Harmonising dietary datasets for global surveillance: methods and findings from the Global Dietary Database.

OBJECTIVE: The Global Dietary Database (GDD) expanded its previous methods to harmonise and publicly disseminate individual-level dietary data from nutrition surveys worldwide. DESIGN: Analysis of cross-sectional data. SETTING: Global. PARTICIPANTS: General population. METHODS: Comprehensive methods to streamline the harmonisation of primary, individual-level 24-h recall and food record data worldwide were developed. To standardise the varying food descriptions, FoodEx2 was used, a highly detailed food classification and description system developed and adapted for international use by European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Standardised processes were developed to: identify eligible surveys; contact data owners; screen surveys for inclusion; harmonise data structure, variable definition and unit and food characterisation; perform data checks and publicly disseminate the harmonised datasets. The GDD joined forces with FAO and EFSA, given the shared goal of harmonising individual-level dietary data worldwide. RESULTS: Of 1500 dietary surveys identified, 600 met the eligibility criteria, and 156 were prioritised and contacted; fifty-five surveys were included for harmonisation and, ultimately, fifty two were harmonised. The included surveys were primarily nationally representative (59 %); included high- (39 %), upper-middle (21 %), lower-middle (27 %) and low- (13 %) income countries; usually collected multiple recalls/ records (64 %) and largely captured both sexes, all ages and both rural and urban areas. Surveys from low- and lower-middle v. high- and upper-middle income countries reported fewer nutrients (median 17 v. 30) and rarely included nutrients relevant to diet-related chronic diseases, such as n-3 fatty acids and Na. CONCLUSIONS: Diverse 24-h recalls/records can be harmonised to provide highly granular, standardised data, supporting nutrition programming, research and capacity development worldwide.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Achieving the National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative Voluntary Sugar Reduction Targets in the United States: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: High intake of added sugar is linked to weight gain and cardiometabolic risk. In 2018, the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative proposed government-supported voluntary national sugar reduction targets. This intervention's potential effects and cost-effectiveness are unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), coded in C++, was used to estimate incremental changes in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative policy. The model was run at the individual level, incorporating the annual probability of each person's transition between health statuses on the basis of risk factors. The model incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey across 3 cycles (2011 through 2016), added sugar-related diseases from meta-analyses, and policy costs and health-related costs from established sources. A simulated nationally representative US population was created and followed until age 100 years or death, with 2019 as the year of intervention start. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and a lifetime from health care and societal perspectives. Uncertainty was evaluated in a 1-way analysis by assuming 50% industry compliance and probabilistic sensitivity analyses through a second-order Monte Carlo approach. Model outputs included averted diabetes cases, CVD events and CVD deaths, QALYs gained, and formal health care cost savings, stratified by age, race, income, and education. RESULTS: Achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reduction targets could prevent 2.48 million CVD events, 0.49 million CVD deaths, and 0.75 million diabetes cases; gain 6.67 million QALYs; and save $160.88 billion net costs from a societal perspective over a lifetime. The policy became cost-effective (<150 000/QALYs) at 6 years, highly cost-effective (<50 000/QALYs) at 7 years, and cost-saving at 9 years. Results were robust from a health care perspective, with lower (50%) industry compliance, and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The policy could also reduce disparities, with greatest estimated health gains per million adults among Black or Hispanic individuals, lower income, and less educated Americans. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing and achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reformation targets could generate substantial health gains, equity gains, and cost savings.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Volume, Tiered, and Absolute Sugar Content Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policies in the United States: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes are a rapidly growing policy tool and can be based on absolute volume, sugar content tiers, or absolute sugar content. Yet, their comparative health and economic impacts have not been quantified, in particular, tiered or sugar content taxes that provide industry incentives for sugar reduction. METHODS: We estimated incremental changes in diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, quality-adjusted life-years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of 3 sugar-sweetened beverage tax designs in the United States, on the basis of (1) volume ($0.01/oz), (2) tiers (<5 g of added sugar/8 oz: no tax; 5-20 g/8 oz: $0.01/oz; and >20 g/8 oz: $0.02/oz), and (3) absolute sugar content ($0.01 per teaspoon added sugar), each compared with a base case of modest ongoing voluntary industry reformulation. A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, policy effects and sugar-sweetened beverage-related diseases from meta-analyses, and industry reformulation and health-related costs from established sources. RESULTS: Over a lifetime, the volume, tiered, and absolute sugar content taxes would generate $80.4 billion, $142 billion, and $41.7 billion in tax revenue, respectively. From a healthcare perspective, the volume tax would prevent 850 000 cardiovascular disease (95% CI, 836 000-864 000) and 269 000 diabetes mellitus (265 000-274 000) cases, gain 2.44 million quality-adjusted life-years (2.40-2.48), and save $53.2 billion net costs (52.3-54.1). Health gains and savings were approximately doubled for the tiered and absolute sugar content taxes. Results were robust for societal and government perspectives, at 10 years follow-up, and with lower (50%) tax pass-through. Health gains were largest in young adults, blacks and Hispanics, and lower-income Americans. CONCLUSIONS: All sugar-sweetened beverage tax designs would generate substantial health gains and savings. Tiered and absolute sugar content taxes should be considered and evaluated for maximal potential gains.

Protocol for a randomized controlled trial to test the acceptability and adherence to 6-months of walnut supplementation in Chinese adults at high risk of cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Consumption of nuts improves cardio-metabolic risk factors in clinical trials and relates to lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in prospective observational studies. However, there has not been an adequately powered randomized controlled trial to test if nuts supplementation actually reduces incident CVD. In order to establish the feasibility of such a trial, the current study aimed to assess the acceptability and adherence to long-term nut supplementation amongst individuals at high CVD risk in China. METHODS: This protocol described a 6-month trial performed in Ningxia Province in China among participants with a history of CVD or older age (female ≥65 years, male ≥60 years) with multiple CVD risk factors. Participants were randomized to control (received non-edible gift), low dose walnut (30 g/d), or high dose walnut (60 g/d) groups in a 1:1:1 ratio. Walnuts were provided at no cost to participants and could be consumed according to personal preferences. Follow-up visits were scheduled at 2 weeks, 3 months and 6 months. The primary outcome was fasting plasma alpha linolenic acid (ALA) levels used as an indicator of walnut consumption. Secondary outcomes included self-reported walnut intake from the 24 h dietary recalls. The target sample size of 210 provided 90% statistical power with two-sided alpha of 0.05 to detect a mean difference of 0.12% (as percent of total fatty acid) in plasma ALA between randomized groups. RESULTS: Two hundred and ten participants were recruited and randomized during October 2019. Mean age of participants was 65 years (SD = 7.3), 47% were females, and 94% had a history of CVD at baseline. Across the three study groups, participants had similar baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. DISCUSSION: This trial will quantify acceptability and adherence to long-term walnut supplementation in a Chinese population at high risk of CVD. The findings will support the design of a future large trial to test the effect of walnut supplementation for CVD prevention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04037943 Protocol version: v3.0 August 14 2019.

Micronutrient dietary intakes and their food sources in adults: the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS).

BACKGROUND: The present study aimed to assess micronutrient intake among Greek adults and to identify the main food sources that contribute to it. METHODS: Food consumption data from 2389 participants in the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS), collected with 24-h recalls, was used to calculate micronutrient intakes. Usual nutrient intake was estimated according to the National Cancer Institute method. Nutrient adequacy was estimated using the estimated average requirement (EAR) cut-point method, when available, or adequate intake otherwise. The probability approach was used to determine iron intake adequacy in females of reproductive age. Food group contribution for each nutrient assessed was derived to identify their main food sources. RESULTS: Almost all individuals had vitamin D intake below EAR, whereas vitamins A, E, K and C, as well as potassium intake, were also insufficient in a considerable percentage of the population (>70% in most age groups). Calcium intake was substantially below the EAR for females aged >50 years and males >70 years; the same for magnesium in males >70 years. Furthermore, 50% of females, including those of reproductive age, had intake of folate below EAR. More than 50% of the population (to 79%) exceeded the upper tolerable limit for sodium (2300 mg day-1 ). Food contribution analysis revealed that most vitamins were derived from low-quality foods (i.e. fast-food). CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of adults residing in Greece have low nutrient intake and poor food selections. These results provide guidance to public health policy makers for developing strategies to improve the dietary quality in Greece.

Cost-Effectiveness of the US Food and Drug Administration Added Sugar Labeling Policy for Improving Diet and Health.

BACKGROUND: Excess added sugars, particularly from sugar-sweetened beverages, are a major risk factor for cardiometabolic diseases including cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In 2016, the US Food and Drug Administration mandated the labeling of added sugar content on all packaged foods and beverages. Yet, the potential health impacts and cost-effectiveness of this policy remain unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model (US IMPACT Food Policy model) was used to estimate cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus cases averted, quality-adjusted life-years, policy costs, health care, informal care, and lost productivity (health-related) savings and cost-effectiveness of 2 policy scenarios: (1) implementation of the US Food and Drug Administration added sugar labeling policy (sugar label), and (2) further accounting for corresponding industry reformulation (sugar label+reformulation). The model used nationally representative demographic and dietary intake data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, disease data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wonder Database, policy effects and diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis accounted for model parameter uncertainties and population heterogeneity. RESULTS: Between 2018 and 2037, the sugar label would prevent 354 400 cardiovascular disease (95% uncertainty interval, 167 000-673 500) and 599 300 (302 400-957 400) diabetes mellitus cases, gain 727 000 (401 300-1 138 000) quality-adjusted life-years, and save $31 billion (15.7-54.5) in net healthcare costs or $61.9 billion (33.1-103.3) societal costs (incorporating reduced lost productivity and informal care costs). For the sugar label+reformulation scenario, corresponding gains were 708 800 (369 200-1 252 000) cardiovascular disease cases, 1.2 million (0.7-1.7) diabetes mellitus cases, 1.3 million (0.8-1.9) quality-adjusted life-years, and $57.6 billion (31.9-92.4) and $113.2 billion (67.3-175.2), respectively. Both scenarios were estimated with >80% probability to be cost saving by 2023. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing the US Food and Drug Administration added sugar labeling policy could generate substantial health gains and cost savings for the US population.

Fatty acids in the de novo lipogenesis pathway and incidence of type 2 diabetes: A pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: De novo lipogenesis (DNL) is the primary metabolic pathway synthesizing fatty acids from carbohydrates, protein, or alcohol. Our aim was to examine associations of in vivo levels of selected fatty acids (16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, 18:1n9) in DNL with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Seventeen cohorts from 12 countries (7 from Europe, 7 from the United States, 1 from Australia, 1 from Taiwan; baseline years = 1970-1973 to 2006-2010) conducted harmonized individual-level analyses of associations of DNL-related fatty acids with incident T2D. In total, we evaluated 65,225 participants (mean ages = 52.3-75.5 years; % women = 20.4%-62.3% in 12 cohorts recruiting both sexes) and 15,383 incident cases of T2D over the 9-year follow-up on average. Cohort-specific association of each of 16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, and 18:1n9 with incident T2D was estimated, adjusted for demographic factors, socioeconomic characteristics, alcohol, smoking, physical activity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, menopausal status, and adiposity. Cohort-specific associations were meta-analyzed with an inverse-variance-weighted approach. Each of the 4 fatty acids positively related to incident T2D. Relative risks (RRs) per cohort-specific range between midpoints of the top and bottom quintiles of fatty acid concentrations were 1.53 (1.41-1.66; p < 0.001) for 16:0, 1.40 (1.33-1.48; p < 0.001) for 16:1n-7, 1.14 (1.05-1.22; p = 0.001) for 18:0, and 1.16 (1.07-1.25; p < 0.001) for 18:1n9. Heterogeneity was seen across cohorts (I2 = 51.1%-73.1% for each fatty acid) but not explained by lipid fractions and global geographical regions. Further adjusted for triglycerides (and 16:0 when appropriate) to evaluate associations independent of overall DNL, the associations remained significant for 16:0, 16:1n7, and 18:0 but were attenuated for 18:1n9 (RR = 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.94-1.13). These findings had limitations in potential reverse causation and residual confounding by imprecisely measured or unmeasured factors. CONCLUSIONS: Concentrations of fatty acids in the DNL were positively associated with T2D incidence. Our findings support further work to investigate a possible role of DNL and individual fatty acids in the development of T2D.

Quality of Meals Consumed by US Adults at Full-Service and Fast-Food Restaurants, 2003-2016: Persistent Low Quality and Widening Disparities.

BACKGROUND: Meals from full-service restaurants (FS) and fast-food restaurants (FF) are an integral part of US diets, but current levels and trends in consumption, healthfulness, and related sociodemographic disparities are not well characterized. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess patterns and nutritional quality (using validated American Heart Association [AHA] diet scores) of FS and FF meals consumed by US adults. METHODS: Serial cross-sectional investigation utilizing 24-h dietary recalls in survey-weighted, nationally representative samples of 35,015 adults aged ≥20 y from 7 NHANES cycles, 2003-2016. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2016, American adults consumed ∼21 percent of energyfrom restaurants (FS: 8.5% in 2003-2004, 9.5% in 2015-2016, P-trend = 0.38; FF: 10.5%; 13.4%, P-trend = 0.31). Over this period, more FF meals were eaten for breakfast (from 4.4% to 7.6% of all breakfasts, P-trend <0.001), with no changes for lunch (15.2% to 15.3%) or dinner (14.6% to 14.4%). In 2015-2016, diet quality of both FS and FF were low, with mean AHA diet scores of 31.6 and 27.6 (out of 80). Between 2003 and 2016, diet quality of FF meals improved slightly, (the percentage with poor quality went from 74.6% to 69.8%; and with intermediate quality, from 25.4% to 30.2%; P-trend <0.001 each). Proportions of FS meals of poor (∼50%) and intermediate (∼50%) quality were stable over time, with <0.1% of consumed FS or FF meals meeting ideal quality. Disparities in FS meal quality persisted by race/ethnicity, obesity status, and education and worsened by income; whereas disparities in FF meal quality persisted by age, sex, and obesity status and worsened by race/ethnicity, education, and income. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2003 and 2016, FF and FS meals provided 1 in 5 calories for US adults. Modest improvements occurred in nutritional quality of FF, but not FS, meals consumed, and the average quality for both remained low with persistent or widening disparities. These findings highlight the need for strategies to improve the nutritional quality of US restaurant meals.

Nutrient Profiling Systems, Front of Pack Labeling, and Consumer Behavior.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Guiding consumers toward more healthful food choices may help address the high prevalence of poor dietary quality and diet-related diseases. The use of front-of-package labels (FOPL) on food items is expanding to provide focused nutritional information or representations, often based upon nutrient profiling systems. RECENT FINDINGS: FOPL provide a source of nutrition and health information that is readily understood by consumers, including those with limited literacy. There is evidence that FOPL can shift consumer behavior toward more nutritious and healthful choices. However, assessments of the effectiveness of FOPL have been restricted in scope and rely largely on simulation models rather than real-world environments. FOPL are a direct source of nutritional guidance at the point-of-purchase and provide an opportunity to convey critical information on ingredients that are associated with health promotion and/or increased risk of non-communicable diseases. However, limited evidence regarding the most effective forms of FOPL to achieve behavior change and challenges from the food industry impedes the establishment of standardized nutrient profiles and algorithms. Future opportunities for FOPL include the potential for integrating nutritional profiles with non-nutrient factors affecting health such as food processing and environmental sustainability.

Legal Feasibility and Implementation of Federal Strategies for a National Retail-Based Fruit and Vegetable Subsidy Program in the United States.

Policy Points Suboptimal intake of fruit and vegetables is associated with increased risk of diet-related diseases. A national retail-based fruit and vegetable subsidy program could broadly benefit the health of the entire population. Existing fruit and vegetable subsidy programs can inform potential implementation mechanisms; Congress's powers to tax, spend, and regulate interstate commerce can be leveraged to create a federal program. Legal and administrative feasibility considerations support a conditional funding program or a federal-state cooperative program combining regulation, licensing, and state or local options for flexible implementation strategies. Strategies to engage key stakeholders would enable the program to utilize lessons learned from existing programs. CONTEXT: Suboptimal intake of fruit and vegetables (F&Vs) is associated with increased risk of diet-related diseases. Yet, there are no US government programs to support increased F&V consumption nationally for the whole population, most of whom purchase food at retail establishments. To inform policy discussion and implementation, we identified mechanisms to effectuate a national retail-based F&V subsidy program. METHODS: We conducted legal and policy research using LexisNexis, the UConn Rudd Center Legislation Database, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Chronic Disease State Policy Tracking System, the US Department of Agriculture's website, Congress.gov, gray literature, and government reports. First, we identified existing federal, state, local, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) policies and programs that subsidize F&Vs. Second, we evaluated Congress's power to implement a national retail-based F&V subsidy program. FINDINGS: We found five federal programs, three federal bills, four state laws, and 17 state (including the District of Columbia [DC]) bills to appropriate money to supplement federal food assistance programs with F&Vs; 74 programs (six multistate, 22 state [including DC], and 46 local) administered by state and local governments and NGOs that incentivize the purchase of F&Vs for various subpopulations; and two state laws and 11 state bills to provide tax exemptions for F&Vs. To create a national F&V subsidy program, Congress could use its Commerce Clause powers or its powers to tax or spend, through direct regulation, licensing, taxation, tax incentives, and conditional funding. Legal and administrative feasibility considerations support a voluntary conditional funding program or, as a second option, a mandatory federal-state cooperative program combining regulation and licensing. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple existing programs provide an important foundation to inform potential implementation mechanisms for a national F&V subsidy program. Results also highlight the value of state and local participation to leverage existing networks and stakeholder knowledge.

Application of the ≤ 10:1 carbohydrate to fiber ratio to identify healthy grain foods and its association with cardiometabolic risk factors.

PURPOSE: Optimal metrics to assess healthfulness of carbohydrate-rich products are not well established. We investigated how the content per 10 g of carbohydrate of at least 1 g of fiber (≤ 10:1-ratio) related to nutritional quality in grain foods as well as cardiometabolic risk factors in São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Data were from the cross-sectional population-based study 2015 Health Survey of São Paulo, including a probabilistic sample of urban residents in the city. Participants (n = 1188) aged 20 + years completed a 24-h dietary recall and a subsample of 603 participants had blood samples, anthropometrics, and blood pressure measurements collected, and answered a second 24-h recall. Energy and nutrient contents of grain foods meeting or not meeting the ≤ 10:1-ratio were evaluated using linear regression models. The association between consumption (percent energy, %E) of grain foods meeting the ≤ 10:1-ratio and cardiometabolic risk factors were investigated using linear regression models. RESULTS: Foods meeting the ≤ 10:1-ratio had less available carbohydrate (- 3.0 g/serving), total sugar (- 7.4 g/serving), added sugar (- 7.2 g/serving) and saturated fat (- 0.7 g/serving), and more dietary fiber (+ 3.5 g/serving), protein (+ 2.1 g/serving), potassium (+ 100.1 mg/serving), iron (+ 0.9 mg/serving), selenium (+ 4.2 µg/serving), magnesium (+ 38.7 mg/serving), and zinc (+ 1.1 mg/serving). Each increase in 1%E consumption of grain foods meeting the ≤ 10:1-ratio was associated with lower levels of blood triacylglycerol (- 10.7%), the triacylglycerol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (- 14.9%), fasting insulin (- 13.6%), and homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (- 14.0%). CONCLUSION: The ≤ 10:1-ratio identified grain foods with higher nutritional quality and higher intakes of these foods were associated with cardiometabolic risk factors related to atherogenic dyslipidemia and insulin resistance.

Dietary patterns and cardiovascular disease in Greek adults: The Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Empirically-derived dietary patterns have been shown to have both positive and adverse associations with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Yet, such associations remain unclear in the Greek population. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between empirically-derived dietary patterns and the presence of CVD and CVD-related medical conditions in a nationally representative sample of Greek adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Adult participants (≥20 years old) of the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS) were included (N = 3552; 41.2% men; 43.7 years, SD: 18.1). Dietary patterns were derived by principal component analysis using 24-h recall data. The presence of dyslipidemia (elevated cholesterol and/or triglycerides), hypertension, coronary heart disease, and total CVD, was defined according to the International Clinical Diagnosis (ICD)-10 codes. Odds ratios of CVD outcomes were estimated across dietary patterns using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Three dietary patterns -Traditional (proxy Mediterranean), Western, and Prudent-were identified explaining 16.5% of the total variance in consumption. Logistic regression analysis, adjusted for age, sex, total caloric intake, sociodemographic characteristics, and other CVD risk factors, showed an inverse association between the Traditional dietary pattern and CVD presence (OR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.30-0.95), and a positive association between the Western pattern and dyslipidemia (1.52; 1.02-2.26). No association was found between the Prudent pattern and CVD outcomes. CONCLUSION: The variability of food intake combinations in the Greek population seem to be associated with the presence of CVD and CVD related conditions. Such findings are imperative for national monitoring and informed priority setting.

Micronutrient intakes and their food sources among Greek children and adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the usual dietary intake of twenty micronutrients and to identify their food sources in a representative sample of Greek children and adolescents. DESIGN: Cross-sectional data from the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS). Vitamin and mineral intakes were estimated from two 24 h dietary recalls by sex and age groups. Estimates were calculated using the National Research Council method and the statistical software package Stata13 to account for within- and between-person variations. The prevalence of nutrients' inadequacy among sample was estimated using the estimated average requirement (EAR) cut-point method. The contribution of food groups to nutrient intake was estimated to identify micronutrients food sources. SETTING: Greece. PARTICIPANTS: Children and adolescents aged 1-19 years (n 577) who provided sufficient and plausible 24-h recalls. RESULTS: A substantial percentage of children and adolescents had insufficient intakes of numerous micronutrients. Usual intake of vitamins D, K and potassium was inadequate in practically all individuals. Vitamin A, folate, Ca and Mg were also insufficient to a considerable percentage, especially in girls aged 14-18 years. Pantothenic acid was highlighted as nutrient of interest since only one out of ten boys 9-13 years and girls 14-19 years had intake above the EAR. Data demonstrated that food groups highly ranked in energy contribution were not necessarily important sources of micronutrients. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that micronutrient density of Greek children and adolescents' diet should be improved. These findings might be used by public health policy-makers to help young people optimise their food choices in Greece.

Cardiometabolic disease costs associated with suboptimal diet in the United States: A cost analysis based on a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: Poor diet is a leading risk factor for cardiometabolic disease (CMD) in the United States, but its economic costs are unknown. We sought to estimate the cost associated with suboptimal diet in the US. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A validated microsimulation model (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends [CVD PREDICT]) was used to estimate annual cardiovascular disease (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, angina, and stroke) and type 2 diabetes costs associated with suboptimal intake of 10 food groups (fruits, vegetables, nuts/seeds, whole grains, unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, polyunsaturated fats, seafood omega-3 fats, sodium). A representative US population sample of individuals aged 35-85 years was created using weighted sampling from National Health And Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 2009-2012 cycles. Estimates were stratified by cost type (acute, chronic, drug), sex, age, race, education, BMI, and health insurance. Annual diet-related CMD costs were $301/person (95% CI $287-$316). This translates to $50.4 billion in CMD costs (18.2% of total) for the whole population, of which 84.3% are attributed to acute care ($42.6 billion). The largest annual per capita costs are attributed to low consumption of nuts/seeds ($81; 95% CI $74-$86) and seafood omega-3 fats ($76; 95% CI $70-$83), and the lowest are attributed to high consumption of red meat ($3; 95% CI $2.8-$3.5) and polyunsaturated fats ($20; 95% CI $19-$22). Individual costs are highest for men ($380), those aged ≥65 years ($408), blacks ($320), the less educated ($392), and those with Medicare ($481) or dual-eligible ($536) insurance coverage. A limitation of our study is that dietary intake data were assessed from 24-hour dietary recall, which may not fully capture a diet over a person's life span and is subject to measurement errors. CONCLUSIONS: Suboptimal diet of 10 dietary factors accounts for 18.2% of all ischemic heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes costs in the US, highlighting that timely implementation of diet policies could address these health and economic burdens.

Cost-effectiveness of financial incentives for improving diet and health through Medicare and Medicaid: A microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: Economic incentives through health insurance may promote healthier behaviors. Little is known about health and economic impacts of incentivizing diet, a leading risk factor for diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD), through Medicare and Medicaid. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT) estimated CVD and diabetes cases prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), health-related costs (formal healthcare, informal healthcare, and lost-productivity costs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of two policy scenarios for adults within Medicare and Medicaid, compared to a base case of no new intervention: (1) 30% subsidy on fruits and vegetables ("F&V incentive") and (2) 30% subsidy on broader healthful foods including F&V, whole grains, nuts/seeds, seafood, and plant oils ("healthy food incentive"). Inputs included national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2014, policy effects and diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Overall, 82 million adults (35-80 years old) were on Medicare and/or Medicaid. The mean (SD) age was 68.1 (11.4) years, 56.2% were female, and 25.5% were non-whites. Health and cost impacts were simulated over the lifetime of current Medicare and Medicaid participants (average simulated years = 18.3 years). The F&V incentive was estimated to prevent 1.93 million CVD events, gain 4.64 million QALYs, and save $39.7 billion in formal healthcare costs. For the healthy food incentive, corresponding gains were 3.28 million CVD and 0.12 million diabetes cases prevented, 8.40 million QALYs gained, and $100.2 billion in formal healthcare costs saved, respectively. From a healthcare perspective, both scenarios were cost-effective at 5 years and beyond, with lifetime ICERs of $18,184/QALY (F&V incentive) and $13,194/QALY (healthy food incentive). From a societal perspective including informal healthcare costs and lost productivity, respective ICERs were $14,576/QALY and $9,497/QALY. Results were robust in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and a range of one-way sensitivity and subgroup analyses, including by different durations of the intervention (5, 10, and 20 years and lifetime), food subsidy levels (20%, 50%), insurance groups (Medicare, Medicaid, and dual-eligible), and beneficiary characteristics within each insurance group (age, race/ethnicity, education, income, and Supplemental Nutrition Assistant Program [SNAP] status). Simulation studies such as this one provide quantitative estimates of benefits and uncertainty but cannot directly prove health and economic impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Economic incentives for healthier foods through Medicare and Medicaid could generate substantial health gains and be highly cost-effective.

FDA Sodium Reduction Targets and the Food Industry: Are There Incentives to Reformulate? Microsimulation Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Policy Points The World Health Organization has recommended sodium reduction as a "best buy" to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD). Despite this, Congress has temporarily blocked the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from implementing voluntary industry targets for sodium reduction in processed foods, the implementation of which could cost the industry around $16 billion over 10 years. We modeled the health and economic impact of meeting the two-year and ten-year FDA targets, from the perspective of people working in the food system itself, over 20 years, from 2017 to 2036. Benefits of implementing the FDA voluntary sodium targets extend to food companies and food system workers, and the value of CVD-related health gains and cost savings are together greater than the government and industry costs of reformulation. CONTEXT: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) set draft voluntary targets to reduce sodium levels in processed foods. We aimed to determine cost effectiveness of meeting these draft sodium targets, from the perspective of US food system workers. METHODS: We employed a microsimulation cost-effectiveness analysis using the US IMPACT Food Policy model with two scenarios: (1) short term, achieving two-year FDA reformulation targets only, and (2) long term, achieving 10-year FDA reformulation targets. We modeled four close-to-reality populations: food system "ever" workers; food system "current" workers in 2017; and subsets of processed food "ever" and "current" workers. Outcomes included cardiovascular disease cases prevented and postponed as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from 2017 to 2036. FINDINGS: Among food system ever workers, achieving long-term sodium reduction targets could produce 20-year health gains of approximately 180,000 QALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 150,000 to 209,000) and health cost savings of approximately $5.2 billion (95% UI: $3.5 billion to $8.3 billion), with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $62,000 (95% UI: $1,000 to $171,000) per QALY gained. For the subset of processed food industry workers, health gains would be approximately 32,000 QALYs (95% UI: 27,000 to 37,000); cost savings, $1.0 billion (95% UI: $0.7bn to $1.6bn); and ICER, $486,000 (95% UI: $148,000 to $1,094,000) per QALY gained. Because many health benefits may occur in individuals older than 65 or the uninsured, these health savings would be shared among individuals, industry, and government. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of implementing the FDA voluntary sodium targets extend to food companies and food system workers, with the value of health gains and health care cost savings outweighing the costs of reformulation, although not for the processed food industry.

Cost-Effectiveness of a US National Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax With a Multistakeholder Approach: Who Pays and Who Benefits.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of a national penny-per-ounce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, overall and with stratified costs and benefits for 9 distinct stakeholder groups. METHODS: We used a validated microsimulation model (CVD PREDICT) to estimate cardiovascular disease reductions, quality-adjusted life years gained, and cost-effectiveness for US adults aged 35 to 85 years, evaluating full and partial consumer price pass-through. RESULTS: From health care and societal perspectives, the SSB tax was highly cost-saving. When we evaluated health gains, taxes paid, and out-of-pocket health care savings for 6 distinct consumer categories, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from $20 247 to $42 662 per quality-adjusted life year for 100% price pass-through (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios similar with 50% pass-through). For the beverage industry, net costs were $0.92 billion with 100% pass-through (largely tax-implementation costs) and $49.75 billion with 50% pass-through (largely because of partial industry coverage of the tax). For government, the SSB tax positively affected both tax revenues and health care cost savings. CONCLUSIONS: This stratified analysis improves on unitary approaches, illuminating distinct costs and benefits for stakeholders with political influence over SSB tax decisions.

Aims, design and preliminary findings of the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS).

BACKGROUND: The aim of the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey was to assess nutritional intake, health status and various behaviors in a representative sample of the Greek population. METHODS: Data collection took place from 01.09.2013 to 31.05.2015. Random stratified sampling was performed by (a) geographical density criteria of Greece (7 regions), (b) age group of the reference population (< 19, 20-64 and > 65 years) and (c) gender distribution. The final population enrolled included (throughout Greece), 4574 individuals (42.5% men; 57.5% women of who 47.2% were from Athens metropolitan area, 18.5% from Central Macedonia, and the remaining 34% almost equally scattered throughout the country (p for the comparisons with official statistics by region, age group and sex > 0.7). Questionnaires developed were based on extensive review of the literature, following a validation procedure when necessary. RESULTS: Preliminary analyses revealed that 32% of the adult population were overweight and 15.5% were obese, with significant gender differences in total and per age group (p < 0.001, for all). The majority of the adult population reported being active smokers (50.4%) or regular alcohol consumers (72.4%); with significant gender differences (p < 0.001, for all). Prevalence of hyperlipidemia was 16.7%, cardiovascular disease 13.9%, hypertension 13.3%, thyroid disease 13.8%, and Diabetes Mellitus 3.6%. Significant gender and age group differences were found in various diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Study's preliminary results provide valuable information about the Hellenic population's health. Findings from this survey could be used to detect disease risk factors for public health prevention policies and programs.

Mandating Front-of-Package Food Labels in the U.S. - What are the First Amendment Obstacles?

Front-of-package (FOP) food labels are symbols, schemes, or systems designed to communicate concise and useful nutrition-related information to consumers to facilitate healthier food choices. FOP label policies have been implemented internationally that could serve as policy models for the U.S. However, the First Amendment poses a potential obstacle to U.S. government-mandated FOP requirements. We systematically reviewed existing international and major U.S.-based nutrition-related FOP labels to consider potential U.S. policy options and conducted legal research to evaluate the feasibility of mandating a FOP label in the U.S. We identified 24 international and 6 U.S.-based FOP labeling schemes. FOP labels which only disclosed nutrient-specific data would likely meet First Amendment requirements. Certain interpretive FOP labels which provide factual information with colors or designs to assist consumers interpret the information could similarly withstand First Amendment scrutiny, but questions remain regarding whether certain colors or shapes would qualify as controversial and not constitutional. Labels that provide no nutrient information and only an image or icon to characterize the entire product would not likely withstand First Amendment scrutiny.

Cost-effectiveness of financial incentives and disincentives for improving food purchases and health through the US Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP): A microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) provides approximately US$70 billion annually to support food purchases by low-income households, supporting approximately 1 in 7 Americans. In the 2018 Farm Bill, potential SNAP revisions to improve diets and health could include financial incentives, disincentives, or restrictions for certain foods. However, the overall and comparative impacts on health outcomes and costs are not established. We aimed to estimate the health impact, program and healthcare costs, and cost-effectiveness of food incentives, disincentives, or restrictions in SNAP. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT), populated with national data on adult SNAP participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2014, policy effects from SNAP pilots and food pricing meta-analyses, diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy, food, and healthcare costs from published literature to estimate the overall and comparative impacts of 3 dietary policy interventions: (1) a 30% incentive for fruits and vegetables (F&V), (2) a 30% F&V incentive with a restriction of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and (3) a broader incentive/disincentive program for multiple foods that also preserves choice (SNAP-plus), combining 30% incentives for F&V, nuts, whole grains, fish, and plant-based oils and 30% disincentives for SSBs, junk food, and processed meats. Among approximately 14.5 million adults on SNAP at baseline with mean age 52 years, our simulation estimates that the F&V incentive over 5 years would prevent 38,782 cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, gain 18,928 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and save $1.21 billion in healthcare costs. Adding SSB restriction increased gains to 93,933 CVD events prevented, 45,864 QALYs gained, and $4.33 billion saved. For SNAP-plus, corresponding gains were 116,875 CVD events prevented, 56,056 QALYs gained, and $5.28 billion saved. Over a lifetime, the F&V incentive would prevent approximately 303,900 CVD events, gain 649,000 QALYs, and save $6.77 billion in healthcare costs. Adding SSB restriction increased gains to approximately 797,900 CVD events prevented, 2.11 million QALYs gained, and $39.16 billion in healthcare costs saved. For SNAP-plus, corresponding gains were approximately 940,000 CVD events prevented, 2.47 million QALYs gained, and $41.93 billion saved. From a societal perspective (including programmatic costs but excluding food subsidy costs as an intra-societal transfer), all 3 scenarios were cost-saving. From a government affordability perspective (i.e., incorporating food subsidy costs, including for children and young adults for whom no health gains were modeled), the F&V incentive was of low cost-effectiveness at 5 years (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $548,053/QALY) but achieved cost-effectiveness ($66,525/QALY) over a lifetime. Adding SSB restriction, the intervention was cost-effective at 10 years ($68,857/QALY) and very cost-effective at 20 years ($26,435/QALY) and over a lifetime ($5,216/QALY). The combined incentive/disincentive program produced the largest health gains and reduced both healthcare and food costs, with net cost-savings of $10.16 billion at 5 years and $63.33 billion over a lifetime. Results were consistent in probabilistic sensitivity analyses: for example, from a societal perspective, 1,000 of 1,000 iterations (100%) were cost-saving for all 3 interventions. Due to the nature of simulation studies, the findings cannot prove the health and cost impacts of national SNAP interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Leveraging healthier eating through SNAP could generate substantial health benefits and be cost-effective or cost-saving. A combined food incentive/disincentive program appears most effective and may be most attractive to policy-makers.