Predicting outcomes after blunt chest wall trauma: development and external validation of a new prognostic model.

INTRODUCTION: Blunt chest wall trauma accounts for over 15% of all trauma admissions to Emergency Departments worldwide. Reported mortality rates vary between 4 and 60%. Management of this patient group is challenging as a result of the delayed on-set of complications. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model that can be used to assist in the management of blunt chest wall trauma. METHODS: There were two distinct phases to the overall study; the development and the validation phases. In the first study phase, the prognostic model was developed through the retrospective analysis of all blunt chest wall trauma patients (n = 274) presenting to the Emergency Department of a regional trauma centre in Wales (2009 to 2011). Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the model and identify the significant predictors for the development of complications. The model's accuracy and predictive capabilities were assessed. In the second study phase, external validation of the model was completed in a multi-centre prospective study (n = 237) in 2012. The model's accuracy and predictive capabilities were re-assessed for the validation sample. A risk score was developed for use in the clinical setting. RESULTS: Significant predictors of the development of complications were age, number of rib fractures, chronic lung disease, use of pre-injury anticoagulants and oxygen saturation levels. The final model demonstrated an excellent c-index of 0.96 (95% confidence intervals: 0.93 to 0.98). CONCLUSIONS: In our two phase study, we have developed and validated a prognostic model that can be used to assist in the management of blunt chest wall trauma patients. The final risk score provides the clinician with the probability of the development of complications for each individual patient.

Chronic pain in survivors of critical illness: a retrospective analysis of incidence and risk factors.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic pain has been reported in survivors of critical illness for many years after discharge from hospital. This study investigates the incidence and site of chronic pain in survivors of critical illness between 6 months and 1 year after hospitalization, including ICU admission. A retrospective analysis of the risk factors for chronic pain in this patient group was also completed. METHODS: A questionnaire method was used to investigate the incidence of chronic pain and the specific body parts affected. A retrospective study and multivariable analysis were used to investigate the risk factors for chronic pain in this patient group. All survivors of a general intensive care unit (ICU) in South Wales in a 6-month period were included in this study. RESULTS: Chronic pain was reported in 44% of all respondents. The shoulder was the most commonly reported joint affected by pain (22%). Risk factors for chronic pain between 6 months and 1 year after ICU discharge were increasing patient age and severe sepsis. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic pain is a problem in survivors of critical illness, especially in the shoulder joint, and further studies are needed investigating therapeutic interventions that address this long-term problem.