Linking the Environmental Pressures of China's Capital Development to Global Final Consumption of the Past Decades and into the Future.

China's rapid growth was fueled by investments that grew more than 10-fold since 1995. Little is known about how the capital assets acquired, while being used in productive processes for years or decades, satisfy global final consumption of goods and services, or how the resource use and emissions that occurred during capital formation are attributable to past or future consumption. Here, enabled by a new global model of capital formation and use, we quantify the linkages over the past 2 decades and into the future between six environmental pressures (EPs) associated with China's capital formation and attributable to Chinese as well as non-Chinese consumption. We show that only 35% of the capital assets acquired by China from 1995 to 2015, representing 32-39% of the associated EPs (e.g., water consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and metal ore extractions), have been depreciated, while the majority rest will serve future production and consumption. The outsourcing of capital services and the associated EPs are considerable, ranging from 14 to 25% of depending on the EP indicators. Without accounting for the capital-final consumption linkages across time and space, one would miscalculate China's environmental footprints related to the six EPs by big margins, from -61% to +114%.

Pandemics and the Environmental Rebound Effect: Reflections from COVID-19.

The irruption of the COVID-19 pandemic has raised concerns on sustainability issues. The pandemic has accelerated the implementation of technologies such as ICT and shifts in mobility behaviour. Such changes have the potential to reduce environmental burdens, but also to trigger large environmental rebound effects. This perspective article reflects on some emerging concerns on the socio-economic effects of a pandemic on the environment from a rebound effect perspective. Although the pandemic offers potential to improve the environmental conditions, it brings also a high risk to produce Jevons' Paradox, i.e., increase environmental burdens rather than decrease them, as initially expected. Governments should be aware of these risks and assess the possibility to implement additional measures, like environmental taxation or limiting the use of resources, to help achieving sustainability targets.

Quantified Uncertainties in Comparative Life Cycle Assessment: What Can Be Concluded?

Interpretation of comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results can be challenging in the presence of uncertainty. To aid in interpreting such results under the goal of any comparative LCA, we aim to provide guidance to practitioners by gaining insights into uncertainty-statistics methods (USMs). We review five USMs-discernibility analysis, impact category relevance, overlap area of probability distributions, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), and modified NHST-and provide a common notation, terminology, and calculation platform. We further cross-compare all USMs by applying them to a case study on electric cars. USMs belong to a confirmatory or an exploratory statistics' branch, each serving different purposes to practitioners. Results highlight that common uncertainties and the magnitude of differences per impact are key in offering reliable insights. Common uncertainties are particularly important as disregarding them can lead to incorrect recommendations. On the basis of these considerations, we recommend the modified NHST as a confirmatory USM. We also recommend discernibility analysis as an exploratory USM along with recommendations for its improvement, as it disregards the magnitude of the differences. While further research is necessary to support our conclusions, the results and supporting material provided can help LCA practitioners in delivering a more robust basis for decision-making.

Freshwater Vulnerability beyond Local Water Stress: Heterogeneous Effects of Water-Electricity Nexus Across the Continental United States.

Human health and economic prosperity are vulnerable to freshwater shortage in many parts of the world. Despite a growing literature that examines the freshwater vulnerability in various spatiotemporal contexts, existing knowledge has been conventionally constrained by a territorial perspective. On the basis of spatial analyses of monthly water and electricity flows across 2110 watersheds and three interconnected power systems, this study investigates the water-electricity nexus (WEN)'s transboundary effects on freshwater vulnerability in the continental United States in 2014. The effects are shown to be considerable and heterogeneous across time and space. For at least one month a year, 58 million people living in water-abundant watersheds were exposed to additional freshwater vulnerability by relying on electricity generated by freshwater-cooled thermal energy conversion cycles in highly stressed watersheds; for 72 million people living in highly stressed watersheds, their freshwater vulnerability was mitigated by using imported electricity generated in water-abundant watersheds or power plants running dry cooling or using nonfreshwater for cooling purposes. On the country scale, the mitigation effects were the most significant during September and October, while the additional freshwater vulnerability was more significant in February, March, and December. Due to the WEN's transboundary effects, overall, the freshwater vulnerability was slightly worsened within the Eastern Interconnection, substantially improved within the Western Interconnection, and least affected within the ERCOT Interconnection.

Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

The remarkable environmental rebound effect of electric cars: a microeconomic approach.

This article presents a stepwise, refined, and practical analytical framework to model the microeconomic environmental rebound effect (ERE) stemming from cost differences of electric cars in terms of changes in multiple life cycle environmental indicators. The analytical framework is based on marginal consumption analysis and hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA). The article makes a novel contribution through a reinterpretation of the traditional rebound effect and methodological refinements. It also provides novel empirical results about the ERE for plug-in hybrid electric (PHE), full-battery electric (FBE), and hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) cars for Europe. The ERE is found to have a remarkable impact on product-level environmental scores. For the PHE car, the ERE causes a marginal increase in demand and environmental pressures due to a small decrease in the cost of using this technology. For FBE and HFC cars, the high capital costs cause a noteworthy decrease in environmental pressures for some indicators (negative rebound effect). The results corroborate the concern over the high influence of cost differences for environmental assessment, and they prompt sustainable consumption policies to consider markets and prices as tools rather than as an immutable background.

Carbon footprint and life cycle economic costs of pilot Know-as-you-Throw schemes in Italy and Spain.

Considerable resources are spent globally on actions to improve the separate collection of municipal waste aiming to minimise the environmental and economic impacts of municipal waste management. One of such actions are know-as-you-throw (KAYT) schemes, which aim to change the behaviour of waste generators through tailored communication of information. KAYT schemes offer a relatively uncontroversial and simple tool, yet their environmental and economic performance remains unknown due to their limited implementation. To fill this gap, the LIFE-funded REthinkWASTE project applied a novel KAYT scheme in four pilot areas in Italy and Spain. The results of such pilots were evaluated in terms of carbon footprint and life-cycle costs of municipal waste management. The carbon footprint was notably reduced in all pilot areas, ranging from a 46% to 19% reduction, mainly due to notable reductions in unsorted waste (between 10 and 17% reduction) and subsequent lower treatment impacts. Life-cycle costs slightly increased overall, ranging from 4.6% to a -0.4% change. In addition to various sources of uncertainty, self-selection and recency biases are highlighted as major sources for potentially overestimating the benefits of KAYT in the context of large-scale and long-term KAYT implementation. The results however consistently show that the additional carbon footprint from KAYT actions can be offset with less than a 5% reduction in unsorted waste, well below the observed values. The results robustly reveal the potential of KAYT to notably reduce the carbon footprint of waste management systems with limited investment of economic resources.

A holistic approach to the environmental evaluation of food waste prevention.

The environmental evaluation of food waste prevention is considered a challenging task due to the globalised nature of the food supply chain and the limitations of existing evaluation tools. The most significant of these is the rebound effect: the associated environmental burdens of substitutive consumption that arises as a result of economic savings made from food waste prevention. This study introduces a holistic approach to addressing these challenges, with a focus on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from household food waste in the UK. It uses a hybrid life-cycle assessment model coupled with a highly detailed multi-regional environmentally extended input output analysis to capture environmental impacts across the global food supply chain. The study also takes into consideration the rebound effect, which was modelled using a linear specification of an almost ideal demand system. The study finds that food waste prevention could lead to substantial reductions in GHG emissions in the order of 706-896kg CO2-eq. per tonne of food waste, with most of these savings (78%) occurring as a result of avoided food production overseas. The rebound effect may however reduce such GHG savings by up to 60%. These findings provide a deeper insight into our understanding of the environmental impacts of food waste prevention: the study demonstrates the need to adopt a holistic approach when developing food waste prevention policies in order to mitigate the rebound effect and highlight the importance of increasing efficiency across the global food supply chain, particularly in developing countries.

Building waste management core indicators through Spatial Material Flow Analysis: net recovery and transport intensity indexes.

In this paper, the material and spatial characterization of the flows within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system are combined through a Network-Based Spatial Material Flow Analysis. Using this information, two core indicators are developed for the bio-waste fraction, the Net Recovery Index (NRI) and the Transport Intensity Index (TII), which are aimed at assessing progress towards policy-related sustainable MSW management strategies and objectives. The NRI approaches the capacity of a MSW management system for converting waste into resources through a systematic metabolic approach, whereas the TII addresses efficiency in terms of the transport requirements to manage a specific waste flow throughout the entire MSW management life cycle. Therefore, both indicators could be useful in assessing key MSW management policy strategies, such as the consecution of higher recycling levels (sustainability principle) or the minimization of transport by locating treatment facilities closer to generation sources (proximity principle). To apply this methodological approach, the bio-waste management system of the region of Catalonia (Spain) has been chosen as a case study. Results show the adequacy of both indicators for identifying those points within the system with higher capacity to compromise its environmental, economic and social performance and therefore establishing clear targets for policy prioritization. Moreover, this methodological approach permits scenario building, which could be useful in assessing the outcomes of hypothetical scenarios, thus proving its adequacy for strategic planning.