Advanced child tax credit payments and national child abuse hotline contacts, 2019-2022.

BACKGROUND: Children in households experiencing poverty are disproportionately exposed to maltreatment. Income support policies have been associated with reductions in child abuse and neglect. The advance child tax credit (CTC) payments may reduce child maltreatment by improving the economic security of some families. No national studies have examined the association between advance CTC payments and child abuse and neglect. This study examines the association between the advance CTC payments and child abuse and neglect-related contacts to the Childhelp National Child Abuse Hotline. METHODS: A time series study of contacts to the Childhelp National Child Abuse Hotline between January 2019 and December 2022 was used to examine the association between the payments and hotline contacts. An interrupted time series (ITS) exploiting the variation in the advance CTC payments was estimated using fixed effects. RESULTS: The CTC advance payments were associated with an immediate 13.8% (95% CI -17.5% to -10.0%) decrease in contacts to the hotline in the ITS model. Following the expiration of the advance CTC payments, there was a significant and gradual 0.1% (95% CI +0.0% to +0.2%) daily increase in contacts. Sensitivity analyses found significant reductions in contacts following each payment, however, the reductions were associated with the last three of the six total payments. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest the advance CTC payments may reduce child abuse and neglect-related hotline contacts and continue to build the evidence base for associations between income-support policies and reductions in child abuse and neglect.

Prevalence of Adverse Childhood Experiences Among U.S. Adults - Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2011-2020.

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are defined as preventable, potentially traumatic events that occur among persons aged <18 years and are associated with numerous negative outcomes; data from 25 states indicate that ACEs are common among U.S. adults (1). Disparities in ACEs are often attributable to social and economic environments in which some families live (2,3). Understanding the prevalence of ACEs, stratified by sociodemographic characteristics, is essential to addressing and preventing ACEs and eliminating disparities, but population-level ACEs data collection has been sporadic (1). Using 2011-2020 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data, CDC provides estimates of ACEs prevalence among U.S. adults in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and by key sociodemographic characteristics. Overall, 63.9% of U.S. adults reported at least one ACE; 17.3% reported four or more ACEs. Experiencing four or more ACEs was most common among females (19.2%), adults aged 25-34 years (25.2%), non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) adults (32.4%), non-Hispanic multiracial adults (31.5%), adults with less than a high school education (20.5%), and those who were unemployed (25.8%) or unable to work (28.8%). Prevalence of experiencing four or more ACEs varied substantially across jurisdictions, from 11.9% (New Jersey) to 22.7% (Oregon). Patterns in prevalence of individual and total number of ACEs varied by jurisdiction and sociodemographic characteristics, reinforcing the importance of jurisdiction and local collection of ACEs data to guide targeted prevention and decrease inequities. CDC has released prevention resources, including Preventing Adverse Childhood Experiences: Leveraging the Best Available Evidence, to help provide jurisdictions and communities with the best available strategies to prevent violence and other ACEs, including guidance on how to implement those strategies for maximum impact (4-6).

Emergency Department Visits for Firearm Injuries Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic - United States, January 2019-December 2022.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. firearm homicide rate increased by nearly 35%, and the firearm suicide rate remained high during 2019-2020 (1). Provisional mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System indicate that rates continued to increase in 2021: the rates of firearm homicide and firearm suicide in 2021 were the highest recorded since 1993 and 1990, respectively (2). Firearm injuries treated in emergency departments (EDs), the primary setting for the immediate medical treatment of such injuries, gradually increased during 2018-2019 (3); however, more recent patterns of ED visits for firearm injuries, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, are unknown. Using data from the National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP),* CDC examined changes in ED visits for initial firearm injury encounters during January 2019-December 2022, by year, patient sex, and age group. Increases in the overall weekly number of firearm injury ED visits were detected at certain periods during the COVID-19 pandemic. One such period during which there was a gradual increase was March 2020, which coincided with both the declaration of COVID-19 as a national emergency† and a pronounced decrease in the total number of ED visits. Another increase in firearm injury ED visits occurred in late May 2020, concurrent with a period marked by public outcry related to social injustice and structural racism (4), changes in state-level COVID-19-specific prevention strategies,§ decreased engagement in COVID-19 mitigation behaviors (5), and reported increases in some types of crime (4). Compared with 2019, the average number of weekly ED visits for firearm injury was 37% higher in 2020, 36% higher in 2021, and 20% higher in 2022. A comprehensive approach is needed to prevent and respond to firearm injuries in communities, including strategies that engage community and street outreach programs, implement hospital-based violence prevention programs, improve community physical environments, enhance secure storage of firearms, and strengthen social and economic supports.

Violent Victimization During Childhood in the United States: Associations With Revictimization and Health.

Childhood violence victimization is a serious adverse childhood experience with lasting health impacts. This study examined the prevalence and characteristics of five forms of childhood violence victimization and their association with revictimization and negative health conditions among adults. Data are from the 2010-2012 National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey. Age at first victimization and perpetrator sex were assessed; adjusted odds ratios assessed associations with revictimization and health. Ages 14-17 were the most common age at first victimization for most violence types; almost half of male (46.7%) and a quarter of female (27.0%) rape victims reported first victimization before age 10. Most victimization was associated with revictimization and negative health, controlling for adult victimization. Primary prevention of childhood violence may reduce later health risks.

Firearm Homicides and Suicides in Major Metropolitan Areas - United States, 2015-2016 and 2018-2019.

Firearm homicides and suicides represent an ongoing public health concern in the United States. During 2018-2019, a total of 28,372 firearm homicides (including 3,612 [13%] among youths and young adults aged 10-19 years [youths]) and 48,372 firearm suicides (including 2,463 [5%] among youths) occurred among U.S. residents (1). This report is the fourth in a series* that provides statistics on firearm homicides and suicides in major metropolitan areas. As with earlier reports, this report provides a special focus on youth violence, including suicide, recognizing the magnitude of the problem and the importance of early prevention efforts. Firearm homicide and suicide rates were calculated for the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs)† for the periods 2015-2016 and 2018-2019, separated by a transition year (2017), using mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Following a period of decreased firearm homicide rates among persons of all ages after 2006-2007 in large metropolitan areas collectively and nationally, by 2015-2016 rates had returned to levels comparable to those observed a decade earlier and remained nearly unchanged as of 2018-2019. Firearm suicide rates among persons aged ≥10 years have continued to increase in large MSAs collectively as well as nationally. Although the youth firearm suicide rate remained much lower than the overall rate, the youth rate nationally also continued to increase, most notably outside of large MSAs. The findings in this report underscore a continued and urgent need for a comprehensive approach to prevention. This includes efforts to prevent firearm homicide and suicide in the first place and support individual persons and communities at increased risk, as well as lessening harms after firearm homicide and suicide have occurred.

Vital Signs: Changes in Firearm Homicide and Suicide Rates - United States, 2019-2020.

INTRODUCTION: The majority of homicides (79%) and suicides (53%) in the United States involved a firearm in 2020. High firearm homicide and suicide rates and corresponding inequities by race and ethnicity and poverty level represent important public health concerns. This study examined changes in firearm homicide and firearm suicide rates coinciding with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. METHODS: National vital statistics and population data were integrated with urbanization and poverty measures at the county level. Population-based firearm homicide and suicide rates were examined by age, sex, race and ethnicity, geographic area, level of urbanization, and level of poverty. RESULTS: From 2019 to 2020, the overall firearm homicide rate increased 34.6%, from 4.6 to 6.1 per 100,000 persons. The largest increases occurred among non-Hispanic Black or African American males aged 10-44 years and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) males aged 25-44 years. Rates of firearm homicide were lowest and increased least at the lowest poverty level and were higher and showed larger increases at higher poverty levels. The overall firearm suicide rate remained relatively unchanged from 2019 to 2020 (7.9 to 8.1); however, in some populations, including AI/AN males aged 10-44 years, rates did increase. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the firearm homicide rate in the United States reached its highest level since 1994, with substantial increases among several population subgroups. These increases have widened disparities in rates by race and ethnicity and poverty level. Several increases in firearm suicide rates were also observed. Implementation of comprehensive strategies employing proven approaches that address underlying economic, physical, and social conditions contributing to the risks for violence and suicide is urgently needed to reduce these rates and disparities.

Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Syndromic Surveillance Program Data to Monitor Trends in US Emergency Department Visits for Firearm Injuries, 2018 to 2019.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We describe trends in emergency department (ED) visits for initial firearm injury encounters in the United States. METHODS: Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Syndromic Surveillance Program, we analyzed monthly and yearly trends in ED visit rates involving a firearm injury (calculated as the number of firearm injury-related ED visits divided by the total number of ED visits for each month and multiplied by 100,000) by sex-specific age group and US region from 2018 to 2019 and conducted Joinpoint regression to detect trend significance. RESULTS: Among approximately 215 million ED visits captured in the National Syndromic Surveillance Program from January 2018 to December 2019, 132,767 involved a firearm injury (61.6 per 100,000 ED visits). Among males, rates of firearm injury-related ED visits significantly increased for all age groups between 15 and 64 years during the study period. Among females, rates of firearm injury-related ED visits significantly increased for all age groups between 15 and 54 years during the study period. By region, rates significantly changed in the northeast, southeast, and southwest for males and females during the study period. CONCLUSION: These analyses highlight a novel data source for monitoring trends in ED visits for firearm injuries. With increased and effective use of state and local syndromic surveillance data, in addition to improvements to firearm injury syndrome definitions by intent, public health professionals could better detect unusual patterns of firearm injuries across the United States for improved prevention and tailored response efforts.

Vital Signs: Estimated Proportion of Adult Health Problems Attributable to Adverse Childhood Experiences and Implications for Prevention - 25 States, 2015-2017.

INTRODUCTION: Adverse childhood experiences, such as violence victimization, substance misuse in the household, or witnessing intimate partner violence, have been linked to leading causes of adult morbidity and mortality. Therefore, reducing adverse childhood experiences is critical to avoiding multiple negative health and socioeconomic outcomes in adulthood. METHODS: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data were collected from 25 states that included state-added adverse childhood experience items during 2015-2017. Outcomes were self-reported status for coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cancer (excluding skin cancer), kidney disease, diabetes, depression, overweight or obesity, current smoking, heavy drinking, less than high school completion, unemployment, and lack of health insurance. Logistic regression modeling adjusting for age group, race/ethnicity, and sex was used to calculate population attributable fractions representing the potential reduction in outcomes associated with preventing adverse childhood experiences. RESULTS: Nearly one in six adults in the study population (15.6%) reported four or more types of adverse childhood experiences. Adverse childhood experiences were significantly associated with poorer health outcomes, health risk behaviors, and socioeconomic challenges. Potential percentage reductions in the number of observed cases as indicated by population attributable fractions ranged from 1.7% for overweight or obesity to 23.9% for heavy drinking, 27.0% for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 44.1% for depression. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE: Efforts that prevent adverse childhood experiences could also potentially prevent adult chronic conditions, depression, health risk behaviors, and negative socioeconomic outcomes. States can use comprehensive public health approaches derived from the best available evidence to prevent childhood adversity before it begins. By creating the conditions for healthy communities and focusing on primary prevention, it is possible to reduce risk for adverse childhood experiences while also mitigating consequences for those already affected by these experiences.

Firearm Homicides and Suicides in Major Metropolitan Areas - United States, 2012-2013 and 2015-2016.

Firearm homicides and suicides represent a continuing public health concern in the United States. During 2015-2016, a total of 27,394 firearm homicides (including 3,224 [12%] among persons aged 10-19 years) and 44,955 firearm suicides (including 2,118 [5%] among persons aged 10-19 years) occurred among U.S. residents (1). This report updates an earlier report (2) that provided statistics on firearm homicides and suicides in major metropolitan areas during 2006-2007 and 2009-2010, and places continued emphasis on youths, in recognition of the importance of early prevention efforts. Firearm homicide and suicide rates were determined for the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs)* during 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 using mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. In contrast to the earlier report, which indicated that firearm homicide rates among persons of all ages had been declining both nationally and in large MSAs overall, current findings show that rates have returned to levels comparable to those observed during 2006-2007. Consistent with the earlier report, these findings show that firearm suicide rates among persons aged ≥10 years have continued to increase, both nationally and in large MSAs overall. Although firearm suicide rates among youths remain notably lower than those among persons of all ages, youth rates have also increased both nationally and in large MSAs collectively. These findings can inform ongoing development and monitoring of strategies directed at reducing firearm-related violence.

The enduring impact of violence against children.

More than one billion children - half of all children in the world - are exposed to violence every year. The violence children are exposed to includes both direct experiences of physical, sexual, and emotional abuse, as well as indirectly witnessing violence in their homes, schools, and communities. What these various forms of violence share, based on a review of the literature, is their enduring potential for life-long consequences. These consequences include increases in the risks of injury, HIV, sexually transmitted infections, mental health problems, reproductive health problems, and non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic lung disease, and diabetes. Studies addressing biologic underpinnings of such consequences demonstrate that violence-associated toxic stress may cause damage to the nervous, endocrine, circulatory, musculo-skeletal, reproductive, respiratory, and immune systems. Furthermore, rigorous economic evaluations suggest that costs associated with the consequences of violence against children exceed $120 billion in the U.S. and account for up to 3.5% of the GDP in sub-regions of East Asia. The expanding literature confirming the mechanisms of consequences and the associated costs of violence against children has been accompanied by growing evidence on effective approaches to prevention. Moreover, the expanding evidence on prevention has been accompanied by a growing determination on the part of global leaders to accelerate action. Thus, as part of the Post-2015 Sustainable Development agenda, the UN has issued a call-to-action: to eliminate violence against children. This unprecedented UN call may foster new investments, to fuel new progress for protecting children around the world from violence and its preventable consequences.

Violence in the United States: Status, Challenges, and Opportunities.

IMPORTANCE: Interpersonal violence, which includes child abuse and neglect, youth violence, intimate partner violence, sexual violence, and elder abuse, affects millions of US residents each year. However, surveillance systems, programs, and policies to address violence often lack broad, cross-sector collaboration, and there is limited awareness of effective strategies to prevent violence. OBJECTIVES: To describe the burden of interpersonal violence in the United States, explore challenges to violence prevention efforts and to identify prevention opportunities. DATA SOURCES: We reviewed data from health and law enforcement surveillance systems including the National Vital Statistics System, the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reports, the US Justice Department's National Crime Victimization Survey, the National Survey of Children's Exposure to Violence, the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System, the National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey, the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, and the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Program. RESULTS: Homicide rates have decreased from a peak of 10.7 per 100,000 persons in 1980 to 5.1 per 100,000 in 2013. Aggravated assault rates have decreased from a peak of 442 per 100,000 in 1992 to 242 per 100,000 in 2012. Nevertheless, annually, there are more than 16,000 homicides and 1.6 million nonfatal assault injuries requiring treatment in emergency departments. More than 12 million adults experience intimate partner violence annually and more than 10 million children younger than 18 years experience some form of maltreatment from a caregiver, ranging from neglect to sexual abuse, but only a small percentage of these violent incidents are reported to law enforcement, health care clinicians, or child protective agencies. Moreover, exposure to violence increases vulnerability to a broad range of mental and physical health problems over the life course; for example, meta-analyses indicate that exposure to physical abuse in childhood is associated with a 54% increased odds of depressive disorder, a 78% increased odds of sexually transmitted illness or risky sexual behavior, and a 32% increased odds of obesity. Rates of violence vary by age, geographic location, sex, and race/ethnicity, and significant disparities exist. Homicide is the leading cause of death for non-Hispanic blacks from age 1 through 44 years, whereas it is the fifth most common cause of death among non-Hispanic whites in this age range. Additionally, efforts to understand, prevent, and respond to interpersonal violence have often neglected the degree to which many forms of violence are interconnected at the individual level, across relationships and communities, and even intergenerationally. The most effective violence prevention strategies include parent and family-focused programs, early childhood education, school-based programs, therapeutic or counseling interventions, and public policy. For example, a systematic review of early childhood home visitation programs found a 38.9% reduction in episodes of child maltreatment in intervention participants compared with control participants. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Progress has been made in reducing US rates of interpersonal violence even though a significant burden remains. Multiple strategies exist to improve violence prevention efforts, and health care providers are an important part of this solution.

CDC grand rounds: Creating a healthier future through prevention of child maltreatment.

Child maltreatment is abuse or neglect of a child by a parent or other caregiver that results in potential or actual harm or threats of harm to a child. Maltreatment encompasses both acts of commission (abuse) and omission (neglect). Child maltreatment is divided into four types: 1) physical abuse (e.g., hitting, kicking, shaking, or burning); 2) sexual abuse (e.g., rape or fondling); 3) psychological abuse (e.g., terrorizing or belittling); and 4) neglect, which involves the failure to meet a child's basic physical, emotional, or educational needs (e.g., not providing nutrition, shelter, or medical or mental health care) or the failure to supervise the child in a way that ensures safety (e.g., not taking reasonable steps to prevent injury). In 2012, a total of 1,593 children were reported to have died as a result of maltreatment in the United States. Also in 2012, state child protective service (CPS) agencies received an estimated 3.4 million reports of alleged maltreatment, involving an estimated 6.3 million children. Following the CPS investigation or other response, nearly 700,000 children were confirmed as having been maltreated. However, many cases are never reported to authorities; the actual scope of child maltreatment is greater. For example, data from a nationally representative survey in 2011 of children and adult caregivers (usually parents) suggest that 13.8% of children are maltreated each year and 25.6% experienced maltreatment at some point during childhood.

Global development and diffusion of outcome evaluation research for interpersonal and self-directed violence prevention from 2007 to 2013: A systematic review.

Through a global review, we identified gaps in the geographical distribution of violence prevention evidence outcome evaluation studies and the types of violence addressed. Systematic literature searches identified 355 articles published between 2007 and 2013 that evaluated programs to prevent interpersonal or self-directed violence; focused on universal or selected populations; and reported outcomes measuring violence or closely related risk factors. The number of studies identified increased annually from 2008 (n = 37), reaching 64 in 2013. Over half (n = 203) of all studies focused on youth violence yet only one on elder maltreatment. Study characteristics varied by year and violence type. Only 9.3% of all studies had been conducted in LMICs. These studies were less likely than those in high income countries (HICs) to have tested established interventions yet more likely to involve international collaboration. Evaluation studies successfully established in LMIC had often capitalized on other major regional priorities (e.g. HIV). Relationships between violence and social determinants, communicable and non-communicable diseases, and even economic prosperity should be explored as mechanisms to increase the global reach of violence prevention research. Results should inform future research strategies and provide a baseline for measuring progress in developing the violence prevention evidence-base, especially in LMICs.

Costs of Fatal and Nonfatal Firearm Injuries in the U.S., 2019 and 2020.

INTRODUCTION: Firearm-related injuries are among the five leading causes of death for people aged 1-44 years in the U.S. The immediate and long-term harms of firearm injuries pose an economic burden on society. Fatal and nonfatal firearm injury costs in the U.S. were estimated providing up-to-date economic burden estimates. METHODS: Counts of nonfatal firearm injuries were obtained from the 2019-2020 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Emergency Department Sample. Data on nonfatal injury intent were obtained from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System - Firearm Injury Surveillance System. Counts of deaths (firearm as underlying cause) were obtained from the 2019-2020 multiple cause-of-death mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System. Analyses were conducted in 2023. RESULTS: The total cost of firearm related injuries and deaths in the U.S. for 2020 was $493.2 billion, a 16 percent increase compared with 2019. There are significant disparities in the cost of firearm deaths in 2019-2020, with non-Hispanic Black people, males, and young and middle-aged groups being the most affected. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the nonfatal firearm injury-related costs are attributed to hospitalization. These findings highlight the racial/ethnic differences in fatal firearm injuries and the disproportionate cost burden to urban areas. Addressing this important public health problem can help ameliorate the costs to our society from the rising rates of firearm injuries.

Economic Burden of Health Conditions Associated With Adverse Childhood Experiences Among US Adults.

Importance: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are preventable, potentially traumatic events in childhood, such as experiencing abuse or neglect, witnessing violence, or living in a household with substance use disorder, mental health problems, or instability from parental separation or incarceration. Adults who had ACEs have more harmful risk behaviors and worse health outcomes; the economic burden associated with these issues is uncertain. Objective: To estimate the economic burden of ACE-associated health conditions among US adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this economic evaluation, regression models of cross-sectional survey data from the 2019-2020 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and previous studies were used to estimate ACE population-attributable fractions (PAFs) (ie, the fraction of total cases associated with a specific exposure) for selected health outcomes (anxiety, arthritis, asthma, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depression, diabetes, heart disease, kidney disease, stroke, and violence) and risk factors (heavy drinking, illicit drug use, overweight and obesity, and smoking) among the 2019 US adult population. Adverse childhood experience PAFs were used to calculate the proportion of total condition-specific medical spending and lost healthy life-years related to ACEs using Global Burden of Disease Study data. Data analysis was performed from September 10, 2021, to November 29, 2022. Exposure: Adverse childhood experiences (age <18 years). Main Outcomes and Measures: Monetary valuation of ACE-associated morbidity and mortality using standard US value of statistical life methods and presented in terms of annual and lifetime per affected person and total population estimates at the national and state levels. Results: A total of 820 673 adults, representing 255 million individuals, participated in the BRFSS in 2019 and 2020. An estimated 160 million of the total 255 million US adult population (63%) had 1 or more ACE, associated with an annual economic burden of $14.1 trillion ($183 billion in direct medical spending and $13.9 trillion in lost healthy life-years). This was $88 000 per affected adult annually and $2.4 million over their lifetimes. The lifetime economic burden per affected adult was lowest in North Dakota ($1.3 million) and highest in Arkansas ($4.3 million). Twenty-two percent of adults had 4 or more ACEs and comprised 58% of the total economic burden-the estimated per person lifetime economic burden for those adults was $4.0 million. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional analysis of the US adult population, the economic burden of ACE-related health conditions was substantial. The findings suggest that measuring the economic burden of ACEs can support decision-making about investing in strategies to improve population health.

Development of a Machine Learning Model to Estimate US Firearm Homicides in Near Real Time.

Importance: Firearm homicides are a major public health concern; lack of timely mortality data presents considerable challenges to effective response. Near real-time data sources offer potential for more timely estimation of firearm homicides. Objective: To estimate near real-time burden of weekly and annual firearm homicides in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prognostic study, anonymous, longitudinal time series data were obtained from multiple data sources, including Google and YouTube search trends related to firearms (2014-2019), emergency department visits for firearm injuries (National Syndromic Surveillance Program, 2014-2019), emergency medical service activations for firearm-related injuries (biospatial, 2014-2019), and National Domestic Violence Hotline contacts flagged with the keyword firearm (2016-2019). Data analysis was performed from September 2021 to September 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Weekly estimates of US firearm homicides were calculated using a 2-phase pipeline, first fitting optimal machine learning models for each data stream and then combining the best individual models into a stacked ensemble model. Model accuracy was assessed by comparing predictions of firearm homicides in 2019 to actual firearm homicides identified by National Vital Statistics System death certificates. Results were also compared with a SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) model, a common method to forecast injury mortality. Results: Both individual and ensemble models yielded highly accurate estimates of firearm homicides. Individual models' mean error for weekly estimates of firearm homicides (root mean square error) varied from 24.95 for emergency department visits to 31.29 for SARIMA forecasting. Ensemble models combining data sources had lower weekly mean error and higher annual accuracy than individual data sources: the all-source ensemble model had a weekly root mean square error of 24.46 deaths and full-year accuracy of 99.74%, predicting the total number of firearm homicides in 2019 within 38 deaths for the entire year (compared with 95.48% accuracy and 652 deaths for the SARIMA model). The model decreased the time lag of reporting weekly firearm homicides from 7 to 8 months to approximately 6 weeks. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study of diverse secondary data on machine learning, ensemble modeling produced accurate near real-time estimates of weekly and annual firearm homicides and substantially decreased data source time lags. Ensemble model forecasts can accelerate public health practitioners' and policy makers' ability to respond to unanticipated shifts in firearm homicides.

Characteristics of fatal abusive head trauma among children in the USA: 2003-2007: an application of the CDC operational case definition to national vital statistics data.

OBJECTIVE: In March of 2008, an expert panel was convened at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to develop code-based case definitions for abusive head trauma (AHT) in children under 5 years of age based on the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) nature and cause of injury codes. This study presents the operational case definition and applies it to US death data. METHODS: National Center for Health Statistics National Vital Statistics System data on multiple cause-of-death from 2003 to 2007 were examined. RESULTS: Inspection of records with at least one ICD-10 injury/disease code and at least one ICD-10 cause code from the AHT case definition resulted in the identification of 780 fatal AHT cases, with 699 classified as definite/presumptive AHT and 81 classified as probable AHT. The fatal AHT rate was highest among children age <1 year with a peak in incidence that occurred at 1-2 months of age. Fatal AHT incidence rates were higher for men than women and were higher for non-Hispanic African-Americans compared to other racial/ethnic groups. Fatal AHT incidence was relatively constant across seasons. CONCLUSIONS: This report demonstrates that the definition can help to identify population subgroups at higher risk for AHT defined by year and month of death, age, sex and race/ethnicity. This type of definition may be useful for various epidemiological applications including research and surveillance. These activities can in turn inform further development of prevention activities, including educating parents about the dangers of shaking and strategies for managing infant crying.

Changes in prevalence of violence and risk factors for violence and HIV among children and young people in Kenya: a comparison of the 2010 and 2019 Kenya Violence Against Children and Youth Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Previous research has shown a high prevalence of violence among young people in Kenya. Violence is a known risk factor for HIV acquisition and these two public health issues could be viewed as a syndemic. In 2010, Kenya became the third country to implement the Violence Against Children and Youth Survey (VACS). The study found a high prevalence of violence in the country. Led by the Government of Kenya, stakeholders implemented several prevention and response strategies to reduce violence. In 2019, Kenya implemented a second VACS. This study examines the changes in violence and risk factors for violence and HIV between 2010 and 2019. METHODS: The 2010 and 2019 VACS used a similar sampling approach and measures. Both VACS were cross-sectional national household surveys of young people aged 13-24 years, designed to produce national estimates of physical, sexual, and emotional violence. Prevalence and changes in lifetime experiences of violence and risk factors for violence and HIV were estimated. The VACS uses a three-stage cluster sampling approach with random selection of enumeration areas as the first stage, households as the second stage, and an eligible participant from the selected household as the third stage. The VACS questionnaire contains sections on demographics, risk and protective factors, violence victimisation, violence perpetration, sexual behaviour, HIV testing and services, violence service knowledge and uptake, and health outcomes. For this study, the main outcome variables were violence victimisation, context of violence, and risk factors for violence. All analyses were done with the entire sample of 13-24-year-olds stratified by sex and survey year. FINDINGS: The prevalence of lifetime sexual, physical, and emotional violence significantly declined in 2019 compared with 2010, including unwanted sexual touching, for both females and males. Experience of pressured and forced sex among females also decreased between the surveys. Additionally, significantly more females sought and received services for sexual violence and significantly more males knew of a place to seek help in 2019 than in 2010. The prevalence of several risk factors for violence and HIV also declined, including infrequent condom use, endorsement of inequitable gender norms, endorsement of norms justifying wife beating, and never testing for HIV. INTERPRETATION: Kenya observed significant declines in the prevalence of lifetime violence and some risk factors for violence and HIV, and improvements in some service seeking indicators between 2010 and 2019. Continued prioritisation of preventing and responding to violence in Kenya could contribute to further reductions in violence and its negative outcomes. Other countries in the region that have made substantial investments and implemented similar violence prevention programmes could use repeat VACS data to monitor violence and related outcomes over time. FUNDING: None.

Risk factors associated with sexual violence towards girls in Swaziland.

OBJECTIVE: To explore risk factors for sexual violence in childhood in a nationally representative sample of females aged 13 to 24 years in Swaziland. METHODS: During a household survey respondents were asked to report any experiences of sexual violence before the age of 18 years. The association between childhood sexual violence and several potential demographic and social risk factors was explored through bivariate and multivariate logistic regression. FINDINGS: Participants totalled 1244. Compared with respondents who had been close to their biological mothers as children, those who had not been close to her had higher odds of having experienced sexual violence (crude odds ratio, COR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.14-3.14), as did those who had had no relationship with her at all (COR: 1.93; 95% CI: 1.34-2.80). In addition, greater odds of childhood sexual violence were noted among respondents who were not attending school at the time of the survey (COR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.70-3.01); who were emotionally abused as children (COR: 2.04; 95% CI: 1.50-2.79); and who knew of another child who had been sexually assaulted (COR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.31-2.40) or was having sex with a teacher (COR: 2.07; 95% CI: 1.59-2.69). Childhood sexual violence was positively associated with the number of people the respondent had lived with at any one time (COR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06). CONCLUSION: Inadequate supervision or guidance and an unstable environment put girls at risk of sexual violence. Greater educational opportunities and an improved mother-daughter relationship could help prevent it.