The economic tradeoffs and ecological impacts associated with a potential mesopelagic fishery in the California Current.

The ocean's mesopelagic zone (200-1000 m) remains one of the most understudied parts of the ocean despite knowledge that mesopelagic fishes are highly abundant. Apex predators from the surface waters are known to consume these fishes, constituting an important ecological interaction. Some countries have begun exploring the potential harvest of mesopelagic fishes to supply fishmeal and fish oil markets due to the high fish abundance in the mesopelagic zone compared with overfished surface waters. This study explored the economic and ecological implications of a moratorium on the harvest of mesopelagic fishes such as lanternfish off the US West Coast, one of the few areas where such resources are managed. We adapted a bioeconomic decision model to examine the tradeoffs between the values gained from a hypothetical mesopelagic fishery with the potential values lost from declines in predators of mesopelagic fishes facing a reduced prey resource. The economic rationale for a moratorium on harvesting mesopelagics was sensitive both to ecological relationships and the scale of the nonmarket values attributed to noncommercial predators. Using a California Current-based ecological simulation model, we found that most modeled predators of mesopelagic fishes increased in biomass even under high mesopelagic harvest rates, but the changes (either increases or decreases) were small, with relatively few predators responding with more than a 10% change in their biomass. While the ecological simulations implied that a commercial mesopelagic fishery might not have large biomass impacts for many species in the California Current system, there is still a need to further explore the various roles of the mesopelagic zone in the ocean.

Modeling the Economic Value of Blue Carbon in Delaware Estuary Wetlands: Historic Estimates and Future Projections.

Coastal wetlands sequester large amounts of carbon in their soils, effectively removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and acting as a carbon sink. In this paper, we estimate the economic value of carbon sequestered by wetlands in the Delaware Estuary. We estimate the value of the current stock of wetlands, the value of the historic loss of wetlands, and under a range of different scenarios the expected future loss. We use historical topographic maps and Land Cover inventories of the Delaware Estuary to measure the acreage of tidal wetlands in nine distinct time periods from 1778 to 2011. Using these data, we estimate an annual rate of wetland loss of 1.03 km2. Coupling observed land cover change with exogenous factors including sea-level rise, population pressure, and channel dredging, we estimate changes in tidal wetland area under a range of future scenarios for our expected future economic loss estimates.

Anthropogenic nutrients and harmful algae in coastal waters.

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are thought to be increasing in coastal waters worldwide. Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment has been proposed as a principal causative factor of this increase through elevated inorganic and/or organic nutrient concentrations and modified nutrient ratios. We assess: 1) the level of understanding of the link between the amount, form and ratio of anthropogenic nutrients and HABs; 2) the evidence for a link between anthropogenically generated HABs and negative impacts on human health; and 3) the economic implications of anthropogenic nutrient/HAB interactions. We demonstrate that an anthropogenic nutrient-HAB link is far from universal, and where it has been demonstrated, it is most frequently associated with high biomass rather than low biomass (biotoxin producing) HABs. While organic nutrients have been shown to support the growth of a range of HAB species, insufficient evidence exists to clearly establish if these nutrients specifically promote the growth of harmful species in preference to benign ones, or if/how they influence toxicity of harmful species. We conclude that the role of anthropogenic nutrients in promoting HABs is site-specific, with hydrodynamic processes often determining whether blooms occur. We also find a lack of evidence of widespread significant adverse health impacts from anthropogenic nutrient-generated HABs, although this may be partly due to a lack of human/animal health and HAB monitoring. Detailed economic evaluation and cost/benefit analysis of the impact of anthropogenically generated HABs, or nutrient reduction schemes to alleviate them, is also frequently lacking.

Review of Florida Red Tide and Human Health Effects.

This paper reviews the literature describing research performed over the past decade on the known and possible exposures and human health effects associated with Florida red tides. These harmful algal blooms are caused by the dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis, and similar organisms, all of which produce a suite of natural toxins known as brevetoxins. Florida red tide research has benefited from a consistently funded, long term research program, that has allowed an interdisciplinary team of researchers to focus their attention on this specific environmental issue-one that is critically important to Gulf of Mexico and other coastal communities. This long-term interdisciplinary approach has allowed the team to engage the local community, identify measures to protect public health, take emerging technologies into the field, forge advances in natural products chemistry, and develop a valuable pharmaceutical product. The Review includes a brief discussion of the Florida red tide organisms and their toxins, and then focuses on the effects of these toxins on animals and humans, including how these effects predict what we might expect to see in exposed people.

Changes in Work Habits of Lifeguards in Relation to Florida Red Tide.

The marine dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis, is responsible for Florida red tides. Brevetoxins, the neurotoxins produced by K. brevis blooms, can cause fish kills, contaminate shellfish, and lead to respiratory illness in humans. Although several studies have assessed different economic impacts from Florida red tide blooms, no studies to date have considered the impact on beach lifeguard work performance. Sarasota County experiences frequent Florida red tides and staffs lifeguards at its beaches 365 days a year. This study examined lifeguard attendance records during the time periods of March 1 to September 30 in 2004 (no bloom) and March 1 to September 30 in 2005 (bloom). The lifeguard attendance data demonstrated statistically significant absenteeism during a Florida red tide bloom. The potential economic costs resulting from red tide blooms were comprised of both lifeguard absenteeism and presenteeism. Our estimate of the costs of absenteeism due to the 2005 red tide in Sarasota County is about $3,000. On average, the capitalized costs of lifeguard absenteeism in Sarasota County may be on the order of $100,000 at Sarasota County beaches alone. When surveyed, lifeguards reported not only that they experienced adverse health effects of exposure to Florida red tide but also that their attentiveness and abilities to take preventative actions decrease when they worked during a bloom, implying presenteeism effects. The costs of presenteeism, which imply increased risks to beachgoers, arguably could exceed those of absenteeism by an order of magnitude. Due to the lack of data, however, we are unable to provide credible estimates of the costs of presenteeism or the potential increased risks to bathers.

The value of scientific research on the ocean's biological carbon pump.

The ocean's biological carbon pump (BCP) sequesters carbon from the surface to the deep ocean and seabed, constituting one of Earth's most valuable ecosystem services. Significant uncertainty exists surrounding the amounts and rates of organic carbon sequestered in the oceans, however. With improved understanding of BCP sequestration, especially its scale, world policymakers would be positioned to make more informed decisions regarding the mitigation of carbon emissions. Here, an analytical model of the economic effects of global carbon emissions-including scientific uncertainty about BCP sequestration-was developed to estimate the value of marine scientific research concerning sequestration. The discounted net economic benefit of a putative 20-year scientific research program to narrow the range of uncertainty around the amount of carbon sequestered in the ocean is on the order of $0.5 trillion (USD), depending upon the accuracy of predictions, the convexities of climate damage and economic output functions, and the initial range of uncertainty.

Neurological illnesses associated with Florida red tide (Karenia brevis) blooms.

Human respiratory and gastrointestinal illnesses can result from exposures to brevetoxins originating from coastal Florida red tide blooms, comprising the marine alga Karenia brevis (K. brevis). Only limited research on the extent of human health risks and illness costs due to K. brevis blooms has been undertaken to date. Because brevetoxins are known neurotoxins that are able to cross the blood-brain barrier, it is possible that exposure to brevetoxins may be associated with neurological illnesses. This study explored whether K. brevis blooms may be associated with increases in the numbers of emergency department visits for neurological illness. An exposure-response framework was applied to test the effects of K. brevis blooms on human health, using secondary data from diverse sources. After controlling for resident population, seasonal and annual effects, significant increases in emergency department visits were found specifically for headache (ICD-9 784.0) as a primary diagnosis during proximate coastal K. brevis blooms. In particular, an increased risk for older residents (≥55 years) was identified in the coastal communities of six southwest Florida counties during K. brevis bloom events. The incidence of headache associated with K. brevis blooms showed a small but increasing association with K. brevis cell densities. Rough estimates of the costs of this illness were developed for hypothetical bloom occurrences.

Linking the oceans to public health: current efforts and future directions.

We review the major linkages between the oceans and public health, focusing on exposures and potential health effects due to anthropogenic and natural factors including: harmful algal blooms, microbes, and chemical pollutants in the oceans; consumption of seafood; and flooding events. We summarize briefly the current state of knowledge about public health effects and their economic consequences; and we discuss priorities for future research.We find that:* There are numerous connections between the oceans, human activities, and human health that result in both positive and negative exposures and health effects (risks and benefits); and the study of these connections comprises a new interdisciplinary area, "oceans and human health."* The state of present knowledge about the linkages between oceans and public health varies. Some risks, such as the acute health effects caused by toxins associated with shellfish poisoning and red tide, are relatively well understood. Other risks, such as those posed by chronic exposure to many anthropogenic chemicals, pathogens, and naturally occurring toxins in coastal waters, are less well quantified. Even where there is a good understanding of the mechanism for health effects, good epidemiological data are often lacking. Solid data on economic and social consequences of these linkages are also lacking in most cases.* The design of management measures to address these risks must take into account the complexities of human response to warnings and other guidance, and the economic tradeoffs among different risks and benefits. Future research in oceans and human health to address public health risks associated with marine pathogens and toxins, and with marine dimensions of global change, should include epidemiological, behavioral, and economic components to ensure that resulting management measures incorporate effective economic and risk/benefit tradeoffs.

Risk in daily newspaper coverage of red tide blooms in Southwest Florida.

This study investigated newspaper coverage of Florida red tide blooms in four metropolitan areas of Southwest Florida during a 25-year period, 1987-2012. We focused on how journalists framed red tide stories with respect to environmental risk, health risk, and economic risk. We determined risk to be a key factor in this news coverage, being an aspect of coverage of red tide itself in terms of environmental risk, tourism risk, and public health risk. The study found that red tide news coverage is most often framed as an environmental story.

Marine harmful algal blooms, human health and wellbeing: challenges and opportunities in the 21st century.

Microalgal blooms are a natural part of the seasonal cycle of photosynthetic organisms in marine ecosystems. They are key components of the structure and dynamics of the oceans and thus sustain the benefits that humans obtain from these aquatic environments. However, some microalgal blooms can cause harm to humans and other organisms. These harmful algal blooms (HABs) have direct impacts on human health and negative influences on human wellbeing, mainly through their consequences to coastal ecosystem services (fisheries, tourism and recreation) and other marine organisms and environments. HABs are natural phenomena, but these events can be favoured by anthropogenic pressures in coastal areas. Global warming and associated changes in the oceans could affect HAB occurrences and toxicity as well, although forecasting the possible trends is still speculative and requires intensive multidisciplinary research. At the beginning of the 21st century, with expanding human populations, particularly in coastal and developing countries, mitigating HABs impacts on human health and wellbeing is becoming a more pressing public health need. The available tools to address this global challenge include maintaining intensive, multidisciplinary and collaborative scientific research, and strengthening the coordination with stakeholders, policymakers and the general public. Here we provide an overview of different aspects of the HABs phenomena, an important element of the intrinsic links between oceans and human health and wellbeing.

Human responses to Florida red tides: policy awareness and adherence to local fertilizer ordinances.

To mitigate the damages of natural hazards, policy responses can be beneficial only if they are effective. Using a self-administered survey approach, this paper focuses on the adherence to local fertilizer ordinances (i.e., county or municipal rules regulating the application of fertilizer to private lawns or facilities such as golf courses) implemented in jurisdictions along the Southwest Florida coast in response to hazardous blooms of Florida red tides (Karenia brevis). These ordinances play a role in the context of evolving programs of water pollution control at federal, state, water basin, and local levels. With respect to policy effectiveness, while the strength of physical linkages is of critical importance, the extent to which humans affected are aware of and adhere to the relevant rules, is equally critical. We sought to understand the public's depth of understanding about the rationales for local fertilizer ordinances. Respondents in Sarasota, Florida, were asked about their fertilizer practices in an area that has experienced several major blooms of Florida red tides over the past two decades. A highly educated, older population of 305 residents and "snowbirds" reported relatively little knowledge about a local fertilizer ordinance, its purpose, or whether it would change the frequency, size, or duration of red tides. This finding held true even among subpopulations that were expected to have more interest in or to be more knowledgeable about harmful algal blooms. In the face of uncertain science and environmental outcomes, and with individual motivations at odds with evolving public policies, the effectiveness of local community efforts to decrease the impacts of red tides may be compromised. Targeted social-science research on human perceptions about the risks of Florida red tides and education about the rationales for potential policy responses are warranted.

The human health effects of Florida red tide (FRT) blooms: an expanded analysis.

Human respiratory and digestive illnesses can be caused by exposures to brevetoxins from blooms of the marine alga Karenia brevis, also known as Florida red tide (FRT). K. brevis requires macro-nutrients to grow; although the sources of these nutrients have not been resolved completely, they are thought to originate both naturally and anthropogenically. The latter sources comprise atmospheric depositions, industrial effluents, land runoffs, or submerged groundwater discharges. To date, there has been only limited research on the extent of human health risks and economic impacts due to FRT. We hypothesized that FRT blooms were associated with increases in the numbers of emergency room visits and hospital inpatient admissions for both respiratory and digestive illnesses. We sought to estimate these relationships and to calculate the costs of associated adverse health impacts. We developed environmental exposure-response models to test the effects of FRT blooms on human health, using data from diverse sources. We estimated the FRT bloom-associated illness costs, using extant data and parameters from the literature. When controlling for resident population, a proxy for tourism, and seasonal and annual effects, we found that increases in respiratory and digestive illnesses can be explained by FRT blooms. Specifically, FRT blooms were associated with human health and economic effects in older cohorts (≥55 years of age) in six southwest Florida counties. Annual costs of illness ranged from $60,000 to $700,000 annually, but these costs could exceed $1.0 million per year for severe, long-lasting FRT blooms, such as the one that occurred during 2005. Assuming that the average annual illness costs of FRT blooms persist into the future, using a discount rate of 3%, the capitalized costs of future illnesses would range between $2 and 24 million.

The costs of respiratory illnesses arising from Florida gulf coast Karenia brevis blooms.

BACKGROUND: Algal blooms of Karenia brevis, a harmful marine algae, occur almost annually off the west coast of Florida. At high concentrations, K. brevis blooms can cause harm through the release of potent toxins, known as brevetoxins, to the atmosphere. Epidemiologic studies suggest that aerosolized brevetoxins are linked to respiratory illnesses in humans. OBJECTIVES: We hypothesized a relationship between K. brevis blooms and respiratory illness visits to hospital emergency departments (EDs) while controlling for environmental factors, disease, and tourism. We sought to use this relationship to estimate the costs of illness associated with aerosolized brevetoxins. METHODS: We developed a statistical exposure-response model to express hypotheses about the relationship between respiratory illnesses and bloom events. We estimated the model with data on ED visits, K. brevis cell densities, and measures of pollen, pollutants, respiratory disease, and intra-annual population changes. RESULTS: We found that lagged K. brevis cell counts, low air temperatures, influenza outbreaks, high pollen counts, and tourist visits helped explain the number of respiratory-specific ED diagnoses. The capitalized estimated marginal costs of illness for ED respiratory illnesses associated with K. brevis blooms in Sarasota County, Florida, alone ranged from $0.5 to $4 million, depending on bloom severity. CONCLUSIONS: Blooms of K. brevis lead to significant economic impacts. The costs of illness of ED visits are a conservative estimate of the total economic impacts. It will become increasingly necessary to understand the scale of the economic losses associated with K. brevis blooms to make rational choices about appropriate mitigation.