An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled patients with AH per National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day postadmission mortality, 3 artificial intelligence algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined through Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce posttest probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30 d) and 27.9% (90 d) in the derivation cohort versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779-0.844) and 0.799 (0.769-0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease variations, age-serum bilirubin-international normalized ratio-serum Creatinine score, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores ( p < 0.001). ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score > 0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Harnessing artificial intelligence within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/ .

Genome-wide association study identifies high-impact susceptibility loci for HCC in North America.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Despite the substantial impact of environmental factors, individuals with a family history of liver cancer have an increased risk for HCC. However, genetic factors have not been studied systematically by genome-wide approaches in large numbers of individuals from European descent populations (EDP). APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted a 2-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) on HCC not affected by HBV infections. A total of 1872 HCC cases and 2907 controls were included in the discovery stage, and 1200 HCC cases and 1832 controls in the validation. We analyzed the discovery and validation samples separately and then conducted a meta-analysis. All analyses were conducted in the presence and absence of HCV. The liability-scale heritability was 24.4% for overall HCC. Five regions with significant ORs (95% CI) were identified for nonviral HCC: 3p22.1, MOBP , rs9842969, (0.51, [0.40-0.65]); 5p15.33, TERT , rs2242652, (0.70, (0.62-0.79]); 19q13.11, TM6SF2 , rs58542926, (1.49, [1.29-1.72]); 19p13.11 MAU2 , rs58489806, (1.53, (1.33-1.75]); and 22q13.31, PNPLA3 , rs738409, (1.66, [1.51-1.83]). One region was identified for HCV-induced HCC: 6p21.31, human leukocyte antigen DQ beta 1, rs9275224, (0.79, [0.74-0.84]). A combination of homozygous variants of PNPLA3 and TERT showing a 6.5-fold higher risk for nonviral-related HCC compared to individuals lacking these genotypes. This observation suggests that gene-gene interactions may identify individuals at elevated risk for developing HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Our GWAS highlights novel genetic susceptibility of nonviral HCC among European descent populations from North America with substantial heritability. Selected genetic influences were observed for HCV-positive HCC. Our findings indicate the importance of genetic susceptibility to HCC development.

Regional Differences in Clinical Presentation and Prognosis of Patients With Post-Sustained Virologic Response Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Widespread use of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus infection has been paralleled with increased numbers of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving sustained virologic response (post-SVR HCC) worldwide. Few data compare regional differences in the presentation and prognosis of patients with post-SVR HCC. METHODS: We identified patients with advanced fibrosis (F3/F4) who developed incident post-SVR HCC between March 2015 and October 2021 from 30 sites in Europe, North America, South America, the Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. We compared patient demographics, liver dysfunction, and tumor burden by region. We compared overall survival by region using Kaplan-Meier analysis and identified factors associated with survival using multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 8796 patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved SVR, 583 (6.6%) developed incident HCC. There was marked regional variation in the proportion of patients detected by surveillance (range: 59.5%-100%), median maximum tumor diameter (range, 1.8-5.0 cm), and the proportion with multinodular HCC (range, 15.4%-60.8%). The prognosis of patients highly varied by region (hazard ratio range, 1.82-9.92), with the highest survival rates in East Asia, North America, and South America, and the lowest survival rates in the Middle East and South Asia. After adjusting for geographic region, HCC surveillance was associated with early stage detection (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 71.0% vs 21.3%; P < .0001) and lower mortality rates (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.18-0.46). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical characteristics, including early stage detection, and prognosis of post-SVR HCC differed significantly across geographic regions. Surveillance utilization appears to be a high-yield intervention target to improve prognosis among patients with post-SVR HCC globally.

Development and Validation of a Noninvasive Model for the Detection of High-Risk Varices in Patients with Unresectable HCC.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Non-invasive variceal risk stratification systems have not been validated in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which presents logistical barriers for patients in the setting of systemic HCC therapy. We aimed to develop and validate a non-invasive algorithm for the prediction of varices in patients with unresectable HCC. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in 21 centers in the US including adult patients with unresectable HCC and Child Pugh A5-B7 cirrhosis diagnosed between 2007 and2019. We included patients who completed an esophagogastroduodonoscopy (EGD) within 12 months of index imaging but prior to HCC treatment. We divided the cohort into a 70:30 training set and validation set, with the goal of maximizing negative predictive value (NPV) to avoid EGD in low-risk patients. RESULTS: We included 707 patients (median age 64.6 years, 80.6% male and 74.0% White). Median time from HCC diagnosis to EGD was 47 (IQR: 114) days, with 25.0% of patients having high-risk varices. A model using clinical variables alone achieved a NPV of 86.3% in the validation cohort, while a model integrating clinical and imaging variables had an NPV 97.4% in validation. The clinical and imaging model would avoid EGDs in over half of low-risk patients while misclassifying 7.7% of high-risk patients. CONCLUSION: A model incorporating clinical and imaging data can accurately predict the absence of high-risk varices in patients with HCC and avoid EGD in many low-risk patients prior to the initiation of systemic therapy, thus expediting their care and avoiding treatment delays.

The novel SALT-M score predicts 1-year post-transplant mortality in patients with severe acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Twenty-eight-day mortality ranges from 30-90% in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grades 2/3 (severe ACLF). Though liver transplantation (LT) has demonstrated a survival benefit, the scarcity of donor organs and uncertainty regarding post-LT mortality among patients with severe ACLF may cause hesitancy. We developed and externally validated a model to predict 1-year post-LT mortality in severe ACLF, called the Sundaram ACLF-LT-Mortality (SALT-M) score, and estimated the median length of stay (LoS) after LT (ACLF-LT-LoS). METHODS: In 15 LT centers in the US, we retrospectively identified a cohort of patients with severe ACLF transplanted between 2014-2019, followed up to Jan'2022. Candidate predictors included demographics, clinical and laboratory values, and organ failures. We selected predictors in the final model using clinical criteria and externally validated them in two French cohorts. We provided measures of overall performance, discrimination, and calibration. We used multivariable median regression to estimate LoS after adjusting for clinically relevant factors. RESULTS: We included 735 patients, of whom 521 (70.8%) had severe ACLF (120 ACLF-3, external cohort). The median age was 55 years, and 104 with severe ACLF (19.9%) died within 1-year post-LT. Our final model included age >50 years, use of 1/≥2 inotropes, presence of respiratory failure, diabetes mellitus, and BMI (continuous). The c-statistic was 0.72 (derivation) and 0.80 (validation), indicating adequate discrimination and calibration based on the observed/expected probability plots. Age, respiratory failure, BMI, and presence of infection independently predicted median LoS. CONCLUSIONS: The SALT-M score predicts mortality within 1-year after LT in patients with ACLF. The ACLF-LT-LoS score predicted median post-LT stay. Future studies using these scores could assist in determining transplant benefits. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Liver transplantation (LT) may be the only life-saving procedure available to patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), but clinically instability can augment the perceived risk of post-transplant mortality at 1 year. We developed a parsimonious score with clinically and readily available parameters to objectively assess 1-year post-LT survival and predict median length of stay after LT. We developed and externally validated a clinical model called the Sundaram ACLF-LT-Mortality score in 521 US patients with ACLF with 2 or ≥3 organ failure(s) and 120 French patients with ACLF grade 3. The c-statistic was 0.72 in the development cohort and 0.80 in the validation cohort. We also provided an estimation of the median length of stay after LT in these patients. Our models can be used in discussions on the risks/benefits of LT in patients listed with severe ACLF. Nevertheless, the score is far from perfect and other factors, such as patient's preference and center-specific factors, need to be considered when using these tools.

Long-term outcomes and trends in liver transplantation for hereditary hemochromatosis in the United States.

There have been conflicting data regarding liver transplantation (LT) outcomes for hereditary hemochromatosis (HH), with no recent data on LT outcomes in patients with HH in the past decade. Using the United Network for Organ Sharing registry, we evaluated waitlist and post-LT survival in all adult patients listed for HH without concomitant liver disease from 2003 to 2019. Post-LT survival for HH was compared with a propensity-matched (recipient and donor factors) cohort of recipients with chronic liver disease (CLD). From 2003 to 2019, 862 patients with HH were listed for LT, of which 55.6% ( n = 479) patients underwent LT. The 1- and 5-year post-LT survival rates in patients with HH were 88.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 85.4%-91.4%) and 77.5% (95% CI, 72.8%-81.4%), respectively, and were comparable with those in the propensity-matched CLD cohort ( p value = 0.96). Post-LT survival for HH was lower than for Wilson's disease, another hereditary metabolic liver disease with similar LT volume ( n = 365). Predictors for long-term (5-year) post-LT mortality included presence of portal vein thrombosis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.96; 95% CI, 1.07-3.58), obesity measurements greater than Class II (HR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.16-3.39), and Karnofsky performance status (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.99) at the time of LT. The leading cause of post-LT death ( n = 145) was malignancy (25.5%), whereas cardiac disease was the cause in less than 10% of recipients. In conclusion, short- and long-term survival rates for HH are excellent and comparable with those of other LT recipients. Improving extrahepatic metabolic factors and functional status in patients with HH prior to LT may improve outcomes.

Hepatitis B virus core-related antigen (HBcrAg) as a prognostic marker for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma: A mini systematic review of the literature.

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Previous studies showed that elevated levels of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) DNA and HBsAg are associated with increased HCC risk in patients with chronic HBV infection. Multiple studies showed that high levels of HBV DNA and Hepatitis B Surface Antigen (HBsAg) are associated with higher HCC risk in CHB patients. Patients treated with antiviral therapy may have undetectable or low levels of HBV DNA and HBsAg loss. However, HCC may develop in some patients with low-level HBV DNA and HBsAg seroconversion. In this study, we evaluated the role of HBcrAg in predicting HBV related HCC development. We searched PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases using keywords (hepatitis B core-related antigen, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver neoplasm, hepatocellular and hepatic cancer, to identify studies assessing serum level of HBcrAg in patients with CHB and HCC. The search resulted in 184 studies. Seven studies were included: Four of which were retrospective cohort studies, and the rest were prospective cohort, case controls. Six of them reported a higher HBcrAg positivity rate in the HCC group when compared with the HBV DNA assay, yet with similar hazard ratio (HR) in predicting the incidence of HCC. However, four studies found that HBcrAg positivity was an independent risk factor for HCC development with a HR ranging from 3.27 to 7.05. HBV-related HCC has many proposed biomarkers in its prediction, yet our findings revealed HBcrAg to may have superiority over other biomarkers. High quality studies with bigger sample size research is needed to understand the potential role of HBcrAg in CHB induced HCC.

International multicenter validation of GES score for HCC risk stratification in chronic hepatitis C patients.

We have recently demonstrated the ability of a simple predictive model (GES) score to determine the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after using direct-acting antivirals. However, our results were restricted to Egyptian patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 4. Therefore, we studied a large, independent cohort of multiethnic populations through our international collaborative activity. Depending on their GES scores, patients are stratified into low risk (≤ 6/12.5), intermediate risk (> 6-7.5/12.5), and high risk (> 7.5/12.5) for HCC. A total of 12,038 patients with chronic HCV were analyzed in this study, of whom 11,202 were recruited from 54 centers in France, Japan, India, the U.S., and Spain, and the remaining 836 were selected from the Gilead-sponsored randomized controlled trial conducted across the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Australia. Descriptive statistics and log-rank tests. The performance of the GES score was evaluated using Harrell's C-index (HCI). The GES score proved successful at stratifying all patients into 3 risk groups, namely low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk. It also displayed significant predictive value for HCC development in all participants (p < .0001), with HCI ranging from 0.55 to 0.76 among all cohorts after adjusting for HCV genotypes and patient ethnicities. The GES score can be used to stratify HCV patients into 3 categories of risk for HCC, namely low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk, irrespective of their ethnicities or HCV genotypes. This international multicenter validation may allow the use of GES score in individualized HCC risk-based surveillance programs.

Dietary N-Nitroso Compounds and Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A USA-Based Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: N-nitroso compounds (NOCs) are among the most potent dietary carcinogens. N-nitrosodiethylamine (NDEA), N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), and N-nitrosopiperidine (NPIP) are abundant in foods and carcinogenic to the liver. We investigated the relationship between dietary NOCs and HCC risk. APPROACH AND RESULTS: In this large, hospital-based, case-control study of 827 pathologically or radiologically confirmed HCC cases and 1,013 controls, NOC intake was calculated by linking food frequency questionnaire-derived dietary data with a comprehensive NOC concentration database. Multivariable-adjusted ORs and 95% CIs of HCC by quartiles of NOC consumption were estimated using logistic regression models, with the lowest quartile as the referent. We further investigated joint effects of consuming the highest quartile of NOCs that were associated with increased HCC risk and hepatitis, diabetes, or alcohol drinking on HCC risk. After adjustment for confounding factors, higher intake of NDEA from plant sources (ORQ4 vs. Q1  = 1.58; 95% CI = 1.03-2.41), NDMA from plant sources (ORQ4 vs. Q1  = 1.54; 95% CI = 1.01-2.34), and NPIP (ORQ4 vs. Q1  = 2.52; 95% CI = 1.62-3.94) was associated with increased HCC risk. No association was observed for nitrate or total NOC intake and HCC risk. Higher consumption of HCC-inducing NOCs and positive hepatitis virus status jointly increased the risk of developing HCC. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, though some of our findings may indicate the presence of reverse causation owing to lower meat intake among cases with chronic liver diseases before HCC diagnosis, the potent dietary HCC carcinogens, NDEA, NDMA, and NPIP, and their enhanced carcinogenic effects among chronic carriers of hepatitis virus warrant further prospective investigation.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Liver Transplantation and Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease in the USA.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The surge in unhealthy alcohol use during the COVID-19 pandemic may have detrimental effects on the rising burden of alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) on liver transplantation (LT) in the USA. We evaluated the effect of the pandemic on temporal trends for LT including ALD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Using data from United Network for Organ Sharing, we analyzed wait-list outcomes in the USA through March 1, 2021. In a short-period analysis, patients listed or transplanted between June 1, 2019, and February 29, 2020, were defined as the "pre-COVID" era, and after April 1, 2020, were defined as the "COVID" era. Interrupted time-series analyses using monthly count data from 2016-2020 were constructed to evaluate the rate change for listing and LT before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Rates for listings (P = 0.19) and LT (P = 0.14) were unchanged during the pandemic despite a significant reduction in the monthly listing rates for HCV (-21.69%, P < 0.001) and NASH (-13.18%; P < 0.001). There was a significant increase in ALD listing (+7.26%; P < 0.001) and LT (10.67%; P < 0.001) during the pandemic. In the COVID era, ALD (40.1%) accounted for more listings than those due to HCV (12.4%) and NASH (23.4%) combined. The greatest increase in ALD occurred in young adults (+33%) and patients with severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (+50%). Patients with ALD presented with a higher acuity of illness, with 30.8% of listings and 44.8% of LT having a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score ≥30. CONCLUSIONS: Since the start of COVID-19 pandemic, ALD has become the most common indication for listing and the fastest increasing cause for LT. Collective efforts are urgently needed to stem the rising tide of ALD on health care resources.

Significant improvements, but consistent disparities in survival for African Americans after liver transplantation.

Despite improvements in survival across races in the past 20 years, African Americans have worse liver transplant outcomes after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). This study aims at quantifying the change in disparities between African Americans and other races in survival after OLT. We retrospectively analyzed the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database for patient data for candidates who received a liver transplant between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2017. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression indicated similar decreases in mortality over time for each race with a decrease in mortality for African Americans: 2010-2012 (HR = .930), 2012-2015 (HR = .882), and 2015-2017 (HR = .883) when compared to 2007-2010. Risk of mortality for African Americans compared to Caucasians varied across the 4 eras: 2007-2010 (HR = 1.083), 2010-2012 (HR = 1.090), 2012-2015 (HR = 1.070), and 2015-2017 (HR = 1.125). While African Americans have seen increases in survival in the past decade, a similar increase in survival for other races leaves a significant survival disparity in African Americans.

Identification of optimal therapeutic window for steroid use in severe alcohol-associated hepatitis: A worldwide study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Corticosteroids are the only effective therapy for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), defined by a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score >20. However, there are patients who may be too sick to benefit from therapy. Herein, we aimed to identify the range of MELD scores within which steroids are effective for AH. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, international multicenter cohort study across 4 continents, including 3,380 adults with a clinical and/or histological diagnosis of AH. The main outcome was mortality at 30 days. We used a discrete-time survival analysis model, and MELD cut-offs were established using the transform-the-endpoints method. RESULTS: In our cohort, median age was 49 (40-56) years, 76.5% were male, and 79% had underlying cirrhosis. Median MELD at admission was 24 (19-29). Survival was 88% (87-89) at 30 days, 77% (76-78) at 90 days, and 72% (72-74) at 180 days. A total of 1,225 patients received corticosteroids. In an adjusted-survival-model, corticosteroid use decreased 30-day mortality by 41% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.59; 0.47-0.74; p <0.001). Steroids only improved survival in patients with MELD scores between 21 (HR 0.61; 0.39-0.95; p = 0.027) and 51 (HR 0.72; 0.52-0.99; p = 0.041). The maximum effect of corticosteroid treatment (21-30% survival benefit) was observed with MELD scores between 25 (HR 0.58; 0.42-0.77; p <0.001) and 39 (HR 0.57; 0.41-0.79; p <0.001). No corticosteroid benefit was seen in patients with MELD >51. The type of corticosteroids used (prednisone, prednisolone, or methylprednisolone) was not associated with survival benefit (p = 0.247). CONCLUSION: Corticosteroids improve 30-day survival only among patients with severe AH, especially with MELD scores between 25 and 39. LAY SUMMARY: Alcohol-associated hepatitis is a condition where the liver is severely inflamed as a result of excess alcohol use. It is associated with high mortality and it is not clear whether the most commonly used treatments (corticosteroids) are effective, particularly in patients with very severe liver disease. In this worldwide study, the use of corticosteroids was associated with increased 30-day, but not 90- or 180-day, survival. The maximal benefit was observed in patients with an MELD score (a marker of severity of liver disease; higher scores signify worse disease) between 25-39. However, this benefit was lost in patients with the most severe liver disease (MELD score higher than 51).

Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Hepatitis C Virus Infection Is Associated With Increased Survival in Patients With a History of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is controversy regarding the benefits of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection for patients with a history of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We performed a multicenter cohort study to compare overall survival between patients with HCV infection treated with DAAs and patients who did not receive DAA treatment for their HCV infection after complete response to prior HCC therapy. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with HCV-related HCC who achieved a complete response to resection, local ablation, transarterial chemo- or radioembolization, or radiation therapy, from January 2013 through December 2017 at 31 health care systems throughout the United States and Canada. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine the association between receipt of DAA therapy, modeled as a time-varying covariate, and all-cause mortality, accounting for informative censoring and confounding using inverse probability weighting. RESULTS: Of 797 patients with HCV-related HCC, 383 (48.1%) received DAA therapy and 414 (51.9%) did not receive treatment for their HCV infection after complete response to prior HCC therapy. Among DAA-treated patients, 43 deaths occurred during 941 person-years of follow-up, compared with 103 deaths during 526.6 person-years of follow-up among patients who did not receive DAA therapy (crude rate ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.16-0.33). In inverse probability-weighted analyses, DAA therapy was associated with a significant reduction in risk of death (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.33-0.90). This association differed by sustained virologic response to DAA therapy; risk of death was reduced in patients with sustained virologic response to DAA therapy (hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.18-0.47), but not in patients without a sustained virologic response (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.55-2.33). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of nearly 800 patients with complete response to HCC treatment, DAA therapy was associated with a significant reduction in risk of death.

Provider Attitudes and Practice Patterns for Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are effective against hepatitis C virus and sustained virologic response is associated with reduced incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, there is controversy over the use of DAAs in patients with active or treated HCC and uncertainty about optimal management of these patients. We aimed to characterize attitudes and practice patterns of hepatology practitioners in the United States regarding the use of DAAs in patients with HCC. METHODS: We conducted a survey of hepatology providers at 47 tertiary care centers in 25 states. Surveys were sent to 476 providers and we received 279 responses (58.6%). RESULTS: Provider beliefs about risk of HCC recurrence after DAA therapy varied: 48% responded that DAAs reduce risk, 36% responded that DAAs do not change risk, and 16% responded that DAAs increase risk of HCC recurrence. However, most providers believed DAAs to be beneficial to and reduce mortality of patients with complete response to HCC treatment. Accordingly, nearly all providers (94.9%) reported recommending DAA therapy to patients with early-stage HCC who received curative treatment. However, fewer providers recommended DAA therapy for patients with intermediate (72.9%) or advanced (57.5%) HCC undergoing palliative therapies. Timing of DAA initiation varied among providers based on HCC treatment modality: 49.1% of providers reported they would initiate DAA therapy within 3 months of surgical resection whereas 45.9% and 5.0% would delay DAA initiation for 3-12 months and >1 year post-surgery, respectively. For patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), 42.0% of providers would provide DAAs within 3 months of the procedure, 46.7% would delay DAAs until 3-12 months afterward, and 11.3% would delay DAAs more than 1 year after TACE. CONCLUSIONS: Based on a survey sent to hepatology providers, there is variation in provider attitudes and practice patterns regarding use and timing of DAAs for patients with HCC. Further studies are needed to characterize the risks and benefits of DAA therapy in this patient population.

Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy Not Associated With Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in a Multicenter North American Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is controversy over the effects of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence and tumor aggressiveness. We compared HCC recurrence patterns between DAA-treated and untreated HCV-infected patients who had achieved a complete response to HCC treatment in a North American cohort. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with HCV-related HCC with a complete response to resection, local ablation, transarterial chemo- or radioembolization, or radiation therapy from January 2013 through December 2017 at 31 health systems throughout the United States and Canada. Cox regression was used to examine the association between DAA therapy and time to recurrence after a complete response, with DAA therapy analyzed as a time-varying exposure. We also estimated the association between DAA therapy and risk of early HCC recurrence (defined as 365 days after complete response). RESULTS: Of 793 patients with HCV-associated HCC, 304 (38.3%) received DAA therapy and 489 (61.7%) were untreated. HCC recurred in 128 DAA-treated patients (42.1%; early recurrence in 52 patients) and 288 untreated patients (58.9%; early recurrence in 227 patients). DAA therapy was not associated with HCC recurrence (hazard ratio 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.70-1.16) or early HCC recurrence (hazard ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.70-1.34) after we adjusted for study site, age, sex, Child-Pugh score, α-fetoprotein level, tumor burden, and HCC treatment modality. In DAA-treated and untreated patients, most recurrences were within the Milan criteria (74.2% vs 78.8%; P = .23). A larger proportion of DAA-treated than untreated patients received potentially curative HCC therapy for recurrent HCC (32.0% vs 24.6%) and achieved a complete or partial response (45.3% vs 41.0%) but this did not achieve statistical significance. CONCLUSION: In a large cohort of North American patients with complete response to HCC treatment, DAA therapy was not associated with increased overall or early HCC recurrence. HCC recurrence patterns, including treatment response, were similar in DAA-treated and untreated patients.

Posttransplant Outcome of Lean Compared With Obese Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis in the United States: The Obesity Paradox.

Morbid obesity is considered a relative contraindication for liver transplantation (LT). We investigated if body mass index (BMI; lean versus obese) is a risk factor for post-LT graft and overall survival in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and non-NASH patients. Using the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database, LT recipients from January 2002 to June 2013 (age ≥18 years) with follow-up until 2017 were included. The association of BMI categories calculated at LT with graft and overall survival after LT were examined. After adjusting for confounders, all obesity cohorts (overweight and class 1, class 2, and class 3 obesity) among LT recipients for NASH had significantly reduced risk of graft and patient loss at 10 years of follow-up compared with the lean BMI cohort. In contrast, the non-NASH group of LT recipients had no increased risk for graft and patient loss for overweight, class 1, and class 2 obesity groups but had significantly increased risk for graft (P < 0.001) and patient loss (P = 0.005) in the class 3 obesity group. In this retrospective analysis of the UNOS database, adult recipients selected for first LT and NASH patients with the lowest BMI have the worse longterm graft and patient survival as opposed to non-NASH patients where the survival was worse with higher BMI.

Retrospective analysis of long-term outcome 10 years after liver transplantation for Wilson disease: experience over three decades.

We evaluated long-term outcomes for patients with Wilson disease (WD) after liver transplantation (LT) and searched for risk factors for poor survival. Retrospective analysis of UNOS/OPTN data identified 156 pediatric and 515 adult cases of LT for WD between 1987 and 2016. Comparison cases were 10 442 pediatric and 104 874 adult non-WD transplant recipients. Survival was calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Recipient, donor, and surgical variables were compared by Cox regression. Survival rates 3, 5, and 10 years after LT for adult WD patients (87.5%, 85.4%, and 80.5%, respectively) were significantly higher than those for non-WD patients (P < 0.001); survival rates for pediatric WD patients (90.5%, 89.7%, and 86.5%, respectively) did not differ significantly from non-WD patients. Graft survival in adult and pediatric patients followed similar trends. Regression analysis identified older age, female gender, and use of life support at the time of transplant as risk factors for decreased survival for adults with WD, and younger age, male gender, obesity, and high serum creatinine at the time of transplant as risk factors for poor survival in pediatric recipients with WD. Presentation with fulminant liver failure was not associated with survival in WD patients. No donor characteristic predicted poor survival. Long-term patient and graft survival after LT is excellent for both adult and pediatric WD patients.

Estrogen Replacement Reduces Risk and Increases Survival Times of Women With Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Environmental factors have been identified that affect risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but little is known about the effects of sex hormones on liver cancer development or outcome. The authors investigated whether menopause hormone therapy (MHT) affects risk, age at onset, or outcome of HCC. METHODS: We performed a case-control study of 234 female patients treated for HCC at a tertiary medical center and with 282 healthy women (controls) from January 1, 2004 through May 31, 2015. We collected detailed information on environmental exposures, ages of menarche and menopause, hysterectomies, and uses of birth control and MHT. We performed multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses to determine the independent effects of factors associated with women on risk and clinical outcome in HCC. The primary outcomes were effect of MHT on HCC risk, the relationship between MHT with hepatitis virus infection on HCC development, and effect of MHT on age at HCC onset or survival after diagnosis of HCC. RESULTS: The estimated adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for HCC in women who ever used estrogen was 0.53 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.32-0.88). This association was supported by the older age of HCC onset among estrogen users (mean, 64.5 ± 0.9 years) vs nonusers (mean 59.2 ± 1.1 years; P = .001) and the reduced risk of HCC among long-term users (more than 5 years) (AOR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.20-0.63). Users of estrogen also had a reduced risk for hepatitis-associated HCC: AOR for users, 4.37 (95% CI, 1.67-11.44) vs AOR for nonusers, 17.60 (95% CI, 3.88-79.83). Estrogen use reduced risk of death from HCC (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.40-0.77; P = .01). Median overall survival times were 33.5 months for estrogen users (95% CI, 25.7-41.3 months) and 24.1 months for nonusers (95% CI, 19.02-29.30 months; P = .008). CONCLUSION: In a case-control study of women with HCC vs female control subjects at a single center, we associated use of estrogen MHT with reduced risk of HCC and increased overall survival times of patients with HCC. Further studies are needed to determine the benefits of estrogen therapy for women and patients with HCC, and effects of tumor expression of estrogen receptor.

Dawn-to-dusk dry fasting decreases circulating inflammatory cytokines in subjects with increased body mass index.

Background: The circadian rhythm involves numerous metabolic processes, including sleep/awakening, body temperature regulation, hormone secretion, hepatic function, cellular plasticity, and cytokine release (inflammation), that appear to have a dynamic relationship with all the processes above. Studies have linked various cytokines to the chronic state of low-grade inflammation and oxidative stress in obesity. Dawn-to-dusk dry fasting (DDDF) could alleviate the adverse effects of obesity by decreasing inflammation. This study examined the effects of DDDF on circulating inflammatory cytokines in subjects with increased body mass index (BMI). Methods: The current observational prospective study included adult subjects with a BMI equal to or greater than 25 kg/m2 who practiced the annual religious 30-day DDDF. Individuals with significant underlying medical conditions were excluded to limit confounding factors. All subjects were evaluated within two weeks before 30-day DDDF, within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF, and within two weeks after 30-day DDDF. Multiple cytokines and clinical health indicators were measured at each evaluation. Results: Thirteen subjects (10 men and three women) with a mean age of 32.9 years (SD = 9.7 years) and a mean BMI of 32 kg/m2 (SD = 4.6 kg/m2) were included. An overall associated decrease in the levels of multiple cytokines with DDDF was observed. A significant decrease in the mean interleukin 1 beta level was observed within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF (P = 0.045), which persisted even after the fasting period (P = 0.024). There was also a significant decrease in the mean levels of interleukin 15 (IL-15) (P = 0.014), interleukin 1 receptor antagonist (P = 0.041), macrophage-derived chemokine (MDC) (P = 0.013), and monokine induced by interferon gamma/chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 9 (P = 0.027) within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF and in the mean levels of fibroblast growth factor 2 (P = 0.010), interleukin 12 p40 subunit (P = 0.038), interleukin 22 (P = 0.025) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (P = 0.046) within two weeks after 30-DDDF. In terms of anthropometric parameters, there was a decrease in mean body weight (P = 0.032), BMI (P = 0.028), and hip circumference (P = 0.007) within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF and a decrease in mean weight (P = 0.026), BMI (P = 0.033) and hip circumference (P = 0.016) within two weeks after 30-day DDDF compared with the levels measured within two weeks before 30-day DDDF. Although there was no significant correlation between changes in weight and changes in circulating inflammatory cytokines, there was a significant positive correlation between changes in waist circumference and changes in specific inflammatory cytokines (e.g., IL-15, MDC, platelet-derived growth factor, soluble CD40L, vascular endothelial growth factor A) within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF and/or two weeks after 30-day DDDF. A significant decrease in mean average resting heart rate within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF was also observed (P = 0.023), and changes between average resting heart rate and changes in interleukin-8 levels within the fourth week of 30-day DDDF compared with baseline levels were positively correlated (r = 0.57, P = 0.042). Conclusion: DDDF appears to be a unique and potent treatment to reduce low-grade chronic inflammation caused by obesity and visceral adiposity. Further studies with more extended follow-up periods are warranted to investigate the long-term anti-inflammatory benefits of DDDF in individuals with increased BMI.