Spike protein genetic evolution in patients at high-risk of severe COVID-19 treated by monoclonal antibodies.

BACKGROUND: High-risk patients, often immunocompromised and not responding to vaccine, continue to experience severe COVID-19 and death. Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) were shown effective to prevent severe COVID-19 for these patients. Nevertheless, concerns about the emergence of resistance mutations were raised. METHODS: We conducted a multicentric prospective cohort study, including 264 patients with mild-to moderate COVID-19 at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19 and treated early with Casirivimab/Imdevimab, Sotrovimab or Tixagevimab/Cilgavimab. We sequenced the SARS-CoV-2 genome during follow-up and searched for emerging Spike mutations. RESULTS: Immunocompromised patients have a 6-fold increased risk of developing mutations, which are associated with a prolonged duration of viral clearance but no clinical worsening. Emerging P337S/R/L/H, E340D/K/A/Q/V/G and K356T/R substitutions in patients treated with Sotrovimab are associated with higher viral RNA loads for up to 14 days post-treatment initiation. Tixagevimab/Cilgavimab is associated with a 5-fold increased risk of developing mutations. R346K/I/T/S and K444R/N/M substitutions associated with Tixagevimab/Cilgavimab have been identified in multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages, including BQ.1 and XBB. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the probability of emerging mutations arising in response to mAbs is significant, emphasizing the crucial need to investigate these mutations thoroughly and assess their impact on patients and the evolutionary trajectory of the SARS-CoV-2.

Dynamic personalized prediction of the individual liver-related risk after sustained viral response in HCV patients.

Sustained viral response (SVR) significantly improves the prognosis in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection but does not totally alleviate the risk of liver-related complications (LRC). We aimed to evaluate whether the dynamics of multiple measurements of simple parameters after SVR enable the development of a personalized prediction of prognosis in HCV patients. HCV mono-infected patients who experienced SVR in two prospective cohorts (ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort: derivation set; ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort: validation set) were included. The study outcome was LRC, a composite criterion including decompensation of cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. Joint latent class modelling accounting for both biomarker trajectory and event occurrence during follow-up was developed in the derivation set to compute individual dynamic predictions, with further evaluation in the validation set. In the derivation set (n = 695; 50 LRC during the median 3.8 [1.6-7.5] years follow-up), FIB4 was identified as a biomarker associated with LRC occurrence after SVR. Joint modelling used sex and the dynamics of FIB4 and diabetes status to develop a personalized prediction of LRC. In the validation set (n = 7064; 273 LRC during the median 3.6 [2.5-4.9] years follow-up), individual dynamic predictions from the model accurately stratified the risk of LRC. Time-dependent Brier Score showed good calibration that improved with the accumulation of visits, justifying our modelling approach considering both baseline and follow-up measurements. Dynamic modelling using repeated measurements of simple parameters predicts the individual residual risk of LRC and improves personalized medicine after SVR in HCV patients.

Performance of algorithms for identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B or C infection in the french health insurance claims databases using the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort.

The validity of algorithms for identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B or C virus (HBV or HCV) infection in claims databases has been little explored. The performance of 15 algorithms was evaluated. Data from HBV- or HCV-infected patients enrolled between August 2012 and December 2015 in French hepatology centres (ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort) were individually linked to the French national health insurance system (SNDS). The SNDS covers 99% of the French population and contains healthcare reimbursement data. Performance metrics were calculated by comparing the viral status established by clinicians with those obtained with the algorithms identifying chronic HBV- and HCV-infected patients. A total of 14 751 patients (29% with chronic HBV and 63% with chronic HCV infection) followed-up until December 2018 were selected. Despite good specificity, the algorithms relying on ICD-10 codes performed poorly. By contrast, the multi-criteria algorithms combining ICD-10 codes, antiviral dispensing, laboratory diagnostic tests (HBV DNA or HCV RNA detection and quantification, HCV genotyping), examinations for the assessment of liver fibrosis and long-term disease registrations were the most effective (sensitivity 0.92, 95% CI, 0.91-0.93 and specificity 0.96, 95% CI, 0.95-0.96 for identifying chronic HBV-infected patients; sensitivity 0.94, 95% CI, 0.94-0.94 and specificity 0.85, 95% CI, 0.84-0.86 for identifying chronic HCV-infected patients). In conclusion, the multi-criteria algorithms perform well in identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B or C infection and can be used to estimate the magnitude of the public health burden associated with hepatitis B and C in France.

Impact of direct-acting antiviral treatment for hepatitis C on cardiovascular diseases and extrahepatic cancers.

PURPOSE: The impact of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) on extrahepatic complications in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients remains poorly described. We estimated the association of DAAs with cardiovascular events and extrahepatic cancers. METHODS: The prospective ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort was enriched with individual data until December 2018 from the French Health Insurance Database (SNDS). CHC patients were enrolled between August 2012 and December 2015 in 32 French hepatology centers. A total of 8148 CHC adults were selected. Cardiovascular events (stroke, acute coronary syndrome, pulmonary embolism, heart failure, arrhythmias and conduction disorders [ACD], peripheral arterial disease [PAD]) and extrahepatic solid cancers were derived from the SNDS. Associations between DAAs and extrahepatic events were estimated using marginal structural models, with adjustments for clinical confounders. RESULTS: Analyses of 12 905 person-years of no DAA exposure and 22 326 person-years following DAA exposure showed a decreased risk of PAD after DAA exposure (hazard ratio [HR], 0.54; 95% CI, 0.33-0.89), a beneficial effect of DAAs on overall cardiovascular outcomes in patients with advanced fibrosis (aHR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.42-0.79), and an increased risk of ACD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.46; 95% CI, 1.04-2.04), predominant after the first year following DAA initiation. There was no association between DAAs and extrahepatic cancer risk (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.50-3.03). CONCLUSIONS: DAAs were not associated with extrahepatic cancer development or reduction. They were associated with a decreased risk of PAD and an increased risk of ACD, supporting long-term cardiac monitoring after DAA therapy.

Impaired health-related quality of life in the HCV cure era: who is concerned? (ANRS CO22 HEPATHER French cohort).

PURPOSE: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure after treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) can improve health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, specific groups with chronic HCV may still exhibit worse post-cure HRQoL because of persisting severe liver fibrosis or social vulnerability factors (e.g. unhealthy alcohol use, living in poverty). We assessed the effect of such factors on longitudinal measures of HRQoL in chronic HCV patients. METHODS: ANRS CO22 HEPATHER is a prospective cohort of chronic HCV patients receiving DAAs, which included notably patients with social vulnerability factors, a population usually under-represented in clinical trials. Multivariable mixed-effects linear regression models helped identify factors associated with longitudinal measures of HRQoL (PROQOL-HCV scores). RESULTS: At enrolment, 52.4% of the 2740 participants were men, median age was 56 years [interquartile range 50-64], and 21.5% had severe liver fibrosis (FIB-4 > 3.25). Twenty-eight per cent reported current or past unhealthy alcohol use [> 2(3) alcohol units per day for women (men)], and 28.1% were living in poverty (standard of living under 1015€/month per household consumption unit). At first PROQOL-HCV completion, 54.0% of patients were HCV-cured. After multivariable adjustment, people with current or past unhealthy alcohol use, individuals living in poverty, those with severe liver fibrosis, and women had worse HRQoL in the dimensions explored. Conversely, HCV cure was associated with better HRQoL. CONCLUSIONS: Specific socially vulnerable groups of patients with chronic HCV infection still experience impaired HRQoL, independently of HCV cure. Patient-centred interventions, including social support and referral for comorbidities, should be prioritized for them. Trial registration with ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01953458.

Sofosbuvir-Daclatasvir is suboptimal in patients with genotype 2 chronic hepatitis C infection: real-life experience from the HEPATHER ANRS CO22 cohort.

Sofosbuvir plus daclatasvir with or without ribavirin has demonstrated a high efficacy and an acceptable safety profile in clinical trials of patients infected with genotype 2 hepatitis Cvirus (HCV); however, there are currently no real-world data available for this regimen. To evaluate the real-life safety and efficacy of sofosbuvir/daclatasvir with or without ribavirin in genotype 2 HCV patients in the French cohort ANRS CO22 HEPATHER(NCT01953458). In this ongoing, national, multicentre, prospective, observational study, we observed patients with HCV genotype 2 infection who initiated treatment with sofosbuvir (400 mg/d) plus daclatasvir with or without ribavirin (1-1.2 g/d). Patients were divided into two treatment groups: sofosbuvir/daclatasvir with or without ribavirin (12 weeks/24 weeks). The primary end point was a sustained virological response at week 12 following the end of therapy. Overall, 88% and 91% of patients achieved a sustained virological response following 12 and 24 weeks of treatment with sofosbuvir/daclatasvir with or without ribavirin, respectively. The most common adverse events were asthenia (29%), headache (15%) and fatigue (20%), and ribavirin addition was associated with a higher rate of adverse events and treatment discontinuation. Sofosbuvir/daclatasvir with or without ribavirin was associated with lower rates of sustained virological response in the real-life setting compared with the clinical setting and demonstrated suboptimal efficacy for the treatment of patients with genotype 2 chronic HCV.

The dynamic effect of direct-acting antiviral treatments on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis C.

There is still some controversy over a potentially increased short-term risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after the initiation of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, even though a decreased long-term risk of HCC has been reported following a sustained virological response in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We characterized the time-varying effect of DAAs on the risk of the occurrence of HCC in patients with cirrhosis and HCV infection. We analysed patients with cirrhosis and chronic HCV infection from the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort study. We excluded patients with active HBV coinfection, liver transplantation or a past history of HCC. We used a flexible weighted effect cumulative exposure Cox model to characterize the time-varying effect of DAAs on the risk of HCC. A total of 3595 patients, mean age 59.3 years old, 65% men, were eligible for the study. Median follow-up was 36.8 months (IQR 24.6-47.1). DAAs were started during follow-up in 3292 patients. Three hundred and fifty-six HCCs were reported (275 treated, 81 untreated). Overall, a constant decrease in the risk of occurrence of HCC (vs untreated) was found from the start of treatment. Results were similar in patients without a history of decompensated cirrhosis (DC). Analysis of patients with a past history of DC showed a nonsignificant increase in the occurrence of HCC over the first 6 months, while the HR was significantly decreased at 14 months. These findings support the urgent initiation of DAAs in all patients.

Performance of the marginal structural cox model for estimating individual and joined effects of treatments given in combination.

BACKGROUND: The Marginal Structural Cox Model (Cox-MSM), an alternative approach to handle time-dependent confounder, was introduced for survival analysis and applied to estimate the joint causal effect of two time-dependent nonrandomized treatments on survival among HIV-positive subjects. Nevertheless, Cox-MSM performance in the case of multiple treatments has not been fully explored under different degree of time-dependent confounding for treatments or in case of interaction between treatments. We aimed to evaluate and compare the performance of the marginal structural Cox model (Cox-MSM) to the standard Cox model in estimating the treatment effect in the case of multiple treatments under different scenarios of time-dependent confounding and when an interaction between treatment effects is present. METHODS: We specified a Cox-MSM with two treatments including an interaction term for situations where an adverse event might be caused by two treatments taken simultaneously but not by each treatment taken alone. We simulated longitudinal data with two treatments and a time-dependent confounder affected by one or the two treatments. To fit the Cox-MSM, we used the inverse probability weighting method. We illustrated the method to evaluate the specific effect of protease inhibitors combined (or not) to other antiretroviral medications on the anal cancer risk in HIV-infected individuals, with CD4 cell count as time-dependent confounder. RESULTS: Overall, Cox-MSM performed better than the standard Cox model. Furthermore, we showed that estimates were unbiased when an interaction term was included in the model. CONCLUSION: Cox-MSM may be used for accurately estimating causal individual and joined treatment effects from a combination therapy in presence of time-dependent confounding provided that an interaction term is estimated.

Antiviral activities of sotrovimab against BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 in sera of treated patients.

Background: Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) targeting the spike of SARS-CoV-2 prevent severe COVID-19. Omicron subvariants BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 evade neutralization of therapeutic mAbs, leading to recommendations against their use. Yet, the antiviral activities of mAbs in treated patients remain ill-defined. Methods: We investigated neutralization and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) of D614G, BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 in 320 sera from 80 immunocompromised patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 prospectively treated with mAbs (sotrovimab, n=29; imdevimab/casirivimab, n=34; cilgavimab/tixagevimab, n=4) or anti-protease (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, n=13). We measured live-virus neutralization titers and quantified ADCC with a reporter assay. Findings: Only Sotrovimab elicits serum neutralization and ADCC against BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5. As compared to D614G, sotrovimab neutralization titers of BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 are reduced (71- and 58-fold, respectively), but ADCC levels are only slightly decreased (1.4- and 1-fold, for BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5, respectively). Interpretation: Our results show that sotrovimab is active against BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 in treated individuals, suggesting that it may be a valuable therapeutic option.

Sotrovimab therapy elicits antiviral activities against Omicron BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 in sera of immunocompromised patients.

Antibodies effective against the recent Omicron sublineages are missing. By taking advantage of a multi-centric prospective cohort of immunocompromised individuals treated for mild-to-moderate COVID-19, Bruel et al. show that administration of 500 mg of sotrovimab induces serum neutralization and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity of BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5. Therefore, sotrovimab may remain a therapeutic option against these variants.

Time to negative PCR conversion amongst high-risk patients with mild-to-moderate Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 COVID-19 treated with sotrovimab or nirmatrelvir.

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to compare the clinical and virological outcomes in Omicron BA.1- and BA.2-infected patients who received sotrovimab with those in patients who received nirmatrelvir for the prevention of severe COVID-19. METHODS: In this multi-centric, prospective ANRS 0003S CoCoPrev cohort study, patients at a high risk of progression of mild-to-moderate BA.1 or BA.2 COVID-19 who received sotrovimab or nirmatrelvir were included. The proportion of patients with progression to severe COVID-19, time between the start of treatment to negative PCR conversion, SARS-CoV-2 viral decay, and characterization of resistance variants were determined. A multi-variable Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the time to negative PCR conversion and a mixed-effect model for the dynamics of viral decay. RESULTS: Amongst 255 included patients, 199 (80%) received ≥3 vaccine doses, 195 (76%) received sotrovimab, and 60 (24%) received nirmatrelvir. On day 28, new COVID-19-related hospitalization occurred in 4 of 193 (2%; 95% CI, 1-5%) sotrovimab-treated patients and 0 of 55 nirmatrelvir-treated patients (p 0.24). One out of the 55 nirmatrelvir-treated patients died (2%; 95% CI, 0-10%). The median time to negative PCR conversion was 11.5 days (95% CI, 10.5-13) in the sotrovimab-treated patients vs. 4 days (95% CI, 4-9) in the nirmatrelvir-treated patients (p < 0.001). Viral decay was faster in the patients who received nirmatrelvir (p < 0.001). In the multi-variable analysis, nirmatrelvir and nasopharyngeal PCR cycle threshold values were independently associated with faster conversion to negative PCR (hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.56-3.56; p < 0.0001 and hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08; p 0.01, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Early administration of nirmatrelvir in high-risk patients compared with that of sotrovimab was associated with faster viral clearance. This may participate to decrease transmission and prevent viral resistance.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis after sustained virologic response.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in patients with chronic hepatitis C (HCV) who achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) after direct acting antivirals (DAAs) remains challenging. METHODS: Among HCC-free HCV patients with advanced fibrosis enrolled in the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort who achieved SVR 12 weeks after treatment with DAAs, HCC predictive models were developed using Cox multivariable regression. The derived score was externally validated in a large Egyptian cohort. Our main outcome was the HCC-free survival. RESULTS: During follow-up (median 3.05 years), 153 out of 3531 patients developed a HCC. Main variables associated with HCC occurrence were: male gender, HCV genotype 3, esophageal varices, albumin < 40 g/L, total bilirubin >11 µmol/L and hypercholesterolemia before DAA initiation, together with age > 58 years, FIB-4 index ≥3.25 evaluated at SVR. A score was established allowing the stratification of patients by high (score ≥ 12/22), intermediate (7 ≤ score <12) and low risk of HCC (score < 7/22) with 3-yrs HCC incidence of 18.96%, 5.50% and 1.65%, respectively. The integrated time-dependent area under the ROC curve (i-AUC) was 0.76 in our patients and 0.61 in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: The externally validated HEPATHER HCC score has good short-term predictive performance in HCV- patients who achieved SVR12 after DAAs allowing to identify high-risk patients in whom HCC screening may be cost-effective and low-risk patients in whom HCC screening may be superfluous in the first 3 years after SVR.

Antibody status and cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among adults in three regions of France following the first lockdown and associated risk factors: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate the seropositivity to anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in May-June 2020 after the first lockdown period in adults living in three regions in France and to identify the associated risk factors. METHODS: Between 4 May 2020 and 23 June 2020, 16 000 participants in a survey on COVID-19 from an existing consortium of three general adult population cohorts living in the Ile-de-France (IDF) or Grand Est (GE) (two regions with high rate of COVID-19) or in the Nouvelle-Aquitaine (NA) (with a low rate) were randomly selected to take a dried-blood spot for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies assessment with three different serological methods (ClinicalTrial Identifier #NCT04392388). The primary outcome was a positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 ELISA IgG result against the spike protein of the virus (ELISA-S). Estimates were adjusted using sampling weights and post-stratification methods. Multiple imputation was used to infer the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection with adjustments for imperfect tests accuracies. RESULTS: The analysis included 14 628 participants, 983 with a positive ELISA-S. The weighted estimates of seropositivity and cumulative incidence were 10.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 9.1%, 10.9%] and 11.4% (95% CI: 10.1%, 12.8%) in IDF, 9.0% (95% CI: 7.7%, 10.2%) and 9.8% (95% CI: 8.1%, 11.8%) in GE and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.4%, 3.7%) and 2.9% (95% CI: 2.1%, 3.8%) in NA, respectively. Seropositivity was higher in younger participants [odds ratio (OR) = 1.84 (95% CI: 1.79, 6.09) in <40 vs 50-60 years old and OR = 0.56 (95% CI: 0.42, 0.74) in ≥70 vs 50-60 years old)] and when at least one child or adolescent lived in the same household [OR = 1.30 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.53)] and was lower in smokers compared with non-smokers [OR = 0.71 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.89)]. CONCLUSIONS: Seropositivity to anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the French adult population was ≤10% after the first wave. Modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors were identified.

Predictive factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B using structural equation modeling: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The factors predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in chronic hepatitis B need to be precisely known to improve its detection. We identified pathways and individual predictive factors associated with HCC in the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort. METHODS: The study analyzed HBV-infected patients recruited at 32 French expert hepatology centers from August 6, 2012, to December 31, 2015. We excluded patients with chronic HCV, HDV and a history of HCC, decompensated cirrhosis or liver transplantation. Structural equation models were developed to characterize the causal pathways leading to HCC occurrence. The association between clinical characteristics (age, gender, body-mass index, liver fibrosis, alcohol consumption, smoking status, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, alpha-fetoprotein, HBV DNA levels, antiviral therapy) and incident HCC was quantified. RESULTS: Among the 4489 patients included, 33 patients reported incident HCC. The median follow-up was 45.5 months. Age (ß = 0.18 by decade, 95% CI 0.14-0.23), male gender (ß = 0.23, 95% CI 0.18-0.29), metabolic syndrome (ß = 0.28, 95% CI 0.22-0.33), alcohol consumption (ß = 0.09, 95% CI 0.05-0.14) and HBV DNA (ß = 0.25, 95% CI 0.170.34) had a significant and direct effect on the occurrence of advanced liver fibrosis. Liver fibrosis (ß = 0.71, 95% CI 0.55-0.87) predicted, in turn, the occurrence of HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Liver fibrosis mediates the effects of age, gender, alcohol, metabolic syndrome and HBV DNA on the occurrence of HCC. Elderly men with chronic hepatitis B, risky alcohol use, advanced liver fibrosis, metabolic syndrome and high HBV DNA levels should be monitored closely to detect the development of HCC.