Migration and sustainable development.

To understand the implications of migration for sustainable development requires a comprehensive consideration of a range of population movements and their feedback across space and time. This Perspective reviews emerging science at the interface of migration studies, demography, and sustainability, focusing on consequences of migration flows for nature-society interactions including on societal outcomes such as inequality; environmental causes and consequences of involuntary displacement; and processes of cultural convergence in sustainability practices in dynamic new populations. We advance a framework that demonstrates how migration outcomes result in identifiable consequences on resources, environmental burdens and well-being, and on innovation, adaptation, and challenges for sustainability governance. We elaborate the research frontiers of migration for sustainability science, explicitly integrating the full spectrum of regular migration decisions dominated by economic motives through to involuntary displacement due to social or environmental stresses. Migration can potentially contribute to sustainability transitions when it enhances well-being while not exacerbating structural inequalities or compound uneven burdens on environmental resources.

Refugee settlements are highly exposed to extreme weather conditions.

Involuntary displacement from conflict and other causes leads to clustering of refugees and internally displaced people, often in long-term settlements. Within refugee-hosting countries, refugee settlements are frequently located in isolated and remote areas, characterized by poor-quality land and harsh climatic conditions. Yet, the exposure of refugee settlements to climatic events is underresearched. In this article, we study the exposure of the 20 largest refugee settlements worldwide to extreme variations in climatic conditions. The analysis integrates exposure of camp locations compared to the national trends for both slow- and rapid-onset events and includes descriptive statistics, signal-to-noise analyses, and trend analyses. Our findings show that most refugee settlements included face relatively high exposure to slow-onset events, including high temperatures (for settlements in Kenya, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Sudan, and Uganda), low temperatures (in the case of Jordan and Pakistan), and low levels of rainfall (in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Kenya, and Uganda) compared to national averages. Our findings for rapid-onset events-heatwaves, coldwaves, and extreme rainfall-are less conclusive compared to country trends, although we find relatively high exposure to extreme rainfall in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. Our analyses confirm that refugee populations are exposed to extreme weather conditions postdisplacement, which, in combination with their sociopolitical exclusion, poses a threat to well-being and increased marginalization. Our findings call for an inclusive and integrated approach, including refugees and their host communities, in designing climate adaptation and sustainable development policies, in order to promote equitable sustainable development pathways in refugee-hosting countries.

Migration, Embeddedness, and Vulnerability During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic and concomitant policy measures have disproportionally affected the lives of migrants worldwide. Focusing on inequalities between social groups, studies have tended to neglect the role of local embeddedness as a factor influencing the extent to which individuals are affected by COVID-19. In this paper, we study the vulnerabilities of people with different migration experiences in an urban setting in the early stages of the pandemic, focusing on three key livelihood assets: economic, social, and human capital (health). Our analyses are based on online survey data (n = 1381) collected among international migrants, second-generation residents (those with at least one parent born abroad), and non-migrants residing in Amsterdam in July 2020. We find that international migrants, and particularly those who arrived in the city more recently, reported larger shocks to their economic and social capital than other city residents. This finding illustrates the vulnerabilities of "newcomers" to the city and their limited resilience to shocks. Second-generation residents were particularly vulnerable in terms of health, but this relationship was strongly mediated by education and neighborhood effects. In all three groups, those with poor relative wealth and those who were self-employed were more vulnerable to economic shocks. Our findings illustrate how the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated inequalities in vulnerabilities across migrant and non-migrant groups, and how those who were locally embedded, including migrants and non-migrants, were less likely to be negatively affected by the pandemic.

COVID-19 responses restricted abilities and aspirations for mobility and migration: insights from diverse cities in four continents.

Research on the impacts of COVID-19 on mobility has focused primarily on the increased health vulnerabilities of involuntary migrant and displaced populations. But virtually all migration flows have been truncated and altered because of reduced economic and mobility opportunities of migrants. Here we use a well-established framework of migration decision-making, whereby individual decisions combine the aspiration and ability to migrate, to explain how public responses to the COVID-19 pandemic alter migration patterns among urban populations across the world. The principal responses to COVID-19 pandemic that affected migration are: 1) through travel restrictions and border closures, 2) by affecting abilities to move through economic and other means, and 3) by affecting aspirations to move. Using in-depth qualitative data collected in six cities in four continents (Accra, Amsterdam, Brussels, Dhaka, Maputo, and Worcester), we explore how populations with diverse levels of education and occupations were affected in their current and future mobility decisions. We use data from interviews with sample of internal and international migrants and non-migrants during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic outbreak to identify the mechanisms through which the pandemic affected their mobility decisions. The results show common processes across the different geographical contexts: individuals perceived increased risks associated with further migration, which affected their migration aspirations, and had reduced abilities to migrate, all of which affected their migration decision-making processes. The results also reveal stark differences in perceived and experienced migration decision-making across precarious migrant groups compared to high-skilled and formally employed international migrants in all settings. This precarity of place is particularly evident in low-income marginalised populations.

Trends and Patterns of Global Refugee Migration.

This paper studies long-term trends and patterns in global refugee migration. We explore the intensity, spread, and distance of refugee migration at a global, regional, and country level between 1951 and 2018. The analysis did not detect a long-term increase in the global intensity of refugee migration. Primarily depending on levels of conflict, refugee numbers have fluctuated at levels of between 0.1 and 0.3 percent of the world population. Apparent increases in numbers of the globally displaced are driven by the inclusion of populations and countries that were previously excluded from the data. While refugee populations continue to be concentrated in countries with low-to-medium income levels, the analysis reveals several geographic shifts in refugee migration. Refugees tend to come from a shrinking number of origin countries and move to an increasing variety of destination countries. This trend seems to reflect a concentration of recurrent conflict cycles in a relatively small number of countries and a parallel increase in the number of safe destinations. Although the vast majority of refugees remain near to origin countries, the average distance between origin and destination countries has increased over time, presumably linked to the greater ease of travel and migration-facilitating networks.

The educational impact of shocks in utero: Evidence from Rwanda.

Research on the impact of violence and conflict on education typically focuses on exposure among a cohort of school-aged children. In line with the fetal origins hypothesis, this paper studies the long-run effect of exposure to adverse maternal health shocks while still in the womb. Exploiting the sudden and discrete nature of the Rwandan genocide and an identification strategy based on temporal and spatial variation, we find that the cohort in utero during the genocide reported on average 0.3 fewer years of schooling in the 2012 Rwanda. Population and Housing Census and was 8% points less likely to finish primary school relative to the cohort in utero just a couple of months later.