Reduction in unplanned hospitalizations associated with a physician focused intervention to reduce potentially inappropriate medication use among older adults: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A multimodal general practitioner-focused intervention in the Local Health Authority (LHA) of Parma, Italy, substantially reduced the prevalence of potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) use among older adults. Our objective was to estimate changes in hospitalization rates associated with the Parma LHA quality improvement initiative that reduced PIM use. METHODS: This population-based longitudinal cohort study was conducted among older residents (> 65 years) using the Parma LHA administrative healthcare database. Crude and adjusted unplanned hospitalization rates were estimated in 3 periods (pre-intervention: 2005-2008, intervention: 2009-2010, post-intervention: 2011-2014). Multivariable negative binomial models estimated trends in quarterly hospitalization rates among individuals at risk during each period using a piecewise linear spline for time, adjusted for time-dependent and time-fixed covariates. RESULTS: The pre-intervention, intervention, and post-intervention periods included 117,061, 107,347, and 121,871 older adults and had crude hospitalization rates of 146.2 (95% CI: 142.2-150.3), 146.8 (95% CI: 143.6-150.0), and 140.8 (95% CI: 136.9-144.7) per 1000 persons per year, respectively. The adjusted pre-intervention hospitalization rate was declining by 0.7% per quarter (IRR = 0.993; 95% CI: 0.991-0.995). The hospitalization rate declined more than twice as fast during the intervention period (1.8% per quarter, IRR = 0.982; 95% CI: 0.979-0.985) and was nearly constant post-intervention (IRR: 0.999; 95% CI: 0.997-1.001). Contrasting model predictions for the intervention period (Q1 2009 to Q4 2010), the intervention was associated with 1481 avoided hospitalizations. CONCLUSION: In a large population of older adults, a multimodal general practitioner-focused intervention to decrease PIM use was associated with a decline in the unplanned hospitalization rate. Such interventions to reduce high risk medication use among older adults warrant consideration by health systems seeking to improve health outcomes and reduce high-cost acute care utilization.

Do intraoperative pyloric interventions predict the need for postoperative endoscopic interventions after minimally invasive esophagectomy?

Intraoperative pyloric procedures are often performed during esophagectomies to reduce the rates of gastric conduit dysfunction. They include pyloroplasty (PP), pyloromyotomy (PM), and pylorus botulinum toxin type-A injections (BI). Despite these procedures, patients frequently warrant further endoscopic interventions. The aim of this study is to compare intraoperative pyloric procedures and the rates of postoperative endoscopic interventions following minimally invasive esophagectomy (MIE). We identified patients who underwent MIE for esophageal carcinoma and grouped them as 'None' (no intervention), 'PP', 'PM', or 'BI' based on intraoperative pyloric procedure type. The rates of endoscopic interventions for the first six postoperative months were compared. To adjust for variability due to MIE type, the rates of >1 interventions were compared using a zero-inflated Poisson regression analysis. Significance was established at P < 0.05. There were 146 patients who underwent an MIE for esophageal cancer from 2008 to 2015; 77.4% were three-hole MIE, and 22.6% were Ivor- Lewis MIE. BI was most frequent in Ivor-Lewis patients (63.5%), while PP was most frequent (46.9%) in three-hole patients. Postoperative endoscopic interventions occurred in 38 patients (26.0%). The BI group had the highest percentage of patients requiring a postoperative intervention (n = 13, 31.7%). After adjusting for higher rates of interventions in three-hole MIE patients, the BI and None groups had the lowest rates of >1 postoperative interventions. Our data did not show superiority of any pyloric intervention in preventing endoscopic interventions. The patients who received BI to the pylorus demonstrated a trend toward a greater likelihood of having a postoperative intervention. However when adjusted for type of MIE, the BI and None groups had lower rates of subsequent multiple interventions. Further research is needed to determine if the choice of intraoperative pyloric procedure type significantly affects quality of life, morbidity, and overall prognosis in these patients.

The importance of prediction model validation and assessment in obesity and nutrition research.

Deriving statistical models to predict one variable from one or more other variables, or predictive modeling, is an important activity in obesity and nutrition research. To determine the quality of the model, it is necessary to quantify and report the predictive validity of the derived models. Conducting validation of the predictive measures provides essential information to the research community about the model. Unfortunately, many articles fail to account for the nearly inevitable reduction in predictive ability that occurs when a model derived on one data set is applied to a new data set. Under some circumstances, the predictive validity can be reduced to nearly zero. In this overview, we explain why reductions in predictive validity occur, define the metrics commonly used to estimate the predictive validity of a model (for example, coefficient of determination (R(2)), mean squared error, sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic and concordance index) and describe methods to estimate the predictive validity (for example, cross-validation, bootstrap, and adjusted and shrunken R(2)). We emphasize that methods for estimating the expected reduction in predictive ability of a model in new samples are available and this expected reduction should always be reported when new predictive models are introduced.

Inappropriate prescribing in a large community-dwelling older population: a focus on prevalence and how it relates to patient and physician characteristics.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: The prescription of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) for older adults is a well-known population health concern. Updated country-specific estimates of inappropriate prescribing in older adults using germane explicit criteria are needed to facilitate physician-tailored quality improvement strategies. Therefore, we sought to determine the prevalence of PIMs for older adults in Emilia-Romagna, Italy, using the updated Maio criteria. We also evaluated patient and general practitioner (GP) characteristics related to inappropriate prescribing. METHODS: Older adults (≥ 65) in 2012 were evaluated in a one-year retrospective study using administrative health care data. The 2011 Maio criteria includes 25 medications reimbursed by the Italian National Formulary, in the following categories in terms of severity: 16 medications that 'should always be avoided,' 3 that are 'rarely appropriate,' and 6 that have 'some indications although they are often misused.' To evaluate the extent of associations between patient and GP related characteristics, we used generalized estimating equations with an exchangeable covariance design to fit robust logistic regression models. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: A total of 865,354 older adults were in the cohort and 28% had at least one PIM. Of the entire cohort, 8%, 10%, and 14% of individuals were prescribed at least one medication that 'should always be avoided,' is 'rarely appropriate,' and has 'some indications but are often misused,' respectively. Older patients (≥ 75) and females were more likely to be exposed to PIMs. 2,923 GPs were identified in the region, each having prescribed at least one PIM, of which older GPs (≥ 56), male GPs, and solo practice GPs were more likely to prescribe PIMs to their older patients. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: The high prevalence of PIM exposure among older adults is a substantial issue in the region. Knowing how patient and GP characteristics relate to PIMs exposure may improve the design and targeting of initiatives for improving prescribing safety in this population.

Evaluating sustained quality improvements: long-term effectiveness of a physician-focused intervention to reduce potentially inappropriate medication prescribing in an older population.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVES: Although quality improvement initiatives targeting physician practice patterns have been effective, evidence is lacking on their long-term sustainability. We previously demonstrated the success of a population-wide, physician-focused quality improvement intervention targeting potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) in an aged population of the Local Health Authority (LHA) of Parma, Italy. We sought to assess whether the decrease in PIP incidence rates achieved during the intervention was sustained after discontinuation of the intervention, and which factors modified the effectiveness of the intervention. METHODS: Using a regional administrative claims database, we assessed changes in quarterly PIP exposure incidence rates for each phase [pre-intervention (2005 Q1-2007 Q3), intervention (2007 Q4-2009 Q4) and post-intervention (2010 Q1-Q4)] of the study for both all and newly PIP-exposed patients. Piecewise-linear longitudinal logistic regression was used to model the odds of PIP exposure. RESULTS: 299 GPs (98·7%) serving 111,282 older patients were included. PIP incidence rates declined from 7·1% (pre-intervention) to 4·9% (intervention), and to 4·3% (post-intervention). There was no significant change in odds of PIP exposure following the intervention period (P = 0·52), and the rates of change in PIP exposure odds during pre-intervention and post-intervention periods were not significantly different (P = 0·39). The intervention was attributed to an 18% long-term reduction in the odds of PIP exposure. No assessed patient or GP characteristics modified this effect. Results among patients newly exposed to PIP were similar to results among all patients exposed to PIP. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: The significant reduction in the odds of PIP exposure achieved during the intervention was sustained after its discontinuation. Because the intervention showed success across the spectrum of patients and providers, it shows promise for generalizability to other healthcare settings.

Body mass index and mortality rate among Hispanic adults: a pooled analysis of multiple epidemiologic data sets.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between body mass index (BMI, kg m⁻²) and mortality rate among Hispanic adults. METHODS AND PROCEDURES: Analysis of five data sets (total N=16,798) identified after searching for publicly available, prospective cohort data sets containing relevant information for at least 500 Hispanic respondents (≥18 years at baseline), at least 5 years of mortality follow-up, and measured height and weight. Data sets included the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the Puerto Rico Heart Health Program (PRHHP), the Hispanic Established Population for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (HEPESE), the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging. RESULTS: Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusting for sex and smoking, were fit within three attained-age strata (18 to younger than 60 years, 60 to younger than 70 years, and 70 years and older). We found that underweight was associated with elevated mortality rate for all age groups in the PRHHP (hazard ratios [HRs]=1.38-1.60) and the SAHS (HRs=1.88-2.51). Overweight (HRs=0.38 and 0.84) and obesity grade 2-3 (HRs=0.75 and 0.60) associated with reduced mortality rate in the HEPESE dataset for those in the 60 to younger than 70 years, and 70 years and older attained-age strata. Weighted estimates combining the HRs across the data sets revealed a similar pattern. CONCLUSION: Among Hispanic adults, there was no clear evidence that overweight and obesity associate with elevated mortality rate.

Testing a Prostate Cancer Educational Intervention in High-Burden Neighborhoods.

To better capitalize on our enhanced understanding of prostate cancer (PCa) risk factors, it is important to better understand how knowledge and attitudes contribute to ethnic disparities in PCa outcomes. The goal of this study was to test the impact of a targeted PCa educational intervention vs. a healthy lifestyle educational control intervention on levels of knowledge, concern, and intention to screen for PCa.We recruited 239 men from neighborhoods with the highest PCa burden in Philadelphia. We assigned 118 men from two of the neighborhoods to the control group 121 men from 2 other neighborhoods to the intervention group. Repeated outcome assessment measures were obtained by administering the survey at baseline, post-session, 1 month post-session, and 4 months post-session.We conducted descriptive statistics to characterize the study sample and linear mixed effect regression models to analyze the intervention's effect on the outcomes. At baseline, we observed no differences in the outcomes between the PCa-targeted intervention and healthy lifestyle control groups.We found that knowledge of PCa and intention to screen increased significantly over time for both the control and intervention groups (p ≤ 0.01 at the 4-month follow-up). In contrast, change in the level of PCa concern was only significant for the intervention group immediately post-session and at 1-month follow-up (p = 0.04 and p = 0.01, respectively).This study showed that gathering at-risk men for discussions about PCa or other health concerns may increase their PCa knowledge and intention to talk to a doctor about PCa screening.

Use of self-reported height and weight biases the body mass index-mortality association.

BACKGROUND: Many large-scale epidemiological data sources used to evaluate the body mass index (BMI: kg/m(2)) mortality association have relied on BMI derived from self-reported height and weight. Although measured BMI (BMI(M)) and self-reported BMI (BMI(SR)) correlate highly, self-reports are systematically biased. OBJECTIVE: To rigorously examine how self-reporting bias influences the association between BMI and mortality rate. SUBJECTS: Samples representing the US non-institutionalized civilian population. DESIGN AND METHODS: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data (NHANES II: 1976-80; NHANES III: 1988-94) contain BMI(M) and BMI(SR). We applied Cox regression to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for BMI(M) and BMI(SR) categories, respectively, and compared results. We similarly analyzed subgroups of ostensibly healthy never-smokers. RESULTS: Misclassification by BMI(SR) among the underweight and obesity ranged from 30-40% despite high correlations between BMI(M) and BMI(SR) (r>0.9). The reporting bias was moderately correlated with BMI(M) (r>0.35), but not BMI(SR) (r<0.15). Analyses using BMI(SR) failed to detect six of eight significant mortality HRs detected by BMI(M). Significantly biased HRs were detected in the NHANES II full data set (χ(2)=12.49; P=0.01) and healthy subgroup (χ(2)=9.93; P=0.04), but not in the NHANES III full data set (χ(2)=5.63; P=0.23) or healthy subgroup (χ(2)=1.52; P=0.82). CONCLUSIONS: BMI(SR) should not be treated as interchangeable with BMI(M) in BMI mortality analyses. Bias and inconsistency introduced by using BMI(SR) in place of BMI(M) in BMI mortality estimation and hypothesis tests may account for important discrepancies in published findings.

Obesity and mortality: are the risks declining? Evidence from multiple prospective studies in the United States.

We evaluated whether the obesity-associated years of life lost (YLL) have decreased over calendar time. We implemented a meta-analysis including only studies with two or more serial body mass index (BMI) assessments at different calendar years. For each BMI category (normal weight: BMI 18.5 to <25 [reference]; overweight: BMI 25 to <30; grade 1 obesity: BMI 30 to <35; and grade 2-3 obesity: BMI ≥ 35), we estimated the YLL change between 1970 and 1990. Because of low sample sizes for African-American, results are reported on Caucasian. Among men aged ≤60 years YLL for grade 1 obesity increased by 0.72 years (P < 0.001) and by 1.02 years (P = 0.01) for grade 2-3 obesity. For men aged >60, YLL for grade 1 obesity decreased by 1.02 years (P < 0.001) and increased by 0.63 years for grade 2-3 obesity (P = 0.63). Among women aged ≤60, YLL for grade 1 obesity decreased by 4.21 years (P < 0.001) and by 4.97 years (P < 0.001) for grade 2-3 obesity. In women aged >60, YLL for grade 1 obesity decreased by 3.98 years (P < 0.001) and by 2.64 years (P = 0.001) for grade 2-3 obesity. Grade 1 obesity's association with decreased longevity has reduced for older Caucasian men. For Caucasian women, there is evidence of a decline in the obesity YLL association across all ages.

Risk factors associated with urinary albumin excretion in African Americans.

Microalbuminuria is considered a marker of heightened risk for cardiovascular events. We examined cardiovascular risk factors, including inflammatory cytokines, which contribute to urinary albumin excretion (UAE) in a cross-sectional study of African Americans aged 18-49 years. Measurements included a timed overnight urine collection for UAE, blood pressure (BP), body mass index, glucose, lipids, insulin and inflammatory cytokines. Non-normally distributed variables were log transformed for analysis using multiple linear regressions. Data were obtained from 488 participants with mean age 37.8 years; 50% were obese, 42% had hypertension. Log UAE correlated significantly with systolic BP (SBP) (geometric mean ratio=1.011; 95% confidence interval 1.003-1.019). When subjects were stratified into four UAE groups, the only variables significantly different between groups were SBP (P=0.013) and diastolic BP (P=0.036). There were no statistically significant associations with obesity, metabolic parameters, insulin resistance or any inflammatory cytokines identified. In young, relatively healthy, African Americans, BP level is significantly associated with levels of UAE even below the threshold for microalbuminuria. The presence of diabetes and insulin resistance in the absence of high BP did not seem to contribute significantly to UAE in this cohort.

Putative contributors to the secular increase in obesity: exploring the roads less traveled.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate plausible contributors to the obesity epidemic beyond the two most commonly suggested factors, reduced physical activity and food marketing practices. DESIGN: A narrative review of data and published materials that provide evidence of the role of additional putative factors in contributing to the increasing prevalence of obesity. DATA: Information was drawn from ecological and epidemiological studies of humans, animal studies and studies addressing physiological mechanisms, when available. RESULTS: For at least 10 putative additional explanations for the increased prevalence of obesity over the recent decades, we found supportive (although not conclusive) evidence that in many cases is as compelling as the evidence for more commonly discussed putative explanations. CONCLUSION: Undue attention has been devoted to reduced physical activity and food marketing practices as postulated causes for increases in the prevalence of obesity, leading to neglect of other plausible mechanisms and well-intentioned, but potentially ill-founded proposals for reducing obesity rates.