The impact of rising sea temperatures on an Arctic top predator, the narwhal.

Arctic top predators are expected to be impacted by increasing temperatures associated with climate change, but the relationship between increasing sea temperatures and population dynamics of Arctic cetaceans remains largely unexplored. Narwhals (Monodon monoceros) are considered to be among the most sensitive of Arctic endemic marine mammals to climate change due to their limited prey selection, strict migratory patterns and high site fidelity. In the context of climate change, we assume that the population dynamics of narwhals are partly influenced by changes in environmental conditions, with warm areas of increasing sea temperatures having lower abundance of narwhals. Using a unique large dataset of 144 satellite tracked narwhals, sea surface temperature (SST) data spanning 25 years (1993-2018) and narwhal abundance estimates from 17 localities, we (1) assessed the thermal exposure of this species, (2) investigated the SST trends at the summer foraging grounds, and (3) assessed the relationship between SST and abundance of narwhals. We showed a sharp SST increase in Northwest, Mideast and Southeast Greenland, whereas no change could be detected in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and in the Greenland Sea. The rising sea temperatures were correlated with the smallest narwhal abundance observed in the Mideast and Southeast Greenland (< 2000 individuals), where the mean summer sea temperatures were the highest (6.3 °C) compared to the cold waters of the CAA (0.7 °C) that were associated with the largest narwhal populations (> 40,000 individuals). These results support the hypothesis that warming ocean waters will restrict the habitat range of the narwhal, further suggesting that narwhals from Mideast and Southeast Greenland may be under pressure to abandon their traditional habitats due to ocean warming, and consequently either migrate further North or locally go extinct.

Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline.

1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967-71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992-97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves. 2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12-18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10-11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves. 3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1-2 years earlier in the 1990s. 4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation. 5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lx function) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations). 6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at some islands in the 1960s/70s to < 5% of estimated carrying capacity by the late 1990s. The results of this study indicate an improved overall health of sea otters over the period of decline and suggest that limited nutritional resources were not the cause of the observed reduced population abundance. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the decline was caused by increased killer whale predation.