Diverse tumorigenic consequences of human papillomavirus integration in primary oropharyngeal cancers.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) causes 5% of all cancers and frequently integrates into host chromosomes. The HPV oncoproteins E6 and E7 are necessary but insufficient for cancer formation, indicating that additional secondary genetic events are required. Here, we investigate potential oncogenic impacts of virus integration. Analysis of 105 HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers by whole-genome sequencing detects virus integration in 77%, revealing five statistically significant sites of recurrent integration near genes that regulate epithelial stem cell maintenance (i.e., SOX2, TP63, FGFR, MYC) and immune evasion (i.e., CD274). Genomic copy number hyperamplification is enriched 16-fold near HPV integrants, and the extent of focal host genomic instability increases with their local density. The frequency of genes expressed at extreme outlier levels is increased 86-fold within ±150 kb of integrants. Across 95% of tumors with integration, host gene transcription is disrupted via intragenic integrants, chimeric transcription, outlier expression, gene breaking, and/or de novo expression of noncoding or imprinted genes. We conclude that virus integration can contribute to carcinogenesis in a large majority of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers by inducing extensive disruption of host genome structure and gene expression.

Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials of p16-positive squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The increased incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers has motivated efforts to optimise treatment for these patients with excellent prognosis. Validation of surrogates for overall survival could expedite the investigation of new therapies. We sought to evaluate candidate intermediate clinical endpoints in trials assessing definitive treatment of p16-positive oropharyngeal cancer with chemotherapy or radiotherapy. METHODS: We did a retrospective review of five multicentre, randomised trials (NRG/RTOG 9003, 0129, 0234, 0522, and 1016) that tested radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy in patients (aged ≥18 years) with p16-positive localised head or neck squamous-cell carcinomas. Eight intermediate clinical endpoints were considered as potential surrogates for overall survival: freedom from local progression, freedom from regional progression, freedom from distant metastasis, freedom from locoregional progression, freedom from any progression, locoregional progression-free survival, progression-free survival, and distant metastasis-free survival. We used a two-stage meta-analytical framework, which requires high correlation between the intermediate clinical endpoint and overall survival at the patient level (condition 1), and high correlation between the treatment effect on the intermediate clinical endpoint and the treatment effect on overall survival (condition 2). For both, an r2 greater than 0·7 was used as criteria for clinically relevant surrogacy. FINDINGS: We analysed 1373 patients with oropharyngeal cancer from May 9, 2020, to Nov 22, 2023. 1231 (90%) of patients were men, 142 (10%) were women, and 1207 (88%) were White, with a median age of 57 years (IQR 51-62). Median follow-up was 4·2 years (3·1-5·1). For the first condition, correlating the intermediate clinical endpoints with overall survival at the individual and trial level, the three composite endpoints of locoregional progression-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·91 and r2 0·72), distant metastasis-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·93 and r2 0·83), and progression-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·88 and r2 0·70) were highly correlated with overall survival at the patient level and at the trial-group level. For the second condition, correlating treatment effects of the intermediate clinical endpoints and overall survival, the composite endpoints of locoregional progression-free survival (r2 0·88), distant metastasis-free survival (r2 0·96), and progression-free survival (r2 0·92) remained strong surrogates. Treatment effects on the remaining intermediate clinical endpoints were less strongly correlated with overall survival. INTERPRETATION: We identified locoregional progression-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival, and progression-free survival as surrogates for overall survival in p16-positive oropharyngeal cancers treated with chemotherapy or radiotherapy, which could serve as clinical trial endpoints. FUNDING: NRG Oncology Operations, NRG Oncology SDMC, the National Cancer Institute, Eli Lilly, Aventis, and the University of Michigan.

Outcomes in biomarker-selected subgroups from the KESTREL study of durvalumab and tremelimumab in recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Selective biomarkers may improve outcomes in patients with recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy. We investigated three independent biomarkers for association with efficacy in the randomized, phase III KESTREL study (NCT02551159) of first-line durvalumab monotherapy or durvalumab plus tremelimumab versus the EXTREME regimen: programmed cell death ligand-1 (PD-L1) immunohistochemistry, blood tumor mutational burden (bTMB) via circulating tumor DNA, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). METHODS: Tumor or blood samples from patients enrolled in the KESTREL study were analyzed for PD-L1, bTMB, and NLR. Associations with overall survival (OS) or objective response rates (ORRs) were evaluated based on prespecified cut-offs for PD-L1 (tumor cell [TC] ≥ 50%/immune cell ≥ 25% or TC ≥ 25%), bTMB (≥ 16 mutations [mut] per megabase [Mb]), and NLR (≤ 7). Ad hoc analyses of exploratory cut-offs were performed. RESULTS: Prespecified or exploratory cut-offs for PD-L1 did not enrich for ORR or OS for durvalumab monotherapy or durvalumab plus tremelimumab versus EXTREME. In the bTMB ≥ 16 mut/Mb subgroup, OS hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for durvalumab monotherapy and durvalumab plus tremelimumab versus EXTREME were 0.90 (0.48-1.72) and 0.69 (0.39-1.25), respectively. Complete response rates were 8.6% with durvalumab plus tremelimumab and 4.3% with EXTREME (≥ 16 mut/Mb subgroup). No improvement in OS was observed for durvalumab monotherapy or durvalumab plus tremelimumab versus EXTREME at prespecified or exploratory NLR cut-offs. CONCLUSIONS: bTMB demonstrated potential utility for selecting patients with R/M HNSCC who benefited from durvalumab with or without tremelimumab versus EXTREME. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02551159.

Incidence and Clearance of Anal Human Papillomavirus Infection in 16 164 Individuals, According to Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, Sex, and Male Sexuality: An International Pooled Analysis of 34 Longitudinal Studies.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the natural history of anal high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) infection is key for designing anal cancer prevention programs but has not been systematically characterized. METHODS: We reanalyzed data from 34 studies including 16 164 individuals in 6 risk groups defined by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, sex, and male sexuality: men who have sex with men (MSM) and people with HIV (MSMWH), HIV-negative MSM, women with HIV (WWH), HIV-negative women, men who have sex with women (MSW) with HIV (MSWWH), and HIV-negative MSW. We used Markov models to estimate incidence and clearance of 13 hrHPV types and their determinants. RESULTS: Human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 had the highest incidence-clearance ratio of the hrHPV types. MSMWH had the highest hrHPV incidence (eg, 15.5% newly HPV-16 infected within 2 years), followed by HIV-negative MSM (7.5%), WWH (6.6%), HIV-negative women (2.9%), MSWWH (1.7%), and HIV-negative MSW (0.7%). Determinants of HPV-16 incidence included HIV status and number of sexual partners for MSM, women, and MSW, and anal sex behavior for MSM only. HPV-16 clearance was lower for people with HIV (PWH) and lower for prevalent than incident infection. Among MSM, increasing age was associated with lower clearance of prevalent, but not incident, HPV-16 infection. CONCLUSIONS: This robust and unifying analysis of anal hrHPV natural history is essential to designing and predicting the impact of HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening programs on anal cancer prevention, particularly in MSM and PWH. Importantly, it demonstrates the higher carcinogenic potential of longstanding anal prevalent hrHPV infection than more recent incident infection.

Risk factors for head and neck cancer in more and less developed countries: Analysis from the INHANCE consortium.

OBJECTIVE: We analyzed the pooled case-control data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium to compare cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption risk factors for head and neck cancer between less developed and more developed countries. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The location of each study was categorized as either a less developed or more developed country. We compared the risk of overall head and neck cancer and cancer of specific anatomic subsites associated with cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption. Additionally, age and sex distribution between categories was compared. RESULTS: The odds ratios for head and neck cancer sites associated with smoking duration differed between less developed and more developed countries. Smoking greater than 20 years conferred a higher risk for oral cavity and laryngeal cancer in more developed countries, whereas the risk was greater for oropharynx and hypopharynx cancer in less developed countries. Alcohol consumed for more than 20 years conferred a higher risk for oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx cancer in less developed countries. The proportion of cases that were young (<45 years) or female differed by country type for some HNC subsites. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest the degree of industrialization and economic development affects the relationship between smoking and alcohol with head and neck cancer.

Long-term Outcomes with Nivolumab as First-line Treatment in Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer: Subgroup Analysis of CheckMate 141.

In the randomized, phase 3 CheckMate 141 trial, nivolumab significantly improved overall survival (OS) versus investigator's choice (IC) of chemotherapy at primary analysis among 361 patients with recurrent or metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (R/M SCCHN) post-platinum therapy. Nivolumab versus IC as first-line treatment also improved OS among patients with R/M SCCHN who progressed on platinum therapy for locally advanced disease in the adjuvant or primary setting at 1-year follow-up. In the present long-term follow-up analysis of patients receiving first-line treatment, OS benefit with nivolumab (n = 50) versus IC (n = 26) was maintained (median: 7.7 months versus 3.3 months; hazard ratio: 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.94) at 2 years. No new safety signals were identified. In summary, this long-term 2-year analysis of CheckMate 141 supports the use of nivolumab as a first-line treatment for patients with platinum-refractory R/M SCCHN.

Human papillomavirus and the landscape of secondary genetic alterations in oral cancers.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a necessary but insufficient cause of a subset of oral squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs) that is increasing markedly in frequency. To identify contributory, secondary genetic alterations in these cancers, we used comprehensive genomics methods to compare 149 HPV-positive and 335 HPV-negative OSCC tumor/normal pairs. Different behavioral risk factors underlying the two OSCC types were reflected in distinctive genomic mutational signatures. In HPV-positive OSCCs, the signatures of APOBEC cytosine deaminase editing, associated with anti-viral immunity, were strongly linked to overall mutational burden. In contrast, in HPV-negative OSCCs, T>C substitutions in the sequence context 5'-ATN-3' correlated with tobacco exposure. Universal expression of HPV E6*1 and E7 oncogenes was a sine qua non of HPV-positive OSCCs. Significant enrichment of somatic mutations was confirmed or newly identified in PIK3CA, KMT2D, FGFR3, FBXW7, DDX3X, PTEN, TRAF3, RB1, CYLD, RIPK4, ZNF750, EP300, CASZ1, TAF5, RBL1, IFNGR1, and NFKBIA Of these, many affect host pathways already targeted by HPV oncoproteins, including the p53 and pRB pathways, or disrupt host defenses against viral infections, including interferon (IFN) and nuclear factor kappa B signaling. Frequent copy number changes were associated with concordant changes in gene expression. Chr 11q (including CCND1) and 14q (including DICER1 and AKT1) were recurrently lost in HPV-positive OSCCs, in contrast to their gains in HPV-negative OSCCs. High-ranking variant allele fractions implicated ZNF750, PIK3CA, and EP300 mutations as candidate driver events in HPV-positive cancers. We conclude that virus-host interactions cooperatively shape the unique genetic features of these cancers, distinguishing them from their HPV-negative counterparts.

NCCN Guidelines® Insights: Head and Neck Cancers, Version 1.2022.

The NCCN Guidelines for Head and Neck Cancers address tumors arising in the oral cavity (including mucosal lip), pharynx, larynx, and paranasal sinuses. Occult primary cancer, salivary gland cancer, and mucosal melanoma (MM) are also addressed. The specific site of disease, stage, and pathologic findings guide treatment (eg, the appropriate surgical procedure, radiation targets, dose and fractionation of radiation, indications for systemic therapy). The NCCN Head and Neck Cancers Panel meets at least annually to review comments from reviewers within their institutions, examine relevant new data from publications and abstracts, and reevaluate and update their recommendations. These NCCN Guidelines Insights summarize the panel's most recent recommendations regarding management of HPV-positive oropharynx cancer and ongoing research in this area.

Independent association of marijuana use and poor oral hygiene with HPV-negative but not HPV-positive head and neck squamous cell carcinomas.

BACKGROUND: Sexual behavior is associated with human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive head and neck cancer, whereas tobacco and alcohol use are associated with HPV-negative cancer. A case-control study was designed to investigate additional demographic and behavioral factors independently associated with these distinct oral cancers. METHODS: From 2011 to 2014, 249 newly diagnosed oral cavity and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) cases were matched (1:2) on age, gender, and self-identified race to 498 controls without a cancer history attending the outpatient otolaryngology clinic at The Ohio State University in Columbus. Cases were stratified by detection of high-risk HPV DNA and RNA in tumors. Demographic and behavioral data were collected using an audio computer-assisted self-interview, and associations with HPV-positive versus HPV-negative OSCCs were investigated by use of univariable and multivariable conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: After adjustment for oral sexual behavior, the odds of HPV-positive cancer decreased with the patient's years of education. Annual income, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, marijuana smoking, and poor oral hygiene were not associated with HPV-positive OSCC. In contrast, the odds of HPV-negative OSCC increased independently with decreased annual income, decreased with a high number of marijuana hit-years, and increased with fewer than annual dental visits after adjustment for lifetime tobacco and alcohol use. Sexual behavior and education were not associated with HPV-negative OSCC. CONCLUSIONS: The distinct risk-factor profiles for HPV-positive and HPV-negative OSCC are confirmed and extended in this case-control study, thus supporting 2 principal etiological pathways for OSCC development. LAY SUMMARY: Sexually acquired human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is an established cause of tonsil and base of tongue cancers. This study compared and contrasted risk factors for HPV-positive and HPV-negative oral cancers. Low number of years of education and sexual behavior are associated with HPV-positive cancer. In contrast, low annual income, infrequent dental visits, and tobacco and alcohol use are associated with HPV-negative cancers. Long-term marijuana use appears protective for HPV-negative cancer. Public health efforts to address these modifiable risk factors may prevent oral cancer.

HPV integration hijacks and multimerizes a cellular enhancer to generate a viral-cellular super-enhancer that drives high viral oncogene expression.

Integration of human papillomavirus (HPV) genomes into cellular chromatin is common in HPV-associated cancers. Integration is random, and each site is unique depending on how and where the virus integrates. We recently showed that tandemly integrated HPV16 could result in the formation of a super-enhancer-like element that drives transcription of the viral oncogenes. Here, we characterize the chromatin landscape and genomic architecture of this integration locus to elucidate the mechanisms that promoted de novo super-enhancer formation. Using next-generation sequencing and molecular combing/fiber-FISH, we show that ~26 copies of HPV16 are integrated into an intergenic region of chromosome 2p23.2, interspersed with 25 kb of amplified, flanking cellular DNA. This interspersed, co-amplified viral-host pattern is frequent in HPV-associated cancers and here we designate it as Type III integration. An abundant viral-cellular fusion transcript encoding the viral E6/E7 oncogenes is expressed from the integration locus and the chromatin encompassing both the viral enhancer and a region in the adjacent amplified cellular sequences is strongly enriched in the super-enhancer markers H3K27ac and Brd4. Notably, the peak in the amplified cellular sequence corresponds to an epithelial-cell-type specific enhancer. Thus, HPV16 integration generated a super-enhancer-like element composed of tandem interspersed copies of the viral upstream regulatory region and a cellular enhancer, to drive high levels of oncogene expression.

Risk Prediction Models for Head and Neck Cancer in the US Population From the INHANCE Consortium.

Head and neck cancer (HNC) risk prediction models based on risk factor profiles have not yet been developed. We took advantage of the large database of the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium, including 14 US studies from 1981-2010, to develop HNC risk prediction models. Seventy percent of the data were used to develop the risk prediction models; the remaining 30% were used to validate the models. We used competing-risk models to calculate absolute risks. The predictors included age, sex, education, race/ethnicity, alcohol drinking intensity, cigarette smoking duration and intensity, and/or family history of HNC. The 20-year absolute risk of HNC was 7.61% for a 60-year-old woman who smoked more than 20 cigarettes per day for over 20 years, consumed 3 or more alcoholic drinks per day, was a high school graduate, had a family history of HNC, and was non-Hispanic white. The 20-year risk for men with a similar profile was 6.85%. The absolute risks of oropharyngeal and hypopharyngeal cancers were generally lower than those of oral cavity and laryngeal cancers. Statistics for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.70 or higher, except for oropharyngeal cancer in men. This HNC risk prediction model may be useful in promoting healthier behaviors such as smoking cessation or in aiding persons with a family history of HNC to evaluate their risks.

Radiotherapy plus cetuximab or cisplatin in human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer (NRG Oncology RTOG 1016): a randomised, multicentre, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma have high survival when treated with radiotherapy plus cisplatin. Whether replacement of cisplatin with cetuximab-an antibody against the epidermal growth factor receptor-can preserve high survival and reduce treatment toxicity is unknown. We investigated whether cetuximab would maintain a high proportion of patient survival and reduce acute and late toxicity. METHODS: RTOG 1016 was a randomised, multicentre, non-inferiority trial at 182 health-care centres in the USA and Canada. Eligibility criteria included histologically confirmed HPV-positive oropharyngeal carcinoma; American Joint Committee on Cancer 7th edition clinical categories T1-T2, N2a-N3 M0 or T3-T4, N0-N3 M0; Zubrod performance status 0 or 1; age at least 18 years; and adequate bone marrow, hepatic, and renal function. We randomly assigned patients (1:1) to receive either radiotherapy plus cetuximab or radiotherapy plus cisplatin. Randomisation was balanced by using randomly permuted blocks, and patients were stratified by T category (T1-T2 vs T3-T4), N category (N0-N2a vs N2b-N3), Zubrod performance status (0 vs 1), and tobacco smoking history (≤10 pack-years vs >10 pack-years). Patients were assigned to receive either intravenous cetuximab at a loading dose of 400 mg/m2 5-7 days before radiotherapy initiation, followed by cetuximab 250 mg/m2 weekly for seven doses (total 2150 mg/m2), or cisplatin 100 mg/m2 on days 1 and 22 of radiotherapy (total 200 mg/m2). All patients received accelerated intensity-modulated radiotherapy delivered at 70 Gy in 35 fractions over 6 weeks at six fractions per week (with two fractions given on one day, at least 6 h apart). The primary endpoint was overall survival, defined as time from randomisation to death from any cause, with non-inferiority margin 1·45. Primary analysis was based on the modified intention-to-treat approach, whereby all patients meeting eligibility criteria are included. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01302834. FINDINGS: Between June 9, 2011, and July 31, 2014, 987 patients were enrolled, of whom 849 were randomly assigned to receive radiotherapy plus cetuximab (n=425) or radiotherapy plus cisplatin (n=424). 399 patients assigned to receive cetuximab and 406 patients assigned to receive cisplatin were subsequently eligible. After median follow-up duration of 4·5 years, radiotherapy plus cetuximab did not meet the non-inferiority criteria for overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] 1·45, one-sided 95% upper CI 1·94; p=0·5056 for non-inferiority; one-sided log-rank p=0·0163). Estimated 5-year overall survival was 77·9% (95% CI 73·4-82·5) in the cetuximab group versus 84·6% (80·6-88·6) in the cisplatin group. Progression-free survival was significantly lower in the cetuximab group compared with the cisplatin group (HR 1·72, 95% CI 1·29-2·29; p=0·0002; 5-year progression-free survival 67·3%, 95% CI 62·4-72·2 vs 78·4%, 73·8-83·0), and locoregional failure was significantly higher in the cetuximab group compared with the cisplatin group (HR 2·05, 95% CI 1·35-3·10; 5-year proportions 17·3%, 95% CI 13·7-21·4 vs 9·9%, 6·9-13·6). Proportions of acute moderate to severe toxicity (77·4%, 95% CI 73·0-81·5 vs 81·7%, 77·5-85·3; p=0·1586) and late moderate to severe toxicity (16·5%, 95% CI 12·9-20·7 vs 20·4%, 16·4-24·8; p=0·1904) were similar between the cetuximab and cisplatin groups. INTERPRETATION: For patients with HPV-positive oropharyngeal carcinoma, radiotherapy plus cetuximab showed inferior overall survival and progression-free survival compared with radiotherapy plus cisplatin. Radiotherapy plus cisplatin is the standard of care for eligible patients with HPV-positive oropharyngeal carcinoma. FUNDING: National Cancer Institute USA, Eli Lilly, and The Oral Cancer Foundation.

Evolving Role of Immunotherapy in Recurrent Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer.

Immunotherapy has revolutionized cancer treatment in the past 2 decades, mostly with immune checkpoint blockade approaches. In squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN), the initial efficacy of immunotherapy was observed in patients with recurrent or metastatic (R/M) disease who received other prior systemic treatment. As monotherapy, anti-PD-1 therapies induce responses in 13% to 18% of patients. More recently, immunotherapy in combination with cytotoxic chemotherapy demonstrated greater safety and efficacy as first-line systemic treatment compared with chemotherapy alone. In R/M SCCHN, the most important benefit of immunotherapy is the significantly improved overall survival, especially in patients with PD-L1-positive tumors. As of 2019, immunotherapy can be used as first-line or subsequent treatment of R/M SCCHN. Many ongoing trials are evaluating immunotherapy combinations or novel immunotherapy strategies, aiming to improve response rate and overall survival. As new targets are identified and new approaches are leveraged, the role of immunotherapy in R/M SCCHN continues to evolve.

Head and Neck Cancers, Version 2.2020, NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology.

Treatment is complex for patients with head and neck (H&N) cancers with specific site of disease, stage, and pathologic findings guiding treatment decision-making. Treatment planning for H&N cancers involves a multidisciplinary team of experts. This article describes supportive care recommendations in the NCCN Guidelines for Head and Neck Cancers, as well as the rationale supporting a new section on imaging recommendations for patients with H&N cancers. This article also describes updates to treatment recommendations for patients with very advanced H&N cancers and salivary gland tumors, specifically systemic therapy recommendations.

Development and validation of an individualized risk prediction model for oropharynx cancer in the US population.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of oropharynx cancers has increased substantially in the United States. However, risk stratification tools for the identification of high-risk individuals do not exist. In this study, an individualized risk prediction model was developed and validated for oropharynx cancers in the US population. METHODS: A synthetic, US population-based case-control study was conducted. Oropharynx cancer cases diagnosed at Ohio State University (n = 241) were propensity-weighted to represent oropharynx cancers occurring annually in the United States during 2009-2014 (n = 12,656). Controls (n = 9327) included participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2009-2014) and represented the annual US population aged 30 to 69 years (n = 154,532,508). The individualized 1-year absolute risk of oropharynx cancer was estimated with weighted logistic regression. RESULTS: The risk prediction model included age, sex, race, smoking, alcohol use, lifetime sexual partners, and oral oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) status. The model had good discrimination and calibration in split-sample validation (area under the curve [AUC], 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-0.97; observed/expected [O/E], 1.01; 95% CI, 0.70-1.32) and external validation (AUC, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.84-0.90; O/E, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.77-1.39). In the US population, 1-year predicted risks of oropharynx cancer were highest for older individuals (21.1/100,000 for 65- to 69-year-olds), men (13.9/100,000), whites (10.4/100,000), smokers (18.0/100,000 for >20 pack-years), heavy alcohol users (18.4/100,000), and those with prevalent oral oncogenic HPV (140.4/100,000). The risk prediction model provided substantial risk stratification, with approximately 77% of all oropharynx cancers and approximately 99% of HPV-positive oropharynx cancers occurring in the 10% of the US population with the highest model-predicted risk. CONCLUSIONS: This risk prediction model will enable the efficient design of studies to address the outstanding questions pertaining to the natural history, screening, and secondary prevention of oropharynx cancers.

Nivolumab treatment beyond RECIST-defined progression in recurrent or metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck in CheckMate 141: A subgroup analysis of a randomized phase 3 clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Response patterns with immune checkpoint inhibitors may be different from those with chemotherapy. Therefore, assessment of response to immunotherapy with the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST), version 1.1, could result in premature treatment termination. The randomized, open-label, phase 3 CheckMate 141 trial (NCT02105636), which evaluated nivolumab in recurrent/metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck after platinum therapy, allowed treatment beyond first RECIST-defined progression (TBP) according to protocol-specified criteria. METHODS: In CheckMate 141, patients with RECIST-defined progression who had a stable performance status and demonstrated clinical benefit without rapid disease progression were permitted to receive TBP with nivolumab at 3 mg/kg every 2 weeks until further progression, which was defined as an additional ≥10% increase in tumor volume. This post hoc analysis evaluated outcomes for patients who received TBP with nivolumab. RESULTS: Of 240 patients randomized to nivolumab, 146 experienced RECIST-defined progression. Sixty-two of these patients received TBP, and 84 discontinued treatment (no TBP). Among the 60 TBP patients evaluable for response, 15 (25%) had no change in their tumor burden, and 15 (25%) had reductions in target lesion size; 3 patients (5%) had reductions >30%. The median overall survival among TBP patients was 12.7 months (95% confidence interval, 9.7-14.6 months). No new safety signals were observed with TBP. Exploratory analyses of immune cell biomarkers suggested a potential relationship with initial and TBP responses. CONCLUSIONS: Tumor burden reduction was noted in a proportion of patients who received TBP with nivolumab in CheckMate 141. Additional research is warranted to identify factors predictive of a TBP benefit in this population.

Validation of NRG oncology/RTOG-0129 risk groups for HPV-positive and HPV-negative oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer: Implications for risk-based therapeutic intensity trials.

BACKGROUND: Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG)-0129 recursive partitioning analysis was the basis for risk-based therapeutic intensification trials for oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). To the authors' knowledge, the question of whether RTOG-0129 overall survival (OS) estimates for low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups are similar in other data sets or applicable to progression-free survival (PFS) is unknown. Therefore, the authors evaluated whether survival differences between RTOG-0129 risk groups persist at 5 years, are reproducible in an independent clinical trial, and are applicable to PFS, and whether toxicities differ across risk groups. METHODS: Prospective randomized clinical trials were analyzed retrospectively. RTOG-0129 evaluated standard versus accelerated fractionation radiotherapy concurrent with cisplatin. RTOG-0522 compared the combination of cisplatin and accelerated fractionation with or without cetuximab. Patients with OPC with available p16 status and tobacco history were eligible. RESULTS: There was a total of 260 patients and 287 patients, respectively, from RTOG-0129 and RTOG-0522, with median follow-ups for surviving patients of 7.9 years (range, 1.7-9.9 years) and 4.7 years (range, 0.1-7.0 years), respectively. Previous OS differences in RTOG-0129 persisted at 5 years. In RTOG-0522, the 5-year OS rates for the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 88.1%, 69.9%, and 45.1%, respectively (P for trend, <.001). The 5-year PFS rates for the same 3 groups were 72.9%, 56.1%, and 42.2%, respectively. In RTOG-0522 among a subgroup of patients considered to be at very good risk (p16-positive disease, smoking history of ≤10 pack-years, and classified with T1-T2 disease with ipsilateral lymph nodes measuring ≤6 cm or T3 disease without contralateral or >6 cm lymph nodes), the 5-year OS and PFS rates were 93.8% and 82.2%, respectively. Overall rates of acute and late toxicities were similar by risk group. CONCLUSIONS: RTOG-0129 risk groups persisted at 5 years and were reproducible in RTOG-0522. However, there was variability in the estimates. These data underscore the importance of long-term follow-up and appropriate patient selection in therapeutic deintensification trials.

Nivolumab for Recurrent Squamous-Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck.

BACKGROUND: Patients with recurrent or metastatic squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck after platinum chemotherapy have a very poor prognosis and limited therapeutic options. Nivolumab, an anti-programmed death 1 (PD-1) monoclonal antibody, was assessed as treatment for this condition. METHODS: In this randomized, open-label, phase 3 trial, we assigned, in a 2:1 ratio, 361 patients with recurrent squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck whose disease had progressed within 6 months after platinum-based chemotherapy to receive nivolumab (at a dose of 3 mg per kilogram of body weight) every 2 weeks or standard, single-agent systemic therapy (methotrexate, docetaxel, or cetuximab). The primary end point was overall survival. Additional end points included progression-free survival, rate of objective response, safety, and patient-reported quality of life. RESULTS: The median overall survival was 7.5 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.5 to 9.1) in the nivolumab group versus 5.1 months (95% CI, 4.0 to 6.0) in the group that received standard therapy. Overall survival was significantly longer with nivolumab than with standard therapy (hazard ratio for death, 0.70; 97.73% CI, 0.51 to 0.96; P=0.01), and the estimates of the 1-year survival rate were approximately 19 percentage points higher with nivolumab than with standard therapy (36.0% vs. 16.6%). The median progression-free survival was 2.0 months (95% CI, 1.9 to 2.1) with nivolumab versus 2.3 months (95% CI, 1.9 to 3.1) with standard therapy (hazard ratio for disease progression or death, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.70 to 1.13; P=0.32). The rate of progression-free survival at 6 months was 19.7% with nivolumab versus 9.9% with standard therapy. The response rate was 13.3% in the nivolumab group versus 5.8% in the standard-therapy group. Treatment-related adverse events of grade 3 or 4 occurred in 13.1% of the patients in the nivolumab group versus 35.1% of those in the standard-therapy group. Physical, role, and social functioning was stable in the nivolumab group, whereas it was meaningfully worse in the standard-therapy group. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with platinum-refractory, recurrent squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck, treatment with nivolumab resulted in longer overall survival than treatment with standard, single-agent therapy. (Funded by Bristol-Myers Squibb; CheckMate 141 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02105636 .).

Pathology Characterization and Detection of Human Papillomavirus Type 16 in Rectal Squamous Cell Carcinomas.

Rectal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is a rare tumor with unresolved etiology. Human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals and solid organ transplant recipients experience >30-fold and approximately 3-fold elevated rates of rectal SCC, respectively, suggesting immunosuppression plays a role.1 Human immunodeficiency virus-infected homosexual men have >60-fold higher rates of rectal SCC, similar to anal SCC. These patterns, which differ from the more common rectal adenocarcinoma (AdCA), raise the possibility of shared etiology between rectal and anal SCC, with human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) being a likely candidate.2.

CheckMate 141: 1-Year Update and Subgroup Analysis of Nivolumab as First-Line Therapy in Patients with Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer.

Nivolumab significantly improved overall survival (OS) vs investigator's choice (IC) of chemotherapy at the primary analysis of randomized, open-label, phase 3 CheckMate 141 in patients with recurrent or metastatic (R/M) squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). Here, we report that OS benefit with nivolumab was maintained at a minimum follow-up of 11.4 months. Further, OS benefit with nivolumab vs IC was also noted among patients who received first-line treatment for R/M SCCHN after progressing on platinum therapy for locally advanced disease in the adjuvant or primary (i.e., with radiation) setting.