The metabolomic signature of weight loss and remission in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: High-throughput metabolomics technologies in a variety of study designs have demonstrated a consistent metabolomic signature of overweight and type 2 diabetes. However, the extent to which these metabolomic patterns can be reversed with weight loss and diabetes remission has been weakly investigated. We aimed to characterise the metabolomic consequences of a weight-loss intervention in individuals with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We analysed 574 fasted serum samples collected within an existing RCT (the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial [DiRECT]) (N=298). In the trial, participating primary care practices were randomly assigned (1:1) to provide either a weight management programme (intervention) or best-practice care by guidelines (control) treatment to individuals with type 2 diabetes. Here, metabolomics analysis was performed on samples collected at baseline and 12 months using both untargeted MS and targeted 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Multivariable regression models were fitted to evaluate the effect of the intervention on metabolite levels. RESULTS: Decreases in branched-chain amino acids, sugars and LDL triglycerides, and increases in sphingolipids, plasmalogens and metabolites related to fatty acid metabolism were associated with the intervention (Holm-corrected p<0.05). In individuals who lost more than 9 kg between baseline and 12 months, those who achieved diabetes remission saw greater reductions in glucose, fructose and mannose, compared with those who did not achieve remission. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We have characterised the metabolomic effects of an integrated weight management programme previously shown to deliver weight loss and diabetes remission. A large proportion of the metabolome appears to be modifiable. Patterns of change were largely and strikingly opposite to perturbances previously documented with the development of type 2 diabetes. DATA AVAILABILITY: The data used for analysis are available on a research data repository ( https://researchdata.gla.ac.uk/ ) with access given to researchers subject to appropriate data sharing agreements. Metabolite data preparation, data pre-processing, statistical analyses and figure generation were performed in R Studio v.1.0.143 using R v.4.0.2. The R code for this study has been made publicly available on GitHub at: https://github.com/lauracorbin/metabolomics_of_direct .

The relationship between low prolactin and type 2 diabetes.

Prolactin (PRL) is secreted throughout life in men and women. At elevated levels, its physiological role in pregnancy and lactation, and pathological effects, are well known. However clinical implications of low circulating PRL are not well established. We conducted a meta-analysis to examine the relationship between low PRL levels and type 2 diabetes. Five papers included cross-sectional studies comprising 8,720 men (mean age range 51.4-60 years) and 3,429 women (49.5-61.6 years), and four papers included cohort studies comprising 2,948 men (52.1-60.0 years) and 3,203 women (49.2-60.1 years). Individuals with pregnancy, lactation and hyperprolactinemia, drugs known to alter circulating PRL levels, or pituitary diseases had been excluded. Although most studies used quartiles to categorize PRL groups for analysis, PRL cut-off values (all measured by chemiluminescence immunoassay) were variably defined between studies: the lowest PRL quartiles ranged from 3.6 ng/ml to 7.2 ng/ml in men and between 4.5 ng/ml to 8 ng/ml in women; and the highest PRL quartiles ranged from 6.9 ng/ml to 13 ng/ml in men and 9.6 ng/ml to 15.8 ng/ml in women. Type 2 diabetes was defined variably using self-reported physician's diagnosis, fasting blood glucose, oral glucose tolerance test or glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C). In cross-sectional studies, compared to individuals in the highest PRL groups (reference), those in the lowest PRL groups had greater risk of type 2 diabetes both in men: odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval = 1.86 (1.56-2.22) and in women: OR = 2.15 (1.63-2.85). In cohort studies, women showed a significant association between low PRL and type 2 diabetes: OR = 1.52 (1.02-2.28) but not men: OR = 1.44 (0.46-4.57). Relatively low heterogeneity was observed (I2 = 25-38.4%) for cross-sectional studies, but higher for cohort studies (I2 = 52.8-79.7%). In conclusion, low PRL is associated with type 2 diabetes, but discrepancy between men and women in the relationship within cohort studies requires further research.

Evidence-based definition of hypoprolactinemia in European men aged 40-86 years: the European male ageing study.

Empirical evidence for a low normal or reference interval for serum prolactin (PRL) is lacking for men, while the implications of very low PRL levels for human health have never been studied. A clinical state of "PRL deficiency" has not been defined except in relation to lactation. Using data from the European Male Ageing Study (EMAS), we analyzed the distribution of PRL in 3,369 community-dwelling European men, aged 40-80 years at phase-1 and free from acute illnesses. In total, 2,948 and 2,644 PRL samples were collected during phase-1 and phase-2 (3 to 5.7 years later). All samples were analysed in the same centre with the same assay. After excluding individuals with known pituitary diseases, PRL ≥ 35 ng/ml, and PRL-altering drugs including antipsychotic agents, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, or dopamine agonists, 5,086 data points (2,845 in phase-1 and 2,241 in phase-2) were available for analysis. The results showed that PRL declined minimally with age (slope = -0.02) and did not correlate with BMI. The positively skewed PRL distribution was log-transformed to a symmetrical distribution (skewness reduced from 13.3 to 0.015). Using two-sigma empirical rule (2[]SD about the mean), a threshold at 2.5% of the lower end of the distribution was shown to correspond to a PRL value of 2.98ng/ml. With reference to individuals with PRL levels of 5-34.9 ng/ml (event rate = 6.3%), the adjusted risk of developing type 2 diabetes increased progressively in those with PRL levels of 3-4.9 ng/ml: event rate = 9.3%, OR (95% CI) 1.59 (0.93-2.71), and more so with PRL levels of 0.3-2.9 ng/ml: event rate = 22.7%, OR 5.45 (1.78-16.62). There was also an increasing trend in prediabetes and diabetes based on fasting blood glucose levels was observed with lower categories of PRL. However, PRL levels were not associated with cancer, cardiovascular diseases, depressive symptoms or mortality. Our findings suggest that a PRL level below 3 ng/ml (64 mlU/l) significantly identifies European men with a clinically-important outcome (of type 2 diabetes), offering a lower reference-value for research and clinical practice.

Low thiamine status in adults following low-carbohydrate / ketogenic diets: a cross-sectional comparative study of micronutrient intake and status.

BACKGROUND: Low-carbohydrate diets (LCD) are popular for weight loss but lack evidence about micronutrient sufficiency in real-life use. This study assessed the intake and biochemical status of selected micronutrients in people voluntarily following LCDs. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted (2018-20) among 98 adults recruited as self-reporting either LCD (n = 49) or diets not restricting carbohydrates (controls; n = 49). Diets were assessed using the 130-item EPIC-Norfolk food-frequency questionnaire. Red-blood-cell thiamine diphosphate (TDP) was measured for thiamine status using HPLC. Plasma magnesium, zinc, copper, and selenium were measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Between-group biomarker comparisons were conducted using ANCOVA and adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes status. RESULTS: LCD-followers (26% male, median age 36 years, median BMI 24.2 kg/m2) reported adhering to LCDs for a median duration of 9 months (IQR 4-36). The most followed LCD type was 'their own variations of LCD' (30%), followed by ketogenic (23%), 'palaeolithic' (15%), and Atkins diets (8%). Among controls, 41% were male (median age 27 years, median BMI 23 kg/m2). Median macronutrient intakes for LCD vs control groups were carbohydrate 16%Energy (E) vs. 50%E; protein 25%E vs. 19%E; and fat 55%E vs 34%E (saturated fat 18%E vs. 11%E). Two-thirds of LCD followers (32/49) and half of the controls (24/49) reported some use of dietary supplements (p = 0.19). Among LCD-followers, assessing from food data only, 21 (43%) failed to meet the reference nutrient intake (RNI) for thiamine (vs.14% controls, p = 0.002). When thiamine from supplementation (single- or multivitamin) was included, there appeared to be no difference in thiamine intake between groups. Still, red-blood-cell TDP was lower in LCD-followers than controls (407 ± 91 vs. 633 ± 234 ng/gHb, p < 0.001). Three LCD-followers were thiamine-deficient (RBC thiamine < 275 ng/gHb) vs. one control. There were no significant differences in dietary intakes or plasma concentrations of magnesium, zinc, copper, and selenium between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Following LCDs is associated with lower thiamine intake and TDP status than diets without carbohydrate restriction, incompletely corrected by supplement use. These data, coupled with a lack of RCT evidence on body weight control, do not support recommending LCDs for weight management without appropriate guidance and diet supplementation.

Appetite and its Regulation: Are there Palatable Interventions for Heart Failure?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Obesity is a major driver of heart failure (HF) incidence, and aggravates its pathophysiology. We summarized key reported and ongoing randomized clinical trials of appetite regulation and/or dietary energy restriction in individuals with HF. RECENT FINDINGS: Weight loss can be achieved by structured supervised diet programs with behavioural change, medications, or surgery. The new glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists alone or in combination with other agents (e.g., glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide and glucagon receptor agonists or amylin analogues) potently and sustainably reduce appetite, and, taken together with dietary advice, can produce substantial, life-changing, weight loss approaching that achieved by surgery. To date, data from the STEP-HFpEF trial show meaningful improvements in health status (Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire). Effective weight management could relieve several drivers of HF, to complement the existing treatments for HF with both reduced and preserved ejection fraction. Further trials of weight loss interventions will provide more definitive evidence to understand their effects on clinical events in patients with HF.

Physical activity, inactivity and sleep during the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

AIMS: As sustained weight loss is vital for achieving remission of type 2 diabetes, we explored whether randomisation to weight loss plus maintenance in the DiRECT trial was associated with physical activity, inactivity or sleep. METHODS: Participants were randomised to either a dietary weight management programme or best-practice care. The weight management group were encouraged to increase daily physical activity to their sustainable maximum. Objective measurement was achieved using a wrist-worn GENEActiv accelerometer for 7 days at baseline, 12 and 24 months in both groups. RESULTS: Despite average weight loss of 10 kg at 12 months in the intervention (n = 66) group, there were no differences in total physical activity or inactivity compared with the control (n = 104) at any time point. However, in our exploratory analysis, those who lost more than 10% of their baseline body weight performed on average 11 mins/day more light activity than the <10% group at 24 months (p = 0.033) and had significantly lower bouts of Inactivity30min (interaction, p = 0.005) across 12 and 24 months. At 24 months, the ≥10% group had higher daily acceleration (38.5 ± 12.1 vs. 33.2 ± 11.1 mg, p = 0.020), and higher accelerations in the most active 5-hour period (59.4 ± 21.8 vs. 50.6 ± 18.3 mg, p = 0.023). Wakefulness after sleep onset decreased in the intervention group compared with the control group and also in the ≥10% weight loss group at 12 and 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: Randomisation to a successful intensive weight loss intervention, including regular physical activity encouragement, was not associated with increased physical activity although sleep parameters improved. Physical activity was greater, and night-time waking reduced in those who maintained >10% weight loss at 12 and 24 months. TRIAL REGISTRATION ISRCTN03267836.

Challenges in obtaining accurate anthropometric measures for adults with severe obesity: A community-based study.

AIMS: The number of people with severe obesity (BMI ⩾40 kg/m2) is increasing rapidly, but is poorly documented, partly as a result of inappropriate standard anthropometric measurement methods for community-based people. METHODS: As part of a broader study, people receiving care services and with severe obesity were visited at home. The people were assessed for measurements using different weighing scales and a standard portable stadiometer. If the stadiometer could not be used, their half arm span and knee height were measured to estimate their height using standard predictive equations. RESULTS: Measurements were taken for 15 women and 10 men (n = 25) aged 40-87 years (mean 62 years). Weights ranged from 98.4 to 211.8 kg (mean 150 kg), with 16 participants requiring bariatric scales. For the six people who were unable to stand, we used wheelchair scales (n = 1), bed weighing scales (n = 2), routine weights from care home records (n = 2) or weight data from hospital records (n = 1). The standard portable stadiometer could only be used for one person; the others required alternative measures from which to estimate height. Large body habitus obscured bony landmarks, meaning alternative measures gave diverse heights. Fourteen participants had a ⩾8 cm difference in height between estimates from half arm span and knee height measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Standard practice commonly does not provide reliable measurements for people with severe obesity, particularly those with mobility difficulties. An inability to measure weight and height accurately can exclude people from appropriate care, obscuring the true numbers affected and the effectiveness of future service planning. Safe community care requires the availability of specialist scales and standardised methods for height estimation appropriate for older and disabled people with severe obesity.

Diets for weight management in adults with type 2 diabetes: an umbrella review of published meta-analyses and systematic review of trials of diets for diabetes remission.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Weight reduction is fundamental for type 2 diabetes management and remission, but uncertainty exists over which diet type is best to achieve and maintain weight loss. We evaluated dietary approaches for weight loss, and remission, in people with type 2 diabetes to inform practice and clinical guidelines. METHODS: First, we conducted a systematic review of published meta-analyses of RCTs of weight-loss diets. We searched MEDLINE (Ovid), PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, up to 7 May 2021. We synthesised weight loss findings stratified by diet types and assessed meta-analyses quality with A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) 2. We assessed certainty of pooled results of each meta-analysis using Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) (PROSPERO CRD42020169258). Second, we conducted a systematic review of any intervention studies reporting type 2 diabetes remission with weight-loss diets, in MEDLINE (via PubMed), Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, up to 10 May 2021. Findings were synthesised by diet type and study quality (Cochrane Risk of Bias tool 2.0 and Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions [ROBINS-I]), with GRADE applied (PROSPERO CRD42020208878). RESULTS: We identified 19 meta-analyses of weight-loss diets, involving 2-23 primary trials (n = 100-1587), published 2013-2021. Twelve were 'critically low' or 'low' AMSTAR 2 quality, with seven 'high' quality. Greatest weight loss was reported with very low energy diets, 1.7-2.1 MJ/day (400-500 kcal) for 8-12 weeks (high-quality meta-analysis, GRADE low), achieving 6.6 kg (95% CI -9.5, -3.7) greater weight loss than low-energy diets (4.2-6.3 MJ/day [1000-1500 kcal]). Formula meal replacements (high quality, GRADE moderate) achieved 2.4 kg (95% CI -3.3, -1.4) greater weight loss over 12-52 weeks. Low-carbohydrate diets were no better for weight loss than higher-carbohydrate/low-fat diets (high quality, GRADE high). High-protein, Mediterranean, high-monounsaturated-fatty-acid, vegetarian and low-glycaemic-index diets all achieved minimal (0.3-2 kg) or no difference from control diets (low to critically low quality, GRADE very low/moderate). For type 2 diabetes remission, of 373 records, 16 met inclusion criteria. Remissions at 1 year were reported for a median 54% of participants in RCTs including initial low-energy total diet replacement (low-risk-of-bias study, GRADE high), and 11% and 15% for meal replacements and Mediterranean diets, respectively (some concerns for risk of bias in studies, GRADE moderate/low). For ketogenic/very low-carbohydrate and very low-energy food-based diets, the evidence for remission (20% and 22%, respectively) has serious and critical risk of bias, and GRADE certainty is very low. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Published meta-analyses of hypocaloric diets for weight management in people with type 2 diabetes do not support any particular macronutrient profile or style over others. Very low energy diets and formula meal replacement appear the most effective approaches, generally providing less energy than self-administered food-based diets. Programmes including a hypocaloric formula 'total diet replacement' induction phase were most effective for type 2 diabetes remission. Most of the evidence is restricted to 1 year or less. Well-conducted research is needed to assess longer-term impacts on weight, glycaemic control, clinical outcomes and diabetes complications.

Sex differences in intraorgan fat levels and hepatic lipid metabolism: implications for cardiovascular health and remission of type 2 diabetes after dietary weight loss.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Type 2 diabetes confers a greater relative increase in CVD risk in women compared with men. We examined sex differences in intraorgan fat and hepatic VLDL1-triacylglycerol (VLDL1-TG) export before and after major dietary weight loss. METHODS: A group with type 2 diabetes (n = 64, 30 male/34 female) and a group of healthy individuals (n = 25, 13 male/12 female) were studied. Intraorgan and visceral fat were quantified by magnetic resonance and VLDL1-TG export by intralipid infusion techniques. RESULTS: Triacylglycerol content of the liver and pancreas was elevated in people with diabetes with no sex differences (liver 16.4% [9.3-25.0%] in women vs 11.9% [7.0-23.1%] in men, p = 0.57, and pancreas 8.3 ± 0.5% vs 8.5 ± 0.4%, p = 0.83, respectively). In the absence of diabetes, fat levels in both organs were lower in women than men (1.0% [0.9-1.7%] vs 4.5% [1.9-8.0%], p = 0.005, and 4.7 ± 0.4% vs 7.6 ± 0.5%, p< 0.0001, respectively). Women with diabetes had higher hepatic VLDL1-TG production rate and plasma VLDL1-TG than healthy women (559.3 ± 32.9 vs 403.2 ± 45.7 mg kg-1 day-1, p = 0.01, and 0.45 [0.26-0.77] vs 0.25 [0.13-0.33] mmol/l, p = 0.02), whereas there were no differences in men (548.8 ± 39.8 vs 506.7 ± 29.2 mg kg-1 day-1, p = 0.34, and 0.72 [0.53-1.15] vs 0.50 [0.32-0.68] mmol/l, p = 0.26). Weight loss decreased intraorgan fat and VLDL1-TG production rates regardless of sex, and these changes were accompanied by similar rates of diabetes remission (65.4% vs 71.0%) and CVD risk reduction (59.8% vs 41.5%) in women and men, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In type 2 diabetes, women have liver and pancreas fat levels as high as those of men, associated with raised hepatic VLDL1-TG production rates. Dynamics of triacylglycerol turnover differ between sexes in type 2 diabetes and following weight loss. These changes may contribute to the disproportionately raised cardiovascular risk of women with diabetes.

Participant experiences in the Diabetes REmission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

INTRODUCTION: The Diabetes REmission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) has shown that sustained remission of type 2 diabetes in primary care is achievable through weight loss using total diet replacement (TDR) with continued behavioural support. Understanding participants' experiences can help optimise the intervention, support implementation into healthcare, and understand the process of behaviour change. METHODS: Thirty-four DiRECT participants were recruited into this embedded qualitative evaluation study. In-person and telephone interviews were conducted before the TDR; at week 6-8 of the TDR; 2 weeks into food reintroduction (FR); and at 1 year, to learn about participant experiences with the programme. Transcribed narratives were analysed thematically, and we used interpretation to develop overarching themes. RESULTS: Initiation of the TDR and transition to FR were challenging and required increased behavioural support. In general, adhering to TDR proved easier than the participants had anticipated. Some participants chose the optional extension of TDR. Rapid weight loss and changes in diabetes markers provided ongoing motivation. Further weight loss, behavioural support and occasional use of TDR facilitated weight loss maintenance (WLM). A process of behaviour adaptation to change following regime disruption was identified in three stages: (1) expectations of the new, (2) overcoming difficulties with adherence, and (3) acceptance of continuous effort and establishment of routines. CONCLUSIONS: The DiRECT intervention was acceptable and regularity, continuity, and tailoring of behavioural support was instrumental in its implementation in primary care. The adaptation process accounts for some of the individual variability of experiences with the intervention and highlights the need for programme flexibility.

Antihypertensive medication needs and blood pressure control with weight loss in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of a planned therapeutic withdrawal of all antihypertensive and diuretic medications, on commencing a formula low-energy diet replacement, targeting remission of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Post hoc analysis of changes in BP, antihypertensive medication prescriptions and symptoms during the initial total diet replacement phase was performed in the intervention arm of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (n = 143) and in the subset (n = 69) who discontinued antihypertensive medications at the start of total diet replacement. The Counterweight-Plus total diet replacement provided about 3470 kJ/day (830 kcal) with automatic reductions in all nutrients, including sodium, to achieve marked negative energy balance and rapid weight loss over 12-20 weeks, with regular BP monitoring and an antihypertensive reintroduction protocol based on current clinical guidelines. RESULTS: Of 143 intervention group participants who commenced total diet replacement, 78 (55%) were on treatment for hypertension at baseline. The overall mean BP fell significantly from the start of total diet replacement (week 1) and was significantly lower at week 20, after total diet replacement finished, and also at 12 and 24 months. Of the 78 participants previously on treatment for hypertension, 65 (83%) stopped all antihypertensive and diuretic medications as per protocol, and four (5%) stopped some drugs. These 69 participants experienced no immediate (within the first week) change in BP, but their mean BP fell significantly from 9 weeks. No excessive rises in BP were recorded in individuals, but antihypertensive medications were reintroduced during total diet replacement to manage raised BP for 19/69 (27.5%) participants, mostly within the first 3-7 weeks, despite some weight loss. Reintroduction of antihypertensive medications was necessary for 5/19 participants previously on one drug, and for 14/19 previously on two or more drugs. Of the 69 who stopped antihypertensives, 19 (28%) remained off medications at 24 months. Among the 53 participants who achieved sustained remissions of diabetes at 24 months (with a mean weight loss of 11.4 kg), 31 had been previously treated for hypertension. Twenty-seven stopped medication at baseline, and 15/27 required reintroduction of antihypertensive medications. Mild to moderate dizziness, suggesting some postural hypotension, was reported during total diet replacement by 51 participants, 15 of whom had recorded dizziness at baseline prior to starting total diet replacement, with nine of these on antihypertensive or diuretic medications. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Replacing antihypertensive medications with a 3470 kJ/day (830 kcal) diet to induce weight loss reduces BP substantially and may increase mild dizziness. It is safe to stop antihypertensives, but BP should be monitored regularly, particularly for those taking two or more antihypertensives, as over two-thirds will require reintroduction of some medications. Long-term support to maintain weight loss is vital. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry, number 03267836.

Estimating and reporting treatment effects in clinical trials for weight management: using estimands to interpret effects of intercurrent events and missing data.

In the approval process for new weight management therapies, regulators typically require estimates of effect size. Usually, as with other drug evaluations, the placebo-adjusted treatment effect (i.e., the difference between weight losses with pharmacotherapy and placebo, when given as an adjunct to lifestyle intervention) is provided from data in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). At first glance, this may seem appropriate and straightforward. However, weight loss is not a simple direct drug effect, but is also mediated by other factors such as changes in diet and physical activity. Interpreting observed differences between treatment arms in weight management RCTs can be challenging; intercurrent events that occur after treatment initiation may affect the interpretation of results at the end of treatment. Utilizing estimands helps to address these uncertainties and improve transparency in clinical trial reporting by better matching the treatment-effect estimates to the scientific and/or clinical questions of interest. Estimands aim to provide an indication of trial outcomes that might be expected in the same patients under different conditions. This article reviews how intercurrent events during weight management trials can influence placebo-adjusted treatment effects, depending on how they are accounted for and how missing data are handled. The most appropriate method for statistical analysis is also discussed, including assessment of the last observation carried forward approach, and more recent methods, such as multiple imputation and mixed models for repeated measures. The use of each of these approaches, and that of estimands, is discussed in the context of the SCALE phase 3a and 3b RCTs evaluating the effect of liraglutide 3.0 mg for the treatment of obesity.

Banting Memorial Lecture 2021-Banting, banting, banter and bravado: Convictions meet evidence in the scientific process: Diabetes UK Professional Conference, 27 April 2021.

This personal account presents some glimpses into the clinical research processes which have made radical changes to our understanding of disease and treatment, and some characteristics of researchers, drawn from history and personal experiences around obesity and type 2 diabetes. Some summary messages emerge: The history of clinical diabetes research has shown how, perhaps through skilful leadership, combining very different personalities, skills and motivation can solve great challenges: Type 2 diabetes is a primary nutritional disease, secondary to the disease-process of obesity, not a primary endocrine disease. Type 2 diabetes is a manifestation of the disease-process of obesity, revealed by weight gain in people with underlying metabolic syndrome genetics/diathesis, mediated in large part at least by reversible ectopic fat accumulation impairing function of organs (liver, pancreas, brown adipose tissue). Treat overweight/obesity more seriously (defined as a disease-process with multiple organ-specific complications-not as a disease-state or BMI cut-off). Discuss the complications and risks of T2D openly: remission is as important as for cancers. Offer and support an optimal dietary weight management program as soon as possible from diagnosis, specifically aiming for remission: (a) Warn against non-evidence-based programs that look similar or claim to have similar potential: we have fully evidence-based programs; (b) Target sustained loss of >15 kg for Europeans (possibly less, e.g. >10 kg for Asians?). Increase future research support to enhance long-term weight loss maintenance. Several approaches need consideration: (a) Personalise diet compositions (recognising there is no intrinsic advantage from different carbohydrate/fat content). (b) Novel diet strategies (e.g. 5:2, time-restricted, flexible diet compositions). (c) New pharmaceutical agents as adjuncts to diet if necessary. (d) Novel food supplements to increase endogenous GLP-1 secretion.

Brief formula low-energy-diet for relapse management during weight loss maintenance in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

BACKGROUND: Weight loss maintenance (WLM) is critical for sustaining type 2 diabetes (T2D) remission, but poorly evidenced. We evaluated brief return to formula low-energy-diet (LED) as relapse treatments (RTs) during the WLM phase of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT). METHODS: This post-hoc evaluation included all participants commencing the WLM phase of DiRECT. The protocol offered RT when regain of >2 kg occurred. RESULTS: In total, 123/149 (83%) DiRECT intervention participants commenced the WLM phase after 26 (17%) had withdrawn prior to the WLM phase. Most participants [99/123 (80%)] regained >2 kg during the WLM phase, among whom 60/99 (61%) were recorded as using RT and 39/99 (39%) not using any RT. At baseline, RT users had a higher mean (SD) body mass index [35.8 (4.9) kg m-2 vs. 33.8 (3.9) kg m-2 , p = 0.0231] and had greater social deprivation (P = 0.0003) than non-users, although otherwise the groups were similar. Weight loss ≥ 2k g was achieved in 30/93 (32%) of RT attempts. At 2 years, those regaining >2 kg and using RT (n = 60) had mean (SD) weight losses of 7.4 (6.1) kg, with 25 (42%) remissions and 7 (12%) programme withdrawals. Those regaining >2 kg but not using RT (n = 39) had weight losses of 8.8 (6.0) kg, with 21 (54%) remissions and 4 (10%) programme withdrawals (all not significant). Twelve participants were never recorded as having regained >2 kg or using RTs and, at 2 years, their weight losses were 12.9 (9.2) kg, with 4 (33%) remissions and 8 (67%) programme withdrawals. CONCLUSIONS: Most people with T2D experience weight regain >2 kg during the 2 years after substantial weight loss with a LED. Only one-third of RTs corrected their 2-kg regain, resulting in similar weight losses, remissions and programme withdrawals at 2 years compared to those not using RTs; however, both groups had weight losses below those not recorded as regaining >2 kg during WLM.

Type 2 diabetes remission: 2 year within-trial and lifetime-horizon cost-effectiveness of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)/Counterweight-Plus weight management programme.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Approximately 10% of total healthcare budgets worldwide are spent on treating diabetes and its complications, and budgets are increasing globally because of ageing populations and more expensive second-line medications. The aims of the study were to estimate the within-trial and lifetime cost-effectiveness of the weight management programme, which achieved 46% remissions of type 2 diabetes at year 1 and 36% at year 2 in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT). METHODS: Within-trial analysis assessed costs of the Counterweight-Plus intervention in DiRECT (including training, programme materials, practitioner appointments and low-energy diet), along with glucose-lowering and antihypertensive medications, and all routine healthcare contacts. Lifetime cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was estimated according to projected durations of remissions, assuming continued relapse rates as seen in year 2 of DiRECT and consequent life expectancy, quality of life and healthcare costs. RESULTS: Mean total 2 year healthcare costs for the intervention and control groups were £3036 and £2420, respectively: an incremental cost of £616 (95% CI -£45, £1269). Intervention costs (£1411; 95% CI £1308, £1511) were partially offset by lower other healthcare costs (£796; 95% CI £150, £1465), including reduced oral glucose-lowering medications by £231 (95% CI £148, £314). Net remission at 2 years was 32.3% (95% CI 23.5%, 40.3%), and cost per remission achieved was £1907 (lower 95% CI: intervention dominates; upper 95% CI: £4212). Over a lifetime horizon, the intervention was modelled to achieve a mean 0.06 (95% CI 0.04, 0.09) QALY gain for the DiRECT population and mean total lifetime cost savings per participant of £1337 (95% CI £674, £2081), with the intervention becoming cost-saving within 6 years. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Incorporating the lifetime healthcare cost savings due to periods of remission from diabetes and its complications, the DiRECT intervention is predicted to be both more effective (QALY gain) and cost-saving in adults with type 2 diabetes compared with standard care. This conclusion appears robust to various less favourable model scenarios, providing strong evidence that resources could be shifted cost-effectively to support achieving remissions with the DiRECT intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN03267836 Graphical abstract.

Weight loss-induced increase in fasting ghrelin concentration is a predictor of weight regain: Evidence from the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

AIM: To investigate whether appetite-related hormones were predictors of weight regain in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: DiRECT is a cluster-randomized clinical trial, designed to assess the effect of weight loss on type 2 diabetes remission. For this post hoc analysis, data were available for 253 (147 interventions, 106 controls) individuals with type 2 diabetes (age 53.6 ± 7.5 years, body mass index 34.7 ± 4.4 kg/m2 , 59% men). Intervention participants received a 24-month weight management programme, and controls remained on usual diabetes care. Fasting plasma concentrations of leptin, ghrelin, glucagon-like peptide-1 and peptide YY were measured at baseline, 12 months and 24 months in all participants, and at 5 months in a subset of participants in the intervention (n = 56) and control groups (n = 22). Potential predictors were examined using multivariable linear regression models. RESULTS: The intervention group lost 14.3 ± 6.0% body weight at 5 months but regained weight over time, with weight losses of 10.0 ± 7.5% at 12 months and 7.6 ± 6.3% at 24 months. Weight loss in controls was 1.1 ± 3.7% and 2.1 ± 5.0% at 12 and 24 months, respectively. Body weight increased by 2.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.4, 4.1; P = 0.019) between 12 and 24 months for every 1-ng/mL increase in ghrelin between baseline and 12 months, and weight regain between 12 and 24 months was increased by 1.1% (95% CI 0.2, 2.0; P = 0.023) body weight for every 1-ng/mL increase in ghrelin at 12 months. CONCLUSION: The rise in ghrelin (but not any other measured hormone) during diet-induced weight loss was a predictor of weight regain during follow-up, and concentrations remained elevated over time, suggesting a small but significant compensatory drive to regain weight. Attenuating the effects of ghrelin may improve weight-loss maintenance.

Lower carbohydrate and higher fat intakes are associated with higher hemoglobin A1c: findings from the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008-2016.

PURPOSE: Evidence of low-carbohydrate, high-fat diets (LCHF) for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) prevention is scarce. We investigated how carbohydrate intake relates to HbA1c and T2DM prevalence in a nationally representative survey dataset. METHODS: We analyzed dietary information (4-day food diaries) from 3234 individuals aged ≥ 16 years, in eight waves of the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008-2016). We calculated LCHF scores (0-20, higher score indicating lower  %food energy from carbohydrate, with reciprocal higher contribution from fat) and UK Dietary Reference Value (DRV) scores (0-16, based on UK dietary recommendations). Associations between macronutrients and diet scores and diabetes prevalence were analyzed (in the whole sample) using multivariate logistic regression. Among those without diabetes, analyses between exposures and %HbA1c (continuous) were analyzed using multivariate linear regression. All analyses were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, smoking status, total energy intake, socioeconomic status and survey years. RESULTS: In the overall study sample, 194 (6.0%) had diabetes. Mean intake was 48.0%E for carbohydrates, and 34.9%E for total fat. Every 5%E decrease in carbohydrate, and every 5%E increase in fat, was associated with 12% (95% CI 0.78-0.99; P = 0.03) and 17% (95% CI 1.02-1.33; P = 0.02) higher odds of diabetes, respectively. Each two-point increase in LCHF score is related to 8% (95% CI 1.02-1.14; P = 0.006) higher odds of diabetes, while there was no evidence for association between DRV score and diabetes. Among the participants without diagnosed diabetes (n = 3130), every 5%E decrease in carbohydrate was associated with higher %HbA1c by + 0.016% (95% CI 0.004-0.029; P = 0.012), whereas every 5%E increase in fat was associated with higher  %HbA1c by + 0.029% (95% CI 0.015-0.043; P < 0.001). Each two-point increase in LCHF score is related to higher  %HbA1c by + 0.010% (0.1 mmol/mol), while each two-point increase in the DRV score is related to lower  %HbA1c by - 0.023% (0.23 mmol/mol). CONCLUSIONS: Lower carbohydrate and higher fat intakes were associated with higher HbA1c and greater odds of having diabetes. These data do not support low(er) carbohydrate diets for diabetes prevention.

Attenuation of the association between sugar-sweetened beverages and diabetes risk by adiposity adjustment: a secondary analysis of national health survey data.

PURPOSE: While weight gain and obesity are the dominant factors, dietary sugar and specifically sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) has been implicated in causing type 2 diabetes (T2DM). We assessed how much of the apparent effect of SSB is explained by adiposity, but not captured by adjustment for BMI, which is a poor index of body fat. METHODS: We examined data from 5187 adults (mean age 50.8 years, SD = 16.4, 172 (3.3%) T2DM), from the Scottish Health Survey 2003 and 2008-2010 databases. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between SSB consumption and T2DM (non-insulin treated) and its attenuation (reduction in odds ratios, ORs), after entering published anthropometric indices of adiposity into the regression model, adjusted for age, sex, social class, education, smoking, alcohol consumption and physical activity. RESULTS: Compared with low SSB categories ("less often/never", once/week or 1-3 times/month), the OR without adiposity adjustment for having T2DM in high SSB consumers (2-3, 4-5, ≥ 6/day) was 2.56 (95% CI 1.12-5.83; p = 0.026). That OR was marginally changed by adjusting for BMI (+ 4.3%), WC (+ 5.5%) or total body fat (- 4.3%), but greatly attenuated by adjusting for estimated %body fat (- 23.4%). These indices had similar influences on the associations between SSB and T2DM combining known T2DM patients with unknown HbA1c > 6.5%, > 48 mmol/mol. CONCLUSIONS: Associations between SSB and T2DM are attenuated more markedly by adjustment with estimated %body fat than with BMI, indicating an adiposity effect not captured using BMI. Future research should employ best available estimates of adiposity.

Predictive model of length of stay in hospital among older patients.

BACKGROUND: Most National Health Service (NHS) hospital bed occupants are older patients because of their frequent admissions and prolonged length of stay (LOS). We evaluated demographic and clinical factors as predictors of LOS in a single NHS Trust and derived an equation to estimate LOS. METHODS: Stepwise logistic and linear regressions were used to predict prolonged LOS (upper-quintile LOS > 17 days) and LOS respectively, from demographic factors and acute and pre-existing conditions. RESULTS: Of 374 (men:women = 127:247) admitted patients (20% to orthogeriatric, 69% to general medical and 11% to surgical wards), median age of 85 years (IQR = 78-90), 77 had acute first hip fracture; 297 had previous hip fracture (median time since previous fracture = 2.4 years) and 21 (7.1%) had recurrent hip fracture, with median time since first fracture = 2.4 years. Median LOS was 6.5 days (IQR = 1.8-14.8), and 38 (10.2%) died after 4.8 days (IQR = 1.6-14.3). Prolonged LOS was associated with discharge to places other than usual residence: OR = 3.1 (95% CI 1.7-5.7), acute stroke: OR = 10.1 (3.7-26.7), acute first hip fractures: OR = 6.8 (3.1-14.8), recurrent hip fractures: OR = 9.5 (3.2-28.7), urinary tract infection/pneumonia: OR = 4.0 (2.1-8.0), other acute fractures: OR = 9.8 (3.0-32.3) and malignancy: OR = 15.0 (3.1-71.8). Predictive equation showed estimated LOS was 11.6 days for discharge to places other than usual residence, 15 days for pre-existing or acute stroke, 9-14 days for acute and recurrent hip fractures, infections, other acute fractures and malignancy; these factors together explained 32% of variability in LOS. CONCLUSIONS: A useful estimate of outcome and LOS can be made by constructing a predictive equation from information on hospital admission, to provide evidence-based guidance for resource requirements and discharge planning.