Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach.

This paper aims to study the role of gold as a hedge against inflation based on local monthly gold prices in China, India, Japan, France, the United Kingdom and the United States of America in periods ranging from 1955 to 2015. We extend the literature by using a novel approach with the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model (Shin et al., 2014). The main advantage of this model relies on its ability to simultaneously capture the short- and long-run asymmetries through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of changes in the independent variable(s). Moreover, we rely on local gold prices instead of those from London converted into local currencies like in most of previous studies. The results show that gold is not a hedge against inflation in the long run in all cases. In the short run, gold is an inflation hedge only in the UK, USA, and India. Furthermore, there is no long-run equilibrium between gold prices and the CPI in China, India and France. This difference may be due to traditional aspects of gold and custom controls for gold trade in these countries. Our robustness check suggests that the data time-frequency does not change the specification of the NARDL model but can change conclusions regarding the role of gold as a hedge against inflation in certain countries.

Fiscal Consolidation, Social Sector Expenditures and Twin Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence from Emerging and Middle-Income Countries.

Following the present scale of fiscal imbalances, governments often implement fiscal consolidation programs to restore macroeconomic stability. This paper empirically explores the connections between social expenditure, current account and fiscal consolidations using the system-GMM estimator, on a panel of 23 emerging and middle-income countries for the 2009-2018 period. Our results confirm that government social expenditure decreases once fiscal austerity measures are implemented, practically when they are spending-driven. Fiscal consolidation may hurt important social expenditure allocation mainly on education and health components. Furthermore, we find that fiscal consolidation improves the current account deficit, providing support for the twin deficits hypothesis. These findings indicate that fiscal consolidation will eventually contribute to medium- and long-term external debt stability through the current account improvement. However, the exclusion of key growth determinants such as human capital can lead to many inefficiencies such as weak competition in the provision of social services (Jafarov and Gunnarsson in Government spending on health care and education in Croatia: Efficiency and reform options, working paper 136, International Monetary Fund, 2008). We suggest rationalizing social spending and devoting the country's revenue to necessary and economically productive projects. The efficient use of resources will thus ensure better quality of education and health care services. This calls for good governance, an adequate administration and effective delivery structures.

Is financial development good for the environment? An asymmetric analysis with CO2 emissions in China.

This paper examines the asymmetric effect of financial development on CO2 emissions in China by controlling for the effects of economic growth and energy consumption. So far, no consensus has been found as regards the nature and the intensity of the relationship between CO2 emissions and financial development in China. While most previous studies found a positive effect of financial development on the environment, there have been also studies showing that financial development increases CO2 emissions in China or has no effect on it. Moreover, these studies have not accounted for a possible asymmetric impact that financial development can have on CO2 emissions in China. The empirical study in this paper is carried out with the unit root test with structural breaks and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. The obtained results show that an asymmetric effect exists. An increase in financial development helps decreasing CO2 emission. These results show the importance to support financial development in China to decrease CO2 emissions while sustaining economic growth.

Revisiting the growth-carbon dioxide emissions nexus in Pakistan.

Pakistan is the most polluted country according to the concentration of air pollution criterion and it has experienced a significant rise in economic growth during the recent years. This paper analyzes the nexus of CO2 emissions and economic growth using quarterly data over the period of 1960Q1-2014Q4. To provide conclusive policy recommendations, this study applied different econometric methodologies such as the quantile causality approach, the linear ARDL (autoregressive distribution lag) model and the quantile ARDL (QARDL) model. The results indicate evidence of causality running from economic growth to CO2 emissions at medium quantiles at the 5% level and at low and medium quantiles at the 10% significance level. Findings of linear and nonlinear ARDL models also support the transmission of growth to CO2 emissions in the long and short run. The Wald test for symmetry sustains the nonlinear ARDL model. Useful policy implications can be learned from the empirical findings.