Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.

Regional-scale dominance of non-framework building corals on Caribbean reefs affects carbonate production and future reef growth.

Coral cover on Caribbean reefs has declined rapidly since the early 1980's. Diseases have been a major driver, decimating communities of framework building Acropora and Orbicella coral species, and reportedly leading to the emergence of novel coral assemblages often dominated by domed and plating species of the genera Agaricia, Porites and Siderastrea. These corals were not historically important Caribbean framework builders, and typically have much smaller stature and lower calcification rates, fuelling concerns over reef carbonate production and growth potential. Using data from 75 reefs from across the Caribbean we quantify: (i) the magnitude of non-framework building coral dominance throughout the region and (ii) the contribution of these corals to contemporary carbonate production. Our data show that live coral cover averages 18.2% across our sites and coral carbonate production 4.1 kg CaCO3  m(-2)  yr(-1) . However, non-framework building coral species dominate and are major carbonate producers at a high proportion of sites; they are more abundant than Acropora and Orbicella at 73% of sites; contribute an average 68% of the carbonate produced; and produce more than half the carbonate at 79% of sites. Coral cover and carbonate production rate are strongly correlated but, as relative abundance of non-framework building corals increases, average carbonate production rates decline. Consequently, the use of coral cover as a predictor of carbonate budget status, without species level production rate data, needs to be treated with caution. Our findings provide compelling evidence for the Caribbean-wide dominance of non-framework building coral taxa, and that these species are now major regional carbonate producers. However, because these species typically have lower calcification rates, continued transitions to states dominated by non-framework building coral species will further reduce carbonate production rates below 'predecline' levels, resulting in shifts towards negative carbonate budget states and reducing reef growth potential.

Changing dynamics of Caribbean reef carbonate budgets: emergence of reef bioeroders as critical controls on present and future reef growth potential.

Coral cover has declined rapidly on Caribbean reefs since the early 1980s, reducing carbonate production and reef growth. Using a cross-regional dataset, we show that widespread reductions in bioerosion rates-a key carbonate cycling process-have accompanied carbonate production declines. Bioerosion by parrotfish, urchins, endolithic sponges and microendoliths collectively averages 2 G (where G = kg CaCO3 m(-2) yr(-1)) (range 0.96-3.67 G). This rate is at least 75% lower than that reported from Caribbean reefs prior to their shift towards their present degraded state. Despite chronic overfishing, parrotfish are the dominant bioeroders, but erosion rates are reduced from averages of approximately 4 to 1.6 G. Urchin erosion rates have declined further and are functionally irrelevant to bioerosion on most reefs. These changes demonstrate a fundamental shift in Caribbean reef carbonate budget dynamics. To-date, reduced bioerosion rates have partially offset carbonate production declines, limiting the extent to which more widespread transitions to negative budget states have occurred. However, given the poor prognosis for coral recovery in the Caribbean and reported shifts to coral community states dominated by slower calcifying taxa, a continued transition from production to bioerosion-controlled budget states, which will increasingly threaten reef growth, is predicted.

Effects of Environmental and Climatic Changes on Coral Reef Islands.

Coral reef islands are low-lying, wave-deposited sedimentary landforms. Using an eco-morphodynamic framework, this review examines the sensitivity of islands to climatic and environmental change. Reef island formation and morphological dynamics are directly controlled by nearshore wave processes and ecologically mediated sediment supply. The review highlights that reef islands are intrinsically dynamic landforms, able to adjust their morphology (size, shape, and location) on reef surfaces in response to changes in these processes. A suite of ecological and oceanographic processes also indirectly impact hydrodynamic and sediment processes and thereby regulate morphological change, though the temporal scales and magnitudes of impacts on islands vary, leading to divergent morphodynamic outcomes. Climatic change will modify the direct and indirect processes, causing complex positive and negative outcomes on islands. Understanding this complexity is critical to improve predictive capabilities for island physical change and resolve the timescales of change and lag times for impacts to be expressed in island systems.

Rethinking atoll futures: local resilience to global challenges.

Atoll islands are often perceived as inevitably lost due to rising sea levels. However, unlike other islands, atoll islands are dynamic landforms that have evolved, at least historically, to vertically accrete at a pace commensurate with changing sea levels. Rather than atoll islands' low elevation per se, the impairment of natural accretion processes is jeopardising their persistence. While global marine impacts are deteriorating coral reefs, local impacts also significantly affect accretion, together potentially tipping the scales toward atoll island erosion. Maintaining atoll island accretion requires intact sediment generation on coral reefs, unobstructed sediment transport from reef to island, and available vegetated deposition sites on the island. Ensuring the persistence of atoll islands must include global greenhouse gas emission reduction and local restoration of accretion processes.

Sediment supply dampens the erosive effects of sea-level rise on reef islands.

Large uncertainty surrounds the future physical stability of low-lying coral reef islands due to a limited understanding of the geomorphic response of islands to changing environmental conditions. Physical and numerical modelling efforts have improved understanding of the modes and styles of island change in response to increasing wave and water level conditions. However, the impact of sediment supply on island morphodynamics has not been addressed and remains poorly understood. Here we present evidence from the first physical modelling experiments to explore the effect of storm-derived sediment supply on the geomorphic response of islands to changes in sea level and energetic wave conditions. Results demonstrate that a sediment supply has a substantial influence on island adjustments in response to sea-level rise, promoting the increase of the elevation of the island while dampening island migration and subaerial volume reduction. The implications of sediment supply are significant as it improves the potential of islands to offset the impacts of future flood events, increasing the future physical persistence of reef islands. Results emphasize the urgent need to incorporate the physical response of islands to both physical and ecological processes in future flood risk models.

Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations.

Sea-level rise and climatic change threaten the existence of atoll nations. Inundation and erosion are expected to render islands uninhabitable over the next century, forcing human migration. Here we present analysis of shoreline change in all 101 islands in the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu. Using remotely sensed data, change is analysed over the past four decades, a period when local sea level has risen at twice the global average (~3.90 ± 0.4 mm.yr-1). Results highlight a net increase in land area in Tuvalu of 73.5 ha (2.9%), despite sea-level rise, and land area increase in eight of nine atolls. Island change has lacked uniformity with 74% increasing and 27% decreasing in size. Results challenge perceptions of island loss, showing islands are dynamic features that will persist as sites for habitation over the next century, presenting alternate opportunities for adaptation that embrace the heterogeneity of island types and their dynamics.

Water flow buffers shifts in bacterial community structure in heat-stressed Acropora muricata.

Deterioration of coral health and associated change in the coral holobiont's bacterial community are often a result of different environmental stressors acting synergistically. There is evidence that water flow is important for a coral's resistance to elevated seawater temperature, but there is no information on how water flow affects the coral-associated bacterial community under these conditions. In a laboratory cross-design experiment, Acropora muricata nubbins were subjected to interactive effects of seawater temperature (27 °C to 31 °C) and water flow (0.20 m s-1 and 0.03 m s-1). In an in situ experiment, water flow manipulation was conducted with three colonies of A. muricata during the winter and summer, by partially enclosing each colony in a clear plastic mesh box. 16S rRNA amplicon pyrosequencing showed an increase in the relative abundance of Flavobacteriales and Rhodobacterales in the laboratory experiment, and Vibrio spp. in the in situ experiment when corals were exposed to elevated temperature and slow water flow. In contrast, corals that were exposed to faster water flow under laboratory and in situ conditions had a stable bacterial community. These findings indicate that water flow plays an important role in the maintenance of specific coral-bacteria associations during times of elevated thermal stress.

Mucus Sugar Content Shapes the Bacterial Community Structure in Thermally Stressed Acropora muricata.

It has been proposed that the chemical composition of a coral's mucus can influence the associated bacterial community. However, information on this topic is rare, and non-existent for corals that are under thermal stress. This study therefore compared the carbohydrate composition of mucus in the coral Acropora muricata when subjected to increasing thermal stress from 26 to 31°C, and determined whether this composition correlated with any changes in the bacterial community. Results showed that, at lower temperatures, the main components of mucus were N-acetyl glucosamine and C6 sugars, but these constituted a significantly lower proportion of the mucus in thermally stressed corals. The change in the mucus composition coincided with a shift from a γ-Proteobacteria- to a Verrucomicrobiae- and α-Proteobacteria-dominated community in the coral mucus. Bacteria in the class Cyanobacteria also started to become prominent in the mucus when the coral was thermally stressed. The increase in the relative abundance of the Verrucomicrobiae at higher temperature was strongly associated with a change in the proportion of fucose, glucose, and mannose in the mucus. Increase in the relative abundance of α-Proteobacteria were associated with GalNAc and glucose, while the drop in relative abundance of γ-Proteobacteria at high temperature coincided with changes in fucose and mannose. Cyanobacteria were highly associated with arabinose and xylose. Changes in mucus composition and the bacterial community in the mucus layer occurred at 29°C, which were prior to visual signs of coral bleaching at 31°C. A compositional change in the coral mucus, induced by thermal stress could therefore be a key factor leading to a shift in the associated bacterial community. This, in turn, has the potential to impact the physiological function of the coral holobiont.

Successive shifts in the microbial community of the surface mucus layer and tissues of the coral Acropora muricata under thermal stress.

The coral mucus may harbor commensal bacteria that inhibit growth of pathogens. Therefore, there is a need to understand the dynamics of bacterial communities between the coral mucus and tissues. Nubbins of Acropora muricata were subjected to increasing water temperatures of 26°C-33°C, to simultaneously explore the bacterial diversity in coral mucus and tissues by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Photochemical efficiency of symbiotic dinoflagellates within the corals declined above 31°C. Both the mucus and tissues of healthy A. muricata were dominated by γ-Proteobacteria, but under thermal stress there was a shift towards bacteria from the Verrucomicrobiaceae and α-Proteobacteria. Members of Cyanobacteria, Flavobacteria and Sphingobacteria also become more prominent at higher temperatures. The relative abundance of Vibrio spp. in the coral mucus increased at 29°C, but at 31°C, there was a drop in the relative abundance of Vibrio spp. in the mucus, with a reciprocal increase in the tissues. On the other hand, during bleaching, the relative abundance of Endozoicomonas spp. decreased in the tissues with a reciprocal increase in the mucus. This is the first systematic experiment that shows the potential for a bacterial community shift between the coral surface mucus and tissues in a thermally stressed coral.

Heavy metal contamination of coastal lagoon sediments: Fongafale Islet, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu.

To evaluate contamination of coastal sediments along Fongafale Islet, Central Pacific, a field survey was conducted in densely populated, sparsely populated, open dumping and undisturbed natural areas. Current measurements in shallow water of the lagoon indicated that contaminants from the densely populated area would only be transported for a small proportion of a tidal cycle. Acid-volatile sulfides were detected in both the intertidal beach and nearshore zones of the densely populated area, whereas these were no detection in the other areas. This observation lends support to argument that the coastal pollution mechanism that during ebb tide, domestic wastewater leaking from poorly constructed sanitary facilities seeps into the coast. The total concentrations of Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were relatively high in all of the areas except the undisturbed natural area. The indices of contamination factor, pollution load index and geoaccumulation index were indicative of heavy metal pollution in the three areas. The densely populated area has the most significant contamination; domestic wastewater led to significant contamination of coastal sediments with Cr, Zn, Cu, Pb and Cd. The open dumping area is noteworthy with respect to Mn and Ni, which can be derived from disposed batteries.

Caribbean-wide decline in carbonate production threatens coral reef growth.

Global-scale deteriorations in coral reef health have caused major shifts in species composition. One projected consequence is a lowering of reef carbonate production rates, potentially impairing reef growth, compromising ecosystem functionality and ultimately leading to net reef erosion. Here, using measures of gross and net carbonate production and erosion from 19 Caribbean reefs, we show that contemporary carbonate production rates are now substantially below historical (mid- to late-Holocene) values. On average, current production rates are reduced by at least 50%, and 37% of surveyed sites were net erosional. Calculated accretion rates (mm year(-1)) for shallow fore-reef habitats are also close to an order of magnitude lower than Holocene averages. A live coral cover threshold of ~10% appears critical to maintaining positive production states. Below this ecological threshold carbonate budgets typically become net negative and threaten reef accretion. Collectively, these data suggest that recent ecological declines are now suppressing Caribbean reef growth potential.