Pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis: genetic, environmental and random mechanisms.

BACKGROUND: The pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis (MS) requires both genetic factors and environmental events. The question remains, however, whether these factors and events completely describe the MS disease process. This question was addressed using the Canadian MS data, which includes 29 478 individuals, estimated to represent 65-83% of all Canadian patients with MS. METHOD: The 'genetically-susceptible' subset of the population, (G), includes everyone who has any non-zero life-time chance of developing MS, under some environmental conditions. A 'sufficient' environmental exposure, for any genetically-susceptible individual, includes every set of environmental conditions, each of which is 'sufficient', by itself, to cause MS in that person. This analysis incorporates many epidemiological parameters, involved in MS pathogenesis, only some of which are directly observable, and establishes 'plausible' value ranges for each parameter. Those parameter value combinations (ie, solutions) that fall within these plausible ranges are then determined. RESULTS: Only a small proportion of the population (≤52%) has any possibility of developing MS, regardless of any environmental conditions that they could experience. Moreover, some of these genetically-susceptible individuals, despite their experiencing a 'sufficient' environmental exposure, will still not develop disease. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis explicitly includes all of those genetic factors and environmental events (including their interactions), which are necessary for MS pathogenesis, regardless of whether these factors, events and interactions are known, suspected or as yet unrecognised. Nevertheless, in addition, a 'truly' random mechanism also seems to play a critical role in disease pathogenesis. This observation provides empirical evidence, which undermines the widely-held deterministic view of nature. Moreover, both sexes seem to share a similar genetic and environmental disease basis. If so, then it is this random mechanism, which is primarily responsible for the currently-observed differences in MS disease expression between susceptible women and susceptible men.

Spinal Cord Atrophy Predicts Progressive Disease in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: A major challenge in multiple sclerosis (MS) research is the understanding of silent progression and Progressive MS. Using a novel method to accurately capture upper cervical cord area from legacy brain MRI scans we aimed to study the role of spinal cord and brain atrophy for silent progression and conversion to secondary progressive disease (SPMS). METHODS: From a single-center observational study, all RRMS (n = 360) and SPMS (n = 47) patients and 80 matched controls were evaluated. RRMS patient subsets who converted to SPMS (n = 54) or silently progressed (n = 159), respectively, during the 12-year observation period were compared to clinically matched RRMS patients remaining RRMS (n = 54) or stable (n = 147), respectively. From brain MRI, we assessed the value of brain and spinal cord measures to predict silent progression and SPMS conversion. RESULTS: Patients who developed SPMS showed faster cord atrophy rates (-2.19%/yr) at least 4 years before conversion compared to their RRMS matches (-0.88%/yr, p < 0.001). Spinal cord atrophy rates decelerated after conversion (-1.63%/yr, p = 0.010) towards those of SPMS patients from study entry (-1.04%). Each 1% faster spinal cord atrophy rate was associated with 69% (p < 0.0001) and 53% (p < 0.0001) shorter time to silent progression and SPMS conversion, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Silent progression and conversion to secondary progressive disease are predominantly related to cervical cord atrophy. This atrophy is often present from the earliest disease stages and predicts the speed of silent progression and conversion to Progressive MS. Diagnosis of SPMS is rather a late recognition of this neurodegenerative process than a distinct disease phase. ANN NEUROL 2022;91:268-281.

An electronic, unsupervised patient-reported Expanded Disability Status Scale for multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: In persons with multiple sclerosis (MS), the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) is the criterion standard for assessing disability, but its in-person nature constrains patient participation in research and clinical assessments. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scalable, electronic, unsupervised patient-reported EDSS (ePR-EDSS) that would capture MS-related disability across the spectrum of severity. METHODS: We enrolled 136 adult MS patients, split into a preliminary testing Cohort 1 (n = 50), and a validation Cohort 2 (n = 86), which was evenly distributed across EDSS groups. Each patient completed an ePR-EDSS either immediately before or after a MS clinician's Neurostatus EDSS evaluation. RESULTS: In Cohort 2, mean age was 50.6 years (range = 26-80) and median EDSS was 3.5 (interquartile range (IQR) = [1.5, 5.5]). The ePR-EDSS and EDSS agreed within 1-point for 86% of examinations; kappa for agreement within 1-point was 0.85 (p < 0.001). The correlation coefficient between the two measures was 0.91 (<0.001). DISCUSSION: The ePR-EDSS was highly correlated with EDSS, with good agreement even at lower EDSS levels. For clinical care, the ePR-EDSS could enable the longitudinal monitoring of a patient's disability. For research, it provides a valid and rapid measure across the entire spectrum of disability and permits broader participation with fewer in-person assessments.

Silent progression in disease activity-free relapsing multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Rates of worsening and evolution to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) may be substantially lower in actively treated patients compared to natural history studies from the pretreatment era. Nonetheless, in our recently reported prospective cohort, more than half of patients with relapsing MS accumulated significant new disability by the 10th year of follow-up. Notably, "no evidence of disease activity" at 2 years did not predict long-term stability. Here, we determined to what extent clinical relapses and radiographic evidence of disease activity contribute to long-term disability accumulation. METHODS: Disability progression was defined as an increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) of 1.5, 1.0, or 0.5 (or greater) from baseline EDSS = 0, 1.0-5.0, and 5.5 or higher, respectively, assessed from baseline to year 5 (±1 year) and sustained to year 10 (±1 year). Longitudinal analysis of relative brain volume loss used a linear mixed model with sex, age, disease duration, and HLA-DRB1*15:01 as covariates. RESULTS: Relapses were associated with a transient increase in disability over 1-year intervals (p = 0.012) but not with confirmed disability progression (p = 0.551). Relative brain volume declined at a greater rate among individuals with disability progression compared to those who remained stable (p < 0.05). INTERPRETATION: Long-term worsening is common in relapsing MS patients, is largely independent of relapse activity, and is associated with accelerated brain atrophy. We propose the term silent progression to describe the insidious disability that accrues in many patients who satisfy traditional criteria for relapsing-remitting MS. Ann Neurol 2019;85:653-666.

Predictive validity of NEDA in the 16- and 21-year follow-up from the pivotal trial of interferon beta-1b.

BACKGROUND: Long-term follow-up from the randomized trial of interferon beta-1b (IFNB-1b) permitted the assessment of different definitions of no evidence of disease activity (NEDA) for predicting long-term outcome in multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: To examine the predictive validity of different NEDA definitions. METHODS: Predictive validity for negative disability outcomes (NDOs) at 16 years and survival at 21 years post-randomization were assessed. NEDA in the first 2 years was defined as follows: clinical NEDA: no relapses or Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression from baseline to Year 2; NEDA-3a: no relapses, no confirmed ⩾1-point EDSS progression, and no new T2-active lesions; NEDA-3b: no relapses, no EDSS progression, and no increase in T2 burden of disease (T2-BOD); and NEDA-4: no relapses, no EDSS progression, and no increase in T2-BOD or atrophy. NDOs were defined as death, need for wheelchair, EDSS ⩾6, or progressive MS. RESULTS: A total of 245 and 371 patients were evaluated at 16 and 21 years, respectively. Clinical NEDA predicted NDOs ( p = 0.0029), as did baseline EDSS ( p < 0.0001), baseline T2-BOD ( p < 0.0001), and change in T2-BOD ( p = 0.0033). IFNB-1b treatment ( p = 0.0251), relapse rate in the 2 years before study start ( p = 0.0260), T2-BOD at baseline ( p = 0.0014), and change in T2-BOD ( p = 0.0129) predicted survival at 21 years. CONCLUSION: Clinical NEDA predicted long-term disability outcome. By contrast, definitions of NEDA that included on-therapy changes in magnetic resonance imaging variables did not increase the predictive validity.

Harnessing electronic medical records to advance research on multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Electronic medical records (EMR) data are increasingly used in research, but no studies have yet evaluated similarity between EMR and research-quality data and between characteristics of an EMR multiple sclerosis (MS) population and known natural MS history. OBJECTIVES: To (1) identify MS patients in an EMR system and extract clinical data, (2) compare EMR-extracted data with gold-standard research data, and (3) compare EMR MS population characteristics to expected MS natural history. METHODS: Algorithms were implemented to identify MS patients from the University of California San Francisco EMR, de-identify the data and extract clinical variables. EMR-extracted data were compared to research cohort data in a subset of patients. RESULTS: We identified 4142 MS patients via search of the EMR and extracted their clinical data with good accuracy. EMR and research values showed good concordance for Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), timed-25-foot walk, and subtype. We replicated several expected MS epidemiological features from MS natural history including higher EDSS for progressive versus relapsing-remitting patients and for male versus female patients and increased EDSS with age at examination and disease duration. CONCLUSION: Large real-world cohorts algorithmically extracted from the EMR can expand opportunities for MS clinical research.

Long-term evolution of multiple sclerosis disability in the treatment era.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the accrual of long-term disability in a cohort of actively treated multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and to assess whether clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data used in clinical trials have long-term prognostic value. METHODS: This is a prospective study of 517 actively managed MS patients enrolled at a single center. RESULTS: More than 91% of patients were retained, with data ascertained up to 10 years after the baseline visit. At this last assessment, neurologic disability as measured by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) was stable or improved compared to baseline in 41% of patients. Subjects with no evidence of disease activity (NEDA) by clinical and MRI criteria during the first 2 years had long-term outcomes that were no different from those of the cohort as a whole. 25-OH vitamin D serum levels were inversely associated with short-term MS disease activity; however, these levels had no association with long-term disability. At a median time of 16.8 years after disease onset, 10.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.2-14%) of patients reached an EDSS ≥ 6, and 18.1% (95% CI = 13.5-22.5%) evolved from relapsing MS to secondary progressive MS (SPMS). INTERPRETATION: Rates of worsening and evolution to SPMS were substantially lower when compared to earlier natural history studies. Notably, the NEDA 2-year endpoint was not a predictor of long-term stability. Finally, the data call into question the utility of annual MRI assessments as a treat-to-target approach for MS care. Ann Neurol 2016;80:499-510.

A comparative analysis of Patient-Reported Expanded Disability Status Scale tools.

BACKGROUND: Patient-Reported Expanded Disability Status Scale (PREDSS) tools are an attractive alternative to the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) during long term or geographically challenging studies, or in pressured clinical service environments. OBJECTIVES: Because the studies reporting these tools have used different metrics to compare the PREDSS and EDSS, we undertook an individual patient data level analysis of all available tools. METHODS: Spearman's rho and the Bland-Altman method were used to assess correlation and agreement respectively. RESULTS: A systematic search for validated PREDSS tools covering the full EDSS range identified eight such tools. Individual patient data were available for five PREDSS tools. Excellent correlation was observed between EDSS and PREDSS with all tools. A higher level of agreement was observed with increasing levels of disability. In all tools, the 95% limits of agreement were greater than the minimum EDSS difference considered to be clinically significant. However, the intra-class coefficient was greater than that reported for EDSS raters of mixed seniority. The visual functional system was identified as the most significant predictor of the PREDSS-EDSS difference. CONCLUSION: This analysis will (1) enable researchers and service providers to make an informed choice of PREDSS tool, depending on their individual requirements, and (2) facilitate improvement of current PREDSS tools.

The nature of genetic susceptibility to multiple sclerosis: constraining the possibilities.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological observations regarding certain population-wide parameters (e.g., disease-prevalence, recurrence-risk in relatives, gender predilections, and the distribution of common genetic-variants) place important constraints on the possibilities for the genetic-basis underlying susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: Using very broad range-estimates for the different population-wide epidemiological parameters, a mathematical model can help elucidate the nature and the magnitude of these constraints. RESULTS: For MS no more than 8.5 % of the population can possibly be in the "genetically-susceptible" subset (defined as having a life-time MS-probability at least as high as the overall population average). Indeed, the expected MS-probability for this subset is more than 12 times that for every other person of the population who is not in this subset. Moreover, provided that those genetically susceptible persons (genotypes), who carry the well-established MS susceptibility allele (DRB1*1501), are equally or more likely to get MS than those susceptible persons, who don't carry this allele, then at least 84 % of MS-cases must come from this "genetically susceptible" subset. Finally, because men, compared to women, are at least as likely (and possibly more likely) to be susceptible, it can be demonstrated that women are more responsive to the environmental factors that are involved in MS-pathogenesis (whatever these are) and, thus, susceptible women are more likely actually to develop MS than susceptible men. Finally, in contrast to genetic susceptibility, more than 70 % of men (and likely also women) must have an environmental experience (including all of the necessary factors), which is sufficient to produce MS in a susceptible individual. CONCLUSIONS: As a result, because of these constraints, it is possible to distinguish two classes of persons, indicating either that MS can be caused by two fundamentally different pathophysiological mechanisms or that the large majority of the population is at no risk of the developing this disease regardless of their environmental experience. Moreover, although environmental-factors would play a critical role in both mechanisms (if both exist), there is no reason to expect that these factors are the same (or even similar) between the two.

Haplotype-based approach to known MS-associated regions increases the amount of explained risk.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS), using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), have yielded 110 non-human leucocyte antigen genomic regions that are associated with multiple sclerosis (MS). Despite this large number of associations, however, only 28% of MS-heritability can currently be explained. Here we compare the use of multi-SNP-haplotypes to the use of single-SNPs as alternative methods to describe MS genetic risk. SNP-haplotypes (of various lengths from 1 up to 15 contiguous SNPs) were constructed at each of the 110 previously identified, MS-associated, genomic regions. Even after correcting for the larger number of statistical comparisons made when using the haplotype-method, in 32 of the regions, the SNP-haplotype based model was markedly more significant than the single-SNP based model. By contrast, in no region was the single-SNP based model similarly more significant than the SNP-haplotype based model. Moreover, when we included the 932 MS-associated SNP-haplotypes (that we identified from 102 regions) as independent variables into a logistic linear model, the amount of MS-heritability, as assessed by Nagelkerke's R-squared, was 38%, which was considerably better than 29%, which was obtained by using only single-SNPs. This study demonstrates that SNP-haplotypes can be used to fine-map the genetic associations within regions of interest previously identified by single-SNP GWAS. Moreover, the amount of the MS genetic risk explained by the SNP-haplotype associations in the 110 MS-associated genomic regions was considerably greater when using SNP-haplotypes than when using single-SNPs. Also, the use of SNP-haplotypes can lead to the discovery of new regions of interest, which have not been identified by a single-SNP GWAS.

Spinal cord gray matter atrophy correlates with multiple sclerosis disability.

OBJECTIVE: In multiple sclerosis (MS), cerebral gray matter (GM) atrophy correlates more strongly than white matter (WM) atrophy with disability. The corresponding relationships in the spinal cord (SC) are unknown due to technical limitations in assessing SC GM atrophy. Using phase-sensitive inversion recovery (PSIR) magnetic resonance imaging, we determined the association of the SC GM and SC WM areas with MS disability and disease type. METHODS: A total of 113 MS patients and 20 healthy controls were examined at 3T with a PSIR sequence acquired at the C2/C3 disk level. Two independent, clinically masked readers measured the cord WM and GM areas. Correlations between cord areas and Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) were determined. Differences in areas between groups were assessed with age and sex as covariates. RESULTS: Relapsing MS (RMS) patients showed smaller SC GM areas than age- and sex-matched controls (p = 0.008) without significant differences in SC WM areas. Progressive MS patients showed smaller SC GM and SC WM areas compared to RMS patients (all p ≤ 0.004). SC GM, SC WM, and whole cord areas inversely correlated with EDSS (rho: -0.60, -0.32, -0.42, respectively; all p ≤ 0.001). The SC GM area was the strongest correlate of disability in multivariate models including brain GM and WM volumes, fluid-attenuated inversion recovery lesion load, T1 lesion load, SC WM area, number of SC T2 lesions, age, sex, and disease duration. Brain and spinal GM independently contributed to EDSS. INTERPRETATION: SC GM atrophy is detectable in vivo in the absence of WM atrophy in RMS. It is more pronounced in progressive MS than RMS and contributes more to patient disability than SC WM or brain GM atrophy.

Precision medicine in chronic disease management: The multiple sclerosis BioScreen.

We present a precision medicine application developed for multiple sclerosis (MS): the MS BioScreen. This new tool addresses the challenges of dynamic management of a complex chronic disease; the interaction of clinicians and patients with such a tool illustrates the extent to which translational digital medicine-that is, the application of information technology to medicine-has the potential to radically transform medical practice. We introduce 3 key evolutionary phases in displaying data to health care providers, patients, and researchers: visualization (accessing data), contextualization (understanding the data), and actionable interpretation (real-time use of the data to assist decision making). Together, these form the stepping stones that are expected to accelerate standardization of data across platforms, promote evidence-based medicine, support shared decision making, and ultimately lead to improved outcomes.

The use of interferon Beta and glatiramer acetate in multiple sclerosis.

The modern era of the therapy for multiple sclerosis began in the 1990s with introduction of interferon beta and glatiramer acetate. Now 20 years since the introduction of these disease modifying therapies, several alternatives have become available. Although, in many cases, these new agents seem especially effective, there is little head-to-head trial data to actually compare the efficacy of the newer agents to that of the older. Moreover, there is no doubt that these older agents are both effective and very safe - something which has not always proven true about the newer therapies. Consequently, there will continue to be a place for these injectable treatments, even as we move into an era where physicians are confronted with many treatment possibilities.

Multiple sclerosis: Exploring the limits and implications of genetic and environmental susceptibility.

OBJECTIVE: To explore and describe the basis and implications of genetic and environmental susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS) using the Canadian population-based data. BACKGROUND: Certain parameters of MS-epidemiology are directly observable (e.g., the recurrence-risk of MS in siblings and twins, the proportion of women among MS patients, the population-prevalence of MS, and the time-dependent changes in the sex-ratio). By contrast, other parameters can only be inferred from the observed parameters (e.g., the proportion of the population that is "genetically susceptible", the proportion of women among susceptible individuals, the probability that a susceptible individual will experience an environment "sufficient" to cause MS, and if they do, the probability that they will develop the disease). DESIGN/METHODS: The "genetically susceptible" subset (G) of the population (Z) is defined to include everyone with any non-zero life-time chance of developing MS under some environmental conditions. The value for each observed and non-observed epidemiological parameter is assigned a "plausible" range. Using both a Cross-sectional Model and a Longitudinal Model, together with established parameter relationships, we explore, iteratively, trillions of potential parameter combinations and determine those combinations (i.e., solutions) that fall within the acceptable range for both the observed and non-observed parameters. RESULTS: Both Models and all analyses intersect and converge to demonstrate that probability of genetic-susceptibitly, P(G), is limited to only a fraction of the population {i.e., P(G) ≤ 0.52)} and an even smaller fraction of women {i.e., P(G│F) < 0.32)}. Consequently, most individuals (particularly women) have no chance whatsoever of developing MS, regardless of their environmental exposure. However, for any susceptible individual to develop MS, requires that they also experience a "sufficient" environment. We use the Canadian data to derive, separately, the exponential response-curves for men and women that relate the increasing likelihood of developing MS to an increasing probability that a susceptible individual experiences an environment "sufficient" to cause MS. As the probability of a "sufficient" exposure increases, we define, separately, the limiting probability of developing MS in men (c) and women (d). These Canadian data strongly suggest that: (c < d ≤ 1). If so, this observation establishes both that there must be a "truly" random factor involved in MS pathogenesis and that it is this difference, rather than any difference in genetic or environmental factors, which primarily accounts for the penetrance difference between women and men. CONCLUSIONS: The development of MS (in an individual) requires both that they have an appropriate genotype (which is uncommon in the population) and that they have an environmental exposure "sufficient" to cause MS given their genotype. Nevertheless, the two principal findings of this study are that: P(G) ≤ 0.52)} and: (c < d ≤ 1). Threfore, even when the necessary genetic and environmental factors, "sufficient" for MS pathogenesis, co-occur for an individual, they still may or may not develop MS. Consequently, disease pathogenesis, even in this circumstance, seems to involve an important element of chance. Moreover, the conclusion that the macroscopic process of disease development for MS includes a "truly" random element, if replicated (either for MS or for other complex diseases), provides empiric evidence that our universe is non-deterministic.

Remote Observational Research for Multiple Sclerosis: A Natural Experiment.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Prospective, deeply phenotyped research cohorts monitoring individuals with chronic neurologic conditions, such as multiple sclerosis (MS), depend on continued participant engagement. The COVID-19 pandemic restricted in-clinic research activities, threatening this longitudinal engagement, but also forced adoption of televideo-enabled care. This offered a natural experiment in which to analyze key dimensions of remote research: (1) comparison of remote vs in-clinic visit costs from multiple perspectives and (2) comparison of the remote with in-clinic measures in cross-sectional and longitudinal disability evaluations. METHODS: Between March 2020 and December 2021, 207 MS cohort participants underwent hybrid in-clinic and virtual research visits; 96 contributed 100 "matched visits," that is, in-clinic (Neurostatus-Expanded Disability Status Scale [NS-EDSS]) and remote (televideo-enabled EDSS [tele-EDSS]; electronic patient-reported EDSS [ePR-EDSS]) evaluations. Clinical, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics of participants were collected. RESULTS: The costs of remote visits were lower than in-clinic visits for research investigators (facilities, personnel, parking, participant compensation) but also for participants (travel, caregiver time) and carbon footprint (p < 0.05 for each). Median cohort EDSS was similar between the 3 modalities (NS-EDSS: 2, tele-EDSS: 1.5, ePR-EDSS: 2, range 0.6.5); the remote evaluations were each noninferior to the NS-EDSS within ±0.5 EDSS point (TOST for noninferiority, p < 0.01 for each). Furthermore, year to year, the % of participants with worsening/stable/improved EDSS scores was similar, whether each annual evaluation used NS-EDSS or whether it switched from NS-EDSS to tele-EDSS. DISCUSSION: Altogether, the current findings suggest that remote evaluations can reduce the costs of research participation for patients, while providing a reasonable evaluation of disability trajectory longitudinally. This could inform the design of remote research that is more inclusive of diverse participants.

Variability in detection and quantification of interferon ß-1b-induced neutralizing antibodies.

BACKGROUND: Interferon-beta (IFNB) therapy for multiple sclerosis can lead to the induction of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) against IFNB. Various methods are used for detection and quantification of NAbs. METHODS: Blood samples from 125 IFNB-1b-treated patients, which were tested NAb negative or NAb positive after conclusion of a clinical study, were retested three years after first being assessed in four different laboratories that offer routine NAb testing to practicing neurologists. The myxovirus protein A (MxA) induction assay, the cytopathic effect (CPE) assay (two laboratories), or the luciferase assay were used. Intra- and inter-laboratory agreement between assays with respect to NAb detection and NAb titer quantification were evaluated. RESULTS: High agreement for NAb detection (kappa coefficient, 0.86) and for titer levels was observed for the intra-laboratory comparison in the laboratory using the MxA induction assay performed three years ago and now. A similarly high agreement for NAb detection (kappa coefficient, 0.87) and for titer quantification was noted for the MxA assay of this laboratory with one of two laboratories using the CPE assay. All other inter-laboratory comparisons showed kappa values between 0.57 and 0.68 and remarkable differences in individual titer levels. CONCLUSIONS: There are considerable differences in the detection and quantification of IFNB-induced NAbs among laboratories offering NAb testing for clinical practice using different assay methods. It is important that these differences are considered when interpreting NAb results for clinical decision-making and when developing general recommendations for potentially clinically meaningful NAb titer levels.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies novel multiple sclerosis susceptibility loci.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a 1-stage meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility and to explore functional consequences of new susceptibility loci. METHODS: We synthesized 7 MS GWAS. Each data set was imputed using HapMap phase II, and a per single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) meta-analysis was performed across the 7 data sets. We explored RNA expression data using a quantitative trait analysis in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of 228 subjects with demyelinating disease. RESULTS: We meta-analyzed 2,529,394 unique SNPs in 5,545 cases and 12,153 controls. We identified 3 novel susceptibility alleles: rs170934(T) at 3p24.1 (odds ratio [OR], 1.17; p = 1.6 × 10(-8)) near EOMES, rs2150702(G) in the second intron of MLANA on chromosome 9p24.1 (OR, 1.16; p = 3.3 × 10(-8)), and rs6718520(A) in an intergenic region on chromosome 2p21, with THADA as the nearest flanking gene (OR, 1.17; p = 3.4 × 10(-8)). The 3 new loci do not have a strong cis effect on RNA expression in PBMCs. Ten other susceptibility loci had a suggestive p < 1 × 10(-6) , some of these loci have evidence of association in other inflammatory diseases (ie, IL12B, TAGAP, PLEK, and ZMIZ1). INTERPRETATION: We have performed a meta-analysis of GWAS in MS that more than doubles the size of previous gene discovery efforts and highlights 3 novel MS susceptibility loci. These and additional loci with suggestive evidence of association are excellent candidates for further investigations to refine and validate their role in the genetic architecture of MS.

Relationship between early clinical characteristics and long term disability outcomes: 16 year cohort study (follow-up) of the pivotal interferon ß-1b trial in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating the long term benefit of therapy in multiple sclerosis (MS) is challenging. Although randomised controlled trials (RCTs) demonstrate therapeutic benefits on short term outcomes, the relationship between these outcomes and late disability is not established. METHODS: In a patient cohort from the pivotal interferon ß-1b trial, the value of clinical and MRI measures were analysed, both at baseline and during the RCT, for predicting long term physical and cognitive outcome. RESULTS: Baseline disability correlated with both physical (R(2)=0.22; p<0.0001) and cognitive (R(2)=0.12; p<0.0001) outcome after 16 years. Accrual of disability during the RCT (R(2)=0.12; p<0.0001) and annualised relapse rates during the trial correlated with physical outcome (R(2)=0.12; p<0.0001) but not with cognition. In contrast, baseline MRI measures of atrophy and lesion burden correlated with cognitive (R(2)=0.21; p<0.0001), but not with physical, outcome. Accumulation of plaque burden measured by MRI did not correlate with late physical disability or with cognitive outcome. Multivariate regression analysis using stepwise elimination demonstrated that baseline variables contributed independently to predicting long term outcomes while trial outcome variables contributed little. Overall, and considerably dependent on baseline measures, the models developed by this method accounted for approximately half of the variance in long term cognitive and disability outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Although on-trial change in some short term clinical measures correlated with long term physical and disability outcomes, the proportion of the variance explained by single commonly employed on-study variables was often small or undetectable. Better correlations were observed for several baseline measures, suggesting that long term outcome in MS may be largely determined early in the disease course. Trial registration number http://Clinical Trials.gov, study registration NCT00206635.

Neutralizing antibodies to interferon beta-1b multiple sclerosis: a clinico-radiographic paradox in the BEYOND trial.

BACKGROUND: The frequency and impact of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) to interferon beta-1b (IFNß-1b) on clinical and radiographic outcomes is controversial. OBJECTIVE: To assess NAb impact in the BEYOND study. METHODS: 2244 patients were randomized (2:2:1) to receive IFNß-1b, either 250 or 500 µg, or glatiramer acetate, 20 mg, and observed for 2-3.5 years. NAb titers were determined every 6 months. A titer ≥20 NU/ml was considered NAb positive. Efficacy was compared between NAb-positive and NAb-negative patients, using comprehensive statistical analyses, taking into account the delayed appearance of NAbs, the time-dependent changes in the relapse rate, spontaneous reversions to NAb-negative status, NAb-titer level, and also adjusting for baseline factors. RESULTS: In the IFNß-1b 250 µg group, NAb-positive titers were detected (≥ once) in 319 patients (37.0%); of these, 112 (35.1%) reverted to NAb-negative status. In the IFNß-1b 500 µg group, 340 patients (40.7%) became NAb-positive and 119 (35.0%) reverted to NAb-negative status. In both IFNß groups, especially the 250 µg arm, NAb-positive status was not associated with a convincing impact on any clinical outcome measure by any statistical analysis. By contrast, in both IFNß groups, NAbs were associated with a very consistent deleterious impact on most MRI outcomes. CONCLUSION: There was a notable dissociation between the impact of NAbs on MRI and clinical outcomes. On MRI measures, the impact was consistent and convincing, whereas on clinical measures a negative impact of NAbs was not found. The basis for this clinico-radiographic paradox is unknown but it suggests that the relationship between NAbs and the therapeutic effects of IFNß-1b is complex.