Population change in the former Soviet Republics.

PIP: Demographic trends in the former Soviet Republics and Russia are summarized and discussed in this publication. The former Soviet Republics in Europe as well as Georgia and Armenia had completed or almost completed their demographic transition before October 1991. Other Central Asian republics experienced reduced mortality, but, despite rapid declines, fertility is still above replacement level (at 3-4 children per woman). The economic and social dislocation of the breakup of the republics has hastened fertility decline. The annual population growth rate of the USSR in the mid-1980s was 0.9%; this rate declined to 0.4% in 1991, and the decline has continued. The 1991 population of the USSR was 289.1 million. Between 1989 and 1991, the crude birth rate was 18/1000 population, and the crude death rate was 10/1000. The net migration rate of -4/1000 helped to reduce growth. Total fertility in the USSR was 2.3 children in 1990. In Russia, fertility declined from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. The preferred family size in Russia was 1.9 in 1990 and 1.5 in 1993. This decline occurred due to lack of confidence in the economy and insufficient income. Only 19% of women used contraception in 1990. Marriages declined after 1990. Age pyramids were similar in the republics in that there was a narrowing in the proportion aged 45-49 years, and the male population aged over 65 years was diminished, due to the effect of World War II. The cohort of those aged 20-24 years in 1992 was very small due to the small parental birth cohort. The differences in the republics was characterized as broad-based in the younger ages because of high fertility. The number of childbearing women will remain large. Life expectancy has been 70 years since the 1950s and has declined in some republics due to substandard health care, lack of job safety measures, and alcoholism. Some republics experienced increased life expectancy, but, after 1991, mortality increased. Tajikistan had the highest infant mortality of 47/1000 live births in 1993. A demographic profile provided for each republic offers several population projection scenarios.^ieng

Understanding population projections.

PIP: This is a general introduction to how population projections are made and used for the consumers of this information. Population projections are computations of what future trends in fertility, mortality and migration of a population might be given set assumptions. They are not actual forecasts. Projections are used by planners in government and business for a clearer understanding of social changes. How to prepare projections, obtain base data, select starting and future levels of rates, variant series, and the mathematics involved are discussed. Assumptions must be carefully checked and chosen, since reliability of the projections depends on assumptions. There are 3 rules of thumb for reliability: 1) the shorter the projection period, the more reliable the projection; 2) the larger the geographic area being projected the more reliable the projection; 3) the lower the current fertility and the higher the current life expectancy, the lower the projection's margin of error. Major sources of data and projections on world, regional, national, subnational, and local areas and difficulties with data for developing countries are discussed. Available microcomputer programs for IBM PC compatible machines are listed and described briefly.^ieng

Our population predicament: a new look.

PIP: Issued to mark the Population Reference Bureau's 50th anniversary, this issue updates the story of world population presented in its popular predecessor of 1971, "Man's Population Predicament." Estimated at 1/2 billion in 1650, world population reached about 2 billion in 1930, 4 billion in 1975, and is projected to be about 6 billion in 2000. Most of today's rapid growth is occurring among the 3/4 of the world's peoples living in less developed countries where the post-World War II gap between high birth rates and falling death rates has only recently begun to narrow. This growth, coupled with high consumption in developing countries, is putting tremendous pressures on the Earth's resources, environment, and social fabric. New evidence on Europe's population transition and from China, Indonesia, and Thailand in the 1970s suggests that well-designed family planning programs can speed fertility decline but rapid worldwide attainment of replacement level fertility will also require special development efforts and measures that go beyond family planning. Current projections of the world's ultimate peak population range from 8 billion in the mid 21st century to 11 billion in about 2125, depending on when replacement-level fertility is reached. China's drive for a drastic birth rate reduction and the oil crisis might change fertility behavior more rapidly than most demographers have heretofore thought likely.^ieng

World population beyond six billion.

PIP: This world report reviews population growth pre-1900, population change during 1900-50 and 1950-2000, causes and effects of population change and projections to 2050. World population grew from 2 billion in 1900 to almost 6 billion in 2000. Population showed more rapid growth in the 17th and 18th centuries. Better hygiene and public sanitation in the 19th century led to expanded life expectancies and quicker growth, primarily in developed countries. Demographic transition in the 19th and 20th centuries was the result of shifts from high to low mortality and fertility. The pace of change varies with culture, level of economic development, and other factors. Not all countries follow the same path of change. The reproductive revolution in the mid-20th century and modern contraception led to greater individual control of fertility and the potential for rapid fertility decline. Political and cultural barriers that limit access affect the pace of decline. Population change is also affected by migration. Migration has the largest effect on the distribution of population. Bongaarts explains differences in fertility by the proportion in unions, contraceptive prevalence, infertility, and abortion. Educational status has a strong impact on adoption of family planning. Poverty is associated with multiple risks. In 2050, population could reach 10.7 billion or remain low at 7.3 billion.^ieng

Nigerian census surprises experts.

PIP: In 1989, Nigeria set up the independent National Population Commission (NPC) to undertake a long awaited, free of political tampering census. The head of the NPC separated the country into 7 census areas. Someone with no natal or marital connection to the area headed each area. The NPC followed current guidelines on conducting a census and held pretests and a rehearsal. It hired about 800,000 enumerators. Finally, in 3 days in November 1991, they collected census data from households where people were instructed to remain between 6-18 o'clock. This request along with other points helped to depoliticize this census. For example, population size would no longer determine distribution of government expenditures. Further the census questionnaire did not contain any questions to politicized topics mainly ethnic group, language, or religion. The results of the census revealed that population size was actually 88.5 million instead of the 1991 population estimates of 112-123 million. Lawmakers and leaders in several states have already called for recounts. In the past, census counts were inflated to increase revenue and due to ethnic conflict. Past population estimates have been based on the 1963 census which, despite its questionable reliability, was deemed more accurate than that of 1973. The 1963 count was officially 56 million, but the UN Demographic Yearbook reported it to be 46 million. Yet, now that the results of the much more reliable 1991 census are known, even 46 million was probably too high. The 1991 count indicated that the 1963 count was more likely between 36-41 million which was quite compatible with the 1953 count. Some population specialists fear that this much smaller population size will result in the government and people downplaying population policies and family planning. Indeed 1 political leader already told men to marry more wives and have more children. Yet the population may reach 120 million by 2000 at its current 3% rate of natural increase.^ieng

The late 1980s baby boomlet: delayed childbearing or not?

PIP: Delayed childbearing among women in their 30s has been a widely accepted explanation for the dramatic increase in the total fertility rate in the US from 1.84 to 2.01 in 1986-89. However, 1989 statistics from the National Center for Health Statistics refute this hypothesis. These statistics reveal that the birth rate for women 256-29 years of age increased by 7.4/1000, from 109.2 to 116.6 births between 1986-89 and the birth rate for women 20-24 years of age increased by 7.2/1000 in this period, from 108.0 to 115.4. The rate of increase for women 30-34 years old was of a lesser magnitude, from 69.3 to 76.2, a rise of 6.9/1000. Thus, women under 30 years old contributed about 2/3 of the rise in total fertility in 1986-89. On the other hand, there is evidence that women are having children at older average ages than in the past. The percentage of total births to women over 30 years old has risen from 18% in 1970 to 29% in 1989.^ieng

New UN projections show uncertainty of future world.

PIP: The 1990 world population extensions, published by the United Nations Population Division, differ dramatically from the 1980 long-range projections and suggest reason for serious concern about future trends. In the 1980 extensions, it was assumed that all countries would achieve replacement fertility. The 3 scenarios developed--high, middle, and low--resulted in a population estimate for the year 2150 that ranged from 10,139 to 28,025 billion. In contrast, the 1990 extensions show 7 divergent long-range scenarios that yield totals for 2150 ranging from 4,299 to 694,213 billion. The latter projection assumes no change in current population growth rates. the medium-high series, based on the assumption that fertility will settle on a value 5% above replacement level, yields an estimate of 20,772 billion for 2150; the medium-low series, which projects a fertility level 5% below replacement level, produces a population estimate of 5,633 billion. In both the 1980 and 1990 series, the medium estimate was based on achievement of replacement-level fertility on a schedule that varied region by region on the basis of current birth rates, population policies, and socioeconomic factors. This estimate for 2050 increased from 10,139 billion in 1980 to 11,543 billion in the 1990 series, due to upward revisions in life expectancy in the latter calculations. These projections are of great significance since they form the basis for food production, labor force, and other socioeconomic planning.^ieng

Storms over norms: single life, empty nest, or married with children?

PIP: Families comprised of a married couple with children declined from 50% in 1970 to 37% in 1991, while families consisting of all married couples declined from 87% in 1970 to 79% in 1991. The likelihood of marrying or remaining single is measured by the total 1st marriage rate (TFMR), a subset of the total marriage rate (TMR). IF everyone married someone in their lifetime, the TFMR would be 1.0. The TFMR of .7 ion 1988 suggests 30% of Americans will never marry. The reason is that the median age at marriage has been rising since the early 1970s as a result of delayed marriages. In 1991, only 5.1 of women ages 65 and over and 5.6% of those 45 to 54 had never married. Today, 111.7% of women 35 to 39 have never married, and the proportion may drop only a little after they turn 40. Never married rates for the next youngest age group are even higher: 18.7% of women in the 30-34 age group are single. Unless the TFMR rises soon, a much larger percentage of Americans will skip marriage in the future than ever before. At 1970 rates there would be about 38 million married-couple families with children under age 18 in the US instead of the 24 million actually present. Today, American women average about 2 children each as opposed to over 3 at the height of the baby boom. The married-with-children families comprise 26% of total households, while in 1970, they made up 40% of all households. 1-person households, with a high medial age of 57, often consist of a divorced or widowed person living alone comparison 1 out of every 4 households, up from 8% in 1940 and 17% in 1970. Delayed marriage among young adults also contributes to these 1-person households.^ieng

China's fertility drop lowers world growth rate.

PIP: China practices a stringent and compulsory program of family planning and population control. This approach has, however, served to increase the number of domestic IUD insertions and sterilizations. Contraceptive prevalence has reached 83% and total fertility (TFR) is estimated to be 1.9. This Chinese accomplishment has helped reduce TFR for all East Asia to 1.8, which is lower than that for northern Europe, and bring the world population growth rate down from the 1992 level of 1.68% to 1.63%. This latter rate is reported in the 1993 Population Reference Bureau's (PRB) World Population Data Sheet and is the lowest world population growth rate since PRB's first annual edition in 1962. Despite these reductions, world population still grows by 90 million annually. No one can say for sure whether or not observed fertility decline in China is permanent. China's birth rate rose twice in the 1980s and it could certainly rebound once again. A popular backlash to population policy or a relaxing of policy due to international pressure to reduce the level of compulsion in the program are 2 factors which might increase overall fertility and population growth. Fertility is also declining in subSaharan Africa, but not universally. Birth rates are rapidly declining in eastern Europe and the former USSR as economic conditions and outlooks pale. The populations of Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, and possible Russia are even declining, while only mixed data are available from Yugoslavia. New statistical publications reflect changing borders. Finally, while Slovakia is the only country added to this year's sheet, Eritrea and the Channel Islands will likely be included in next year's.^ieng

Births per U.S. woman? Depends on race, ethnicity.

PIP: A profile of mothers giving birth is presented for the US for 1990 based on race and ethnicity. Some of the complexities involved in compiling racial and ethnic data are described. The total fertility rate was 2.1 for all American women, 1.1 for Japanese Americans, and 3.2 for Hawaiians and Mexican Americans. The number of births per woman was derived from state birth registration data, which culls data from preadmission hospital forms filled out by the mother. The denominator of the birth rate comes from the number of women in the specified age group as determined by the Census. The problem arises from self-reports themselves. Consistency between recording systems has been improved since 1989 when births were counted based on mother's race and ethnicity. There have been greater percentages of interracial births for which race of both parents were known, and the trend was for 15% of the births for race of the father not to be reported in 1990. The data revealed that in 1990, Mexican Americans and Hawaiians had the highest birth rate of 3.2, which was comparable to developing countries in Latin America. The other Hispanic group was another high fertility group for a developed country. Low fertility was found among Japanese, Chinese, and Cuban Americans. The actual numbers revealed that non-Hispanic whites constitute 2.6 million out of 4.2 million children born in the US. 595,100 were Hispanics, 661,700 were non-Hispanic blacks, 142,000 were Asian or Pacific Islander, and less than 40,000 were American Indian. Teenage pregnancy was considerable among the ethnic populations: nearly 25% of African Americans, and about 20% of American Indians, Puerto Ricans, Hawaiians, and Mexican Americans having births to women under 20 years of age. The birthing patterns were different among minority groups. Hispanic women had early childbearing and continued childbearing throughout the reproductive years. Black and American Indian women tended to complete childbearing early. Asian women delayed childbearing until after the age of 25 years. Those with young childbearing patterns tended to have births out of marriage and tended to have low birth weight (LBW) infants and premature births. Low socioeconomic status did not preclude less healthy babies; both Mexican American and Central and South American mothers with under 12 years of education had lower than average LBWs.^ieng

Survey report: Indonesia.

PIP: With a population of 177 million, 90 million concentrated on the island of Java alone, Indonesia is the 5th most populous country. Government programs have sponsored transmigration, relocating volunteers to areas more sparsely populated. As well, the government-supported family planning program has made efforts toward reducing the rate of population growth in Indonesia. Inroads have been made as the National Indonesian Contraceptive Prevalence Survey in 1987 indicated a continual decrease in the national fertility to a Total Fertility Rate of 3.4 during the period of 1983-1987. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 5.6 lifetime children/woman based on the 1967-1970 average has also declined by more than 1/3 in the past 15 years. Nearly all of the respondents to the survey had heard of some method of contraception, and of those, 42% of the presently married women were using a modern method of contraception and 4% more a traditional method. Of the modern methods used, the pill was the most popular (14.1%) with IUDs the 2nd most popular (13.3%) and injection as the 3rd most popular method (9.5%). A large decrease in teenage pregnancies was observed, and the peak period for pregnancy remained in the 20-24 year age group. Over half or 55% of the respondents who were married women stated that they did not want any more children. If the TFR continues to decline and the ideal rate of 2 children/couple is reached by the year 2000, the population is expected to rise to 263 million in 2025 finally peaking at 300 million.^ieng

World population rises to 5.840 billion in 1997.

PIP: This newsbrief reports that the Population Reference Bureau's (PRB) figures for world population showed a mid-1997 total world population estimate of 5.84 billion. The world fertility rate was approximately 3 children/woman, but ranged from 1.6 in more developed countries to 4.0 in less developed countries, excluding China. PRB also released figures on maternal mortality. The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) ranged from under 5 deaths per 100,000 live births to 1000/100,000 in the poorest countries. The MMR was highest in Africa at almost 900/100,000. The lowest MMRs in Africa were found in Botswana at 250/100,000 and Namibia at 370/100,000. High MMRs of over 1500/100,000 occurred in Angola, Chad, Guinea, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Somalia. High MMRs of over 1500/100,000 in Asia occurred in Afghanistan, Bhutan, and Nepal. The lowest MMR in Asia was found in Japan at 9/100,000. MMRs in Latin America were low for developing countries at about 180/100,000, but high compared to the US MMR of 8/100,000. Maternal mortality is reduced by improved access to family planning services, community-based maternity care, and adequate emergency obstetric care. The annual rate of growth in 1997 was 1.47%, compared to 1.52% in 1996. Unless this growth rate changes, the world population will double from 5.8 to 11.6 billion in 47 years. Currently, 80% of world population, or 4,665,641,000 people live in developing countries. The population of 1,174,792,000 in developed countries has hardly increased over the past year. Europe is the first major region to experience a natural decrease of 0.1%. The declines are due to inclusion of eastern European countries. The world's lowest fertility rate is found in Italy and Spain with only 1.2 children/woman. Bulgaria and the Czech Republic are approaching this figure.^ieng

New UN projections depict a variety of demographic futures.

PIP: The UN Population Division current projection of a world population between 7.7 and 11.2 billion by 2050 is lower than the 1994 projection of 7.9-11.9 billion. This new projection is based on reduced total fertility rates in many regions. It is particularly difficult to make population projections in developing countries because demographers must base these projections on assumptions about birth and death rates. The UN, therefore, provides four projections based on various assumptions: high, medium, low, and constant fertility variants. The medium projection is usually labeled "most likely" to occur and assumes that fertility will converge at 2.1 children/woman by 2050. The low projection assumes that total fertility rate will decline to 1.6, and the high one uses a rate of 2.6. Constant fertility assumes that the 1990-95 fertility level of 3.0 will prevail and will produce a population of 15 billion by 2050. Projections for Africa indicate slightly slower growth because of the onset of fertility decline and the impact of AIDS, which has reduced life expectancy by about 6 years. Asia had a lower overall birth rate than was assumed for the period 1990-95 due to a reduction in the crude birth rate of India for the period. The projection for Latin America was slightly lower because of a decrease in Brazil's total fertility rate. Europe's projected population decline in the medium figures reflects the "free-fall" in fertility seen in the former Soviet republics and the newly independent states. These new UN projections show that it is possible to achieve reductions in population growth in developing countries. The assumptions behind these figures should be examined carefully, however, before they are used.^ieng

Spotlight: Trinidad and Tobago.

PIP: Trinidad and Tobago's major source of income is oil. First discovered in the early 20th century, oil made the country one of the most prosperous in the Western Hemisphere during the 1970s, during which the government had an expansive program of infrastructure improvement. The oil industry also gave rise to the country's famous steel pan music. However, when oil prices collapsed in the 1980s, Trinidad and Tobago fell into a serious recession from which it has only recently emerged. Much of the hope for the economy now lies in natural gas, a significant amount of which is pumped by Amoco. Fertilizers, chemicals, and sugar are other important exports. In the country's 1990 census, East Indians comprised 40% of the population, slightly larger than the population of African descent. Trinidad and Tobago's population has about doubled since the first postwar census in 1946 and population halfway through 1996 stood at 1.3 million. This relatively modest growth of the population is due to a slowly declining birth rate and some emigration although the country receives some immigrants from neighboring islands. The total fertility rate fell to 2.0 in 1995, lower than replacement level, while infant mortality is low and life expectancy is rising to near that of developed countries. There is concern, however, that the poor economy has made health care and medical supplies less accessible. A 1987 Demographic and Health Survey found 53% of all married women using contraception and 44% using modern methods. The level of use has probably increased since then. Finally, Trinidad and Tobago enjoys an excellent education system and the proportion of women age 15 years and older in the labor force is increasing.^ieng

Tunisia: survey report.

PIP: Recent data suggest the Tunisia is experiencing a slowdown in its fertility decline. Although the total fertility rate fell from about 7 children/women in 1966, the year a population policy was formulated, to about 5 children/women in the late 1970s, it has remained at the same level since that time. The rate of population growth has decreased only from 3% in 1966 to about 2.7% in the early 1980s. According to the Contraceptive Prevalence Survey of Tunisia, conducted in 1983, knowledge of family planning is virtually universal and 56% of ever-married women have used contraception at some point. Moreover, 41% of respondents were using a modern method of fertility control. The IUD and oral contraceptives were the most frequently used methods. Tunisian women desire an average of 4.8 children (5.3 in rural areas and 4.4 in urban centers), which is far above the 2-child family required for an end to population growth. On the other hand, the youngest women (ages 15-19 years surveyed desired 3.7 children. At present, 75% of Tunisian women are illiterate. It is hoped thatn expanded educational opportunities will continue to reduce the number of children desired among women in younger cohorts.^ieng

South Korea's low fertility raises European-style issues.

PIP: A demographic revolution has taken place in South Korea as evidenced by the marked decline in total fertility rate (TFR) from 6 in 1960 to the 1987 level of 1.6. South Korea holds the record for low fertility among developing countries, with women in South Korea averaging fewer children in their lifetimes than do women in Europe. The 1987 TFR for South Korea was even less than that of Sweden, Norway, and France. Emphasizing high initial rates of contraceptive use, family planning (FP) has been a strong component of South Korea's 5-year plans since 1962. Strong governmental support backed the efforts of a large group of FP workers who provided free contraceptives from private physicians. High discontinuation rates resulted, however, and the abortion rate has soared to equal the number of live births. Albeit a developing nation, South Korea now faces the challenges of below replacement fertility more typical of more developed countries. Current fertility levels indicate population increase to approximately 50 million by 2020, followed by a slow decline. While reducing pressure on limited resources, population decline and demographic aging will also demand allocation of a higher proportion of government funds to medical care, and potentially threaten South Korea's competitiveness in the world labor market. Having effected decreases in population growth and fertility, the government reduced the annual sterilization target in 1986 from 300,000 to 60,000 by 1991, and will increasingly turn to the private sector and national health insurance for service provision to all but the poor. A 2-child family norm may be promoted, FP programs expanded to the unmarried and legislation developed to eliminate the preference for sons. Delivery systems may also be reorganized to encourage continued use of contraceptive methods.^ieng

Vietnam's campaign to reduce population growth.

PIP: This paper reports campaigns to reduce the population growth in Vietnam. In July, red banners flew above the broad boulevard in Hanoi proclaiming World Population Day. This widespread public attention to population issues is not surprising, given the country's sharp reduction in fertility and widespread citizen support for smaller families. Since 1961, Vietnam has been trying to formulate a policy to reduce the population rate growth. The policy was a reaction to the results of the 1960 Census of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam and reflected long-standing concerns over food shortages, as well as a desire to improve women's health and welfare. After the reunification in 1975, the policy was extended to the entire country. Since then, Vietnam's growth rate has been declining, suggesting that the national campaign for smaller families is succeeding in changing deeply held attitudes and perceptions, in addition to current practices. While the fertility decline in Vietnam may not be the world's fastest, the success of the national population policy has forever altered the country's prospect for population growth.^ieng

How many people have ever lived on earth?

PIP: An estimate of the total number of persons who have ever lived on earth depends on two factors: 1) the length of time humans have been on earth; and 2) the average size of human populations at different periods. According to the United Nations' "Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends," modern Homo sapiens appeared about 50,000 B.C. At the dawn of agriculture, about 8000 B.C., the world's population was around 5 million. By 1 A.D., the population had reached 300 million, which indicates a growth rate of 0.0512% per year. Life expectancy at birth averaged 10 years for most of human history. The birth rate would have to be about 80 per 1000 just for the species to survive. Infant mortality in the early days of human life would be high, probably 500 infant deaths per 1000. Children were probably economic liabilities in hunter-gatherer societies; this might have led to infanticide, which in turn would require a disproportionately high birth rate to maintain population growth. By 1650, the world's population had risen to 500 million, although the Black Plague, which began in 542 A.D. in western Asia and killed 50% of the Byzantine Empire in the sixth century (a total of 100 million deaths), had slowed the rate of growth. By 1800, the world's population passed 1 billion and continued to grow to its current total of 5.7 billion. Estimating the number of people ever born requires selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period. Assuming a constant growth rate and birth rates of 80 per 1000 through 1 A.D., 60 per 1000 from 2 A.D. to 1750, and the low 30s per 1000 by modern times, 105 billion people have lived on earth, of whom 5.5% are alive today. The assumption of constant population growth in the earliest period may have resulted in an underestimate, while an earlier date of the appearance of humans on earth would raise the number. A table of Population Reference Bureau statistics is given.^ieng

The myth of delayed childbearing.

PIP: The media interpreted the increase in the US birth rate in the late 1980s to be a result of older women, who had delayed childbearing to pursue education and a career, finally beginning their families. The total fertility rate (TFR) in the US in 1976 was 2.1 and, for the next 10 years, it hovered around 1.8. In 1987, it began to increase and, by 1990, it returned to the 1976 level (2.1). Between 1986 and 1990, the age-specific fertility rate for women 20-24 years old increased from 107.4/1000 women to 116.5/1000 women. The age-specific fertility rate for women 30-34 years old increased from 70.1/1000 women to 80.8/1000 women. For the 4 age groups between ages 15 and 34, the absolute increase ranged from 9% to 11%, while it was 7.3% for women 35-39 and 1.4% for women 40-44. Women older than 30 had considerable percentage changes (15.3% for 30-34, 29.9% for 35-39, and 34.1% for 40-44). The percentage change is misleading, however, since it begins from a relatively low baseline in the case of the older women. For example, the increase in the age-specific fertility rate for women 40-44 from 4.1 to 5.5 accounted for only 2% of the increase in the TFR. Each of the 4 age groups between 15 and 34 accounted for around 20% of the increase in TFR. In fact, women younger than 30 accounted for 60% of the increase in the TFR, while those older than 30 accounted for 40%. Therefore, the increase in the TFR from 1.8 to 2.1 was due to an increase in fertility in all age groups and not just due to delayed childbearing.^ieng

Demographic upheavals in the former USSR.

PIP: Fertility and life expectancy have changed since the breakup of the Soviet republics in 1991 and continue to change very rapidly. Before 1991, the USSR was the fastest growing developed country in the world. Annual growth rates in the mid-1980s were 0.9% compared to only 0.1% in Europe or 1.1% in the US. Immigration did not greatly affect the USSR's growth rate. By 1993, the population had declined in 8 of the 15 former republics. Deaths exceeded births in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Estonia, and Latvia, followed by Lithuania in 1994. The last census was conducted in 1989. Fertility declined in Russia from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. Fertility has been low in Lithuania at 1.7, in the Ukraine at 1.6, in Latvia at 1.5, and in Estonia at 1.4. Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan have experienced fertility decline, which was affected by emigration to Russia and other countries after 1990. 25 million Russians have resided in the former republics in 1990. In Kazakhstan, the 160,000 more births than deaths were offset by 200,000 emigrants. Central republics with higher fertility experienced declines after 1990; for example, Kyrgyzstan declined from 3.7 in 1990 to 3.3 in 1993. Life expectancy for males in Russia in 1993 was 58.9 years, which was a decline from 63.8 years in 1990. About 50% of the decline in life expectancy was due to circulatory diseases, and about 25% was due to external causes such as accidents, suicide, and alcoholism. Infant mortality has been increasing since 1990; for example, it increased in the Ukraine from 12.9 in 1990 to 14.1 in 1992. Russia's population in 1993 experienced 700,000 more deaths than births. The demographic impact will be declining school enrollments and smaller employment among the working population to support the aged. The change to a market economy has been uneven in Russia, where it has advanced more rapidly than in the republics. It is unclear whether the declining birth rate and increasing mortality rates will continue, but ample evidence exists of rapid population change due to social and economic upheaval.^ieng