Predicting Intensive Care Delirium with Machine Learning: Model Development and External Validation.

BACKGROUND: Delirium poses significant risks to patients, but countermeasures can be taken to mitigate negative outcomes. Accurately forecasting delirium in intensive care unit (ICU) patients could guide proactive intervention. Our primary objective was to predict ICU delirium by applying machine learning to clinical and physiologic data routinely collected in electronic health records. METHODS: Two prediction models were trained and tested using a multicenter database (years of data collection 2014 to 2015), and externally validated on two single-center databases (2001 to 2012 and 2008 to 2019). The primary outcome variable was delirium defined as a positive Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU screen, or an Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist of 4 or greater. The first model, named "24-hour model," used data from the 24 h after ICU admission to predict delirium any time afterward. The second model designated "dynamic model," predicted the onset of delirium up to 12 h in advance. Model performance was compared with a widely cited reference model. RESULTS: For the 24-h model, delirium was identified in 2,536 of 18,305 (13.9%), 768 of 5,299 (14.5%), and 5,955 of 36,194 (11.9%) of patient stays, respectively, in the development sample and two validation samples. For the 12-h lead time dynamic model, delirium was identified in 3,791 of 22,234 (17.0%), 994 of 6,166 (16.1%), and 5,955 of 28,440 (20.9%) patient stays, respectively. Mean area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) (95% CI) for the first 24-h model was 0.785 (0.769 to 0.801), significantly higher than the modified reference model with AUC of 0.730 (0.704 to 0.757). The dynamic model had a mean AUC of 0.845 (0.831 to 0.859) when predicting delirium 12 h in advance. Calibration was similar in both models (mean Brier Score [95% CI] 0.102 [0.097 to 0.108] and 0.111 [0.106 to 0.116]). Model discrimination and calibration were maintained when tested on the validation datasets. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning models trained with routinely collected electronic health record data accurately predict ICU delirium, supporting dynamic time-sensitive forecasting.

Endotypes and the Path to Precision in Moderate and Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

Heterogeneity is recognized as a major barrier in efforts to improve the care and outcomes of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Even within the narrower stratum of moderate and severe TBI, current management approaches do not capture the complexity of this condition characterized by manifold clinical, anatomical, and pathophysiologic features. One approach to heterogeneity may be to resolve undifferentiated TBI populations into endotypes, subclasses that are distinguished by shared biological characteristics. The endotype paradigm has been explored in a range of medical domains, including psychiatry, oncology, immunology, and pulmonology. In intensive care, endotypes are being investigated for syndromes such as sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome. This review provides an overview of the endotype paradigm as well as some of its methods and use cases. A conceptual framework is proposed for endotype research in moderate and severe TBI, together with a scientific road map for endotype discovery and validation in this population.

Computational signatures for post-cardiac arrest trajectory prediction: Importance of early physiological time series.

BACKGROUND: There is an unmet need for timely and reliable prediction of post-cardiac arrest (CA) clinical trajectories. We hypothesized that physiological time series (PTS) data recorded on the first day of intensive care would contribute significantly to discrimination of outcomes at discharge. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Adult patients in the multicenter eICU database who were mechanically ventilated after resuscitation from out-of-hospital CA were included. Outcomes of interest were survival, neurological status based on Glasgow motor subscore (mGCS) and surrogate functional status based on discharge location (DL), at hospital discharge. Three machine learning predictive models were trained, one with features from the electronic health records (EHR), the second using features derived from PTS collected in the first 24 h after ICU admission (PTS24), and the third combining PTS24 and EHR. Model performances were compared, and the best performing model was externally validated in the MIMIC-III dataset. RESULTS: Data from 2216 admissions were included in the analysis. Discrimination of prediction models combining EHR and PTS24 features was higher than models using either EHR or PTS24 for prediction of survival (AUROC 0.83, 0.82 and 0.79 respectively), neurological outcome (0.87, 0.86 and 0.79 respectively), and DL (0.80, 0.78 and 0.76 respectively). External validation in MIMIC-III (n = 86) produced similar model performance. Feature analysis suggested prognostic significance of previously unknown EHR and PTS24 variables. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that physiological data recorded in the early phase after CA resuscitation contain signatures that are linked to post-CA outcome. Additionally, they attest to the effectiveness of ML for post-CA predictive modeling.

Decoding accelerometry for classification and prediction of critically ill patients with severe brain injury.

Our goal is to explore quantitative motor features in critically ill patients with severe brain injury (SBI). We hypothesized that computational decoding of these features would yield information on underlying neurological states and outcomes. Using wearable microsensors placed on all extremities, we recorded a median 24.1 (IQR: 22.8-25.1) hours of high-frequency accelerometry data per patient from a prospective cohort (n = 69) admitted to the ICU with SBI. Models were trained using time-, frequency-, and wavelet-domain features and levels of responsiveness and outcome as labels. The two primary tasks were detection of levels of responsiveness, assessed by motor sub-score of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCSm), and prediction of functional outcome at discharge, measured with the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE). Detection models achieved significant (AUC: 0.70 [95% CI: 0.53-0.85]) and consistent (observation windows: 12 min-9 h) discrimination of SBI patients capable of purposeful movement (GCSm > 4). Prediction models accurately discriminated patients of upper moderate disability or better (GOSE > 5) with 2-6 h of observation (AUC: 0.82 [95% CI: 0.75-0.90]). Results suggest that time series analysis of motor activity yields clinically relevant insights on underlying functional states and short-term outcomes in patients with SBI.