Risk scoring for time to end-stage knee osteoarthritis: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: This study constructs a risk score for patients' progression to end-stage knee osteoarthritis (OA) within 4 years. DESIGN: The Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) was a longitudinal study of the onset and progression of knee OA. Using a recent definition of end-stage knee OA, we implement interval-censored survival forests to select predictors of this endpoint. We fit an interval-censored Cox model for time to end-stage knee OA, using the selected predictors. The risk score is the Cox model's fitted linear combination of the nine selected baseline structural and symptomatic knee OA variables. RESULTS: We fit our models on a training set of 2,701 patients, and we evaluate on an independent test set of 1,436 patients. On the test sample, we observe a concordance index of 0.86 between risk score and time to end-stage, AUC of 0.87 for predicting end-stage within 24, 36, and 48 months, and positive predictive values that increase with the risk score. This risk stratification algorithm could enrich clinical trial patient enrollment. By enrolling test sample patients with scores above a threshold, a trial could have included 91% of test set patients who reach end-stage within 4 years while only enrolling 45% of the test sample. CONCLUSION: Using statistical methods, we construct and validate an interpretable risk score for time to end-stage knee OA. This score can help disease-modifying OA treatment developers to select candidates with the highest risk of fast-progressing knee OA.

Preventive intervention for living donor psychosocial outcomes: feasibility and efficacy in a randomized controlled trial.

There are no evidence-based interventions to prevent adverse psychosocial consequences after living donation. We conducted a single-site randomized controlled trial to examine the postdonation impact of a preventive intervention utilizing motivational interviewing (MI) to target a major risk factor for poor psychosocial outcomes, residual ambivalence (i.e. lingering hesitation and uncertainty) about donating. Of 184 prospective kidney or liver donors, 131 screened positive for ambivalence; 113 were randomized to (a) the MI intervention, (b) an active comparison condition (health education) or (c) standard care only before donation. Ambivalence was reassessed postintervention (before donation). Primary trial outcomes-psychosocial variables in somatic, psychological and family interpersonal relationship domains-were assessed at 6 weeks and 3 months postdonation. MI subjects showed the greatest decline in ambivalence (p = 0.050). On somatic outcomes, by 3 months postdonation MI subjects reported fewer physical symptoms (p = 0.038), lower rates of fatigue (p = 0.021) and pain (p = 0.016), shorter recovery times (p = 0.041) and fewer unexpected medical problems (p = 0.023). Among psychological and interpersonal outcomes, they had a lower rate of anxiety symptoms (p = 0.046) and fewer unexpected family-related problems (p = 0.045). They did not differ on depression, feelings about donation or family relationship quality. The findings suggest that the intervention merits testing in a larger, multisite trial.

Protection of rhesus macaques against disease progression from pathogenic SHIV-89.6PD by vaccination with phage-displayed HIV-1 epitopes.

The antigenic polymorphism of HIV-1 is a major obstacle in developing an effective vaccine. Accordingly, we screened random peptide libraries (RPLs) displayed on phage with antibodies from HIV-infected individuals and identified an array of HIV-specific epitopes that behave as antigenic mimics of conformational epitopes of gp120 and gp41 proteins. We report that the selected epitopes are shared by a collection of HIV-1 isolates of clades A-F. The phage-borne epitopes are immunogenic in rhesus macaques, where they elicit envelope-specific antibody responses. Upon intravenous challenge with 60 MID50 of pathogenic SHIV-89.6PD, all monkeys became infected; however, in contrast to the naive and mock-immunized monkeys, four of five mimotope-immunized monkeys experienced lower levels of peak viremia, followed by viral set points of undetectable or transient levels of viremia and a mild decline of CD4+ T cells, and were protected from progression to AIDS-like illness. These results provide a new approach to the design of broadly protective HIV-1 vaccines.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in CD4+ T lymphocytes genetically deficient in LFA-1: LFA-1 is required for HIV-mediated cell fusion but not for viral transmission.

In the present study, we demonstrated that expression of the LFA-1 molecule is necessary for cell fusion and syncytia formation in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected CD4+ T lymphocytes. In contrast, the lack of expression of LFA-1 does not influence significantly cell-to-cell transmission of HIV. In fact, LFA-1- T lymphocytes obtained from a leukocyte adhesion deficiency patient were unable to fuse and form syncytia when infected with HIV-1 or HIV-2, despite the fact that efficiency of HIV infection (i.e., virus entry, HIV spreading, and levels of virus replication) was comparable with that observed in LFA-1+ T lymphocytes. In addition, we provide evidence that LFA-1 by mediating cell fusion contributes to the depletion of HIV-infected CD4+ T lymphocytes in vitro.

Geomagnetic Variations in the Eastern United States: avidence for a Highly Conducting Lower Crust?

Temporal geomagnetic variations, recorded at ten stations across the eastcentral United States, are interpreted in terms of the electrical conductivity structure of the earth beneath this region. The results are surprising and suggest that the lower crust is highly conducting, having distinct lateral variations in conductivity beneath the Appalachian Mountains.

Control of SIV rebound through structured treatment interruptions during early infection.

In a randomized controlled trial with acute simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)-infected macaques, both highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and HAART with fixed-schedule structured treatment interruption (STI-HAART; alternating 3 weeks on and 3 weeks off therapy) suppressed viral load. In the STI-HAART group, T cell virus-specific immune response (VIR) and control of viral rebound increased concurrently during subsequent interruptions. In contrast, VIR did not increase and SIV rebounded after permanent treatment withdrawal in all animals on continuous HAART. Fixed-schedule STI-HAART appears to be an effective alternative to continuous HAART for the early treatment of retroviral infection.

Retroviruses that express different ras mutants cause different types of tumors in chickens.

We have used replication-competent retroviral vectors to express avian and murine ras genes in cultured chick embryo fibroblasts (CEF) and in chickens. Since the viral vectors are identical, it is possible to compare the oncogenic potential of the ras genes directly. The normal (12 gly) form of chicken c-Ha-ras is not oncogenic in vivo, nor does high-level expression transform CEF. Expression of murine v-ras or modified forms of chicken c-Ha-ras with either lysine or glutamine at position 12 transforms CEF and causes tumors in birds. However, the oncogenic potential of the transforming ras genes is different; the viruses that express the genes with lysine and glutamine at position 12 cause a distinct spectrum of tumors.

Methodologic issues in maintenance therapy clinical trials.

In the early 1980s, the National Institute of Mental Health supported a multicenter, randomized, controlled, clinical trial on unipolar and bipolar disorder to evaluate the comparative efficacies of lithium carbonate, imipramine hydrochloride, a lithium-imipramine combination, and placebo in preventing the recurrence of affective disorders. The objective of this report is to present a reanalysis of the relative efficacies of these treatments in patients with unipolar disorder to focus attention on general issues related to the design and conduct of maintenance therapy trials. We show that the earlier conclusions of that study that imipramine and the combination therapy are more effective than lithium and placebo in preventing the recurrence of depression in unipolar patients can be accounted for by alternative explanations that are a consequence of the design of the study. Our findings have important implications for the design, conduct, and interpretation of results of maintenance therapy clinical trials in general.

Methodology in psychiatric research. Report on the 1986 MacArthur Foundation Network I Methodology Institute.

This report discusses many of the issues raised during a two-day institute that focused on methodological problems encountered in psychiatric research. The topics range from the problems with psychiatric diagnosis and measurement to sampling issues and biases to specific statistical concerns. Attention is given to the need for improved communication and collaboration between psychiatric researchers and biostatisticians.

Treatment of major depression with psychotherapy or psychotherapy-pharmacotherapy combinations.

BACKGROUND: Few reliable correlates of treatment response in depression have emerged despite nearly 40 years of research. We examined the correlates of recovery in a "mega-analysis," or meta-analysis of original data, of 595 patients with major depressive disorder enrolled in 6 standardized treatment protocols. METHODS: All patients (mean age, 44 years; 31% male and 69% female) met criteria for nonbipolar, nonpsychotic primary major depressive disorder and were treated for 16 weeks with either cognitive behavior therapy or interpersonal psychotherapy alone (psychotherapy alone; n = 243) or interpersonal psychotherapy plus antidepressant pharmacotherapy (combined therapy; n = 352). The impact of treatment type, severity, study, and other covariates on recovery rates or time to recovery were examined by means of chi 2, log-rank tests, the Cox proportional hazards model, and sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Whereas combined therapy was not significantly more effective than psychotherapy alone in milder depressions, a highly significant advantage was observed in more severe recurrent depressions. Poorer outcomes were also observed in women and older patients, although these effects were dependent on inclusion of particular studies. CONCLUSIONS: Mega-analysis is a powerful method for comparing the efficacy of treatments and examining correlates of response. Using this method, we found new evidence in support of the widespread clinical impression that combined therapy is superior to psychotherapy alone for treatment of more severe, recurrent depressions.

Some conceptual and statistical issues in analysis of longitudinal psychiatric data. Application to the NIMH treatment of Depression Collaborative Research Program dataset.

Longitudinal studies have a prominent role in psychiatric research; however, statistical methods for analyzing these data are rarely commensurate with the effort involved in their acquisition. Frequently the majority of data are discarded and a simple end-point analysis is performed. In other cases, so called repeated-measures analysis of variance procedures are used with little regard to their restrictive and often unrealistic assumptions and the effect of missing data on the statistical properties of their estimates. We explored the unique features of longitudinal psychiatric data from both statistical and conceptual perspectives. We used a family of statistical models termed random regression models that provide a more realistic approach to analysis of longitudinal psychiatric data. Random regression models provide solutions to commonly observed problems of missing data, serial correlation, time-varying covariates, and irregular measurement occasions, and they accommodate systematic person-specific deviations from the average time trend. Properties of these models were compared with traditional approaches at a conceptual level. The approach was then illustrated in a new analysis of the National Institute of Mental Health Treatment of Depression Collaborative Research Program dataset, which investigated two forms of psychotherapy, pharmacotherapy with clinical management, and a placebo with clinical management control. Results indicated that both person-specific effects and serial correlation play major roles in the longitudinal psychiatric response process. Ignoring either of these effects produces misleading estimates of uncertainty that form the basis of statistical tests of hypotheses.

Characteristics of the CD8+ lymphocytosis during primary simian immunodeficiency virus infections.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the source of the expanded blood CD8+ subsets during an acute primary simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection of macaques and the potential role of these cells in disease progression. DESIGN AND METHODS: The primary CD8+ lymphocytosis, which occurs at 1-2 weeks following infection with SIVsmm/PBj-14, was examined in rhesus and cynomolgus macaques. Extensive subset analysis of the expanded blood CD8+ cell pool in a rhesus macaque was compared phenotypically with those in thymus, lymph nodes, spleen, ileum and lung washouts obtained at necropsy during blood lymphocytosis. The influence of the primary CD8+ cells expansion on disease progression was assessed at days 175-679 post-infection in long-term PBj-14 survivors staged according to immunological, virological and histopathological changes in their lymphoid organs. RESULT: The very rapid and transient blood lymphocytosis following infection consisted of two distinct CD45RA(low), CD8+ and CD28-, lymphocyte function-associated antigen (LFA)-1(high), CD45RA(high), CD8+ populations. These populations were present in low levels in thymus, lymph and spleen but were highly represented in mucosal tissues, such as long washout, in which CD28- LFA-1(high) CD45RA(high) CD8+ cells comprised 86% of CD8+ cells, and gut, which was predominantly CD45RA(low) CD28- CD8+ cells. A comparison of progressor and non-progressor PBj-14-infected rhesus and cynomolgus macaques also indicated that the existence or magnitude of a blood CD8+ lymphocytosis during the acute phase of infection did not by itself appear to influence or be predictive of disease progression. CONCLUSION: The marked blood CD8+ lymphocytosis observed during acute SIV infection did not result from expansion of virus-specific precursors in peripheral lymph node and did not appear to influence the rate of disease progression. The findings provide a novel explanation for the primary CD8+ cell lymphocytosis and invoke a mechanism whereby virus-induced cytokine/chemokine production in mucosal sites initiate the transient migration of a pre-existing CD8+ population into the blood from compartments such as lung and gut. Such results suggest that the magnitude of lymphocytosis may depend on the level of viral replication in mucosal tissues and the presence of other infections, for example, cytomegalovirus.

Plasma norepinephrine variations with dietary sodium intake.

Plasma catecholamine and renin activity levels were measured across a range of dietary sodium intakes (10--300 mEq/day) in 20 normal male volunteers. Supine plasma norepinephrine levels presented a triphasic pattern in relation to urine sodium, whereas epinephrine levels were not significantly altered by sodium intake, and renin showed the well-known hyperbolic relationship to urine sodium excretion. Highest supine norepinephrine values occurred at low salt intakes, the lowest when sodium excretion was between 100 and 180 mEq/day, and intermediate when sodium excretion was greater than 180 mEq/day. These findings show that sodium intake is an important consideration in the interpretation of plasma norepinephrine levels.

Psychiatric and neuropsychological response to propranolol in Graves' disease.

We describe the endocrine, psychiatric, and neuropsychological assessments of 10 untreated, newly diagnosed Graves' disease subjects who were studied longitudinally at three stages: hyperthyroid (stage 1), after 2 weeks of propranolol treatment (stage 2), and after 6 months of antithyroid treatment (stage 3). Major depression, generalized anxiety disorder, and hypomania were diagnosed at stage 1. Elevations on psychiatric symptom rating scales and in motor activity monitoring at stage 1 were significantly decreased at stage 2 and again at stage 3. Psychiatric improvements paralleled improvements in endocrine symptoms. Neuropsychological improvements were noted on the more challenging memory and attention tasks at stage 3, whereas propranolol treatment was not associated with changes on attention tests. Results are discussed in relation to catecholamine-thyroid hormone interactions, in particular, the beta-adrenergic system.

Effect of nocturnal intravenous cannulation upon sleep-EEG measures.

The effect of an indwelling intravenous cannula on sleep-EEG measures has not been extensively documented despite its relatively frequent use in a variety of clinical studies. When the sleep EEGs from 30 healthy subjects were critically examined, no changes in sleep architecture were found. However, there were significant differences in the distribution of sleep latency, maintenance, and efficiency, with many subjects showing a reduction in the latter two items on the night of cannulation. A decrease in sleep maintenance of greater than 7.5 on the night of cannulation has been used to operationally define an unsatisfactory cannulation study which accounted for 43% of our subjects. It was striking that this group could also be identified by having higher REM densities in each REM period on the previous two nights in the sleep laboratory. This was especially true for the second REM period on the second night when only three of those subjects with subsequent unsatisfactory studies had a REM density less than 0.9. When this criterion was applied to a new group of 19 subjects, 13 were correctly classified with respect to subsequent changes in sleep maintenance before the cannulation study was conducted. It therefore appears possible that REM-sleep measures can be used to predict which subjects will have disrupted sleep on a subsequent cannulation night. Since sleep disruption can significantly mask patterns of hormone secretion, it is essential to monitor the sleep-EEG during such studies.

A reexamination of the relationship between growth hormone secretion and slow wave sleep using delta wave analysis.

Sleep onset growth hormone secretion is a reliable and reproducible finding in young adults and children. Secretion typically occurs during the first non-REM period of sleep and, despite some evidence to the contrary, growth hormone secretion has frequently been associated with the first period of slow wave sleep. By measuring delta wave activity (0.5-2 Hz) instead of slow wave sleep and, accounting for the within subject variability, it has not been possible to demonstrate a consistent or statistically significant linear relationship between delta wave activity and sleep-related growth hormone secretion. This suggests the presence of more complex mediating factors and the possibility that sleep onset and growth hormone secretion are two separate processes which are independently stimulated by events associated with sleep onset.

Minute-by-minute analysis of REM sleep timing in major depression.

Sleep changes described in depressed patients may represent alterations in the timing of rapid-eye-movement (REM) sleep or sleep onset. We examined these variables in groups of healthy control subjects (n = 47), depressed outpatients (n = 98), and depressed inpatients (n = 41). Outpatient depressives had greater severity of clinical symptoms than inpatients using the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression. The depressed inpatient group had a later mean sleep onset time than the other groups, and the depressed outpatient group had a wider range of good night times than control subjects. REM timing in each group was examined as a relative frequency distribution of REM sleep (FDRS) for each minute across the night. The FDRSs for the three groups were statistically compared using the parameters from a two-component model, which includes a deterministic sinusoidal function and a time series process for errors. The slope of the linear trend in the FDRS rhythm was smaller (less positive) for both depressed groups than for controls. The ultradian FDRS rhythm occurred at an earlier phase, relative to sleep onset, in the inpatient depressed group compared to the control group. The ultradian FDRS rhythm had a longer period in the outpatient group compared to the control and inpatient groups. When referenced to 24-hr clock time in an exploratory analysis, the depressed groups appeared to have less robust FDRS ultradian rhythms than controls, but they did not appear to have a systematic phase alteration compared to controls. Abnormalities of REM sleep timing in groups of depressed patients may reflect a disturbance of sleep initiation and generation, or difficulty in entrainment of REM, rather than a systematic phase alteration in REM sleep propensity.

Prolactin secretion during sleep: a comparison between depressed patients and healthy control subjects.

Although several neuroendocrine abnormalities have been described in depressed patients, relatively little attention has been paid to the pattern of prolactin secretion during sleep. Sleep disturbances are frequently found in depressed patients, and the sleep electroencephalogram (EEG) typically shows significant changes in the first and last 100 min, when prolactin secretion frequently occurs. In this study, carefully defined inclusion criteria were used to ensure comparability in the quality of the sleep maintenance, so that the pattern of sleep-related prolactin secretion in a group of 26 depressed inpatients could be compared to that in a group of 20 healthy control subjects. Starting from sleep onset, the patients did not show any statistically significant difference in either the serum prolactin concentration or the pattern of integrated prolactin secretion relative to the control subjects. A statistically significant relationship between prolactin secretion and the REM-non-REM sleep cycle could not be demonstrated in these subjects.

Graves' disease: an analysis of thyroid hormone levels and hyperthyroid signs and symptoms.

PURPOSE: Assessment of disease severity for patients with hyperthyroidism involves clinical evaluation and laboratory testing. To determine if there is a correlation between symptoms and thyroid function test results, we prospectively studied hyperthyroid patients using a standardized symptom rating scale and serum thyroid function parameters. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We examined 25 patients with untreated, newly diagnosed Graves' disease using the Hyperthyroid Symptom Scale (HSS) and serum levels of thyroxine (T4), triiodothyronine (T3) relative insulin area (RIA), and estimates of free thyroxine index (FTI). In addition, we compared thyroid hormone levels with standard measures of depression and anxiety in these patients. RESULTS: When regression analyses controlling for age were performed, none of these symptom ratings were associated with FTI or T3 RIA. The HSS was correlated with goiter size and anxiety ratings and was inversely correlated with age. CONCLUSION: The present study suggests that there is no relationship between the clinical assessment of disease severity and serum levels of thyroid hormone in untreated Graves' disease.

Frequent detection of HIV-1-specific mRNAs in infected individuals suggests ongoing active viral expression in all stages of disease.

It has been shown that only a small fraction of CD4+ T cells are infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in vivo, particularly early in the course of infection. An even smaller proportion of cells have been shown to be expressing virus. Recent studies suggest that plasma viremia in asymptomatic HIV-infected individuals, representing active viral replication, is more common than was previously believed (range 23-100% of patients). To determine the in vivo state of HIV expression, samples of peripheral blood of 49 HIV-infected individuals at all stages of disease were examined. All subjects were positive for viral DNA by standard polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and a modified PCR was utilized to detect HIV-specific mRNAs (gag, major splice junction, env, and tat/rev). Patient's plasma was also assayed for p24 antigen and viremia. The results were as follows: (formula: see text) Overall, the findings suggest that active viral expression occurs at all stages of HIV infection. In particular, the presence of gag mRNA was determined in only 2 of 14 patients with T4% greater than 30% but in 20 of 35 patients with T4% less than or equal to 30% (p less than 0.05), demonstrating a direct association between the presence of message for a structural protein, and more advanced immunosuppression. Determination of the expression of certain HIV-specific messages from within a patient's cells adds a new dimension to understanding the pathogenesis of HIV infection. The presence of HIV-specific mRNAs, and in particular gag message, in many healthy seropositives may further argue for early initiation of antiviral therapy.