Ten Years Later: Reflections on Critics' Worst-Case Scenarios for the Affordable Care Act.

The primary goals of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) were to increase the availability and affordability of health insurance coverage and thereby improve access to needed health care services. Numerous studies have overwhelmingly confirmed that the law has reduced uninsurance and improved affordability of coverage and care for millions of Americans. Not everyone believed that the ACA would lead to positive outcomes, however. Critics raised numerous concerns in the years leading up to the law's passage and full implementation, including about its consequences for national health spending, labor supply, employer health insurance markets, provider capacity, and overall population health. This article considers five frequently heard worst-case scenarios related to the ACA and provides research evidence that these fears did not come to pass.

Achievement Gap in Reading Is Present as Early as First Grade and Persists through Adolescence.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if differences between dyslexic and typical readers in their reading scores and verbal IQ are evident as early as first grade and whether the trajectory of these differences increases or decreases from childhood to adolescence. STUDY DESIGN: The subjects were the 414 participants comprising the Connecticut Longitudinal Study, a sample survey cohort, assessed yearly from 1st to 12th grade on measures of reading and IQ. Statistical analysis employed longitudinal models based on growth curves and multiple groups. RESULTS: As early as first grade, compared with typical readers, dyslexic readers had lower reading scores and verbal IQ, and their trajectories over time never converge with those of typical readers. These data demonstrate that such differences are not so much a function of increasing disparities over time but instead because of differences already present in first grade between typical and dyslexic readers. CONCLUSIONS: The achievement gap between typical and dyslexic readers is evident as early as first grade, and this gap persists into adolescence. These findings provide strong evidence and impetus for early identification of and intervention for young children at risk for dyslexia. Implementing effective reading programs as early as kindergarten or even preschool offers the potential to close the achievement gap.

Early reading at first grade predicts adult reading at age 42 in typical and dyslexic readers.

Research indicates that the achievement gap in reading between typical and dyslexic readers is already evident in first grade and persists through adolescence. However, it is not known whether this reading gap persists into adult life. In this report we use an epidemiologic sample of 312 children (typical readers = 246; dyslexic readers = 66), followed longitudinally from age 5 through adulthood and examine two fundamental questions: 1) Is reading level in 1st grade predictive of reading proficiency in adulthood in typical and dyslexic readers? and 2) Are the trajectories of reading development from 1st through 5th grade predictive of reading proficiency in adulthood in typical and dyslexic readers? Our findings indicate that early reading levels in 1st grade as well as the trajectory of reading development through the first five years of school were associated with reading scores in adulthood. This association was stronger for dyslexic than for typical readers, especially the latter factor. These findings indicate that the achievement gap between typical and dyslexic readers persists far beyond adolescence, in fact, into adult life.

Why employers will continue to provide health insurance: the impact of the Affordable Care Act.

The Congressional Budget Office, the Rand Corporation, and the Urban Institute have estimated that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) will leave employer-sponsored coverage largely intact; in contrast, some economists and benefit consultants argue that the ACA encourages employers to drop coverage, thereby making both their workers and their firms better off (a "win-win" situation). This analysis shows that no such "win-win" situation exists and that employer-sponsored insurance will remain the primary source of coverage for most workers. Analysis of three issues-the terms of the ACA, worker characteristics, and the fundamental economics of competitive markets-supports this conclusion.

Uncoupling of reading and IQ over time: empirical evidence for a definition of dyslexia.

Developmental dyslexia is defined as an unexpected difficulty in reading in individuals who otherwise possess the intelligence and motivation considered necessary for fluent reading, and who also have had reasonable reading instruction. Identifying factors associated with normative and impaired reading development has implications for diagnosis, intervention, and prevention. We show that in typical readers, reading and IQ development are dynamically linked over time. Such mutual interrelationships are not perceptible in dyslexic readers, which suggests that reading and cognition develop more independently in these individuals. To our knowledge, these findings provide the first empirical demonstration of a coupling between cognition and reading in typical readers and a developmental uncoupling between cognition and reading in dyslexic readers. This uncoupling was the core concept of the initial description of dyslexia and remains the focus of the current definitional model of this learning disability.

Developmental trajectories of white matter structure in children with and without reading impairments.

Left temporal-parietal white matter structure is consistently associated with reading abilities in children. A small number of longitudinal studies show that development of this area over time is altered in children with impaired reading. However, it remains unclear how brain developmental patterns relate to specific reading skills such as fluency, which is a critical part of reading comprehension. Here, we examined white matter development trajectories in children with dysfluent reading (20 dysfluent and inaccurate readers, 36 dysfluent and accurate readers) compared to non-impaired readers (n = 14) over 18 months. We found typical age-related increases of fractional anisotropy (FA) in bilateral temporal-parietal areas in non-impaired readers, but a lack of similar changes in dysfluent readers. We also found steeper decreases of mean diffusivity (MD) in the right corona radiata and left uncinate fasciculus in dysfluent inaccurate readers compared to dysfluent accurate readers. Changes in diffusion parameters were correlated with changes in reading scores over time. These results suggest delayed white matter development in dysfluent readers, and show maturational differences between children with different types of reading impairment. Overall, these results highlight the importance of considering developmental trajectories, and demonstrate that the window of plasticity may be different for different children.

Employer-Sponsored Insurance Stable For Low-Income Workers In Medicaid Expansion States.

We assessed rates of employer health insurance offer, take-up, and coverage in June 2013 and March 2017 among workers. Overall, offer rates remained stable, and take-up and coverage rates increased. In Medicaid expansion states, the share of workers with family incomes at or below 138 percent of the federal poverty level who had employer-based coverage held steady, while uninsurance rates declined.

Identifying atypical change at the individual level from childhood to adolescence.

Identifying change at the individual level is an important goal for researchers, educators, and clinicians. We present a set of statistical procedures for identifying individuals who depart from a normative change. Using Latent Change Scores models (LCS), we illustrate how the Individual Likelihood computed from a statistical model for change (IL) and from an alternative unrestricted model (ILsat) can be used to identify atypical trajectories in situations with several measurement occasions. Using LCS and linear regression, we also show how the observed and latent change residuals can be used to identify atypical individual change between 2 measurement occasions. We apply these methods to a measure of general verbal ability (from WISC-R), from a large sample of individuals assessed every 2 years from Grade 1 to 9. We demonstrate the efficiency of these techniques, illustrate their use to identify individual change in longitudinal data, and discuss potential applications in developmental research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Error-related event-related potentials in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, reading disorder, and math disorder.

We studied error-related negativity (ERN) and error positivity (Pe) during a discrimination task in 319 unmedicated children divided into subtypes of ADHD (Not-ADHD/inattentive/combined), learning disorder (Not-LD/reading/math/reading+math), and oppositional defiant disorder. Response-locked ERPs contained a frontocentral ERN and posterior Pe. Error-related negativity and positivity exhibited larger amplitude and later latency than corresponding waves for correct responses matched on reaction time. ADHD did not affect performance on the task. The ADHD/combined sample exceeded controls in ERN amplitude, perhaps reflecting patients' adaptive monitoring efforts. Compared with controls, subjects with reading disorder and reading+math disorder performed worse on the task and had marginally more negative correct-related negativities. In contrast, Pe/Pc was smaller in children with reading+math disorder than among subjects with reading disorder and Not-LD participants; this nonspecific finding is not attributable to error processing. The results reflect anomalies in error processing in these disorders but further research is needed to address inconsistencies in the literature.

Longitudinal models of developmental dynamics between reading and cognition from childhood to adolescence.

The authors applied linear dynamic models to longitudinal data to examine the dynamics of reading and cognition from 1st to 12th grade. They used longitudinal data (N=445) from the Connecticut Longitudinal Study (S. E. Shaywitz, B. A. Shaywitz, J. M. Fletcher, & M. D. Escobar, 1990) to map the dynamic interrelations of various scales of the Wechsler Intelligence Scales for Children--Revised (i.e., Full, Performance, and Verbal) and specific markers of the Woodcock-Johnson Psycho-Educational Battery--Revised reading cluster (i.e., Letter-Word ID, Decoding, and Comprehension). The results of these analyses indicate that (a) there is a positive dynamic relation between reading and cognition across the selected age range; (b) this dynamic relation is symbiotic, with positive influences in both directions; (c) the influence from cognition to reading is stronger when considering the Wechsler Intelligence Scales for Children Performance--Revised Performance scale and weaker with the Verbal scale; (d) when examining the different Reading subtests, the influences from cognition are more apparent for Letter-Word ID and Comprehension and are less perceptible for Decoding; and (e) the dynamics of reading and cognition appear to be of stronger magnitude during 1st to 3rd grade, less strong during 4th to 8th grade, and weaker from 9th to 12th grade.

Toward a more reliable federal survey for tracking health insurance coverage and access.

OBJECTIVE: Examination of the extent to which federal surveys provide the data needed to estimate the coverage/cost impacts of policy alternatives to address the problem of uninsurance. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Assessment of the major federal household surveys that regularly provide information on health insurance and access to care based on an examination of each survey instrument and related survey documentation and the methodological literature. STUDY DESIGN: Identification of the data needed to address key policy questions on insurance coverage, assessment of how well existing surveys meet this need, definition of the critical elements of an ideal survey, and examination of the potential for building on existing surveys. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Collection and critical assessment of pertinent survey documentation and methodological studies. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: While all the federal surveys examined provide valuable information, the information available to guide key policy decisions still has major gaps. Issues include measurement of insurance coverage and critical content gaps, inadequate sample sizes to support precise state and substate estimates, considerable delays between data collection and availability, and concerns about response rates and item nonresponse. Our assessment is that the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the National Health Interview Survey could be most readily modified to address these issues. CONCLUSIONS: The vast resources devoted to health care and the magnitude of the uninsurance problem make it critical that we have a reliable source for tracking health care and coverage at the national and state levels and for major local areas. It is plausible that this could be more cost effectively done by building on existing surveys than by designing and fielding a new one, but further research is needed to make a definitive judgment. At a minimum, the health insurance information collected on the CPS should be revised to address existing measurement problems.

Toward universal coverage in Massachusetts.

This paper presents several options designed to help the Commonwealth of Massachusetts move to universal health insurance coverage. The alternatives all build upon a common base that includes an expansion of the Medicaid program, income-related tax credits, a purchasing pool, and government-sponsored reinsurance. These measures in themselves would not yield universal coverage, nor would an employer mandate by itself. We show that an individual mandate, and an employer mandate combined with an individual mandate, both would yield universal coverage with a relatively small increase in government costs relative to state gross domestic product and current health spending. The cost of an employer mandate--with a "pay or play" design--is sensitive to the payroll tax rate and base, the number and kind of exemptions, and whether workers whose employers "pay" receive discounts when they purchase health insurance. The development of these alternatives and their analyses contributed to the eventual health care compromise that emerged in Massachusetts in April 2006.

Early Experience with the ACA: Coverage Gains, Pooling of Risk, and Medicaid Expansion.

We provide an overview of the characteristics of those who have gained insurance coverage due to the ACA as well as the characteristics of the remaining uninsured. We also describe the implications for the broader sharing of health care risks required under the law, and how they vary by individuals' health status. Finally, we assess the implications of state decisions to expand or not expand Medicaid eligibility under the law, how those decisions affect state finances, health care providers, residents, and how the effects may vary for those states using waivers to expand eligibility using strategies designed to be more broadly politically acceptable.

Estimating the Counterfactual: How Many Uninsured Adults Would There Be Today Without the ACA?

Time lags in receiving data from long-standing, large federal surveys complicate real-time estimation of the coverage effects of full Affordable Care Act (ACA) implementation. Fast-turnaround household surveys fill some of the void in data on recent changes to insurance coverage, but they lack the historical data that allow analysts to account for trends that predate the ACA, economic fluctuations, and earlier public program expansions when predicting how many people would be uninsured without comprehensive health care reform. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) from 2000 to 2012 and the Health Reform Monitoring Survey (HRMS) data for 2013 and 2015, this article develops an approach to estimate the number of people who would be uninsured in the absence of the ACA and isolates the change in coverage as of March 2015 that can be attributed to the ACA. We produce counterfactual forecasts of the number of uninsured absent the ACA for 9 age-income groups and compare these estimates with 2015 estimates based on HRMS relative coverage changes applied to CPS-based population estimates. As of March 2015, we find the ACA has reduced the number of uninsured adults by 18.1 million compared with the number who would have been uninsured at that time had the law not been implemented. That decline represents a 46% reduction in the number of nonelderly adults without insurance. The approach developed here can be applied to other federal data and timely surveys to provide a range of estimates of the overall effects of reform.

Understanding the recent growth in Medicaid spending, 2000-2003.

Growth in Medicaid spending averaged 10.2 percent per year between 2000 and 2003, resulting in a one-third increase in program spending. Spending growth was lower from 2002 to 2003 because of slower growth in enrollment and in spending per enrollee, particularly for acute care services, and declines in disproportionate-share hospital (DSH) payments and upper payment limit (UPL) programs. For the entire 2000-2003 period, Medicaid spending increases were largely driven by enrollment growth, much of which was attributable to the economic downturn. Increases in spending per enrollee over the period were faster than inflation but slower than increases in private insurance spending.

Changes in economic conditions and health insurance coverage, 2000-2004.

Between 2000 and 2004, the number of uninsured Americans increased by six million, primarily because of a decline in employer-sponsored insurance. All of the increase occurred among adults, for whom the drop in employer coverage was not offset by an increase in public coverage. The number of uninsured children fell slightly. About two-thirds of the growth in the uninsured was among Americans below 200 percent of the federal poverty level. Coverage rates have also fallen among higher-income Americans. About half of the growth in the uninsured was among young adults ages 19-34, about 55 percent among whites, and 73 percent among native-born citizens.