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1.
BJOG ; 131(3): 256-266, 2024 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37691262

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To compare two quality improvement (QI) interventions to improve antenatal magnesium sulphate (MgSO4 ) uptake in preterm births for the prevention of cerebral palsy. DESIGN: Unblinded cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Academic Health Sciences Network, England, 2018. SAMPLE: Maternity units with ≥10 preterm deliveries annually and MgSO4 uptake of ≤70%; 40 (27 NPP, 13 enhanced support) were included (randomisation stratified by MgSO4 uptake). METHODS: The National PReCePT Programme (NPP) gave maternity units QI materials (clinical guidance, training), regional support, and midwife backfill funding. Enhanced support units received this plus extra backfill funding and unit-level QI coaching. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: MgSO4 uptake was compared using routine data and multivariable linear regression. Net monetary benefit was estimated, based on implementation costs, lifetime quality-adjusted life-years and societal costs. The implementation process was assessed through qualitative interviews. RESULTS: MgSO4 uptake increased in all units, with no evidence of any difference between groups (0.84 percentage points lower uptake in the enhanced group, 95% CI -5.03 to 3.35). The probability of enhanced support being cost-effective was <30%. NPP midwives gave more than their funded hours for implementation. Units varied in their support needs. Enhanced support units reported better understanding, engagement and perinatal teamwork. CONCLUSIONS: PReCePT improved MgSO4 uptake in all maternity units. Enhanced support did not further improve uptake but may improve teamwork, and more accurately represented the time needed for implementation. Targeted enhanced support, sustainability of improvements and the possible indirect benefits of stronger teamwork associated with enhanced support should be explored further.


Asunto(s)
Parálisis Cerebral , Nacimiento Prematuro , Recién Nacido , Femenino , Embarazo , Humanos , Nacimiento Prematuro/prevención & control , Nacimiento Prematuro/tratamiento farmacológico , Sulfato de Magnesio/uso terapéutico , Parálisis Cerebral/prevención & control , Mejoramiento de la Calidad , Parto
2.
PLoS Med ; 20(9): e1004282, 2023 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37769031

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Adults living with overweight/obesity are eligible for publicly funded weight management (WM) programmes according to national guidance. People with the most severe and complex obesity are eligible for bariatric surgery. Primary care plays a key role in identifying overweight/obesity and referring to WM interventions. This study aimed to (1) describe the primary care population in England who (a) are referred for WM interventions and (b) undergo bariatric surgery and (2) determine the patient and GP practice characteristics associated with both. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An observational cohort study was undertaken using routinely collected primary care data in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics. During the study period (January 2007 to June 2020), 1,811,587 adults met the inclusion criteria of a recording of overweight/obesity in primary care, of which 54.62% were female and 20.10% aged 45 to 54. Only 56,783 (3.13%) were referred to WM, and 3,701 (1.09% of those with severe and complex obesity) underwent bariatric surgery. Multivariable Poisson regression examined the associations of demographic, clinical, and regional characteristics on the likelihood of WM referral and bariatric surgery. Higher body mass index (BMI) and practice region had the strongest associations with both outcomes. People with BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were more than 6 times as likely to be referred for WM (10.05% of individuals) than BMI 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m2 (1.34%) (rate ratio (RR) 6.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) [5.99,6.40], p < 0.001). They were more than 5 times as likely to undergo bariatric surgery (3.98%) than BMI 35.0 to 40.0 kg/m2 with a comorbidity (0.53%) (RR 5.52, 95% CI [5.07,6.02], p < 0.001). Patients from practices in the West Midlands were the most likely to have a WM referral (5.40%) (RR 2.17, 95% CI [2.10,2.24], p < 0.001, compared with the North West, 2.89%), and practices from the East of England least likely (1.04%) (RR 0.43, 95% CI [0.41,0.46], p < 0.001, compared with North West). Patients from practices in London were the most likely to undergo bariatric surgery (2.15%), and practices in the North West the least likely (0.68%) (RR 3.29, 95% CI [2.88,3.76], p < 0.001, London compared with North West). Longer duration since diagnosis with severe and complex obesity (e.g., 1.67% of individuals diagnosed in 2007 versus 0.34% in 2015, RR 0.20, 95% CI [0.12,0.32], p < 0.001), and increasing comorbidities (e.g., 2.26% of individuals with 6+ comorbidities versus 1.39% with none (RR 8.79, 95% CI [7.16,10.79], p < 0.001) were also strongly associated with bariatric surgery. The main limitation is the reliance on overweight/obesity being recorded within primary care records to identify the study population. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2007 and 2020, a very small percentage of the primary care population eligible for WM referral or bariatric surgery according to national guidance received either. Higher BMI and GP practice region had the strongest associations with both. Regional inequalities may reflect differences in commissioning and provision of WM services across the country. Multi-stakeholder qualitative research is ongoing to understand the barriers to accessing WM services and potential solutions. Together with population-wide prevention strategies, improved access to WM interventions is needed to reduce obesity levels.


Asunto(s)
Cirugía Bariátrica , Sobrepeso , Adulto , Humanos , Femenino , Masculino , Sobrepeso/epidemiología , Sobrepeso/terapia , Sobrepeso/complicaciones , Atención Secundaria de Salud , Obesidad/epidemiología , Obesidad/terapia , Obesidad/complicaciones , Estudios de Cohortes
3.
BMJ Open ; 14(8): e078108, 2024 Aug 21.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39174061

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to identify which patients are likely to stay in hospital longer following total hip replacement surgery. DESIGN: Longitudinal, observational study used routinely collected data. SETTING: Data were collected from an NHS Trust in South-West England between 2016 and 2019. PARTICIPANTS: 2352 hip replacement patients had complete data and were included in analysis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Three measures of length of stay were used: a count measure of number of days spent in hospital, a binary measure of ≤7 days/>7 days in hospital and a binary measure of remaining in hospital when medically fit for discharge. RESULTS: The mean length of stay was 5.4 days following surgery, with 18% in hospital for more than 7 days, and 11% staying in hospital when medically fit for discharge. Longer hospital stay was associated with older age (OR=1.06, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.08), being female (OR=1.42, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.81) and more comorbidities (OR=3.52, 95% CI 1.45 to 8.55) and shorter length of stay with not having had a recent hospital admission (OR=0.44, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.60). Results were similar for remaining in hospital when medically fit for discharge, with the addition of an association with highest socioeconomic deprivation (OR=2.08, 95% CI 1.37 to 3.16). CONCLUSIONS: Older, female patients with more comorbidities and from more socioeconomically deprived areas are likely to remain in hospital for longer following surgery. This study produced regression models demonstrating consistent results across three measures of prolonged hospital stay following hip replacement surgery. These findings could be used to inform surgery planning and when supporting patient discharge following surgery.


Asunto(s)
Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Cadera , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Electivos , Tiempo de Internación , Humanos , Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Cadera/estadística & datos numéricos , Tiempo de Internación/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Masculino , Anciano , Estudios Longitudinales , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Persona de Mediana Edad , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Electivos/estadística & datos numéricos , Inglaterra , Alta del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Factores de Edad , Comorbilidad
4.
Schizophr Bull ; 50(2): 447-459, 2024 Mar 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37622178

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Antipsychotics are first-line drug treatments for schizophrenia. When antipsychotic monotherapy is ineffective, combining two antipsychotic drugs is common although treatment guidelines warn of possible increases in side effects. Risks of metabolic side effects with antipsychotic polypharmacy have not been fully investigated. This study examined associations between antipsychotic polypharmacy and risk of developing diabetes, hypertension, or hyperlipidemia in adults with schizophrenia, and impact of co-prescription of first- and second-generation antipsychotics. STUDY DESIGN: A population-based prospective cohort study was conducted in the United Kingdom using linked primary care, secondary care, mental health, and social deprivation datasets. Cox proportional hazards models with stabilizing weights were used to estimate risk of metabolic disorders among adults with schizophrenia, comparing patients on antipsychotic monotherapy vs polypharmacy, adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics, and antipsychotic dose. STUDY RESULTS: Median follow-up time across the three cohorts was approximately 14 months. 6.6% developed hypertension in the cohort assembled for this outcome, with polypharmacy conferring an increased risk compared to monotherapy, (adjusted Hazard Ratio = 3.16; P = .021). Patients exposed to exclusive first-generation antipsychotic polypharmacy had greater risk of hypertension compared to those exposed to combined first- and second-generation polypharmacy (adjusted HR 0.29, P = .039). No associations between polypharmacy and risk of diabetes or hyperlipidemia were found. CONCLUSIONS: Antipsychotic polypharmacy, particularly polypharmacy solely comprised of first-generation antipsychotics, increased the risk of hypertension. Future research employing larger samples, follow-up longer than the current median of 14 months, and more complex methodologies may further elucidate the association reported in this study.


Asunto(s)
Antipsicóticos , Diabetes Mellitus , Hiperlipidemias , Hipertensión , Enfermedades Metabólicas , Esquizofrenia , Adulto , Humanos , Esquizofrenia/tratamiento farmacológico , Esquizofrenia/epidemiología , Esquizofrenia/inducido químicamente , Estudios Longitudinales , Estudios Prospectivos , Enfermedades Metabólicas/tratamiento farmacológico , Diabetes Mellitus/inducido químicamente , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiología , Hiperlipidemias/inducido químicamente , Hiperlipidemias/epidemiología , Hiperlipidemias/tratamiento farmacológico , Hipertensión/inducido químicamente , Hipertensión/epidemiología , Hipertensión/tratamiento farmacológico
5.
BMJ Open ; 13(1): e064664, 2023 01 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36631238

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of a new clinic-based rapid sexually transmitted infection testing, diagnosis and treatment service on healthcare delivery and resource needs in an integrated sexual health service. DESIGN: Controlled interrupted time series study. SETTING: Two integrated sexual health services (SHS) in UK: Unity Sexual Health in Bristol, UK (intervention site) and Croydon Sexual Health in London (control site). PARTICIPANTS: Electronic patient records for all 58 418 attendances during the period 1 year before and 1 year after the intervention. INTERVENTION: Introduction of an in-clinic rapid testing system for gonorrhoea and chlamydia in combination with revised treatment pathways. OUTCOME MEASURES: Time-to-test notification, staff capacity, cost per episode of care and overall service costs. We also assessed rates of gonorrhoea culture swabs, follow-up attendances and examinations. RESULTS: Time-to-notification and the rate of gonorrhoea swabs significantly decreased following implementation of the new system. There was no evidence of change in follow-up visits or examination rates for patients seen in clinic related to the new system. Staff capacity in clinics appeared to be maintained across the study period. Overall, the number of episodes per week was unchanged in the intervention site, and the mean cost per episode decreased by 7.5% (95% CI 5.7% to 9.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The clear improvement in time-to-notification, while maintaining activity at a lower overall cost, suggests that the implementation of clinic-based testing had the intended impact, which bolsters the case for more widespread rollout in sexual health services.


Asunto(s)
Gonorrea , Enfermedades de Transmisión Sexual , Humanos , Gonorrea/diagnóstico , Gonorrea/epidemiología , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido , Enfermedades de Transmisión Sexual/diagnóstico , Enfermedades de Transmisión Sexual/epidemiología , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Servicios de Salud
6.
Arch Dis Child Fetal Neonatal Ed ; 108(4): 342-347, 2023 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36617442

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the National PReCePT Programme (NPP) in increasing use of magnesium sulfate (MgSO4) in preterm births. DESIGN: Before-and-after study. SETTING: Maternity units (N=137) within NHS England and the Academic Health Science Network (AHSN) in 2018. PARTICIPANTS: Babies born ≤30 weeks' gestation admitted to neonatal units in England. INTERVENTIONS: The NPP was a quality improvement (QI) intervention including the PReCePT (Preventing Cerebral Palsy in Pre Term labour) QI toolkit and materials (preterm labour proforma, staff training presentations, parent leaflet, posters for the unit and learning log), regional AHSN-level support, and up to 90 hours funded backfill for a midwife 'champion' to lead implementation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: MgSO4 uptake post implementation was compared with pre-NPP implementation uptake. Implementation and lifetime costs were estimated. RESULTS: Compared with pre-implementation estimates, the average MgSO4 uptake for babies born ≤30 weeks' gestation, in 137 maternity units in England, increased by 6.3 percentage points (95% CI 2.6 to 10.0 percentage points) to 83.1% post implementation, accounting for unit size, maternal, baby and maternity unit factors, time trends, and AHSN. Further adjustment for early/late initiation of NPP activities increased the estimate to 9.5 percentage points (95% CI 4.3 to 14.7 percentage points). From a societal and lifetime perspective, the health gains and cost savings associated with the NPP effectiveness generated a net monetary benefit of £866 per preterm baby and the probability of the NPP being cost-effective was greater than 95%. CONCLUSION: This national QI programme was effective and cost-effective. National programmes delivered via coordinated regional clinical networks can accelerate uptake of evidence-based therapies in perinatal care.


Asunto(s)
Sulfato de Magnesio , Mejoramiento de la Calidad , Recién Nacido , Humanos , Embarazo , Femenino , Sulfato de Magnesio/uso terapéutico , Recien Nacido Prematuro , Parto , Inglaterra
7.
BMJ Open ; 12(12): e068252, 2022 12 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36526323

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To identify risk factors associated with prolonged length of hospital stay and staying in hospital longer than medically necessary following primary knee replacement surgery. DESIGN: Retrospective, longitudinal observational study. SETTING: Elective knee replacement surgeries between 2016 and 2019 were identified using routinely collected data from an NHS Trust in England. PARTICIPANTS: There were 2295 knee replacement patients with complete data included in analysis. The mean age was 68 (SD 11) and 60% were female. OUTCOME MEASURES: We assessed a binary length of stay outcome (>7 days), a continuous length of stay outcome (≤30 days) and a binary measure of whether patients remained in hospital when they were medically fit for discharge. RESULTS: The mean length of stay was 5.0 days (SD 3.9), 15.4% of patients were in hospital for >7 days and 7.1% remained in hospital when they were medically fit for discharge. Longer length of stay was associated with older age (b=0.08, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.09), female sex (b=0.36, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.67), high deprivation (b=0.98, 95% CI 0.47 to 1.48) and more comorbidities (b=2.48, 95% CI 0.15 to 4.81). Remaining in hospital beyond being medically fit for discharge was associated with older age (OR=1.07, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.09), female sex (OR=1.71, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.47) and high deprivation (OR=2.27, 95% CI 1.27 to 4.06). CONCLUSIONS: The regression models could be used to identify which patients are likely to occupy hospital beds for longer. This could be helpful in scheduling operations to aid hospital efficiency by planning these patients' operations for when the hospital is less busy.


Asunto(s)
Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Rodilla , Humanos , Femenino , Anciano , Masculino , Tiempo de Internación , Estudios Retrospectivos , Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Rodilla/efectos adversos , Alta del Paciente , Factores de Riesgo
8.
BMJ Open Qual ; 10(2)2021 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34031151

RESUMEN

The UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Preterm labour and birth guideline recommends use of magnesium sulfate (MgSO4) in deliveries below 30 weeks' gestation to prevent cerebral palsy and other neurological problems associated with preterm delivery. Despite national guidance, the uptake of MgSO4 administration in eligible women has been slow. National Health Service England has rolled out the PReCePT (PRevention of Cerebral Palsy in Pre-Term labour) quality improvement (QI) toolkit to increase uptake of MgSO4 in preterm deliveries. The toolkit is designed to increase maternity staff knowledge about MgSO4 and provides training and practical tools to help staff consider use in eligible women. The PReCePT trial compares the effectiveness of two different methods of implementing the QI toolkit (standard versus enhanced support). The standard support arm (control) receives the QI toolkit and regional-level support for a midwife/obstetric 'champion'. The enhanced support arm (intervention) receives this plus additional clinical backfill funding and unit-level QI microcoaching. It is funded by The Health Foundation. This is a cluster randomised controlled trial designed to include 48 maternity units randomised (2:1 ratio) to standard or enhanced support. Units are eligible for inclusion if they have 10 or more preterm (<30 weeks' gestation) deliveries annually and MgSO4 uptake of 70% or less. Randomisation is stratified by previous level of MgSO4 uptake. The QI intervention is implemented over 9 months. All units are followed up for a further 9 months. Blinding is not possible due to the nature of the intervention. The primary outcome is the proportion of MgSO4 uptake among eligible women at follow-up, adjusting for uptake before implementation of the toolkit. The effectiveness of the intervention will be assessed using weighted linear regression on data from the National Neonatal Research Database. Semistructured qualitative staff interviews will inform understanding of the process and outcomes. Economic evaluation will describe total costs and cost-effectiveness.Trial registration number SRCTN 40938673.


Asunto(s)
Trabajo de Parto Prematuro , Mejoramiento de la Calidad , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Inglaterra , Femenino , Humanos , Recién Nacido , Embarazo , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Medicina Estatal
9.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28649418

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: A research register (Reach West) has been established to facilitate recruitment of people and patients to health-related research. We conducted a prospective feasibility study to investigate the practicality of recruiting through outpatient clinics. METHODS: Patients over 18 years of age attending dental, eye or oncology outpatient clinics in an acute hospital in the West of England were provided with the opportunity to participate in Reach West. In Phase I, recruitment packs were handed to clinic attendees who could place completed consent forms in secure drop-box or return them later on-line or by post. In Phase II, recruitment packs were posted directly to patients with consent forms to be returned by post or on-line. Response rates by age, sex, postcode (for level of deprivation), and clinic type were recorded for those agreeing to participate on paper or on-line. RESULTS: In Phase I, 2,314 of 4,500 (51.4%) of recruitment packs were handed out to clinic attendees, and 114 (5%) consented to join Reach West. In Phase II, 7,173 of 9000 packs were posted (79.7%), and 387 (5.4%) consented to participate. The overall consent rate was 6% (580), with the majority doing so on paper (87%) rather than on-line. The sample was balanced by sex, but mostly comprised people over 50 years located in less deprived postcodes. Non-staff costs for postal recruitment were lower than hand-outs in clinic (£6.84 compared with £8.05 per participant). CONCLUSIONS: Recruiting participants to the Reach West register was feasible among those with oncology, dental or eye outpatient appointments by post or with packs given out in the clinic. Response rates were similar to those achieved for other registers. Recruitment of participants can be achieved through outpatient clinics but other strategies will also be required to attract large numbers of participants and more diverse populations.

10.
BMJ Open ; 7(8): e016906, 2017 Aug 21.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28827260

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of an expansion of liaison psychiatry services (LPS) on patient management, outcomes and treatment costs for emergency department (ED) attendances for self-harm. DESIGN: Retrospective before and after cohort study using routinely collected Self-Harm Surveillance Register data. SETTING: A large hospital in South West England. SUBJECTS: Patients attending the ED for self-harm. INTERVENTIONS: Extension of the LPS' working hours from 9:00 to 17:00, Monday to Friday to 8:00 to 22:00, 7 days a week, following a £250 000 annual investment MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number and characteristics of ED attendances for self-harm. The before and after cohorts were compared in terms of key process measures, including proportion of patients receiving a psychosocial assessment, average length of hospital stay, waiting times for assessment, proportion of patients who self-discharged without an assessment, levels of repeat self-harm attendances and mean cost per patient attendance. RESULTS: 298 patients attended ED for self-harm on 373 occasions between January and March 2014, and 318 patients attended on 381 occasions between January and March 2015. The proportion of ED attendances where patients received a psychosocial assessment increased from 57% to 68% (p=0.003), median waiting time decreased by 3 hours and 14 min (p=0.017), and the proportion of episodes where patients self-discharged without a psychosocial assessment decreased from 20% to 13% (p=0.022). The mean cost per patient attendance was marginally lower after the intervention (-£84; 95% CI -£254 to £77). CONCLUSIONS: The extended LPS seems to have had a favourable effect on the management and outcomes of self-harm patients. The cost of extending the LPS' working hours might be partially offset by more efficient assessment and discharge. The impact of the extended LPS on the care of hospitalised patients with mental health problems other than self-harm requires further evaluation.


Asunto(s)
Costos y Análisis de Costo/estadística & datos numéricos , Tiempo de Internación/estadística & datos numéricos , Servicios de Salud Mental/estadística & datos numéricos , Admisión del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Conducta Autodestructiva/epidemiología , Adulto , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/organización & administración , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Estimación de Kaplan-Meier , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Estudios Retrospectivos , Conducta Autodestructiva/diagnóstico , Conducta Autodestructiva/economía , Factores de Tiempo , Adulto Joven
11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28469897

RESUMEN

Improving staff engagement has become a priority for NHS leaders, although efforts in this area vary between organisations. University Hospital Bristol NHS Foundation Trust (UH Bristol) is a tertiary teaching hospital where concerns about staff satisfaction and communication were reflected in the 2014 staff survey. To improve staff engagement, a real-time feedback mechanism to capture staff experience and to facilitate feedback from local leaders, was developed and piloted using the Model for Improvement. Initially piloted in two areas in January 2015, the Staff Participation Engagement and Communication application (SPEaC-app) was gradually rolled out to 23 areas within the trust by November 2016. The 2015 staff survey revealed significant improvements in staff motivation, satisfaction with level of responsibility and involvement, and perceived support from managers. These improvements cannot be attributed to this new mechanism in their entirety, but local surveys indicated satisfaction with SPEaC-app, the majority reporting that giving feedback about their shift was valuable while fewer staff had noticed changes in their work area as a result of the comments made via SPEaC-app. Between March 2015 and November 2016, 9259 entries were recorded, with an average of 15 entries per day across all areas. Of the entries, 45.7% were positive and nearly 40% were negative, and 'team working' was the most frequent theme. The project has identified the key factors associated with usability of the SPEaC-app, including, access, location, reliability and perceived privacy of the SPEaC-app. The SPEaC-app is valued and used most by staff in areas where feedback from local leaders is regular, rapid and comprehensive, and where staff comments are acted upon, leading to tangible change. This suggests that strong, consistent local management is required in order to embed it in new areas. SPEaC-app has the potential to support local engagement between managers and their service delivery teams, stimulate tangible improvements in service delivery and support the process of change. Longer term data are needed to determine whether SPEaC-app can influence other factors including staff turnover, recruitment and retention.

12.
PLoS One ; 12(9): e0183998, 2017.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28934214

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on the accuracy of psychosis relapse prediction models. Our objective was to undertake a systematic review of relapse prediction models in psychosis. METHOD: We conducted a literature search including studies that developed and/or validated psychosis relapse prediction models, with or without external model validation. Models had to target people with psychosis and predict relapse. The key databases searched were; Embase, Medline, Medline In-Process Citations & Daily Update, PsychINFO, BIOSIS Citation Index, CINAHL, and Science Citation Index, from inception to September 2016. Prediction modelling studies were assessed for risk of bias and applicability using the PROBAST tool. RESULTS: There were two eligible studies, which included 33,088 participants. One developed a model using prodromal symptoms and illness-related variables, which explained 14% of relapse variance but was at high risk of bias. The second developed a model using administrative data which was moderately discriminative (C = 0.631) and associated with relapse (OR 1.11 95% CI 1.10, 1.12) and achieved moderately discriminative capacity when validated (C = 0.630). The risk of bias was low. CONCLUSIONS: Due to a lack of high quality evidence it is not possible to make any specific recommendations about the predictors that should be included in a prognostic model for relapse. For instance, it is unclear whether prodromal symptoms are useful for predicting relapse. The use of routine data to develop prediction models may be a more promising approach, although we could not empirically compare the two included studies.


Asunto(s)
Modelos Estadísticos , Trastornos Psicóticos/diagnóstico , Biología Computacional , Humanos , Pronóstico , Recurrencia
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