Population immunity predicts evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2.

The large-scale evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been marked by rapid turnover of genetic clades. New variants show intrinsic changes, notably increased transmissibility, and antigenic changes that reduce cross-immunity induced by previous infections or vaccinations. How this functional variation shapes global evolution has remained unclear. Here, we establish a predictive fitness model for SARS-CoV-2 that integrates antigenic and intrinsic selection. The model is informed by tracking of time-resolved sequence data, epidemiological records, and cross-neutralization data of viral variants. Our inference shows that immune pressure, including contributions of vaccinations and previous infections, has become the dominant force driving the recent evolution of SARS-CoV-2. The fitness model can serve continued surveillance in two ways. First, it successfully predicts the short-term evolution of circulating strains and flags emerging variants likely to displace the previously predominant variant. Second, it predicts likely antigenic profiles of successful escape variants prior to their emergence.

Steering and controlling evolution - from bioengineering to fighting pathogens.

Control interventions steer the evolution of molecules, viruses, microorganisms or other cells towards a desired outcome. Applications range from engineering biomolecules and synthetic organisms to drug, therapy and vaccine design against pathogens and cancer. In all these instances, a control system alters the eco-evolutionary trajectory of a target system, inducing new functions or suppressing escape evolution. Here, we synthesize the objectives, mechanisms and dynamics of eco-evolutionary control in different biological systems. We discuss how the control system learns and processes information about the target system by sensing or measuring, through adaptive evolution or computational prediction of future trajectories. This information flow distinguishes pre-emptive control strategies by humans from feedback control in biotic systems. We establish a cost-benefit calculus to gauge and optimize control protocols, highlighting the fundamental link between predictability of evolution and efficacy of pre-emptive control.

Gene expression variability across cells and species shapes innate immunity.

As the first line of defence against pathogens, cells mount an innate immune response, which varies widely from cell to cell. The response must be potent but carefully controlled to avoid self-damage. How these constraints have shaped the evolution of innate immunity remains poorly understood. Here we characterize the innate immune response's transcriptional divergence between species and variability in expression among cells. Using bulk and single-cell transcriptomics in fibroblasts and mononuclear phagocytes from different species, challenged with immune stimuli, we map the architecture of the innate immune response. Transcriptionally diverging genes, including those that encode cytokines and chemokines, vary across cells and have distinct promoter structures. Conversely, genes that are involved in the regulation of this response, such as those that encode transcription factors and kinases, are conserved between species and display low cell-to-cell variability in expression. We suggest that this expression pattern, which is observed across species and conditions, has evolved as a mechanism for fine-tuned regulation to achieve an effective but balanced response.

Antigenic waves of virus-immune coevolution.

The evolution of many microbes and pathogens, including circulating viruses such as seasonal influenza, is driven by immune pressure from the host population. In turn, the immune systems of infected populations get updated, chasing viruses even farther away. Quantitatively understanding how these dynamics result in observed patterns of rapid pathogen and immune adaptation is instrumental to epidemiological and evolutionary forecasting. Here we present a mathematical theory of coevolution between immune systems and viruses in a finite-dimensional antigenic space, which describes the cross-reactivity of viral strains and immune systems primed by previous infections. We show the emergence of an antigenic wave that is pushed forward and canalized by cross-reactivity. We obtain analytical results for shape, speed, and angular diffusion of the wave. In particular, we show that viral-immune coevolution generates an emergent timescale, the persistence time of the wave's direction in antigenic space, which can be much longer than the coalescence time of the viral population. We compare these dynamics to the observed antigenic turnover of influenza strains, and we discuss how the dimensionality of antigenic space impacts the predictability of the evolutionary dynamics. Our results provide a concrete and tractable framework to describe pathogen-host coevolution.

Predicting in vivo escape dynamics of HIV-1 from a broadly neutralizing antibody.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies are promising candidates for treatment and prevention of HIV-1 infections. Such antibodies can temporarily suppress viral load in infected individuals; however, the virus often rebounds by escape mutants that have evolved resistance. In this paper, we map a fitness model of HIV-1 interacting with broadly neutralizing antibodies using in vivo data from a recent clinical trial. We identify two fitness factors, antibody dosage and viral load, that determine viral reproduction rates reproducibly across different hosts. The model successfully predicts the escape dynamics of HIV-1 in the course of an antibody treatment, including a characteristic frequency turnover between sensitive and resistant strains. This turnover is governed by a dosage-dependent fitness ranking, resulting from an evolutionary trade-off between antibody resistance and its collateral cost in drug-free growth. Our analysis suggests resistance-cost trade-off curves as a measure of antibody performance in the presence of resistance evolution.

Adaptive evolution of hybrid bacteria by horizontal gene transfer.

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is an important factor in bacterial evolution that can act across species boundaries. Yet, we know little about rate and genomic targets of cross-lineage gene transfer and about its effects on the recipient organism's physiology and fitness. Here, we address these questions in a parallel evolution experiment with two Bacillus subtilis lineages of 7% sequence divergence. We observe rapid evolution of hybrid organisms: gene transfer swaps ∼12% of the core genome in just 200 generations, and 60% of core genes are replaced in at least one population. By genomics, transcriptomics, fitness assays, and statistical modeling, we show that transfer generates adaptive evolution and functional alterations in hybrids. Specifically, our experiments reveal a strong, repeatable fitness increase of evolved populations in the stationary growth phase. By genomic analysis of the transfer statistics across replicate populations, we infer that selection on HGT has a broad genetic basis: 40% of the observed transfers are adaptive. At the level of functional gene networks, we find signatures of negative, positive, and epistatic selection, consistent with hybrid incompatibilities and adaptive evolution of network functions. Our results suggest that gene transfer navigates a complex cross-lineage fitness landscape, bridging epistatic barriers along multiple high-fitness paths.

Eco-evolutionary control of pathogens.

Control can alter the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a target pathogen in two ways, by changing its population size and by directed evolution of new functions. Here, we develop a payoff model of eco-evolutionary control based on strategies of evolution, regulation, and computational forecasting. We apply this model to pathogen control by molecular antibody-antigen binding with a tunable dosage of antibodies. By analytical solution, we obtain optimal dosage protocols and establish a phase diagram with an error threshold delineating parameter regimes of successful and compromised control. The solution identifies few independently measurable fitness parameters that predict the outcome of control. Our analysis shows how optimal control strategies depend on mutation rate and population size of the pathogen, and how monitoring and computational forecasting affect protocols and efficiency of control. We argue that these results carry over to more general systems and are elements of an emerging eco-evolutionary control theory.

Clinical and Genomic Characterization of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) Infections in mRNA Vaccinated Health Care Personnel in New York City.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine-induced clinical protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) variants is an evolving target. There are limited genomic level data on SARS CoV-2 breakthrough infections and vaccine effectiveness (VE) since the global spread of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. METHODS: In a retrospective study from 1 November 2020 to 31 August 2021, divided as pre-Delta and Delta-dominant periods, laboratory-confirmed SARS CoV-2 infections among healthcare personnel (HCP) at a large tertiary cancer center in New York City were examined to compare the weekly infection rate-ratio in vaccinated, partially vaccinated, and unvaccinated HCP. We describe the clinical and genomic epidemiologic features of post-vaccine infections to assess for selection of variants of concern (VOC)/variants of interest (VOI) in the early post-vaccine period and impact of B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant domination on VE. RESULTS: Among 13658 HCP in our cohort, 12379 received at least 1 dose of a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine. In the pre-Delta period overall VE was 94.5%. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) of 369 isolates in the pre-Delta period did not reveal a clade bias for VOC/VOI specific to post-vaccine infections. VE in the Delta dominant phase was 75.6%. No hospitalizations occurred among vaccinated HCP in the entire study period, compared to 17 hospitalizations and 1 death among unvaccinated HCP. CONCLUSIONS: Findings show high VE among HCP in New York City in the pre-Delta phase, with moderate decline in VE post-Delta emergence. SARS CoV-2 clades were similarly distributed among vaccinated and unvaccinated infected HCP without apparent clustering during the pre-Delta period of diverse clade circulation. Strong vaccine protection against hospitalization was maintained through the entire study period.

Horizontal gene transfer overrides mutation in Escherichia coli colonizing the mammalian gut.

Bacteria evolve by mutation accumulation in laboratory experiments, but tempo and mode of evolution in natural environments are largely unknown. Here, we study the ubiquitous natural process of host colonization by commensal bacteria. We show, by experimental evolution of Escherichia coli in the mouse intestine, that the ecology of the gut controls the pace and mode of evolution of a new invading bacterial strain. If a resident E. coli strain is present in the gut, the invading strain evolves by rapid horizontal gene transfer (HGT), which precedes and outweighs evolution by accumulation of mutations. HGT is driven by 2 bacteriophages carried by the resident strain, which cause an epidemic phage infection of the invader. These dynamics are followed by subsequent evolution by clonal interference of genetically diverse lineages of phage-carrying (lysogenic) bacteria. We show that the genes uptaken by HGT enhance the metabolism of specific gut carbon sources and provide a fitness advantage to lysogenic invader lineages. A minimal dynamical model explains the temporal pattern of phage epidemics and the complex evolutionary outcome of phage-mediated selection. We conclude that phage-driven HGT is a key eco-evolutionary driving force of gut colonization-it accelerates evolution and promotes genetic diversity of commensal bacteria.

A predictive fitness model for influenza.

The seasonal human influenza A/H3N2 virus undergoes rapid evolution, which produces significant year-to-year sequence turnover in the population of circulating strains. Adaptive mutations respond to human immune challenge and occur primarily in antigenic epitopes, the antibody-binding domains of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin. Here we develop a fitness model for haemagglutinin that predicts the evolution of the viral population from one year to the next. Two factors are shown to determine the fitness of a strain: adaptive epitope changes and deleterious mutations outside the epitopes. We infer both fitness components for the strains circulating in a given year, using population-genetic data of all previous strains. From fitness and frequency of each strain, we predict the frequency of its descendent strains in the following year. This fitness model maps the adaptive history of influenza A and suggests a principled method for vaccine selection. Our results call for a more comprehensive epidemiology of influenza and other fast-evolving pathogens that integrates antigenic phenotypes with other viral functions coupled by genetic linkage.

Fitness cost of reassortment in human influenza.

Reassortment, which is the exchange of genome sequence between viruses co-infecting a host cell, plays an important role in the evolution of segmented viruses. In the human influenza virus, reassortment happens most frequently between co-existing variants within the same lineage. This process breaks genetic linkage and fitness correlations between viral genome segments, but the resulting net effect on viral fitness has remained unclear. In this paper, we determine rate and average selective effect of reassortment processes in the human influenza lineage A/H3N2. For the surface proteins hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, reassortant variants with a mean distance of at least 3 nucleotides to their parent strains get established at a rate of about 10-2 in units of the neutral point mutation rate. Our inference is based on a new method to map reassortment events from joint genealogies of multiple genome segments, which is tested by extensive simulations. We show that intra-lineage reassortment processes are, on average, under substantial negative selection that increases in strength with increasing sequence distance between the parent strains. The deleterious effects of reassortment manifest themselves in two ways: there are fewer reassortment events than expected from a null model of neutral reassortment, and reassortant strains have fewer descendants than their non-reassortant counterparts. Our results suggest that influenza evolves under ubiquitous epistasis across proteins, which produces fitness barriers against reassortment even between co-circulating strains within one lineage.

Fitness landscape for nucleosome positioning.

Histone-DNA complexes, so-called nucleosomes, are the building blocks of DNA packaging in eukaryotic cells. The histone-binding affinity of a local DNA segment depends on its elastic properties and determines its accessibility within the nucleus, which plays an important role in the regulation of gene expression. Here, we derive a fitness landscape for intergenic DNA segments in yeast as a function of two molecular phenotypes: their elasticity-dependent histone affinity and their coverage with transcription factor binding sites. This landscape reveals substantial selection against nucleosome formation over a wide range of both phenotypes. We use it as the core component of a quantitative evolutionary model for intergenic DNA segments. This model consistently predicts the observed diversity of histone affinities within wild Saccharomyces paradoxus populations, as well as the affinity divergence between neighboring Saccharomyces species. Our analysis establishes histone binding and transcription factor binding as two separable modes of sequence evolution, each of which is a direct target of natural selection.

Nonlinear fitness landscape of a molecular pathway.

Genes are regulated because their expression involves a fitness cost to the organism. The production of proteins by transcription and translation is a well-known cost factor, but the enzymatic activity of the proteins produced can also reduce fitness, depending on the internal state and the environment of the cell. Here, we map the fitness costs of a key metabolic network, the lactose utilization pathway in Escherichia coli. We measure the growth of several regulatory lac operon mutants in different environments inducing expression of the lac genes. We find a strikingly nonlinear fitness landscape, which depends on the production rate and on the activity rate of the lac proteins. A simple fitness model of the lac pathway, based on elementary biophysical processes, predicts the growth rate of all observed strains. The nonlinearity of fitness is explained by a feedback loop: production and activity of the lac proteins reduce growth, but growth also affects the density of these molecules. This nonlinearity has important consequences for molecular function and evolution. It generates a cliff in the fitness landscape, beyond which populations cannot maintain growth. In viable populations, there is an expression barrier of the lac genes, which cannot be exceeded in any stationary growth process. Furthermore, the nonlinearity determines how the fitness of operon mutants depends on the inducer environment. We argue that fitness nonlinearities, expression barriers, and gene-environment interactions are generic features of fitness landscapes for metabolic pathways, and we discuss their implications for the evolution of regulation.

Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution.

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution. Our pipeline integrates four types of data: (1) sequence data of viral isolates collected on a worldwide scale, (2) epidemiological data on incidences, (3) antigenic characterization of circulating viruses, and (4) intrinsic viral phenotypes. From the combined analysis of these data, we obtain estimates of relative fitness for circulating strains and predictions of clade frequencies for periods of up to one year. Furthermore, we obtain comparative estimates of protection against future viral populations for candidate vaccine strains, providing a basis for pre-emptive vaccine strain selection. Continuously updated predictions obtained from the prediction pipeline for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are available on the website previr.app .

Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution.

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution. Our pipeline integrates four types of data: (1) sequence data of viral isolates collected on a worldwide scale, (2) epidemiological data on incidences, (3) antigenic characterization of circulating viruses, and (4) intrinsic viral phenotypes. From the combined analysis of these data, we obtain estimates of relative fitness for circulating strains and predictions of clade frequencies for periods of up to one year. Furthermore, we obtain comparative estimates of protection against future viral populations for candidate vaccine strains, providing a basis for pre-emptive vaccine strain selection. Continuously updated predictions obtained from the prediction pipeline for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are available on the website previr.app.

Fitness flux and ubiquity of adaptive evolution.

Natural selection favors fitter variants in a population, but actual evolutionary processes may decrease fitness by mutations and genetic drift. How is the stochastic evolution of molecular biological systems shaped by natural selection? Here, we derive a theorem on the fitness flux in a population, defined as the selective effect of its genotype frequency changes. The fitness-flux theorem generalizes Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection to evolutionary processes including mutations, genetic drift, and time-dependent selection. It shows that a generic state of populations is adaptive evolution: there is a positive fitness flux resulting from a surplus of beneficial over deleterious changes. In particular, stationary nonequilibrium evolution processes are predicted to be adaptive. Under specific nonstationary conditions, notably during a decrease in population size, the average fitness flux can become negative. We show that these predictions are in accordance with experiments in bacteria and bacteriophages and with genomic data in Drosophila. Our analysis establishes fitness flux as a universal measure of adaptation in molecular evolution.

Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges.

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

From fitness landscapes to seascapes: non-equilibrium dynamics of selection and adaptation.

Evolution is a quest for innovation. Organisms adapt to changing natural selection by evolving new phenotypes. Can we read this dynamics in their genomes? Not every mutation under positive selection responds to a change in selection: beneficial changes also occur at evolutionary equilibrium, repairing previous deleterious changes and restoring existing functions. Adaptation, by contrast, is viewed here as a non-equilibrium phenomenon: the genomic response to time-dependent selection. Our approach extends the static concept of fitness landscapes to dynamic fitness seascapes. It shows that adaptation requires a surplus of beneficial substitutions over deleterious ones. Here, we focus on the evolution of yeast and Drosophila genomes, providing examples where adaptive evolution can and cannot be inferred, despite the presence of positive selection.

Formation of regulatory modules by local sequence duplication.

Turnover of regulatory sequence and function is an important part of molecular evolution. But what are the modes of sequence evolution leading to rapid formation and loss of regulatory sites? Here we show that a large fraction of neighboring transcription factor binding sites in the fly genome have formed from a common sequence origin by local duplications. This mode of evolution is found to produce regulatory information: duplications can seed new sites in the neighborhood of existing sites. Duplicate seeds evolve subsequently by point mutations, often towards binding a different factor than their ancestral neighbor sites. These results are based on a statistical analysis of 346 cis-regulatory modules in the Drosophila melanogaster genome, and a comparison set of intergenic regulatory sequence in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In fly regulatory modules, pairs of binding sites show significantly enhanced sequence similarity up to distances of about 50 bp. We analyze these data in terms of an evolutionary model with two distinct modes of site formation: (i) evolution from independent sequence origin and (ii) divergent evolution following duplication of a common ancestor sequence. Our results suggest that pervasive formation of binding sites by local sequence duplications distinguishes the complex regulatory architecture of higher eukaryotes from the simpler architecture of unicellular organisms.

Discovery of ultrapotent broadly neutralizing antibodies from SARS-CoV-2 elite neutralizers.

A fraction of COVID-19 convalescent individuals mount a potent antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 with cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-1. To uncover their humoral response in detail, we performed single B cell analysis from 10 SARS-CoV-2 elite neutralizers. We isolated and analyzed 126 monoclonal antibodies, many of which were sarbecovirus cross-reactive, with some displaying merbecovirus- and embecovirus-reactivity. Several isolated broadly neutralizing antibodies were effective against B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.429, B.1.617, and B.1.617.2 variants and 19 prominent potential escape sites. Furthermore, assembly of 716,806 SARS-CoV-2 sequences predicted emerging escape variants, which were also effectively neutralized. One of these broadly neutralizing potent antibodies, R40-1G8, is a IGHV3-53 RBD-class-1 antibody. Remarkably, cryo-EM analysis revealed that R40-1G8 has a flexible binding mode, targeting both "up" and "down" conformations of the RBD. Given the threat of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants, we demonstrate that elite neutralizers are a valuable source for isolating ultrapotent antibody candidates to prevent and treat SARS-CoV-2 infection.