Nomograms to Predict Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival in Gastric Signet-Ring Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The objective of our study was to develop and validate nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with signet-ring cell carcinoma (SRCC) of the stomach. METHODS: Data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A total of 1781 patients were randomly allocated to a training set (n = 1335) and a validation set (n = 446). Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine the prognostic effect of variables. Nomograms were developed to estimate OS and CSS and assessed using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and decision curve analyses (DCA). DCA was utilized to compare the nomograms and the Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) staging system. RESULTS: Age, race, tumor size, T, N, M stage, and use of surgery and/or radiotherapy were included in the nomograms. C-indexes for OS and CSS were 0.74 and 0.75 in the training set, respectively. C-indexes for OS and CSS were 0.76 and 0.76 in the validation set. Calibration plots and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed good predictive accuracy. According to the decision curve analyses (DCA), the new model was more useful than the TNM staging system. CONCLUSIONS: We developed nomograms to predict OS and CSS in patients with SRCC of the stomach. Nomograms may be a valuable clinical supplement of the conventional TNM staging system.

Bilaterality weighs more than unilateral multifocality in predicting prognosis in papillary thyroid cancer.

Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) often presents as multifocal tumor;, however, whether multifocality is associated with poor prognosis remains controversial. The aims of this retrospective study were to identify the characteristics of PTC with multifocal tumors and evaluate the association between the location and prognosis. We reviewed the medical records of 496 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy for PTC. Patients were classified as three groups: N1 (solitary tumor), N2 (2 or more foci within unilateral lobe of thyroid), and N3 (bilateral tumors, at least one tumor focus for each lobe of thyroid). We analyzed the differences of clinicopathologic features and clinical outcomes among the three groups. Cox regression model was used to assess the relation between the different locations of multifocal tumors and prognosis. Although the differences of clinicopathologic features such as the size of tumor, extrathyroidal extension, and cervical lymph node metastasis were not significant among the three groups, the bilateral-multifocality was proved to be an independent risk factor for neck recurrence (hazard ratio (HR) = 4.052, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 2.070-7.933), distant metastasis (HR = 3.860, 95 % CI 1.507-9.884), and cancer death (HR = 7.252, 95 % 2.189-24.025). In addition, extrathyroidal extension (HR = 2.291, 95 % CI 1.185-4.427) and older age >45 years (HR = 6.721, 95 % CI 2.300-19.637) were also significant predictors for neck recurrence and cancer death, respectively. Therefore, bilateral-multifocality as an indicator for more extensive tumor location could be used to assess the risk of recurrence and mortality in PTC. Given the poor prognosis associated with bilateral-multifocality and other risk factors, aggressive therapy and intensive follow-up were recommended for PTC patients with them.

The impact of coexistent Hashimoto's thyroiditis on lymph node metastasis and prognosis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma.

The impact of coexistent Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) on lymph node metastasis (LNM) and prognosis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) remains controversial. We evaluated the association of coexistent HT with clinicopathologic parameters, LNM, and prognosis by retrospectively reviewing a series of consecutive patients treated for PTMC at Fudan University Cancer Center from January 2005 to December 2010. Of all 1,250 patients with complete data for analysis, 364 (29.1 %) had coexistent HT (HT group) and 886 patients (70.9 %) had no evidence of HT (control group). The HT group had higher proportion of female (87.9 vs 70.1 %) patients, higher mean level of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) (2.39 vs 2.00 mIU/L), and lower incidence of extrathyroidal extension (7.4 vs 11.7 %) than those in the control group. However, the incidence of LNM and recurrence was similar between the two groups, and HT was not associated with LNM and recurrence. A series of clinicopathologic factors identified for predicting LNM and recurrence in the control group did not show any prediction in the HT group. In summary, this study suggested that coexistent HT had insignificant protective effect on LNM and prognosis in PTMC, which was inconsistent with prior studies. Further studies aiming to determine novel predictors are recommended in PTMC patients with coexistent HT.

Risk prediction and clinical model building for lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma.

The surgical management of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), especially regarding the necessity of central/lateral lymph node dissection, remains controversial. This study investigated the clinicopathologic factors predictive of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients diagnosed with PTMC. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used for PTMC patients identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database who were treated by surgery between 2002 and 2012, to determine the association of clinicopathologic factors with LNM. According to the results, a total of 31,017 patients met the inclusion criteria of the study. Final histology confirmed 2,135 (6.9%) cases of N1a disease and 1,684 cases (5.4%) of N1b disease. Our multivariate logistic regression analysis identified variables associated with both central LNM and lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM), including a younger age (<45 years), male sex, non-Hispanic white and other race, classical papillary histology, larger tumor size, multifocality, and extrathyroidal extension; distant metastasis was also significantly associated with LLNM. The significant predictors identified from multivariable logistic regression were integrated into a statistical model that showed that extrathyroidal extension had maximum weight in the predictive role for LNM. LLNM was validated to be a significant risk factor for cancer-specific death in Cox regression analyses, whereas central LNM failed to predict a worse cancer-specific survival according to our data. Therefore, we suggested that central lymph node dissection could be performed in certain patients with risk factors. Given the prevalence of LLNM in PTMC, a thorough inspection of the lateral compartment is recommended in PTMC patients with risk factors for precise staging; from the viewpoint of a radical treatment for tumors, prophylactic lateral lymph node dissection that aims to remove the occult lateral lymph nodes may be an option for PTMC with risk factors. Multicenter studies with long-term follow-up are recommended to better understand the risk factors and surgical management for cervical nodes in PTMC.