Transportation as a Disease Vector in COVID-19: Border Mobility and Disease Spread.

More than a year after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization, the U.S.A. and Mexico rank first and fourth, respectively, with regard to the number of deaths. From March 2020, nonessential travelers were not allowed to cross the border into the U.S.A. from Mexico via international land ports of entry, which resulted in a more than 50% decrease in the number of people crossing the border. However, border communities still face a higher number of cases and faster community spread compared with those without international land ports of entry. This paper established an econometric model to understand the effects of cross-border mobility and other socioeconomic parameters on the speed of spread. The model was developed at the U.S. county level using data from all 3,141 counties in the U.S.A. Additionally, a follow-up U.S. county comparative analysis was developed to examine the significance of having a border crossing between the U.S.A. and Mexico for U.S. counties. The findings of the analysis revealed that the variables having a significant effect are as follows: population density; number of people per household; population in the 15-65 age group; median household income; mask use; number of visits to transit stations; number of visits to workplace; overall mobility; and having a border crossing to Mexico within county limits. The comparative analysis found that U.S. counties with border crossings have an average of 123 cases per 1,000 population whereas their counterparts without border crossings only have 90 cases per 1,000 population.

Health screening strategies for international air travelers during an epidemic or pandemic.

Air travelers can carry an infectious disease's pathogenic microorganism in their bodies and spread the disease from one country to another in a few days. To delay the spread, health screening stations may be set up at airport terminals to screen travelers. This research tested three different health screening strategies, each with a different combination of screening stations at trip origins, destinations and connecting airports. Discrete event simulations were performed, based on the 2014 to 2016 Ebola virus epidemic, with special focus on travelers from the West African countries traveling to the United States, including travelers who transferred flights at airports in European Union member states. The effectiveness of the screening strategies was analyzed in terms of correct detection, missed detection and false alarm rate. The results showed that exit screening at trip origins brought big improvements in the performance measurements compared to no screening. However, additional screening at the destinations and connecting airports contributed marginal benefits.