The landscape of etiological patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in Thailand.

Thailand is among countries with the highest global incidence and mortality rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA). While viral hepatitis and liver fluke infections have been associated with HCC and iCCA, respectively, other environmental risk factors, overall risk factor commonality and combinatorial roles, and effects on survival have not been systematically examined. We conducted a TIGER-LC consortium-based population study covering all high-incidence areas of both malignancies across Thailand: 837 HCC, 1474 iCCA, and 1112 controls (2011-2019) were comprehensively queried on lifelong environmental exposures, lifestyle, and medical history. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to evaluate risk factors and associated survival patterns. Our models identified shared risk factors between HCC and iCCA, such as viral hepatitis infection, liver fluke infection, and diabetes, including novel and shared associations of agricultural pesticide exposure (OR range of 1.50; 95% CI: 1.06-2.11 to 2.91; 95% CI: 1.82-4.63) along with vulnerable sources of drinking water. Most patients had multiple risk factors, magnifying their risk considerably. Patients with lower risk levels had better survival in both HCC (HR 0.78; 95% CI: 0.64-0.96) and iCCA (HR 0.84; 95% CI: 0.70-0.99). Risk factor co-exposures and their common associations with HCC and iCCA in Thailand emphasize the importance for future prevention and control measures, especially in its large agricultural sector. The observed mortality patterns suggest ways to stratify patients for anticipated survivorship and develop plans to support medical care of longer-term survivors, including behavioral changes to reduce exposures.

A latent functional approach for modeling the effects of multidimensional exposures on disease risk.

Understanding the relationships between exposure and disease incidence is an important problem in environmental epidemiology. Typically, a large number of these exposures are measured, and it is found either that a few exposures transmit risk or that each exposure transmits a small amount of risk, but, taken together, these may pose a substantial disease risk. Further, these exposure effects can be nonlinear. We develop a latent functional approach, which assumes that the individual effect of each exposure can be characterized as one of a series of unobserved functions, where the number of latent functions is less than or equal to the number of exposures. We propose Bayesian methodology to fit models with a large number of exposures and show that existing Bayesian group LASSO approaches are a special case of the proposed model. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is developed for carrying out Bayesian inference. The deviance information criterion is used to choose an appropriate number of nonlinear latent functions. We demonstrate the good properties of the approach using simulation studies. Further, we show that complex exposure relationships can be represented with only a few latent functional curves. The proposed methodology is illustrated with an analysis of the effect of cumulative pesticide exposure on cancer risk in a large cohort of farmers.

Uncovering circadian rhythms in metabolic longitudinal data: A Bayesian latent class modeling approach.

Researchers in biology and medicine have increasingly focused on characterizing circadian rhythms and their potential impact on disease. Understanding circadian variation in metabolomics, the study of chemical processes involving metabolites may provide insight into important aspects of biological mechanism. Of scientific importance is developing a statistical rigorous approach for characterizing different types of 24-hour patterns among high dimensional longitudinal metabolites. We develop a latent class approach to incorporate variation in 24-hour patterns across metabolites where profiles are modeled with finite mixtures of distinct shape-invariant circadian curves that themselves incorporate variation in amplitude and phase across metabolites. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is used to carry out Bayesian posterior computation. When the model was fit separately by individual to the data from a small group of participants, two distinct 24-hour rhythms were identified, with one being sinusoidal and the other being more complex with multiple peaks. Interestingly, the latent pattern associated with circadian variation (simple sinusoidal curve) had a similar phase across the three participants, while the more complex latent pattern reflecting diurnal variation differed across individual. The results suggested that this modeling framework can be used to separate 24-hour rhythms into an endogenous circadian and one or more exogenous diurnal patterns in describing human metabolism.

IFN-λ4 is associated with increased risk and earlier occurrence of several common infections in African children.

Genetic polymorphisms within the IFNL3/IFNL4 genomic region, which encodes type III interferons, have been strongly associated with clearance of hepatitis C virus. We hypothesized that type III interferons might be important for the immune response to other pathogens as well. In a cohort of 914 Malian children, we genotyped functional variants IFNL4-rs368234815, IFNL4-rs117648444, and IFNL3-rs4803217 and analyzed episodes of malaria, gastrointestinal, and respiratory infections recorded at 30,626 clinic visits from birth up to 5 years of age. Compared to children with the rs368234815-TT/TT genotype (IFN-λ4-Null), rs368234815-dG allele was most strongly associated with an earlier time-to-first episode of gastrointestinal infections (p = 0.003). The risk of experiencing an infection episode during the follow-up was also significantly increased with rs368234815-dG allele, with OR = 1.53, 95%CI (1.13-2.07), p = 0.005 for gastrointestinal infections and OR = 1.30, 95%CI (1.02-1.65), p = 0.033 for malaria. All the associations for the moderately linked rs4803217 (r2 = 0.78 in this set) were weaker and lost significance after adjusting for rs368234815. We also analyzed all outcomes in relation to IFN-λ4-P70S groups. Our results implicate IFN-λ4 and not IFN-λ3 as the primary functional cause of genetic associations with increased overall risk and younger age at first clinical episodes but not with recurrence or intensity of several common pediatric infections.

Bayesian network meta-regression hierarchical models using heavy-tailed multivariate random effects with covariate-dependent variances.

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is gaining popularity in evidence synthesis and network meta-regression allows us to incorporate potentially important covariates into network meta-analysis. In this article, we propose a Bayesian network meta-regression hierarchical model and assume a general multivariate t distribution for the random treatment effects. The multivariate t distribution is desired for heavy-tailed random effects and converges to the multivariate normal distribution when the degrees of freedom go to infinity. Moreover, in NMA, some treatments are compared only in a single study. To overcome such sparsity, we propose a log-linear regression model for the variances of the random effects and incorporate aggregate covariates into modeling the variance components. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution via the collapsed Gibbs technique. We further use the deviance information criterion and the logarithm of the pseudo-marginal likelihood for model comparison. A simulation study is conducted and a detailed analysis from our motivating case study is carried out to further demonstrate the proposed methodology.

Bayesian inference for network meta-regression using multivariate random effects with applications to cholesterol lowering drugs.

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) has been identified as a causative factor for atherosclerosis and related coronary heart disease, and as the main target for cholesterol- and lipid-lowering therapy. Statin drugs inhibit cholesterol synthesis in the liver and are typically the first line of therapy to lower elevated levels of LDL-C. On the other hand, a different drug, Ezetimibe, inhibits the absorption of cholesterol by the small intestine and provides a different mechanism of action. Many clinical trials have been carried out on safety and efficacy evaluation of cholesterol lowering drugs. To synthesize the results from different clinical trials, we examine treatment level (aggregate) network meta-data from 29 double-blind, randomized, active, or placebo-controlled statins +/$-$ Ezetimibe clinical trials on adult treatment-naïve patients with primary hypercholesterolemia. In this article, we propose a new approach to carry out Bayesian inference for arm-based network meta-regression. Specifically, we develop a new strategy of grouping the variances of random effects, in which we first formulate possible sets of the groups of the treatments based on their clinical mechanisms of action and then use Bayesian model comparison criteria to select the best set of groups. The proposed approach is especially useful when some treatment arms are involved in only a single trial. In addition, a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is developed to carry out the posterior computations. In particular, the correlation matrix is generated from its full conditional distribution via partial correlations. The proposed methodology is further applied to analyze the network meta-data from 29 trials with 11 treatment arms.

A contemporary amniotic fluid volume chart for the United States: The NICHD Fetal Growth Studies-Singletons.

BACKGROUND: Amniotic fluid is essential to normal fetal development and is estimated clinically with ultrasound scanning to identify pregnancies that are at risk for poor perinatal outcome. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to develop a United States standard for amniotic fluid volume that is estimated by the amniotic fluid index and single deepest pocket. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a planned secondary analysis of a multicenter observational study of 2334 low-risk women with normal singleton gestations from 1 of 4 self-reported racial/ethnic groups. Eligible women had confirmed first-trimester dating criteria with health status, lifestyles, and medical and obstetric histories that were associated with normal fetal growth. Consenting women underwent serial (up to 5) sonographic evaluations of amniotic fluid between 15 and 40 weeks of gestation after being assigned randomly to 1 of 4 gestational age observation schedules. Twelve United States perinatal centers participated, and all sonograms were performed by credentialed sonographers who used identical, high-resolution equipment; caregivers were unaware of results but were notified for oligohydramnios. Women (n=597) who were subsequently found to have clinically significant antepartum complications were excluded. Racial/ethnic-specific nomograms for amniotic fluid index and single deepest pocket across gestation were developed with the use of linear mixed models with cubic splines; racial/ethnic differences were evaluated both with global and between-group tests. Median, 3rd, 5th, 10th, 90th, 95th and 97th percentile values were also estimated. We further considered the possible confounding effects of selected maternal characteristics and the estimated fetal weight at each sonogram. RESULTS: A total of 1719 pregnant women met inclusion criteria and had available data. These included 480 non-Hispanic white women, 418 non-Hispanic black women, 485 Hispanic women, and 336 Asian women. Both the amniotic fluid index and the single deepest pocket varied across gestation with maximal values at 26 and 33 weeks of gestation, respectively. Statistically significant differences were observed by maternal race/ethnicity. The between-group differences that were observed at 17-22 and 35-40 weeks of gestation remained statistically significant after adjustment for maternal characteristics and estimated fetal weight. These between-group racial/ethnic differences were most prominent after 35 weeks of gestation and at the extremes of dispersion (3rd and 97th percentiles). All 3rd and 97th percentile amniotic fluid index values were within the range of commonly used cutoffs to define oligohydramnios (≤5 cm) and polyhydramnios (≥25 cm). However, the 3rd percentile values ranged between 5.9 cm at 40 weeks of gestation and 10.1 cm at 25-27 weeks of gestation; the 97th percentile values ranged between 24.8 cm at 38 weeks of gestation and 15.7 cm at 15 weeks of gestation. CONCLUSION: Sonographic amniotic fluid volume estimates vary by racial/ethnic group, but the absolute differences appear to be small and may not be clinically significant. Selected maternal characteristics and estimated fetal weight did not affect the racial/ethnic differences. Between-group differences are maximal after 35 weeks of gestation and at the extremes of the upper and lower dispersion estimates. Given the observed variability in extreme (3rd and 97th percentile) dispersion values over the gestation, use of single cutoffs to define out-of-range measurements may not be appropriate clinically. These data might form a contemporary United States standard for amniotic fluid estimation that uses the amniotic fluid index and the single deepest pocket.

Fetal growth patterns in pregnancy-associated hypertensive disorders: NICHD Fetal Growth Studies.

BACKGROUND: Fetal growth patterns in pregnancy-associated hypertensive disorders is poorly understood because prospective longitudinal data are lacking. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to compare longitudinal fetal growth trajectories between normotensive women and those with pregnancy-associated hypertensive disorders. STUDY DESIGN: This is a study based on data from a prospective longitudinal cohort study of fetal growth performed at 12 US sites (2009-2013). Project gestational age was confirmed by ultrasound between 8 weeks 0 days and 13 weels 6 days, and up to 6 ultrasounds were performed across gestation. Hypertensive disorders were diagnosed based on 2002 American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists guidelines and grouped hierarchically as severe preeclampsia (including eclampsia or HELLP [hemolysis, elevated liver enzymes, and low platelet count] syndrome), mild preeclampsia, severe gestational hypertension, mild gestational hypertension, or unspecified hypertension. Women without any hypertensive disorder constituted the normotensive group. Growth curves for estimated fetal weight and individual biometric parameters including biparietal diameter, head circumference, abdominal circumference, and femur and humerus length were calculated for each group using linear mixed models with cubic splines. Global and weekly pairwise comparisons were performed between women with a hypertensive disorder compared with normotensive women to analyze differences while adjusting for confounding variables. Delivery gestational age and birthweights were compared among groups. RESULTS: Of 2462 women analyzed, 2296 (93.3%) were normotensive, 63 (2.6%) had mild gestational hypertension, 54 (2.2%) mild preeclampsia, 32 (1.3%) severe preeclampsia, and 17 (0.7%) unspecified hypertension. Compared with normotensive women, those with severe preeclampsia had estimated fetal weights that were reduced between 22 and 38 weeks (all weekly pairwise values of P < .008). Women with severe preeclampsia compared with those without hypertension also had significantly smaller fetal abdominal circumference between 23-31 and 33-37 weeks' gestation (weekly pairwise values of P < .04). Scattered weekly growth differences were noted on other biometric parameters between these 2 groups. The consistent differences in estimated fetal weight and abdominal circumference were not observed between women with other hypertensive disorders and those who were normotensive. Women with severe preeclampsia delivered significantly earlier (mean gestational age 35.9 ± 3.2 weeks) than the other groups (global P < .0001). Birthweights in the severe preeclampsia group were also significantly lower (mean -949.5 g [95% confidence interval, -1117.7 to -781.2 g]; P < .0001) than in the normotensive group. CONCLUSION: Among women with pregnancy-associated hypertensive disorders, only those destined to develop severe preeclampsia demonstrated a significant and consistent difference in fetal growth (ie, smaller estimated fetal weight and abdominal circumference) when compared with normotensive women.

A correlated Bayesian rank likelihood approach to multiple ROC curves for endometriosis.

In analysis of diagnostic data with multiple tests, it is often the case that these tests are correlated. Modeling the correlation explicitly not only produces valid inference results but also enables borrowing of information. Motivated by the Physician Reliability Study (PRS) that investigated the diagnostic performance of physicians in diagnosing endometriosis, we construct a correlated modeling framework to estimate ROC curves and the associated area under the curves. This correlated approach is quite appealing for the PRS data set that suffers from the problem of small sample sizes, as it enables information borrowing between physician groups and sessions. Given that the test scores appear to be non-normal even after logarithm transformation, we use the ranks of the data to conduct likelihood estimation and inference. We use the deviance information criterion to select competing models and conduct simulation studies to assess model performances. In application to the PRS data set, we found that the physicians are not significantly different in their diagnostic performance between groups; however, they are different between the sessions. This suggests that clinical information may play a more important role in physicians' diagnostic performance than their experiences. Our empirical evidence also demonstrates that when using both woman- and physician-specific random effects, the model parameter estimates are much smoother.

Fetal growth velocity: the NICHD fetal growth studies.

BACKGROUND: Accurately identifying pregnancies with accelerated or diminished fetal growth is challenging and generally based on cross-sectional percentile estimates of fetal weight. Longitudinal growth velocity might improve identification of abnormally grown fetuses. OBJECTIVE: We sought to complement fetal size standards with fetal growth velocity, develop a model to compute fetal growth velocity percentiles for any given set of gestational week intervals, and determine association between fetal growth velocity and birthweight. STUDY DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study with data collected at 12 US sites (2009 through 2013) from 1733 nonobese, low-risk pregnancies included in the singleton standard. Following a standardized sonogram at 10w0d-13w6d, each woman was randomized to 1 of 4 follow-up visit schedules with 5 additional study sonograms (targeted ranges: 16-22, 24-29, 30-33, 34-37, and 38-41 weeks). Study visits could occur ± 1 week from the targeted GA. Ultrasound biometric measurements included biparietal diameter, head circumference, abdominal circumference, and femur length, and estimated fetal weight was calculated. We used linear mixed models with cubic splines for the fixed effects and random effects to flexibly model ultrasound trajectories. We computed velocity percentiles in 2 ways: (1) difference between 2 consecutive weekly measurements (ie, weekly velocity), and (2) difference between any 2 ultrasounds at a clinically reasonable difference between 2 gestational ages (ie, velocity calculator). We compared correlation between fetal growth velocity percentiles and estimated fetal weight percentiles at 4-week intervals, with 32 (±1) weeks' gestation for illustration. Growth velocity was computed as estimated fetal growth rate (g/wk) between ultrasound at that gestational age and from prior visit [ie, for 28-32 weeks' gestational age: velocity = (estimated fetal weight 32-28)/(gestational age 32-28)]. We examined differences in birthweight by whether or not estimated fetal weight and estimated fetal weight velocity were <5th or ≥5th percentiles using χ2. RESULTS: Fetal growth velocity was nonmonotonic, with acceleration early in pregnancy, peaking at 13, 14, 15, and 16 weeks for biparietal diameter, head circumference, femur length, and abdominal circumference, respectively. Biparietal diameter, head circumference, and abdominal circumference had a second acceleration at 19-22, 19-21, and 27-31 weeks, respectively. Estimated fetal weight velocity peaked around 35 weeks. Fetal growth velocity varied slightly by race/ethnicity although comparisons reflected differences for parameters at various gestational ages. Estimated fetal weight velocity percentiles were not highly correlated with fetal size percentiles (Pearson r = 0.40-0.41, P < .001), suggesting that these measurements reflect different aspects of fetal growth and velocity may add additional information to a single measure of estimated fetal weight. At 32 (SD ± 1) weeks, if both estimated fetal weight velocity and size were <5th percentile, mean birthweight was 2550 g; however, even when size remained <5th percentile but velocity was ≥5th percentile, birthweight increased to 2867 g, reflecting the important contribution of higher growth velocities. For estimated fetal weight ≥5th percentile, but growth velocity <5th, birthweight was smaller (3208 vs 3357 g, respectively, P < .001). CONCLUSION: We provide fetal growth velocity data to complement our previous work on fetal growth size standards, and have developed a calculator to compute fetal growth velocity. Preliminary findings suggest that growth velocity adds additional information over knowing fetal size alone.

Maternal and paternal serum concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and the secondary sex ratio: A population-based preconception cohort study.

Recent declines in the secondary sex ratio (SSR), defined as the ratio of males to females at birth, in some industrialized countries may be attributed to exposure to environmental toxicants such as persistent organic pollutants (POPs). This study aimed to evaluate the association of couples' preconception exposure to POPs with the SSR. The study cohort comprised 235 couples who were enrolled in the Longitudinal Investigation of Fertility and the Environment (LIFE) Study between 2005 and 2009 prior to conception and prospectively followed through delivery of a singleton birth. Upon enrollment, couples' serum concentrations (ng/g) were measured for 9 organochlorine pesticides, 1 polybrominated biphenyl, 10 polybrominated diphenyl ethers, and 36 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Birth outcome data including infant sex were collected upon delivery. Modified Poisson regression models were used to estimate the relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of a male birth for each chemical. Of the 56 POPs examined, maternal PCB 128 and paternal hexachlorobenzene were significantly associated with a female excess (RRs, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.60-0.94] and 0.81 [95% CI, 0.68-0.97] per 1SD increase in log-transformed serum chemical concentrations, respectively), whereas maternal mirex and paternal PCB 128 and p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene were significantly associated with a male excess (RR range, 1.10-1.22 per 1SD increase in log-transformed serum chemical concentrations). After adjusting for multiple comparisons, only maternal mirex remained significantly associated with the SSR. This exploratory study on multiple classes of POPs demonstrated no conclusive evidence on the association between parental preconception exposure to POPs and the SSR.

Combined Influence of Gestational Weight Gain and Estimated Fetal Weight on Risk Assessment for Small- or Large-for-Gestational-Age Birth Weight: A Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the frequency with which gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight do not track across gestation and to assess the risk of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) birth weight as a function of tracking. METHODS: This study included a pregnancy cohort (2009-2013) of 2438 women from 4 racial/ethnic groups in the United States. We calculated race- and trimester-specific gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight z scores. The prevalence of how often gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight did not or did directly track was examined by grouping z scores into measure-specific categories (<-1 SD, -1 to + 1 SD, and >1 SD) and then examining 2-measure combinations. Trimester-specific relative risks for SGA and LGA births were estimated with a gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight z score interaction. We estimated coefficients for selected gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight values (-1 SD, 0 SD, and +1 SD) compared with the referent of 0 SD for both measures. Small and large for gestational age were calculated as birth weight below the 10th and at or above the 90th percentiles, respectively. RESULTS: Gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight were within 1 SD 55.5%, 51.5%, and 48.2% of the time in the first, second, and third trimesters, respectively. There was no significant interaction between gestational weight gain and estimated fetal weight on the risk of SGA in the first and second trimesters (interaction term P = .48; P = .79). In the third trimester, there was a significant interaction (P = .002), resulting in a 71% (95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.02) increased risk of SGA when estimated fetal weight was low and gestational weight gain was high. These relationships were similar for the risk of LGA. CONCLUSIONS: Deviations in either measure, even in the presence of average gestational weight gain or estimated fetal weight, still suggest an increased risk of SGA and LGA.

Characterization of Thermal and Mechanical Indices from Serial Ultrasound Exams and Associations with Neonatal Anthropometry: The NICHD Fetal Growth Studies.

OBJECTIVE: This article aims to determine if the number of maternal ultrasound scans where the highest thermal (TI) or mechanical (MI) indices recorded during obstetrical ultrasound exceed 1.0 were associated with neonatal anthropometric measurements. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective cohort of 2,334 nonobese low-risk pregnant women from 12 U.S. clinical sites underwent a total of six ultrasound scans, for which the highest TI and MI values were recorded. Neonatal anthropometric measurements were obtained within 12 to 24 hours of delivery. Multiple linear regression models adjusted for maternal race/ethnicity, body mass index, weight gain, and gestational age were used to examine associations between the number of maternal ultrasounds during gestation with a TI or MI exceeding 1.0 and the mean change in neonatal anthropometry. RESULTS: Ultrasounds with TI or MI >1.0 were not associated with birth weight, neonatal length, nor head, chest, and abdominal circumferences. TI >1.0 was negatively associated with neonatal mid-upper arm and mid-upper thigh circumferences. MI >1.0 was negatively associated with neonatal skinfold measurements of the anterior thigh and triceps, and neonatal circumferences of the mid-upper thigh and umbilicus. CONCLUSION: Prenatal ultrasound examinations in which TI or MI intermittently exceeded 1.0 did not identify a pattern of alterations of birth size.

Patterns of gestational weight gain and birthweight outcomes in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Fetal Growth Studies-Singletons: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Inadequate or excessive total gestational weight gain is associated with increased risks of small- and large-for-gestational-age births, respectively, but evidence is sparse regarding overall and trimester-specific patterns of gestational weight gain in relation to these risks. Characterizing the interrelationship between patterns of gestational weight gain across trimesters can reveal whether the trajectory of gestational weight gain in the first trimester sets the path for gestational weight gain in subsequent trimesters, thereby serving as an early marker for at-risk pregnancies. OBJECTIVE: We sought to describe overall trajectories of gestational weight gain across gestation and assess the risk of adverse birthweight outcomes associated with the overall trajectory and whether the timing of gestational weight gain (first vs second/third trimester) is differentially associated with adverse outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort of 2802 singleton pregnancies from 12 US prenatal centers (2009 through 2013). Small and large for gestational age were calculated using sex-specific birthweight references <5th, <10th, or ≥90th percentiles, respectively. At each of the research visits, women's weight was measured following a standardized anthropometric protocol. Maternal weight at antenatal clinical visits was also abstracted from the prenatal records. Semiparametric, group-based, latent class, trajectory models estimated overall gestational weight gain and separate first- and second-/third-trimester trajectories to assess tracking. Robust Poisson regression was used to estimate the relative risk of small- and large-for-gestational-age outcomes by the probability of trajectory membership. We tested whether relationships were modified by prepregnancy body mass index. RESULTS: There were 2779 women with a mean of 15 (SD 5) weights measured across gestation. Four distinct gestational weight gain trajectories were identified based on the lowest Bayesian information criterion value, classifying 10.0%, 41.8%, 39.2%, and 9.0% of the population from lowest to highest weight gain trajectories, with an inflection at 14 weeks. The average rate in each trajectory group from lowest to highest for 0-<14 weeks was -0.20, 0.04, 0.21, and 0.52 kg/wk and for 14-39 weeks was 0.29, 0.48, 0.63, and 0.79 kg/wk, respectively; the second lowest gaining trajectory resembled the Institute of Medicine recommendations and was designated as the reference with the other trajectories classified as low, moderate-high, or high. Accuracy of assignment was assessed and found to be high (median posterior probability 0.99, interquartile range 0.99-1.00). Compared with the referent trajectory, a low overall trajectory, but not other trajectories, was associated with a 1.55-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.25) and 1.58-fold (95% confidence interval, 0.88-2.82) increased risk of small-for-gestational-age <10th and <5th, respectively, while a moderate-high and high trajectory were associated with a 1.78-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.41) and 2.45-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.66-3.61) increased risk of large for gestational age, respectively. In a separate analysis investigating whether early (<14 weeks) gestational weight gain tracked with later (≥14 weeks) gestational weight gain, only 49% (n = 127) of women in the low first-trimester trajectory group continued as low in the second/third trimester, and had a 1.59-fold increased risk of small for gestational age; for the other 51% (n = 129) of women without a subsequently low second-/third-trimester gestational weight gain trajectory, there was no increased risk of small for gestational age (relative risk, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.47-1.38). Prepregnancy body mass index did not modify the association between gestational weight gain trajectory and small for gestational age (P = 0.52) or large for gestational age (P = .69). CONCLUSION: Our findings are reassuring for women who experience weight loss or excessive weight gain in the first trimester; however, the risk of small or large for gestational age is significantly increased if women gain weight below or above the reference trajectory in the second/third trimester.

Maternal stress and neonatal anthropometry: the NICHD Fetal Growth Studies.

BACKGROUND: The effect of maternal mood disorders on neonatal measurements is not well-defined. The Fetal Growth Studies-Singletons provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the relationship between perceived maternal stress and neonatal growth measurements. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine whether perceived maternal stress during pregnancy is associated with anthropometric measurements in the neonate. STUDY DESIGN: This analysis was based on a prospective, multicenter longitudinal study of fetal growth. Women 18-40 years old with a body mass index of 19.0-29.9 kg/m2 were screened at 8+0 to 13+6 weeks gestation for low-risk status associated with optimal fetal growth (eg, healthy, nonsmoking) and underwent serial sonographic examination at 6 study visits throughout gestation. At each study visit, women completed the Cohen's Perceived Stress Survey, which could have a score that ranges from 0-40. We used a latent class trajectory model to identify distinct groupings (ie, classes) of the Perceived Stress Survey trajectories over pregnancy. Trend analysis was used to determine whether neonatal measurements including birthweight, length, head circumference, and abdominal circumference differed by Perceived Stress Survey class and whether this relationship was modified by maternal race/ethnicity, after adjustment for gestational age at delivery, maternal height, age, and parity. RESULTS: Of the 2334 women enrolled in the study, 1948 women had complete neonatal anthropometry and were included in the analysis. Latent class analysis identified 3 Perceived Stress Survey trajectory classes, with mean Perceived Stress Survey scores of 2.82 (low), 7.95 (medium), and 14.80 (high). Neonatal anthropometric measures of birthweight, length, head circumference and abdominal circumference were similar (P=.78, =.10, =.18, and =.40 respectively), regardless of the participants' Perceived Stress Survey class. There was no effect modification by maternal race/ethnicity. CONCLUSION: Neonatal measurements did not differ by levels of perceived stress among low-risk pregnant women.

Maternal Depressive Symptoms, Perceived Stress, and Fetal Growth.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether longitudinal fetal growth is altered among pregnant women reporting greater perceived stress or more symptoms of depression. METHODS: This analysis was based on a multicenter longitudinal study of fetal growth. Women were screened at gestational ages of 8 weeks to 13 weeks 6 days for low-risk status and underwent serial sonographic examinations. At each study visit during pregnancy, women were asked to complete the Cohen Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) and Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Survey (EPDS). Growth curves for estimated fetal weight and individual biometric parameters were created by using linear mixed models with cubic splines and compared on the basis of whether women scored 15 or higher on the PSS or 10 or higher on the EPDS either at the start of or at any time during pregnancy. RESULTS: Of the 2334 women enrolled in the study, 2088 (89%) and 2108 (90%) completed the PSS and EPDS, respectively, at least once in all trimesters. The longitudinal growth curves of estimated fetal weight as well as all individual biometric parameters were similar (P > .05) regardless of whether the participants reported PSS of 15 or higher or EPDS of 10 or higher in the first trimester or whether these scores persisted throughout the pregnancy. Similarly, effect modification by race/ethnicity was not statistically significant for the biometric parameters under study (P > .05 for all race/ethnicity interactions). CONCLUSIONS: More depressive symptoms and greater perceived stress, as quantified by the EPDS and the PSS, respectively, are not associated with alterations in fetal growth throughout gestation.

Dichorionic twin trajectories: the NICHD Fetal Growth Studies.

BACKGROUND: Systematic evaluation and estimation of growth trajectories in twins require ultrasound measurements across gestation that are performed in controlled clinical settings. Currently, there are few such data for contemporary populations. There is also controversy about whether twin fetal growth should be evaluated with the use of the same benchmarks as singleton growth. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to define the trajectory of fetal growth in dichorionic twins empirically using longitudinal 2-dimensional ultrasonography and to compare the fetal growth trajectories for dichorionic twins with those based on a growth standard that was developed by our group for singletons. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective cohort of 171 women with twin gestations was recruited from 8 US sites from 2012-2013. After an initial sonogram at 11 weeks 0 days-13 weeks 6 days of gestation during which dichorionicity was confirmed, women were assigned randomly to 1 of 2 serial ultrasonography schedules. Growth curves and percentiles were estimated with the use of linear mixed models with cubic splines. Percentiles were compared statistically at each gestational week between the twins and 1731 singletons, after adjustment for maternal age, race/ethnicity, height, weight, parity, employment, marital status, insurance, income, education, and infant sex. Linear mixed models were used to test for overall differences between the twin and singleton trajectories with the use of likelihood ratio tests of interaction terms between spline mean structure terms and twin-singleton indicator variables. Singleton standards were weighted to correspond to the distribution of maternal race in twins. For those ultrasound measurements in which there were significant global tests for differences between twins and singletons, we tested for week-specific differences using Wald tests that were computed at each gestational age. In a separate analysis, we evaluated the degree of reclassification in small for gestational age, which was defined as <10th percentile that would be introduced if fetal growth estimation for twins was based on an unweighted singleton standard. RESULTS: Women underwent a median of 5 ultrasound scans. The 50th percentile abdominal circumference and estimated fetal weight trajectories of twin fetuses diverged significantly beginning at 32 weeks of gestation; biparietal diameter in twins was smaller from 34-36 weeks of gestation. There were no differences in head circumference or femur length. The mean head circumference/abdominal circumference ratio was progressively larger for twins compared with singletons beginning at 33 weeks of gestation, which indicated a comparatively asymmetric growth pattern. At 35 weeks of gestation, the average gestational age at delivery for twins, the estimated fetal weights for the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles were 1960, 2376, and 2879 g for dichorionic twins, respectively, and 2180, 2567, and 3022 g for the singletons, respectively. At 32 weeks of gestation, the initial week when the mean estimated fetal weight for twins was smaller than that of singletons, 34% of twins would be classified as small for gestational age with the use of a singleton, non-Hispanic white standard. By 35 weeks of gestation, 38% of twins would be classified as small for gestational age. CONCLUSION: The comparatively asymmetric growth pattern in twin gestations, initially evident at 32 weeks of gestation, is consistent with the concept that the intrauterine environment becomes constrained in its ability to sustain growth in twin fetuses. Near term, nearly 40% of twins would be classified as small for gestational age based on a singleton growth standard.

A class of joint models for multivariate longitudinal measurements and a binary event.

Predicting binary events such as newborns with large birthweight is important for obstetricians in their attempt to reduce both maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Such predictions have been a challenge in obstetric practice, where longitudinal ultrasound measurements taken at multiple gestational times during pregnancy may be useful for predicting various poor pregnancy outcomes. The focus of this article is on developing a flexible class of joint models for the multivariate longitudinal ultrasound measurements that can be used for predicting a binary event at birth. A skewed multivariate random effects model is proposed for the ultrasound measurements, and the skewed generalized t-link is assumed for the link function relating the binary event and the underlying longitudinal processes. We consider a shared random effect to link the two processes together. Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is used to carry out Bayesian posterior computation. Several variations of the proposed model are considered and compared via the deviance information criterion, the logarithm of pseudomarginal likelihood, and with a training-test set prediction paradigm. The proposed methodology is illustrated with data from the NICHD Successive Small-for-Gestational-Age Births study, a large prospective fetal growth cohort conducted in Norway and Sweden.