Reactive Oxygen Species Mediate the Bactericidal Activity of Chlorine Against Salmonella.

Chlorine and its derivatives have been used as an antibacterial agent to reduce Salmonella contamination in poultry meat during processing. We evaluated the survival of 4 different Salmonella serotypes (Typhimurium, Enteritidis, Heidelberg, and Gaminara) in the presence of 50 ppm sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl) alone or with the addition of thiourea (radical scavenger) or Dip (iron chelator) to determine the contribution of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in the bactericidal activity of NaOCl. The result showed that for all four serotypes the addition of thiourea or Dip significantly increased the % survival as compared to the respective NaOCl treatment groups, while it was significantly higher with thiourea as compared to Dip (P < 0.05). We also evaluated the survival of 11 deletion mutants of S. Typhimurium, which were demonstrated to increase (∆atpC, ∆cyoA, ∆gnd, ∆nuoG, ∆pta, ∆sdhC, and ∆zwf) or decrease the production of ROS (∆edd, ∆fumB, ∆pykA, and ∆tktB) in Escherichia coli (E. coli), in the presence of 50 ppm. The results showed that only two (∆sdhC and ∆zwf) out of 7 ROS-increasing mutants showed reduced % survival as compared to the wild-type (P < 0.05), while all four deletion ROS-decreasing mutants showed significantly higher % survival as compared to the wild-type (P < 0.05). This work suggests that the production of ROS is a major component of the bactericidal activity of NaOCl against Salmonella serotypes and there might be a significant difference in the metabolic pathways involved in ROS production between Salmonella and E. coli.

Medical Malpractice Litigation Trends Following Primary Total Hip and Knee Joint Arthroplasty: An Updated Nationwide Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Total joint arthroplasty (TJA) is the most common procedure associated with malpractice claims within orthopaedic surgery. Although prior research has assessed prevalent causes and outcomes of TJA-related lawsuits before 2018, the dynamic healthcare environment demands regular re-evaluations. This study aimed to provide an updated analysis of the predominant causes and outcomes of TJA-related malpractice lawsuits and analyze the outcomes of subsequent appeals following initial jury verdicts. METHODS: A legal database was queried for cases between 2018 and 2022 involving primary hip and knee TJA in the United States. Cases were listed as original rulings or appeals and reviewed for the alleged negligence, damages incurred, demographics, and verdicts. Appeals were further assessed for appellant details, preliminary judgment, and outcomes. The findings were compared to previous litigation data using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: The final cohort comprised 59 cases: 33 (56%) total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and 26 (44%) total hip arthroplasty (THA) from 2018 to 2022. The TKA cases primarily cited pain (24%), while the THA cases cited nerve injuries (31%). Negligence largely stemmed from procedural error (47%), postsurgical error (27%), and failure to inform (14%). Case outcomes were in favor of the defense in 66% of cases. Overall, 90% of primary verdicts led to appeals, with 71% by the plaintiff. Initial rulings were upheld in 87% of plaintiff appeals, whereas only 53% of defendant appeals retained the initial judgment. CONCLUSION: The primary causative factor of litigation shifted from infection to ongoing/worsening pain postoperatively in TKA cases over time. While nerve injury TKA cases have decreased, it remains the most cited damage in THA cases. Defense verdicts are common, but there is an increasing number of verdicts against defendants. Plaintiffs are more likely to appeal, but are less successful in appellate courts. These findings allow surgeons and policymakers to address emerging litigation trends in TJA to enhance patient care, mitigate risks, and improve the overall quality of TJA.

Prediction of 30-Day Mortality Following Revision Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: Machine Learning Algorithms Outperform CARDE-B, 5-Item, and 6-Item Modified Frailty Index Risk Scores.

BACKGROUND: Although risk calculators are used to prognosticate postoperative outcomes following revision total hip and knee arthroplasty (total joint arthroplasty [TJA]), machine learning (ML) based predictive tools have emerged as a promising alternative for improved risk stratification. This study aimed to compare the predictive ability of ML models for 30-day mortality following revision TJA to that of traditional risk-assessment indices such as the CARDE-B score (congestive heart failure, albumin (< 3.5 mg/dL), renal failure on dialysis, dependence for daily living, elderly (> 65 years of age), and body mass index (BMI) of < 25 kg/m2), 5-item modified frailty index (5MFI), and 6MFI. METHODS: Adult patients undergoing revision TJA between 2013 and 2020 were selected from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database and randomly split 80:20 to compose the training and validation cohorts. There were 3 ML models - extreme gradient boosting, random forest, and elastic-net penalized logistic regression (NEPLR) - that were developed and evaluated using discrimination, calibration metrics, and accuracy. The discrimination of CARDE-B, 5MFI, and 6MFI scores was assessed individually and compared to that of ML models. RESULTS: All models were equally accurate (Brier score = 0.005) and demonstrated outstanding discrimination with similar areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs, extreme gradient boosting = 0.94, random forest = NEPLR = 0.93). The NEPLR was the best-calibrated model overall (slope = 0.54, intercept = -0.004). The CARDE-B had the highest discrimination among the scores (AUC = 0.89), followed by 6MFI (AUC = 0.80), and 5MFI (AUC = 0.68). Albumin < 3.5 mg/dL and BMI (< 30.15) were the most important predictors of 30-day mortality following revision TJA. CONCLUSIONS: The ML models outperform traditional risk-assessment indices in predicting postoperative 30-day mortality after revision TJA. Our findings highlight the utility of ML for risk stratification in a clinical setting. The identification of hypoalbuminemia and BMI as prognostic markers may allow patient-specific perioperative optimization strategies to improve outcomes following revision TJA.

Do preoperative PROMIS scores independently predict 90-day readmission following primary total knee arthroplasty?

INTRODUCTION: The rising demand for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is expected to increase the total number of TKA-related readmissions, presenting significant public health and economic burden. With the increasing use of Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) scores to inform clinical decision-making, this study aimed to investigate whether preoperative PROMIS scores are predictive of 90-day readmissions following primary TKA. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed a consecutive series of 10,196 patients with preoperative PROMIS scores who underwent primary TKA. Two comparison groups, readmissions (n = 79; 3.6%) and non-readmissions (n = 2091; 96.4%) were established. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were then performed with readmission as the outcome variable to determine whether preoperative PROMIS scores could predict 90-day readmission. RESULTS: The study cohort consisted of 2170 patients overall. Non-white patients (OR = 3.53, 95% CI [1.16, 10.71], p = 0.026) and patients with cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease (CVD) (OR = 1.66, 95% CI [1.01, 2.71], p = 0.042) were found to have significantly higher odds of 90-day readmission after TKA. Preoperative PROMIS-PF10a (p = 0.25), PROMIS-GPH (p = 0.38), and PROMIS-GMH (p = 0.07) scores were not significantly associated with 90-day readmission. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that preoperative PROMIS scores may not be used to predict 90-day readmission following primary TKA. Non-white patients and patients with CVD are 3.53 and 1.66 times more likely to be readmitted, highlighting existing racial disparities and medical comorbidities contributing to readmission in patients undergoing TKA.

Are social determinants of health associated with an increased length of hospitalization after revision total hip and knee arthroplasty? A comparison study of social deprivation indices.

INTRODUCTION: Length of stay (LOS) has been extensively assessed as a marker for healthcare utilization, functional outcomes, and cost of care for patients undergoing arthroplasty. The notable patient-to-patient variation in LOS following revision hip and knee total joint arthroplasty (TJA) suggests a potential opportunity to reduce preventable discharge delays. Previous studies investigated the impact of social determinants of health (SDoH) on orthopaedic conditions and outcomes using deprivation indices with inconsistent findings. The aim of the study is to compare the association of three publicly available national indices of social deprivation with prolonged LOS in revision TJA patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 1,047 consecutive patients who underwent a revision TJA were included in this retrospective study. Patient demographics, comorbidities, and behavioral characteristics were extracted. Area deprivation index (ADI), social deprivation index (SDI), and social vulnerability index (SVI) were recorded for each patient, following which univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the relationship between deprivation measures and prolonged LOS (greater than five days postoperatively). RESULTS: 193 patients had a prolonged LOS following surgery. Categorical ADI was significantly associated with prolonged LOS following surgery (OR = 2.14; 95% CI = 1.30-3.54; p = 0.003). No association with LOS was found using SDI and SVI. When accounting for other covariates, only ASA scores (ORrange=3.43-3.45; p < 0.001) and age (ORrange=1.00-1.03; prange=0.025-0.049) were independently associated with prolonged LOS. CONCLUSION: The varying relationship observed between the length of stay and socioeconomic markers in this study indicates that the selection of a deprivation index could significantly impact the outcomes when investigating the association between socioeconomic deprivation and clinical outcomes. These results suggest that ADI is a potential metric of social determinants of health that is applicable both clinically and in future policies related to hospital stays including bundled payment plan following revision TJA.

Predicting extended hospital stay following revision total hip arthroplasty: a machine learning model analysis based on the ACS-NSQIP database.

INTRODUCTION: Prolonged length of stay (LOS) following revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) can lead to increased healthcare costs, higher rates of readmission, and lower patient satisfaction. In this study, we investigated the predictive power of machine learning (ML) models for prolonged LOS after revision THA using patient data from a national-scale patient repository. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified 11,737 revision THA cases from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2013 to 2020. Prolonged LOS was defined as exceeding the 75th value of all LOSs in the study cohort. We developed four ML models: artificial neural network (ANN), random forest, histogram-based gradient boosting, and k-nearest neighbor, to predict prolonged LOS after revision THA. Each model's performance was assessed during training and testing sessions in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. RESULTS: The ANN model was the most accurate with an AUC of 0.82, calibration slope of 0.90, calibration intercept of 0.02, and Brier score of 0.140 during testing, indicating the model's competency in distinguishing patients subject to prolonged LOS with minimal prediction error. All models showed clinical utility by producing net benefits in the decision curve analyses. The most significant predictors of prolonged LOS were preoperative blood tests (hematocrit, platelet count, and leukocyte count), preoperative transfusion, operation time, indications for revision THA (infection), and age. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that the ML model accurately predicted prolonged LOS after revision THA. The results highlighted the importance of the indications for revision surgery in determining the risk of prolonged LOS. With the model's aid, clinicians can stratify individual patients based on key factors, improve care coordination and discharge planning for those at risk of prolonged LOS, and increase cost efficiency.

Effects of prior antibiotic use on clarithromycin resistance in Helicobacter pylori.

BACKGROUND: Macrolide antibiotics are widely used to treat various infections such as pneumonia and sinusitis, and previous exposure to macrolides is presumed to be a risk factor for standard triple therapy failure in Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) eradication. We aimed to determine whether previous use of macrolide antibiotics could affect clarithromycin resistance of H. pylori. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From the Korea National Health Insurance Service (NHIS2021-1-775) database, a total of 46,160 patients who were tested for clarithromycin resistance of H. pylori from 2016 to 2019 in Korea were identified. Their history of antibiotics in the past 10 years and history of respiratory comorbidity in the past 1 year were investigated. RESULTS: Clarithromycin resistance rate of H. pylori in Korea was 16.2%. A multivariate analysis revealed that female sex (OR: 1.472, p < .001), age > 50 years (OR: 1.340, p < .001), previous use of macrolide antibiotics (clarithromycin, OR: 2.902, p < .001; azithromycin, OR: 1.930, p < .001; erythromycin, OR: 2.060, p = .001; roxithromycin, OR: 2.022, p < .001), and history of respiratory comorbidity (sinusitis, OR: 1.271, p < .001; laryngopharyngitis, OR: 1.135, p = .032; bronchitis, OR: 1.245, p = .001; pneumonia, OR: 1.335, p = .026) were independent risk factors of clarithromycin resistance in H. pylori. CONCLUSIONS: The use of macrolide antibiotics and a recent diagnosis of respiratory disease might increase clarithromycin resistance of H. pylori.

Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Physical Function and Global Physical Health Subscale Strongly Correlate and Perform Similarly to the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short Form.

BACKGROUND: Arthroplasty surgeons use a variety of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) to assess functional well-being, including the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) Physical Function short form (KOOS-PS), Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Physical Function Short Form 10a (PROMIS PF SF 10a), and PROMIS Global-10 Physical Health subscale. However, there is a paucity of literature assessing their concurrent validity and performance. METHODS: Between June 2016 and December 2020, patient visits at an arthroplasty clinic for knee concerns were identified. Patients who completed KOOS-PS, PROMIS PF SF 10a, and PROMIS Global-10, including its physical and mental health subscales, at the same visit were identified. Spearman rho (ρ) correlations were calculated and ceiling and floor effects identified. Overall, 5,303 patient encounters were included. RESULTS: Among physical function domains, strong correlation existed between the KOOS-PS and PROMIS PF SF 10a (ρ = 0.76, P < .001), KOOS-PS and PROMIS Global Physical Health (ρ = 0.71, P < .001), and PROMIS PF SF 10a and PROMIS Global Physical Health (ρ = 0.78, P < .001). No physical function-focused PROM had an appreciable floor effect (ie, at or more than 1%). The KOOS-PS had a small but measurable ceiling effect (n = 105 [2.0%]). CONCLUSIONS: All of the examined PROMs are acceptable to measure the functional status of patients with knee pathology, with the PROMIS Global-10 also being able to capture elements of mental health too. The PROMIS Global-10 may be of most value of the PROMs assessed, as the United States Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services already incorporate the mental health component into new alternative payment models.

Internal and External Validation of the Generalizability of Machine Learning Algorithms in Predicting Non-home Discharge Disposition Following Primary Total Knee Joint Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Nonhome discharge disposition following primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is associated with a higher rate of complications and constitutes a socioeconomic burden on the health care system. While existing algorithms predicting nonhome discharge disposition varied in degrees of mathematical complexity and prediction power, their capacity to generalize predictions beyond the development dataset remains limited. Therefore, this study aimed to establish the machine learning model generalizability by performing internal and external validations using nation-scale and institutional cohorts, respectively. METHODS: Four machine learning models were trained using the national cohort. Recursive feature elimination and hyper-parameter tuning were applied. Internal validation was achieved through five-fold cross-validation during model training. The trained models' performance was externally validated using the institutional cohort and assessed by discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. RESULTS: The national (424,354 patients) and institutional (10,196 patients) cohorts had non-home discharge rates of 19.4 and 36.4%, respectively. The areas under the receiver operating curve of the model predictions were 0.83 to 0.84 during internal validation and increased to 0.88 to 0.89 during external validation. Artificial neural network and histogram-based gradient boosting elicited the best performance with a mean area under the receiver operating curve of 0.89, calibration slope of 1.39, and Brier score of 0.14, which indicated that the two models were robust in distinguishing non-home discharge and well-calibrated with accurate predictions of the probabilities. The low inter-dataset similarity indicated reliable external validation. Length of stay, age, body mass index, and sex were the strongest predictors of discharge destination after primary TKA. CONCLUSION: The machine learning models demonstrated excellent predictive performance during both internal and external validations, supporting their generalizability across different patient cohorts and potential applicability in the clinical workflow.

Validation of Machine Learning Model Performance in Predicting Blood Transfusion After Primary and Revision Total Hip Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: The rates of blood transfusion following primary and revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) remain as high as 9% and 18%, respectively, contributing to patient morbidity and healthcare costs. Existing predictive tools are limited to specific populations, thereby diminishing their clinical applicability. This study aimed to externally validate our previous institutionally developed machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict the risk of postoperative blood transfusion following primary and revision THA using national inpatient data. METHODS: Five ML algorithms were trained and validated using data from 101,266 primary THA and 8,594 revision THA patients from a large national database to predict postoperative transfusion risk after primary and revision THA. Models were assessed and compared based on discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The most important predictors of transfusion following primary and revision THA were preoperative hematocrit (<39.4%) and operation time (>157 minutes), respectively. All ML models demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under the curve (AUC) >0.8) in primary and revision THA patients, with artificial neural network (AUC = 0.84, slope = 1.11, intercept = -0.04, Brier score = 0.04), and elastic-net-penalized logistic regression (AUC = 0.85, slope = 1.08, intercept = -0.01, and Brier score = 0.12) performing best, respectively. On decision curve analysis, all 5 models demonstrated a higher net benefit than the conventional strategy of intervening for all or no patients in both patient cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: This study successfully validated our previous institutionally developed ML algorithms for the prediction of blood transfusion following primary and revision THA. Our findings highlight the potential generalizability of predictive ML tools developed using nationally representative data in THA patients.

Machine Learning Models Based on a National-Scale Cohort Identify Patients at High Risk for Prolonged Lengths of Stay Following Primary Total Hip Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Existing machine learning models that predicted prolonged lengths of stay (LOS) following primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) were limited by the small training volume and exclusion of important patient factors. This study aimed to develop machine learning models using a national-scale data set and examine their performance in predicting prolonged LOS following THA. METHODS: A total of 246,265 THAs were analyzed from a large database. Prolonged LOS was defined as exceeding the 75th percentile of all LOSs in the cohort. Candidate predictors of prolonged LOS were selected by recursive feature elimination and used to construct four machine learning models-artificial neural network, random forest, histogram-based gradient boosting, and k-nearest neighbor. The model performance was assessed by discrimination, calibration, and utility. RESULTS: All models exhibited excellent performance in discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.72 to 0.74) and calibration (slope: 0.83 to 1.18, intercept: -0.01 to 0.11, Brier score: 0.185 to 0.192) during both training and testing sessions. The artificial neural network was the best performer with an AUC of 0.73, calibration slope of 0.99, calibration intercept of -0.01, and Brier score of 0.185. All models showed great utility by producing higher net benefits than the default treatment strategies in the decision curve analyses. Age, laboratory tests, and surgical variables were the strongest predictors of prolonged LOS. CONCLUSION: The excellent prediction performance of machine learning models demonstrated their capacity to identify patients prone to prolonged LOS. Many factors contributing to prolonged LOS can be optimized to minimize hospital stay for high-risk patients.

Validation and Generalizability of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of Discharge Disposition Following Revision Total Knee Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative discharge to facilities account for over 33% of the $ 2.7 billion revision total knee arthroplasty (TKA)-associated annual expenditures and are associated with increased complications when compared to home discharges. Prior studies predicting discharge disposition using advanced machine learning (ML) have been limited due to a lack of generalizability and validation. This study aimed to establish ML model generalizability by externally validating its prediction for nonhome discharge following revision TKA using national and institutional databases. METHODS: The national and institutional cohorts comprised 52,533 and 1,628 patients, respectively, with 20.6 and 19.4% nonhome discharge rates. Five ML models were trained and internally validated (five-fold cross-validation) on a large national dataset. Subsequently, external validation was performed on our institutional dataset. Model performance was assessed using discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Global predictor importance plots and local surrogate models were used for interpretation. RESULTS: The strongest predictors of nonhome discharge were patient age, body mass index, and surgical indication. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increased from internal to external validation and ranged between 0.77 and 0.79. Artificial neural network was the best predictive model for identifying patients at risk for nonhome discharge (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.78), and also the most accurate (calibration slope = 0.93, intercept = 0.02, and Brier score = 0.12). CONCLUSION: All five ML models demonstrated good-to-excellent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility on external validation, with artificial neural network being the best model for predicting discharge disposition following revision TKA. Our findings establish the generalizability of ML models developed using data from a national database. The integration of these predictive models into clinical workflow may assist in optimizing discharge planning, bed management, and cost containment associated with revision TKA.

Hypofractionated stereotactic radiosurgery for aggressive vertebral haemangioma and useful follow-up imaging modality: case report and review of the literature.

We report the use of an advanced magnetic resonance image (MRI) sequence to detect the treatment response after SRS for aggressive vertebral haemangioma (VH). A 63-year-old female patient presented with back pain, bilateral lower extremity weakness (grade IV), and sensory change in the saddle area. MRI revealed a vertebral body mass compressing the spinal cord at T10, which had high T2 and low T1 signal intensity. Three-dimensional volumetric sagittal time-resolved imaging of contrast kinetics (TRICKS) abdominal magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) showed it to be hypervascular. SRS with the Novalis beam shaping system (BrainLAB; Heimstetten®, Germany) was performed on the gross tumor volume of 14.954 mL. 30 Gy was given to the 90% isodose line in 5 fractions. Seven days later, the patient underwent decompressive laminectomy for weakness. Seven months later, the patient's motor weakness was improved to allow for unassisted gait, and back pain and sensory changes resolved. Follow-up MRI revealed no significant change on T1 and T2 signal intensity images. However, TRICKS abdominal MRA demonstrated disapprearance of the hypervascularity. Seven years after SRS, the same signal intensity images showed shrinkage of the mass and resolution of compression of the spinal cord, and the signal intensity of the T1 image was changed to iso- and high signal intensity.

Complete blood platelet and lymphocyte ratios increase diagnostic accuracy of periprosthetic joint infection following total hip arthroplasty.

INTRODUCTION: Systemically, changes in serum platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), platelet count to mean platelet volume ratio (PVR), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and monocyte to lymphocyte (MLR) represent primary responses to early inflammation and infection. This study aimed to determine whether PLR, PVR, NLR, and MLR can be useful in diagnosing periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) in total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients. METHODS: A total of 464 patients that underwent revision THA with calculable PLR, PVR, NLR, and MLR in 2 groups was evaluated: 1) 191 patients with a pre-operative diagnosis of PJI, and 2) 273 matched patients treated for revision THA for aseptic complications. RESULTS: The sensitivity and specificity of PLR combined with erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), synovial white blood cell count (WBC) and synovial polymorphonuclear leukocytes (PMN) (97.9%; 98.5%) is significantly higher than only ESR combined with CRP, synovial WBC and synovial PMN (94.2%; 94.5%; p < 0.01). The sensitivity and specificity of PVR combined with ESR, CRP and synovial WBC, and synovial PMN (98.4%; 98.2%) is higher than only ESR combined with CRP, synovial WBC and synovial PMN (94.2%; 94.5%; p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The study results demonstrate that both PLR and PVR calculated from complete blood counts when combined with serum and synovial fluid markers have increased diagnostic sensitivity and specificity in diagnosing periprosthetic joint infection in THA patients. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III, case-control retrospective analysis.

The utilization of artificial neural networks for the prediction of 90-day unplanned readmissions following total knee arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: A reliable predictive tool to predict unplanned readmissions has the potential to lower readmission rates through targeted pre-operative counseling and intervention with respect to modifiable risk factors. This study aimed to develop and internally validate machine learning models for the prediction of 90-day unplanned readmissions following total knee arthroplasty. METHODS: A total of 10,021 consecutive patients underwent total knee arthroplasty. Patient charts were manually reviewed to identify patient demographics and surgical variables that may be associated with 90-day unplanned hospital readmissions. Four machine learning algorithms (artificial neural networks, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbor, and elastic-net penalized logistic regression) were developed to predict 90-day unplanned readmissions following total knee arthroplasty and these models were evaluated using ROC AUC statistics as well as calibration and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Within the study cohort, 644 patients (6.4%) were readmitted within 90 days. The factors most significantly associated with 90-day unplanned hospital readmissions included drug abuse, surgical operative time, and American Society of Anaesthesiologist Physical Status (ASA) score. The machine learning models all achieved excellent performance across discrimination (AUC > 0.82), calibration, and decision curve analysis. CONCLUSION: This study developed four machine learning models for the prediction of 90-day unplanned hospital readmissions in patients following total knee arthroplasty. The strongest predictors for unplanned hospital readmissions were drug abuse, surgical operative time, and ASA score. The study findings show excellent model performance across all four models, highlighting the potential of these models for the identification of high-risk patients prior to surgery for whom coordinated care efforts may decrease the risk of subsequent hospital readmission. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, case-control retrospective analysis.

Can machine learning models predict prolonged length of hospital stay following primary total knee arthroplasty based on a national patient cohort data?

INTRODUCTION: The total length of stay (LOS) is one of the biggest determinators of overall care costs associated with total knee arthroplasty (TKA). An accurate prediction of LOS could aid in optimizing discharge strategy for patients in need and diminishing healthcare expenditure. The aim of this study was to predict LOS following TKA using machine learning models developed on a national-scale patient cohort. METHODS: The ACS-NSQIP database was queried to acquire 267,966 TKA cases from 2013 to 2020. Four machine learning models-artificial neural network (ANN), random forest, histogram-based gradient boosting, and k-nearest neighbor were trained and tested on the dataset for the prediction of prolonged LOS (LOS exceeded the 75th of all values in the cohort). The model performance was assessed by discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]), calibration, and clinical utility. RESULTS: ANN delivered the best performance among the four models. ANN distinguished prolonged LOS in the study cohort with an AUC of 0.71 and accurately predicted the probability of prolonged LOS for individual patients (calibration slope: 0.82; calibration intercept: 0.03; Brier score: 0.089). All models demonstrated clinical utility by generating positive net benefits in decision curve analyses. Operation time, pre-operative transfusion, pre-operative laboratory tests (hematocrit, platelet count, and white blood cell count), and BMI were the strongest predictors of prolonged LOS. CONCLUSION: ANN demonstrated modest discrimination capacity and excellent performance in calibration and clinical utility for the prediction of prolonged LOS following TKA. Clinical application of the machine learning models has the potential to improve care coordination and discharge planning for patients at high risk of extended hospitalization after surgery. Incorporating more relevant patient factors may further increase the models' prediction strength.

Artificial neural networks for the prediction of transfusion rates in primary total hip arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Despite advancements in total hip arthroplasty (THA) and the increased utilization of tranexamic acid, acute blood loss anemia necessitating allogeneic blood transfusion persists as a post-operative complication. The prevalence of allogeneic blood transfusion in primary THA has been reported to be as high as 9%. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate novel machine learning models for the prediction of transfusion rates following primary total hip arthroplasty. METHODS: A total of 7265 consecutive patients who underwent primary total hip arthroplasty were evaluated using a single tertiary referral institution database. Patient charts were manually reviewed to identify patient demographics and surgical variables that may be associated with transfusion rates. Four state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms were developed to predict transfusion rates following primary THA, and these models were assessed by discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The factors most significantly associated with transfusion rates include tranexamic acid usage, bleeding disorders, and pre-operative hematocrit (< 33%). The four machine learning models all achieved excellent performance across discrimination (AUC > 0.78), calibration, and decision curve analysis. CONCLUSION: This study developed machine learning models for the prediction of patient-specific transfusion rates following primary total hip arthroplasty. The results represent a novel application of machine learning, and has the potential to improve outcomes and pre-operative planning. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III, case-control retrospective analysis.

Predicting surgical operative time in primary total knee arthroplasty utilizing machine learning models.

BACKGROUND: Prolonged surgical operative time is associated with postoperative adverse outcomes following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Increasing operating room efficiency necessitates the accurate prediction of surgical operative time for each patient. One potential way to increase the accuracy of predictions is to use advanced predictive analytics, such as machine learning. The aim of this study is to use machine learning to develop an accurate predictive model for surgical operative time for patients undergoing primary total knee arthroplasty. METHODS: A retrospective chart review of electronic medical records was conducted to identify patients who underwent primary total knee arthroplasty at a tertiary referral center. Three machine learning algorithms were developed to predict surgical operative time and were assessed by discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis. Specifically, we used: (1) Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), (2) Random Forest (RF), and (3) K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). RESULTS: We analyzed the surgical operative time for 10,021 consecutive patients who underwent primary total knee arthroplasty. The neural network model achieved the best performance across discrimination (AUC = 0.82), calibration and decision curve analysis for predicting surgical operative time. Based on this algorithm, younger age (< 45 years), tranexamic acid non-usage, and a high BMI (> 40 kg/m2) were the strongest predictors associated with surgical operative time. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows excellent performance of machine learning models for predicting surgical operative time in primary total knee arthroplasty. The accurate estimation of surgical duration is important in enhancing OR efficiency and identifying patients at risk for prolonged surgical operative time. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, case control retrospective analysis.

The utility of machine learning algorithms for the prediction of patient-reported outcome measures following primary hip and knee total joint arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are increasingly used as quality benchmark in total hip and knee arthroplasty (THA; TKA) due to bundled payment systems that aim to provide a patient-centered, value-based treatment approach. However, there is a paucity of predictive tools for postoperative PROMs. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate machine learning models for the prediction of numerous patient-reported outcome measures following primary hip and knee total joint arthroplasty. METHODS: A total of 4526 consecutive patients (2137 THA; 2389 TKA) who underwent primary hip and knee total joint arthroplasty and completed both pre- and postoperative PROM scores was evaluated in this study. The following PROM scores were included for analysis: HOOS-PS, KOOS-PS, Physical Function SF10A, PROMIS SF Physical and PROMIS SF Mental. Patient charts were manually reviewed to identify patient demographics and surgical variables associated with postoperative PROM scores. Four machine learning algorithms were developed to predict postoperative PROMs following hip and knee total joint arthroplasty. Model assessment was performed through discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The factors most significantly associated with the prediction of postoperative PROMs include preoperative PROM scores, Charlson Comorbidity Index, American Society of Anaesthesiology score, insurance status, age, length of hospital stay, body mass index and ethnicity. The four machine learning models all achieved excellent performance across discrimination (AUC > 0.83), calibration and decision curve analysis. CONCLUSION: This study developed machine learning models for the prediction of patient-reported outcome measures at 1-year following primary hip and knee total joint arthroplasty. The study findings show excellent performance on discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis for all four machine learning models, highlighting the potential of these models in clinical practice to inform patients prior to surgery regarding their expectations of postoperative functional outcomes following primary hip and knee total joint arthroplasty. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, case control retrospective analysis.

Can machine learning models predict failure of revision total hip arthroplasty?

INTRODUCTION: Revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) represents a technically demanding surgical procedure which is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Understanding risk factors for failure of revision THA is of clinical importance to identify at-risk patients. This study aimed to develop and validate novel machine learning algorithms for the prediction of re-revision surgery for patients following revision total hip arthroplasty. METHODS: A total of 2588 consecutive patients that underwent revision THA was evaluated, including 408 patients (15.7%) with confirmed re-revision THA. Electronic patient records were manually reviewed to identify patient demographics, implant characteristics and surgical variables that may be associated with re-revision THA. Machine learning algorithms were developed to predict re-revision THA and these models were assessed by discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The strongest predictors for re-revision THA as predicted by the four validated machine learning models were the American Society of Anaesthesiology score, obesity (> 35 kg/m2) and indication for revision THA. The four machine learning models all achieved excellent performance across discrimination (AUC > 0.80), calibration and decision curve analysis. Higher net benefits for all machine learning models were demonstrated, when compared to the default strategies of changing management for all patients or no patients. CONCLUSION: This study developed four machine learning models for the prediction of re-revision surgery for patients following revision total hip arthroplasty. The study findings show excellent model performance, highlighting the potential of these computational models to assist in preoperative patient optimization and counselling to improve revision THA patient outcomes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, case-control retrospective analysis.