Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations.

BACKGROUND: Multivariable equations are recommended by primary prevention guidelines to assess absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current equations have several limitations. Therefore, we developed and validated the American Heart Association Predicting Risk of CVD EVENTs (PREVENT) equations among US adults 30 to 79 years of age without known CVD. METHODS: The derivation sample included individual-level participant data from 25 data sets (N=3 281 919) between 1992 and 2017. The primary outcome was CVD (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure). Predictors included traditional risk factors (smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, antihypertensive or statin use, and diabetes) and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Models were sex-specific, race-free, developed on the age scale, and adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death. Analyses were conducted in each data set and meta-analyzed. Discrimination was assessed using the Harrell C-statistic. Calibration was calculated as the slope of the observed versus predicted risk by decile. Additional equations to predict each CVD subtype (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure) and include optional predictors (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c), and social deprivation index were also developed. External validation was performed in 3 330 085 participants from 21 additional data sets. RESULTS: Among 6 612 004 adults included, mean±SD age was 53±12 years, and 56% were women. Over a mean±SD follow-up of 4.8±3.1 years, there were 211 515 incident total CVD events. The median C-statistics in external validation for CVD were 0.794 (interquartile interval, 0.763-0.809) in female and 0.757 (0.727-0.778) in male participants. The calibration slopes were 1.03 (interquartile interval, 0.81-1.16) and 0.94 (0.81-1.13) among female and male participants, respectively. Similar estimates for discrimination and calibration were observed for atherosclerotic CVD- and heart failure-specific models. The improvement in discrimination was small but statistically significant when urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, hemoglobin A1c, and social deprivation index were added together to the base model to total CVD (ΔC-statistic [interquartile interval] 0.004 [0.004-0.005] and 0.005 [0.004-0.007] among female and male participants, respectively). Calibration improved significantly when the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was added to the base model among those with marked albuminuria (>300 mg/g; 1.05 [0.84-1.20] versus 1.39 [1.14-1.65]; P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: PREVENT equations accurately and precisely predicted risk for incident CVD and CVD subtypes in a large, diverse, and contemporary sample of US adults by using routinely available clinical variables.

Stages of Valvular Heart Disease Among Older Adults in the Community: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association valvular heart disease (VHD) stage prevalence, progression, and association with incident cardiovascular diseases in late life. METHODS: Participants in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), a prospective community-based cohort study, underwent protocol echocardiography at ARIC visits 5 (2011-2013) and 7 (2018-2019), and their aortic stenosis, aortic regurgitation, mitral stenosis, and mitral regurgitation stage were defined according to American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines. The overall VHD stage prevalence at visit 5 was measured. The associations between VHD stages and incident adjudicated death, heart failure, coronary heart disease, stroke, and atrial fibrillation were assessed with Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, race, hypertension, diabetes, prior myocardial infarction, heart failure, body mass index, study center, systolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and low-density lipoprotein at visit 5. Longitudinal changes in VHD stage prevalence over ≈6 years were estimated with inverse probability of attrition weights to account for participant attrition. RESULTS: Among 6118 ARIC participants, the mean±SD age was 76±5 years, 42% were male, and 22% reported Black race. Stage A VHD was present in 39%, stage B in 17%, and stage C/D in 1.1%;, 0.7% had previously undergone valve replacement or repair. A graded association was observed between stage A, B, and C/D VHD and risk of all-cause mortality, incident heart failure, incident atrial fibrillation, and incident coronary heart disease, but not incident stroke. Similar findings were observed for stages of each valvular lesion individually. During the 6.6 years (interquartile range, 6.1-7.0 years) between visits 5 and 7 (mean age, 81±4 years), the prevalence of freedom from VHD stage decreased from 43% to 24%, whereas the prevalence of stage C/D VHD increased from 1% to 7%. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical VHD is common in older adults, with 39% at risk (stage A) and 17% with progressive VHD (stage B), and is independently associated with risk of incident cardiovascular events. VHD stages progress over 6 years in late life, with a several-fold increase in prevalence of severe VHD (stage C/D), highlighting the public health importance of interventions to mitigate VHD progression.

Integrating essence of "time" for blood pressure control in nephrology care.

Controlling blood pressure (BP) is essential in the management of patients with chronic kidney disease. Reflecting the intrinsic variability of BP, several parameters of BP over time have been shown to predict adverse outcomes. Systolic BP time in target range has been recently proposed as a new promising parameter. Park et al. confirmed its prognostic value in patients with chronic kidney disease. We review the potential clinical usefulness and challenges of this parameter in nephrology care.

Safety and Efficacy of Vadadustat for Anemia in Patients Undergoing Dialysis.

BACKGROUND: Vadadustat is an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor, a class of compounds that stimulate endogenous erythropoietin production. METHODS: We conducted two randomized, open-label, noninferiority phase 3 trials to evaluate the safety and efficacy of vadadustat, as compared with darbepoetin alfa, in patients with anemia and incident or prevalent dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (DD-CKD). The primary safety end point, assessed in a time-to-event analysis, was the first occurrence of a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE, a composite of death from any cause, a nonfatal myocardial infarction, or a nonfatal stroke), pooled across the trials (noninferiority margin, 1.25). A key secondary safety end point was the first occurrence of a MACE plus hospitalization for either heart failure or a thromboembolic event. The primary and key secondary efficacy end points were the mean change in hemoglobin from baseline to weeks 24 to 36 and from baseline to weeks 40 to 52, respectively, in each trial (noninferiority margin, -0.75 g per deciliter). RESULTS: A total of 3923 patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive vadadustat or darbepoetin alfa: 369 in the incident DD-CKD trial and 3554 in the prevalent DD-CKD trial. In the pooled analysis, a first MACE occurred in 355 patients (18.2%) in the vadadustat group and in 377 patients (19.3%) in the darbepoetin alfa group (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83 to 1.11). The mean differences between the groups in the change in hemoglobin concentration were -0.31 g per deciliter (95% CI, -0.53 to -0.10) at weeks 24 to 36 and -0.07 g per deciliter (95% CI, -0.34 to 0.19) at weeks 40 to 52 in the incident DD-CKD trial and -0.17 g per deciliter (95% CI, -0.23 to -0.10) and -0.18 g per deciliter (95% CI, -0.25 to -0.12), respectively, in the prevalent DD-CKD trial. The incidence of serious adverse events in the vadadustat group was 49.7% in the incident DD-CKD trial and 55.0% in the prevalent DD-CKD trial, and the incidences in the darbepoetin alfa group were 56.5% and 58.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with anemia and CKD who were undergoing dialysis, vadadustat was noninferior to darbepoetin alfa with respect to cardiovascular safety and correction and maintenance of hemoglobin concentrations. (Funded by Akebia Therapeutics and Otsuka Pharmaceutical; INNO2VATE ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT02865850 and NCT02892149.).

Vadadustat in Patients with Anemia and Non-Dialysis-Dependent CKD.

BACKGROUND: Vadadustat is an oral hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor, a class of drugs that stabilize HIF and stimulate erythropoietin and red-cell production. METHODS: In two phase 3, randomized, open-label, active-controlled, noninferiority trials, we compared vadadustat with the erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) darbepoetin alfa in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD) not previously treated with an ESA who had a hemoglobin concentration of less than 10 g per deciliter and in patients with ESA-treated NDD-CKD and a hemoglobin concentration of 8 to 11 g per deciliter (in the United States) or 9 to 12 g per deciliter (in other countries). The primary safety end point, assessed in a time-to-event analysis, was the first major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; a composite of death from any cause, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke), pooled across the two trials. Secondary safety end points included expanded MACE (MACE plus hospitalization for either heart failure or a thromboembolic event). The primary and key secondary efficacy end points in each trial were the mean change in hemoglobin concentration from baseline during two evaluation periods: weeks 24 through 36 and weeks 40 through 52. RESULTS: A total of 1751 patients with ESA-untreated NDD-CKD and 1725 with ESA-treated NDD-CKD underwent randomization in the two trials. In the pooled analysis, in which 1739 patients received vadadustat and 1732 received darbepoetin alfa, the hazard ratio for MACE was 1.17 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.36), which did not meet the prespecified noninferiority margin of 1.25. The mean between-group differences in the change in the hemoglobin concentration at weeks 24 through 36 were 0.05 g per deciliter (95% CI, -0.04 to 0.15) in the trial involving ESA-untreated patients and -0.01 g per deciliter (95% CI, -0.09 to 0.07) in the trial involving ESA-treated patients, which met the prespecified noninferiority margin of -0.75 g per deciliter. CONCLUSIONS: Vadadustat, as compared with darbepoetin alfa, met the prespecified noninferiority criterion for hematologic efficacy but not the prespecified noninferiority criterion for cardiovascular safety in patients with NDD-CKD. (Funded by Akebia Therapeutics and Otsuka Pharmaceutical; PRO2TECT ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT02648347 and NCT02680574.).

Premorbid physical activity and prognosis after incident myocardial infarction: The atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

BACKGROUND: High to moderate levels of physical activity (PA) are associated with low risk of incident cardiovascular disease. However, it is unclear whether the benefits of PA in midlife extend to cardiovascular health following myocardial infarction (MI) in later life. METHODS: Among 1,111 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants with incident MI during Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities follow-up (mean age 73 [SD 9] years at MI, 54% men, 21% Black), PA on average 11.9 (SD 6.9) years prior to incident MI (premorbid PA) was evaluated as the average score of PA between visit 1 (1987-1989) and visit 3 (1993-1995) using a modified Baecke questionnaire. Total and domain-specific PA (sport, nonsport leisure, and work PA) was analyzed for associations with composite and individual outcomes of mortality, recurrent MI, and stroke after index MI using multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.6 (IQI 1.0-10.5) years after incident MI, 823 participants (74%) developed a composite outcome. The 10-year cumulative incidence of the composite outcome was lower in the highest, as compared to the lowest tertile of premorbid total PA (56% vs. 70%, respectively). This association remained statistically significant even after adjusting for potential confounders (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.80 [0.67-0.96] for the highest vs. lowest tertile). For individual outcomes, high premorbid total PA was associated with a low risk of recurrent MI (corresponding aHR 0.64 [0.44, 0.93]). When domain-specific PA was analyzed, similar results were seen for sport and work PA. The association was strongest in the first year following MI (e.g., aHR of composite outcome 0.66 [95% CI 0.47, 0.91] for the highest vs. lowest tertile of total PA). CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid PA was associated positively with post-MI cardiovascular health. Our results demonstrate the additional prognostic advantages of PA beyond reducing the risk of incident MI.

Factors Associated With Non-vaccination for Influenza Among Patients With CKD: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Vaccination for influenza is strongly recommended for people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to their immunocompromised state. Identifying risk factors for not receiving an influenza vaccine (non-vaccination) could inform strategies for improving vaccine uptake in this high-risk population. STUDY DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3,692 Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study (CRIC) participants. EXPOSURE: Demographic factors, social determinants of health, clinical conditions, and health behaviors. OUTCOME: Influenza non-vaccination, which was assessed based on a receipt of influenza vaccine ascertained during annual clinic visits in a subset of participants who were under nephrology care. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Mixed-effects Poisson models to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs). RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2020, the pooled mean vaccine uptake was 72% (mean age, 66 years; 44% female; 44% Black race). In multivariable models, factors significantly associated with influenza non-vaccination were younger age (APR, 2.16 [95% CI, 1.85-2.52] for<50 vs≥75 years), Black race (APR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.43-1.75] vs White race), lower education (APR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.04-1.39 for less than high school vs college graduate]), lower annual household income (APR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.06-1.49] for <$20,000 vs >$100,000), formerly married status (APR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.09-1.35] vs currently married), and nonemployed status (APR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.02-1.24] vs employed). In contrast, participants with diabetes (APR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.73-0.87] vs no diabetes), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (APR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.70-0.92] vs no COPD), end-stage kidney disease (APR, 0.64 [0.56 to 0.76] vs estimated glomerular filtration rate≥60mL/min/1.73m2), frailty (APR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.74-0.99] vs no frailty), and ideal physical activity (APR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.82-0.99] vs. physically inactive) were less likely to have non-vaccination status. LIMITATIONS: Possible residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults with CKD receiving nephrology care, younger adults, Black individuals, and those with adverse social determinants of health were more likely to have the influenza non-vaccination status. Strategies are needed to address these disparities and reduce barriers to vaccination. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Identifying risk factors for not receiving an influenza vaccine ("non-vaccination") in people living with kidney disease, who are at risk of influenza and its complications, could inform strategies for improving vaccine uptake. In this study, we examined whether demographic factors, social determinants of health, and clinical conditions were linked to the status of not receiving an influenza vaccine among people living with kidney disease and receiving nephrology care. We found that younger adults, Black individuals, and those with adverse social determinants of health were more likely to not receive the influenza vaccine. These findings suggest the need for strategies to address these disparities and reduce barriers to vaccination in people living with kidney disease.

Associations of Cardiac Biomarkers With Peripheral Artery Disease and Peripheral Neuropathy in US Adults Without Prevalent Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-troponin T), and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-troponin I) are increasingly being recommended for risk stratification for a variety of cardiovascular outcomes. The aims of our study were to establish the prevalence and associations of elevated NT-proBNP, hs-troponin T, and hs-troponin I with lower extremity disease, including peripheral artery disease (PAD) and peripheral neuropathy (PN), in the US general adult population without known cardiovascular disease. We also assessed whether the combination of PAD or PN and elevated cardiac biomarkers was associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the associations of NT-proBNP, hs-troponin T, and hs-troponin I with PAD (based on ankle-brachial index <0.90) and PN (diagnosed by monofilament testing) in adult participants aged ≥40 years of age without prevalent cardiovascular disease in NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) 1999 to 2004. We calculated the prevalence of elevated cardiac biomarkers among adults with PAD and PN and used multivariable logistic regression to assess the associations of each cardiac biomarker, modeled using clinical cut points, with PAD and PN separately. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to assess the adjusted associations of cross categories of clinical categories of each cardiac biomarker and PAD or PN with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. RESULTS: In US adults aged ≥40 years, the prevalence (±SE) of PAD was 4.1±0.2% and the prevalence of PN was 12.0±0.5%. The prevalence of elevated NT-proBNP (≥125 ng/L), hs-troponin T (≥6 ng/L), and hs-troponin I (≥6 ng/L for men and ≥4 ng/L for women) was 54.0±3.4%, 73.9±3.5%, and 32.3±3.7%, respectively, among adults with PAD and 32.9±1.9%, 72.8±2.0%, and 22.7±1.9%, respectively, among adults with PN. There was a strong, graded association of higher clinical categories of NT-proBNP with PAD after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors. Clinical categories of elevated hs-troponin T and hs-troponin I were strongly associated with PN in adjusted models. After a maximum follow-up of 21 years, elevated NT-proBNP, hs-troponin T, and hs-troponin I were each associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, with higher risks of death observed among adults with elevated cardiac biomarkers plus PAD or PN compared with elevated biomarkers alone. CONCLUSIONS: Our study establishes a high burden of subclinical cardiovascular disease defined by cardiac biomarkers in people with PAD or PN. Cardiac biomarkers provided prognostic information for mortality within and across PAD and PN status, supporting the use of these biomarkers for risk stratification among adults without prevalent cardiovascular disease.

Proteomics Analysis of Genetic Liability of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Identifies Plasma Neogenin and Kit Ligand: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have reported 23 gene loci related to abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA)-a potentially lethal condition characterized by a weakened dilated vessel wall. This study aimed to identify proteomic signatures and pathways related to these risk loci to better characterize AAA genetic susceptibility. METHODS: Plasma concentrations of 4870 proteins were determined using a DNA aptamer-based array. Linear regression analysis estimated the associations between the 23 risk alleles and plasma protein levels with adjustments for potential confounders in a race-stratified analysis of 1671 Black and 7241 White participants. Significant proteins were then evaluated for their prediction of clinical AAA (454 AAA events in 11 064 individuals), and those significantly associated with AAA were further interrogated using Mendelian randomization analysis. RESULTS: Risk variants proximal to PSRC1-CELSR2-SORT1, PCIF1-ZNF335-MMP9, RP11-136O12.2/TRIB1, ZNF259/APOA5, IL6R, PCSK9, LPA, and APOE were associated with 118 plasma proteins in Whites and 59 were replicated in Black participants. Novel associations with clinical AAA incidence were observed for kit ligand (HR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.42-0.82] for top versus first quintiles) and neogenin (HR, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.46-0.88]) over a median 21.2-year follow-up; neogenin was also associated with ultrasound-detected asymptomatic AAA (N=4295; 57 asymptomatic AAA cases). Mendelian randomization inverse variance weighted estimates suggested that AAA risk is promoted by lower levels of kit ligand (OR per SD=0.67; P=1.4×10-5) and neogenin (OR per SD=0.50; P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Low levels of neogenin and kit ligand may be novel risk factors for AAA development in potentially causal pathways. These findings provide insights and potential targets to reduce AAA susceptibility.

Guidelines for clinical evaluation of chronic kidney disease in early stages : AMED research on regulatory science of pharmaceuticals and medical devices.

BACKGROUND: For the development of pharmaceutical products in kidney field, appropriate surrogate endpoints which can predict long-term prognosis are needed as an alternative to hard endpoints, such as end-stage kidney disease. Though international workshop has proposed estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) slope reduction of 0.5-1.0 mL/min/1.73 m /year and 30% decrease in albuminuria/proteinuria as surrogate endpoints in early and advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), it was not clear whether these are applicable to Japanese patients. METHODS: We analyzed J-CKD-DB and CKD-JAC, Japanese databases/cohorts of CKD patients, and J-DREAMS, a Japanese database of patients with diabetes mellitus to investigate the applicability of eGFR slope and albuminuria/proteinuria to the Japanese population. Systematic review on those endpoints was also conducted including the results of clinical trials published after the above proposal. RESULTS: Our analysis showed an association between eGFR slope and the risk of end-stage kidney disease. A 30% decrease in albuminuria/proteinuria over 2 years corresponded to a 20% decrease in the risk of end-stage kidney disease patients with baseline UACR ≥ 30 mg/gCre or UPCR ≥ 0.15 g/gCre in the analysis of CKD-JAC, though this analysis was not performed on the other database/cohort. Those results suggested similar trends to those of the systematic review. CONCLUSION: The results suggested that eGFR slope and decreased albuminuria/proteinuria may be used as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for early CKD (including diabetic kidney disease) in Japanese population, though its validity and cutoff values must be carefully considered based on the latest evidence and other factors.

Association between Statin use and Incident Peripheral Artery Disease According to Race, Age, and Presence of Depression in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is associated with high morbidity and mortality and has been commonly described as a coronary heart disease equivalent. Statin medications are recommended for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) among other indications. Therefore, understanding the longitudinal relationship of incident PAD is necessary to inform future research on how to prevent the disease. Depression complicates CVD patients' ability to properly adhere to their medications, yet the effect of depression on the relationship between statin use and incident PAD is understudied. People with PAD have a higher incidence of depressive symptoms than people without PAD. Black American and Hispanic populations are disproportionately affected by both PAD and depression yet research on the modifying effect of either race or depression on the relationship between statin use and onset of PAD is minimal. While statin utilization is highest for ages 75-84 years, there is minimal evidence of favorable risk-benefit balance. Consequently, in this project, we examined the relationship between statin use and incident PAD and whether this relationship is modified by race/ethnicity, depressive symptoms, or age. METHODS: We used data on participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis from visit 1 (2000) through study visit 6 (2020) who had three separate measurements of the ankle-brachial index (ABI) taken at visit 1, visit 3, and visit 5. Incident PAD was defined as 1) incident lower extremity amputation or revascularization or 2) ABI less than 0.90 coupled with ABI decrease greater than 0.15 over the follow-up period. Statin use was noted on the study visit prior to incident PAD diagnosis while depressive symptoms were measured at exam 1, visit 3, and visit 5. Propensity score matching was implemented to create balance between the participants in the two treatment groups, that is, statin-treated and statin-untreated groups, to reduce the problem of confounding by indication. Propensity scores were calculated using multivariate logistic regression model to estimate the probability of receiving statin treatment. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to investigate the relationship between time-dependent statin use as well as other risk factors with incident PAD, overall and stratified by 1) race, 2) depression status, and 3) age. RESULTS: A total of 4,210 participants were included in the final matched analytic cohort. There were 810 incident cases (19.3%) of PAD that occurred over an average (mean) of 11.3 years (SD = 5.7) of follow-up time. In the statin-treated group, and with an average follow-up time of 12.5 years (SD = 5.6), there were 281 cases (13.4%) of incident PAD with the average follow-up time of 10.1 years (SD = 5.5), whereas in the statin-untreated group, there were 531 cases (25.2%) (P < 0.001). Results demonstrate a lower risk of PAD event in the statin-treated group compared to the untreated group (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.33-0.62) over the span of 18.5 years. The interactions between 1) depression and 2) race with statin use for incident PAD were not significant. However, other risk factors which were significant included Black American race that had approximately 30% lower hazard of PAD compared to non-Hispanic White (HR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.58-0.84); age-stratified models were also fitted, and stain use was still a significant treatment factor for ages 45-54 (HR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.33-0.63), 55-64 (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.46-0.79), and 65-74 years (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.48-0.78) but not for ages 75-84 years. CONCLUSIONS: Statin use was associated with a decreased risk of incident PAD for those under the age of 75 years. Neither race nor depression significantly modified the relationship between statin use and incident PAD; however, the risk of incident PAD was lower among Black Americans. These findings highlight that the benefit of statin may wane for those over the age of 75 years. Findings also suggest that statin use may not be compromised in those living with depression.

On-demand mobile hypertension training for primary health care workers in Nigeria: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Only one out of every ten Nigerian adults with hypertension has their blood pressure controlled. Health worker training is essential to improve hypertension diagnosis and treatment. In-person training has limitations that mobile, on-demand training might address. This pilot study evaluated a self-paced, case-based, mobile-optimized online training to diagnose and manage hypertension for Nigerian health workers. METHODS: Twelve hypertension training modules were developed, based on World Health Organization and Nigerian guidelines. After review by local academic and government partners, the course was piloted by Nigerian health workers at government-owned primary health centers. Primary care physician, nurse, and community health worker participants completed the course on their own smartphones. Before and after the course, hypertension knowledge was evaluated with multiple-choice questions. Learners provided feedback by responding to questions on a Likert scale. RESULTS: Out of 748 users who sampled the course, 574 enrolled, of whom 431 (75%) completed the course. The average pre-test score of completers was 65.4%, which increased to 78.2% on the post-test (P < 0.001, paired t-test). Health workers who were not part of existing hypertension control programs had lower pre-test scores and larger score gains. Most participants (96.1%) agreed that the training was applicable to their work, and nearly all (99.8%) agreed that they enjoyed the training. CONCLUSIONS: An on-demand mobile digital hypertension training increases knowledge of hypertension management among Nigerian health workers. If offered at scale, such courses can be a tool to build health workforce capacity through initial and refresher training on current clinical guidelines in hypertension and other chronic diseases in Nigeria as well as other countries.

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation: Evaluation of Novel Input Variables including eGFR Estimated Using the CKD-EPI 2021 Equation in 59 Cohorts.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. BACKGROUND: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . METHODS: Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk of mortality, resulting in more accurate calibration in those specific subgroups but not overall. CONCLUSIONS: The original KFRE is generally accurate for eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 when using the CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Incorporating competing risk methodology and splines for eGFR may improve calibration in low-risk settings with longer time horizons. Including historical averages, eGFR slopes, or a competing risk design did not meaningfully alter KFRE performance in most circumstances.

Major cardiovascular events and subsequent risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy: a CKD Prognosis Consortium study.

AIMS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 25 903 761 individuals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g); 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9-3.3], 2.0 (1.9-2.1), 4.5 (4.2-4.9), 2.8 (2.7-3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43-50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence. CONCLUSION: Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.

Proteomic analysis of diabetes genetic risk scores identifies complement C2 and neuropilin-2 as predictors of type 2 diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes is well-established, and genetic risk scores (GRS) have been developed that capture heritable liabilities for type 2 diabetes phenotypes. However, the proteins through which these genetic variants influence risk have not been thoroughly investigated. This study aimed to identify proteins and pathways through which type 2 diabetes risk variants may influence pathophysiology. METHODS: Using a proteomics data-driven approach in a discovery sample of 7241 White participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC) cohort and a replication sample of 1674 Black ARIC participants, we interrogated plasma levels of 4870 proteins and four GRS of specific type 2 diabetes phenotypes related to beta cell function, insulin resistance, lipodystrophy, BMI/blood lipid abnormalities and a composite score of all variants combined. RESULTS: Twenty-two plasma proteins were identified in White participants after Bonferroni correction. Of the 22 protein-GRS associations that were statistically significant, 10 were replicated in Black participants and all but one were directionally consistent. In a secondary analysis, 18 of the 22 proteins were found to be associated with prevalent type 2 diabetes and ten proteins were associated with incident type 2 diabetes. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation indicated that complement C2 may be causally related to greater type 2 diabetes risk (inverse variance weighted estimate: OR 1.65 per SD; p=7.0 × 10-3), while neuropilin-2 was inversely associated (OR 0.44 per SD; p=8.0 × 10-3). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Identified proteins may represent viable intervention or pharmacological targets to prevent, reverse or slow type 2 diabetes progression, and further research is needed to pursue these targets.

Cigarette Smoking and Risk of Hospitalization With Acute Kidney Injury: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Smoking is a modifiable risk factor for various adverse events. However, little is known about the association of smoking with the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in the general population. This study investigated the association of cigarette smoking with the risk of AKI. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 14,571 participants (mean age 55±6 years, 55% women, and 25% Black participants) from the ARIC study visit 1 (1987-1989) followed through December 31, 2019. EXPOSURE: Smoking parameters (status, duration, pack-years, intensity, and years since cessation). OUTCOME: Incident hospitalization with AKI, defined by a hospital discharge with a diagnostic code relevant to AKI. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of 26.3 years, 2,984 participants had an incident hospitalization with AKI. Current and former smokers had a significantly higher risk of AKI compared to never smokers after adjusting for potential confounders (HR, 2.22 [95% CI, 2.02-2.45] and 1.12 [1.02-1.23], respectively). A dose-response association was consistently seen for each of smoking duration, pack-years, and intensity with AKI (eg, HR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.16-1.22] per 10 years of smoking). When years since cessation were considered as a time-varying exposure, the risk of AKI associated with smoking compared with current smokers began to decrease after 10 years, and became similar to never smokers at 30 years (HR for≥30 years, 1.07 [95% CI, 0.97-1.20] vs never smokers). LIMITATIONS: Self-reported smoking measurements and missing outpatient AKI cases. CONCLUSIONS: In a community-based cohort, all smoking parameters were robustly associated with the risk of AKI. Smoking cessation was associated with decreased risk of AKI, although the excess risk lasted up to 30 years. Our study supports the importance of preventing smoking initiation and promoting smoking cessation for the risk of AKI. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Smoking is a behavior that is associated with many negative health effects. It is not well understood how smoking relates to the occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in the community. In this study, we looked at data from a group of 14,571 adults who were followed for 26 years to see how different aspects of smoking (such as whether someone smoked, how long they smoked for, how many cigarettes they smoked per day, and whether they quit smoking) were related to AKI. We found that smoking was strongly linked to an increased risk of AKI. This risk decreased after 5-10 years of quitting smoking, but the excess risk lasted up to 30 years. This study shows the importance of preventing people from starting smoking and to encourage smokers to quit to reduce their risk of AKI.

Cardiac Structure and Function and Subsequent Kidney Disease Progression in Adults With CKD: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Heart-kidney crosstalk is recognized as the cardiorenal syndrome. We examined the association of cardiac function and structure with the risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) in a chronic kidney disease (CKD) population. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3,027 participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study. EXPOSURE: Five preselected variables that assess different aspects of cardiac structure and function: left ventricular mass index (LVMI), LV volume, left atrial (LA) area, peak tricuspid regurgitation (TR) velocity, and left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) as assessed by echocardiography. OUTCOME: Incident KFRT (primary outcome), and annual estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope (secondary outcome). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable Cox models and mixed-effects models. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 59±11 SD years, 54% were men, and mean eGFR was 43±17mL/min/1.73m2. Between 2003 and 2018 (median follow-up, 9.9 years), 883 participants developed KFRT. Higher LVMI, LV volume, LA area, peak TR velocity, and lower EF were each statistically significantly associated with an increased risk of KFRT, with corresponding HRs for the highest versus lowest quartiles (lowest vs highest for EF) of 1.70 (95% CI, 1.27-2.26), 1.50 (95% CI, 1.19-1.90), 1.43 (95% CI, 1.11-1.84), 1.45 (95% CI, 1.06-1.96), and 1.26 (95% CI, 1.03-1.56), respectively. For the secondary outcome, participants in the highest versus lowest quartiles (lowest vs highest for EF) had a statistically significantly faster eGFR decline, except for LA area (ΔeGFR slope per year, -0.57 [95% CI, -0.68 to-0.46] mL/min/1.73m2 for LVMI, -0.25 [95% CI, -0.35 to-0.15] mL/min/1.73m2 for LV volume, -0.01 [95% CI, -0.12 to-0.01] mL/min/1.73m2 for LA area, -0.42 [95% CI, -0.56 to-0.28] mL/min/1.73m2 for peak TR velocity, and -0.11 [95% CI, -0.20 to-0.01] mL/min/1.73m2 for EF, respectively). LIMITATIONS: The possibility of residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple aspects of cardiac structure and function were statistically significantly associated with the risk of KFRT. These findings suggest that cardiac abnormalities and incidence of KFRT are potentially on the same causal pathway related to the interaction between hypertension, heart failure, and coronary artery diseases. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Heart disease and kidney disease are known to interact with each other. In this study, we examined whether cardiac abnormalities, as assessed by echocardiography, were linked to the subsequent progression of kidney disease among people living with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We found that people with abnormalities in heart structure and function had a greater risk of progression to advanced CKD that required kidney replacement therapy and had a faster rate of decline in kidney function. Our study indicates the potential role of abnormal heart structure and function in the progression of kidney disease among people living with CKD.

Epidemiology of Peripheral Artery Disease and Polyvascular Disease.

Atherosclerotic lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) is increasingly recognized as an important cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality that affects >230 million people worldwide. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors, including advanced age, smoking, and diabetes, are strongly linked to an increase risk of PAD. Although PAD has been historically underappreciated compared with coronary artery disease and stroke, greater attention on PAD in recent years has led to important new epidemiological insights in the areas of thrombosis, inflammation, dyslipidemia, and microvascular disease. In addition, the concept of polyvascular disease, or clinically evident atherosclerosis in multiple arterial beds, is increasingly identified as a particularly malignant cardiovascular disease worthy of special clinical attention and further study. It is noteworthy that PAD may increase the risk of adverse outcomes in similar or even greater magnitude than coronary disease or stroke. In this review, we highlight important new advances in the epidemiology of PAD with a particular focus on polyvascular disease, emerging biomarkers, and differential risk pathways for PAD compared with other atherosclerotic diseases.

Risk Prediction Models for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: The CRIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with CKD may be at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, there are no ASCVD risk prediction models developed in CKD populations to inform clinical care and prevention. METHODS: We developed and validated 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models in patients with CKD that included participants without self-reported cardiovascular disease from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. ASCVD was defined as the first occurrence of adjudicated fatal and nonfatal stroke or myocardial infarction. Our models used clinically available variables and novel biomarkers. Model performance was evaluated based on discrimination, calibration, and net reclassification improvement. RESULTS: Of 2604 participants (mean age 55.8 years; 52.0% male) included in the analyses, 252 had incident ASCVD within 10 years of baseline. Compared with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]=0.730), a model with coefficients estimated within the CRIC sample had higher discrimination (P=0.03), achieving an AUC of 0.736 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.649 to 0.826). The CRIC model developed using clinically available variables had an AUC of 0.760 (95% CI, 0.678 to 0.851). The CRIC biomarker-enriched model had an AUC of 0.771 (95% CI, 0.674 to 0.853), which was significantly higher than the clinical model (P=0.001). Both the clinical and biomarker-enriched models were well-calibrated and improved reclassification of nonevents compared with the pooled cohort equations (6.6%; 95% CI, 3.7% to 9.6% and 10.0%; 95% CI, 6.8% to 13.3%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed in patients with CKD, including novel kidney and cardiac biomarkers, performed better than equations developed for the general population using only traditional risk factors.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Albuminuria, and Adverse Outcomes: An Individual-Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Chronic kidney disease (low estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or albuminuria) affects approximately 14% of adults in the US. Objective: To evaluate associations of lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine combined with cystatin C, and more severe albuminuria with adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular outcomes, and other health outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-participant data meta-analysis of 27 503 140 individuals from 114 global cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine alone) and 720 736 individuals from 20 cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C) and 9 067 753 individuals from 114 cohorts (albuminuria) from 1980 to 2021. Exposures: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 equations for eGFR based on creatinine alone and eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C; and albuminuria estimated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR). Main Outcomes and Measures: The risk of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, acute kidney injury, any hospitalization, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral artery disease. The analyses were performed within each cohort and summarized with random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine alone (mean age, 54 years [SD, 17 years]; 51% were women; mean follow-up time, 4.8 years [SD, 3.3 years]), the mean eGFR was 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 11 mg/g (IQR, 8-16 mg/g). Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C (mean age, 59 years [SD, 12 years]; 53% were women; mean follow-up time, 10.8 years [SD, 4.1 years]), the mean eGFR was 88 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 9 mg/g (IQR, 6-18 mg/g). Lower eGFR (whether based on creatinine alone or based on creatinine and cystatin C) and higher UACR were each significantly associated with higher risk for each of the 10 adverse outcomes, including those in the mildest categories of chronic kidney disease. For example, among people with a UACR less than 10 mg/g, an eGFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 based on creatinine alone was associated with significantly higher hospitalization rates compared with an eGFR of 90 to 104 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2-1.3]; 161 vs 79 events per 1000 person-years; excess absolute risk, 22 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 19-25 events per 1000 person-years]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective analysis of 114 cohorts, lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C, and more severe UACR were each associated with increased rates of 10 adverse outcomes, including adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular diseases, and hospitalizations.