Adequate versus deep response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: To what extent and under what conditions is normal alkaline phosphatase level associated with complication-free survival gain?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Normal alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels in ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)-treated patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are associated with better long-term outcome. However, second-line therapies are currently recommended only when ALP levels remain above 1.5 times the upper limit of normal (×ULN) after 12-month UDCA. We assessed whether, in patients considered good responders to UDCA, normal ALP levels were associated with significant survival gains. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1047 patients with PBC who attained an adequate response to UDCA according to Paris-2 criteria. Time to liver-related complications, liver transplantation, or death was assessed using adjusted restricted mean survival time (RMST) analysis. The overall incidence rate of events was 17.0 (95% CI: 13.7-21.1) per 1000 out of 4763.2 patient-years. On the whole population, normal serum ALP values (but not normal gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), or aspartate aminotransferase (AST); or total bilirubin < 0.6 ×ULN) were associated with a significant absolute complication-free survival gain at 10 years (mean 7.6 months, 95% CI: 2.7 - 12.6 mo.; p = 0.003). In subgroup analysis, this association was significant in patients with a liver stiffness measurement ≥ 10 kPa and/or age ≤ 62 years, with a 10-year absolute complication-free survival gain of 52.8 months (95% CI: 45.7-59.9, p < 0.001) when these 2 conditions were met. CONCLUSIONS: PBC patients with an adequate response to UDCA and persistent ALP elevation between 1.1 and 1.5 ×ULN, particularly those with advanced fibrosis and/or who are sufficiently young, remain at risk of poor outcome. Further therapeutic efforts should be considered for these patients.

Prognostic scores for ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients predict graft loss and mortality in recurrent primary biliary cholangitis after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recurrent primary biliary cholangitis (rPBC) develops in approximately 30% of patients and negatively impacts graft and overall patient survival after liver transplantation (LT). There is a lack of data regarding the response rate to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in rPBC. We evaluated a large, international, multi-center cohort to assess the performance of PBC scores in predicting the risk of graft and overall survival after LT in patients with rPBC. METHODS: A total of 332 patients with rPBC after LT were evaluated from 28 centers across Europe, North and South America. The median age at the time of rPBC was 58.0 years [IQR 53.2-62.6], and 298 patients (90%) were female. The biochemical response was measured with serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and bilirubin, and Paris-2, GLOBE and UK-PBC scores at 1 year after UDCA initiation. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.7 years [IQR 4.3-12.9] after rPBC diagnosis, 52 patients (16%) had graft loss and 103 (31%) died. After 1 year of UDCA initiation the histological stage at rPBC (hazard ratio [HR] 3.97, 95% CI 1.36-11.55, p = 0.01), use of prednisone (HR 3.18, 95% CI 1.04-9.73, p = 0.04), ALP xULN (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.26-2.01, p <0.001), Paris-2 criteria (HR 4.14, 95% CI 1.57-10.92, p = 0.004), GLOBE score (HR 2.82, 95% CI 1.71-4.66, p <0.001), and the UK-PBC score (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.09, p <0.001) were associated with graft survival in the multivariate analysis. Similar results were observed for overall survival. CONCLUSION: Patients with rPBC and disease activity, as indicated by standard PBC risk scores, have impaired outcomes, supporting efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant PBC. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: One in three people who undergo liver transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis develop recurrent disease in their new liver. Patients with recurrent primary biliary cholangitis and incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid, according to conventional prognostic scores, have worse clinical outcomes, with higher risk of graft loss and mortality in similar ways to the disease before liver transplantation. Our results supportsupport efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant primary biliary cholangitis.

Dynamics of Liver Stiffness Measurement and Clinical Course of Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), static liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has proven prognostic value. However, the added prognostic value of LSM time course in this disease remains uncertain. METHODS: We conducted an international retrospective cohort study among patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid and followed by vibration-controlled transient elastography between 2003 and 2022. Using joint modeling, the association of LSM trajectory and the incidence of serious clinical events (SCE), defined as cirrhosis complications, liver transplantation, or death, was quantified using the hazard ratio and its confidence interval. RESULTS: A total of 6362 LSMs were performed in 3078 patients (2007 on ursodeoxycholic acid alone; 13% with cirrhosis), in whom 316 SCE occurred over 14,445 person-years (median follow-up, 4.2 years; incidence rate, 21.9 per 1000 person-years). LSM progressed in 59% of patients (mean, 0.39 kPa/year). After adjusting for prognostic factors at baseline, including LSM, any relative change in LSM was associated with a significant variation in SCE risk (P < .001). For example, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) associated with a 20% annual variation in LSM were 2.13 (1.89-2.45) for the increase and 0.40 (0.33-0.46) for the decrease. The association between LSM trajectory and SCE risk persisted regardless of treatment response or duration, when patients with cirrhosis were excluded, and when only death or liver transplantation was considered. CONCLUSIONS: Tracking longitudinal changes in LSM using vibration-controlled transient elastography provides valuable insights into PBC prognosis, offering a robust predictive measure for the risk of SCE. LSM could be used as a clinically relevant surrogate end point in PBC clinical trials.

Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict Response to Obeticholic Acid in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obeticholic acid (OCA) is the only licensed second-line therapy for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). With novel therapeutics in advanced development, clinical tools are needed to tailor the treatment algorithm. We aimed to derive and externally validate the OCA response score (ORS) for predicting the response probability of individuals with PBC to OCA. METHODS: We used data from the Italian RECAPITULATE (N = 441) and the IBER-PBC (N = 244) OCA real-world prospective cohorts to derive/validate a score including widely available variables obtained either pre-treatment (ORS) or also after 6 months of treatment (ORS+). Multivariable Cox regressions with backward selection were applied to obtain parsimonious predictive models. The predicted outcomes were biochemical response according to POISE (alkaline phosphatase [ALP]/upper limit of normal [ULN]<1.67 with a reduction of at least 15%, and normal bilirubin), or ALP/ULN<1.67, or normal range criteria (NR: normal ALP, alanine aminotransferase [ALT], and bilirubin) up to 24 months. RESULTS: Depending on the response criteria, ORS included age, pruritus, cirrhosis, ALP/ULN, ALT/ULN, GGT/ULN, and bilirubin. ORS+ also included ALP/ULN and bilirubin after 6 months of OCA therapy. Internally validated c-statistics for ORS were 0.75, 0.78, and 0.72 for POISE, ALP/ULN<1.67, and NR response, which raised to 0.83, 0.88, and 0.81 with ORS+, respectively. The respective performances in validation were 0.70, 0.72, and 0.71 for ORS and 0.80, 0.84, and 0.78 for ORS+. Results were consistent across groups with mild/severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated a scoring system capable to predict OCA response according to different criteria. This tool will enhance a stratified second-line therapy model to streamline standard care and trial delivery in PBC.

Current Perspectives on the Molecular and Clinical Relationships between Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is an autoimmune liver disease characterised by the immune-mediated destruction of small and medium intrahepatic bile ducts, with variable outcomes and progression. This review summarises the state of the art regarding the risk of neoplastic progression in PBC patients, with a particular focus on the molecular alterations present in PBC and in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which is the most frequent liver cancer in these patients. Major risk factors are male gender, viral infections, e.g., HBV and HCV, non-response to UDCA, and high alcohol intake, as well as some metabolic-associated factors. Overall, HCC development is significantly more frequent in patients with advanced histological stages, being related to liver cirrhosis. It seems to be of fundamental importance to unravel eventual dysfunctional molecular pathways in PBC patients that may be used as biomarkers for HCC development. In the near future, this will possibly take advantage of artificial intelligence-designed algorithms.

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment-Induced GLOBE Score Changes Are Associated With Liver Transplantation-Free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) can improve the GLOBE score. We aimed to assess the association between changes in the GLOBE score (ΔGLOBE) and liver transplantation (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC who were treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). METHODS: Among UDCA-treated patients within the Global PBC cohort, the association between ΔGLOBE (ΔGLOBE 0-1 : during the first year of UDCA, ΔGLOBE 1-2 : during the second year) and the risk of LT or death was assessed through Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 3,775 UDCA-treated patients were included; 3,424 (90.7%) were female, the median age was 54.0 (interquartile range [IQR] 45.9-62.4) years, and the median baseline GLOBE score was 0.25 (IQR -0.47 to 0.96). During a median follow-up of 7.2 (IQR 3.7-11.5) years, 730 patients reached the combined end point of LT or death. The median ΔGLOBE 0-1 was -0.27 (IQR -0.56 to 0.02). Cox regression analyses, adjusted for pretreatment GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-12 , showed that ΔGLOBE was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.81-2.87, P < 0.001). The interaction between baseline GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-1 was not statistically significant ( P = 0.296). The ΔGLOBE 1-2 was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval 1.67-2.86, P < 0.001), independently from the baseline GLOBE score and the change in GLOBE score during the first year of UDCA. DISCUSSION: UDCA-induced changes in the GLOBE score were significantly associated with LT-free survival in patients with PBC. While the relative risk reduction of LT or death was stable, the absolute risk reduction was heavily dependent on the baseline prognosis of the patient.

Optimizing therapy in primary biliary cholangitis: Alkaline phosphatase at six months identifies one-year non-responders and predicts survival.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and insufficient response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), currently assessed after 1 year, are candidates for second-line therapy. The aims of this study are to assess biochemical response pattern and determine the utility of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) at six months as a predictor of insufficient response. METHODS: UDCA-treated patients in the GLOBAL PBC database with available liver biochemistries at one year were included. POISE criteria were used to assess response to treatment, defined as ALP <1.67 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and normal total bilirubin at one year. Various thresholds of ALP at six months were evaluated to predict insufficient response based on negative predictive value (NPV) and that with nearest to 90% NPV was selected. RESULTS: For the study, 1362 patients were included, 1232 (90.5%) female, mean age of 54 years. The POISE criteria were met by 56.4% (n = 768) of patients at one year. The median ALP (IQR) of those who met POISE criteria compared to those who did not was 1.05 × ULN (0.82-1.33) vs. 2.37 × ULN (1.72-3.69) at six months (p < .001). Of 235 patients with serum ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months, 89% did not achieve POISE criteria (NPV) after one year of UDCA. Of those with insufficient response by POISE criteria at one year, 210 (67%) had an ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months and thus would have been identified early. CONCLUSIONS: We can identify patients for second-line therapy at six months using an ALP threshold of 1.9 × ULN, given that approximately 90% of these patients are non-responders according to POISE criteria.

Impact on follow-up strategies in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Evidence for the benefit of scheduled imaging for early detection of hepatobiliary malignancies in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is limited. We aimed to compare different follow-up strategies in PSC with the hypothesis that regular imaging improves survival. METHODS: We collected retrospective data from 2975 PSC patients from 27 centres. Patients were followed from the start of scheduled imaging or in case of clinical follow-up from 1 January 2000, until death or last clinical follow-up alive. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A broad variety of different follow-up strategies were reported. All except one centre used regular imaging, ultrasound (US) and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Two centres used scheduled endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in addition to imaging for surveillance purposes. The overall HR (CI95%) for death, adjusted for sex, age and start year of follow-up, was 0.61 (0.47-0.80) for scheduled imaging with and without ERCP; 0.64 (0.48-0.86) for US/MRI and 0.53 (0.37-0.75) for follow-up strategies including scheduled ERCP. The lower risk of death remained for scheduled imaging with and without ERCP after adjustment for cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) or high-grade dysplasia as a time-dependent covariate, HR 0.57 (0.44-0.75). Hepatobiliary malignancy was diagnosed in 175 (5.9%) of the patients at 7.9 years of follow-up. Asymptomatic patients (25%) with CCA had better survival if scheduled imaging had been performed. CONCLUSIONS: Follow-up strategies vary considerably across centres. Scheduled imaging was associated with improved survival. Multiple factors may contribute to this result including early tumour detection and increased endoscopic treatment of asymptomatic benign biliary strictures.

Accuracy of Transient Elastography in Assessing Fibrosis at Diagnosis in Naïve Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis: A Dual Cut-Off Approach.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Liver fibrosis holds a relevant prognostic meaning in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Noninvasive fibrosis evaluation using vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is routinely performed. However, there is limited evidence on its accuracy at diagnosis in PBC. We aimed to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of VCTE in assessing advanced fibrosis (AF) at disease presentation in PBC. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We collected data from 167 consecutive treatment-naïve PBC patients who underwent liver biopsy (LB) at diagnosis at six Italian centers. VCTE examinations were completed within 12 weeks of LB. Biopsies were scored by two blinded expert pathologists, according to the Ludwig system. Diagnostic accuracy was estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for AF (Ludwig stage ≥III). Effects of biochemical and clinical parameters on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were appraised. The derivation cohort consisted of 126 patients with valid LSM and LB; VCTE identified patients with AF with an AUROC of 0.89. LSM cutoffs ≤6.5 and >11.0 kPa enabled to exclude and confirm, respectively, AF (negative predictive value [NPV] = 0.94; positive predictive value [PPV] = 0.89; error rate = 5.6%). These values were externally validated in an independent cohort of 91 PBC patients (NPV = 0.93; PPV = 0.89; error rate = 8.6%). Multivariable analysis found that the only parameter affecting LSM was fibrosis stage. No association was found with BMI and liver biochemistry. CONCLUSIONS: In a multicenter study of treatment-naïve PBC patients, we identified two cutoffs (LSM ≤6.5 and >11.0 kPa) able to discriminate at diagnosis the absence or presence, respectively, of AF in PBC patients, with external validation. In patients with LSM between these two cutoffs, VCTE is not reliable and liver biopsy should be evaluated for accurate disease staging. BMI and liver biochemistry did not affect LSMs.

Machine learning in primary biliary cholangitis: A novel approach for risk stratification.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Machine learning (ML) provides new approaches for prognostication through the identification of novel subgroups of patients. We explored whether ML could support disease sub-phenotyping and risk stratification in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). METHODS: ML was applied to an international dataset of PBC patients. The dataset was split into a derivation cohort (training set) and a validation cohort (validation set), and key clinical features were analysed. The outcome was a composite of liver-related death or liver transplantation. ML and standard survival analysis were performed. RESULTS: The training set was composed of 11,819 subjects, while the validation set was composed of 1,069 subjects. ML identified four clusters of patients characterized by different phenotypes and long-term prognosis. Cluster 1 (n = 3566) included patients with excellent prognosis, whereas Cluster 2 (n = 3966) consisted of individuals at worse prognosis differing from Cluster 1 only for albumin levels around the limit of normal. Cluster 3 (n = 2379) included young patients with florid cholestasis and Cluster 4 (n = 1908) comprised advanced cases. Further sub-analyses on the dynamics of albumin within the normal range revealed that ursodeoxycholic acid-induced increase of albumin >1.2 x lower limit of normal (LLN) is associated with improved transplant-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Unsupervised ML identified four novel groups of PBC patients with different phenotypes and prognosis and highlighted subtle variations of albumin within the normal range. Therapy-induced increase of albumin >1.2 x LLN should be considered a treatment goal.

Predictors of serious adverse events and non-response in cirrhotic patients with primary biliary cholangitis treated with obeticholic acid.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obeticholic acid (OCA) has recently been restricted in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) with "advanced cirrhosis" because of its narrow therapeutic index. We aimed to better define the predicting factors of hepatic serious adverse events (SAEs) and non-response in cirrhotic patients undergoing OCA therapy. METHODS: Safety and efficacy of treatment were evaluated in a cohort of consecutive PBC cirrhotic patients started with OCA. OCA response was evaluated according to the Poise criteria. Risk factors for hepatic SAEs and non-response were reported as risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: One hundred PBC cirrhotics were included, 97 Child-Pugh class A and 3 class B. Thirty-one had oesophageal varices and 5 had a history of ascites. Thirty-three per cent and 32% of patients achieved a biochemical response at 6 and 12 months respectively. Male sex (adjusted-RR 1.75, 95%CI 1.42-2.12), INR (1.37, 1.00-1.87), Child-Pugh score (1.79, 1.28-2.50), MELD (1.17, 1.04-1.30) and bilirubin (1.83, 1.11-3.01) were independently associated with non-response to OCA. Twenty-two patients discontinued OCA within 12 months: 10 for pruritus, 9 for hepatic SAEs (5 for jaundice and/or ascitic decompensation; 4 for upper digestive bleeding). INR (adjusted-RR 1.91, 95%CI 1.10-3.36), lower albumin levels (0.18, 0.06-0.51), Child-Pugh score (2.43, 1.50-4.04), history of ascites (3.5, 1.85-6.5) and bilirubin (1.30, 1.05-1.56), were associated with hepatic SAEs. A total bilirubin≥1.4 mg/dl at baseline was the most accurate biochemical predictor of hepatic SAEs under OCA. CONCLUSIONS: An accurate baseline assessment is crucial to select cirrhotic patients who can benefit from OCA. Although OCA is effective in one third of cirrhotics, bilirubin level ≥1.4 mg/dl should discourage from its use.

Measurement of Gamma Glutamyl Transferase to Determine Risk of Liver Transplantation or Death in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is a serum marker of cholestasis. We investigated whether serum level of GGT is a prognostic marker for patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). METHODS: We analyzed data from patients with PBC from the Global PBC Study Group, comprising 14 centers in Europe and North America. We obtained measurements of serum GGT at baseline and time points after treatment. We used Cox model hazard ratios to evaluate the association between GGT and clinical outcomes, including liver transplantation and liver-related death. RESULTS: Of the 2129 patients included in our analysis, 281 (13%) had a liver-related clinical endpoint. Mean age at diagnosis was 53 years and 91% of patients were female patients. We found a correlation between serum levels of GGT and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (r = 0.71). Based on data collected at baseline and yearly for up to 5 years, higher serum levels of GGT were associated with lower hazard for transplant-free survival. Serum level of GGT at 12 months after treatment higher than 3.2-fold the upper limit of normal (ULN) identified patients who required liver transplantation or with liver-related death at 10 years with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.70. The risk of liver transplantation or liver-related death in patients with serum level of GGT above 3.2-fold the ULN, despite level of ALP lower than 1.5-fold the ULN, was higher compared to patients with level of GGT lower than 3.2-fold the ULN and level of ALP lower than 1.5-fold the ULN (P < .05). Including information on level of GGT increased the prognostic value of the Globe score. CONCLUSIONS: Serum level of GGT can be used to identify patients with PBC at risk for liver transplantation or death, and increase the prognostic value of ALP measurement. Our findings support the use of GGT as primary clinical endpoint in clinical trials. In patients with low serum level of ALP, a high level of GGT identifies those who might require treatment of metabolic disorders or PBC treatment escalation.

A Comparison of Prognostic Scores (Mayo, UK-PBC, and GLOBE) in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative data on scores that predict outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are scarce. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic value of the Mayo Risk Score (MRS, 1989 and 1994), UK-PBC score, and GLOBE score in a large international cohort of patients with PBC. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from 7 centers participating in the GLOBAL PBC Study Group were included. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Model for End-stage Liver Disease was included for comparison. Prediction accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted survival and actual survival in Kaplan-Meier analyses. RESULTS: A total of 1,100 ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC were included, with a mean (SD) age of 53.6 (12.0) years, of whom 1,003 (91%) were female. During a median follow-up of 7.6 (interquartile range 4.1-11.7) years, 42 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 127 patients died. At 1 year, the concordance statistic for Model for End-stage Liver Disease was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.72), 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) for the UK-PBC score, 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.81) for the MRS (1989 and 1994), and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) for the GLOBE score. The GLOBE score showed superior discriminatory performance, but differences were not statistically different. For all scores, discriminatory performance increased in those with bilirubin >0.6 × ULN and advanced fibrosis estimated with Fibrosis-4. The predicted (median) minus observed 5-year transplant-free survival was +0.4% and +2.5% for the MRS (1989) and GLOBE score, respectively. DISCUSSION: All prognostic scores developed for PBC (GLOBE, UK-PBC, and MRS) demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for liver transplantation or death as well as good prediction accuracy.

Primary biliary cholangitis: treatment.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To discuss the most recent data regarding treatment of patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) with inadequate response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). RECENT FINDINGS: Patients with PBC at high-risk of progressive disease are younger, have advanced fibrosis and showed inadequate response to UDCA after 12 months of treatment. These patients need a second-line treatment in addition to UDCA. The goal of therapy should be the normalization of ALP and bilirubin below 0.6 the upper limit of normal. Obeticholic acid (OCA) has proven to be effective in improving surrogate markers of prognosis in PBC, also in real-life cohort. Pruritus is the most frequent adverse event during treatment with OCA. Bezafibrate is another option in patients with inadequate response to UDCA as it was proven to improve surrogate endpoints, pruritus and even, clinical outcome compared with UDCA monotherapy. Finally, budesonide may be considered in patients with marked portal inflammation. Triple therapy with UDCA, OCA and bezafibrate may be considered in patients showing inadequate response to dual therapy. SUMMARY: Patients with PBC need to be evaluated at baseline, and on-treatment, for the risk of progressive disease and eventually treated with second-line therapies in addition to UDCA.

Clinical impact of sexual dimorphism in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).

NAFLD/NASH is a sex-dimorphic disease, with a general higher prevalence in men. Women are at reduced risk of NAFLD compared to men in fertile age, whereas after menopause women have a comparable prevalence of NAFLD as men. Indeed, sexual category, sex hormones and gender habits interact with numerous NAFLD factors including cytokines, stress and environmental factors and alter the risk profiles and phenotypes of NAFLD. In the present review, we summarized the last findings about the influence of sex on epidemiology, pathogenesis, progression in cirrhosis, indication for liver transplantation and alternative therapies, including lifestyle modification and pharmacological strategies. We are confident that an appropriate consideration of sex, age, hormonal status and sociocultural gender differences will lead to a better understanding of sex differences in NAFLD risk, therapeutic targets and treatment responses and will aid in achieving sex-specific personalized therapies.

Number needed to treat with ursodeoxycholic acid therapy to prevent liver transplantation or death in primary biliary cholangitis.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC. METHODS: The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database. RESULTS: We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT5y) was 11 (95% CI 9 to 13). Although the HR of UDCA was similar for patients with and without cirrhosis (0.33 vs 0.31), the NNT5y was 4 (95% CI 3 to 5) and 20 (95% CI 14 to 34), respectively. Among patients with low alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≤2× the upper limit of normal (ULN)), intermediate ALP (2-4× ULN) and high ALP (>4× ULN), the NNT5y to prevent one LT or death was 26 (95% CI 15 to 70), 11 (95% CI 8 to 17) and 5 (95% CI 4 to 8), respectively. CONCLUSION: The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance.

A randomized, placebo-controlled, phase II study of obeticholic acid for primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a rare, cholestatic liver disease with no currently approved therapies. Obeticholic acid (OCA) is a potent farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonist approved for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis. We investigated the efficacy and safety of OCA in patients with PSC. METHODS: AESOP was a phase II, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-finding study. Eligible patients were 18 to 75 years of age with a diagnosis of PSC and serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) ≥2× the upper limit of normal (ULN) and total bilirubin <2.5× ULN. Patients were randomized 1:1:1 to receive placebo, OCA 1.5-3.0 mg, or OCA 5-10 mg once daily for a 24-week, double-blind phase followed by a 2-year, long-term safety extension (LTSE). Primary endpoints were change in ALP from baseline to week 24, and safety. RESULTS: The intent-to-treat population comprised 76 patients randomized to placebo (n = 25), OCA 1.5-3.0 mg (n = 25), and OCA 5-10 mg (n = 26). At week 24, serum ALP was significantly reduced with OCA 5-10 mg vs. placebo (least-square [LS] mean difference = -83.4 [SE = 40.3] U/L; 95% CI -164.28 to -2.57; p = 0.043). Serum ALP was not significantly reduced with OCA 1.5-3.0 mg vs. placebo at week 24 (LS mean [SE] difference = -78.29 [41.81] U/L; 95% CI -162.08 to 5.50; p = 0.067). Total bilirubin remained comparable to baseline in all groups. The most common treatment-emergent adverse event was dose-related pruritus (placebo 46%; OCA 1.5-3.0 mg 60%; OCA 5-10 mg 67%). Reductions in ALP were maintained during the LTSE, and no new safety signals emerged. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with OCA 5-10 mg reduced serum ALP in patients with PSC. Mild to moderate dose-related pruritus was the most common adverse event. REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02177136; EudraCT: 2014-002205-38. LAY SUMMARY: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a long-term disease that damages the bile ducts in the liver over time. In the AESOP clinical study in patients with PSC, obeticholic acid reduced serum alkaline phosphatase (a potential marker of disease severity) during an initial 24-week treatment period. The result was sustained during the 2-year, long-term extension of the study. The most common side effect of obeticholic acid in the study was itchy skin, which is consistent with earlier clinical studies.

Long-term impact of preventive UDCA therapy after transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recurrence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) after liver transplantation (LT) is frequent and can impair graft and patient survival. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is the current standard therapy for PBC. We investigated the effect of preventive exposure to UDCA on the incidence and long-term consequences of PBC recurrence after LT. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in 780 patients transplanted for PBC, between 1983-2017 in 16 centers (9 countries), and followed-up for a median of 11 years. Among them, 190 received preventive UDCA (10-15 mg/kg/day). The primary outcome was histological evidence of PBC recurrence. The secondary outcomes were graft loss, liver-related death, and all-cause death. The association between preventive UDCA and outcomes was quantified using multivariable-adjusted Cox and restricted mean survival time (RMST) models. RESULTS: While recurrence of PBC significantly shortened graft and patient survival, preventive exposure to UDCA was associated with reduced risk of PBC recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.41; 95% CI 0.28-0.61; p <0.0001), graft loss (aHR 0.33; 95% CI 0.13-0.82; p <0.05), liver-related death (aHR 0.46; 95% CI 0.22-0.98; p <0.05), and all-cause death (aHR 0.69; 95% CI 0.49-0.96; p <0.05). On RMST analysis, preventive UDCA led to a survival gain of 2.26 years (95% CI 1.28-3.25) over a period of 20 years. Exposure to cyclosporine rather than tacrolimus had a complementary protective effect alongside preventive UDCA, reducing the cumulative incidence of PBC recurrence and all-cause death. CONCLUSIONS: Preventive UDCA after LT for PBC is associated with a reduced risk of disease recurrence, graft loss, and death. A regimen combining cyclosporine and preventive UDCA is associated with the lowest risk of PBC recurrence and mortality. LAY SUMMARY: Recurrence of primary biliary cholangitis after liver transplantation is frequent and can impair graft and patient survival. We performed the largest international study of transplanted patients with primary biliary cholangitis to date. Preventive administration of ursodeoxycholic acid after liver transplantation was associated with reduced risk of disease recurrence, graft loss, liver-related and all-cause mortality. A regimen combining cyclosporine and preventive ursodeoxycholic acid was associated with the best outcomes.

Factors Associated With Recurrence of Primary Biliary Cholangitis After Liver Transplantation and Effects on Graft and Patient Survival.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) frequently recurs after liver transplantation. We evaluated risk factors associated with recurrence of PBC and its effects on patient and graft survival in a multicenter, international cohort (the Global PBC Study Group). METHODS: We collected demographic and clinical data from 785 patients (89% female) with PBC who underwent liver transplantation (mean age, 54 ± 9 years) from February 1983 through June 2016, among 13 centers in North America and Europe. Results from biochemical tests performed within 12 months of liver transplantation were analyzed to determine whether markers of cholestasis could identify patients with recurrence of PBC (based on histologic analysis). Patients were followed for a median 6.9 years (interquartile range, 6.1-7.9 years). RESULTS: PBC recurred in 22% of patients after 5 years and 36% after 10 years. Age at diagnosis <50 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.79; 95% CI, 1.36-2.36; P < .001), age at liver transplantation <60 years (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.90; P = .04), use of tacrolimus (HR, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.72-3.10; P < .001), and biochemical markers of severe cholestasis (bilirubin ≥100 µmol or alkaline phosphatase >3-fold the upper limit of normal) at 6 months after liver transplantation (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.16-2.76; P = .008) were associated with higher risk of PBC recurrence, whereas use of cyclosporine reduced risk of PBC recurrence (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.46-0.82; P = .001). In multivariable Cox regression with time-dependent covariate, recurrence of PBC significantly associated with graft loss (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.16-3.51; P = .01) and death (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.11-2.65; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: Younger age at the time of diagnosis with PBC or at liver transplantation, tacrolimus use, and biochemical markers of cholestasis after liver transplantation are associated with PBC recurrence. PBC recurrence reduces odds of graft and patient survival. Strategies are needed to prevent PBC recurrence or reduce its negative effects.