Evaluation of two short standardised regimens for the treatment of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (STREAM stage 2): an open-label, multicentre, randomised, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: The STREAM stage 1 trial showed that a 9-month regimen for the treatment of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis was non-inferior to the 20-month 2011 WHO-recommended regimen. In STREAM stage 2, we aimed to compare two bedaquiline-containing regimens with the 9-month STREAM stage 1 regimen. METHODS: We did a randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial in 13 hospital clinics in seven countries, in individuals aged 15 years or older with rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis without fluoroquinolone or aminoglycoside resistance. Participants were randomly assigned 1:2:2:2 to the 2011 WHO regimen (terminated early), a 9-month control regimen, a 9-month oral regimen with bedaquiline (primary comparison), or a 6-month regimen with bedaquiline and 8 weeks of second-line injectable. Randomisations were stratified by site, HIV status, and CD4 count. Participants and clinicians were aware of treatment-group assignments, but laboratory staff were masked. The primary outcome was favourable status (negative cultures for Mycobacterium tuberculosis without a preceding unfavourable outcome) at 76 weeks; any death, bacteriological failure or recurrence, and major treatment change were considered unfavourable outcomes. All comparisons used groups of participants randomly assigned concurrently. For non-inferiority to be shown, the upper boundary of the 95% CI should be less than 10% in both modified intention-to-treat (mITT) and per-protocol analyses, with prespecified tests for superiority done if non-inferiority was shown. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN18148631. FINDINGS: Between March 28, 2016, and Jan 28, 2020, 1436 participants were screened and 588 were randomly assigned. Of 517 participants in the mITT population, 133 (71%) of 187 on the control regimen and 162 (83%) of 196 on the oral regimen had a favourable outcome: a difference of 11·0% (95% CI 2·9-19·0), adjusted for HIV status and randomisation protocol (p<0·0001 for non-inferiority). By 76 weeks, 108 (53%) of 202 participants on the control regimen and 106 (50%) of 211 allocated to the oral regimen had an adverse event of grade 3 or 4; five (2%) participants on the control regimen and seven (3%) on the oral regimen had died. Hearing loss (Brock grade 3 or 4) was more frequent in participants on the control regimen than in those on the oral regimen (18 [9%] vs four [2%], p=0·0015). Of 134 participants in the mITT population who were allocated to the 6-month regimen, 122 (91%) had a favourable outcome compared with 87 (69%) of 127 participants randomly assigned concurrently to the control regimen (adjusted difference 22·2%, 95% CI 13·1-31·2); six (4%) of 143 participants on the 6-month regimen had grade 3 or 4 hearing loss. INTERPRETATION: Both bedaquiline-containing regimens, a 9-month oral regimen and a 6-month regimen with 8 weeks of second-line injectable, had superior efficacy compared with a 9-month injectable-containing regimen, with fewer cases of hearing loss. FUNDING: USAID and Janssen Research & Development.

Children living with HIV in Europe: do migrants have worse treatment outcomes?

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of migrant status on treatment outcomes among children living with HIV in Europe. METHODS: Children aged < 18 years at the start of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in European paediatric HIV observational cohorts where ≥ 5% of children were migrants (defined as born abroad) were included. Three outcomes were considered: (i) severe immunosuppression-for-age; (ii) viraemic viral load (≥ 400 copies/mL) at 1 year after ART initiation; and (iii) AIDS/death after ART initiation. The effect of migrant status was assessed using univariable and multivariable logistic and Cox models. RESULTS: Of 2620 children included across 12 European countries, 56% were migrants. At ART initiation, migrant children were older than domestic-born children (median 6.1 vs. 0.9 years, p < 0.001), with slightly higher proportions being severely immunocompromised (35% vs. 33%) and with active tuberculosis (2% vs. 1%), but a lower proportion with an AIDS diagnosis (14% vs. 19%) (all p < 0.001). At 1 year after beginning ART, a lower proportion of migrant children were viraemic (18% vs. 24%) but there was no difference in multivariable analysis (p = 0.702), and no difference in severe immunosuppression (p = 0.409). However, there was a trend towards higher risk of AIDS/death in migrant children (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.96-2.38, p = 0.072). CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for characteristics at ART initiation, migrant children have virological and immunological outcomes at 1 year of ART that are comparable to those who are domestic-born, possibly indicating equity in access to healthcare in Europe. However, there was some evidence of a difference in AIDS-free survival, which warrants further monitoring.

Rapid accumulation of HIV-1 thymidine analogue mutations and phenotypic impact following prolonged viral failure on zidovudine-based first-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: Lack of viral load monitoring of ART is known to be associated with slower switch from a failing regimen and thereby higher prevalence of MDR HIV-1. Many countries have continued to use thymidine analogue drugs despite recommendations to use tenofovir in combination with a cytosine analogue and NNRTI as first-line ART. The effect of accumulated thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs) on phenotypic resistance over time has been poorly characterized in the African setting. Patients and methods: A retrospective analysis of individuals with ongoing viral failure between weeks 48 and 96 in the NORA (Nevirapine OR Abacavir) study was conducted. We analysed 36 genotype pairs from weeks 48 and 96 of first-line ART (14 treated with zidovudine/lamivudine/nevirapine and 22 treated with zidovudine/lamivudine/abacavir). Phenotypic drug resistance was assessed using the Antivirogram assay (v. 2.5.01, Janssen Diagnostics). Results: At 96 weeks, extensive TAMs (≥3 mutations) were present in 50% and 73% of nevirapine- and abacavir-treated patients, respectively. The mean (SE) number of TAMs accumulating between week 48 and week 96 was 1.50 (0.37) in nevirapine-treated participants and 1.82 (0.26) in abacavir-treated participants. Overall, zidovudine susceptibility of viruses was reduced between week 48 [geometric mean fold change (FC) 1.3] and week 96 (3.4, P = 0.01). There was a small reduction in tenofovir susceptibility (FC 0.7 and 1.0, respectively, P = 0.18). Conclusions: Ongoing viral failure with zidovudine-containing first-line ART is associated with rapidly increasing drug resistance that could be mitigated with effective viral load monitoring.

The virological durability of first-line ART among HIV-positive adult patients in resource limited settings without virological monitoring: a retrospective analysis of DART trial data.

BACKGROUND: Few low-income countries have virological monitoring widely available. We estimated the virological durability of first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) after five years of follow-up among adult Ugandan and Zimbabwean patients in the DART study, in which virological assays were conducted retrospectively. METHODS: DART compared clinically driven monitoring with/without routine CD4 measurement. Annual plasma viral load was measured on 1,762 patients. Analytical weights were calculated based on the inverse probability of sampling. Time to virological failure, defined as the first viral load measurement ≥200 copies/mL after 48 weeks of ART, was analysed using Kaplan-Meier plots and Cox regression models. RESULTS: Overall, 65% of DART trial patients were female. Patients initiated first-line ART at a median (interquartile range; IQR) age of 37 (32-42) and with a median CD4 cell count of 86 (32-140). After 240 weeks of ART, patients initiating dual-class nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) -non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase (NNRTI) regimens containing nevirapine + zidovudine + lamivudine had a lower incidence of virological failure than patients on triple-NRTI regimens containing tenofovir + zidovudine + lamivudine (21% vs 40%; hazard ratio (HR) =0.48, 95% CI:0.38-0.62; p < 0.0001). In multivariate analyses, female patients (HR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.65-0.95; p = 0.02), older patients (HR = 0.73 per 10 years, 95% CI: 0.64-0.84; p < 0.0001) and patients with a higher pre-ART CD4 cell count (HR = 0.64 per 100 cells/mm3, 95% CI: 0.54-0.75; p < 0.0001) had a lower incidence of virological failure after adjusting for adherence to ART. No difference in failure rate between the two randomised monitoring strategies was observed (p= 0.25). CONCLUSIONS: The long-term durability of virological suppression on dual-class NRTI-NNRTI first-line ART without virological monitoring is remarkable and is enabled by high-quality clinical management and a consistent drug supply. To achieve higher rates of virological suppression viral-load-informed differentiated care may be required. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Prospectively registered on 18/10/2000 as ISRCTN13968779 .

High rate of HIV resuppression after viral failure on first-line antiretroviral therapy in the absence of switch to second-line therapy.

In a randomized comparison of nevirapine or abacavir with zidovudine plus lamivudine, routine viral load monitoring was not performed, yet 27% of individuals with viral failure at week 48 experienced resuppression by week 96 without switching. This supports World Health Organization recommendations that suspected viral failure should trigger adherence counseling and repeat measurement before a treatment switch is considered.

Comparative Efficacy and Safety of Moxifloxacin and Levofloxacin in a Short Standardised Rifampicin Resistant TB Regimen: A STREAM 2 Secondary Analysis.

(1) Background: The World Health Organisation (WHO) categorises moxifloxacin and levofloxacin as Group A drugs, which should be prioritised in the treatment of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. We compare their relative efficacy and safety using data from the STREAM trial; (2) Methods: Marginal structural models were used to balance differences in the baseline characteristics of participants receiving the STREAM control regimen containing either moxifloxacin or levofloxacin as this was not a randomised comparison. The difference in proportions between regimens was estimated for favourable outcome, any grade 3/4 adverse event, QTcF increase to ≥500 ms, QTcF increase from baseline by at least 60 ms, and any grade 3/4 adverse event excluding QT events, using weighted analyses; (3) Results: In efficacy analyses (n = 123), the weighted risk difference (moxifloxacin-levofloxacin, wRD) for a favourable outcome was -0.045 (-0.213, 0.123), p = 0.60. Similarly, estimates from the safety analyses (n = 127) showed no evidence of a difference between the fluoroquinolones, other than a suggestion of fewer QTcF increases from baseline on levofloxacin (wRD 0.160 (-0.026, 0.346), p = 0.091); (4) Conclusions: In this small dataset, we found no statistically significant difference in key efficacy or safety outcomes between the moxifloxacin- and levofloxacin-containing regimens; there was a suggestion that QTcF increases from baseline were fewer on levofloxacin.

T-wave morphology abnormalities in the STREAM stage 1 trial.

BACKGROUND: Shorter regimens for drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) have non-inferior efficacy compared with longer regimens, but QT prolongation is a concern. T-wave morphology abnormalities may be a predictor of QT prolongation. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: STREAM Stage 1 was a randomized controlled trial in rifampicin-resistant TB, comparing short and long regimens. All participants had regular ECGs. QT/QTcF prolongation (≥500 ms or increase in ≥60 ms from baseline) was more common on the short regimen which contained high-dose moxifloxacin and clofazimine. Blinded ECGs were selected from the baseline, early (weeks 1-4), and late (weeks 12-36) time points. T-wave morphology was categorized as normal or abnormal (notched, asymmetric, flat-wave, flat peak, or broad). Differences between groups were assessed using Chi-Square tests (paired/unpaired, as appropriate). RESULTS: Two-hundred participants with available ECGs at relevant times were analyzed (QT prolongation group n = 82; non-prolongation group n = 118). At baseline, 23% (45/200) of participants displayed abnormal T-waves, increasing to 45% (90/200, p < 0.001) at the late time point. Abnormalities were more common in participants allocated the Short regimen (75/117, 64%) than the Long (14/38, 36.8%, p = 0.003); these occurred prior to QT/QTcF ≥500 ms in 53% of the participants (Long 2/5; Short 14/25). CONCLUSIONS: T-wave abnormalities may help identify patients at risk of QT prolongation on DR-TB treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (CT.gov identifier: NCT02409290). Current Controlled Trial number, ISRCTN78372190.

Effects of hydroxychloroquine on immune activation and disease progression among HIV-infected patients not receiving antiretroviral therapy: a randomized controlled trial.

CONTEXT: Therapies to decrease immune activation might be of benefit in slowing HIV disease progression. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether hydroxychloroquine decreases immune activation and slows CD4 cell decline. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial performed at 10 HIV outpatient clinics in the United Kingdom between June 2008 and February 2011. The 83 patients enrolled had asymptomatic HIV infection, were not taking antiretroviral therapy, and had CD4 cell counts greater than 400 cells/µL. INTERVENTION: Hydroxychloroquine, 400 mg, or matching placebo once daily for 48 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was change in the proportion of activated CD8 cells (measured by the expression of CD38 and HLA-DR surface markers), with CD4 cell count and HIV viral load as secondary outcomes. Analysis was by intention to treat using mixed linear models. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in CD8 cell activation between the 2 groups (-4.8% and -4.2% in the hydroxychloroquine and placebo groups, respectively, at week 48; difference, -0.6%; 95% CI, -4.8% to 3.6%; P = .80). Decline in CD4 cell count was greater in the hydroxychloroquine than placebo group (-85 cells/µL vs -23 cells/µL at week 48; difference, -62 cells/µL; 95% CI, -115 to -8; P = .03). Viral load increased in the hydroxychloroquine group compared with placebo (0.61 log10 copies/mL vs 0.23 log10 copies/mL at week 48; difference, 0.38 log10 copies/mL; 95% CI, 0.13 to 0.63; P = .003). Antiretroviral therapy was started in 9 patients in the hydroxychloroquine group and 1 in the placebo group. Trial medication was well tolerated, but more patients reported influenza-like illness in the hydroxychloroquine group compared with the placebo group (29% vs 10%; P = .03). CONCLUSION: Among HIV-infected patients not taking antiretroviral therapy, the use of hydroxychloroquine compared with placebo did not reduce CD8 cell activation but did result in a greater decline in CD4 cell count and increased viral replication. TRIAL REGISTRATION: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN30019040.

Keeping up with the guidelines: design changes to the STREAM stage 2 randomised controlled non-inferiority trial for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis.

Results from the STREAM stage 1 trial showed that a 9-month regimen for patients with rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis was non-inferior to the 20-month regimen recommended by the 2011 WHO treatment guidelines. Similar levels of severe adverse events were reported on both regimens suggesting the need for further research to optimise treatment. Stage 2 of STREAM evaluates two additional short-course regimens, both of which include bedaquiline. Throughout stage 2 of STREAM, new drug choices and a rapidly changing treatment landscape have necessitated changes to the trial's design to ensure it remains ethical and relevant. This paper describes changes to the trial design to ensure that stage 2 continues to answer important questions. These changes include the early closure to recruitment of two trial arms and an adjustment to the definition of the primary endpoint. If the STREAM experimental regimens are shown to be non-inferior or superior to the stage 1 study regimen, this would represent an important contribution to evidence about potentially more tolerable and more efficacious MDR-TB regimens, and a welcome advance for patients with rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis and tuberculosis control programmes globally.Trial registration: ISRCTN ISRCTN18148631 . Registered 10 February 2016.

Impact of the N348I mutation in HIV-1 reverse transcriptase on nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance in non-subtype B HIV-1.

We investigated the effect of N348I alone and with M184V on nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) drug susceptibility and replicative capacity in B and non-B HIV-1 isolates. N348I reduced the susceptibility to all NNRTI drugs across subtypes. The replication capacity of all viruses in a variety of cell lines was impaired by N348I. Interestingly, the N348I and M184V double mutation compensated for the reduced NNRTI drug susceptibility observed in the N348I single mutant and marginally improved viral replicative capacity.

Viral rebound and emergence of drug resistance in the absence of viral load testing: a randomized comparison between zidovudine-lamivudine plus Nevirapine and zidovudine-lamivudine plus Abacavir.

BACKGROUND: We investigated virological response and the emergence of resistance in the Nevirapine or Abacavir (NORA) substudy of the Development of Antiretroviral Treatment in Africa (DART) trial. METHODS: Six hundred symptomatic antiretroviral-naive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults (CD4 cell count, <200 cells/mm(3)) from 2 Ugandan centers were randomized to receive zidovudine-lamivudine plus abacavir or nevirapine. Virology was performed retrospectively on stored plasma samples at selected time points. In patients with HIV RNA levels >1000 copies/mL, the residual activity of therapy was calculated as the reduction in HIV RNA level, compared with baseline. RESULTS: Overall, HIV RNA levels were lower in the nevirapine group than in the abacavir group at 24 and 48 weeks (P < .001), although no differences were observed at weeks 4 and 12. Virological responses were similar in the 2 treatment groups for baseline HIV RNA level <100,000 copies/mL. The mean residual activity at week 48 was higher for abacavir in the presence of the typically observed resistance pattern of thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs) and M184V (1.47 log(10) copies/mL) than for nevirapine with M184V and nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor mutations, whether accompanied by TAMs (0.96 log(10) copies/mL) or not (1.18 log(10) copies/mL). CONCLUSIONS: There was more extensive genotypic resistance in both treatment groups than is generally seen in resource-rich settings. However, significant residual activity was observed among patients with virological failure, particularly those receiving zidovudine-lamivudine plus abacavir.

A virological benefit from an induction/maintenance strategy: the Forte trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether the addition of a fourth drug for up to 32 weeks to a standard three-drug antiretroviral combination decreases the risk of virological failure without increasing toxicity in treatment-naive patients. DESIGN: Induction/maintenance (IM) therapy [two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) + one non-NRTI (NNRTI) + one protease inhibitor for 24-32 weeks until plasma HIV RNA viral load (VL) < or =50 copies/ml then two NRTIs + NNRTI] was compared with standard therapy (ST) (two NRTIs + NNRTI). The primary endpoint was virological failure: VL >50 copies/ml at 32 (and 24) weeks or subsequent rebound to >400 copies/ml. RESULTS: 122 (62 IM, 60 ST) participants were randomized and followed for a median of 81 weeks (IQR 64-145). 52% were asymptomatic; median CD4+ T-cell count was 160 x 10(6)/l (IQR 92-260) and median VL 98,830 copies/ml (IQR 37,500-241,290). In an intent-to-treat analysis, the proportion of participants with virological failure at or after 32 weeks was higher in the ST arm [26 (43%) versus 11 (18%), P = 0.002]. The mean decrease in VL at 48 weeks was 0.84 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.15, 1.53) log10 copies/ml greater in the IM arm (P = 0.02). There were no significant differences between the two arms in the change in CD4+ T-cell count from baseline to 48 weeks, the number of participants with adverse events or the frequency of progression to AIDS/death. Drug resistance at failure was detected less frequently in the IM arm. CONCLUSIONS: Starting antiretroviral therapy with an IM strategy improved virological outcomes compared with a three-drug regimen, without significantly increasing toxicity.

Gag-Protease Sequence Evolution Following Protease Inhibitor Monotherapy Treatment Failure in HIV-1 Viruses Circulating in East Africa.

Around 2.5 million HIV-infected individuals failing first-line therapy qualify for boosted protease inhibitor (bPI)-based second-line therapy globally. Major resistance mutations are rarely present at treatment failure in patients receiving bPI and the determinants of failure in these patients remain unknown. There is evidence that Gag can impact PI susceptibility. Here, we have sequenced Gag-Protease before and following failure in 23 patients in the SARA trial infected with subtypes A, C, and D viruses. Before bPI, significant variation in Protease and Gag was observed at positions previously associated with PI exposure and resistance including Gag mutations L449P, S451N, and L453P and Protease K20I and L63P. Following PI failure, previously described mutations in Protease and Gag were observed, including those at the cleavage sites such as R361K and P453L. However, the emergence of clear genetic determinants of therapy failure across patients was not observed. Larger Gag sequence datasets will be required to comprehensively identify mutational correlates of bPI failure across subtypes.

Prevalence, incidence, and associated risk factors of tuberculosis in children with HIV living in the UK and Ireland (CHIPS): a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is the most common serious co-infection in people living with HIV worldwide, but little is known about its incidence in HIV-infected children living in high-resource settings with low tuberculosis prevalence. We aimed to assess the incidence and prevalence of tuberculosis in children with HIV living in the UK and Ireland to understand rates, risk factors, and outcomes of the disease in this group. METHODS: We did an analysis of children enrolled in CHIPS, an observational multicentre cohort of children receiving HIV care in the UK and Ireland. We assessed characteristics and prevalence of tuberculosis at baseline, measured incidence of disease through the follow-up period using the CHIPS database, and calculated associated risk factors in these children with multivariable logistic and Cox regression models. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 1996, to Sept 18, 2014, data for 1848 children with 14 761 years of follow-up were reported to CHIPS. 57 (3%) children were diagnosed with tuberculosis: 29 children had tuberculosis at presentation (prevalent tuberculosis) and 29 had the disease diagnosed during follow-up (incident tuberculosis), including one child with recurrent tuberculosis events. Median age at diagnosis was 9 years (IQR 5-12). 25 (43%) children had pulmonary tuberculosis, 24 (41%) had extrapulmonary tuberculosis with or without pulmonary involvement, and the remainder (n=9; 16%) had unspecified-site tuberculosis. The overall incidence rate for the follow-up period was 196 cases per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 137-283). In our multivariable model, tuberculosis at presentation was associated with more severe WHO immunological stage at baseline (odds ratio 0·25, 95% CI 0·08-0·74; p=0·0331; for none vs severe) and being born abroad (odds ratio 0·28, 0·10-0·73; p=0·0036; for UK and Ireland vs abroad). Incident tuberculosis was associated with time-updated more severe WHO immunological stage (hazard ratio 0·15, 95% CI 0·06-0·41; p=0·0056; for none vs severe) and older age at baseline (1·11, 0·47-2·63; p=0·0027; for age >10 years vs 5-9 years). INTERPRETATION: Tuberculosis rates in HIV-infected children in the UK and Ireland were higher than those reported in the general paediatric population. Further study is warranted of tuberculosis screening and preventive treatment for children at high-risk of this disease to avoid morbidity and mortality in this population. FUNDING: NHS England, PENTA Foundation.

Adherence to prescribed antiretroviral therapy in human immunodeficiency virus-infected children in the PENTA 5 trial.

BACKGROUND: Most studies of adherence to highly active antiretroviral therapy in children have been retrospective or cross-sectional. Factors relating to the caregiver, the child and the medication are all considered to be important for good adherence. METHODS: Adherence with taking prescribed medication was assessed by questionnaires completed at 4, 12, 24 and 48 weeks by caregivers of previously untreated HIV-infected children participating in the PENTA 5 trial, which was designed to evaluate different dual nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor therapy combinations with and without the protease inhibitor nelfinavir. The effects of several factors on adherence and the effect of adherence on virologic suppression were assessed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Caregivers returned 266 questionnaires including at least 1 for 108 (84%) children in the trial. Nelfinavir was reported to be the most difficult drug to take (38% of questionnaires), but the difficulty decreased over time, P = 0.02. Comments on difficulties in taking and remembering drugs related to fear of disclosure and to unpleasant characteristics of the drugs. Full adherence was reported in 74% of questionnaires, did not change over time and was reported more frequently in children older than 10 years and those with symptomatic HIV disease. More children reporting full adherence achieved HIV RNA <400 copies/ml (e.g. at 48 weeks 79% vs. 50% reporting some nonadherence; overall P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Good adherence with taking prescribed medication was associated with virologic response. Social factors were important in explaining nonadherence.

High level of viral suppression and low switch rate to second-line antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected adult patients followed over five years: retrospective analysis of the DART trial.

UNLABELLED: In contrast to resource-rich countries, most HIV-infected patients in resource-limited countries receive treatment without virological monitoring. There are few long-term data, in this setting, on rates of viral suppression or switch to second-line antiretroviral therapy. The DART trial compared clinically driven monitoring (CDM) versus routine laboratory (CD4/haematology/biochemistry) and clinical monitoring (LCM) in HIV-infected adults initiating therapy. There was no virological monitoring in either study group during follow-up, but viral load was measured in Ugandan participants at trial closure. Two thousand three hundred and seventeen (2317) participants from this country initiated antiretroviral therapy with zidovudine/lamivudine plus tenofovir (n = 1717), abacavir (n = 300), or nevirapine (n = 300). Of 1896 (81.8%) participants who were alive and in follow-up at trial closure (median 5.1 years after therapy initiation), 1507 (79.5%) were on first-line and 389 (20.5%) on second-line antiretroviral therapy. The overall switch rate after the first year was 5.6 per 100 person-years; the rate was substantially higher in participants with low baseline CD4 counts (<50 cells/mm3). Among 1207 (80.1%) first-line participants with viral load measured, HIV RNA was <400 copies/ml in 963 (79.8%), 400-999 copies/ml in 37 (3.1%), 1,000-9,999 copies/ml in 110 (9.1%), and ≥10,000 copies/ml in 97 (8.0%). The proportion with HIV RNA <400 copies/ml was slightly lower (difference 7.1%, 95% CI 2.5 to 11.5%) in CDM (76.3%) than in LCM (83.4%). Among 252 (64.8%) second-line participants with viral load measured (median 2.3 years after switch), HIV RNA was <400 copies/ml in 226 (89.7%), with no difference between monitoring strategies. Low switch rates and high, sustained levels of viral suppression are achievable without viral load or CD4 count monitoring in the context of high-quality clinical care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN13968779.

A single CD4 test with 250 cells/mm3 threshold predicts viral suppression in HIV-infected adults failing first-line therapy by clinical criteria.

BACKGROUND: In low-income countries, viral load (VL) monitoring of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is rarely available in the public sector for HIV-infected adults or children. Using clinical failure alone to identify first-line ART failure and trigger regimen switch may result in unnecessary use of costly second-line therapy. Our objective was to identify CD4 threshold values to confirm clinically-determined ART failure when VL is unavailable. METHODS: 3316 HIV-infected Ugandan/Zimbabwean adults were randomised to first-line ART with Clinically-Driven (CDM, CD4s measured but blinded) or routine Laboratory and Clinical Monitoring (LCM, 12-weekly CD4s) in the DART trial. CD4 at switch and ART failure criteria (new/recurrent WHO 4, single/multiple WHO 3 event; LCM: CD4<100 cells/mm(3)) were reviewed in 361 LCM, 314 CDM participants who switched over median 5 years follow-up. Retrospective VLs were available in 368 (55%) participants. RESULTS: Overall, 265/361 (73%) LCM participants failed with CD4<100 cells/mm(3); only 7 (2%) switched with CD4≥250 cells/mm(3), four switches triggered by WHO events. Without CD4 monitoring, 207/314 (66%) CDM participants failed with WHO 4 events, and 77(25%)/30(10%) with single/multiple WHO 3 events. Failure/switching with single WHO 3 events was more likely with CD4≥250 cells/mm(3) (28/77; 36%) (p = 0.0002). CD4 monitoring reduced switching with viral suppression: 23/187 (12%) LCM versus 49/181 (27%) CDM had VL<400 copies/ml at failure/switch (p<0.0001). Amongst CDM participants with CD4<250 cells/mm(3) only 11/133 (8%) had VL<400 copies/ml, compared with 38/48 (79%) with CD4≥250 cells/mm(3) (p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: Multiple, but not single, WHO 3 events predicted first-line ART failure. A CD4 threshold 'tiebreaker' of ≥250 cells/mm(3) for clinically-monitored patients failing first-line could identify ∼80% with VL<400 copies/ml, who are unlikely to benefit from second-line. Targeting CD4s to single WHO stage 3 'clinical failures' would particularly avoid premature, costly switch to second-line ART.

Evolution of drug resistance during 48 weeks of zidovudine/lamivudine/tenofovir in the absence of real-time viral load monitoring.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the resistance mutations selected by a first-line regimen of zidovudine/lamivudine/tenofovir in the absence of real-time viral load monitoring. DESIGN: A substudy of 300 participants from the Development of Antiretroviral Therapy in Africa trial in Uganda and Zimbabwe, which compared managing antiretroviral therapy with and without laboratory monitoring. METHODS: Stored plasma samples from selected time points were assayed retrospectively for HIV-1 RNA. The pol gene in all baseline samples and those with HIV RNA >1000 copies per milliliter at weeks 24 and 48 were sequenced. RESULTS: The proportion with HIV RNA >1000 copies per milliliter increased from 15% at 24 weeks to 24% at 48 weeks. Eighteen of 31 (58%) genotyped samples at 24 weeks had ≥ 1 major nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-associated mutations compared with 41 of 47 (87%) at 48 weeks. Excluding 1 nonadherent patient, a mean of 2.0 (95% confidence interval: 1.3 to 2.8) thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs) developed between weeks 24 and 48 among 14 patients with HIV RNA >1000 copies per milliliter at both time points. K65R was detected in 8 of 63 (13%) patients and was negatively associated with number of TAMs (P = 0.01) but not viral subtype (P = 0.30). CONCLUSIONS: A high rate of acquisition of TAMs, but not of K65R, among patients with prolonged viraemia was observed. However, most patients were virologically suppressed at 48 weeks, and long-term clinical and immunological outcomes in the Development of Antiretroviral Therapy in Africa trial were favorable.

Interval-censored survival time data: confidence intervals for the non-parametric survivor function.

Survival data are described as interval censored when the failure time is not measured exactly but is known only to have occurred within a defined interval. In this paper, we describe and assess three methods for calculating pointwise confidence intervals for the non-parametric survivor function estimated from interval-censored data: the first based on the full information matrix, the second a modification of this approach involving deletion of rows and columns of the information matrix corresponding to zero estimates prior to inversion and the third based on likelihood ratio inference. In a simulation study the likelihood ratio method gave the most accurate confidence intervals with coverage consistently close to the nominal level of 95 per cent.