RESUMEN
Skin cancer risk is increased by exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR). Because UVR exposure accumulates over time and lighter skin is more susceptible to UVR, age and skin tone are risk factors for skin cancer. However, measurements of somatic mutations in healthy-appearing skin have not been used to calculate skin cancer risk. In this study, we developed a noninvasive test that quantifies somatic mutations in healthy-appearing sun-exposed skin and applied it to a 1038-subject cohort. Somatic mutations were combined with other known skin cancer risk factors to train a model to calculate risk. The final model (DNA-Skin Cancer Assessment of Risk) was trained to predict personal history of skin cancer from age, family history, skin tone, and mutation count. The addition of mutation count significantly improved model performance (OR = 1.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.14-1.48; P = 5.3 × 10-6) and made a more significant contribution than skin tone. Calculations of skin cancer risk matched the known United States population prevalence, indicating that DNA-Skin Cancer Assessment of Risk was well-calibrated. In conclusion, somatic mutations in healthy-appearing sun-exposed skin increase skin cancer risk, and mutations capture risk information that is not accounted for by other risk factors. Clinical utility is supported by the noninvasive nature of skin sample collection through adhesive patches.