A clinical tool to identify older women with back pain at high risk of osteoporotic vertebral fractures (Vfrac): a population-based cohort study with exploratory economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: osteoporotic vertebral fractures (OVFs) identify people at high risk of future fractures, but despite this, less than a third come to clinical attention. The objective of this study was to develop a clinical tool to aid health care professionals decide which older women with back pain should have a spinal radiograph. METHODS: a population-based cohort of 1,635 women aged 65+ years with self-reported back pain in the previous 4 months were recruited from primary care. Exposure data were collected through self-completion questionnaires and physical examination, including descriptions of back pain and traditional risk factors for osteoporosis. Outcome was the presence/absence of OVFs on spinal radiographs. Logistic regression models identified independent predictors of OVFs, with the area under the (receiver operating) curve calculated for the final model, and a cut-point was identified. RESULTS: mean age was 73.9 years and 209 (12.8%) had OVFs. The final Vfrac model comprised 15 predictors of OVF, with an AUC of 0.802 (95% CI: 0.764-0.840). Sensitivity was 72.4% and specificity was 72.9%. Vfrac identified 93% of those with more than one OVF and two-thirds of those with one OVF. Performance was enhanced by inclusion of self-reported back pain descriptors, removal of which reduced AUC to 0.742 (95% CI: 0.696-0.788) and sensitivity to 66.5%. Health economic modelling to support a future trial was favourable. CONCLUSIONS: the Vfrac clinical tool appears to be valid and is improved by the addition of self-reported back pain symptoms. The tool now requires testing to establish real-world clinical and cost-effectiveness.

Patients Receiving a Primary Unicompartmental Knee Replacement Have a Higher Risk of Revision but a Lower Risk of Mortality Than Predicted Had They Received a Total Knee Replacement: Data From the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man.

BACKGROUND: To determine unicompartmental (UKR) and total knee replacement (TKR) revision rates, compare UKR revision rates with what they would have been had they received TKR instead, and assess subsequent re-revision and 90-day mortality rates. METHODS: Using National Joint Registry data, we estimated UKR and TKR revision and mortality rates. Flexible parametric survival modeling (FPM) was used to model failure in TKR and make estimates for UKR. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to compare cumulative re-revision for revised UKRs and TKRs. RESULTS: Ten-year UKR revision rates were 2.5 times higher than expected from TKR, equivalent to 70 excess revisions/1000 cases within 10 years (5861 excess revisions in this cohort). Revision rates were 2.5 times higher for the highest quartile volume UKR surgeons compared to the same quartile for TKR and 3.9 times higher for the lowest quartiles respectively. Re-revision rates of revised TKRs (10 years = 17.5%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 16.4-18.7) were similar to revised UKRs (15.2%, 95% CI 13.4-17.1) and higher than revision rates following primary TKR (3.3%, 95% CI 3.1-3.5). Ninety-day mortality rates were lower after UKR compared with TKR (0.08% vs 0.33%) and lower than predicted had UKR patients received a TKR (0.18%), equivalent to 1 fewer death per 1000 cases. CONCLUSION: UKR revision rates were substantially higher than TKR even when demographics and caseload differences were accounted for; however, fewer deaths occur after UKR. This should be considered when forming treatment guidelines and commissioning services. Re-revision rates were similar between revised UKRs and TKRs, but considerably higher than for primary TKR, therefore UKR cannot be considered an intermediate procedure.

A Comparison of the Surgical Practice of Potential Revision Outlier Joint Replacement Surgeons With Non-outliers: A Case Control Study From the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man.

BACKGROUND: The National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man (NJR) has monitored the performance of consultant surgeons performing primary total hip (THR) or knee replacements (KR) since 2007. The aims of this study were: 1) To describe the surgical practice of consultant hip and knee replacement surgeons in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR), stratified by potential outlier status for revisions. 2) To compare the practice of revision outlier and non-outlier surgeons. METHODS: We combined NJR primary THR and KR data from 2008-2017 separately with relevant anonymised NJR outlier notification records. We described the surgical practice of outliers and non-outliers by surgical workload, implant choice, and patients' clinical and demographic characteristics. We explored associations between surgeon-level factors and outlier status with conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: We included 764,888 primary THRs by 3213 surgeons and 889,954 primary KRs by 3084 surgeons performed between 2008-2017. One hundred and eleven (3.5%) THR and 114 (3.7%) KR consultant surgeons were potential revision outliers. Surgeons who used more types of implant had increased odds of being an outlier (KR: OR/additional implant = 1.35, 95%CI 1.17-1.55; THR: OR = 1.12, 95%CI 1.06-1.18). CONCLUSIONS: The use of more types of implant is associated with increased risk of being a potential revision outlier. Further research is required to understand why surgeons use many different implants and to what extent this is responsible for the effects observed here.

The effect of surgical approach in total hip replacement on outcomes: an analysis of 723,904 elective operations from the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man.

BACKGROUND: Total hip replacement (THR) is clinically and cost-effective. The surgical approach employed influences the outcome; however, there is little generalisable and robust evidence to guide practice. METHODS: A total of 723,904 primary THRs captured in the National Joint Registry, linked to hospital inpatient, mortality and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) data with up to 13.75 years follow-up, were analysed. There were seven surgical approach groups: conventional posterior, lateral, anterior and trans-trochanteric groups and minimally invasive posterior, lateral and anterior. Survival methods were used to compare revision rates and 90-day mortality. Groups were compared using Cox proportional hazards and Flexible Parametric Survival Modelling (FPM). Confounders included age at surgery, sex, risk group (indications additional to osteoarthritis), American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, THR fixation, thromboprophylaxis, anaesthetic, body mass index (BMI) and deprivation. PROMs were analysed with regression modelling or non-parametric methods. RESULTS: Unadjusted analysis showed a higher revision risk than the referent conventional posterior for the conventional lateral, minimally invasive lateral, minimally invasive anterior and trans-trochanteric groups. This persisted with all adjusted FPM and adjusted Cox models, except in the Cox model including BMI where the higher revision rate only persisted for the conventional lateral approach (hazard rate ratio (HRR) 1.12 [95% CI 1.06,1.17] P < 0·001) and trans-trochanteric approaches (HRR 1.48 [95% CI 1.14,1.91] P = 0.003). PROMs demonstrated statistically, but not clinically, significant differences. Self-reported complications were more frequent with the conventional lateral approach, and the risk of 90-day mortality was higher (HRR 1.15 [95%CI 1.01-1.30] P = 0.029). CONCLUSIONS: Lateral approaches for THR are associated with worse outcomes, including more deaths and revisions, than the posterior approach. We recommend the posterior approach should be considered the current standard approach for THR. Large well-designed studies are needed to assess any potential benefits from using minimally invasive posterior approaches and the conventional anterior approach.

Change in obesity-related metabolic abnormalities associated with body mass index improvement through life-style intervention: A meta-regression.

The reduction in body mass index standard deviation score (BMI-SDS) associated with improvement in biomarkers relating to metabolic health in obese children is unknown. We aimed to establish the change in BMI-SDS associated with improved inflammation, liver function, and insulin resistance to inform clinical guidelines for pediatric weight management interventions and to assess the efficacy of future trials. A large-scale systematic review was conducted to identify relevant studies. Studies of children with a diagnosis of obesity according to defined BMI thresholds, participating in lifestyle interventions to reduce obesity, were included. Studies must have reported baseline (pre-) and postintervention (or change of) BMI-SDS and either fasting glucose, homeostatic model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), C-reactive protein (CRP), or interleukin-6 (IL-6). A series of meta-regressions were conducted to establish links between BMI-SDS change scores and change in metabolic markers of health. Sixty-eight articles were identified. From the meta-regression analyses, across all study subsets, greater mean falls in all four parameters, (HOMA-IR, Glucose, ALT, and CRP) were observed with greater mean loss of BMI-SDS, but the trends were only statistically significant for HOMA-IR and CRP (P = .003; P = .021). However, we could not find minimum changes in BMI-SDS that would ensure a fall in these outcomes. At this time, we are unable to recommend a definitive value of BMI-SDS reduction needed to improve the markers of metabolic health. Future trials should aim to report additional indices of derived BMI values, which may better reflect changes in actual adiposity.

Choice of Prosthetic Implant Combinations in Total Hip Replacement: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Using UK and Swedish Hip Joint Registries Data.

BACKGROUND: Prosthetic implants used in total hip replacements (THR) have a range of bearing surface combinations (metal-on-polyethylene, ceramic-on-polyethylene, ceramic-on-ceramic, and metal-on-metal), head sizes (small [<36 mm in diameter] and large [≥36 mm in diameter]), and fixation techniques (cemented, uncemented, hybrid, and reverse hybrid). These can influence prosthesis survival, patients' quality of life, and healthcare costs. OBJECTIVES: To compare the lifetime cost-effectiveness of implants for patients of different age and sex profiles. METHODS: We developed a Markov model to compare the cost-effectiveness of various implants against small-head cemented metal-on-polyethylene implants. The probability that patients required 1 or more revision surgeries was estimated from analyses of more than 1 million patients in the UK and Swedish hip joint registries, for men and women younger than 55, 55 to 64, 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and 85 years and older. Implant and healthcare costs were estimated from local procurement prices, national tariffs, and the literature. Quality-adjusted life-years were calculated using published utility estimates for patients undergoing THR in the United Kingdom. RESULTS: Small-head cemented metal-on-polyethylene implants were the most cost-effective for men and women older than 65 years. These findings were robust to sensitivity analyses. Small-head cemented ceramic-on-polyethylene implants were most cost-effective in men and women younger than 65 years, but these results were more uncertain. CONCLUSIONS: The older the patient group, the more likely that the cheapest implants, small-head cemented metal-on-polyethylene implants, were cost-effective. We found no evidence that uncemented, hybrid, or reverse hybrid implants were the most cost-effective option for any patient group. Our findings can influence clinical practice and procurement decisions for healthcare payers worldwide.

Corporate Logic in Clinical Care: The Case of Diabetes Management.

As large corporations come to dominate U.S. health care, clinical medicine is increasingly market-driven and governed by business principles. We examine ways in which health insurers and health care systems are transforming the goals and means of clinical practice. Based on ethnographic research of diabetes management in a large health care system, we argue that together these organizations redefine clinical care in terms that prioritize financial goals and managerial logics, above the needs of individual patients. We demonstrate how emphasis on quality metrics reduces clinical work to quantifiable outcomes, redefining diabetes management to be the pursuit of narrowly defined goal numbers, despite often serious health consequences of treatment. As corporate employees, clinicians are compelled to pursue goal numbers by the heavy emphasis payers and health systems place on quality metrics, and accessing the required medications becomes the central focus of clinical practice.

Cognitive behavioural therapy stabilises glycaemic control in adolescents with type 1 diabetes-Outcomes from a randomised control trial.

BACKGROUND: To compare the impact of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) with non-directive supportive counselling (NDC) on glycaemic control and psychological well-being in adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Participants aged 11 to 16 years with T1DM (duration ≥1 year) from 4 UK-based paediatric diabetes centres were randomised to receive either 6 weekly sessions of 1-to-1 CBT (n = 43) or NDC (n = 42), with 2 further sessions at 6 and 12 months. Follow-up continued for 12 months postintervention. Outcome measures included glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and psychological scores. RESULTS: The HbA1c levels were available in 33 patients in each group for analysis. Between group difference of the overall changes in HbA1c across the study period was statically significant (P = .018). Geometric mean (range) HbA1c in the NDC group deteriorated from 68 (46-113) to 78 (48-128) mmol/mol (ie, 8.4 [6.4-12.5]% to 9.3 [6.5-13.9]%; P = .001), but was maintained in the CBT group from 72 (46-129) to 73 (51-128) mmol/mol (P = .51) (ie, 8.7 [6.4-14]% to 8.9 [6.8-13.9]%). More patients who have undergone CBT showed an improved or maintained HbA1c levels at 24 months (62.5% vs 35.5%, P = .032). Patients offered CBT with depressive scores in the lowest tertile (least depressive symptoms) showed improvement in HbA1c over time from 70 (46-102) to 67 (57-87) mmol/mol (P = .041) (ie, 8.6 [6.4-11.5]% to 8.3 [7.4-10.1]%), but not in the NDC group. The CBT showed borderline improvements in Children's Health Locus of Control (internal) scores over time compared with NDC (P = .05). The self-efficacy score showed significant improvement in both CBT (P < .001) and NDC (P = .03) groups over time. CONCLUSIONS: CBT demonstrated better maintenance of glycaemic control compared with NDC.

Infrared Radiation in the Thermosphere Near the End of Solar Cycle 24.

Observations of thermospheric infrared radiative cooling by carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO) from 2002 to 2018 are presented. The time span covers more than 6,000 days including most of solar cycle (SC) 23 and the entirety of SC 24 to date. Maxima of infrared cooling rate profiles (nW/m3) are smaller during SC 24 than SC 23, indicating a cooler thermosphere. Rates of global infrared power (W) from CO2 are now at levels observed during the deep solar minimum of 2009. Rates of NO power are still larger than those observed during 2009 and are being maintained at an elevated level by geomagnetic activity. During SC 24 to date, the thermosphere has radiated 70% of the energy of the mean of the past five cycles and would require an additional 1,690 days at current infrared radiation rates to reach that amount.

Space-Based Sentinels for Measurement of Infrared Cooling in the Thermosphere for Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting.

Infrared radiative cooling by nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) modulates the thermosphere's density and thermal response to geomagnetic storms. Satellite tracking and collision avoidance planning require accurate density forecasts during these events. Over the past several years, failed density forecasts have been tied to the onset of rapid and significant cooling due to production of NO and its associated radiative cooling via emission of infrared radiation at 5.3 µm. These results have been diagnosed, after the fact, through analyses of measurements of infrared cooling made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument now in orbit over 16 years on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. Radiative cooling rates for NO and CO2 have been further shown to be directly correlated with composition and exospheric temperature changes during geomagnetic storms. These results strongly suggest that a network of smallsats observing the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere could serve as space weather sentinels. These sentinels would observe and provide radiative cooling rate data in real time to generate nowcasts of density and aerodynamic drag on space vehicles. Currently, radiative cooling is not directly considered in operational space weather forecast models. In addition, recent research has shown that different geomagnetic storm types generate substantially different infrared radiative response, and hence, substantially different thermospheric density response. The ability to identify these storms, and to measure and predict the Earth's response to them, should enable substantial improvement in thermospheric density forecasts.

"They Treat you a Different Way:" Public Insurance, Stigma, and the Challenge to Quality Health Care.

Under the Affordable Care Act, Medicaid Expansion programs are extending Medicaid eligibility and increasing access to care. However, stigma associated with public insurance coverage may importantly affect the nature and content of the health care beneficiaries receive. In this paper, we examine the health care stigma experiences described by a group of low-income public insurance beneficiaries. They perceive stigma as manifest in poor quality care and negative interpersonal interactions in the health care setting. Using an intersectional approach, we found that the stigma of public insurance was compounded with other sources of stigma including socioeconomic status, race, gender, and illness status. Experiences of stigma had important implications for how subjects evaluated the quality of care, their decisions impacting continuity of care, and their reported ability to access health care. We argue that stigma challenges the quality of care provided under public insurance and is thus a public health issue that should be addressed in Medicaid policy.

Electronic Health Records and the Disappearing Patient.

With rapid consolidation of American medicine into large-scale corporations, corporate strategies are coming to the forefront in health care delivery, requiring a dramatic increase in the amount and detail of documentation, implemented through use of electronic health records (EHRs). EHRs are structured to prioritize the interests of a myriad of political and corporate stakeholders, resulting in a complex, multi-layered, and cumbersome health records system, largely not directly relevant to clinical care. Drawing on observations conducted in outpatient specialty clinics, we consider how EHRs prioritize institutional needs manifested as a long list of requisites that must be documented with each consultation. We argue that the EHR enforces the centrality of market principles in clinical medicine, redefining the clinician's role to be less of a medical expert and more of an administrative bureaucrat, and transforming the patient into a digital entity with standardized conditions, treatments, and goals, without a personal narrative.

Counterproductive Consequences of a Conservative Ideology: Medicaid Expansion and Personal Responsibility Requirements.

Medicaid expansion, a key part of the Affordable Care Act, has been opposed by conservative politicians despite its fiscal and public health benefits. In response, some Republican-led states have expanded Medicaid with new reforms, including requirements for cost sharing and behavioral incentives, that promote conservative political values tied to an ideology of personal responsibility. We examine this trend using Michigan's Medicaid expansion as a case example. We explore the origins, evidence base, and possible consequences of these reforms. We argue that these reforms prioritize ideology over sound public health knowledge, deflecting attention away from the social, economic, and structural factors that influence the health of the poor, and may ultimately contribute to counterproductive public health and fiscal outcomes.

The global infrared energy budget of the thermosphere from 1947 to 2016 and implications for solar variability.

We present an empirical model of the global infrared energy budget of the thermosphere over the past 70 years. The F 10.7, Ap, and Dst indices are used in linear regression fits to the 14.5 year time series of radiative cooling by carbon dioxide and nitric oxide measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the TIMED satellite. Databases of these indices are used to develop the radiative cooling time series from 1947. No consistent relation between the occurrence of peak sunspot number and peak infrared cooling is found over the past six solar cycles. The total infrared energy radiated by the thermosphere, integrated over a solar cycle, is nearly constant over five complete solar cycles studied. This is a direct consequence of the geoeffective solar energy also being nearly constant over the same intervals. These results provide a new metric for assessing the terrestrial context of the long-term record of solar-related indices.

The spectroscopic foundation of radiative forcing of climate by carbon dioxide.

The radiative forcing (RF) of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the leading contribution to climate change from anthropogenic activities. Calculating CO2 RF requires detailed knowledge of spectral line parameters for thousands of infrared absorption lines. A reliable spectroscopic characterization of CO2 forcing is critical to scientific and policy assessments of present climate and climate change. Our results show that CO2 RF in a variety of atmospheres is remarkably insensitive to known uncertainties in the three main CO2 spectroscopic parameters: the line shapes, line strengths, and half widths. We specifically examine uncertainty in RF due to line mixing as this process is critical in determining line shapes in the far wings of CO2 absorption lines. RF computed with a Voigt line shape is also examined. Overall, the spectroscopic uncertainty in present-day CO2 RF is less than 1%, indicating a robust foundation in our understanding of how rising CO2 warms the climate system.

Good outcome of total hip replacement in patients with cerebral palsy: A comparison of 389 patients and 425,813 controls from the National Joint Registry for England and Wales.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: People with cerebral palsy (CP) often have painful deformed hips, but they are seldom treated with hip replacement as the surgery is considered to be high risk. However, few data are available on the outcome of hip replacement in these patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We linked Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) records to the National Joint Registry for England and Wales to identify 389 patients with CP who had undergone hip replacement. Their treatment and outcomes were compared with those of 425,813 patients who did not have CP. Kaplan-Meier estimates were calculated to describe implant survivorship and the curves were compared using log-rank tests, with further stratification for age and implant type. Reasons for revision were quantified as patient-time incidence rates (PTIRs). Nationally collected patient-reported outcomes (PROMS) before and 6 months after operation were compared if available. Cumulative mortality (Kaplan-Meier) was estimated at 90 days and at 1, 3, and 5 years. RESULTS: The cumulative probability of revision at 5 years post-surgery was 6.4% (95% CI: 3.8-11) in the CP cohort as opposed to 2.9% (CI 2.9-3%) in the non-CP cohort (p < 0.001). Patient-reported outcomes showed that CP patients had worse pain and function preoperatively, but had equivalent postoperative improvement. The median improvement in Oxford hip score at 6 months was 23 (IQR: 14-28) in CP and it was 21 (14-28) in non-CP patients. 91% of CP patients reported good or excellent satisfaction with their outcome. The cumulative probability of mortality for CP up to 7 years was similar to that in the controls after stratification for age and sex. INTERPRETATION: Hip replacement for cerebral palsy appears to be safe and effective, although implant revision rates are higher than those in patients without cerebral palsy.

45-day mortality after 467,779 knee replacements for osteoarthritis from the National Joint Registry for England and Wales: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the risk factors for early death after knee replacement could help to reduce the risk of mortality after this procedure. We assessed secular trends in death within 45 days of knee replacement for osteoarthritis in England and Wales, with the aim of investigating whether any change that we recorded could be explained by alterations in modifiable perioperative factors. METHODS: We took data for knee replacements done for osteoarthritis in England and Wales between April 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2011, from the National Joint Registry for England and Wales. Patient identifiers were used to link these data to the national mortality database and the Hospital Episode Statistics database to obtain details of death, sociodemographics, and comorbidity. We assessed mortality within 45 days by Kaplan-Meier analysis and assessed the role of patient and treatment factors by Cox proportional hazards models. FINDINGS: 467,779 primary knee replacements were done to treat osteoarthritis during 9 years. 1183 patients died within 45 days of surgery, with a substantial secular decrease in mortality from 0·37% in 2003 to 0·20% in 2011, even after adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidity. The use of unicompartmental knee replacement was associated with substantially lower mortality than was total knee replacement (hazard ratio [HR] 0·32, 95% CI 0·19­0·54, p<0·0005). Several comorbidities were associated with increased mortality: myocardial infarction (HR 3·46, 95% CI 2·81­4·14, p<0·0005), cerebrovascular disease (3·35, 2·7­4·14, p<0·0005), moderate/severe liver disease (7·2, 3·93­13·21, p<0·0005), and renal disease (2·18, 1·76­2·69, p<0·0005). Modifiable perioperative risk factors, including surgical approach and thromboprophylaxis were not associated with mortality. INTERPRETATION: Postoperative mortality after knee replacement has fallen substantially between 2003 and 2011. Efforts to further reduce mortality should concentrate more on older patients, those who are male and those with specific comorbidities, such as myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease, liver disease, and renal disease. FUNDING: National Joint Registry for England and Wales.

Treatment efficacy of sacral nerve stimulation in slow transit constipation: a two-phase, double-blind randomized controlled crossover study.

OBJECTIVES: Sacral nerve stimulation (SNS) is a potential treatment for constipation refractory to standard therapies. However, there have been no randomized controlled studies examining its efficacy. In patients with slow transit constipation, we evaluated the efficacy of suprasensory and subsensory SNS compared with sham, in a prospective, 18-week randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, two-phase crossover study. The primary outcome measure was the proportion of patients who, on more than 2 days/week for at least 2 of 3 weeks, reported a bowel movement associated with a feeling of complete evacuation. METHODS: After 3 weeks of temporary peripheral nerve evaluation (PNE), all patients had permanent implantation and were randomized to subsensory/sham (3 weeks each) and then re-randomized to suprasensory/sham (3 weeks each) with a 2-week washout period between each arm. Daily stool dairies were kept, and quality of life (QoL; SF36) was measured at the end of each arm. RESULTS: Between November 2006 and March 2012, 234 constipated patients were assessed, of whom 59 were willing and deemed eligible to participate (4 male; median age 42 years). Of the 59 patients, 16 (28%) responded to PNE. Fifty-five patients went on to permanent SNS implantation. The proportion of patients satisfying the primary outcome measure did not differ between suprasensory (30%) and sham (21%) stimulations, nor between subsensory (25%) and sham (25%) stimulations. There were no significant changes in QoL scores. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with refractory slow transit constipation, SNS did not improve the frequency of complete bowel movements over the 3-week active period.

Reduced beta-cell reserve and pancreatic volume in survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia treated with bone marrow transplantation and total body irradiation.

BACKGROUND: Impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and diabetes mellitus (DM) occur more frequently after bone marrow transplantation and total body irradiation (BMT/TBI), but the mechanism is unclear. This study investigates insulin sensitivity, ß-cell reserve and pancreatic volume in adult survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). METHOD: Survivors (aged 16-26 years) of ALL treated with BMT/TBI (10-14·4 Gy) Group 1 (n = 20, 10 m) were compared with a chemotherapy-only Group 2 (n = 28, 11 m). Participants underwent assessments of insulin sensitivity by whole body composite-insulin-sensitivity-index (ISIcomp ) from oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs); first (AIRarg , AIRg , AUCin10 ) and second (AUC in second phase ) phase insulin responses from arginine-intravenous glucose tolerance tests; and pancreatic volume by abdominal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Data were analysed by odds ratio, Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests, Student's t-tests, analysis of covariance (ancova) and Pearson's or partial correlations (5% significance). RESULTS: Abnormal OGTTs were documented in Group 1 (DM = 2, IGT = 7). Insulin secretion adjusted for insulin sensitivity was lower in Group 1 than Group 2 as a whole [LogAIRarg (P = 0·008), logAIRg (P = 0·013) and logAUCin10 (P = 0·014)] and after exclusion of those with abnormal glucose tolerance [logAIRarg (P = 0·011), logAIRg (P = 0·007) and logAUCin10 (P = 0·006)]. Group 1 had lower pancreatic volume than Group 2 [52·0 (14·2) vs 72·8 (23·5), P = 0·001] cm(3) , and results were consistent after adjustment for size by body surface area (P = 0·019). Pancreatic volume correlated with logAIRarg adjusted log ISIcomp (partial correlation = 0·34, P = 0·025). CONCLUSIONS: Adult survivors of childhood BMT/TBI for ALL demonstrated reduced ß-cell reserve and smaller pancreatic volume, both likely additional aetiological factors, with reduced insulin sensitivity, in their increased risk of diabetes.