Information theoretic evaluation of satellite soil moisture retrievals.

Microwave radiometry has a long legacy of providing estimates of remotely sensed near surface soil moisture measurements over continental and global scales. A consistent assessment of the errors and uncertainties associated with these retrievals is important for their effective utilization in modeling, data assimilation and end-use application environments. This article presents an evaluation of soil moisture retrieval products from AMSR-E, ASCAT, SMOS, AMSR2 and SMAP instruments using information theory-based metrics. These metrics rely on time series analysis of soil moisture retrievals for estimating the measurement error, level of randomness (entropy) and regularity (complexity) of the data. The results of the study indicate that the measurement errors in the remote sensing retrievals are significantly larger than that of the ground soil moisture measurements. The SMAP retrievals, on the other hand, were found to have reduced errors (comparable to those of in-situ datasets), particularly over areas with moderate vegetation. The SMAP retrievals also demonstrate high information content relative to other retrieval products, with higher levels of complexity and reduced entropy. Finally, a joint evaluation of the entropy and complexity of remotely sensed soil moisture products indicates that the information content of the AMSR-E, ASCAT, SMOS and AMSR2 retrievals is low, whereas SMAP retrievals show better performance. The use of information theoretic assessments is effective in quantifying the required levels of improvements needed in the remote sensing soil moisture retrievals to enhance their utility and information content.

Calibration to improve forward model simulation of microwave emissivity at GPM frequencies over the U.S. Southern Great Plains.

Better estimation of land surface microwave emissivity promises to improve over-land precipitation retrievals in the GPM era. Forward models of land microwave emissivity are available but have suffered from poor parameter specification and limited testing. Here, forward models are calibrated and the accompanying change in predictive power is evaluated. With inputs (e.g., soil moisture) from the Noah land surface model and applying MODIS LAI data, two microwave emissivity models are tested, the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) and Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM). The calibration is conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) parameter estimation subsystem using AMSR-E based emissivity retrievals for the calibration dataset. The extent of agreement between the modeled and retrieved estimates is evaluated using the AMSR-E retrievals for a separate 7-year validation period. Results indicate that calibration can significantly improve the agreement, simulating emissivity with an across-channel average root-mean-square-difference (RMSD) of about 0.013, or about 20% lower than if relying on daily estimates based on climatology. The results also indicate that calibration of the microwave emissivity model alone, as was done in prior studies, results in as much as 12% higher across-channel average RMSD, as compared to joint calibration of the land surface and microwave emissivity models. It remains as future work to assess the extent to which the improvements in emissivity estimation translate into improvements in precipitation retrieval accuracy.

Droughts impede water balance recovery from fires in the Western United States.

A steady rise in fires in the Western United States, coincident with intensifying droughts, imparts substantial modifications to the underlying vegetation, hydrology and overall ecosystem. Drought can compound the ecosystem disturbance caused by fire, although how these compound effects on hydrologic and ecosystem recovery vary among ecosystems is poorly understood. Here we use remote sensing-derived high-resolution evapotranspiration (ET) estimates from before and after 1,514 fires to show that ecoregions dominated by grasslands and shrublands are more susceptible to drought, which amplifies fire-induced ET decline and, subsequently, shifts water flux partitioning. In contrast, severely burned forests recover from fire slowly or incompletely, but are less sensitive to dry extremes. We conclude that moisture limitation caused by droughts influences the dynamics of water balance recovery in post-fire years. This finding explains why moderate to extreme droughts aggravate impacts on the water balance in non-forested vegetation, while moisture accessed by deeper roots in forests helps meet evaporative demands unless severe burns disrupt internal tree structure and deplete fuel load availability. Our results highlight the dominant control of drought on altering the resilience of vegetation to fires, with critical implications for terrestrial ecosystem stability in the face of anthropogenic climate change in the West.

Interconnected hydrologic extreme drivers and impacts depicted by remote sensing data assimilation.

Hydrologic extremes often involve a complex interplay of several processes. For example, flood events can have a cascade of impacts, such as saturated soils and suppressed vegetation growth. Accurate representation of such interconnected processes while accounting for associated triggering factors and subsequent impacts of flood events is difficult to achieve with conceptual hydrological models alone. In this study, we use the 2019 flood in the Northern Mississippi and Missouri Basins, which caused a series of hydrologic disturbances, as an example of such a flood event. This event began with above-average precipitation combined with anomalously high snowmelt in spring 2019. This series of anomalies resulted in above normal soil moisture that prevented crops from being planted over much of the corn belt region. In the present study, we demonstrate that incorporating remote sensing information within a hydrologic modeling system adds substantial value in representing the processes that lead to the 2019 flood event and the resulting agricultural disturbances. This remote sensing data infusion improves the accuracy of soil moisture and snowmelt estimates by up to 16% and 24%, respectively, and it also improves the representation of vegetation anomalies relative to the reference crop fraction anomalies.

Irrigation and warming drive the decreases in surface albedo over High Mountain Asia.

Human and climate induced land surface changes resulting from irrigation, snow cover decreases, and greening impact the surface albedo over High Mountain Asia (HMA). Here we use a partial information decomposition approach and remote sensing data to quantify the effects of the changes in leaf area index, soil moisture, and snow cover on the surface albedo in HMA, home to over a billion people, from 2003 to 2020. The study establishes strong evidence of anthropogenic agricultural water use over irrigated lands (e.g., Ganges-Brahmaputra) which causes the highest surface albedo decreases (≤ 1%/year). Greening and decreased snow cover from warming also drive changes in visible and near-infrared surface albedo in different areas of HMA. The significant role of irrigation and greening in influencing albedo suggests the potential of a positive feedback cycle where albedo decreases lead to increased evaporative demand and increased stress on water resources.

Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index Enhances the Estimation of Anthropogenic Irrigation Water Use.

Representation of irrigation in Earth System Models has advanced over the past decade, yet large uncertainties persist in the effective simulation of irrigation practices, particularly over locations where the on-ground practices and climate impacts are less reliably known. Here we investigate the utility of assimilating remotely sensed vegetation data for improving irrigation water use and associated fluxes within a land surface model. We show that assimilating optical sensor-based leaf area index estimates significantly improves the simulation of irrigation water use when compared to the USGS ground reports. For heavily irrigated areas, assimilation improves the evaporative fluxes and gross primary production (GPP) simulations, with the median correlation increasing by 0.1-1.1 and 0.3-0.6, respectively, as compared to the reference datasets. Further, bias improvements in the range of 14-35 mm mo-1 and 10-82 g m-2 mo-1 are obtained in evaporative fluxes and GPP as a result of incorporating vegetation constraints, respectively. These results demonstrate that the use of remotely sensed vegetation data is an effective, observation-informed, globally applicable approach for simulating irrigation and characterizing its impacts on water and carbon states.

Watershed Modeling with Remotely Sensed Big Data: MODIS Leaf Area Index Improves Hydrology and Water Quality Predictions.

Traditional watershed modeling often overlooks the role of vegetation dynamics. There is also little quantitative evidence to suggest that increased physical realism of vegetation dynamics in process-based models improves hydrology and water quality predictions simultaneously. In this study, we applied a modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantify the extent of improvements that the assimilation of remotely sensed Leaf Area Index (LAI) would convey to streamflow, soil moisture, and nitrate load simulations across a 16,860 km2 agricultural watershed in the midwestern United States. We modified the SWAT source code to automatically override the model's built-in semiempirical LAI with spatially distributed and temporally continuous estimates from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Compared to a "basic" traditional model with limited spatial information, our LAI assimilation model (i) significantly improved daily streamflow simulations during medium-to-low flow conditions, (ii) provided realistic spatial distributions of growing season soil moisture, and (iii) substantially reproduced the long-term observed variability of daily nitrate loads. Further analysis revealed that the overestimation or underestimation of LAI imparted a proportional cascading effect on how the model partitions hydrologic fluxes and nutrient pools. As such, assimilation of MODIS LAI data corrected the model's LAI overestimation tendency, which led to a proportionally increased rootzone soil moisture and decreased plant nitrogen uptake. With these new findings, our study fills the existing knowledge gap regarding vegetation dynamics in watershed modeling and confirms that assimilation of MODIS LAI data in watershed models can effectively improve both hydrology and water quality predictions.

Assimilation of Satellite-Based Snow Cover and Freeze/Thaw Observations Over High Mountain Asia.

Toward qualifying hydrologic changes in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, this study explores the use of a hyper-resolution (1 km) land data assimilation (DA) framework developed within the NASA Land Information System using the Noah Multi-parameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP) forced by the meteorological boundary conditions from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 data. Two different sets of DA experiments are conducted: (1) the assimilation of a satellite-derived snow cover map (MOD10A1) and (2) the assimilation of the NASA MEaSUREs landscape freeze/thaw product from 2007 to 2008. The performance of the snow cover assimilation is evaluated via comparisons with available remote sensing-based snow water equivalent product and ground-based snow depth measurements. For example, in the comparison against ground-based snow depth measurements, the majority of the stations (13 of 14) show slightly improved goodness-of-fit statistics as a result of the snow DA, but only four are statistically significant. In addition, comparisons to the satellite-based land surface temperature products (MOD11A1 and MYD11A1) show that freeze/thaw DA yields improvements (at certain grid cells) of up to 0.58 K in the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and 0.77 K in the absolute bias (relative to model-only simulations). In the comparison against three ground-based soil temperature measurements along the Himalayas, the bias and the RMSE in the 0-10 cm soil temperature are reduced (on average) by 10 and 7%, respectively. The improvements in the top layer of soil estimates also propagate through the deeper soil layers, where the bias and the RMSE in the 10-40 cm soil temperature are reduced (on average) by 9 and 6%, respectively. However, no statistically significant skill differences are observed for the freeze/thaw DA system in the comparisons against ground-based surface temperature measurements at mid-to-low altitude. Therefore, the two proposed DA schemes show the potential of improving the predictability of snow mass, surface temperature, and soil temperature states across HMA, but more ground-based measurements are still required, especially at high-altitudes, in order to document a more statistically significant improvement as a result of the two DA schemes.

Water Storage Trends in High Mountain Asia.

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in High Mountain Asia (HMA) could have major societal impacts, as the region's large reservoirs of glaciers, snow, and groundwater provide a freshwater source to more than one billion people. We seek to quantify and close the budget of secular changes in TWS over the span of the GRACE satellite mission (2003-2016). To assess the TWS trend budget we consider a new high-resolution mass trend product determined directly from GRACE L1B data, glacier mass balance derived from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), groundwater variability determined from confined and unconfined well observations, and terrestrial water budget estimates from a suite of land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System (LIS). This effort is successful at closing the aggregated TWS trend budget over the entire HMA region, the glaciated portion of HMA, and the Indus and Ganges basins, where the full-region trends are primarily due to the glacier mass balance and groundwater signals. Additionally, we investigate the closure of TWS trends at individual 1-arc-degree mascons (area ≈12,000 km2); a significant improvement in spatial resolution over previous analyses of GRACE-derived trends. This mascon-level analysis reveals locations where the TWS trends are well-explained by the independent datasets, as well as regions where they are not; identifying specific geographic areas where additional data and model improvements are needed. The accurate characterization of total TWS trends and its components presented here is critical to understanding the complex dynamics of the region, and is a necessary step toward projecting future water mass changes in HMA.

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment.

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980-2015 using the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125°× 1258° forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth, and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at p < 0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm yr-1 in the upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 mm yr-1 in the West and South, net radiation flux trends range from 10.05 to 10.20 W m-2 yr-1 in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 W m-2 yr-1 in the West, and U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03 K yr-1. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from west to east. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days yr-1 while trend detection increased 11%. Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, with RMSE decreasing only from 0.17 to 0.16 W m-2 yr-1, while trend detection increased 2%. NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm yr-1 while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gauged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Evaluating the uncertainty of terrestrial water budget components over High Mountain Asia.

This study explores the uncertainties in terrestrial water budget estimation over High Mountain Asia (HMA) using a suite of uncoupled land surface model (LSM) simulations. The uncertainty in the water balance components of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff(R), and terrestrial water storage (TWS) is significantly impacted by the uncertainty in the driving meteorology, with precipitation being the most important boundary condition. Ten gridded precipitation datasets along with a mix of model-, satellite-, and gauge-based products, are evaluated first to assess their suitability for LSM simulations over HMA. The datasets are evaluated by quantifying the systematic and random errors of these products as well as the temporal consistency of their trends. Though the broader spatial patterns of precipitation are generally well captured by the datasets, they differ significantly in their means and trends. In general, precipitation datasets that incorporate information from gauges are found to have higher accuracy with low Root Mean Square Errors and high correlation coefficient values. An ensemble of LSM simulations with selected subset of precipitation products is then used to produce the mean annual fluxes and their uncertainty over HMA in P, ET, and R to be 2.11±0.45, 1.26±0.11, and 0.85±0.36 mm per day, respectively. The mean annual estimates of the surface mass (water) balance components from this model ensemble are comparable to global estimates from prior studies. However, the uncertainty/spread of P, ET, and R is significantly larger than the corresponding estimates from global studies. A comparison of ET, snow cover fraction, and changes in TWS estimates against remote sensing-based references confirms the significant role of the input meteorology in influencing the water budget characterization over HMA and points to the need for improving meteorological inputs.

Modeling regional pollution transport events during KORUS-AQ: Progress and challenges in improving representation of land-atmosphere feedbacks.

This study evaluates the impact of assimilating soil moisture data from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) on short-term regional weather and air quality modeling in East Asia during the Korea-US Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) airborne campaign. SMAP data are assimilated into the Noah land surface model using an ensemble Kalman filter approach in the Land Information System framework, which is semi-coupled with the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model with online chemistry (NUWRF-Chem). With SMAP assimilation included, water vapor and carbon monoxide (CO) transport from northern-central China transitional climate zones to South Korea is better represented in NUWRF-Chem during two studied pollution events. Influenced by different synoptic conditions and emission patterns, impact of SMAP assimilation on modeled CO in South Korea is intense (>30 ppbv) during one event and less significant (<8 ppbv) during the other. SMAP assimilation impact on air quality modeling skill is complicated by other error sources such as the chemical initial and boundary conditions (IC/LBC) and emission inputs of NUWRF-Chem. Using a satellite-observation-constrained chemical IC/LBC instead of a free-running, coarser-resolution chemical IC/LBC reduces modeled CO by up to 80 ppbv over South Korea. Consequently, CO performance is improved in the middle-upper troposphere whereas degraded in the lower troposphere. Remaining negative CO biases result largely from the emissions inputs. The advancements in land surface modeling and chemical IC/LBC presented here are expected to benefit future investigations on constraining emissions using observations, which can in turn enable more accurate assessments of SMAP assimilation and chemical IC/LBC impacts.

Benchmarking NLDAS-2 Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration to Separate Uncertainty Contributions.

Model benchmarking allows us to separate uncertainty in model predictions caused by model inputs from uncertainty due to model structural error. We extend this method with a "large-sample" approach (using data from multiple field sites) to measure prediction uncertainty caused by errors in (i) forcing data, (ii) model parameters, and (iii) model structure, and use it to compare the efficiency of soil moisture state and evapotranspiration flux predictions made by the four land surface models in the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). Parameters dominated uncertainty in soil moisture estimates and forcing data dominated uncertainty in evapotranspiration estimates; however, the models themselves used only a fraction of the information available to them. This means that there is significant potential to improve all three components of the NLDAS-2 system. In particular, continued work toward refining the parameter maps and look-up tables, the forcing data measurement and processing, and also the land surface models themselves, has potential to result in improved estimates of surface mass and energy balances.