Temporal and vertical dynamics of carbon accumulation potential under grazing-excluded grasslands in China: The role of soil bulk density.

Despite the progress made in understanding relevant carbon dynamics under grazing exclusion, previous studies have underestimated the role of soil bulk density (BD), and its implications for potential accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC), especially at regional scale over long term. In this study, we first constructed a database covering a vast majority of the grasslands in northwestern China based on 131 published literatures. A synthesis was then conducted by analyzing the experimental data to comprehensively investigate the mechanisms of vegetation recovery, carbon-nitrogen coupling, and the importance of changed soil BD in evaluating SOC sequestration potential. The results showed that although the recovery of vegetation height and cover were both critical for improving vegetation biomass, vegetation height required a longer recovery period. While the SOC accumulation was found to be greater in surface layers than deeper ones, it exhibited a reduced capacity for carbon sequestration and an increased risk of SOC loss. Grazing exclusion significantly reduced soil BD across different soil profiles, with the rate of change influenced by soil depth, time, geographical and climatic conditions. The potential for SOC accumulation in the top 30 cm of soil based on data of 2003-2022 was 0.78 Mg ha-1 yr-1 without considering BD effects, which was significantly underestimated compared to that of 1.16 Mg ha-1 yr-1 when BD changes were considered properly. This suggests that the efficiency of grazing exclusion in carbon sequestration and climate mitigation may have been previously underreported. Furthermore, mean annual precipitation represented the most relevant environmental factor that positively correlated to SOC accumulation, and a wetter climate may offer greater potential for carbon accumulation. Overall, this study implies grazing exclusion may play an even more critical role in carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation over long-term than previously recognized, which provides essential scientific evidence for implementing stepwise ecological restoration in grasslands.

Revealing Trade Potential for Reversing Regional Freshwater Boundary Exceedance.

Applying the planetary boundary for the freshwater framework at the regional level is important in supporting local water management but is subject to substantial uncertainty. Previous estimates have not fully investigated the potential of trade in mitigating regional freshwater boundary (RFB) exceedance. Here, we estimate RFB based on the average results of 15 different hydrological models to reduce uncertainty. We then propose a framework to divide the RFB exceedance/maintenance into contributions from both consumption and trade and further identify trade contribution into six types. We applied the framework to China's provinces, which are characterized by intensive interprovincial trade and a significant mismatch in water resource supply and demand. We found that the current trade pattern limits the role of trade to mitigate RFB exceedance. For the importing provinces exceeding RFBs, 78% of their imported goods and services came from other RFB exceeding provinces. Scenario analysis showed that relying on increased imports alone, even to its greatest extent, will not reverse RFB exceedance in most importing provinces. Increased imports, however, will have an aggregate effect on the trade partners, leading to the exceedance of the national freshwater boundary. We also found that promoting export of goods and services from non-RFB exceeding provinces and reducing their water intensity will help address the imbalance both locally and, in the aggregate, nationally.

Deceleration of China's human water use and its key drivers.

Increased human water use combined with climate change have aggravated water scarcity from the regional to global scales. However, the lack of spatially detailed datasets limits our understanding of the historical water use trend and its key drivers. Here, we present a survey-based reconstruction of China's sectoral water use in 341 prefectures during 1965 to 2013. The data indicate that water use has doubled during the entire study period, yet with a widespread slowdown of the growth rates from 10.66 km3⋅y-2 before 1975 to 6.23 km3⋅y-2 in 1975 to 1992, and further down to 3.59 km3⋅y-2 afterward. These decelerations were attributed to reduced water use intensities of irrigation and industry, which partly offset the increase driven by pronounced socioeconomic development (i.e., economic growth, population growth, and structural transitions) by 55% in 1975 to 1992 and 83% after 1992. Adoptions for highly efficient irrigation and industrial water recycling technologies explained most of the observed reduction of water use intensities across China. These findings challenge conventional views about an acceleration in water use in China and highlight the opposing roles of different drivers for water use projections.

Non-linear effects of natural and anthropogenic drivers on ecosystem services: Integrating thresholds into conservation planning.

Ecosystem services (ESs) have been widely used for ecological protection and land spatial planning. Natural and anthropogenic drivers exhibit a strong dynamic coupling relationship with ESs. However, current ESs-related research focused on mapping the ESs spatially or investing the trade-offs and synergies relationship between ES, ignoring the nonlinear response of ESs to natural and anthropogenic drivers. Here we aimed to investigate the nonlinear effect of 14 potential drivers (8 natural and 6 anthropogenic) on the total value of six typical ESs (ESV). Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) in China as an example, we established 14 constrain lines and identified critical thresholds through the restricted cubic splines (RCS) regression. We found strong non-linear impacts of natural and anthropogenic drivers on ESV and critical thresholds existed among all the 14 constrain lines. The RCS plots showed that the overall ESV was kept at a high level before or after certain thresholds (e.g., altitude >687 m, slope >13.4°, NDVI >0.7, distance from water <31.2 km, etc.). We categorized these threshold combinations and found the potentially high ES delivery areas were mainly distributed in the Yanshan Mountian, accounting for approximately 5% of the total BTH region. These critical thresholds offer a new method to delineate conservation and restoration priority areas.

Investigating the potential impact of ecological restoration strategies on people-landscape interactions through cultural ecosystem services: A case study of Xilin Gol, China.

Although cultural ecosystem services (CES) are greatly valued by diverse stakeholders, the full range of CES provided by a landscape is notoriously difficult to estimate. The resulting lack of objective norms for CES may lead to the loss of the multiple non-material factors that contribute to how a landscape is valued and experienced. This is especially true under ecological restoration, which could sharply change how people experience landscapes. Therefore, our aim in this study was to identify and analyze the CES that arise from people's interaction with their landscape, focusing specifically on the influences of different ecological restoration strategies. We carried out semi-structured interviews with the residents of villages in the Xilin Gol League, Inner Mongolia, China. Regarding the implementation of ecological restoration measures, the people living in typical pastoral zones would be most affected by these measures because their main livelihood (animal husbandry) depends strongly on grasslands. Our results demonstrated that human perception of the CES provided by landscapes is affected not only by the factors related to an individual's cultural worldview (e.g., ethnicity, age, education) but also by the utility of landscape features, which are reflected in the individual's landscape dependence (occupation). Our research provides a cultural perspective for aspects of local well-being in addition to ecological and economic targets. Understanding these other aspects is critical for implementing sustainable ecological restoration.

The impacts of China's crops trade on virtual water flow and water use sustainability of the "Belt and Road".

Since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward, the trade of crops between China and the countries have increased markedly. Agriculture is the most water-consuming sector, the trade of crops could influence national water availability via virtual water embodied in the products. In order to gain an in-depth understanding of the water use of crops traded in countries along the "Belt and Road", from the perspective of import and export of China's crops, based on the characteristics and driving factors of virtual water trade, we proposed the Water Use Potential Index (WUPI) to assess sustainability of countries and their crops, and constructed a more comprehensive virtual water trade research framework. Results showed that the import and export of virtual water in 64 countries was dominated by green virtual water content from 2001 to 2017, and China was in a virtual water trade surplus. The Association of South-East Asian Nations was China's leading importer and exporter. The level of agricultural available water resources, the proportion of the agricultural population, the scale of agricultural production and the virtual water intensity could promote the growth of virtual water trade in crops between China and countries along the "Belt and Road", while economic model and the population structure played a restraining role. In terms of water use potential, China and Kazakhstan had great sustainable water use potential for crops, and the trade structure of other countries still needed to be further optimized. Understanding the virtual water trade in crops can provide a reference for the rational planning of crop cultivation and water resource conservation.

Two-Tier Synergic Governance of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Air Pollution in China's Megacity, Shenzhen: Impact Evaluation and Policy Implication.

Making a cost-effective governance of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollution is of great importance for megacities to pursue a sustainable future. To achieve this, the present study advocates megacities to implement a two-tier synergic governance system consisting of both synergic governance between GHG and air pollutant emission reductions and between megacities and their surrounding regions. Based on the LEAP model and WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ simulation platform, this study found that climate governance of China's megacity, Shenzhen, could synergistically contribute to decreasing urban annual PM2.5 concentration by 5.6% in 2030. Using synergic governance with surrounding regions could further help cap and then quickly decrease the megacity's GHG emissions and lower its PM2.5 concentrations by an additional 11.8%. The results demonstrated the substantial effects of transdepartment and transregional synergic governance on Shenzhen's GHG emission reduction and air quality improvement. Furthermore, this study suggested road transportation and power generation and supply as the two priority fields for wide-ranging megacities to promote two-tier synergic governance, highlighting an integration of improved urban electrification with high-efficiency electricity use and a renewable-based power supply.

Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China.

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China's total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China's carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000-2012 than the value reported by China's national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China's cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China's cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China's emissions in 2000-2013 may be larger than China's estimated total forest sink in 1990-2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China's land carbon sink in 2000-2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

Correlation of MMP-9 and HMGB1 expression with the cognitive function in patients with epilepsy and factors affecting the prognosis.

This study was designed to investigate the expressions and roles of MMP-9 and HMGB1 in peripheral blood of patients with epilepsy and their relationship with the cognitive function and to explore factors affecting the prognosis of epilepsy patients. A total of 127 patients with epilepsy were collected in the study group and 120 healthy subjects receiving a physical examination at the same time were collected in the control group. The MMP-9 and HMGB1 expressions and their diagnostic value for epilepsy were compared between the two groups. The relationship between MMP-9 and HMGB1 expression levels and the clinical-pathological features and the Mini-mental State Evaluation Scale (MMSE) of patients from the study group were also analyzed. The serum levels of MMP-9 and HMGB1 in the study group were significantly higher than those in the control group (P< 0.001), and were greatly decreased after the treatment (P<0.001). The ROC curve showed that MMP-9 and HMGB1 combined detection had a good diagnostic efficiency for epilepsy. MMP-9 was much related to the type and disease duration of epilepsy (P< 0.05). HMGB1 was significantly associated with disease duration, seizure, and previous treatment history of epilepsy (P< 0.050). According to the Pearson correlation coefficient analysis, the expressions of MMP-9 and HMGB1 were negatively correlated with MMSE scores of the study group (P< 0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed that the duration of disease, seizures, MMP-9, and HMGB1 were independent risk factors for the prognosis of epilepsy. The expression levels of MMP-9 and HMGB1 in peripheral blood of patients with epilepsy are significantly increased, and negatively correlated with neurological function scores. They have potential involvement in the occurrence and development of epilepsy, which makes them significant for the diagnosis and treatment of epilepsy in the future.

Mitigating heat-related mortality risk in Shanghai, China: system dynamics modeling simulations.

Numerous studies in epidemiology, meteorology, and climate change research have demonstrated a significant association between abnormal ambient temperature and mortality. However, there is a shortage of research attention to a systematic assessment of potential mitigation measures which could effectively reduce the heat-related morbidity and mortality risks. This study first illustrates a conceptualization of a systems analysis version of urban framework for climate service (UFCS). It then constructs a system dynamics (SD) model for the UFCS and employs this model to quantify the impacts of heat waves on public health system in Shanghai and to evaluate the performances of two mitigation measures in the context of a real heat wave event in July 2013 in the city. Simulation results show that in comparison with the baseline without mitigation measures, if the hospital system could prepare 20% of beds available for emergency response to heat waves once receiving the warning in advance, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 40-60 (15.8-19.5%) on the 2 days of day 7 and day 8; if increasing the minimum living allowance of 790 RMB/month in 2013 by 20%, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 50-70 (17.7-21.9%) on the 2 days of day 8 and day 12. This tool can help policy makers systematically evaluate adaptation and mitigation options based on performance assessment, thus strengthening urban resilience to changing climate.

Assessing the interlinkage of green and blue water in an arid catchment in Northwest China.

Water resource assessment is crucial for human well-being and ecosystem health. Assessments considering both blue and green water are of great significance, as green water plays a critical but often ignored role in the terrestrial ecosystem, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Many approaches have been developed for green and blue water valuation; however, few approaches consider the interrelationship between green and blue water. This study proposed a new framework for green and blue water assessment by considering the interactions between green and blue water and the connections between human and natural ecosystems in an arid endorheic river basin where hydrological cycling is dramatically altered by human activities. The results show that even though green water is the dominant water resource, blue water is also critical. Most of the blue water is redirected back into the soil through physical and human-induced processes to meet the water demand of the ecosystem. The blue and green water regimes are found to be totally different in different ecosystems due to the temporal and spatial variability in water supply and consumption. We also found that humans are using an increasing proportion of water, resulting in decreasing water availability. Extensive water use by humans reduces the water availability for the natural ecosystem. Approximately 38.6% of the vegetation-covered area, which is dominated by farmland and forest, may face a moderate or high risk of increased conflict and tension over freshwater. This study provides crucial information to better understand the interactions between green and blue water and the relations between humans and nature by explicitly assessing water resources. It also provides crucial information for water management strategies that aim to balance humankind and nature.

Exploring Future Food Provision Scenarios for China.

Developing sustainable food systems is essential, especially for emerging economies, where food systems are changing rapidly and affect the environment and natural resources. We explored possible future pathways for a sustainable food system in China, using multiple environmental indicators linked to eight of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Forecasts for 2030 in a business as usual scenario (BAU) indicate increases in animal food consumption as well as increased shortages of the land available and the water needed to produce the required food in China. Associated greenhouse gas emissions and nitrogen and phosphorus losses could become 10-42% of global emissions in 2010. We developed three main pathways besides BAU [produce more and better food (PMB), consume and waste less food (CWL), and import more food (IMF)] and analyzed their impacts and contributions to achieving one or more of the eight SDGs. Under these scenarios, the demand for land and water and the emissions of GHG and nutrients may decrease by 7-55% compared to BAU, depending on the pathway followed. A combination of PMB and CWL was most effective, while IMF externalizes impacts to countries exporting to China. Modestly increasing feed or food imports in a selective manner could ease the pressure on natural resources. Our modeling framework allows us to analyze the effects of changes in food production-consumption systems in an integrated manner, and the results can be linked to the eight SDGs. Despite formidable technological, social, educational, and structural barriers that need to be overcome, our study indicates that the ambitious targets of China's new agricultural and environmental strategy appear to be achievable.

The Water-Energy Nexus of Megacities Extends Beyond Geographic Boundaries: A Case of Beijing.

The water-energy nexus (WEN) is dynamic and complicated in megacities, most of which are challenged by water scarcity and the mandate to reduce energy consumption. A salient feature of water and energy services in megacities is that they are supported by a web of regional infrastructure, extending far beyond the geographic boundaries of the cities, resulting in a strong dependence on resources imported from outside. Understanding the WEN of megacities has implications not only for more efficient resource utilization but also for synergistic regional development and corporation. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the WEN of Beijing within and beyond its geographic boundaries. Results show that water for local internal energy production and transformation accounts for 220 million m3/year, or 5.6% of its total freshwater use in 2016, and the energy for local water abstraction, supply, and treatment is 3.06 billion kWh, accounting for 1.1% of its total energy consumption for the same year. The external water for "imported" energy is 290 million m3/year, 1.3 times of Beijing's freshwater use for internal energy. This means that more water for energy is consumed outside Beijing than that within Beijing. The energy for external water is negligible because the bulk of the water transfer into Beijing relies on gravity and because the energy for construction of the transfer infrastructure is not included. Analysis of the WEN revealed the contradiction between the two independently conceived policies of Beijing: to meet the "three-red-line" target in the water sector, recycled water and transferred water use will rise, making it more difficult to meet the carbon emission control targets. Therefore, adopting low energy intensity, nature-based water recycling is a wise policy choice.

Physical and virtual water transfers for regional water stress alleviation in China.

Water can be redistributed through, in physical terms, water transfer projects and virtually, embodied water for the production of traded products. Here, we explore whether such water redistributions can help mitigate water stress in China. This study, for the first time to our knowledge, both compiles a full inventory for physical water transfers at a provincial level and maps virtual water flows between Chinese provinces in 2007 and 2030. Our results show that, at the national level, physical water flows because of the major water transfer projects amounted to 4.5% of national water supply, whereas virtual water flows accounted for 35% (varies between 11% and 65% at the provincial level) in 2007. Furthermore, our analysis shows that both physical and virtual water flows do not play a major role in mitigating water stress in the water-receiving regions but exacerbate water stress for the water-exporting regions of China. Future water stress in the main water-exporting provinces is likely to increase further based on our analysis of the historical trajectory of the major governing socioeconomic and technical factors and the full implementation of policy initiatives relating to water use and economic development. Improving water use efficiency is key to mitigating water stress, but the efficiency gains will be largely offset by the water demand increase caused by continued economic development. We conclude that much greater attention needs to be paid to water demand management rather than the current focus on supply-oriented management.

HPLC-MS/MS analysis of anthocyanins in human plasma and urine using protein precipitation and dilute-and-shoot sample preparation methods, respectively.

A high-performance liquid chromatography tandem-mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) method has been developed to analyze anthocyanins in urine and plasma to further understand their absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion. The method employed a Synergi RP-Max column (250 × 4.6 mm, 4 µm) and an API 4000 mass spectrometer. A gradient elution system consisted of mobile phase A (water-1% formic acid) and mobile phase B (acetonitrile) with a flow rate of 0.60 mL/min. The gradient was initiated at 5% B, increased to 21% B at 20 min, and then increased to 40% B at 35 min. The analysis of anthocyanins presents a challenge because of the poor stability of anthocyanins during sample preparation, especially during solvent evaporation. In this method, the degradation of anthocyanins was minimized using protein precipitation and dilute-and-shoot and sample preparation methods for plasma and urine, respectively. No interferences were observed from endogenous compounds. The method has been used to analyze anthocyanin concentrations in urine and plasma samples from volunteers administered saskatoon berries. Cyanidin-3-galactoside, cyanidin-3-glucoside, cyanidin-3-arabinoside, cyanidin-3-xyloside and quercetin-3-galactoside, the five major flavonoid components in saskatoon berries, were identified in plasma and urine samples.

Anthropogenic climate change has influenced global river flow seasonality.

Riverine ecosystems have adapted to natural discharge variations across seasons. However, evidence suggesting that climate change has already impacted magnitudes of river flow seasonality is limited to local studies, mainly focusing on changes of mean or extreme flows. This study introduces the use of apportionment entropy as a robust measure to assess flow-volume nonuniformity across seasons, enabling a global analysis. We found that ~21% of long-term river gauging stations exhibit significant alterations in seasonal flow distributions, but two-thirds of these are unrelated to trends in annual mean discharge. By combining a data-driven runoff reconstruction with state-of-the-art hydrological simulations, we identified a discernible weakening of river flow seasonality in northern high latitudes (above 50°N), a phenomenon directly linked to anthropogenic climate forcing.

City level water withdrawal and scarcity accounts of China.

In the context of China's freshwater crisis high-resolution data are critical for sustainable water management and economic growth. Yet there is a dearth of data on water withdrawal and scarcity regardless of whether total or subsector amount, for prefectural cities. In administrative and territorial scope, we accounted for water withdrawal of all 63 economic-socio-environmental sectors for all 343 prefectural cities in China, based on a general framework and 2015 data. Spatial and economic-sector resolution is improved compared with previous studies by partitioning general sectors into industrial and agricultural sub-sectors. Construction of these datasets was based on selection of 16 driving forces. We connected a size indicator with corresponding water-withdrawal efficiency. We further accounted for total blue-water withdrawal and quantitative water scarcity status. Then we compared different scopes and methods of official accounts and statistics from various water datasets. These disaggregated and complete data could be used in input-output models for municipal design and governmental planning to help gain in-depth insights into subsector water-saving priorities from local economic activities.

The changing nature of groundwater in the global water cycle.

In recent decades, climate change and other anthropogenic activities have substantially affected groundwater systems worldwide. These impacts include changes in groundwater recharge, discharge, flow, storage, and distribution. Climate-induced shifts are evident in altered recharge rates, greater groundwater contribution to streamflow in glacierized catchments, and enhanced groundwater flow in permafrost areas. Direct anthropogenic changes include groundwater withdrawal and injection, regional flow regime modification, water table and storage alterations, and redistribution of embedded groundwater in foods globally. Notably, groundwater extraction contributes to sea level rise, increasing the risk of groundwater inundation in coastal areas. The role of groundwater in the global water cycle is becoming more dynamic and complex. Quantifying these changes is essential to ensure sustainable supply of fresh groundwater resources for people and ecosystems.