RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Previous studies show the reach of the current drug overdose epidemic into the U.S.-Mexico border region, albeit with a unique border-specific wave pattern compared to national waves and a delayed onset of fentanyl involvement (Wave I: 2002-2011, Wave II: 2012-2016, and Wave III: since 2017). The objective of this study is to examine the community predictors and the progression of overdose deaths across the U.S-Mexico border-specific epidemic waves. METHOD: Descriptive epidemiological profile of border communities across the unfolding of the opioid epidemic, integrated data from the CDC-WONDER multiple causes of death data set, the CDC SVI, Uniform Crime Report, and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Using spatially adjusted Bayes rates by border-specific epidemic waves, we provide a descriptive profile of the spatial unfolding of the drug overdose epidemic. Negative binomial regression models assessed community predictors of overdose deaths across waves. RESULTS: Spatial analysis identified moderate to steep increases in drug overdose deaths over the three waves along the border. The impact and unfolding of the epidemic in the U.S.-Mexico border region were not uniform and affecting communities with differing severity and timing. Our study also finds support for social vulnerability and community violence as predictors of overdose deaths over the current wave of the epidemic. CONCLUSION: Findings suggest that more disadvantaged U.S.-Mexico border communities may encounter increasing rates of overdose death over the coming years. Interventions need to target not only the supply side but also the underlying social root causes for sustainable overdose prevention.