We argue that meeting energy goals with bioenergy using existing marginal lands or biomass extraction within existing production landscapes may provide more biodiversity-friendly alternatives than conversion of natural ecosystems for biofuel production.

RESUMEN: Es de suma importancia entender cómo responderán la flora y la fauna mundial ante la expansión de la bioenergía. Este tema es acentuado particularmente si consideramos el papel potencial que tiene la bioenergía como causante del cambio en el uso de suelo, la variedad de producción de cultivos que se está considerando y que se usa actualmente para la biomasa y la diversidad de ecosistemas que potencialmente pueden proporcionar tierras para la bioenergía en todo el planeta. Realizamos dos meta-análisis mundiales para determinar cómo ocho de los cultivos que se usan con mayor frecuencia para la bioenergía podrían afectar a la biodiversidad a nivel de sitio. Una búsqueda estuvo dirigida al hallazgo de datos sobre la biodiversidad en diferentes usos de suelo para producción y la otra hacia la extracción de estimaciones de producción de energía de los cultivos potenciales para la bioenergía. Usamos modelos de efectos lineales mixtos para probar si los efectos sobre la biodiversidad variaron con diferentes especies individuales de cultivos para bioenergía, la producción de energía estimada, los cultivos de primera o segunda generación, el tipo de ecosistema de referencia considerado y la magnitud del cambio vertical en la estructura del hábitat entre cualquier cultivo dado y el ecosistema de referencia. La diversidad y la abundancia de especies fueron generalmente más bajas para los cultivos considerados para la bioenergía en relación con el ecosistema natural que podrían reemplazar. Los cultivos de primera generación, derivados de aceites, azúcares y almidones, tendieron a tener efectos más grandes que los cultivos de segunda generación, derivados de la lignocelulosa, cultivos leñosos o residuos. La producción de cultivos tuvo efectos no lineales sobre la abundancia y, a una menor extensión, sobre la biodiversidad en general; los efectos de la biodiversidad fueron causados por los efectos negativos de producción para las aves pero no para otros taxones. Nuestros resultados enfatizan que el reemplazo de ecosistemas naturales por cultivos para la bioenergía en todo el planeta será considerablemente perjudicial para la biodiversidad, con los efectos negativos más fuertes ocasionados por los cultivos de primera generación o de alta producción. Argumentamos que lograr los objetivos de energía por medio de bioenergía usando las tierras marginales existentes o la extracción de biomasa dentro de paisajes existentes de producción puede proporcionar alternativas más amigables para la biodiversidad que la conversión de los ecosistemas naturales para la producción de biocombustibles.

Isolating the roles of movement and reproduction on effective connectivity alters conservation priorities for an endangered bird.

Movement is important for ecological and evolutionary theory as well as connectivity conservation, which is increasingly critical for species responding to environmental change. Key ecological and evolutionary outcomes of movement, such as population growth and gene flow, require effective dispersal: movement that is followed by successful reproduction. However, the relative roles of movement and postmovement reproduction for effective dispersal and connectivity remain unclear. Here we isolate the contributions of movement and immigrant reproduction to effective dispersal and connectivity across the entire breeding range of an endangered raptor, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). To do so, we unite mark-resight data on movement and reproduction across 9 years and 27 breeding patches with an integrated model that decomposes effective dispersal into its hierarchical levels of movement, postmovement breeding attempt, and postmovement reproductive success. We found that immigrant reproduction limits effective dispersal more than movement for this endangered species, demonstrating that even highly mobile species may have limited effective connectivity due to reduced immigrant reproduction. We found different environmental limitations for the reproductive component of effective dispersal compared with movement, indicating that different conservation strategies may be needed when promoting effective dispersal rather than movement alone. We also demonstrate that considering immigrant reproduction, rather than movement alone, alters which patches are the most essential for connectivity, thereby changing conservation priorities. These results challenge the assumption that understanding movement alone is sufficient to infer connectivity and highlight that connectivity conservation may require not only fostering movement but also successful reproduction of immigrants.

Bat community response to intensification of biomass production for bioenergy across the southeastern United States.

Human demand for food, fiber, and space is accelerating the rate of change of land cover and land use. Much of the world now consists of a matrix of natural forests, managed forests, agricultural cropland, and urbanized plots. Expansion of domestic energy production efforts in the United States is one driver predicted to influence future land-use and land management practices across large spatial scales. Favorable growing conditions make the southeastern United States an ideal location for producing a large portion of the country's renewable bioenergy. We investigated patterns of bat occurrence in two bioenergy feedstocks commonly grown in this region (corn, Zea mays, and pine, Pinus taeda and P. elliottii). We also evaluated potential impacts of the three major pathways of woody biomass extraction (residue removal following clearcut harvest, short-rotation energy plantations, and mid-rotation forest thinning) to bat occurrence through a priori land-use contrasts. We acoustically sampled bat vocalizations at 84 sites in the Southeastern Plains and Southern Coastal Plains of the southeastern United States across three years. We found that mid-rotation thinning resulted in positive effects on bat occurrence, and potential conversion of unmanaged (reference) forest to managed forest for timber and/or bioenergy harvest resulted in negative effects on bat occurrence when effects were averaged across all species. The effects of short-rotation energy plantations, removal of logging residues from plantation clearcuts, and corn were equivocal for all bat species examined. Our results suggest that accelerated production of biomass for energy production through either corn or intensively managed pine forests is not likely to have an adverse effect on bat communities, so long as existing older unmanaged forests are not converted to managed bioenergy or timber plantations. Beyond bioenergy crop production, mid-rotation thinning of even-aged pine stands intended for timber production, increases to the duration of plantation rotations to promote older forest stands, arranging forest stands and crop fields to maximize edge habitat, and maintaining unmanaged forests could benefit bat communities by augmenting roosting and foraging opportunities.

Urbanization and Population Genetic Structure of the Panama City crayfish (Procambarus econfinae).

For species with geographically restricted distributions, the impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation on long-term persistence may be particularly pronounced. We examined the genetic structure of Panama City crayfish (PCC), Procambarus econfinae, whose historical distribution is limited to an area approximately 145 km2, largely within the limits of Panama City and eastern Bay County, FL. Currently, PCC occupy approximately 28% of its historical range, with suitable habitat composed of fragmented patches in the highly urbanized western portion of the range and managed plantations in the more contiguous eastern portion of the range. We used 1640 anonymous single-nucleotide polymorphisms to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic habitat modification on the genetic diversity and population structure of 161 PCC sampled from across its known distribution. First, we examined urban habitat patches in the west compared with less-developed habitat patches in the east. Second, we used approximate Bayesian computation to model inferences on the demographic history of eastern and western populations. We found anthropogenic habitat modifications explain the genetic structure of PCC range-wide. Clustering analyses revealed significant genetic structure between and within eastern and western regions. Estimates of divergence between east and west were consistent with urban growth in the mid-20th century. PCC have low genetic diversity and high levels of inbreeding and relatedness, indicating populations are small and isolated. Our results suggest that PCC have been strongly affected by habitat loss and fragmentation and management strategies, including legal protection, translocations, or reintroductions, may be necessary to ensure long-term persistence.

Towards a unified framework for connectivity that disentangles movement and mortality in space and time.

Predicting connectivity, or how landscapes alter movement, is essential for understanding the scope for species persistence with environmental change. Although it is well known that movement is risky, connectivity modelling often conflates behavioural responses to the matrix through which animals disperse with mortality risk. We derive new connectivity models using random walk theory, based on the concept of spatial absorbing Markov chains. These models decompose the role of matrix on movement behaviour and mortality risk, can incorporate species distribution to predict the amount of flow, and provide both short- and long-term analytical solutions for multiple connectivity metrics. We validate the framework using data on movement of an insect herbivore in 15 experimental landscapes. Our results demonstrate that disentangling the roles of movement behaviour and mortality risk is fundamental to accurately interpreting landscape connectivity, and that spatial absorbing Markov chains provide a generalisable and powerful framework with which to do so.

The number of breeders explains genetic connectivity in an endangered bird.

Connectivity is central to ecology and evolution as it focuses on the movement of individuals or genes across landscapes. Genetic connectivity approaches aim to understand gene flow but often estimate it indirectly based on metrics of genetic differentiation, which can also be affected by other evolutionary forces such as genetic drift. Gene flow and genetic drift are driven by separate ecological mechanisms with potentially differing effects on genetic differentiation and interpretations of genetic connectivity. The ecological mechanisms contributing to gene flow and genetic drift are primarily effective dispersal, or movement followed by successful reproduction, and the number of breeders in a local population, Nb , respectively. Yet, rarely are these ecological mechanisms and genetic connectivity measured simultaneously across landscapes. We examine the roles of effective dispersal and Nb on genetic connectivity across the entire range of the endangered snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus), between 2006-2015. We find that both Nb and effective dispersal are important predictors of genetic connectivity across this landscape, but that Nb has a 3 × stronger effect on genetic connectivity. Furthermore, Nb is positively correlated with heterozygosity and allelic richness within patches, suggesting a potentially important role of genetic drift, in addition to gene flow, on genetic connectivity. These results emphasize that conservation efforts should focus on not only between-patch processes of movement but also within-patch processes regarding habitat quality and local population size for increasing genetic connectivity.

The negative effects of habitat fragmentation operate at the scale of dispersal.

Habitat loss is often considered the greatest near-term threat to biodiversity. Yet the impact of habitat fragmentation, or the change in habitat configuration for a given amount of habitat loss, has been intensely debated. We isolated effects of habitat loss from fragmentation on the demography, movement, and abundance of wild populations of a specialist herbivore, Chelinidea vittiger, by removing 2,088 patches across 15 landscapes. We compared fragmentation resulting from random loss, which is often considered in theory, to aggregated loss, which is often observed in the real world. When quantifying fragmentation caused by random vs. aggregated loss, aggregated loss led to less fragmented landscapes than random loss based on patch isolation, but more fragmented landscapes when based on isolation at a larger mesoscale scale defined by dispersal distances of C. vittiger. Overall, habitat loss decreased population size and demographic parameters, with thresholds occurring at approximately 70-80% patch loss. Synergistic effects also occurred, where an aggregated pattern of loss had negative effects at low, but not high, amounts of habitat loss. Effects on population size of C. vittiger were driven by reductions in movement and subsequent reproduction. The direction of habitat fragmentation effects from random and aggregated loss treatments, for a given habitat amount, was conflictingly positive or negative depending on the scale at which fragmentation was quantified. Fragmentation quantified at the scale of dispersal for this species best explained population size and highlighted that fragmentation had negative effects at a mesoscale. Our results emphasize the importance of quantifying habitat fragmentation at biologically appropriate scales.

Extending the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model to presence/absence data: A case study on North American breeding birds and biogeographical shifts expected from climate change.

Understanding how species composition varies across space and time is fundamental to ecology. While multiple methods having been created to characterize this variation through the identification of groups of species that tend to co-occur, most of these methods unfortunately are not able to represent gradual variation in species composition. The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model is a mixed-membership method that can represent gradual changes in community structure by delineating overlapping groups of species, but its use has been limited because it requires abundance data and requires users to a priori set the number of groups. We substantially extend LDA to accommodate widely available presence/absence data and to simultaneously determine the optimal number of groups. Using simulated data, we show that this model is able to accurately determine the true number of groups, estimate the underlying parameters, and fit with the data. We illustrate this method with data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Overall, our model identified 18 main bird groups, revealing striking spatial patterns for each group, many of which were closely associated with temperature and precipitation gradients. Furthermore, by comparing the estimated proportion of each group for two time periods (1997-2002 and 2010-2015), our results indicate that nine (of 18) breeding bird groups exhibited an expansion northward and contraction southward of their ranges, revealing subtle but important community-level biodiversity changes at a continental scale that are consistent with those expected under climate change. Our proposed method is likely to find multiple uses in ecology, being a valuable addition to the toolkit of ecologists.

Reproductive modification in forest plantations: impacts on biodiversity and society.

1000 I. 1000 II. 1001 III. 1014 IV. 1015 V. 1016 1016 References 1016 SUMMARY: Genetic engineering (GE) can be used to improve forest plantation productivity and tolerance of biotic and abiotic stresses. However, gene flow from GE forest plantations is a large source of ecological, social and legal controversy. The use of genetic technologies to mitigate or prevent gene flow has been discussed widely and should be technically feasible in a variety of plantation taxa. However, potential ecological effects of such modifications, and their social acceptability, are not well understood. Focusing on Eucalyptus, Pinus, Populus and Pseudotsuga - genera that represent diverse modes of pollination and seed dispersal - we conducted in-depth reviews of ecological processes associated with reproductive tissues. We also explored potential impacts of various forms of reproductive modification at stand and landscape levels, and means for mitigating impacts. We found little research on potential reactions by the public and other stakeholders to reproductive modification in forest plantations. However, there is considerable research on related areas that suggest key dimensions of concern and support. We provide detailed suggestions for research to understand the biological and social dimensions of containment technologies, and consider the role of regulatory and market restrictions that obstruct necessary ecological and genetic research.

Detecting population-environmental interactions with mismatched time series data.

Time series analysis is an essential method for decomposing the influences of density and exogenous factors such as weather and climate on population regulation. However, there has been little work focused on understanding how well commonly collected data can reconstruct the effects of environmental factors on population dynamics. We show that, analogous to similar scale issues in spatial data analysis, coarsely sampled temporal data can fail to detect covariate effects when interactions occur on timescales that are fast relative to the survey period. We propose a method for modeling mismatched time series data that couples high-resolution environmental data to low-resolution abundance data. We illustrate our approach with simulations and by applying it to Florida's southern Snail kite population. Our simulation results show that our method can reliably detect linear environmental effects and that detecting nonlinear effects requires high-resolution covariate data even when the population turnover rate is slow. In the Snail kite analysis, our approach performed among the best in a suite of previously used environmental covariates explaining Snail kite dynamics and was able to detect a potential phenological shift in the environmental dependence of Snail kites. Our work provides a statistical framework for reliably detecting population-environment interactions from coarsely surveyed time series. An important implication of this work is that the low predictability of animal population growth by weather variables found in previous studies may be due, in part, to how these data are utilized as covariates.

The causes of dispersal and the cost of carry-over effects for an endangered bird in a dynamic wetland landscape.

The decision to disperse or remain philopatric between breeding seasons has important implications for both ecology and evolution, including the potential for carry-over effects, where an individual's previous history affects its current performance. Carry-over effects are increasingly documented although underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we test for potential carry-over effects and their mechanisms by uniting hypotheses for the causes and consequences of habitat selection and dispersal across space and time. We linked hypotheses regarding different types of factors and information (environmental conditions, personal and public information) predicted to impact reproductive success and dispersal for an endangered, wetland-dependent bird, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). To do so, we coupled structural equation modelling with 20 years of mark-recapture and nesting data across the breeding range of this species to isolate potential direct and indirect effects of these factors. We found that water depth at nest sites explained subsequent emigration rates via an indirect path through the use of personal, not public, information. Importantly, we found that these dispersers tended to initiate nests later the following breeding season. This pattern explained a phenological mismatch of nesting with hydrological conditions, whereby immigrants tended to nest later, late nesters tended to experience lower water depths, higher nest failure occurred at lower water depths and higher nest failure explained subsequent breeding dispersal. These results identified a novel potential mechanism for carry-over effects: a phenological mismatch with environmental conditions (water depth) that occurred potentially due to time costs of dispersal. Our results also highlighted a substantial benefit of philopatry - earlier initiation of reproduction - which allows philopatric individuals to better coincide with environmental conditions that are beneficial for successful reproduction. These results have implications for our mechanistic understanding and prediction of carryover effects, and emphasize that local conservation strategies, such as water management, can explain future demography at distant sites connected through dispersal.

Counteracting effects of a non-native prey on the demography of a native predator culminate in positive population growth.

Identifying impacts of non-native species on native populations is central to conservation and ecology. While effects of non-native predators on native prey populations have recently received much attention, impacts of introduced prey on native predator populations are less understood. Non-native prey can influence predator behavior and demography through direct and indirect pathways, yet quantitative assessments of the relative impacts of multiple, potentially counteracting, effects on native predator population growth remain scarce. Using ≈20 years of range-wide monitoring data, we tested for effects of a recently introduced, rapidly spreading non-native prey species (Pomacea maculata) on the behavior and demography of the endangered Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis). Previous studies found that food-handling difficulties caused by the large size of P. maculata (relative to the native P. paludosa) can lead to energetic deficiencies in juvenile kites, suggesting the potential for evolutionary traps to occur. However, high densities of P. maculata populations could facilitate kites by providing supplemental food resources. Contrary to prior hypotheses, we found that juvenile apparent survival increased ≈50% in wetlands invaded by non-native snails. Breeding rates and number of young fledged/successful nests were also positively associated with non-native snail presence, suggesting direct trophic benefits to kites. We found no direct effects of the invasive snail on adult survival or daily nest survival rates. Kite movements and breeding distribution closely tracked the spread of non-native snail populations. Since 2005, kites have been heavily concentrated in northern regions where non-native snails have established. This geographic shift has had hidden costs, as use of northern regions is associated with lower adult survival. Despite negative impacts to this key vital rate, matrix population modeling indicated that the multifarious effects of the non-native snail invasion on kites culminated in increased population growth rates, likely lowering short-term extinction risks. Results suggest that considering only particular components of behavior or demography may be inadequate to infer the population-dynamic importance of non-native prey on native predators, including their role in creating potential evolutionary traps. Our findings provide information pertinent to Everglades restoration, highlighting potential management trade-offs for non-native species that may aid imperiled species recovery yet disrupt other native communities.

Consistent scaling of population structure across landscapes despite intraspecific variation in movement and connectivity.

Understanding the spatial scale of population structure is fundamental to long-standing tenets of population biology, landscape ecology and conservation. Nonetheless, identifying such scales has been challenging because a key factor that influences scaling - movement among patches or local populations - is a multicausal process with substantial phenotypic and temporal variation. We resolve this problem via a novel application of network modularity. When applied to movements, modularity provides a formal description of the functional aggregation of populations and identifies potentially critical scales for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We first test for modularity using several different types of biologically relevant movements across the entire geographic range of an endangered bird, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). We then ask whether variation in movement based on (i) age, (ii) sex and (iii) time (annual, seasonal and within-season movements) influences spatial population structure (i.e. modularity) in snail kites. We identified significant modularity in annual dispersal of snail kites (all adults, males only, females only, and juveniles only) and in within-breeding season movements of adults, yet no evidence of modularity in seasonal (non-breeding) movements. For those movements with observed modular structure, we found striking similarities in the spatial configuration of population structure, even though movement properties varied considerably among these different types of movements. Our results suggest that the emergence of modularity in population networks can be robust despite movement heterogeneity and differences in patch-based measures of connectivity. Furthermore, our comparison of the population structure and connectivity across multiple movement phases helps to identify wetland patches most critical to population connectivity at multiple spatiotemporal scales. We argue that understanding modularity in populations may provide a robust complement to existing measures of population structure and connectivity and will help to clarify the limiting roles of movement for populations. Such information is increasingly needed for interpreting population persistence and guiding effective conservation strategies with ongoing environmental change.