Influenza-associated mortality in hospital care: a retrospective cohort study of risk factors and impact of oseltamivir in an English teaching hospital, 2016 to 2017.

BackgroundEvidence of an oseltamivir treatment effect on influenza A(H3N2) virus infections in hospitalised patients is incomplete.AimsThis cohort study aimed to evaluate risk factors for death among PCR-confirmed hospitalised cases of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) of all ages and the impact of oseltamivir.MethodsParticipants included all 332 PCR-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) cases diagnosed between 30 August 2016 and 17 March 2017 in an English university teaching Hospital. Oseltamivir treatment effect on odds of inpatient death was assessed by backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis.ResultsThe odds of death were reduced by two thirds (odds ratio (OR): 0.32; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.11-0.93), in inpatients treated with a standard course of oseltamivir 75 mg two times daily for 5 days - compared with those untreated with oseltamivir, after adjustment for age, sex, current excess alcohol intake, receipt of 2016/17 seasonal influenza vaccine, serum haemoglobin and hospital vs community attribution of acquisition of influenza.ConclusionsOseltamivir treatment given according to National Institutes of Clinical Excellence (NICE); United States Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines was shown to be effective in reducing the odds of mortality in inpatients with PCR-confirmed seasonal influenza A(H3N2) after adjustment in a busy routine English hospital setting. Our results highlight the importance of hospitals complying with relevant guidelines for prompt seasonal influenza PCR testing and ensuring standard oseltamivir treatment to all PCR-confirmed cases of seasonal influenza.

Oseltamivir is protective for in-patient mortality in PCR confirmed influenza B and influenza A(H3N2) infections in an historic cohort of 1,048 patients hospitalised during the 2016-17 and 2017-18 influenza seasons.

Standard course oseltamivir 75mg two times daily for five days was associated with an 82% reduction of odds of in-patient death (OR 0.18 (0.07,0.51)) compared to no oseltamivir treatment (OR 1.0 Reference) in a final multivariable logistic regression model of a retrospective cohort of PCR confirmed influenza B and influenza A (H3N2) infected patients admitted to a large UK teaching hospital in influenza seasons 2016-17 and 2017-18. No difference of protective odds for standard course oseltamivir was observed between influenza B and influenza A (H3N2) nor between influenza seasons. These observations strongly support clinical guidelines for molecular testing for respiratory viruses on admission to hospital and prompt treatment of confirmed seasonal influenza B and A with oseltamivir 75mg twice daily for five days.

Urban heat in Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni, South Africa: A meter-scale assessment and vulnerability analysis.

Heat stress is an important threat for human health and urban areas are affected at higher rates compared to rural environments. Additionally, climate change will increase the vulnerability towards urban heat stress in the future. Current high-resolution urban heat stress assessments are limited in time and space due to the high computational costs. In this paper, the UrbClim numerical model is used to simulate urban heat accurately at a fast rate and high spatial resolution for the cities of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni, South Africa. Using detailed terrain information, (future) urban heat stress assessments are provided at 30 m resolution for both city agglomerations, while meter-scale simulations are executed for a selection of neighborhoods. These model simulations are evaluated using an extensive monitoring campaign in which the local community was heavily engaged. Distinct spatial differences in the urban heat island effect are observed, with greatest heat stress in areas with high building densities and low vegetation numbers. These areas are often characterized by lower socio-economic living conditions. The meter-scale analysis further shows the importance of shade provided by vegetation to lower heat stress in both present and future climate. These assessments offer assistance in the design of climate-resilient urban planning strategies.