Readiness for non-communicable disease service delivery in Ethiopia: an empirical analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia's health system is overwhelmed by the growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In this study, we assessed the availability of and readiness for NCD services and the interaction of NCD services with other essential and non-NCD services. METHODS: The analysis focused on four main NCD services: diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and cancer screening. We used data from the 2018 Ethiopian Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) survey. As defined by the World Health Organization, readiness, both general and service-specific, was measured based on the mean percentage availability of the tracer indicators, such as trained staff and guidelines, equipment, diagnostic capacity, and essential medicines and commodities needed for delivering essential health services and NCD-specific services, respectively. The survey comprised 632 nationally representative healthcare facilities, and we applied mixed-effects linear and ordered logit models to identify factors affecting NCD service availability and readiness. RESULTS: Only 8% of facilities provided all four NCD services. Availability varied for specific services, with cervical cancer screening being the least available service in the country: less than 10% of facilities, primarily higher-level hospitals, provided cervical cancer screening. General service readiness was a strong predictor of NCD service availability. Differences in NCD service availability and readiness between regions and facility types were significant. Increased readiness for specific NCD services was significantly associated with increased readiness for communicable disease services and interacted with the readiness for other NCD services. CONCLUSION: NCD service availability has considerable regional variation and is positively associated with general and communicable disease services readiness. Readiness for specific NCD services interacted with one another. The findings suggest an integrated approach to service delivery, focussing holistically on all disease services, is needed. There also needs to be increased attention to reducing resource allocation variation between facility types and locations.

Health workers' experience of providing second-trimester abortion care in Ethiopia: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Second-trimester abortions are less common than abortions in the first trimester, yet they disproportionately account for a higher burden of abortion-related mortality and morbidity worldwide. Health workers play a crucial role in granting or denying access to these services, yet little is known about their experiences. Ethiopia has been successful in reducing mortality due to unsafe abortion over the past decade, but access to second trimester abortion remains a challenge. The aim of this study is to better understand this issue by exploring the experiences of second-trimester abortion providers working in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: A qualitative study with 13 in-depth semi-structured interviews with 16 health workers directly involved in providing second-trimester abortions, this included obstetrician and gynaecologist specialists and residents, general practitioners, nurses, and midwives. Data was collected at four public hospitals and one non-governmental clinic in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and analysed using Malterud's text-condensation method. RESULTS: The providers recognized the critical need for second-trimester abortion services and were motivated by their empathy towards women who often sought care late due to marginalisation and poverty making it difficult to access abortion before the second trimester. However, service provision was challenging according to the providers, and barriers like lack of access to essential drugs and equipment, few providers willing to conduct abortions late in pregnancy and unclear guidelines were commonly experienced. This led to highly demanding working conditions. The providers experienced ethical dilemmas pertaining to the possible viability of the fetus and women desperately requesting the service after the legal limit. CONCLUSIONS: Second-trimester abortion providers faced severe barriers and ethical dilemmas pushing their moral threshold and medical risk-taking in efforts to deliver second-trimester abortions to vulnerable women in need of the service. Effort is needed to minimize health system barriers and improve guidelines and support for second-trimester abortion providers in order to increase access and quality of second-trimester abortion services in Ethiopia. The barriers forcing women into second trimester abortions also need to be addressed.

Progress towards the 2020 fast track HIV/AIDS reduction targets across ages in Ethiopia as compared to neighboring countries using global burden of diseases 2017 data.

BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.3, targets to eliminate HIV from being a public health threat by 2030. For better tracking of this target interim Fast Track milestones for 2020 and composite complementary measures have been indicated. This study measured the Fast Track progress in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia across ages compared to neighboring countries. METHODS: The National Data Management Center for health's research team at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute has analyzed the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 secondary data for the year 2010 to 2017 for Ethiopia and its neighbors. GBD 2017 data sources were census, demographic and a health survey, prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission, antiretroviral treatment programs, sentinel surveillance, and UNAIDS reports. Age-standardized and age-specific HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), incidence:mortality ratio and incidence:prevalence ratio were calculated with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Ethiopia and neighboring countries recorded slow progress in reducing new HIV infection since 2010. Only Uganda would achieve the 75% target by 2020. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda already achieved the 75% mortality reduction target set for 2020. The incidence: prevalence ratio for Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda were < 0.03, indicating the countries were on track to end HIV by 2030. Ethiopia had an incidence: mortality ratio < 1 due to high mortality; while Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda had a ratio of > 1 due to high incidence. The HIV incidence rate in Ethiopia was dropped by 76% among under 5 children in 2017 compared to 2010 and the country would likely to attain the 2020 national target, but far behind achieving the target among the 15-49 age group. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia and neighboring countries have made remarkable progress towards achieving the 75% HIV/AIDS mortality reduction target by 2020, although they progressed poorly in reducing HIV incidence. By recording an incidence:prevalence ratio benchmark of less than 0.03, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda are well heading towards epidemic control. Nonetheless, the high HIV/AIDS mortality rate in Ethiopia for its incidence requires innovative strategies to reach out undiagnosed cases and to build institutional capacity for generating strong evidence to ensure sustainable epidemic control.

Exploring inequities in skilled care at birth among migrant population in a metropolitan city Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; a qualitative study.

INTRODUCTION: Ethiopia records high levels of inequity in skilled birth care (SBC), where the gaps are much wider among urban migrant women. An intervention project has been conducted in Addis Ababa, intending to improve quality and to ensure equitable access to maternal and newborn care services. As part of the project, this study explored the inequities in maternal health care among migrant women in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: A qualitative community based study was conducted from April to May 2014 among 45 purposefully selected internal migrant women. Eleven women who give birth at home and eight who gave birth at health facility in the last year preceding the study participated in in-depth interviews. Four primiparas' young women, 18 women who have children and four grandmothers participated in focus group discussions. Guides were used for data collection. Using framework and content analysis three themes and four sub-themes emerged. RESULTS: According to the informants, patterns of service utilization varied widely. Antenatal care and infant immunization were fairly equally accessed across the different age groups of informants in their most recent birth irrespective of where they gave birth, yet obvious access gaps were reported in SBC and postpartum care. There were missed opportunities to postpartum care. Only few women had received postpartum care despite, some of the women delivering in the health facility and many visiting the health facilities for infant immunization. The four emerged sub-themes reportedly influencing access and utilization of SBC were social influences, physical access to health facility, risk perceptions and perceived quality of care and disrespect. Of these social, structural and health system factors, informants presented experiences of disrespectful care as a powerful deterrent to SBC. CONCLUSIONS: Migrant women constitute disadvantaged communities in Addis Ababa and have unequal access to SBC and postpartum care. This happens in the backdrop of fairly equitable access to antenatal care, infant immunization, universal health coverage and free access to maternal and newborn care. Addressing the underlying determinants for the inequities and bridging the quality gaps in maternal and newborn services with due emphasis on respectful care for migrant women need tailored intervention and prioritization.

Current evidence on basic emergency obstetric and newborn care services in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; a cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Emergency obstetric and neonatal care (EmONC) is a high impact priority intervention highly recommended for improving maternal and neonatal health outcomes. In 2008, Ethiopia conducted a national EmONC survey that revealed implementation gaps, mainly due to resource constraints and poor competence among providers. As part of an ongoing project, this paper examined progress in the implementation of the basic EmONC (BEmONC) in Addis Ababa and compared with the 2008 survey. METHODS: A facility based intervention project was conducted in 10 randomly selected public health centers (HCs) in Addis Ababa and baseline data collected on BEmONC status from January to March 2013. Retrospective routine record reviews and facility observations were done in 29 HCs in 2008 and in10 HCs in 2013. Twenty-five providers in 2008 and 24 in 2013 participated in BEmONC knowledge and skills assessment. All the data were collected using standard tools. Descriptive statistics and t-tests were used. RESULTS: In 2013, all the surveyed HCs had continuous water supply, reliable access to telephone, logbooks & phartograph. Fifty precent of the HCs in 2013 and 34% in 2008 had access to 24 hours ambulance services. The ratio of midwives to 100 expected births were 0.26 in 2008 and 10.3 in 2013. In 2008, 67% of the HCs had a formal fee waiver system while all the surveyed HCs had it in 2013. HCs reporting a consistent supply of uterotonic drugs were 85% in 2008 and 100% in 2013. The majority of the providers who participated in both surveys reported to have insufficient knowledge in diagnosing postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) and birth asphyxia as well as poor skills in neonatal resuscitation. Comparing with the 2008 survey, no significant improvements were observed in providers' knowledge and competence in 2013 on PPH management and essential newborn care (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: There are advances in infrastructure, medical supplies and personnel for EmONC provision, yet poor providers' competences have persisted contributing to the quality gaps on BEmONC in Addis Ababa. Considering short-term in-service trainings using novel approaches for ensuring desired competences for large number of providers in short time period is imperative.

Standard basic emergency obstetric and neonatal care training in Addis Ababa; trainees reaction and knowledge acquisition.

BACKGROUND: In 2010, the Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia (FMOH) has developed standard Basic Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (BEmONC) in-service training curricula to respond to the high demand for competency in EmONC. However, the effectiveness of the training curricula has not been well documented. A collaborative intervention project in Addis Ababa has trained providers using the standard BEmONC curricula where this paper presents Krikpartick level 1 and level 2 evaluation of the training. METHODS: The project has been conducted in 10 randomly selected public health centers (HC) in Addis Ababa. Providers working in the labour wards of the selected HCs have received the standard BEmONC training between May and July 2013. Using standard tools, trainees' reaction to the course and factual knowledge during the immediate post-course and six months after the training were assessed. Descriptive statistics and t-tests were done. RESULTS: Of the total 82 providers who received the training, 30 (36.6%) were male, 61 (74.4%) were midwives. Providers' work experiences ranged from 1 month to 37 years. Seventy-four (89%) providers reported that the training was appropriate for their work, 95% reported that the training have updated their knowledge & skills, while 27 (32.9%) reported that the training facilities & arrangements were unsatisfactory. The mean immediate post-course knowledge score was 83.5% and 33 (40%) providers did not achieve knowledge-based mastery in their first attempt. The midwives were more likely to achieve knowledge-based mastery than the nurses (p < 0.05). The mean knowledge score six-months post-training was 80.2% and 40% have scored knowledge based mastery. CONCLUSIONS: Being one of the first papers reporting the implementation of the standard in-service BEmONC training curriculum, we have identified an important limitation on the course evaluations of the curriculum, which need urgent consideration. The majority of the trainees has reported favourable reaction to the training, but many of them did not achieve knowledge-based mastery in the immediate post training although the knowledge retention six months post training was encouraging.

Effective coverage of curative child health services in Ethiopia: analysis of the Demographic and Health Survey and Service Provision Assessment survey.

OBJECTIVES: Despite a remarkable decline, childhood morbidity and mortality in Ethiopia remain high and inequitable. Thus, we estimated the effective coverage of curative child health services in Ethiopia. DESIGN: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of data from the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the 2014 Ethiopia Service Provision Assessment Plus (SPA+) survey. SETTING: Nationally representative household and facility surveys. PARTICIPANTS AND OUTCOMES: We included a sample of 2096 children under 5 years old (from DHS) who had symptoms of one or more common childhood illnesses (diarrhoea, fever and acute respiratory infection) and estimated the percentage of sick children who were taken to a health facility (crude coverage). To construct a quality index of child health services, we used the SPA+ survey, which was conducted in 1076 health facilities and included observations of care for 1980 sick children and surveys of 1908 mothers/caregivers and 5328 health providers. We applied the Donabedian quality of care framework to identify 58 quality parameters (structure, 31; process, 16; and outcome, 11) and used the weighted additive method to estimate the overall quality of care index. Finally, we multiplied the crude coverage by the quality of care index to estimate the effective coverage of curative child health services, nationally and by region. RESULTS: Among the 2096 sick children, only 38.4% (95% CI: 36.5 to 40.4) of them were taken to a health facility. The overall quality of care was 54.4%, weighted from structure (30.0%), process (9.2%) and outcome (15.2%). The effective coverage of curative child health services was estimated at 20.9% (95%CI: 19.9 to 22.0) nationally, ranging from 16.9% in Somali to 34.6% in Dire Dawa regions. CONCLUSIONS: System-wide interventions are required to address both demand-side and supply-side bottlenecks in the provision of child health services if child health-related targets are to be achieved in Ethiopia.

From political priority to service delivery: complexities to real-life priority of abortion services in Ethiopia.

Improving access to abortion services has been coined a high priority by the Ethiopian Federal Ministry of Health. Nevertheless, many women are still struggling to access abortion services. The dedicated commitment to expanding abortion services by central authorities and the difficulties in further improving access to the services make for an interesting case to explore the real-life complexities of health priority setting. This article thus explores what it means to make abortion services a priority by drawing on in-depth interviews with healthcare bureaucrats and key stakeholders working closely with abortion service policy and implementation. Data were collected from February to April 2022. Health bureaucrats from 9 of the 12 regional states in Ethiopia and the Federal Ministry of Health were interviewed in addition to key stakeholders from professional organizations and NGOs. The study found that political will and priority to abortion services by central authorities were not necessarily enough to ensure access to the service across the health sector. At the regional and local level, there were considerable challenges with a lack of funding, equipment and human resources for implementing and expanding access to abortion services. The inadequacy of indicators and reporting systems hindered accountability and made it difficult to give priority to abortion services among the series of health programmes and priorities that local health authorities had to implement. The situation was further challenged by the contested nature of the abortion issue itself, both in the general population, but also amongst health bureaucrats and hospital leaders. This study casts a light on the complex and entangled processes of turning national-level priorities into on-the-ground practice and highlights the real-life challenges of setting and implementing health priorities.

Estimated travel time and staffing constraints to accessing the Ethiopian health care system: A two-step floating catchment area analysis.

Background: Despite large investments in the public health care system, disparities in health outcomes persist between lower- and upper-income individuals, as well as rural vs urban dwellers in Ethiopia. Evidence from Ethiopia and other low- and middle-income countries suggests that challenges in health care access may contribute to poverty in these settings. Methods: We employed a two-step floating catchment area to estimate variations in spatial access to health care and in staffing levels at health care facilities. We estimated the average travel time from the population centers of administrative areas and adjusted them with provider-to-population ratios. To test hypotheses about the role of travel time vs staffing, we applied Spearman's rank tests to these two variables against the access score to assess the significance of observed variations. Results: Among Ethiopia's 11 first-level administrative units, Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, and Harari had the best access scores. Regions with the lowest access scores were generally poorer and more rural/pastoral. Approximately 18% of the country did not have access to a public health care facility within a two-hour walk. Our results suggest that spatial access and staffing issues both contribute to access challenges. Conclusion: Investments both in new health facilities and staffing in existing facilities will be necessary to improve health care access within Ethiopia. Because rural and low-income areas are more likely to have poor access, future strategies for expanding and strengthening the health care system should strongly emphasize equity and the role of improved access in reducing poverty.

Comparing HIV prevalence estimates from prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission programme and the antenatal HIV surveillance in Addis Ababa.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of reliable data, antenatal HIV surveillance has been used to monitor the HIV epidemic since the late 1980s. Currently, routine data from Prevention of Mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) programmes are increasingly available. Evaluating whether the PMTCT programme reports provide comparable HIV prevalence estimates with the antenatal surveillance reports is important. In this study, we compared HIV prevalence estimates from routine PMTCT programme and antenatal surveillance in Addis Ababa with the aim to come up with evidence based recommendation. METHODS: Summary data were collected from PMTCT programmes and antenatal surveillance reports within the catchment of Addis Ababa. The PMTCT programme data were obtained from routine monthly reports from 2004 to 2009 and from published antenatal HIV surveillance reports from 2003 to 2009. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: In Addis Ababa, PMTCT sites had increased from six in 2004 to 54 in 2009. The site expansion was accompanied by an increased number of women testing. There were marked increases in the rate of HIV testing following the introduction of routine opt-out HIV testing approach. Paralleling these increases, the HIV prevalence showed a steady decline from 10.0% in 2004 to 4.5% in 2009. There were five antenatal surveillance sites from 2003 to 2007 in Addis Ababa and they increased to seven by 2009. Four rounds of surveillance data from five sites showed a declining trend in HIV prevalence over the years. The overall antenatal surveillance data also showed that the HIV prevalence among antenatal attendees had declined from 12.4% in 2003 to 5.5% in 2009. The HIV prevalence estimates from PMTCT programme were 6.2% and 4.5% and from antenatal surveillance 6.1 and 5.5% in 2008 and 2009 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There were consistent HIV prevalence estimates from PMTCT programme and from antenatal surveillance reports. Both data sources showed a marked decline in HIV prevalence among antenatal care attendees in Addis Ababa. This study concludes that the routine data from the PMTCT programmes in Addis Ababa provides comparable HIV prevalence estimates with antenatal HIV surveillance data and could be used for monitoring trends.

Hospitalization costs for COVID-19 in Ethiopia: Empirical data and analysis from Addis Ababa's largest dedicated treatment center.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused profound health, economic, and social disruptions globally. We assessed the full costs of hospitalization for COVID-19 disease at Ekka Kotebe COVID-19 treatment center in Addis Ababa, the largest hospital dedicated to COVID-19 patient care in Ethiopia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We retrospectively collected and analysed clinical and cost data on patients admitted to Ekka Kotebe with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections. Cost data included personnel time and salaries, drugs, medical supplies and equipment, facility utilities, and capital costs. Facility medical records were reviewed to assess the average duration of stay by disease severity (either moderate, severe, or critical). The data collected covered the time-period March-November 2020. We then estimated the cost per treated COVID-19 episode, stratified by disease severity, from the perspective of the provider. Over the study period there were 2,543 COVID-19 cases treated at Ekka Kotebe, of which, 235 were critical, 515 were severe, and 1,841 were moderate. The mean patient duration of stay varied from 9.2 days (95% CI: 7.6-10.9; for moderate cases) to 19.2 days (17.9-20.6; for critical cases). The mean cost per treated episode was USD 1,473 (95% CI: 1,197-1,750), but cost varied by disease severity: the mean cost for moderate, severe, and critical cases were USD 1,266 (998-1,534), USD 1,545 (1,413-1,677), and USD 2,637 (1,788-3,486), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical management and treatment of COVID-19 patients poses an enormous economic burden to the Ethiopian health system. Such estimates of COVID-19 treatment costs inform financial implications for resource-constrained health systems and reinforce the urgency of implementing effective infection prevention and control policies, including the rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, in low-income countries like Ethiopia.

Cost-analysis of COVID-19 sample collection, diagnosis, and contact tracing in low resource setting: The case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has been responding to the COVID-19 pandemic through a combination of interventions, including non-pharmaceutical interventions, quarantine, testing, isolation, contact tracing, and clinical management. Estimating the resources consumed for COVID-19 prevention and control could inform efficient decision-making for epidemic/pandemic-prone diseases in the future. This study aims to estimate the unit cost of COVID-19 sample collection, laboratory diagnosis, and contact tracing in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: Primary and secondary data were collected to estimate the costs of COVID-19 sample collection, diagnosis, and contact tracing. A healthcare system perspective was used. We used a combination of micro-costing (bottom-up) and top-down approaches to estimate resources consumed and the unit costs of the interventions. We used available cost and outcome data between May and December 2020. The costs were classified into capital and recurrent inputs to estimate unit and total costs. We identified the cost drivers of the interventions. We reported the cost for the following outcome measures: (1) cost per sample collected, (2) cost per laboratory diagnosis, (3) cost per sample collected and laboratory diagnosis, (4) cost per contact traced, and (5) cost per COVID-19 positive test identified. We conducted one-way sensitivity analysis by varying the input parameters. All costs were reported in US dollars (USD). RESULTS: The unit cost per sample collected was USD 1.33. The unit cost of tracing a contact of an index case was USD 0.66. The unit cost of COVID-19 diagnosis, excluding the cost for sample collection was USD 3.91. The unit cost of sample collection per COVID-19 positive individual was USD 11.63. The unit cost for COVID-19 positive test through contact tracing was USD 54.00. The unit cost COVID-19 DNA PCR diagnosis for identifying COVID-19 positive individuals, excluding the sample collection and transport cost, was USD 37.70. The cost per COVID-19 positive case identified was USD 49.33 including both sample collection and laboratory diagnosis costs. Among the cost drivers, personnel cost (salary and food cost) takes the highest share for all interventions, ranging from 51-76% of the total cost. CONCLUSION: The costs of sample collection, diagnosis, and contact tracing for COVID-19 were high given the low per capita health expenditure in Ethiopia and other low-income settings. Since the personnel cost accounts for the highest cost, decision-makers should focus on minimizing this cost when faced with pandemic-prone diseases by strengthening the health system and using digital platforms. The findings of this study can help decision-makers prioritize and allocate resources for effective public health emergency response.

Economic evaluations of health system strengthening activities in low-income and middle-income country settings: a methodological systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Health system strengthening (HSS) activities should accompany disease-targeting interventions in low/middle-income countries (LMICs). Economic evaluations provide information on how these types of investment might best be balanced but can be challenging. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate how researchers address these economic evaluation challenges. METHODS: We identified studies about economic evaluation of HSS activities in LMICs using a two-stage approach. First, we conducted a broad search to identify areas where economic evaluations of HSS activities were being conducted. Next, we selected specific interventions for more targeted literature review. We extracted study characteristics using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. Finally, we summarised authors' modelling decisions using a framework that examines how models are developed to emphasise generalisability, precision, or realism. FINDINGS: Our searches produced 1978 studies, out of which we included 36. Most studies used data from prospective trials and calculated cost-effectiveness directly from these trial inputs, rather than using simulation methods. As a group, these studies primarily emphasised precision and realism over generalisability, meaning that their results were best suited to specific settings. CONCLUSIONS: The number of included studies was small. Our findings suggest that most economic evaluations of HSS do not leverage methods like sensitivity analyses or inputs from literature review that would produce more generalisable (but potentially less precise) results. More research into how decision-makers would use economic evaluations to define the expansion path to strengthening health systems would allow for conceptualising impactful work on the economic value of HSS.

Effects of climatic factors on COVID-19 transmission in Ethiopia.

Climatic conditions play a key role in the transmission and pathophysiology of respiratory tract infections, either directly or indirectly. However, their impact on the COVID-19 pandemic propagation is yet to be studied. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed on the number of daily COVID-19 cases in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Data on confirmed COVID-19 cases were obtained from the National Data Management Center at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute for the period 10th March 2020 to 31st October 2021. Data for climatic factors were obtained from the Ethiopia National Meteorology Agency. The correlation between daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and climatic factors was measured using the Spearman rank correlation test. The log-link negative binomial regression model was used to fit the effect of climatic factors on COVID-19 transmission, from lag 0 to lag 14 days. During the study period, a total of 245,101 COVID-19 cases were recorded in Addis Ababa, with a median of 337 new cases per day and a maximum of 1903 instances per day. A significant correlation between COVID-19 cases and humidity was observed with a 1% increase in relative humidity associated with a 1.1% [IRRs (95%CI) 0.989, 95% (0.97-0.99)] and 1.2% [IRRs (95%CI) 0.988, (0.97-0.99)] decrease in COVID-19 cases for 4 and 5 lag days prior to detection, respectively. The highest increase in the effect of wind speed and rainfall on COVID-19 was observed at 14 lag days prior to detection with IRRs of 1.85 (95%CI 1.26-2.74) and 1.078 (95%CI 1.04-1.12), respectively. The lowest IRR was 1.109 (95%CI 0.93-1.31) and 1.007 (95%CI 0.99-1.02) both in lag 0, respectively. The findings revealed that none of the climatic variables influenced the number of COVID-19 cases on the day of case detection (lag 0), and that daily average temperature and sunshine duration were not significantly linked with COVID-19 risk across the full lag period (p > 0.05). Climatic factors such as humidity, rainfall, and wind speed influence the transmission of COVID-19 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. COVID-19 cases have shown seasonal variations with the highest number of cases reported during the rainy season and the lowest number of cases reported during the dry season. These findings suggest the need to design strategies for the prevention and control of COVID-19 before the rainy seasons.

Modeling the relative risk of incidence and mortality of select vaccine-preventable diseases by wealth group and geographic region in Ethiopia.

Immunization is one of the most effective public health interventions, saving millions of lives every year. Ethiopia has seen gradual improvements in immunization coverage and access to child health care services; however, inequalities in child mortality across wealth quintiles and regions remain persistent. We model the relative distributional incidence and mortality of four vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) (rotavirus diarrhea, human papillomavirus, measles, and pneumonia) by wealth quintile and geographic region in Ethiopia. Our approach significantly extends an earlier methodology, which utilizes the population attributable fraction and differences in the prevalence of risk and prognostic factors by population subgroup to estimate the relative distribution of VPD incidence and mortality. We use a linear system of equations to estimate the joint distribution of risk and prognostic factors in population subgroups, treating each possible combination of risk or prognostic factors as computationally distinct, thereby allowing us to account for individuals with multiple risk factors. Across all modeling scenarios, our analysis found that the poor and those living in rural and primarily pastoralist or agrarian regions have a greater risk than the rich and those living in urban regions of becoming infected with or dying from a VPD. While in absolute terms all population subgroups benefit from health interventions (e.g., vaccination and treatment), current unequal levels and pro-rich gradients of vaccination and treatment-seeking patterns should be redressed so to significantly improve health equity across wealth quintiles and geographic regions in Ethiopia.

Applying the theory of planned behaviour to explain HIV testing in antenatal settings in Addis Ababa - a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To facilitate access to the prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) services, HIV counselling and testing are offered routinely in antenatal care settings. Focusing a cohort of pregnant women attending public and private antenatal care facilities, this study applied an extended version of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to explain intended- and actual HIV testing. METHODS: A sequential exploratory mixed methods study was conducted in Addis Ababa in 2009. The study involved first time antenatal attendees from public- and private health care facilities. Three Focus Group Discussions were conducted to inform the TPB questionnaire. A total of 3033 women completed the baseline TPB interviews, including attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control and intention with respect to HIV testing, whereas 2928 completed actual HIV testing at follow up. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square tests, Fisher's Exact tests, Internal consistency reliability, Pearson's correlation, Linear regression, Logistic regression and using Epidemiological indices. P-values < 0.05 was considered significant and 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was used for the odds ratio. RESULTS: The TPB explained 9.2% and 16.4% of the variance in intention among public- and private health facility attendees. Intention and perceived barriers explained 2.4% and external variables explained 7% of the total variance in HIV testing. Positive and negative predictive values of intention were 96% and 6% respectively. Across both groups, subjective norm explained a substantial amount of variance in intention, followed by attitudes. Women intended to test for HIV if they perceived social support and anticipated positive consequences following test performance. Type of counselling did not modify the link between intended and actual HIV testing. CONCLUSION: The TPB explained substantial amount of variance in intention to test but was less sufficient in explaining actual HIV testing. This low explanatory power of TPB was mainly due to the large proportion of low intenders that ended up being tested contrary to their intention before entering the antenatal clinic. PMTCT programs should strengthen women's intention through social approval and information that testing will provide positive consequences for them. However, women's rights to opt-out should be emphasized in any attempt to improve the PMTCT programs.

The burden of cardiovascular diseases in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2017: evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

In Ethiopia, evidence on the national burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is limited. To address this gap, this systematic analysis estimated the burden of CVDs in Ethiopia using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study data. The age-standardized CVD prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates in Ethiopia were 5534 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5310.09 - 5774.0), 3549.6 (95% UI 3229.0 - 3911.9) and 182.63 (95% UI 165.49 - 203.9) per 100 000 population, respectively. Compared with 1990, the age-standardized CVD prevalence rate in 2017 showed no change. But significant reductions were observed in CVD mortality (54.7%), CVD DALYs (57.7%) and all-cause mortality (53.4%). The top three prevalent CVDs were ischaemic heart disease, rheumatic heart disease and stroke in descending order. The reduction in the mortality rate due to CVDs is slower than for communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional disease mortalities. As a result, CVDs are the leading cause of mortality in Ethiopia. These findings urge Ethiopia to consider CVDs as a priority public health problem.

Improving National Intelligence for Public Health Preparedness: a methodological approach to finding local multi-sector indicators for health security.

The COVID-19 epidemic is the latest evidence of critical gaps in our collective ability to monitor country-level preparedness for health emergencies. The global frameworks that exist to strengthen core public health capacities lack coverage of several preparedness domains and do not provide mechanisms to interface with local intelligence. We designed and piloted a process, in collaboration with three National Public Health Institutes (NPHIs) in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Pakistan, to identify potential preparedness indicators that exist in a myriad of frameworks and tools in varying local institutions. Following a desk-based systematic search and expert consultations, indicators were extracted from existing national and subnational health security-relevant frameworks and prioritised in a multi-stakeholder two-round Delphi process. Eighty-six indicators in Ethiopia, 87 indicators in Nigeria and 51 indicators in Pakistan were assessed to be valid, relevant and feasible. From these, 14-16 indicators were prioritised in each of the three countries for consideration in monitoring and evaluation tools. Priority indicators consistently included private sector metrics, subnational capacities, availability and capacity for electronic surveillance, measures of timeliness for routine reporting, data quality scores and data related to internally displaced persons and returnees. NPHIs play an increasingly central role in health security and must have access to data needed to identify and respond rapidly to public health threats. Collecting and collating local sources of information may prove essential to addressing gaps; it is a necessary step towards improving preparedness and strengthening international health regulations compliance.

The COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare systems in Africa: a scoping review of preparedness, impact and response.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems in both developed and developing nations alike. Africa has one of the weakest health systems globally, but there is limited evidence on how the region is prepared for, impacted by and responded to the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL to search peer-reviewed articles and Google, Google Scholar and preprint sites for grey literature. The scoping review captured studies on either preparedness or impacts or responses associated with COVID-19 or covering one or more of the three topics and guided by Arksey and O'Malley's methodological framework. The extracted information was documented following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension checklist for scoping reviews. Finally, the resulting data were thematically analysed. RESULTS: Twenty-two eligible studies, of which 6 reported on health system preparedness, 19 described the impacts of COVID-19 on access to general and essential health services and 7 focused on responses taken by the healthcare systems were included. The main setbacks in health system preparation included lack of available health services needed for the pandemic, inadequate resources and equipment, and limited testing ability and surge capacity for COVID-19. Reduced flow of patients and missing scheduled appointments were among the most common impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health system responses identified in this review included the availability of telephone consultations, re-purposing of available services and establishment of isolation centres, and provisions of COVID-19 guidelines in some settings. CONCLUSIONS: The health systems in Africa were inadequately prepared for the pandemic, and its impact was substantial. Responses were slow and did not match the magnitude of the problem. Interventions that will improve and strengthen health system resilience and financing through local, national and global engagement should be prioritised.

COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. METHODS: Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km. RESULTS: This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country's border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited. CONCLUSION: This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.