Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission.

To aid understanding of the effect of antiviral treatment on population-level influenza transmission, we used a novel pharmacokinetic-viral kinetic transmission model to test the correlation between nasal viral load and infectiousness, and to evaluate the impact that timing of treatment with the antivirals oseltamivir or baloxavir has on influenza transmission. The model was run under three candidate profiles whereby infectiousness was assumed to be proportional to viral titer on a natural-scale, log-scale, or dose-response model. Viral kinetic profiles in the presence and absence of antiviral treatment were compared for each individual (N = 1000 simulated individuals); subsequently, viral transmission mitigation was calculated. The predicted transmission mitigation was greater with earlier administration of antiviral treatment, and with baloxavir versus oseltamivir. When treatment was initiated 12-24 hours post symptom onset, the predicted transmission mitigation was 39.9-56.4% for baloxavir and 26.6-38.3% for oseltamivir depending on the infectiousness profile. When treatment was initiated 36-48 hours post symptom onset, the predicted transmission mitigation decreased to 0.8-28.3% for baloxavir and 0.8-19.9% for oseltamivir. Model estimates were compared with clinical data from the BLOCKSTONE post-exposure prophylaxis study, which indicated the log-scale model for infectiousness best fit the observed data and that baloxavir affords greater reductions in secondary case rates compared with neuraminidase inhibitors. These findings suggest a role for baloxavir and oseltamivir in reducing influenza transmission when treatment is initiated within 48 hours of symptom onset in the index patient.

Reducing Influenza Virus Transmission: The Potential Value of Antiviral Treatment.

Prompt antiviral treatment has the potential to reduce influenza virus transmission to close contacts, but rigorous data on the magnitude of treatment effects on transmission are limited. Animal model data indicate that rapid reductions in viral replication after antiviral treatment reduce the risk of transmission. Observational and clinical trial data with oseltamivir and other neuraminidase inhibitors indicate that prompt treatment of household index patients seems to reduce the risk of illness in contacts, although the magnitude of the reported effects has varied widely across studies. In addition, the potential risk of transmitting drug-resistant variants exists with all approved classes of influenza antivirals. A controlled trial examining baloxavir treatment efficacy to reduce transmission, including the risk of transmitting virus with reduced baloxavir susceptibility, is currently in progress. If reduced transmission risk is confirmed, modeling studies indicate that early treatment could have major epidemiologic benefits in seasonal and pandemic influenza.

Clinical Study of Single-Stranded Oligonucleotide RO7062931 in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: RO7062931 is an N-acetylgalactosamine (GalNAc)-conjugated single-stranded locked nucleic acid oligonucleotide complementary to HBV RNA. GalNAc conjugation targets the liver through the asialoglycoprotein receptor (ASGPR). This two-part phase 1 study evaluated the safety, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics of RO7062931 in healthy volunteers and patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who were virologically suppressed. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Part 1 was a single ascending dose study in healthy volunteers randomized to receive a single RO7062931 dose (0.1-4.0 mg/kg), or placebo. Part 2 was a multiple ascending dose study in patients with CHB randomized to receive RO7062931 at 0.5, 1.5, or 3.0 mg/kg or placebo every month for a total of 2 doses (Part 2a) or RO7062931 at 3.0 mg/kg every 2 weeks, 3.0 mg/kg every week (QW), or 4.0 mg/kg QW or placebo for a total of 3-5 doses (Part 2b). Sixty healthy volunteers and 59 patients received RO7062931 or placebo. The majority of adverse events (AEs) reported were mild in intensity. Common AEs included self-limiting injection site reactions and influenza-like illness. Supradose-proportional increases in RO7062931 plasma exposure and urinary excretion occurred at doses ≥3.0 mg/kg. In patients with CHB, RO7062931 resulted in dose-dependent and time-dependent reduction in HBsAg versus placebo. The greatest HBsAg declines from baseline were achieved with the 3.0 mg/kg QW dose regimen (mean nadir ~0.5 log10  IU/mL) independent of HBeAg status. CONCLUSIONS: RO7062931 is safe and well tolerated at doses up to 4.0 mg/kg QW. Supradose-proportional exposure at doses of 3.0-4.0 mg/kg was indicative of partial saturation of the ASGPR-mediated liver uptake system. Dose-dependent declines in HBsAg demonstrated target engagement with RO7062931.

Dosing regimen optimisation for oseltamivir in immunocompromised paediatric patients with influenza: Extrapolation of efficacy.

AIMS: To optimise the dosing regimen of oseltamivir for immunocompromised (IC) paediatric patients (<18 years) with influenza, we used an extrapolation approach alongside clinical data. METHODS: Efficacy was extrapolated from adult IC patients to paediatric IC patients by leveraging existing efficacy, safety, pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD), and disease-progression models of oseltamivir and oseltamivir carboxylate (OC). Data of IC paediatric patients from two studies (NV25719 and NV20234) were included in the population PK (n = 30), PK/PD analysis (n = 22) and disease modelling approach (n = 36). Simulations were performed to identify the optimal dosing regimen. RESULTS: Clearance of oseltamivir (CL) and OC (CLM ) were similar in IC and otherwise-healthy (OwH) patients <10 years, but decreased by 44.4% (95% CI: 26.8-62.0) and 49.1% (95% CI: 34.5-63.8), respectively, in IC patients aged 10-17 years versus OwH patients. There were no notable exposure-response relationships for any of the virologic PD analyses. Thus, no additional benefit was seen with oseltamivir carboxylate exposures higher than achieved with the conventional dose (75 mg twice daily, age- and weight-adjusted for children <13 years). The disease model illustrated that doses above the conventional oseltamivir dose had limited impact on viral kinetics in IC paediatric patients and a prolonged treatment duration of 10 days was favoured to limit potential viral rebound. CONCLUSION: An oseltamivir dosage recommendation (conventional dose, twice daily for 10 days) was established in IC paediatric patients with influenza, based on extrapolation of efficacy from IC adults, leveraging population PK, PK/PD, and disease modelling, whilst taking resistance and safety data into account.

What drives the dynamics of HBV RNA during treatment?

Hepatitis B virus RNA (HBV RNA)-containing particles are encapsidated pre-genomic RNA (pgRNA) detectable in chronically infected patients in addition to virions (HBV DNA) that have been suggested as a marker of the treatment efficacy. This makes promising the use of core protein allosteric modulators, such as RG7907, which disrupt the nucleocapsid assembly and profoundly reduce HBV RNA. Here, we developed a multiscale model of HBV extending the standard viral dynamic models to analyse the kinetics of HBV DNA and HBV RNA in 35 patients treated with RG7907 for 28 days. We compare the predictions with those obtained in patients treated with the nucleotide analog tenofovir. RG7907 blocked 99.3% of pgRNA encapsidation (range: 92.1%-99.9%) which led to a decline of both HBV DNA and HBV RNA. As a consequence of its mode of action, the first phase of decline of HBV RNA was rapid, uncovering the clearance of viral particles with half-life of 45 min. In contrast, HBV DNA decline was predicted to be less rapid, due to the continuous secretion of already formed viral capsids (t1/2  = 17 ± 6 h). After few days, both markers declined at the same rate, which was attributed to the loss of infected cells (t1/2  â‰… 6 ± 0.8 days). By blocking efficiently RNA reverse transcription but not its encapsidation, nucleotide analog in contrast was predicted to lead to a transient accumulation of HBV RNA both intracellularly and extracellularly. The model brings a conceptual framework for understanding the differences between HBV DNA and HBV RNA dynamics. Integration of HBV RNA in viral dynamic models may be helpful to better quantify the treatment effect, especially in viral-suppressed patients where HBV DNA is no longer detectable.

Pharmacologic effects of oseltamivir in immunocompromised adult patients as assessed by population PK/PD analysis and drug-disease modelling for dosing regimen optimization.

AIM: Pharmacologic effects were analysed to determine a dose recommendation for oseltamivir in immunocompromised (IC) adults with influenza. METHODS: Quantitative clinical pharmacology methods were applied to data from 160 adult IC patients (aged 18-78 years) from two studies (NV20234, 150 patients; NV25118, 10 patients) who received oseltamivir 75-200 mg twice daily for up to 10 days. An established population-pharmacokinetic (PK) model with additional effects on oseltamivir and oseltamivir carboxylate (OC) clearance described the PK characteristics of oseltamivir in IC patients versus otherwise healthy (OwH) patients from previous clinical trials. Estimated PK parameters were used to evaluate exposure-response relationships for virologic endpoints (time to cessation of viral shedding, viral load measures and treatment-emergent resistance). A drug-disease model characterized the viral kinetics of influenza accounting for the effect of OC on viral production. RESULTS: Oseltamivir clearance was 32.5% lower (95% confidence interval [CI], 26.1-38.8) and OC clearance was 33.7% lower (95% CI, 23.2-44.1) in IC versus OwH patients. No notable exposure-response relationships were identified for exposures higher than those achieved after conventional dose oseltamivir 75 mg, which appeared to be close to the maximum effect of oseltamivir. Simulations of the drug-disease model predicted that initiating treatment within 48 hours of symptom onset had maximum impact, and a treatment duration of 10 days was favourable over 3-5 days to limit viral rebound. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the use of conventional-dose oseltamivir 75 mg twice daily for 10 days in the treatment of IC adult patients with influenza.

A pediatric brain tumor consortium phase II trial of capecitabine rapidly disintegrating tablets with concomitant radiation therapy in children with newly diagnosed diffuse intrinsic pontine gliomas.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a phase II study of oral capecitabine rapidly disintegrating tablets given concurrently with radiation therapy (RT) to assess progression-free survival (PFS) in children with newly diagnosed diffuse intrinsic pontine gliomas (DIPG). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Children 3-17 years with newly diagnosed DIPG were eligible. Capecitabine, 650 mg/m2 /dose BID (maximum tolerated dose [MTD] in children with concurrent radiation), was administered for 9 weeks starting the first day of RT. Following a 2-week break, three courses of capecitabine, 1,250 mg/m2 /dose BID for 14 days followed by a 7-day rest, were administered. As prospectively designed, 10 evaluable patients treated at the MTD on the phase I trial were included in the phase II analyses. The design was based on comparison of the PFS distribution to a contemporary historical control (n = 140) with 90% power to detect a 15% absolute improvement in the 1-year PFS with a type-1 error rate, α = 0.10. RESULTS: Forty-four patients were evaluable for the phase II objectives. Capecitabine and RT was well tolerated with low-grade palmar plantar erythrodyesthesia, increased alanine aminotransferase, cytopenias, and vomiting the most commonly reported toxicities. Findings were significant for earlier progression with 1-year PFS of 7.21% (SE = 3.47%) in the capecitabine-treated cohort versus 15.59% (SE = 3.05%) in the historical control (P = 0.007), but there was no difference for overall survival (OS) distributions (P = 0.30). Tumor enhancement at diagnosis was associated with shorter PFS and OS. Capecitabine was rapidly absorbed and converted to its metabolites. CONCLUSION: Capecitabine did not improve the outcome for children with newly diagnosed DIPG.

Use of an integrated modelling and simulation approach to develop a simplified peginterferon alfa-2a dosing regimen for children with hepatitis C.

AIM: The aim of the study was to simplify the dosing regimen of peginterferon alfa-2a in paediatric patients with chronic hepatitis C. METHODS: A population pharmacokinetic (PK) model was developed using PK data from 14 children aged 2-8 years and 402 adults. Simulations were produced to identify a simplified dosing regimen that would provide exposures similar to those observed in the paediatric clinical trials and in the range known to be safe/efficacious in adults. Model predictions were evaluated against observed adult and paediatric data to reinforce confidence of the proposed dosing regimen. RESULTS: The final model was a two compartment model with a zero order resorption process. Covariates included a linear influence of body surface area (BSA) on apparent oral clearance (CL/F) and a linear influence of body weight on apparent volume of distribution of the central compartment (V1 /F). A simplified dosing regimen was developed which is expected to provide exposures in children aged ≥5 years similar to the dosing formula used in the paediatric clinical trial and within the range that is safe/efficacious in adults. This simplified regimen is approved in the EU and in other countries for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C in treatment-naive children/adolescents aged ≥5 years in combination with ribavirin. CONCLUSION: Pre-existing adult PK data were combined with relatively limited paediatric PK data to develop a PK model able to predict exposure in both populations adequately. This provided increased confidence in characterizing PK in children and helped in the development of a simplified dosing regimen of peginterferon alfa-2a in paediatric patients.

A drug-disease model describing the effect of oseltamivir neuraminidase inhibition on influenza virus progression.

A population drug-disease model was developed to describe the time course of influenza virus with and without oseltamivir treatment and to investigate opportunities for antiviral combination therapy. Data included viral titers from 208 subjects, across 4 studies, receiving placebo and oseltamivir at 20 to 200 mg twice daily for 5 days. A 3-compartment mathematical model, comprising target cells infected at rate ß, free virus produced at rate p and cleared at rate c, and infected cells cleared at rate δ, was implemented in NONMEM with an inhibitory Hill function on virus production (p), accounting for the oseltamivir effect. In congruence with clinical data, the model predicts that the standard 75-mg regimen initiated 2 days after infection decreased viral shedding duration by 1.5 days versus placebo; the 150-mg regimen decreased shedding by an additional average 0.25 day. The model also predicts that initiation of oseltamivir sooner postinfection, specifically at day 0.5 or 1, results in proportionally greater decreases in viral shedding duration of 5 and 3.5 days, respectively. Furthermore, the model suggests that combining oseltamivir (acting to subdue virus production rate) with an antiviral whose activity decreases viral infectivity (ß) results in a moderate additive effect dependent on therapy initiation time. In contrast, the combination of oseltamivir with an antiviral whose activity increases viral clearance (c) shows significant additive effects independent of therapy initiation time. The utility of the model for investigating the pharmacodynamic effects of novel antivirals alone or in combination on emergent influenza virus strains warrants further investigation.

The effect of mild to moderate renal impairment on the pharmacokinetics of the nucleoside analog hepatitis C virus polymerase inhibitor mericitabine.

Mericitabine is the prodrug of RO4995855, a selective inhibitor of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) NS5B polymerase. This study assessed the effect of renal impairment on RO4995855 pharmacokinetics. In this open-label study, HCV-negative volunteers (18-75 years) with normal renal function (NRF: creatinine clearance [CLCR ] >80 mL/min, n = 10) or stable renal impairment (mild: CLCR 50-80 mL/min, n = 10; moderate: CLCR 30-49 mL/min, n = 10) received oral mericitabine 1000 mg twice daily (BID) (500 mg BID for moderate renal impairment) for 5 days. Primary outcome measures were renal clearance, maximum plasma concentration (Cmax), and area under the concentration-time curve (0-12 h) (AUC0-12) for RO4995855. Renal clearance decreased as renal function decreased. Relative to subjects with NRF, the geometric mean ratios (GMR) for AUC0-12 and Cmax in mild renal impairment subjects were 1.45 (90% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-1.66) and 1.14 (1.02-1.28), respectively. For moderate renal impairment subjects, the dose-normalized GMR for AUC0-12 and Cmax relative to NRF subjects were 2.51 (90% CI, 2.19-2.88) and 1.76 (1.56-1.97), respectively. Renal clearance of RO4995855 declined in subjects with mild/moderate renal impairment following mericitabine. Dose adjustment of mericitabine may be required in patients with moderate renal impairment.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of reduced viral transmission with baloxavir marboxil versus oseltamivir or no treatment for seasonal and pandemic influenza management in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Baloxavir marboxil is an oral, single-dose, cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor that reduces the duration of influenza symptoms and rapidly stops viral shedding. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model to inform a cost-effectiveness model (CEM) of baloxavir versus oseltamivir or no antiviral treatment in the UK. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The SEIR model estimated the attack rates among otherwise healthy and high-risk individuals in seasonal and pandemic settings. The CEM assumed that a proportion of infected patients would receive antiviral treatment. Results were reported at the population level (per 10,000 at risk of infection). RESULTS: The SEIR model estimated greater reductions in infections with baloxavir. In a seasonal setting, baloxavir provided incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of £1884 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained versus oseltamivir and a dominant cost-effectiveness position versus no antiviral treatment in the total population; ICERs of £2574/QALY versus oseltamivir and £128/QALY versus no antiviral treatment were seen in the high-risk population. Baloxavir was also cost-effective versus oseltamivir or no antiviral treatment and reduced population-level health system occupancy concerns during a pandemic. CONCLUSION: Baloxavir treatment resulted in the fewest influenza cases and was cost-effective versus oseltamivir or no antiviral treatment from a UK National Health Service perspective.

Baloxavir marboxil ('baloxavir') is a prescription medicine for people who become ill with influenza (or 'the flu') that can reduce how long flu symptoms last and the likelihood of complications from the flu that may require going to the hospital. Baloxavir can also reduce the amount and duration of virus shed by infected individuals thus potentially slow or stop the flu from spreading to healthy people. We studied differences in reducing predicted flu infections between baloxavir and another flu treatment, known as oseltamivir, or no flu treatment at all. Treatment with baloxavir resulted in fewer flu infections in the UK population than oseltamivir or no treatment. We then studied how these differences might affect costs between baloxavir and oseltamivir or no treatment at a population level in the UK. Overall, in the majority of scenarios explored in the model, baloxavir was cost-effective as an antiviral treatment for people with the flu in the UK.

A Semi-mechanistic Model to Characterize the Long-Term Dynamics of Hepatitis B Virus Markers During Treatment With Lamivudine and Pegylated Interferon.

Antiviral treatments against hepatitis B virus (HBV) suppress viral replication but do not eradicate the virus, and need therefore to be taken lifelong to avoid relapse. Mathematical models can be useful to support the development of curative anti-HBV agents; however, they mostly focus on short-term HBV DNA data and neglect the complex host-pathogen interaction. This work aimed to characterize the effect of treatment with lamivudine and/or pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) in 1,300 patients (hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive and HBeAg-negative) treated for 1 year. A mathematical model was developed incorporating two populations of infected cells, namely I 1 , with a high transcriptional activity, that progressively evolve into I 2 , at a rate δ tr , representing cells with integrated HBV DNA that have a lower transcriptional activity. Parameters of the model were estimated in patients treated with lamivudine or Peg-IFN alone (N = 894), and the model was then validated in patients treated with lamivudine plus Peg-IFN (N = 436) to predict the virological response after a year of combination treatment. Lamivudine had a larger effect in blocking viral production than Peg-IFN (99.4-99.9% vs. 91.8-95.1%); however, Peg-IFN had a significant immunomodulatory effect, leading to an enhancement of the loss rates of I 1 (×1.7 in HBeAg-positive patients), I 2 (> ×7 irrespective of HBeAg status), and δ tr (×4.6 and ×2.0 in HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative patients, respectively). Using this model, we were able to describe the synergy of the different effects occurring during treatment with combination and predicted an effect of 99.99% on blocking viral production. This framework can therefore support the optimization of combination therapy with new anti-HBV agents.

How Semiphysiological Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling Incorporating Active Hepatic Uptake Supports Phase II Dose Selection of RO7049389, A Novel Anti-Hepatitis B Virus Drug.

The pharmacokinetics (PK) of RO7049389, a new hepatitis B virus (HBV) core protein allosteric modulator of class I, and of its active metabolite M5 were studied in fasted and fed conditions after single and multiple once-a-day and twice-a-day doses in healthy subjects and patients with HBV. The nonlinearity of the pharmacokinetics, the large variability, the small sample size per dose arms, the higher plasma exposure in Asians, and the heterogeneity in patient baseline characteristics seen in phase I studies made the ethnic sensitivity assessment and the selection of the recommended phase II dose difficult. A population PK model, simultaneously modeling RO7049389 and M5, was developed to characterize the complex PK, quantify ethnicity (i.e., Asian vs. non-Asian) and gender effects on the PK of RO7049389 and M5, and infer the quantity of RO7049389 in liver relative to plasma. Exposures in the liver are of particular importance for dose selection since the liver is the site of action of the compound. The model described and reproduced the population PK profiles as well as the between-subject variability of RO7049389 and its metabolite. It could show that the PK is similar between healthy subjects and in HBV patients, once the ethnicity and gender effects are accounted for. The model predicts that, despite a large difference in the plasma exposure of RO7049389 between Asians and non-Asians, the exposure in the liver is comparable, allowing the use of the same dose to treat Asian and non-Asian patients. This model provides a valuable basis to develop this new anti-HBV drug and to define optimal dosing.

Safety, pharmacokinetics, and antiviral activity of RO7049389, a core protein allosteric modulator, in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection: a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 1 trial.

BACKGROUND: RO7049389, a hepatitis B virus (HBV) core protein allosteric modulator being developed for the treatment of chronic HBV infection, was found to be safe and well tolerated in healthy participants (part 1 of this study). The objective of this proof-of-mechanism study (part 2) was to evaluate the safety, pharmacokinetics, and antiviral activity of RO7049389 in patients with chronic HBV infection. METHODS: This was a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 1 study. Patients with chronic HBV infection who were not currently on anti-HBV therapy were enrolled at 11 liver disease centres in Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Seven patients per dose cohort were randomly assigned (6:1) to receive oral administration of RO7049389 at 200 mg or 400 mg twice a day, or 200 mg, 600 mg, or 1000 mg once a day, for 4 weeks, or matching placebo. Randomisation was via interactive voice web response system-generated numbers, with study participants, investigators, and site personnel masked to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint of the study was safety of RO7049389 and its antiviral effect on HBV DNA concentration at the end of treatment, assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of study drug. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02952924. FINDINGS: Between May 21, 2017, and April 3, 2019, 62 patients were screened for eligibility, and 37 eligible patients were enrolled in five dose cohorts sequentially. All adverse events were of mild or moderate intensity. Among the 31 patients who received RO7049389, the most common adverse events were headache (in five [16%] of 31 patients), increased alanine aminotransferase (ALT; five [16%]), increased aspartate aminotransferase (AST; four [13%]), upper respiratory tract infection (four [13%]), and diarrhoea (three [10%]). The most common moderate adverse events were ALT increase (three [10%]) and AST increase (two [6%]), and there were no serious adverse events. At the end of 4 weeks treatment, mean HBV DNA declines from baseline in RO7049389-treated patients were 2·44 log10 IU/mL (SD 0·98) in the 200 mg twice a day group, 3·33 log10 IU/mL (1·14) in the 400 mg twice a day group, 3·00 log10 IU/mL (0·54) in the 200 mg once a day group, 2·86 log10 IU/mL (0·79) in the 600 mg once a day group, and 3·19 log10 IU/mL (0·33) in the 1000 mg once a day group versus 0·34 log10 IU/mL (0·54) in the pooled placebo patients. INTERPRETATION: RO7049389 was safe and well tolerated and demonstrated antiviral activity over 4 weeks of treatment in patients with chronic HBV infection. These findings support further clinical development of RO7049389 as a component of novel combination treatment regimens for patients with chronic HBV infection. FUNDING: F Hoffmann-La Roche.

Model Averaging in Viral Dynamic Models.

The paucity of experimental data makes both inference and prediction particularly challenging in viral dynamic models. In the presence of several candidate models, a common strategy is model selection (MS), in which models are fitted to the data but only results obtained with the "best model" are presented. However, this approach ignores model uncertainty, which may lead to inaccurate predictions. When several models provide a good fit to the data, another approach is model averaging (MA) that weights the predictions of each model according to its consistency to the data. Here, we evaluated by simulations in a nonlinear mixed-effect model framework the performances of MS and MA in two realistic cases of acute viral infection, i.e., (1) inference in the presence of poorly identifiable parameters, namely, initial viral inoculum and eclipse phase duration, (2) uncertainty on the mechanisms of action of the immune response. MS was associated in some scenarios with a large rate of false selection. This led to a coverage rate lower than the nominal coverage rate of 0.95 in the majority of cases and below 0.50 in some scenarios. In contrast, MA provided better estimation of parameter uncertainty, with coverage rates ranging from 0.72 to 0.98 and mostly comprised within the nominal coverage rate. Finally, MA provided similar predictions than those obtained with MS. In conclusion, parameter estimates obtained with MS should be taken with caution, especially when several models well describe the data. In this situation, MA has better performances and could be performed to account for model uncertainty.

A pharmacokinetic/viral kinetic model to evaluate treatment of chronic HCV infection with a non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitor.

BACKGROUND: Viral kinetic models have proven useful in characterizing treatment effectiveness during HCV therapy with interferon (IFN) as well as with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). METHODS: Here we use a pharmacokinetic/viral kinetic (PK/VK) model to describe HCV RNA kinetics during treatment with setrobuvir, a non-nucleosidic inhibitor of the HCV NS5B polymerase enzyme. Using PK data from three studies in healthy volunteers and PK and VK data from a Phase I study, where setrobuvir was administered for 3 days, we fitted a two-compartment PK model with first-order absorption and lag-time, an Emax pharmacodynamics model and a standard biphasic VK model. RESULTS: Setrobuvir's EC50 and Hill coefficient and the viral clearance rate were significantly different (P=0.014, P<0.001 and P=0.004, respectively) between patients infected with HCV subtypes 1b and 1a, leading to an increased viral load decline in patients infected with genotype 1b virus. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the combined effects of PK/VK on the performance of a non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitor such as setrobuvir could provide valuable insights into their use in combination with other DAAs as well as to optimize future therapy. Further, our work suggests that patients infected with subtype 1a would need higher doses than those infected with subtype 1b to achieve the same effectiveness. Whether this is true for other non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitors needs to be examined.

Are population pharmacokinetic and/or pharmacodynamic models adequately evaluated? A survey of the literature from 2002 to 2004.

Model evaluation is an important issue in population analyses. We aimed to perform a systematic review of all population pharmacokinetic and/or pharmacodynamic analyses published between 2002 and 2004 to survey the current methods used to evaluate models and to assess whether those models were adequately evaluated. We selected 324 articles in MEDLINE using defined key words and built a data abstraction form composed of a checklist of items to extract the relevant information from these articles with respect to model evaluation. In the data abstraction form, evaluation methods were divided into three subsections: basic internal methods (goodness-of-fit [GOF] plots, uncertainty in parameter estimates and model sensitivity), advanced internal methods (data splitting, resampling techniques and Monte Carlo simulations) and external model evaluation. Basic internal evaluation was the most frequently described method in the reports: 65% of the models involved GOF evaluation. Standard errors or confidence intervals were reported for 50% of fixed effects but only for 22% of random effects. Advanced internal methods were used in approximately 25% of models: data splitting was more often used than bootstrap and cross-validation; simulations were used in 6% of models to evaluate models by a visual predictive check or by a posterior predictive check. External evaluation was performed in only 7% of models. Using the subjective synthesis of model evaluation for each article, we judged the models to be adequately evaluated in 28% of pharmacokinetic models and 26% of pharmacodynamic models. Basic internal evaluation was preferred to more advanced methods, probably because the former is performed easily with most software. We also noticed that when the aim of modelling was predictive, advanced internal methods or more stringent methods were more often used.

Modelling the interaction between danoprevir and mericitabine in the treatment of chronic HCV infection.

BACKGROUND: Modelling HCV RNA decline kinetics under therapy has proven useful for characterizing treatment effectiveness. METHODS: Here we model HCV viral kinetics (VK) in 72 patients given a combination of danoprevir, a protease inhibitor, and mericitabine, a nucleoside polymerase inhibitor, for 14 days in the INFORM-1 trial. A biphasic VK model with time-varying danoprevir and mericitabine effectiveness and Bliss independence for characterizing the interaction between both drugs provided the best fit to the VK data. RESULTS: The average final antiviral effectiveness of the drug combination varied between 0.998 for 100 mg three times daily of danoprevir and 500 mg twice daily of mericitabine and 0.9998 for 600 mg twice daily of danoprevir and 1,000 mg twice daily of mericitabine. Using the individual parameters estimated from the VK data collected over 2 weeks, we were not able to reproduce the low sustained virological response rates obtained in a more recent study where patients were treated with a combination of mericitabine and ritonavir-boosted danoprevir for 24 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: This suggests that drug-resistant viruses emerge after 2 weeks of treatment and that longer studies are necessary to provide accurate predictions of longer treatment outcomes.