Increased mortality in a Danish cohort of young people with Type 1 diabetes mellitus followed for 24 years.

AIM: To determine the mortality rate in a Danish cohort of children and adolescents diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes mellitus compared with the general population. METHODS: In 1987 and 1989 we included 884 children and 1020 adolescents aged 20 years and under, corresponding to 75% of all Danish children and adolescents with Type 1 diabetes, in two nationwide studies in Denmark. Those who had participated in both investigations (n = 720) were followed until 1 January 2014, using the Danish Civil Registration System on death certificates and emigration. We derived the expected number of deaths in the cohort, using population data values from Statistics Denmark to calculate the standardized mortality ratio. Survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the 24 years of follow-up, 49 (6.8%) patients died, resulting in a standardized mortality ratio of 4.8 (95% confidence interval 3.5, 6.2) compared with the age-standardized general population. A 1% increase in baseline HbA1c (1989), available in 718 of 720 patients, was associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.38; 95% confidence interval 1.2, 1.6; P < 0.0001). Type 1 diabetes with multiple complications was the most common reported cause of death (36.7%). CONCLUSION: We found an increased mortality rate in this cohort of children and adolescents with Type 1 diabetes compared with the general population. The only predictor for increased risk of death up to 24 years after inclusion was the HbA1c level in 1989. This emphasizes the importance of achieving optimal metabolic control in young people with Type 1 diabetes.

Testing effect of a drug using multiple nested models for the dose-response.

During development of a drug, typically the choice of dose is based on a Phase II dose-finding trial, where selected doses are included with placebo. Two common statistical dose-finding methods to analyze such trials are separate comparisons of each dose to placebo (using a multiple comparison procedure) or a model-based strategy (where a dose-response model is fitted to all data). The first approach works best when patients are concentrated on few doses, but cannot conclude on doses not tested. Model-based methods allow for interpolation between doses, but the validity depends on the correctness of the assumed dose-response model. Bretz et al. (2005, Biometrics 61, 738-748) suggested a combined approach, which selects one or more suitable models from a set of candidate models using a multiple comparison procedure. The method initially requires a priori estimates of any non-linear parameters of the candidate models, such that there is still a degree of model misspecification possible and one can only evaluate one or a few special cases of a general model. We propose an alternative multiple testing procedure, which evaluates a candidate set of plausible dose-response models against each other to select one final model. The method does not require any a priori parameter estimates and controls the Type I error rate of selecting a too complex model.

Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships.

An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve. It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated using a public dataset and simulations based on the Emax and sigmoid Emax models.

Multinational study in children and adolescents with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes: association of age, ketoacidosis, HLA status, and autoantibodies on residual beta-cell function and glycemic control 12 months after diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of residual beta-cell function and glycemic control during the first 12 months after the diagnosis of type 1 diabetes (T1D). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Clinical information and blood samples were collected from 275 children. HbA1c, antibodies, HLA typing and mixed meal-stimulated C-peptide levels 1, 6, and 12 months after diagnosis were analyzed centrally. RESULTS: Mean age at diagnosis was 9.1 yr. DKA with standard bicarbonate <15 mmol/L was associated with significantly poorer residual beta-cell function 1 (p = 0.004) and 12 months (p = 0.0003) after diagnosis. At 12 months, the decline in stimulated C-peptide levels compared with the levels at 1 month was 69% in the youngest age group and 50% in patients 10 yr and above (p < 0.001). Stimulated C-peptide at 12 months was predicted by younger age (p < 0.02) and bicarbonate levels at diagnosis (p = 0.005), and by stimulated C-peptide (p < 0.0001), postmeal blood glucose (p = 0.0004), insulin antibodies (IA; p = 0.02) and glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies (GADA; p = 0.0004) at 1 month. HbA1c at 12 months was predicted by HbA1c at diagnosis (p < 0.0001), GADA at 1 month (p = 0.01), and non-white Caucasian ethnicity (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Younger age, ketoacidosis at diagnosis, and IA and GADA 1 month after diagnosis were the strongest explanatory factors for residual beta-cell function at 12 months. Glycemic control at 12 months was influenced predominantly by ethnicity, HbA1c at diagnosis, and GADA at 1 month.

Relation of circulating concentrations of chemokine receptor CCR5 ligands to C-peptide, proinsulin and HbA1c and disease progression in type 1 diabetes.

Th1 related chemokines CCL3 and CCL5 and Th2 related CCL4 as ligands of the receptor CCR5 contribute to disease development in animal models of type 1 diabetes. In humans, no data are available addressing the role of these chemokines regarding disease progression and remission. We investigated longitudinally circulating concentrations of CCR5 ligands of 256 newly diagnosed patients with type 1 diabetes. CCR5 ligands were differentially associated with beta-cell function and clinical remission. CCL5 was decreased in remitters and positively associated with HbA1c suggestive of a Th1 associated progression of the disease. Likewise, CCL3 was negatively related to C-peptide and positively associated with the beta-cell stress marker proinsulin but increased in remitters. CCL4 associated with decreased beta-cell stress shown by negative association with proinsulin. Blockage of chemokines or antagonism of CCR5 by therapeutic agents such as maraviroc may provide a new therapeutic target to ameliorate disease progression in type 1 diabetes.

Insulin sensitivity index, acute insulin response, and glucose effectiveness in a population-based sample of 380 young healthy Caucasians. Analysis of the impact of gender, body fat, physical fitness, and life-style factors.

BACKGROUND: Insulin sensitivity and insulin secretion are traits that are both genetically and environmentally determined. AIM: The aim of this study was to describe the distribution of the insulin sensitivity index (Si), the acute insulin response, and glucose effectiveness (Sg) in young healthy Caucasians and to estimate the relative impact of anthropometric and environmental determinants on these variables. METHODS: The material included 380 unrelated Caucasian subjects (18-32 yr) with measurement of Si, Sg and insulin secretion during a combined intravenous glucose (0.3 grams/kg body weight) and tolbutamide (3 mg/kg body weight) tolerance test. RESULTS: The distributions of Si and acute insulin response were skewed to the right, whereas the distribution of Sg was Gaussian distributed. Sg was 15% higher in women compared with men (P < 0.001). Waist circumference, body mass index, maximal aerobic capacity, and women's use of oral contraceptives were the most important determinants of Si. Approximately one-third of the variation of Si could be explained by these factors. Compared with individuals in the upper four-fifths of the distribution of Si, subjects with Si in the lowest fifth had higher waist circumference, higher blood pressure, lower VO2max, and lower glucose tolerance and fasting dyslipidemia and dysfibrinolysis. Only 10% of the variation in acute insulin response could be explained by measured determinants. CONCLUSION: Estimates of body fat, maximal aerobic capacity, and women's use of oral contraceptives explain about one-third of the variation in Si in a population-based sample of young healthy Caucasians.

Significant reduction of the antiatherogenic effect of estrogen by long-term inhibition of nitric oxide synthesis in cholesterol-clamped rabbits.

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether endothelium-derived nitric oxide (NO) is involved in the plasma lipid-independent antiatherogenic effect of estrogen and levormeloxifene, a partial estrogen receptor agonist. 85 rabbits were ovariectomized and balloon-injured in the middle thoracic aorta. The rabbits were fed a cholesterol-enriched diet supplemented with 17beta-estradiol, levormeloxifene, or placebo, either alone, or together with 160 microg/ml NG-nitro- -arginine methyl ester (-NAME), an NO synthase inhibitor, in their drinking water for 12 wk. Plasma cholesterol was maintained at 25-30 mmol/liter by individualized cholesterol feeding. In the undamaged aorta, the extent of atherosclerosis in the estrogen group was only one-third that in the placebo group. Simultaneous administration of -NAME, however, significantly reduced the antiatherogenic effect of estrogen (P < 0.01). There was no significant difference between the placebo group given -NAME and the group treated with placebo alone. At the previously endothelium-denuded site, estrogen had no effect on atherosclerosis development, whereas -NAME combined with estrogen significantly increased atherogenesis (P < 0.05). The effects of levormeloxifene were almost similar to those of estrogen. Active vascular concentrations of -NAME were demonstrated in an additional study, in which maximal aortic/coronary endothelium-dependent relaxation was significantly inhibited in rabbits given -NAME. Thus, in this study a considerable part of the plasma lipid-independent antiatherogenic effect of estrogen was mediated through its effect on endothelial NO in cholesterol-fed rabbits. The results for levormeloxifene suggest a common mechanism of action for estrogen and partial estrogen receptor agonists on atherogenesis.

Effect of insulin analogues on frequency of non-severe hypoglycaemia in patients with type 1 diabetes prone to severe hypoglycaemia: The HypoAna trial.

AIM: Insulin analogues reduce the risk of hypoglycaemia compared with human insulin in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and minor hypoglycaemia problems. The HypoAna trial showed that, in patients with recurrent severe hypoglycaemia, treatment based on insulin analogues reduces the risk of severe hypoglycaemia. The present study aims to assess whether this also applies to non-severe hypoglycaemia events during the day and at night. METHODS: This 2-year investigator-initiated multicentre, prospective, randomized, open, blinded endpoint (PROBE) trial involved patients with T1D and at least two episodes of severe hypoglycaemia during the previous year. Using a balanced crossover design, patients were randomized to basal-bolus therapy based on analogue (detemir/aspart) or human (NPH/regular) insulins. A total of 114 participants were included. Endpoints were the number of severe hypoglycaemic events and non-severe events, including documented symptomatic and asymptomatic episodes occurring during the day and at night (ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT00346996). RESULTS: Analogue-based treatment resulted in a 6% (2-10%; P=0.0025) overall relative risk reduction of non-severe hypoglycaemia. This was due to a 39% (32-46%; P<0.0001) reduction of non-severe nocturnal hypoglycaemia, seen for both symptomatic (48% [36-57%]; P<0.0001) and asymptomatic (28% [14-39%]; P=0.0004) nocturnal hypoglycaemia episodes. No clinically significant differences in hypoglycaemia occurrence were observed between the insulin regimens during the day. The time needed to treat one patient with insulin analogues to avoid one episode (TNT1) of non-severe nocturnal hypoglycaemia was approximately 3 months. CONCLUSION: In T1D patients prone to severe hypoglycaemia, treatment with analogue insulin reduced the risk of non-severe nocturnal hypoglycaemia compared with human insulin.

Equivalent in vivo biological activity of insulin analogues and human insulin despite different in vitro potencies.

In vivo biological potency of two human insulin analogues, AspB9,GluB27 insulin and AspB10 insulin with low and high affinity to the insulin receptor, respectively, was assessed by intravenous infusion of equimolar amounts in pigs, with the euglycemic clamp technique. Human insulin and the low- and high-affinity analogues showed equivalent glucose utilization rates in the steady state (mean +/- SE 14.7 +/- 1.4, 12.7 +/- 1.5, and 12.2 +/- 1.2 mg.kg-1.min-1, respectively; n = 7). The corresponding plasma insulin levels, however, were markedly different (329 +/- 25 and 856 +/- 46 pM, P less than 0.05; 197 +/- 19 pM, P less than 0.05). There was an inverse relationship between the insulin levels and the in vitro activities measured by binding to human hepatoma cells (HepG2; 100, 20, and 308%) or by incorporation of glucose into lipids in mouse free fat cells (100, 31, and 207%). The total amount of glucose infused during and after insulin infusion was equal for the three insulins, whereas glucose utilization as a function of time was somewhat different. By describing the individual plasma concentration courses with an open two-compartment model with elimination from the receptor compartment, the time courses for binding and elimination of the three insulins in the receptor compartment were estimated. The effect seems closely linked to the elimination of insulin from the receptors rather than to the amount of insulin bound to the receptors. In conclusion, the total effect of equimolar amounts of human insulin and the two insulin analogues on glucose utilization is equal regardless of the different receptor affinities of the insulins.

Albuminuria and poor glycemic control predict mortality in NIDDM.

The impact of microalbuminuria and macroalbuminuria on mortality was evaluated prospectively in 328 Caucasian patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) followed for 5 years. One hundred ninety-one (109 men and 82 women) patients with normoalbuminuria (albumin excretion rate [AER] < 30 mg/24 h), 86 (50 men and 36 women) patients with microalbuminuria (AER 30-299 mg/24 h), and 51 (43 men and 8 women) patients with macroalbuminuria (AER > or = 300 mg/24 h) < 66 years old at entry were followed from 1987 until death or until 1 January 1993. Mean age at entry was 54 (SD 9) years. In January 1993, 8% of patients with normoalbuminuria, 20% of patients with microalbuminuria, and 35% of patients with macroalbuminuria had died (predominantly from cardiovascular disease) (P < 0.01 [normoalbuminuria versus micro- and macroalbuminuria] and P < 0.05 [microalbuminuria versus macroalbuminuria]). Cox multiple regression analysis revealed significant predictors of all-cause mortality to be preexisting coronary heart disease (relative risk [95% confidence interval]), 2.9 (1.6-5.1); log10AER (factor 10), 1.9 (1.4-2.6); HbA1c level (%), 1.2 (1.0-1.4); and age (years), 1.08 (1.03-1.13). Significant predictors of cardiovascular mortality included preexisting coronary heart disease, 6.1 (2.8-13.5); macroalbuminuria, 2.5 (1.1-5.8); HbA1c level (%), 1.3 (1.1-1.6); and systolic blood pressure (10 mmHg), 1.2 (1.0-1.4). Univariate Cox survival analysis in the normoalbuminuric group revealed that AER above the median of 8 mg/24 h was associated with an increased all-cause mortality risk of 2.7 (0.93-7.69) (P = 0.07).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Receptor binding and tyrosine kinase activation by insulin analogues with extreme affinities studied in human hepatoma HepG2 cells.

The insulin-receptor affinity of five human insulin analogues with one to four amino acid substitutions was measured with human hepatoma cells (HepG2). The binding affinities ranged from 0.05% for AspB25 insulin, 18% for AspB9, GluB27 insulin, 80% for AspB28 insulin, and 327% for AspB10 insulin to 687% for HisA8, HisB4, GluB10, HisB27 insulin relative to human insulin. Binding constants obtained by competition experiments at steady state with [125I]TyrA14-labeled insulin and unlabeled analogues and by kinetic studies with [125I]TyrA14-labeled analogues and insulin gave essentially the same values. The kinetic studies showed that differences in affinity between analogues were due to differences in both dissociation and association rate constants. The affinity for insulinlike growth factor I receptor was low, ranging from less than 0.005% for AspB25 insulin to 0.6% for HisA8, HisB4, GluB10, HisB27 insulin. The potencies of insulin analogues in activation of the tyrosine kinase of solubilized and partially purified insulin receptors from HepG2 cells, measured with the exogenous substrate poly(Glu80-Tyr20), ranked in the same order as the binding affinities, the actual values being somewhat elevated for the high-affinity analogues, however. We conclude that these human insulin analogues are active in insulin-receptor binding and tyrosine kinase stimulation but show wide variation in affinity.

Comparison of metabolic control in a cross-sectional study of 2,873 children and adolescents with IDDM from 18 countries. The Hvidøre Study Group on Childhood Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To obtain an estimate of the current level of metabolic control in children and adolescents with IDDM, the Hvidøre Study Group on Childhood Diabetes decided to establish a formal collaboration among countries to gather and exchange data for comparative purposes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This cross-sectional non-population-based survey involved 22 pediatric departments from 18 countries in Europe, Japan, and North America. Blood samples and information were collected from March through August 1995 on 2,873 children who were born in 1977 or later and seen in the outpatient clinics. HbA1c levels were determined once and analyzed centrally (normal range, 4.4-6.3%; mean, 5.4%). Year of birth, sex, duration of diabetes, height, body weight, insulin regimen, and number of episodes of severe hypoglycemia during the past 3 months were recorded. RESULTS: Average HbA1c was 8.6 +/- 1.7%, but varied significantly (P < 0.0001) between centers. Hypoglycemia resulting in unconsciousness and/or seizures was related to younger age (0-8 years) and lower HbA1c level. The incidence, based on the 3-month period, was 22 per 100 patient-years. Sixty percent of the children (n = 1,707) had two injections daily, while 37% (n = 1,071) were on three or more. HbA1c increased during maturation for both sexes. No difference in glycemic control was found among adolescents treated with two, three, and four or more daily injections. Adolescents on four or more injections received significantly (P < 0.001) more insulin. Girls on four or more injections had significantly (P < 0.01) higher BMI than girls on twice-daily insulin. CONCLUSIONS: In the participating centers with a multidisciplinary team, only one third of the patients had an HbA1c level of < 8%.

Persistent differences among centers over 3 years in glycemic control and hypoglycemia in a study of 3,805 children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes from the Hvidøre Study Group.

OBJECTIVE: Twenty-one international pediatric diabetes centers from 17 countries investigated the effect of simple feedback about the grand mean HbA(1c) level of all centers and the average value of each center on changes in metabolic control, rate of severe hypoglycemia, and insulin therapy over a 3-year period. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Clinical data collection and determination of HbA(1c) levels were conducted at a central location in 1995 (n = 2,780, age 0-18 years) and 1998 (n = 2,101, age 11-18 years). RESULTS: Striking differences in average HbA(1c) concentrations were found among centers; these differences remained after adjustment for the significant confounders of sex, age, and diabetes duration. They were apparent even in patients with short diabetes duration and remained stable 3 years later (mean adjusted HbA(1c) level: 8.62 +/- 0.03 vs. 8.67 +/- 0.04 [1995 vs. 1998, respectively]). Three centers had improved significantly, four centers had deteriorated significantly in their overall adjusted HbA(1c) levels, and 14 centers had not changed in glycemic control. During the observation period, there were increases in the adjusted insulin dose by 0.076 U/kg, the adjusted number of injections by 0.23 injections per day, and the adjusted BMI by 0.95 kg/m(2). The 1995 versus 1998 difference in glycemic control for the seven centers could not be explained by prevailing insulin regimens or rates of hypoglycemia. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals significant outcome differences among large international pediatric diabetes centers. Feedback and comparison of HbA(1c) levels led to an intensification of insulin therapy in most centers, but improved glycemic control in only a few.

Good metabolic control is associated with better quality of life in 2,101 adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: It is unclear whether the demands of good metabolic control or the consequences of poor control have a greater influence on quality of life (QOL) for adolescents with diabetes. This study aimed to assess these relations in a large international cohort of adolescents with diabetes and their families. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The study involved 2,101 adolescents, aged 10-18 years, from 21 centers in 17 countries in Europe, Japan, and North America. Clinical and demographic data were collected from March through August 1998. HbA(1c) was analyzed centrally (normal range 4.4-6.3%; mean 5.4%). Adolescent QOL was assessed by a previously developed Diabetes Quality of Life (DQOL) questionnaire for adolescents, measuring the impact of diabetes, worries about diabetes, satisfaction with life, and health perception. Parents and health professionals assessed family burden using newly constructed questionnaires. RESULTS: Mean HbA(1c) was 8.7% (range 4.8-17.4). Lower HbA(1c) was associated with lower impact (P < 0.0001), fewer worries (P < 0.05), greater satisfaction (P < 0.0001), and better health perception (P < 0.0001) for adolescents. Girls showed increased worries (P < 0.01), less satisfaction, and poorer health perception (P < 0.01) earlier than boys. Parent and health professional perceptions of burden decreased with age of adolescent (P < 0.0001). Patients from ethnic minorities had poorer scores for impact (P < 0.0001), worries (P < 0.05), and health perception (P < 0.01). There was no correlation between adolescent and parent or between adolescent and professional scores. CONCLUSIONS: In a multiple regression model, lower HbA(1c) was significantly associated with better adolescent-rated QOL on all four subscales and with lower perceived family burden as assessed by parents and health professionals.

Dynamic evaluation of prognosis from time-dependent variables in acute myocardial infarction.

For predicting the 3 endpoints death, cardiac arrest, and cardiogenic shock within 44 days after admission for acute myocardial infarction (MI), a competing risk variant of the Cox multivariate model was developed. The population consisted of 1,140 patients with definite MI admitted within 24 hours of onset of symptoms. Prognostic variables from the entire hospitalization period were assessed. The time-dependent variables (occurrence of complications) were evaluated with occurrence up through the day before the actual prediction period started. The important prognostic variables for the endpoint death were ventricular fibrillation, age, congestive heart failure, and asystole. Variables for the endpoint cardiac arrest were congestive heart failure, ventricular premature beats, supraventricular tachycardia, extension of MI, and age. Variables for the endpoint cardiogenic shock were cardiac arrest, age, congestive heart failure, previous MI, and nodal rhythm. By using a hazard function for each endpoint and the coefficients for the variables entered, it is possible to estimate a total risk of death, cardiac arrest, or cardiogenic shock for the individual patient. This prediction can be updated during the course of hospitalization according to the occurrence of the new complications. The model can be directly utilized to assess risk.

Prognostic significance of differential cell counts in non-Hodgkin's lymphomas.

The use of differential counting on H & E stained sections is proposed as a simple means to define low grade malignant and high grade malignant cytologic categories in non-Hodgkin's lymphomas. Differential counts were performed in lymphoma biopsies from 616 cases. In each biopsy we counted 100 lymphoma cells and classified each cell as belonging to a "small", "medium-sized", or "large" cell type. The results indicate the presence of two prognostically distinct cytologic categories: a low grade and a high grade malignant. Lymphomas with less than 10% "large" cells represented low grade malignant cytology. Included in this category were also the, mainly follicular, lymphomas with more then 70% "medium-sized" cells (up to about 25% "large" cells). In addition to the cytologic category, the architectural pattern is of major prognostic importance. We recommend the use of three prognostic categories in non-Hodgkin's lymphomas: I) Favourable architecture + favourable cytology. II) Unfavourable architecture + favourable cytology. III) Unfavourable cytology.

A 6-year nationwide cohort study of glycaemic control in young people with type 1 diabetes. Risk markers for the development of retinopathy, nephropathy and neuropathy. Danish Study Group of Diabetes in Childhood.

The study aimed to identify risk markers (present at the start of the study in 1989) for the occurrence and progression of microvascular complications 6 years later (in 1995) in a Danish nationwide cohort of children and adolescents with Type 1 diabetes (average age at entry 13.7 years). Probabilities for the development of elevated albumin excretion rate (AER), retinopathy, and increased vibration perception threshold (VPT) could then be estimated from a stepwise logistic regression model. A total of 339 patients (47% of the original cohort) were studied. Sex, age, diabetes duration, insulin regimen and dose, height, weight, HbA(1c), blood pressure, and AER were recorded. In addition, information on retinopathy, neuropathy (VPT), and anti-hypertensive treatment was obtained at the end of the study. HbA(1c) (normal range 4.3-5.8, mean 5.3%) and AER (upper normal limit <20 microg min(-1)) in two, timed overnight urine collections were analysed centrally. Eye examination was performed by two-field fundus photography. Determination of VPT was assessed by biothesiometry. Increased AER (> or =20 microg min(-1)) was found in 12.8% of the patients in 1995, and risk markers for this were increased AER and high HbA(1c), in 1989 (both p<0.001). Retinopathy was present in 57.8% of patients in 1995, for which the risk markers were long duration of diabetes (p<0.0001), age (p<0.01), and high HbA(1c) (p<0.0001) in 1989. Elevated VPT (>6.5 V) was found in 62.5% of patients in 1995, for which the risk markers were male sex (p<0.05), age (p<0.0001), and increased AER (p<0.05) in 1989. This study confirms that hyperglycaemia plays a major role for the development of microvascular complications in kidneys and eyes, and emphasises the need for optimal glycaemic control in children and adolescents with Type 1 diabetes.

NovoSol Basal: pharmacokinetics of a novel soluble long acting insulin analogue.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the courses of absorption and the interindividual and intraindividual variations in absorption of iodine-125 labelled Ultratard HM and NovoSol Basal injected subcutaneously. DESIGN: Open randomised crossover study. Each patient was tested during two study periods of five days each, during which he or she received a subcutaneous injection of either 125I-NovoSol Basal or 125I-Ultratard HM on four consecutive days. The aim was to detect a reduction in intraindividual standard deviation by a factor of two with a probability 0.95, taking 0.05 as the level of significance. This required 24 degrees of freedom and led to the choice of four courses in each of eight patients. SETTING: Referrals to the diabetes research centre in Hvidøre, Copenhagen. PATIENTS: Eight insulin dependent (type I) diabetics with low or undetectable C peptide concentrations who were receiving a multiple insulin injection regimen. One patient withdrew immediately after recruitment. INTERVENTIONS: After an overnight fast patients received 96 nmol (16 IU insulin) of either 125I-NovoSol Basal or 125I-Ultratard HM injected subcutaneously into the thigh. To ensure that the insulin entered the subcutaneous fat at the same depth, ultrasonography was performed on each patient before the first injection. A different injection site on the thigh was used each day for four days in order to facilitate monitoring of the disappearance of four different depots in each patient. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Residual activity at the injection site was measured roughly every two hours throughout the day. No radioactivity measurements were performed overnight (10 pm till 8 am). The residual radioactivity after the injection on the first day (upper right thigh) was recorded for five days, that after the injection on the second day (upper left thigh) for four days, after the injection on the third day (lower right thigh) for three days, and after the last injection (lower left thigh) for two days. RESULTS: NovoSol Basal was absorbed according to first order kinetics with a mean t50% of 35.3 (SEM 1.4) hours; Ultratard HM was absorbed after a lag phase and the corresponding t50% was 25.5 (2.5) hours. The intraindividual variations in t50% were significantly smaller with NovoSol Basal than with Ultratard HM (18.4% v 44.5%; p less than 0.001). Interindividual variations, however, were not significantly different (25.2% v 36.9%; p = 0.38). The total variation in t50% was substantially smaller with NovoSol Basal than with Ultratard HM (20.3% v 42.8%). CONCLUSIONS: NovoSol Basal seems to be an appreciable advance over Ultratard HM as a soluble insulin preparation for obtaining reproducible 24 hour insulin concentrations in the blood

Risk factors for development of incipient and overt diabetic nephropathy in patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus: prospective, observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate putative risk factors for the development of incipient diabetic nephropathy (persistent microalbuminuria) and overt diabetic nephropathy (persistent macroalbuminuria) in patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes. DESIGN: Prospective, observational study of a cohort of white, non-insulin dependent diabetic patients followed for a median period of 5.8 years. SETTING: Outpatient clinic in tertiary referral centre. SUBJECTS: 191 patients aged under 66 years with non-insulin dependent diabetes and normoalbuminuria (urinary albumin excretion rate < 30 mg/24 h) who attended the clinic during 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incipient and overt diabetic nephropathy. RESULTS: Fifteen patients were lost to follow up. Thirty six of the 176 remaining developed persistent microalbuminuria (30-299 mg/24 h in two out of three consecutive 24 hour urine collections) and five developed persistent macroalbuminuria (> or = mg/24 h in two out of three consecutive collections) during follow up. The five year cumulative incidence of incipient diabetic nephropathy was 23% (95% confidence interval 17% to 30%). Cox's multiple stepwise regression analysis revealed the following risk factors for the development of incipient or overt diabetic nephropathy: increased baseline log urinary albumin excretion rate (relative risk 11.1 (3.4 to 35.9); P < 0.0001); male sex (2.6 (1.2 to 5.4); P < 0.02); presence of retinopathy (2.4 (1.3 to 4.7); P < 0.01); increased serum cholesterol concentration (1.4 (1.1 to 1.7); P < 0.01); haemoglobin A1c concentration (1.2 (1.0 to 1.4); P < 0.05); and age (1.07 (1.02 to 1.12); P < 0.01). Known duration of diabetes, body mass index, arterial blood pressure, serum creatinine concentration, pre-existing coronary heart disease, and history of smoking were not risk factors. CONCLUSION: Several potentially modifiable risk factors predict the development of incipient and overt diabetic nephropathy in normoalbuminuric patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes.

Predictors of mortality in insulin dependent diabetes: 10 year observational follow up study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic significance of microalbuminuria and overt diabetic nephropathy and other putative risk factors for cardiovascular and all cause mortality in insulin dependent diabetes. DESIGN: Ten year observational follow up study. SETTING: Outpatient diabetic clinic in a tertiary referral centre. SUBJECTS: All 939 adults with insulin dependent diabetes (duration of diabetes five years or more) attending the clinic in 1984; 593 had normal urinary albumin excretion (< or = 30 mg/24 h), 181 persistent microalbuminuria (31-299 mg/24 h), and 165 overt nephropathy (> or = 300 mg/24 h). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All cause and cardiovascular mortality. RESULTS: Fifteen per cent of patients (90/593) with normoalbuminuria, 25% (45/181) with microalbuminuria, and 44% (72/165) with overt nephropathy at baseline died during follow up. Cox multiple regression analysis identified the following significant predictors of all cause mortality: male sex (relative risk 2.03; 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 3.02), age (1.07; 1.06 to 1.08), height (0.96; 0.94 to 0.98), smoking (1.51; 1.09 to 2.08), social class V versus social class IV (1.70; 1.25 to 2.31), log10 urinary albumin excretion (1.45; 1.18 to 1.77), hypertension (1.63; 1.18 to 2.25), log10 serum creatinine concentration (8.96; 3.34 to 24.08), and haemoglobin A1c concentration (1.11; 1.03 to 1.20). Age, smoking, microalbuminuria, overt nephropathy, and hypertension were significant predictors of cardiovascular mortality. Mortality in patients with microalbuminuria was only slightly increased compared with that in patients with normoalbuminuria. Median survival time after the onset of overt diabetic nephropathy was 13.9 years (95% confidence interval 11.8 to 17.2 years). CONCLUSIONS: Abnormally increased urinary albumin excretion and other potentially modifiable risk factors such as hypertension, smoking, poor glycaemic control, and social class predict increased mortality in insulin dependent diabetes. Microalbuminuria by itself confers only a small increase in mortality. The prognosis of patients with overt diabetic nephropathy has improved, probably owing to effective antihypertensive treatment.