The maintenance of genetic diversity under host-parasite coevolution in finite, structured populations.

As a corollary to the Red Queen hypothesis, host-parasite coevolution has been hypothesized to maintain genetic variation in both species. Recent theoretical work, however, suggests that reciprocal natural selection alone is insufficient to maintain variation at individual loci. As highlighted by our brief review of the theoretical literature, models of host-parasite coevolution often vary along multiple axes (e.g. inclusion of ecological feedbacks or abiotic selection mosaics), complicating a comprehensive understanding of the effects of interacting evolutionary processes on diversity. Here we develop a series of comparable models to explore the effect of interactions between spatial structures and antagonistic coevolution on genetic diversity. Using a matching alleles model in finite populations connected by migration, we find that, in contrast to panmictic populations, coevolution in a spatially structured environment can maintain genetic variation relative to neutral expectations with migration alone. These results demonstrate that geographic structure is essential for understanding the effect of coevolution on biological diversity.

Virulence Evolution of Pathogens That Can Grow in Reservoir Environments.

AbstractMany pathogens reside in environmental reservoirs within which they can reproduce and from which they can infect hosts. These facultative pathogens experience different selective pressures in host-associated environments and reservoir environments. Heterogeneous selective pressures have the potential to influence the virulence evolution of these pathogens. Previous research has examined how environmental transmission influences the selective pressures shaping the virulence of pathogens that cannot reproduce in environmental reservoirs, yet many pathogens of humans, crop plants, and livestock can reproduce in these environments. We build on this work to examine how reproduction in reservoirs influences disease dynamics and virulence evolution in a simple facultative pathogen model. We use adaptive dynamics to examine the evolutionary dynamics of facultative pathogens under potential trade-offs between transmission and virulence, shedding and virulence, and reservoir persistence and virulence. We then perform critical function analysis to generalize the results independent of specific trade-off assumptions. We determine that diverse virulence strategies, sometimes resulting from evolutionary bistability or evolutionary branching conditions, are expected for facultative pathogens. Our findings motivate research establishing which trade-offs most strongly influence the virulence evolution of facultative pathogens.

Looking across Scales in Disease Ecology and Evolution.

AbstractOver the past few decades, it has become clear that ecological and evolutionary dynamics are influenced by processes operating across spatial and temporal scales. Processes that operate on small spatial scales have the potential to influence dynamics at much larger scales; for example, a change in the physiology of a primary producer can alter primary productivity in an ecosystem. Similarly, evolution-a process that historically was thought of as occurring at longer timescales-can influence ecological dynamics and vice versa. The importance of considering multiple scales is broadly true in ecology and evolution, and it is especially important for studies of disease ecology and evolution. Yet characterizing the scales at which individual studies operate is surprisingly challenging, as we (re)discovered while trying to characterize articles published in this journal over the past three decades. However, while it is difficult to determine where one scale ends and another begins, it is also clear that work that spans across a spectrum can yield insights that could not be gleaned from a narrower focus. To demonstrate this, we highlight studies previously published in this journal that show the value of working across scales. We then introduce the six articles that comprise this Focused Topic section. Together, these articles present systems, theory, and methods that provide important insights that could not have been obtained from studying a single scale in isolation.

Past and future uses of text mining in ecology and evolution.

Ecology and evolutionary biology, like other scientific fields, are experiencing an exponential growth of academic manuscripts. As domain knowledge accumulates, scientists will need new computational approaches for identifying relevant literature to read and include in formal literature reviews and meta-analyses. Importantly, these approaches can also facilitate automated, large-scale data synthesis tasks and build structured databases from the information in the texts of primary journal articles, books, grey literature, and websites. The increasing availability of digital text, computational resources, and machine-learning based language models have led to a revolution in text analysis and natural language processing (NLP) in recent years. NLP has been widely adopted across the biomedical sciences but is rarely used in ecology and evolutionary biology. Applying computational tools from text mining and NLP will increase the efficiency of data synthesis, improve the reproducibility of literature reviews, formalize analyses of research biases and knowledge gaps, and promote data-driven discovery of patterns across ecology and evolutionary biology. Here we present recent use cases from ecology and evolution, and discuss future applications, limitations and ethical issues.

Understanding dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes production: Insights from an age-structured model.

Many models of within-host malaria infection dynamics have been formulated since the pioneering work of Anderson et al. in 1989. Biologically, the goal of these models is to understand what governs the severity of infections, the patterns of infectiousness, and the variation thereof across individual hosts. Mathematically, these models are based on dynamical systems, with standard approaches ranging from K-compartments ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to delay differential equations (DDEs), to capture the relatively constant duration of replication and bursting once a parasite infects a host red blood cell. Using malariatherapy data, which offers fine-scale resolution on the dynamics of infection across a number of individual hosts, we compare the fit and robustness of one of these standard approaches (K-compartments ODE) with a partial differential equations (PDEs) model, which explicitly tracks the "age" of an infected cell. While both models perform quite similarly in terms of goodness-of-fit for suitably chosen K, the K-compartments ODE model particularly overestimates parasite densities early on in infections when the number of repeated compartments is not large enough. Finally, the K-compartments ODE model (for suitably chosen K) and the PDE model highlight a strong qualitative connection between the density of transmissible parasite stages (i.e., gametocytes) and the density of host-damaging (and asexually-replicating) parasite stages. This finding provides a simple tool for predicting which hosts are most infectious to mosquitoes -vectors of Plasmodium parasites- which is a crucial component of global efforts to control and eliminate malaria.

Immune selection suppresses the emergence of drug resistance in malaria parasites but facilitates its spread.

Although drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum typically evolves in regions of low transmission, resistance spreads readily following introduction to regions with a heavier disease burden. This suggests that the origin and the spread of resistance are governed by different processes, and that high transmission intensity specifically impedes the origin. Factors associated with high transmission, such as highly immune hosts and competition within genetically diverse infections, are associated with suppression of resistant lineages within hosts. However, interactions between these factors have rarely been investigated and the specific relationship between adaptive immunity and selection for resistance has not been explored. Here, we developed a multiscale, agent-based model of Plasmodium parasites, hosts, and vectors to examine how host and parasite dynamics shape the evolution of resistance in populations with different transmission intensities. We found that selection for antigenic novelty ("immune selection") suppressed the evolution of resistance in high transmission settings. We show that high levels of population immunity increased the strength of immune selection relative to selection for resistance. As a result, immune selection delayed the evolution of resistance in high transmission populations by allowing novel, sensitive lineages to remain in circulation at the expense of the spread of a resistant lineage. In contrast, in low transmission settings, we observed that resistant strains were able to sweep to high population prevalence without interference. Additionally, we found that the relationship between immune selection and resistance changed when resistance was widespread. Once resistance was common enough to be found on many antigenic backgrounds, immune selection stably maintained resistant parasites in the population by allowing them to proliferate, even in untreated hosts, when resistance was linked to a novel epitope. Our results suggest that immune selection plays a role in the global pattern of resistance evolution.

Uncovering drivers of dose-dependence and individual variation in malaria infection outcomes.

To understand why some hosts get sicker than others from the same type of infection, it is essential to explain how key processes, such as host responses to infection and parasite growth, are influenced by various biotic and abiotic factors. In many disease systems, the initial infection dose impacts host morbidity and mortality. To explore drivers of dose-dependence and individual variation in infection outcomes, we devised a mathematical model of malaria infection that allowed host and parasite traits to be linear functions (reaction norms) of the initial dose. We fitted the model, using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, to experimental time-series data of acute Plasmodium chabaudi infection across doses spanning seven orders of magnitude. We found evidence for both dose-dependent facilitation and debilitation of host responses. Most importantly, increasing dose reduced the strength of activation of indiscriminate host clearance of red blood cells while increasing the half-life of that response, leading to the maximal response at an intermediate dose. We also explored the causes of diverse infection outcomes across replicate mice receiving the same dose. Besides random noise in the injected dose, we found variation in peak parasite load was due to unobserved individual variation in host responses to clear infected cells. Individual variation in anaemia was likely driven by random variation in parasite burst size, which is linked to the rate of host cells lost to malaria infection. General host vigour in the absence of infection was also correlated with host health during malaria infection. Our work demonstrates that the reaction norm approach provides a useful quantitative framework for examining the impact of a continuous external factor on within-host infection processes.

Deconstructing the Impact of Malaria Vector Diversity on Disease Risk.

AbstractRecent years have seen significant progress in understanding the impact of host community assemblage on disease risk, yet diversity in disease vectors has rarely been investigated. Using published malaria and mosquito surveys from Kenya, we analyzed the relationship between malaria prevalence and multiple axes of mosquito diversity: abundance, species richness, and composition. We found a net amplification of malaria prevalence by vector species richness, a result of a strong direct positive association between richness and prevalence alongside a weak indirect negative association between the two, mediated through mosquito community composition. One plausible explanation of these patterns is species niche complementarity, whereby less competent vector species contribute to disease transmission by filling spatial or temporal gaps in transmission left by dominant vectors. A greater understanding of vector community assemblage and function, as well as any interactions between host and vector biodiversity, could offer insights to both fundamental and applied ecology.

Adaptive plasticity in the gametocyte conversion rate of malaria parasites.

Sexually reproducing parasites, such as malaria parasites, experience a trade-off between the allocation of resources to asexual replication and the production of sexual forms. Allocation by malaria parasites to sexual forms (the conversion rate) is variable but the evolutionary drivers of this plasticity are poorly understood. We use evolutionary theory for life histories to combine a mathematical model and experiments to reveal that parasites adjust conversion rate according to the dynamics of asexual densities in the blood of the host. Our model predicts the direction of change in conversion rates that returns the greatest fitness after perturbation of asexual densities by different doses of antimalarial drugs. The loss of a high proportion of asexuals is predicted to elicit increased conversion (terminal investment), while smaller losses are managed by reducing conversion (reproductive restraint) to facilitate within-host survival and future transmission. This non-linear pattern of allocation is consistent with adaptive reproductive strategies observed in multicellular organisms. We then empirically estimate conversion rates of the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium chabaudi in response to the killing of asexual stages by different doses of antimalarial drugs and forecast the short-term fitness consequences of these responses. Our data reveal the predicted non-linear pattern, and this is further supported by analyses of previous experiments that perturb asexual stage densities using drugs or within-host competition, across multiple parasite genotypes. Whilst conversion rates, across all datasets, are most strongly influenced by changes in asexual density, parasites also modulate conversion according to the availability of red blood cell resources. In summary, increasing conversion maximises short-term transmission and reducing conversion facilitates in-host survival and thus, future transmission. Understanding patterns of parasite allocation to reproduction matters because within-host replication is responsible for disease symptoms and between-host transmission determines disease spread.

Resistance to natural and synthetic gene drive systems.

Scientists are rapidly developing synthetic gene drive elements intended for release into natural populations. These are intended to control or eradicate disease vectors and pests, or to spread useful traits through wild populations for disease control or conservation purposes. However, a crucial problem for gene drives is the evolution of resistance against them, preventing their spread. Understanding the mechanisms by which populations might evolve resistance is essential for engineering effective gene drive systems. This review summarizes our current knowledge of drive resistance in both natural and synthetic gene drives. We explore how insights from naturally occurring and synthetic drive systems can be integrated to improve the design of gene drives, better predict the outcome of releases and understand genomic conflict in general.

Coevolution of virulence and immunosuppression in multiple infections.

Many components of host-parasite interactions have been shown to affect the way virulence (i.e. parasite-induced harm to the host) evolves. However, coevolution of multiple parasite traits is often neglected. We explore how an immunosuppressive adaptation of parasites affects and coevolves with virulence in multiple infections. Applying the adaptive dynamics framework to epidemiological models with coinfection, we show that immunosuppression is a double-edged sword for the evolution of virulence. On one hand, it amplifies the adaptive benefit of virulence by increasing the abundance of coinfections through epidemiological feedbacks. On the other hand, immunosuppression hinders host recovery, prolonging the duration of infection and elevating the cost of killing the host (as more opportunities for transmission will be forgone if the host dies). The balance between the cost and benefit of immunosuppression varies across different background mortality rates of hosts. In addition, we find that immunosuppression evolution is influenced considerably by the precise trade-off shape determining the effect of immunosuppression on host recovery and susceptibility to further infection. These results demonstrate that the evolution of virulence is shaped by immunosuppression while highlighting that the evolution of immune evasion mechanisms deserves further research attention.

Immune system handling time may alter the outcome of competition between pathogens and the immune system.

Predators may be limited in their ability to kill prey (i.e., have type II or III functional responses), an insight that has had far-reaching consequences in the ecological literature. With few exceptions, however, this possibility has not been extended to the behaviour of immune cells, which kill pathogens much as predators kill their prey. Rather, models of the within-host environment have tended to tacitly assume that immune cells have an unlimited ability to target and kill pathogens (i.e., a type I functional response). Here we explore the effects of changing this assumption on infection outcomes (i.e., pathogen loads). We incorporate immune cell handling time into an ecological model of the within-host environment that considers both the predatory nature of the pathogen-immune cell interaction as well as competition between immune cells and pathogens for host resources. Unless pathogens can preempt immune cells for host resources, adding an immune cell handling time increases equilibrium pathogen load. We find that the shape of the relationship between energy intake and pathogen load can change: with a type I functional response, pathogen load is maximised at intermediate inputs, while for a type II or III functional response, pathogen load is solely increasing. With a type II functional response, pathogen load can fluctuate rather than settling to an equilibrium, a phenomenon unobserved with type I or III functional responses. Our work adds to a growing literature highlighting the role of resource availability in host-parasite interactions. Implications of our results for adaptive anorexia are discussed.

Evolutionary rescue of a parasite population by mutation rate evolution.

The risk of antibiotic resistance evolution in parasites is a major problem for public health. Identifying factors which promote antibiotic resistance evolution is thus a priority in evolutionary medicine. The rate at which new mutations enter the parasite population is one important predictor; however, mutation rate is not necessarily a fixed quantity, as is often assumed, but can itself evolve. Here we explore the possible impacts of mutation rate evolution on the fate of a disease circulating in a host population, which is being treated with drugs, the use of which varies over time. Using an evolutionary rescue framework, we find that mutation rate evolution provides a dramatic increase in the probability that a parasite population survives treatment in only a limited region, while providing little or no advantage in other regions. Both epidemiological features, such as the virulence of infection, and population genetic parameters, such as recombination rate, play important roles in determining the probability of evolutionary rescue and whether mutation rate evolution enhances the probability of evolutionary rescue or not. While efforts to curtail mutation rate evolution in parasites may be worthwhile under some circumstances, our results suggest that this need not always be the case.

Quantifying Transmission Investment in Malaria Parasites.

Many microparasites infect new hosts with specialized life stages, requiring a subset of the parasite population to forgo proliferation and develop into transmission forms. Transmission stage production influences infectivity, host exploitation, and the impact of medical interventions like drug treatment. Predicting how parasites will respond to public health efforts on both epidemiological and evolutionary timescales requires understanding transmission strategies. These strategies can rarely be observed directly and must typically be inferred from infection dynamics. Using malaria as a case study, we test previously described methods for inferring transmission stage investment against simulated data generated with a model of within-host infection dynamics, where the true transmission investment is known. We show that existing methods are inadequate and potentially very misleading. The key difficulty lies in separating transmission stages produced by different generations of parasites. We develop a new approach that performs much better on simulated data. Applying this approach to real data from mice infected with a single Plasmodium chabaudi strain, we estimate that transmission investment varies from zero to 20%, with evidence for variable investment over time in some hosts, but not others. These patterns suggest that, even in experimental infections where host genetics and other environmental factors are controlled, parasites may exhibit remarkably different patterns of transmission investment.

Facilitation through altered resource availability in a mixed-species rodent malaria infection.

A major challenge in disease ecology is to understand how co-infecting parasite species interact. We manipulate in vivo resources and immunity to explain interactions between two rodent malaria parasites, Plasmodium chabaudi and P. yoelii. These species have analogous resource-use strategies to the human parasites Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax: P. chabaudi and P. falciparum infect red blood cells (RBC) of all ages (RBC generalist); P. yoelii and P. vivax preferentially infect young RBCs (RBC specialist). We find that: (1) recent infection with the RBC generalist facilitates the RBC specialist (P. yoelii density is enhanced ~10 fold). This occurs because the RBC generalist increases availability of the RBC specialist's preferred resource; (2) co-infections with the RBC generalist and RBC specialist are highly virulent; (3) and the presence of an RBC generalist in a host population can increase the prevalence of an RBC specialist. Thus, we show that resources shape how parasite species interact and have epidemiological consequences.

The role of models in translating within-host dynamics to parasite evolution.

Mathematical modelling provides an effective way to challenge conventional wisdom about parasite evolution and investigate why parasites 'do what they do' within the host. Models can reveal when intuition cannot explain observed patterns, when more complicated biology must be considered, and when experimental and statistical methods are likely to mislead. We describe how models of within-host infection dynamics can refine experimental design, and focus on the case study of malaria to highlight how integration between models and data can guide understanding of parasite fitness in three areas: (1) the adaptive significance of chronic infections; (2) the potential for tradeoffs between virulence and transmission; and (3) the implications of within-vector dynamics. We emphasize that models are often useful when they highlight unexpected patterns in parasite evolution, revealing instead why intuition yields the wrong answer and what combination of theory and data are needed to advance understanding.

Aggressive chemotherapy and the selection of drug resistant pathogens.

Drug resistant pathogens are one of the key public health challenges of the 21st century. There is a widespread belief that resistance is best managed by using drugs to rapidly eliminate target pathogens from patients so as to minimize the probability that pathogens acquire resistance de novo. Yet strong drug pressure imposes intense selection in favor of resistance through alleviation of competition with wild-type populations. Aggressive chemotherapy thus generates opposing evolutionary forces which together determine the rate of drug resistance emergence. Identifying treatment regimens which best retard resistance evolution while maximizing health gains and minimizing disease transmission requires empirical analysis of resistance evolution in vivo in conjunction with measures of clinical outcomes and infectiousness. Using rodent malaria in laboratory mice, we found that less aggressive chemotherapeutic regimens substantially reduced the probability of onward transmission of resistance (by >150-fold), without compromising health outcomes. Our experiments suggest that there may be cases where resistance evolution can be managed more effectively with treatment regimens other than those which reduce pathogen burdens as fast as possible.

The path of least resistance: aggressive or moderate treatment?

The evolution of resistance to antimicrobial chemotherapy is a major and growing cause of human mortality and morbidity. Comparatively little attention has been paid to how different patient treatment strategies shape the evolution of resistance. In particular, it is not clear whether treating individual patients aggressively with high drug dosages and long treatment durations, or moderately with low dosages and short durations can better prevent the evolution and spread of drug resistance. Here, we summarize the very limited available empirical evidence across different pathogens and provide a conceptual framework describing the information required to effectively manage drug pressure to minimize resistance evolution.

The problem of auto-correlation in parasitology.

Explaining the contribution of host and pathogen factors in driving infection dynamics is a major ambition in parasitology. There is increasing recognition that analyses based on single summary measures of an infection (e.g., peak parasitaemia) do not adequately capture infection dynamics and so, the appropriate use of statistical techniques to analyse dynamics is necessary to understand infections and, ultimately, control parasites. However, the complexities of within-host environments mean that tracking and analysing pathogen dynamics within infections and among hosts poses considerable statistical challenges. Simple statistical models make assumptions that will rarely be satisfied in data collected on host and parasite parameters. In particular, model residuals (unexplained variance in the data) should not be correlated in time or space. Here we demonstrate how failure to account for such correlations can result in incorrect biological inference from statistical analysis. We then show how mixed effects models can be used as a powerful tool to analyse such repeated measures data in the hope that this will encourage better statistical practices in parasitology.