The economic value of changing mortality risk in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic breakdown by cause of death.

BACKGROUND: We develop a framework for quantifying monetary values associated with changes in disease-specific mortality risk in low- and middle-income countries to help quantify trade-offs involved in investing in mortality reduction due to one disease versus another. METHODS: We monetized the changes in mortality risk for communicable and non-communicable diseases (CD and NCD, respectively) between 2017 and 2030 for low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries (LICs, LMICs, and UMICs, respectively). We modeled three mortality trajectories ("base-case", "high-performance", and "low-performance") using Global Burden of Disease study forecasts and estimated disease-specific mortality risk changes relative to the base-case. We assigned monetary values to changes in mortality risk using value of a statistical life (VSL) methods and conducted multiple sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: In terms of NCDs, the absolute monetary value associated with changing mortality risk was highest for cardiovascular diseases in older age groups. For example, being on the low-performance trajectory relative to the base-case in 2030 was valued at $9100 (95% uncertainty range $6800; $11,400), $28,300 ($24,200; $32,400), and $30,300 ($27,200; $33,300) for females aged 70-74 years in LICs, LMICs, and UMICs, respectively. Changing the mortality rate from the base-case to the high-performance trajectory was associated with high monetary value for CDs as well, especially among younger age groups. Estimates were sensitive to assumptions made in calculating VSL. CONCLUSIONS: Our framework provides a priority setting paradigm to best allocate investments toward the health sector and enables intersectoral comparisons of returns on investments from health interventions.

Exploring reasons for discontinuing use of immediate post-partum intrauterine device in Nepal: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Postpartum intrauterine device (PPIUD) use remains very low in Nepal despite high levels of unmet need for postpartum family planning and the national government's efforts to promote its use. This study investigates reasons for continuing or discontinuing PPIUD use among Nepali women. METHODS: We conducted in-depth interviews (IDIs) with 13 women who had discontinued PPIUD use and 12 women who were continuing to use the method 9 months or longer following the insertion. All interviews were audio recorded, transcribed, translated into English, and analyzed using a thematic approach. RESULTS: Women discontinued PPIUD for several reasons: 1) side effects such as excessive bleeding during menstruation, nausea, back and abdominal pain; 2) poor quality of counselling and, relatedly, mismatched expectations in terms of device use; and 3) lack of family support from husbands and in-laws. In contrast, women who were continuing to use the method at the time of the study stated that they had not experienced side-effects, had received appropriate information during counselling sessions, and had the backing of their family members in terms of using PPIUD. CONCLUSION: Experiencing side-effects or complications following PPIUD insertion and poor quality of family planning counselling were the two main reasons for discontinuation. Family members appeared to play a major role in influencing a woman's decision to continue or discontinue PPIUD suggesting that counseling may need to be expanded to them as well. Improving quality of counselling by providing complete and balanced information of family planning methods as well as ensuring sufficient time for counselling and extending PPIUD service availability at lower level clinics/health posts will potentially increase the uptake and continued use of postpartum family planning, including PPIUD, in Nepal.

Correction to: Malaria control across borders: quasi-experimental evidence from the Trans-Kunene malaria initiative (TKMI).

Following publication of the original article [1], the authors flagged an error in Addition file 6.

Malaria control across borders: quasi-experimental evidence from the Trans-Kunene malaria initiative (TKMI).

BACKGROUND: The transmission of malaria through population inflows from highly endemic areas with limited control efforts poses major challenges for national malaria control programmes. Several multilateral programmes have been launched in recent years to address cross-border transmission. This study assesses the potential impact of such a programme at the Angolan-Namibian border. METHODS: Community-based malaria prevention programmes involving bed net distribution and behaviour change home visits were rolled-out using a controlled, staggered (stepped wedge) design between May 2014 and July 2016 in a 100 × 40 km corridor along the Angolan-Namibian border. Three rounds of survey data were collected. The primary outcome studied was fever among children under five in the 2 weeks prior to the survey. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were used to assess overall programme impact and the relative impact of unilateral versus coordinated bilateral intervention programmes. RESULTS: A total of 3844 child records were analysed. On average, programme rollout reduced the odds of child fever by 54% (aOR: 0.46, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.73) over the intervention period. In Namibia, the programme reduced the odds of fever by 30% in areas without simultaneous Angolan efforts (aOR: 0.70, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.44), and by an additional 62% in areas with simultaneous Angolan programmes. In Angola, the programme was highly effective in areas within 5 km of Namibian programmes (OR: 0.37, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.62), but mostly ineffective in areas closer to inland Angolan areas without concurrent anti-malarial efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of malaria programmes depends on programme efforts in surrounding areas with differential control efforts. Coordinated malaria programming within and across countries will be critical for achieving the vision of a malaria free world.

Delivering postpartum family planning services in Nepal: are providers supportive?

BACKGROUND: Health service providers play a key role in addressing women's need for pregnancy prevention, especially during the postpartum period. Yet, in Nepal, little is known about their views on providing postpartum family planning (PPFP) services and postpartum contraceptive methods such as immediate postpartum intra-uterine devices (PPIUD). This paper explores the perspectives of different types of providers on PPFP including PPIUD, their confidence in providing PPFP services, and their willingness to share their knowledge and skills with colleagues after receiving PPFP and PPIUD training. METHODS: In-depth interviews were conducted with 14 obstetricians/gynecologists and nurses from six tertiary level public hospitals in Nepal after they received PPFP and PPIUD training as part of an intervention aimed at integrating PPFP counseling and insertion into routine maternity care services. The interviews were audio recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using a thematic approach. RESULTS: Providers identified several advantages of PPFP, supported the provision of such services, and were willing to transfer their newly acquired skills to colleagues in other facilities who had not received PPFP and PPIUD training. However, many providers identified several supply-side and training-related barriers to providing high quality PPFP services, such as, (i) lack of adequate human resources, particularly a FP counselor; (ii) work overload; (iii) lack of private space for counseling; (iv) lack of IUDs and information, education and counseling materials; and (v) lack of support from hospital management. CONCLUSIONS: Providers appeared to be motivated to deliver quality PPFP services and transfer their knowledge to colleagues but identified several barriers which prevented them from doing so. Future efforts to improve provision of quality PPFP services should address the barriers identified by providers.

Food Insecurity, Memory, and Dementia Among US Adults Aged 50 Years and Older.

Importance: Despite existing federal programs to increase access to food, food insecurity is common among US older adults. Food insecurity may affect Alzheimer disease and Alzheimer disease-related dementias via multiple mechanisms, yet there is almost no quantitative research evaluating this association. Objective: To examine whether food insecurity in older adults is associated with later-life cognitive outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study of US residents aged 50 years and older from the US Health and Retirement Study was restricted to respondents with food insecurity data in 2013 and cognitive outcome data between calendar years 2014 and 2018. Analyses were conducted from June 1 to September 22, 2023. Exposure: Food insecurity status in 2013 was assessed using the validated US Department of Agriculture 6-item Household Food Security Module. Respondents were classified as being food secure, low food secure, and very low food secure. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were dementia probability and memory score (standardized to 1998 units), estimated biennially between 2014 and 2018 using a previously validated algorithm. Generalized estimation equations were fit for dementia risk and linear mixed-effects models for memory score, taking selective attrition into account through inverse probability of censoring weights. Results: The sample consisted of 7012 participants (18 356 person-waves); mean (SD) age was 67.7 (10.0) years, 4131 (58.9%) were women, 1136 (16.2%) were non-Hispanic Black, 4849 (69.2%) were non-Hispanic White, and mean (SD) duration of schooling was 13.0 (3.0) years. Compared with food-secure older adults, experiencing low food security was associated with higher odds of dementia (odds ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.15-1.67) as was experiencing very low food security (odds ratio, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.11-1.59). Low and very low food security was also associated with lower memory levels and faster age-related memory decline. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of older US residents, food insecurity was associated with increased dementia risk, poorer memory function, and faster memory decline. Future studies are needed to examine whether addressing food insecurity may benefit brain health.

Impact of orthogeriatric care management by orthopedic surgeons and physicians on in-hospital clinical outcomes: A difference-in-difference analysis.

AIM: The orthopedic surgery unit in our suburb serves a large elderly trauma population in addition to providing elective surgeries. As patients with hip fractures have become older and at higher risk of medical complications, our hospital has initiated integrated co-management of these patients by orthopedic surgeons and geriatricians from the point of hospital admission. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the hospital policy change on hip fracture management and clinical outcome indicators. METHODS: Using the difference-in-difference approach, in total, 288 consecutive patients with hip fractures treated during the 1 year before and 2 years after transition to orthogeriatric care from a geriatric consultation model to integrated orthogeriatric care model were compared with 576 patients from other local hospitals. RESULTS: Despite a seasonal trend toward increased length of hospital stay in winter, the intervention significantly reduced the change in mean length of stay (mean difference [95% confidence interval], -12.9 days [-21.5 to -4.3]; P = 0.007) and discharge to home tended to change less frequently (-12.6%; P = 0.10). There was no significant reduction in mean time to surgery (-0.2 days; P = 0.83), mortality (-0.8%; P = 0.62), or complications (-1.0%; P = 0.85). CONCLUSIONS: Changing our hip fracture service from a geriatric consultation model of care to an integrated orthogeriatric model significantly reduced length of hospital stay probably due to a lower chance of discharge to home. To our knowledge, this is the first study in Japan to compare two orthogeriatric care models considering the nationwide improvement in hip fracture management. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2022; 22: 138-144.

Understanding the Pathways from Prenatal and Post-Birth PM2.5 Exposure to Infant Death: An Observational Analysis Using US Vital Records (2011-2013).

We studied the relationship of prenatal and post-birth exposure to particulate matter < 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) with infant mortality for all births between 2011 and 2013 in the conterminous United States. Prenatal exposure was defined separately for each trimester, post-birth exposure was defined in the 12 months following the prenatal period, and infant mortality was defined as death in the first year of life. For the analysis, we merged over 10 million cohort-linked live birth-infant death records with daily, county-level PM2.5 concentration data and then fit a Structural Equation Model controlling for several individual- and county-level confounders. We estimated direct paths from the two exposures to infant death as well as indirect paths from the prenatal exposure to the outcome through preterm birth and low birth weight. Prenatal PM2.5 exposure was positively associated with infant death across all trimesters, although the relationship was strongest in the third trimester. The direct pathway from the prenatal exposure to the outcome accounted for most of this association. Estimates for the post-birth PM2.5-infant death relationship were less precise. The results from our study add to a growing literature that provides evidence in favor of the potential harmful effects on human health of low levels of air pollution.

In utero exposure to threat of evictions and preterm birth: Evidence from the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate county-level associations between in utero exposure to threatened evictions and preterm birth in the United States. DATA SOURCES: Complete birth records were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics (2009-2016). Threatened evictions were measured at the county level using eviction case filing data obtained from The Eviction Lab (2008-2016). Additional economic and demographic data were obtained from the United States Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis using 7.3 million births from 1,633 counties. We defined threatened eviction exposures as the z-score of average case filings over the pregnancy and by trimester. Our primary outcome was an indicator for preterm birth (born < 37 completed weeks of gestation). Secondary outcomes included a continuous measure for gestational length, a continuous measure for birth weight, and an indicator for low birth weight (born < 2500 g). We estimated within-county associations controlling for individual- and time-varying county-level characteristics, state-of-residence-year-and-month-of-conception fixed effects, and a county-specific time trend. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION: We merged birth records with threatened eviction data at the county-month-year level using mother's county of residence at delivery and month-year of conception. We supplemented these data with information on county-level annual 18-and-over population, annual poverty rate, and monthly unemployment rate. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Increased levels of eviction case filings over a pregnancy were associated with an increased risk of prematurity and low birth weight. These associations appeared to be sensitive to exposure in the second and third trimesters. Associations with secondary outcomes and within various population subgroups were, in general, imprecisely estimated. CONCLUSIONS: Higher exposure to eviction case filings within counties, particularly in the latter stages of a pregnancy, was associated with an increased risk of adverse birth outcomes. Future research should identify the causal effect of threatened evictions on maternal and child health outcomes.

Association of Unexpected Newborn Deaths With Changes in Obstetric and Neonatal Process of Care.

Importance: The death of a healthy term infant may signal patient safety and quality issues. Various initiatives aim to encourage clinicians to learn from these events, but little evidence exists regarding how exposure to an unexpected newborn death may alter clinician practice. Objective: To examine the association between an unexpected newborn death and changes in obstetric and newborn procedures that may be used in response to potential fetal distress or newborn complications. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used difference-in-differences analysis of 2011 to 2017 US vital statistics data from 477 US counties experiencing an unexpected newborn death during the study period. All in-hospital live births in the 477 counties during the study period were included. Data were analyzed from September 2019 to September 2020. Exposures: The death of an infant aged 0 to 7 days following an unremarkable pregnancy owing to causes other than birth defects, accidents/assaults, or sudden infant death syndrome. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes included binary variables capturing intervention in labor/delivery (induction, augmentation, cesarean delivery, forceps/vacuum) and procedures to avert and mitigate newborn complications (assisted ventilation, surfactant replacement therapy, antibiotics for suspected sepsis, neonatal intensive care unit admission). Results: The main sample included 5.72 million births (2.54 million during preexposure time). Mean (SD) maternal age was 27.3 (5.8) years; 67% of mothers were White, and 12% were Black. Associations varied across the 4 estimated models. Following an unexpected newborn death, there was no significant increase in the probability of cesarean delivery in the full sample model (0.28 percentage points [pp]; 95% CI, -0.01 to 0.57 pp), but a significant increase in the other 3 models, with values ranging from 0.55 pp (95% CI, 0.21 to 0.88 pp) in the full sample model with matching to 0.66 pp (95% CI, 0.13 to 1.19 pp) in the 1-hospital county subsample with matching. There was a significant increase in the probability of newborn assisted ventilation in the full sample model with matching (0.46 pp; 95% CI, 0.08 to 0.83 pp), but no significant increase in the other 3 models, with estimates ranging from 0.33 pp (95% CI, -0.04 to 0.71 pp) to 0.69 pp (95% CI, -0.02 to 1.40 pp). An unexpected newborn death was not associated with a significant increase in antibiotic use in the full sample models (without matching: 0.19 pp; 95% CI, -0.00 to 0.39 pp; with matching: 0.22 pp; 95% CI: -0.02 to 0.46 pp), but was associated with a significant increase in both of the 1-hospital county subsample models (without matching: 0.38 pp; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.73 pp; with matching: 0.39 pp; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.77 pp). Conclusions and Relevance: In some study models, an unexpected newborn death was associated with statistically significant increases in subsequent use of procedures to avert and mitigate fetal distress and newborn complications, which could reflect increases in identifying and proactively addressing serious potential complications or increased clinician caution applied across all cases. Future research should address whether these changes affect patient outcomes.

The effect of antenatal counseling and intrauterine device insertion services on postpartum contraceptive use in Nepal: Results from a stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: There is high unmet need for family planning in the postpartum period in Nepal. The current study assessed the effects of a contraceptive counseling and postpartum intrauterine device (PPIUD) insertion intervention on use of contraception in the postpartum period. STUDY DESIGN: We utilized a cluster, stepped-wedge design to randomly assign two hospital clusters (compromised of six hospitals) to begin the intervention at time one or time two. From 2015 to 2017, women completed surveys after delivery but before discharge (n = 75,893), and then at one year and two years postpartum. We estimated the intent-to-treat effect of the intervention using weighted, linear probability models and the adherence-adjusted effect (antenatal counseling) using an instrumental variable approach. Outcomes included modern contraceptive use and method mix measured at one and two years postpartum in a sample of 19,298 women (year I follow-up sample) and a sample of 19,248 women (year II follow-up sample). We used inverse probability weights to adjust for incomplete follow-up and bootstrap methods to give correct causal inference with the small number of six clusters. RESULTS: The intervention increased use of modern contraceptives by 3.8 percentage points [95% CI: -0.1, 9.5] at one-year postpartum, but only 0.3 percentage points [95% CI: -3.7, 4.1] at two years. The intervention significantly increased the use of PPIUDs at one year and two years postpartum, but there was less use of sterilization. Only 42% of women were counseled during the intervention period. The adherence-adjusted effects (antenatal counseling) were four times larger than the intent-to-treat effects. CONCLUSIONS: Providing counseling during the antenatal period and PPIUD services in hospitals increased use of PPIUDs in the one- and two-year postpartum period and shifted the contraceptive method mix. IMPLICATIONS: In order for antenatal counseling to increase postpartum contraceptive use, counseling may need to be provided in a wider range of prenatal care settings and at multiple time points. Healthcare providers should be trained on contraceptive counseling and PPIUD insertion, with the goal of expanding the available method mix and meeting postpartum women's contraceptive needs.

Quality of clinical assessment and child mortality: a three-country cross-sectional study.

This analysis describes specific gaps in the quality of health care in Central Africa and assesses the association between quality of clinical care and mortality at age 2-59 months. Regionally representative facility and household surveys for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cameroon and Central African Republic were collected between 2012 and 2016. These data are novel in linking facilities with households in their catchment area. Compliance with diagnostic and danger sign protocols during sick-child visits was observed by trained assessors. We computed facility- and district-level compliance indicators for patients aged 2-59 months and used multivariate multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the association between clinical assessment quality and mortality at age 2-59 months in the catchment areas of the observed facilities. A total of 13 618 live births were analysed and 1818 sick-child visits were directly observed and used to rate 643 facilities. Eight percent of observed visits complied with 80% of basic diagnostic protocols, and 13% of visits fully adhered to select general danger sign protocols. A 10% greater compliance with diagnostic protocols was associated with a 14.1% (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 95% CI: 0.025-0.244) reduction in the odds of mortality at age 2-59 months; a 10% greater compliance with select general danger sign protocols was associated with a 15.3% (aOR 95% CI: 0.058-0.237) reduction in the same odds. The results of this article suggest that compliance with recommended clinical protocols remains poor in many settings and improvements in mortality at age 2-59 months could be possible if compliance were improved.

Comprehensive school-based health programs to improve child and adolescent health: Evidence from Zambia.

BACKGROUND: While school-aged children in low- and middle-income countries remain highly exposed to acute infections, programs targeting this age group remain limited in scale and scope. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of a new and comprehensive primary school-based health intervention program on student-reported morbidity and anthropometric outcomes in Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS: A prospective matched control study identified 12 classes in 7 schools for the intervention and 12 classes in 7 matched schools as controls. Teachers in intervention schools were trained to deliver health lessons and to refer sick students to care. In addition, vitamin A and deworming medication were biannually administered to intervention students. The primary study outcome was student-reported morbidity. Secondary outcomes were weight, height, health knowledge, and absenteeism. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were used to estimate program impact. RESULTS: 380 students ages 4-16 were enrolled in the study in 2015, and 97% were followed up at endline in 2016. The intervention decreased the adjusted odds of self-reported acute illnesses by 38% (95% CI: 0.48, 0.77) and the adjusted odds of stunting by 52% (95% CI: 0.26, 0.87). It also increased health knowledge by 0.53 standard deviations (95% CI: 0.24, 0.81). No impact was found on weight (adjusted mean difference ß = 0.17, 95% CI: - 1.11, 1.44) and student absenteeism (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.60, 1.33). CONCLUSION: The results presented in this paper suggest that comprehensive school-based health programs may offer a highly effective way to improve students' health knowledge as well as their health status. Given their low cost, a more general adoption and implementation of such programs seems recommendable. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03607084.