Discriminating clinical features of heart failure with preserved vs. reduced ejection fraction in the community.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a major public health burden worldwide. Of patients presenting with HF, 30-55% have a preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) rather than a reduced ejection fraction (HFREF). Our objective was to examine discriminating clinical features in new-onset HFPEF vs. HFREF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 712 participants in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) hospitalized for new-onset HF between 1981 and 2008 (median age 81 years, 53% female), 46% had HFPEF (EF >45%) and 54% had HFREF (EF ≤45%). In multivariable logistic regression, coronary heart disease (CHD), higher heart rate, higher potassium, left bundle branch block, and ischaemic electrocardiographic changes increased the odds of HFREF; female sex and atrial fibrillation increased the odds of HFPEF. In aggregate, these clinical features predicted HF subtype with good discrimination (c-statistic 0.78). Predictors were examined in the Enhanced Feedback for Effective Cardiac Treatment (EFFECT) study. Of 4436 HF patients (median age 75 years, 47% female), 32% had HFPEF and 68% had HFREF. Distinguishing clinical features were consistent between FHS and EFFECT, with comparable discrimination in EFFECT (c-statistic 0.75). In exploratory analyses examining the traits of the intermediate EF group (EF 35-55%), CHD predisposed to a decrease in EF, whereas other clinical traits showed an overlapping spectrum between HFPEF and HFREF. CONCLUSION: Multiple clinical characteristics at the time of initial HF presentation differed in participants with HFPEF vs. HFREF. While CHD was clearly associated with a lower EF, overlapping characteristics were observed in the middle of the left ventricular EF range spectrum.

Higher aldosterone and lower N-terminal proatrial natriuretic peptide as biomarkers of salt sensitivity in the community.

BACKGROUND: Salt sensitivity, a trait characterized by a pressor blood pressure response to increased dietary salt intake, has been associated with higher rates of cardiovascular target organ damage and cardiovascular disease events. Recent experimental studies have highlighted the potential role of the natriuretic peptides and aldosterone in mediating salt sensitivity. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: We evaluated 1575 non-hypertensive Framingham Offspring cohort participants (mean age 55 ± 9 years, 58% women) who underwent routine measurements of circulating aldosterone and N-terminal proatrial natriuretic peptide (NT-ANP) and assessment of dietary sodium intake. Participants were categorized as potentially 'salt sensitive' if their serum aldosterone was >sex-specific median but plasma NT-ANP was ≤sex-specific median value. Dietary sodium intake was categorized as lower versus higher (dichotomized at the sex-specific median). We used multivariable linear regression to relate presence of salt sensitivity (as defined above) to longitudinal changes (Δ) in systolic and diastolic blood pressure on follow-up (median four years). RESULTS: Participants who were 'salt sensitive' (N = 437) experienced significantly greater increases in blood pressure (Δ systolic, +4.4 and +2.3 mmHg; Δ diastolic, +1.9 and -0.3 mmHg; on a higher versus lower sodium diet, respectively) as compared to the other participants (Δ systolic, +2.8 and +1.0 mmHg; Δ diastolic, +0.5 and -0.2 mmHg; on higher versus lower sodium diet, respectively; P = 0.033 and P = 0.0127 for differences between groups in Δ systolic and Δ diastolic blood pressure, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our observational data suggest that higher circulating aldosterone and lower NT-ANP concentrations may be markers of salt sensitivity in the community. Additional studies are warranted to confirm these observations.

Relations of lipid concentrations to heart failure incidence: the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: The relations of lipid concentrations to heart failure (HF) risk have not been elucidated comprehensively. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 6860 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age, 44 years; 54% women) free of baseline coronary heart disease, we related high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and non-HDL-C to HF incidence during long-term follow-up, adjusting for clinical covariates and myocardial infarction at baseline and updating these at follow-up examinations. We evaluated dyslipidemia-specific population burden of HF by calculating population attributable risks. During follow-up (mean of 26 years), 680 participants (49% women) developed HF. Unadjusted HF incidence in the low (<160 mg/dL) versus high (> or =190 mg/dL) non-HDL-C groups was 7.9% and 13.8%, respectively, whereas incidence in the high (> or =55 [men], > or =65 [women] mg/dL) versus low (<40 [men], <50 [women] mg/dL) HDL-C groups was 6.1% and 12.8%, respectively. In multivariable models, baseline non-HDL-C and HDL-C, modeled as continuous measures, carried HF hazards (confidence intervals) of 1.19 (1.11 to 1.27) and 0.82 (0.75 to 0.90), respectively, per SD increment. In models updating lipid concentrations every 8 years, the corresponding hazards (confidence intervals) were 1.23 (1.16 to 1.31) and 0.77 (0.70 to 0.85). Participants with high baseline non-HDL-C and those with low HDL-C experienced a 29% and 40% higher HF risk, respectively, compared with those in the desirable categories; the population attributable risks for high non-HDL-C and low HDL-C were 7.5% and 15%, respectively. Hazards associated with non-HDL-C and HDL-C remained statistically significant after additional adjustment for interim myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: Dyslipidemia carries HF risk independent of its association with myocardial infarction, suggesting that lipid modification may be a means for reducing HF risk.

Development of a risk score for atrial fibrillation (Framingham Heart Study): a community-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation contributes to substantial increases in morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop a risk score to predict individuals' absolute risk of developing the condition, and to provide a framework for researchers to assess new risk markers. METHODS: We assessed 4764 participants in the Framingham Heart Study from 8044 examinations (55% women, 45-95 years of age) undertaken between June, 1968, and September, 1987. Thereafter, participants were monitored for the first event of atrial fibrillation for a maximum of 10 years. Multivariable Cox regression identified clinical risk factors associated with development of atrial fibrillation in 10 years. Secondary analyses incorporated routine echocardiographic measurements (5152 participants, 7156 examinations) to reclassify the risk of atrial fibrillation and to assess whether these measurements improved risk prediction. FINDINGS: 457 (10%) of the 4764 participants developed atrial fibrillation. Age, sex, body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, PR interval, clinically significant cardiac murmur, and heart failure were associated with atrial fibrillation and incorporated in a risk score (p<0.05, except body-mass index p=0.08), clinical model C statistic 0.78 (95% CI 0.76-0.80). Risk of atrial fibrillation in 10 years varied with age: more than 15% risk was recorded in 53 (1%) participants younger than 65 years, compared with 783 (27%) older than 65 years. Additional incorporation of echocardiographic measurements to enhance the risk prediction model only slightly improved the C statistic from 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.80) to 0.79 (0.77-0.82), p=0.005. Echocardiographic measurements did not improve risk reclassification (p=0.18). INTERPRETATION: From clinical factors readily accessible in primary care, our risk score could help to identify risk of atrial fibrillation for individuals in the community, assess technologies or markers for improvement of risk prediction, and target high-risk individuals for preventive measures.

General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care: the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Separate multivariable risk algorithms are commonly used to assess risk of specific atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, ie, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease, and heart failure. The present report presents a single multivariable risk function that predicts risk of developing all CVD and of its constituents. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used Cox proportional-hazards regression to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event in 8491 Framingham study participants (mean age, 49 years; 4522 women) who attended a routine examination between 30 and 74 years of age and were free of CVD. Sex-specific multivariable risk functions ("general CVD" algorithms) were derived that incorporated age, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, smoking, and diabetes status. We assessed the performance of the general CVD algorithms for predicting individual CVD events (coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, or heart failure). Over 12 years of follow-up, 1174 participants (456 women) developed a first CVD event. All traditional risk factors evaluated predicted CVD risk (multivariable-adjusted P<0.0001). The general CVD algorithm demonstrated good discrimination (C statistic, 0.763 [men] and 0.793 [women]) and calibration. Simple adjustments to the general CVD risk algorithms allowed estimation of the risks of each CVD component. Two simple risk scores are presented, 1 based on all traditional risk factors and the other based on non-laboratory-based predictors. CONCLUSIONS: A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm can be conveniently used to assess general CVD risk and risk of individual CVD events (coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral arterial disease and heart failure). The estimated absolute CVD event rates can be used to quantify risk and to guide preventive care.

Long-term trends in the incidence of heart failure after myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Although mortality after myocardial infarction (MI) has declined in the United States in recent decades, there have been few community-based investigations of the long-term trends in the incidence of heart failure after MI, and their results appear to be conflicting. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated 676 Framingham Heart Study participants between 45 and 85 years of age (mean age 67 years, 34% women) who developed a first MI between 1970 and 1999. We assessed the incidence rates of heart failure and of death without heart failure in each of 3 decades (1970 to 1979, 1980 to 1989, and 1990 to 1999). We estimated the multivariable-adjusted risk of events in the latter 2 decades, with the period 1970 to 1979 serving as the referent. The 30-day incidence of heart failure after MI rose from 10% in 1970 to 1979 to 23.1% in 1990 to 1999 (P for trend 0.003), whereas 30-day mortality after MI declined from 12.2% (1970 to 1979) to 4.1% (1990 to 1999). The 5-year incidence of heart failure after MI rose from 27.6% in 1970 to 1979 to 31.9% in 1990 to 1999 (P for trend 0.02), whereas 5-year mortality after MI declined from 41.1% (1970 to 1979) to 17.3% (1990 to 1999). In multivariable analyses, compared with the period 1970 to 1979, we observed higher 30-day (risk ratio 2.05, 95% confidence interval 1.25 to 3.36) and 5-year (risk ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 2.84) risks of heart failure in the decade 1990 to 1999. These trends were accompanied by lower 30-day (risk ratio 0.21, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.47) and 5-year (risk ratio 0.31, 95% confidence interval 0.18 to 0.54) mortality rates in 1990 to 1999. CONCLUSIONS: In the present community-based sample, we observed an increase in the incidence of heart failure in recent decades that paralleled the decrease in mortality after MI.

Triglycerides as vascular risk factors: new epidemiologic insights.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Targeting triglycerides as a vascular risk factor is justified because of the role of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins in atherogenesis. This review examines recent evidence connecting triglycerides with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the context of advances in insights concerning the pathophysiology, population burden and prognostic impact of fasting versus nonfasting values. RECENT FINDINGS: Cross-sectional surveys indicate that mean triglyceride levels in the United States have increased in recent decades. Although elevated fasting triglycerides are consistently associated with increased CVD risk, adjustment for other risk factors (especially high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C)) substantially attenuates this relationship. A recent meta-analysis of 27 prospective studies of western populations reported a triglyceride impact on CVD in both sexes, for both fasting and nonfasting values. Nonfasting triglycerides maintained an independent graded relationship with CVD in fully adjusted analyses, with elevated 4 h postprandial triglyceride imposing a 4.5-fold increment relative to lower levels. SUMMARY: Evidence supports a potential role for both fasting and nonfasting triglycerides as vascular risk factors, owing in part to the accompanying burden of atherogenic remnant particles, small dense low-density lipoprotein, reduced HDL-C and a high frequency of accompanying insulin resistance. Triglyceride-associated CVD risk occurs even in patients with low low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and lowering both lipids provides more benefit than reducing LDL-C alone.

A risk score for predicting near-term incidence of hypertension: the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest that targeting high-risk, nonhypertensive individuals for treatment may delay hypertension onset, thereby possibly mitigating vascular complications. Risk stratification may facilitate cost-effective approaches to management. OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple risk score for predicting hypertension incidence by using measures readily obtained in the physician's office. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: Framingham Heart Study, Framingham, Massachusetts. PATIENTS: 1717 nonhypertensive white individuals 20 to 69 years of age (mean age, 42 years; 54% women), without diabetes and with both parents in the original cohort of the Framingham Heart Study, contributed 5814 person-examinations. MEASUREMENTS: Scores were developed for predicting the 1-, 2-, and 4-year risk for new-onset hypertension, and performance characteristics of the prediction algorithm were assessed by using calibration and discrimination measures. Parental hypertension was ascertained from examinations of the original cohort of the Framingham Heart Study. RESULTS: During follow-up (median time over all person-examinations, 3.8 years), 796 persons (52% women) developed new-onset hypertension. In multivariable analyses, age, sex, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, parental hypertension, and cigarette smoking were significant predictors of hypertension. According to the risk score based on these factors, the 4-year risk for incident hypertension was classified as low (<5%) in 34% of participants, medium (5% to 10%) in 19%, and high (>10%) in 47%. The c-statistic for the prediction model was 0.788, and calibration was very good. LIMITATIONS: The risk score findings may not be generalizable to persons of nonwhite race or ethnicity or to persons with diabetes. The risk score algorithm has not been validated in an independent cohort and is based on single measurements of risk factors and blood pressure. CONCLUSION: The hypertension risk prediction score can be used to estimate an individual's absolute risk for hypertension on short-term follow-up, and it represents a simple, office-based tool that may facilitate management of high-risk individuals with prehypertension.

Interindividual variation in serum sodium and longitudinal blood pressure tracking in the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Recent cross-sectional studies have suggested that higher serum sodium levels may be a marker of elevated blood pressure. It is unclear whether serum sodium levels are related to the risk of developing hypertension in the community. METHODS: We investigated the association of serum sodium with longitudinal blood pressure tracking and incidence of hypertension in 2172 nonhypertensive Framingham Offspring Study participants (mean age 42 years, 54% women). We defined an increase in blood pressure as an increment of at least one category (as defined by the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure), and incident hypertension as a systolic blood pressure of at least 140 or a diastolic blood pressure of at least 90 mmHg, or use of antihypertensive medications. Serum sodium was analyzed as a continuous variable, and as categories. RESULTS: Cross-sectionally, serum sodium was not associated with systolic or diastolic blood pressure (P exceeded 0.10). On follow-up (mean 4.4 years), 805 participants (37%, 418 women) progressed by at least one blood pressure category, and 318 (15%, 155 women) developed new-onset hypertension. In multivariable logistic regression analyses (adjusting for age, sex, baseline blood pressure, diabetes, BMI, weight gain and smoking), serum sodium was not associated with blood pressure progression (odds ratio per SD increment 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.85-1.03), or with hypertension incidence (odds ratio per SD increment 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.82-1.08). CONCLUSION: In our large community-based sample, serum sodium was not associated with blood pressure cross-sectionally, or with blood pressure tracking or hypertension incidence longitudinally.

Usefulness of the triglyceride-high-density lipoprotein versus the cholesterol-high-density lipoprotein ratio for predicting insulin resistance and cardiometabolic risk (from the Framingham Offspring Cohort).

Increased triglycerides (TG) and decreased high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol are key metabolic abnormalities in patients with insulin resistance (IR) states, including diabetes mellitus. The TG/HDL cholesterol ratio was advocated as a simple clinical indicator of IR, but studies yielded inconsistent results. The total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio was widely used to assess lipid atherogenesis, but its utility for assessing IR or its associated coronary heart disease (CHD) risk was unknown. TG/HDL cholesterol and total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratios were related to IR (top quartile of the homeostasis model assessment-IR) in 3,014 patients (mean age 54 years; 55% women). Logistic regression was used to construct receiver-operator characteristic curves for predicting IR, with lipid ratios as predictors. Multivariable Cox regression was used to evaluate whether adjusting for lipid ratios attenuated the association of IR with CHD. Cross sectionally, age- and gender-adjusted correlations of IR were 0.46 with TG/HDL cholesterol ratio and 0.38 with total/HDL cholesterol ratio. IR prevalence increased across tertiles of lipid ratios (p <0.0001). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curves for predicting IR with TG/HDL cholesterol ratio was 0.745, slightly higher than that for total/HDL cholesterol ratio (0.707; p <0.001 for comparison). On follow-up (mean 6.4 years), 112 patients experienced initial CHD events. IR was associated with CHD risk (multivariable-adjusted hazards ratio 2.71, 95% confidence interval 1.79 to 4.11), which remained significant even after adjustment for lipid ratios. In conclusion, our observations suggested that the TG/HDL cholesterol ratio was an imperfect surrogate for IR and its associated CHD risk, and it was only slightly better than the total/HDL cholesterol ratio for this purpose.

Prediction of intermittent claudication, ischemic stroke, and other cardiovascular disease by detection of abdominal aortic calcific deposits by plain lumbar radiographs.

There has been little attention to vascular calcium testing for generalized assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes, such as intermittent claudication (IC) and ischemic stroke (IS). We hypothesize that aortic calcium is an important predictor of CVD outcomes. Lumbar x-rays were obtained in 848 men and 1,301 women (mean ages 59.7 and 60.1 years, respectively) from the original cohort of the Framingham Heart Study. Abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) deposits were graded using a previously validated scale. Participants were categorized according to a 10-year Framingham coronary heart disease (CHD) risk score. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed to relate AAC to CVD outcomes. There were 199 IC events, 201 IS events, 702 CHD events, and 1,121 CVD events during 32 years of follow-up. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for the third versus first AAC tertile in the combined cohort were 1.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12 to 2.50) for IC, 1.73 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.65) for IS, 1.59 (95% CI 1.26 to 2.00) for CHD, and 1.64 (95% CI 1.37 to 1.97) for CVD. Hazard ratios for IC and IS were similar in magnitude to those for CHD and CVD. A high AAC score was associated with significantly higher incidence of events in subjects at intermediate Framingham CHD risk for all end points. Risk prediction based on cardiovascular risk factors improved for most outcomes when AAC was added. In conclusion, there was a graded, increasing, and independent association of AAC with incident IC and IS, similar in magnitude to risks predicted for CHD and CVD. AAC appears to be useful for risk stratification in patients at intermediate CHD risk.

Status of the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation.

Atrial fibrillation (AF), an increasingly common dysrhythmia, is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality. Currently in the United States, approximately 2.3 million people are diagnosed with AF and, based on the census, this number may rise to 5.6 million by 2050. Risk factors for AF include advancing age and cardiovascular disease and its risk factors. The chief hazard of AF is embolic stroke, which is increased four- to fivefold, assuming great importance in advanced age when it becomes a dominant factor. AF is associated with about a doubling of mortality.

Obesity and the risk of heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Extreme obesity is recognized to be a risk factor for heart failure. It is unclear whether overweight and lesser degrees of obesity also pose a risk. METHODS: We investigated the relation between the body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) and the incidence of heart failure among 5881 participants in the Framingham Heart Study (mean age, 55 years; 54 percent women). With the use of Cox proportional-hazards models, the body-mass index was evaluated both as a continuous variable and as a categorical variable (normal, 18.5 to 24.9; overweight, 25.0 to 29.9; and obese, 30.0 or more). RESULTS: During follow-up (mean, 14 years), heart failure developed in 496 subjects (258 women and 238 men). After adjustment for established risk factors, there was an increase in the risk of heart failure of 5 percent for men and 7 percent for women for each increment of 1 in body-mass index. As compared with subjects with a normal body-mass index, obese subjects had a doubling of the risk of heart failure. For women, the hazard ratio was 2.12 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.51 to 2.97); for men, the hazard ratio was 1.90 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.30 to 2.79). A graded increase in the risk of heart failure was observed across categories of body-mass index. The hazard ratios per increase in category were 1.46 in women (95 percent confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.72) and 1.37 in men (95 percent confidence interval, 1.13 to 1.67). CONCLUSIONS: In our large, community-based sample, increased body-mass index was associated with an increased risk of heart failure. Given the high prevalence of obesity in the United States, strategies to promote optimal body weight may reduce the population burden of heart failure.

Metabolic syndrome compared with type 2 diabetes mellitus as a risk factor for stroke: the Framingham Offspring Study.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been recognized as a prediabetic constellation of symptoms and an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. METHODS: To evaluate the age-adjusted risk of stroke and population-attributable risk associated with MetS and compare with those of overt type 2 diabetes mellitus (hereinafter, "diabetes"), we determined the prevalence of MetS alone, diabetes alone, and both in 2097 subjects in the Framingham Offspring Study, aged 50 to 81 years and free of stroke. Age-adjusted risk ratios, 10-year incidence, and population-attributable risks of stroke were estimated for men and women with MetS alone, diabetes alone, and both. RESULTS: Criteria for MetS were met in 30.3% of men and 24.7% of women. Twenty-four percent of men had MetS alone; 7% had diabetes alone; and 6% had both. Twenty percent of women had MetS alone; 3% had diabetes alone; and 5% had both. Over 14 years of follow-up, 75 men and 55 women developed a first stroke; all but 4 events were ischemic. Relative risk (RR) of stroke in persons with both diabetes and MetS (RR, 3.28; confidence interval [CI], 1.82-5.92) was higher than that for either condition alone (MetS alone: RR, 2.10; CI, 1.37-3.22; diabetes alone: RR, 2.47; CI, 1.31-4.65). The population-attributable risk, owing to its greater prevalence, was greater for MetS alone than for diabetes alone (19% vs 7%), particularly in women (27% vs 5%). CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic syndrome is more prevalent than diabetes and a significant independent risk factor for stroke in people without diabetes. Prevention and control of MetS and its components are likely to reduce stroke incidence.

Avoiding the looming Latino/Hispanic cardiovascular health crisis: a call to action.

CONTEXT: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death among the largest and fastest growing ethnic minority in the United States, Latinos/Hispanics. CVD risk factors such as metabolic syndrome, obesity, and diabetes are prevalent in Latinos/Hispanics at alarming rates. It is therefore imperative to understand this population's risk of CVD and the most effective and culturally sensitive treatment methods. OBJECTIVES: To review recent findings on the prevalence of CVD, CVD risk factors, and related illnesses in the US Latino/Hispanic population, and discuss gaps in the current knowledge. To summon a call for greater action on the part of governmental agencies, pharmaceutical companies, academia, industry media, professional and community organizations to address the escalating health problem of CVD and related illnesses, such as diabetes, in the Latino/Hispanic population. DATA SOURCES: An extensive PubMed and Internet literature search for studies published from January 1995 to July 2005 was conducted, using a combination of search terms (cardiovascular disease, CVD, Latino, Hispanic, prevention, guidelines, clinical trials, interventions). STUDY SELECTION: Studies meeting initial search criteria were distilled using the date of publication, study population size, and specific relevance to the topic being reviewed. DATA EXTRACTION: Data validity was assessed based on the quality of the source (large sample size, government agencies, major publications) and a consensus of the authors on perceived validity. DATA SYNTHESIS: The review found limitations in current research as well as treatment methods and options for Latinos/Hispanics at risk for developing CVD and related illnesses. CONCLUSIONS: Due to limitations in current data and trials and public health concern, additional research needs to be conducted to fully determine the best predictors of CVD and diabetes in Latino/Hispanic patients. A combined effort on the part of health-influencing and health-governing bodies is needed on all levels in order to address the CVD problem in the Latino/Hispanic population.

Pulse pressure and risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation.

CONTEXT: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality, making identification of modifiable risk factors a priority. Increased pulse pressure, a reflection of aortic stiffness, increases cardiac load and may increase AF risk. OBJECTIVE: To examine relations between pulse pressure and incident AF. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective, community-based observational cohort in Framingham, Mass, including 5331 Framingham Heart Study participants aged 35 years and older and initially free from AF (median age, 57 years; 55% women). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident AF. RESULTS: AF developed in 698 participants (13.1%) a median of 12 years after pulse pressure assessment. Cumulative 20-year AF incidence rates were 5.6% for pulse pressure of 40 mm Hg or less (25th percentile) and 23.3% for pulse pressure greater than 61 mm Hg (75th percentile). In models adjusted for age, sex, baseline and time-dependent change in mean arterial pressure, and clinical risk factors for AF (body mass index, smoking, valvular disease, diabetes, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, hypertension treatment, and prevalent myocardial infarction or heart failure), pulse pressure was associated with increased risk for AF (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.26 per 20-mm Hg increment; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.43; P<.001). In contrast, mean arterial pressure was unrelated to incident AF (adjusted HR, 0.96 per 10-mm Hg increment; 95% CI, 0.88-1.05; P = .39). Systolic pressure was related to AF (HR, 1.14 per 20-mm Hg increment; 95% CI, 1.04-1.25; P = .006); however, if diastolic pressure was added, model fit improved and the diastolic relation was inverse (adjusted HR, 0.87 per 10-mm Hg increment; 95% CI, 0.78-0.96; P = .01), consistent with a pulse pressure effect. Among patients with interpretable echocardiographic images, the association between pulse pressure and AF persisted in models that adjusted for baseline left atrial dimension, left ventricular mass, and left ventricular fractional shortening (adjusted HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.09-1.39; P = .001). CONCLUSION: Pulse pressure is an important risk factor for incident AF in a community-based sample. Further research is needed to determine whether interventions that reduce pulse pressure will limit the growing incidence of AF.

The lifetime risk of stroke: estimates from the Framingham Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The lifetime risk (LTR) of stroke has not been reported for the United States population; such data would assist public education and health planning. METHODS: Framingham Original cohort participants (n=4897) who were stroke- and dementia-free at 55 years of age were followed biennially for up to 51 years (115 146 person years). We estimated the sex-specific 10-, 20-, and 30-year risks and LTR of developing a stroke by baseline age and blood pressure (BP) and compared it with the risk of developing Alzheimer disease (AD). RESULTS: A total of 875 participants (522 women) developed a first-ever stroke; 749 (448 women) had an ischemic stroke. LTR of stroke was high and remained similar at ages 55, 65, and 75 years, approximating 1 in 5 for women and 1 in 6 for men. Participants with a normal BP (<120/80 mm Hg) had approximately half the LTR of stroke compared with those with high BP (> or =140/90 mm Hg). The LTR of AD at age 65 (292 participants; 211 women) approximated 1 in 5 for women and 1 in 10 for men. The LTR of developing either stroke or dementia approximated 1 in 3 in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: The LTR of stroke in middle-aged adults is 1 in 6 or more, which is equal to or greater than the LTR of AD. Women had a higher risk because of longer life expectancy. BP is a significant determinant of the LTR of stroke, and promotion of normal BP levels in the community might be expected to substantially reduce this risk.

Search for an optimal atherogenic lipid risk profile: from the Framingham Study.

Recent guidelines have targeted low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol for treatment of dyslipidemia. A lack of clear demarcation of potential coronary heart disease (CHD) cases solely on the basis of LDL cholesterol indicates the need to consider the dyslipidemic risk in the context of a lipid and risk factor profile. We prospectively examined the influence of individual lipids and their ratios on 20-year CHD development in 2,439 men and 2,812 women participating in the Framingham Offspring Study. The influence of the total/high-density (HDL) cholesterol ratio on CHD risk was examined in tertiles of LDL cholesterol and total cholesterol levels. During the 20-year period, 566 CHD events occurred in men and 327 events in women. The CHD risk increased stepwise two- to threefold in men and women from the first to third tertile of total/HDL cholesterol ratio, irrespective of the level of total or LDL cholesterol level. In men, the LDL cholesterol level reflected the lowest risk factor adjusted quintile 5 to quintile 1 relative risk (1.85), and the total/HDL cholesterol ratio predicted the greatest risk (relative risk 2.9). In women, LDL cholesterol imparted the highest risk of the individual lipids (relative risk 3.9), and this was not exceeded by the lipid ratio (relative risk 3.8). In conclusion, the levels of components of the total/HDL cholesterol ratio have little influence on its prediction of CHD. In men, elevated LDL need not be treated aggressively if the total/HDL cholesterol ratio is low. Conversely, modest elevations of LDL may warrant more aggressive treatment if the ratio is high. In women, the ratio is also a good CHD predictor, but a combination of a high ratio accompanied by high LDL cholesterol may warrant more aggressive therapy.

Relative importance of borderline and elevated levels of coronary heart disease risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials indicate that a sizable proportion of adults have multiple borderline coronary risk factors and may benefit from treatment. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the relative and absolute contributions of borderline and elevated risk factors to the population burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) events. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study and a national cross-sectional survey. SETTING: The Framingham Study and the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). PARTICIPANTS: White non-Hispanic persons in the Framingham Study and in NHANES III who were between 35 to 74 years of age and had no CHD. MEASUREMENTS: Occurrence of first CHD events according to 5 major CHD risk factors: blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, glucose intolerance, and smoking. Three categories-optimal, borderline, and elevated-were defined for each risk factor per national guidelines. Sex-specific 10-year CHD event rates from the Framingham Study were applied to numbers of at-risk individuals estimated from NHANES III and the 2000 U.S. Census. RESULTS: Twenty-six percent of men and 41% of women had at least 1 borderline risk factor in NHANES III. According to estimates, more than 90% of CHD events will occur in individuals with at least 1 elevated risk factor, and approximately 8% will occur in people with only borderline levels of multiple risk factors. Absolute 10-year CHD risk exceeded 10% in men older than age 45 years who had 1 elevated risk factor and 4 or more borderline risk factors and in those who had at least 2 elevated risk factors. In women, absolute CHD risk exceeded 10% only in those older than age 55 years who had at least 3 elevated risk factors. LIMITATIONS: The generalizability of the findings to persons of other ethnic backgrounds is unknown. CONCLUSIONS: Borderline CHD risk factors alone account for a small proportion of CHD events.